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Outlook for Monday, March 10

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081833

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.

Discussion

An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low – expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period – will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period.

Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 03/08/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, March 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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