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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111955

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINA SHORELINE…AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the 20Z Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities from the TX Panhandle. Here, subsidence and stability persist, with MLCINH of at least -100 J/kg in place amid minimal low-level convergence or upper support to encourage diurnal thunderstorm development. However, a few nocturnal storms may form due to impinging convective outflow from OK. Elsewhere across the CONUS, only minor changes were made to the general thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/

Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast.

Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe threat across central OK.

Southern Arizona

With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80 mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111735

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS…PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA

CORRECTED FOR WORD USAGE

SUMMARY

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Portions of Carolinas into eastern Georgia

An upper-level trough will continue to slide eastward north of these regions. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across portions of the Carolinas, though winds will weaken with southwestward extent. A modest surface low is expected to develop along a stationary surface boundary. Scattered convection is possible during the afternoon within the very moist airmass south of the boundary. The most organized storms may exist along the boundary within North Carolina where shear will be stronger. However, surface heating may be more muted in this area. Stronger heating is more probable farther southwest, though shear will be weaker. Where the most favorable parameters overlap, scattered storms along with a few clusters will be capable of wind damage.

Arizona

Model guidance continues to suggest that around 30 kt of mid-level easterly winds will persist into Sunday across the Mogollon Rim. Strong heating of the lower deserts along with greater moisture moving farther northwest will support widely scattered to scattered convection. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity during the late afternoon and early evening.

Upper Great Lakes

Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A passing shortwave trough to the northeast will promote moderate effective shear of 35-45 kt. With the upper ridge building in from the west, mid-level heights will be steadily rising through the period. This leads to uncertainty as to how many storms can form. The lake breeze boundaries present would likely be the focus for development. The environment would support large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with a sustained supercell. Storm coverage precludes any upgrade in risk category, though storms could be intense if they form.

Southern Plains into Southeast

Marginally severe storms are possible along and south of a stalled surface boundary. Afternoon buoyancy will be moderate to strong, but mid-level lapse rates and shear will generally be weak. Any greater threat for damaging winds will be tied to where organized clusters can form.

..Wendt.. 07/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111932

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

Southeast

A weak, cut-off upper low will likely be present in the vicinity of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. This may help to organize storms along a stalled surface boundary within GA/SC. A moist airmass will promote a few stronger storms capable of wind damage. The overall threat does appear marginal as lapse rates will be less steep than previous days.

Arizona

With at least 50s F dewpoints remaining within parts of Arizona, thunderstorm activity can again be expected during the afternoon. With mid-level flow being slightly more out of the southwest and weakening with time, it is not certain how strong storms will become and how many will move into the lower deserts. Even so, strong gusts will be possible given the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.

Southwest Montana

Models show a convective signal during the late afternoon within the higher terrain of southwest Montana. Due to cloud cover, buoyancy will not likely be very strong. Stronger flow aloft would allow for isolated, organized storms should heating be greater than forecast.

..Wendt.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.

### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England

Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.

### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.

Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, July 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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