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Outlook for Wednesday, December 11

Outlook Summary

Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120048

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible.

01Z Update

### Atlantic Seaboard

Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream. Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England coastal areas, the narrow corridor of pre-frontal destabilization is very weak and based above a stable near-surface layer, but guidance suggests that some lightning remains possible until the cold front clears the Cape Cod and Down East Maine vicinities overnight.

Lower Great Lakes

Otherwise, to the southwest of the deepening cyclone migrating northward across eastern Quebec, convection allowing model output indicates that at least a couple of longer-lived bands of low-topped convection will develop across the lower Great Lakes beneath cooling, cyclonic lower/mid-tropospheric flow. It appears that this will include one near southeastern Lake Erie coastal areas by late this evening and another across/east of Lake Ontario overnight. However, the potential for sustained convection capable of producing lightning still appears negligible (less than 10 percent).

..Kerr.. 12/12/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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