Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts and an isolated tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts and an isolated tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.
Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon, so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation). Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late afternoon and diminish by early tonight.
..Thompson/Halbert.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231744
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas on Saturday.
New Mexico and far west/southwest Texas
A low-latitude/southern-stream trough currently centered over southern California and the Great Basin will continue slowly eastward through Saturday primarily over the lower Colorado River valley and Arizona. Relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas with weak height falls overspreading a moist air mass, which will be enhanced by gradually strengthening south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2 km AGL.
Initial storm intensification including some severe risk could occur relatively early in the day across the Four Corners area and northern New Mexico, with somewhat later diurnally aided development across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed with height, will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs, including some modest low-level hodograph curvature attributable to strengthening low-level southeasterly winds. Large hail will be possible regionally, with larger hail magnitudes more probable in the greater instability reservoir across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Some tornado risk will exist as well given the aforementioned wind profiles and relatively moist environment. Strong mid-level flow and somewhat fast storm motions (35+ kt or so) could also yield locally damaging wind gusts.
..Guyer.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
New Mexico/west Texas.. It appears that Sunday will be an overall downtrend in terms of regional severe risk, but at least some severe risk is still expected mainly across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The persistent southern-stream trough over the Southwest will likely become more northeastward-progressive over the Four Corners while deamplifying/weakening toward the central/southern High Plains on Sunday.
Severe-conducive destabilization is expected particularly across south-central/southeast New Mexico and far west Texas Sunday afternoon, with greater uncertainty with north-northeastward extent due to the potential for lingering early day cloud cover and precipitation. Where adequate destabilization does occur, moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles (35-45 kt effective shear) will support organized storm modes including a few supercells. Current thinking is that large hail is the most probable severe risk, primarily Sunday afternoon and early evening.
..Guyer.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.
..Leitman.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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