Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, April 14

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, April 13	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, April 14	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, April 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, April 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, April 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100833 SPC AC 100833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Primary feature of interest will be a shortwave trough over MT at 12Z Sunday and its major amplification into a broad eastern CONUS/southeast Canadian trough through mid-week. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will improve through D5/Monday. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should reach the OH Valley by Monday afternoon, where guidance has been trending farther south with an intense mid-level jet. Given a prior EML and the deep surface cyclone tracking over Lake Superior to central ON vicinity, convective coverage may be limited along the trailing cold front. Still, consensus of guidance suggests that some fast-moving convection should accompany the portion of the front in the OH Valley vicinity. Robust 700-500 mb wind profiles should offer at least a threat for damaging winds.

Depending upon timing of frontal passage, a limited-area severe threat may exist on D6/Tuesday along the Southeast Atlantic coast. A compact southern-stream shortwave impulse, approaching the backside of the broad east CONUS trough, indicates low-probability severe potential over the southern Great Plains on D7/Wednesday into the western Gulf Coast vicinity D8/Thursday.

..Grams.. 04/10/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, April 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Risks for this location

Thursday, Apr 10 TORNADO low HAIL low WIND low
Friday, Apr 11 TORNADO low HAIL low WIND low
Saturday, Apr 12 ANY SEVERE low
Sunday, Apr 13 ANY SEVERE low
Monday, Apr 14 ANY SEVERE low
Tuesday, Apr 15 ANY SEVERE low
Wednesday, Apr 16 ANY SEVERE low
Thursday, Apr 17 ANY SEVERE low

Severe Weather Definitions

Tornado: Any size tornado is considered severe.
Wind: Winds 58 mph and greater.
Hail: 1" and larger hail.
"Any Severe": For outlooks for days 3-8, it could mean a threat of any or all of the following: wind, hail, or tornadoes.

For black colored risks that means there is an enhanced threat of significant severe weather. Depending on the threat, this could mean 75 mph and greater winds, 2" and larger hail, or EF2 and stronger tornadoes.

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