Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, March 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 26	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 27	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, February 28	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, March 1	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, March 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230933 SPC AC 230933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability.

..Bentley.. 02/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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