Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Summary

Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially parts of the Great Lakes to Lower Missouri Valley and south-central Plains late this afternoon and early evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120551

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially parts of the Great Lakes to Lower Missouri Valley and south-central Plains late this afternoon and early evening.

Florida Peninsula

A front will settle southward today in advance of a low-latitude shortwave trough crossing the northeast Gulf. A moist and potentially unstable environment will exist during the afternoon, especially across the central Peninsula where MLCAPE could exceed 1500 J/kg, although early day clouds and convection near/south of the front leads to some uncertainty regarding destabilization details. Regardless, storms should steadily increase in coverage and intensity through late morning into the afternoon, initially across the north-central Peninsula, maximizing toward the east coast, although additional storms may move inland from the Gulf. Strengthening mid/high-level winds will support upwards of 30-40 kt effective shear and fairly long/semi-straight hodographs, which could yield some transient supercell structures pending sufficient destabilization. Damaging winds and hail will be possible at least on an isolated basis, and a tornado could occur as well, particularly near the effective front. A greater confidence in destabilization and the possibility of more sustained storms/supercells could warrant a Slight Risk upgrade.

Wisconsin/Lake Michigan to south-central Plains

A shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will dig southeastward and amplify toward the Upper Great Lakes through this evening, with a cold front moving southeastward across these regions. Low-level moisture will be limited near/ahead of the front, but advection may be sufficient to counteract mixing to allow surface dewpoints to reach the 50s F by late afternoon/early evening.

In tandem with the strongest forcing for ascent, and in vicinity of the surface low/front, isolated to widely scattered development is initially expected, and most probable, late in the afternoon/early evening across eastern Wisconsin, with additional storms possible farther southwest near the front across Illinois/Missouri and potentially into southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma. Where storms develop/sustain, steep lapse rates and strong west-northwesterly flow aloft could yield some severe storms capable of hail/damaging wind.

Western Oregon/southern Washington

A few stronger storms with gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail could develop late in the afternoon and evening regionally in advance an upper-level trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest. Strengthening deep-layer winds and steepening lapse rates could plausibly yield some stronger storms, although the potential for sustained/organized severe storms is currently expected to remain low.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in parts of western Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120539

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY…CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in parts of western Montana.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians

An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

Northern Rockies/Great Basin

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

North-central Oklahoma/Central Kansas/Far Southern Nebraska

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a shortwave trough passes through the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough over the southern and central Plains, low-level moisture advection will take place. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F over much of Oklahoma northward into central and northern Kansas. Along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. In the early evening, large-scale ascent will move across the central Plains, helping to weaken the cap for a few hours. If convective initiation can take place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, May 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, May 14

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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