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Outlook for Thursday, November 21

Outlook Summary

A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England Thursday morning.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210518

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England Thursday morning.

Southern New England

Strong upper low will shift southeast from the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage low-level warm advection across southern New England as a surface low repositions itself off the middle Atlantic coast, south of Long Island. Forecast soundings suggest weak elevated buoyancy will develop north of this boundary as mid-level lapse rates will steepen as 500mb temperatures cool in advance of the approaching trough. Strongest elevated updrafts may exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge, but this should mainly be prior to 18z. Thereafter, deepest convection will focus offshore.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/21/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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