Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
20z Update
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of southeastern AZ and southwestern NM where latest objective analysis suggests MLCAPE has increased to around 500 J/kg amid diurnal heating and mid-50s F surface dewpoints. While transient storm organization and a low-probability risk for marginally severe hail and/or locally strong gusts remain possible, the existing outlook has been maintained owing to the expectation for any severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage. See the discussion below for additional information.
..Chalmers.. 10/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026/
Southwest
Beneath a belt of 30-40-kt southwesterly flow aloft, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher terrain across parts of southeastern AZ into western NM this afternoon. Diurnal heating amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints will yield weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with around 35 kt of effective shear, may promote transient storm organization. While an isolated instance of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch in diameter) and/or locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated/limited today.
An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected late in the period across central/northern AZ as forcing for ascent strengthens within the exit region of a robust midlevel jet. While deep-layer shear will be increasing, most of this activity should remain elevated amid weak buoyancy – limiting the overall severe risk.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms including large hail and tornado risks are expected on Wednesday especially across Arizona and nearby parts of the Four Corners area and Lower Colorado River Valley. A localized severe risk may also exist along the coast of central/southern California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201754
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms including large hail and tornado risks are expected on Wednesday especially across Arizona and nearby parts of the Four Corners area and Lower Colorado River Valley. A localized severe risk may also exist along the coast of central/southern California.
Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley/Four Corners
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, including the potential for a full-period/multi-round of severe weather for some areas. A climatologically rare and a concerning/well-above-typical risk for severe storms is expected, potentially including all severe hazards with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.
Ahead of a prominent/deep upper trough approaching the California coast, this scenario is attributable to a notable strengthening of deep-layer winds (southwesterly above the boundary layer), along with relatively rich low/mid-level moisture. The severe risk should tend to peak in most areas during the afternoon and evening, but it should be noted that the severe risk, particularly for parts of central/northern Arizona, may persist well through the late-night hours of Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Broadly speaking, there is relatively high confidence that wind profiles, with elongated/semi-straight hodographs, combined with expected destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support sustained/splitting supercells with viable large hail potential particularly with rotating storms, including both right-moving and left-moving (generally moving northward) supercell-splitting components. Hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter may locally occur.
Forecast soundings imply that storms will be a bit higher based with south-southeastward extent across the desert floor, but lower temperature-dewpoint spreads farther north closer to/in the rim and more forested areas of central/northern Arizona, which also coincides where more of a southeasterly boundary layer wind component may exist, boosting low-level hodograph curvature/SRH and contributing to tornado potential particularly across interior central Arizona and a broader part of northern Arizona, and possibly even into nearby southeast Nevada and/or far southern Utah.
Coastal southern/central California
In closer proximity to the approaching upper low, the core of an 80 kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern California during the later half of the period (00-12Z late Wednesday and Thursday), resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect into coastal areas, while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the scant buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and brief/transient supercell modes possible. A few damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any stronger storm that can reach the shore, but near-coastal waterspout/brief tornado potential may also exist.
..Guyer.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona.
Arizona and Desert Southwest/Great Basin
A prominent/deep low-latitude upper trough off the coast of California will become more northeastward-progressive on Thursday as it moves inland toward the Lower Colorado River Valley. While some weakening of the deep-layer wind field may occur over time, wind profiles will nonetheless remain rather supportive of organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells and sustained multicells capable of hail and possibly some tornado risk, which may primarily focus the first part of the day. These wind profiles with long/semi-straight hodographs will support at least some severe potential even if instability is a bit muted by early day cloud cover and precipitation. It currently appears that parts of central into eastern Arizona will have the most-favorable severe-weather ingredients on Thursday, and the longest relative duration thereof, hence a categorical Slight Risk upgrade.
..Guyer.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200757 SPC AC 200757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will gradually de-amplify while ejecting into the central and northern Plains this weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely this weekend into early next week from the Desert Southwest into the Plains states. The best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms will be Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), when stronger forcing for ascent will coincide with better moisture/instability over the Desert Southwest. Thereafter, buoyancy and upper support will become increasingly decoupled with mid-level trough ejection into the Plains.
Through much of next week, increasingly positively tilted upper troughing over the eastern CONUS will yield a northwesterly upper flow regime across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A relatively cool and/or stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS, with no clear signal of an organized severe threat, as also supported by ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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