Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Friday, April 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, April 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, April 12	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, April 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, April 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, April 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080837 SPC AC 080837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

On Day 4/Friday, an amplified large-scale trough will move slowly eastward across the Appalachians. Ahead of a related surface low in the lee of the Appalachians, weakly modified boundary-layer moisture will be in place across the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. While instability will be marginal, owing to the limited moisture and poor lapse rates, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow may support a couple strong storms during the afternoon. The overall severe threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time.

By Day 6/Sunday, a midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northern/central Plains, while an elongated downstream surface trough (with embedded surface lows) promotes partially modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains and MS Valley. Despite multiple surface boundaries across the Plains, current indications are that a strong EML and related capping atop the limited boundary-layer moisture should inhibit surface-based thunderstorm potential.

Thereafter, medium-range guidance varies considerably regarding the timing and evolution of the aforementioned midlevel trough and associated warm sector – limiting confidence in severe-storm potential for Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday.

..Weinman.. 04/08/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, April 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.