Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, September 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190856 SPC AC 190856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Some severe potential is evident on both D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. But both regimes appear to be focused on the mesoscale, rendering insufficient predictability at this time frame for a 15 percent highlight. A combination of both low predictability and potential is apparent mid-week next week.

A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress from the Southwest into the central Great Plains on D4. A confined belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies overspreading a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture just ahead of an attendant weak surface cyclone may yield a severe-storm threat on Sunday afternoon. Per consensus of latest guidance, the most favored area could be centered around the Lower MO Valley. This shortwave trough may continue northeastward towards the Upper MS Valley into D5. Guidance spread increases with the degree of forward speed, along with potential weakening of the flow fields surrounding the trough. Still, a similar setup may occur on Monday in parts of the Midwest, centered on the southwest Great Lakes region. Mid-level lapse rates on both days are uniformly depicted to be weak, suggestive of lower-end severe potential.

..Grams.. 09/19/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, September 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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