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Outlook for Friday, April 4

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, April 4	15%
Day 5	Saturday, April 5	15%
Day 6	Sunday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, April 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010857 SPC AC 010857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days.

Day4/Friday

The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential.

Day5/Saturday

The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night.

Day6-8

The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 1: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 2: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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