Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Monday, July 6

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Friday, July 10

Saturday, July 11

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Summary

Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 45%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041948

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail.

20Z Update

A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS.

Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region.

Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/

Mid Atlantic

A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms.

PA/NY into southern New England

A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.

..IL/IN

A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening.

KS/MO

An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

KS/OK/AR

In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening.

TX Panhandle

A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours.

Northeast CO

Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk.

MN/SD

Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041703

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

### SUMMARY

Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

Mid-Atlantic

A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region.

Southern Plains to TN Valley

An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary.

Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity.

Northern Rockies into North Dakota

West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening.

..Leitman.. 07/04/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041855

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA…AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains.

VA/NC vicinity

Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening.

Northern Plains into northwest MN

An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases.

..Leitman.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Sunday, July 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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