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Outlook for Thursday, April 3

Outlook Summary

A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area.

Red River to the Mid MS Valley

Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist.

An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK.

OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic

As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 1: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, April 2: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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