A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

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Outlook for Sunday, April 6

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 5	30%
Day 5	Sunday, April 6	15%
Day 6	Monday, April 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 8	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 9	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020900 SPC AC 020900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level flow pattern will undergo significant amplification over the next several days as a large western US trough begins to move eastward. Very rich moisture will support widespread thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southeast and eastern US through the weekend.

D4/Saturday Mid South

The upper low over northern Mexico will continue to amplify as it begins ejecting eastward across the lower and mid MS Valley. A strong 100+ kt jet will move east of the trough and overspread a relatively broad warm sector across the Sabine and MS Valleys into parts of TN/KY. Unseasonably rich moisture from several days of southerly flow will be in place ahead of a surface low and cold front. One or more rounds of severe storms, including supercells, appears likely from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS through the day. All hazards will be possible. Storms should eventually grow upscale into a line or cluster and spread eastward overnight into parts of AL, FL, and GA.

The northern bound of the risk area across the TN Valley and into the OH valley appears somewhat conditional. Multiple preceding days of storms may limit the northern extent of the deeper moisture and buoyancy. However, some severe risk likely exists given the intensity of the low-level jet and abundance of moisture.

Day 5

The severe threat is likely to carry over from Day 4 in the form of a squall line, as the upper wave gradually devolves into a broader positive-tilt trough. Strong mid-level flow and ascent will persist over a broadening warm sector across the Southeast. While lapse rates appear weak from several days of convection, some severe risk is possible. The intensity of the severe risk will be heavily dependent on the convective evolution from the prior day 4 which is very unclear at the moment. Will add a 15% area across parts of AL, FL, GA and SC where the best overlap of mid-level flow and robust moisture are expected to support potential for damaging gusts.

A severe risk may also develop across parts of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic Day5/Sunday. As the upper wave lifts to the north, ascent will overspread returning surface moisture as far north as southern PA. It is unclear how much buoyancy will be present with the potential for widespread clouds. However, strong flow fields will be available to any convection that can develop.

D6+

Offshore flow and high pressure will begin to dominate the extended period as mid-level ridging intensifies over the center of the country. Much cooler and stable conditions behind the advancing cold front appear likely to temporarily end broader potential for severe storms through early next week.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 2: TORNADO: 30%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, April 3: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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