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Outlook for Wednesday, April 2

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, April 1	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, April 2	30%
Day 6	Thursday, April 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, April 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290902 SPC AC 290902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus – in general – depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear.

One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required.

Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. – each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time.

..Goss.. 03/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 30: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Monday, March 31: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, April 1: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 2: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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