Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, March 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 16	15%
Day 5	Monday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 18	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130832 SPC AC 130832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.

A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward.

Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys

Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/13/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 14: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Saturday, March 15: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Sunday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Risks for this location

Friday, Mar 14 TORNADO low HAIL low WIND low
Saturday, Mar 15 TORNADO 2% HAIL 15% WIND 15%
Sunday, Mar 16 ANY SEVERE low
Monday, Mar 17 ANY SEVERE low
Tuesday, Mar 18 ANY SEVERE low
Wednesday, Mar 19 ANY SEVERE low
Thursday, Mar 20 ANY SEVERE low

Severe Weather Definitions

Tornado: Any size tornado is considered severe.
Wind: Winds 58 mph and greater.
Hail: 1" and larger hail.
"Any Severe": For outlooks for days 3-8, it could mean a threat of any or all of the following: wind, hail, or tornadoes.

For black colored risks that means there is an enhanced threat of significant severe weather. Depending on the threat, this could mean 75 mph and greater winds, 2" and larger hail, or EF2 and stronger tornadoes.

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