Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes.

Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, April 8	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040822 SPC AC 040822

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5

On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday.

On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, April 4: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, April 5: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Risks for this location

Friday, Apr 4 TORNADO low HAIL low WIND low
Saturday, Apr 5 TORNADO low HAIL low WIND low
Sunday, Apr 6 ANY SEVERE low
Monday, Apr 7 ANY SEVERE low
Tuesday, Apr 8 ANY SEVERE low
Wednesday, Apr 9 ANY SEVERE low
Thursday, Apr 10 ANY SEVERE low
Friday, Apr 11 ANY SEVERE low

Severe Weather Definitions

Tornado: Any size tornado is considered severe.
Wind: Winds 58 mph and greater.
Hail: 1" and larger hail.
"Any Severe": For outlooks for days 3-8, it could mean a threat of any or all of the following: wind, hail, or tornadoes.

For black colored risks that means there is an enhanced threat of significant severe weather. Depending on the threat, this could mean 75 mph and greater winds, 2" and larger hail, or EF2 and stronger tornadoes.

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