Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261010 SPC AC 261010

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties.

Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low.

..Guyer.. 12/26/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, December 26: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, December 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, December 29: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 30: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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