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Outlook for Sunday, March 30

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 45%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301621

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong.

Synopsis

Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development.

Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes

Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection.

The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.

Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast

Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells.

It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night.

Florida Peninsula

A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds.

..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 30: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Monday, March 31: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, April 1: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 2: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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