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Outlook for Friday, February 21

Outlook Summary

The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211956

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight.

20Z Update

A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast.

..Dean.. 02/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/

An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, February 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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