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Outlook for Thursday, December 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111706

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday.

Discussion

A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent.

An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night.

A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg.

..Grams.. 12/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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