Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, December 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210922 SPC AC 210922

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.

An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, December 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, December 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, December 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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