Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, November 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200905 SPC AC 200905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.

Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.

..Jewell.. 11/20/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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