Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 182000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST…AND ALSO ACROSS COASTAL NC
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur through this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
MS/OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast
The primary changes to the Marginal Risk have been to clear areas behind the low-topped convective line and cold front, and to expand northeastward somewhat based on where recent HRRR/RRFS guidance maintains a low-topped but well-defined frontal band with potential for localized strong/damaging gusts.
A line of low-topped convection has developed along a cold front and is moving eastward across parts of IL and southeast MO this afternoon. Despite very weak to negligible buoyancy, very strong low-level flow/shear (with 50+ kt at 1 km AGL per regional VWPs) has supported occasional gusts of 40-55 mph and isolated wind-damage reports along this line. Forcing related to a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across the region will help to sustain a low-topped frontal band into this evening, which may be capable of producing sporadic strong/damaging gusts into parts of the Ohio Valley.
Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that gusty winds associated with the frontal band may spread across parts of the Allegheny Plateau overnight, but with essentially nil buoyancy expected in this area, confidence is currently too low to expand wind probabilities into this area.
Farther south into parts of TN/MS/AL, somewhat greater (though still weak) buoyancy will be in place later this afternoon into the early evening, as 60s F dewpoints spread northward to near the TN/MS/AL border region. A broken band of storms may develop in advance of the front, with potential for at least marginal supercell structures and an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado. Any longer-lived cells may tend to merge into the eastward-moving frontal band with time, with at least an isolated severe threat spreading east across TN through the evening.
Coastal NC
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across coastal NC. See the previous discussion below for more information.
FL Panhandle vicinity
Cells with occasional rotation have been noted offshore of the FL Panhandle this afternoon, though temperatures remain relatively cool with widespread cloudiness inland. There is some potential for a stronger cell or two to eventually approach the coast or develop slightly inland, but lingering near-surface stability may tend to limit the severe threat across this area.
..Dean.. 12/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025/
Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast
A pronounced mid/upper-level shortwave trough with attendant 70-90 kt mid-level jet will advance quickly eastward today across the Upper Midwest into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. An associated deep surface low over northern MN this morning is forecast to continue developing northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through tonight, with a trailing cold front forecast to sweep east-southeastward over much of the mid/lower MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast. Low-level moisture return ahead of the cold front remains quite limited, except for parts of MS/AL where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are beginning to spread inland. Even so, wind fields remain quite favorable for thunderstorm organization, with ample low-level and deep-layer shear present. Current expectations are for a low-topped line of convection to further develop along the cold front through this afternoon/evening. Although instability is expected to remain minimal with northward extent into the OH/TN Valleys, there is still potential for strong to severe gusts that will be convectively enhanced beyond the already strong background gradient wind field. Some chance for a tornado may also exist across parts of MS/AL where greater instability/low-level moisture will reside. Given latest observational and guidance trends, a Marginal Risk has been included where the best potential for occasional strong to damaging winds is apparent.
Coastal North Carolina
Isolated strong to locally severe convection may occur late tonight through early Friday morning as an increasingly negative-tilt mid-level trough and a related robust strengthening of the deep-layer wind field approach eastern NC. The gradual modification and erosion of continental/cold air is a key uncertainty due to persistent surface high pressure along the East Coast into western Atlantic. Some guidance such as the 12Z NAM may be a bit too aggressive regarding late-night near-surface-based destabilization. Still, the main area of concern is for the immediate NC coastal areas/Outer Banks, where somewhat greater airmass modification/low-level moistening should occur amid strong low-level and deep-layer shear. If surface-based thunderstorms can form and spread northeastward across this area, they could pose a threat for isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. But, it is also possible that convectively enhanced wind gusts materialize inland (including Piedmont areas) in the predawn hours, although confidence in this occurring remains low.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night. Severe storms are not forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181714
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night. Severe storms are not forecast.
Synopsis and Discussion
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front, with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.
Northeast…Eastern VA and NC
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates aloft suggest minimal overall risk.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and northern California late Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181912
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and northern California late Saturday night.
Synopsis
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.
At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur, another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over coastal TX/LA should remain capped.
Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated lightning.
..Jewell.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.
..Bentley.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, December 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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