Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, January 18

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110851 SPC AC 110851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 01/11/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, January 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, January 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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