Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado appear possible across portions of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A conditional risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes exists over parts of Kansas and southern Nebraska this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHWEST TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado appear possible across portions of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A conditional risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes exists over parts of Kansas and southern Nebraska this afternoon and evening.
Central/southern Plains
A mid/upper-level low will move from the southern Rockies toward the central High Plains through the period. A surface low initially over the southern High Plains is forecast to move only slowly eastward into tonight. A warm front extending northeast of the surface low may move slowly northward through the day, though persistent clouds and precipitation may slow its advance.
A rather strong low-level jet is forecast to slowly shift northeastward across parts of central/eastern KS into western MO and southeast NE/southwest IA later today into the evening. This will help to maintain favorable wind profiles in the vicinity of the effective warm front. Destabilization near the warm front may remain weak due to limited diurnal heating and weak midlevel lapse rates. However, if sufficient buoyancy can develop by late afternoon, there will be potential for surface-based supercell development, which could pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind threat.
Farther south, the coverage and persistence of early-day convection across the southern Plains remain somewhat uncertain, though there may be a tendency for convection to weaken and/or shift northward by early afternoon. The greatest confidence in substantial diurnal destabilization is from southwest OK into northwest TX and the Edwards Plateau, where heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500 J/kg, despite poor midlevel lapse rates. Renewed storm development is expected from late afternoon into the evening, in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level low. Moderate midlevel flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.
While supercells will be possible initially, generally front-parallel flow and increasing storm coverage will likely lead to more of a linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts appear to be the most likely hazard, though isolated hail also appears possible across southwest TX, where somewhat stronger destabilization may occur. Also, while low-level flow will be weaker compared to areas farther north, some increase in effective SRH is expected during the evening, which could support a localized brief tornado threat within the very moist environment.
An isolated severe threat could persist into parts of central TX/OK overnight, though diminishing buoyancy with time and eastward extent should result in an eventual weakening trend.
..Dean/Weinman.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300541
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.
Southern Plains
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the southern Plains on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance south-southeastward across Oklahoma and west Texas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to destabilization along a corridor from central Texas north-northeastward into eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will possible along and near the instability axis in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. By mid to late afternoon, steepening low-level lapse rates will make isolated severe wind gusts a possibility. This threat could continue into the early evening as low-level flow increases. Any wind-damage threat that develops is expected to remain marginal.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is expected to be too weak for a severe threat.
Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The severe threat is expected to be minimal.
..Broyles.. 09/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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