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Outlook for Tuesday, October 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151930

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

20z Update

The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight.

Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage.

..Lyons.. 10/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/

A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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