Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, January 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070945 SPC AC 070945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be unlikely.

..Broyles.. 01/07/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, January 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, January 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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