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Outlook for Wednesday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030550

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern to central High Plains and from the Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will dig southeast across the northern Rockies before reaching the north-central High Plains by early Thursday. As this occurs, a lee surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. A convectively modified cold front will shift east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes to the Ozarks. This front will remain quasi-stationary into the southern TX Panhandle, with the most prominent temperature gradient from here through northern OK owing to pronounced differential heating across OK to KS.

Central to northern High Plains

To the north of the southern Great Plains baroclinic zone, predominantly southeasterly low-level flow will attempt to advect richer moisture from southern/eastern KS. However, most 00Z models suggest increasing widespread convection from the TX/OK Panhandle into KS this morning amid low-level warm theta-e advection. This overturning will likely slow the northwestward moisture return. In addition, pervasive cloudiness will limit boundary-layer destabilization over the lower plains. These factors yield a probable confined plume of appreciable buoyancy and uncertainty over the amplitude of the peak buoyancy over the central High Plains.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the lee trough towards late afternoon, seemingly most probable from northeast CO to south of the Black Hills. An additional area/round of storms should also form farther northwest into northeast WY, ahead of the mid-level DCVA attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Relatively modest low-level flow in conjunction with moderate to strong speed shear above 700 mb will yield moderate hodograph elongation. This should support widely spaced supercells capable of large to very large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Broken upscale growth with amalgamating convective outflows will probably occur during the early to mid-evening, which should yield a threat for isolated wind gusts of 70-80 mph. With potential for convection to spread relatively quickly into a cooler downstream boundary layer, confidence is too low to warrant a level 3-ENH threat this cycle.

Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the weaker portion of the frontal zone during the latter half of the afternoon, aided in part by remnant MCVs from ongoing/forecast convection this morning. Along the fringe of modest mid-level southwesterlies, roughly parallel to the weak front, multicell clustering is anticipated. A threat for strong to localized severe gusts may be sufficient for potentially scattered wind damage.

..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/03/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 3: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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