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Outlook for Thursday, October 17

Outlook Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151919

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday.

Synopsis

An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast.

Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone.

Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona

Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 10/15/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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