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Outlook for Thursday, January 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230817 SPC AC 230817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north.

Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.

..Jewell.. 01/23/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, January 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, January 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 28: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 29: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 30: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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