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Outlook for Friday, July 5

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030742

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday.

Synopsis

A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic.

Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity

Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures.

Mid-Atlantic

Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 3: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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