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Outlook for Monday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030839 SPC AC 030839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Mid-Atlantic

For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover.

Central/southern High Plains

With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains.

South Texas

As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 3: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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