Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200731 SPC AC 200731

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Th latest suite of forecast guidance continues to show large spread during the Day 4-8/Mon-Fri period. While the evolution of a central U.S. upper trough is uncertain, it seems likely general troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will develop. Some severe potential could develop around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front advances east into a seasonally moist airmass amid moderately enhanced mid/upper flow. Severe potential should decrease late in the forecast period as the surface trough moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and surface high pressure builds across the Midwest.

..Leitman.. 09/20/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, September 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, September 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, September 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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