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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, December 25
Friday, December 26
Saturday, December 27
Sunday, December 28
Monday, December 29
Tuesday, December 30
Wednesday, December 31
Thursday, January 1

Outlook for Thursday, December 25

Outlook Summary

The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of the Central and Northern Valleys.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260026

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of the Central and Northern Valleys.

Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk.

For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.

..Jewell.. 12/26/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, December 26

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night.

Synopsis

A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West, as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe potential.

Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic

A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

..Lyons.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Saturday, December 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night.

Synopsis

Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential appears negligible.

..Lyons.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Sunday, December 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 6 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low
Day 7 Wednesday, December 31 potential too low
Day 8 Thursday, January 1 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, December 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 6 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low
Day 7 Wednesday, December 31 potential too low
Day 8 Thursday, January 1 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, December 30

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 6 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low
Day 7 Wednesday, December 31 potential too low
Day 8 Thursday, January 1 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, December 31

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 6 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low
Day 7 Wednesday, December 31 potential too low
Day 8 Thursday, January 1 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, January 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 6 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low
Day 7 Wednesday, December 31 potential too low
Day 8 Thursday, January 1 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, December 25
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Friday, December 26
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, December 27
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 28
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 29
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 30
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 31
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 1
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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