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Outlook for Monday, March 31

Outlook Summary

Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300607

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA…GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

Strong/severe thunderstorms – with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes – are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area

An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms – likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk – are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area – where CAPE should remain modest – will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 30: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Monday, March 31: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, April 1: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 2: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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