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Outlook for Wednesday, March 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 11	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, March 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080919 SPC AC 080919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity

Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities.

Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast

Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, March 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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