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Outlook for Saturday, March 15

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, March 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, March 14	15%
Day 7	Saturday, March 15	15%
Day 8	Sunday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090835 SPC AC 090835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity

A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity

A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning.

Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well).

Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity

While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass.

Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity

An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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