Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, January 10

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060947 SPC AC 060947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms.

..Broyles.. 01/06/2025

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National Risk Overview

Monday, January 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, January 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 8: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, January 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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