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Outlook for Monday, March 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, March 15	30%
Day 5	Sunday, March 16	15%
Day 6	Monday, March 17	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, March 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120845 SPC AC 120845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT

### DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley

A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks.

With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases.

Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic

A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, March 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Saturday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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