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Outlook for Friday, December 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111902

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

Discussion

A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts.

..Grams.. 12/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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