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Outlook for Monday, January 6

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020916 SPC AC 020916

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well.

Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat.

From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 01/02/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, January 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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