Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south and central Florida this evening, but no severe threat is forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290051
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south and central Florida this evening, but no severe threat is forecast.
DISCUSSION
West to northwest mid-level flow will continue across most of the U.S. this evening. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through central Florida. A moist airmass is present to the south of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Low-level convergence will be enough for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. However, instability will remain very weak, limiting any potential for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight.
..Broyles.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Arizona and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281751
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Arizona and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A zonal flow regime will exist across the CONUS on Sunday, with the main upper jet situated across the northern States. Areas of cooler air aloft will exist from Baja CA and extending into parts of the Southwest, with warmer air aloft across the Gulf Coast.
At the surface, a prominent area of high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic, with ridge extending across the southeastern states and into the northern Gulf. A surface trough will develop across the High Plains, with early cycle moisture return across the Plains.
Thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of southern AZ during the late afternoon as heating, steep lapse rates aloft and increasing low-level moisture support marginal instability in a weak shear environment. Locally gusty winds are likely with storms over southern AZ.
Elsewhere, a deep easterly low-level flow regime will exist across FL, and although midlevel lapse rates will be poor, heating along with deep moisture through 700 mb may support isolated thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Discussion
A progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Monday into Tuesday morning, with cooling aloft spreading into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes late. Ahead of this feature, low pressure will develop over the northern Plains during the day, translating east across IA and toward WI overnight and into Tuesday morning.
East of the developing low, a quasi-stationary front will extend across southern MN into central WI and northern Lower MI, with little northward progress. Southerly winds across the warm sector will persist through the period and bring mid 50s F dewpoints northward toward the surface front. Much of the day looks to be capped, but increasing lift after 00Z along with persistent moistening from the southwest will result in elevated instability, possibly extending as far northern WI/Lower MI. Deep-layer shear will favor hail.
A conditional risk of a few severe storms may also develop south of the boundary from eastern IA into northern IL as the low-level jet increases during the evening. In addition to hail, the warm/dry sub-cloud layer would favor potential damaging gusts with any cluster of storms.
..Jewell.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of strong/severe thunderstorms.
D4/Tuesday
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection (e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests that even though some severe threat will likely materialize, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the convective environment.
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet, widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the stalled front each afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, March 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, March 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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