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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, February 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281945

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

20Z Update

Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite. This should continue to promote potential for additional thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See the previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 02/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/

Central/Southern Florida Peninsula

Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4 corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75 inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.

Oklahoma

Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity, although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong deep-layer shear.

Northern California

A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area, the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak instability.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281714

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California Sunday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A strong cyclone traversing eastern Canada this morning will be followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS tomorrow. A weak trailing cold front associated with the Canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south into the Southeast and southern Plains. Isentropic ascent over the frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of OK into southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR tomorrow afternoon and evening. Although the kinematic environment is conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe thunderstorm potential. There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally. However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.

Elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected within a residual frontal zone across the southern FL Peninsula where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in place. Along the West Coast, an upper-level trough pushing into northern CA and southern OR will support isolated thunderstorms as instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a fairly moist air mass.

..Moore.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281906

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies.

Synopsis

A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at 850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.

..Moore.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280952 SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms. Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run, suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the day into the evening. Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response, moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280952 SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms. Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run, suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the day into the evening. Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response, moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280952 SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms. Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run, suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the day into the evening. Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response, moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280952 SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms. Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run, suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the day into the evening. Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response, moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280952 SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms. Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run, suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the day into the evening. Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response, moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 28

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, March 1

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Monday, March 2

ANY SEVERE: low

Tuesday, March 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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