Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, December 17

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110948 SPC AC 110948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability.

Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday.

The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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