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Outlook for Saturday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010906 SPC AC 010906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday Central Plains and Lower/Middle MO Valley

Guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, should set up across Missouri, southern Iowa, and southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas. The potential impacts of convection lingering from Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally regarding the north-northeast extent of the more appreciable severe risk, but the aforementioned areas seemingly have the highest severe potential.

Day 5/Friday Midwest

While modest predictability precludes a 15+ percent severe risk at this juncture, it seems probable that severe potential will be focused within a moist and unstable air mass near/ahead of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. This may be most focused across the Ohio Valley and other parts of the Midwest/Lake Erie vicinity, with damaging winds expected to be the most common severe hazard.

Days 6-8 Saturday-Monday

Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley, and probably parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States on Day 6/Saturday.

..Guyer.. 07/01/2024

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 1: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, July 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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