Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern through central Plains and Minnesota into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231945

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…EASTERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern through central Plains and Minnesota into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

MN/IA to KS/northern OK this afternoon into tonight

The interaction of a southeastward moving midlevel trough over southern BC/AB and a northeastward moving trough over the western Dakotas will lead to the formation of a deep closed low over southern SK. An associated, occluding surface cyclone will weaken across southern MB by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves across MN/IA/KS/MO and northern OK. Low-level moisture will spread northward across IA/MN in advance of the cold front, beneath the northeast edge of an elevated mixed layer. Surface heating and the degree of buoyancy may be limited by extensive clouds from IA into MN, and forecast wind profiles show complex/messy hodographs structures (stronger low-level shear lingering across IA). Mixed convective modes are expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon, which could produce occasional wind damage, large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

The more substantial severe threat is expected late this afternoon through late evening from eastern KS into northern OK, near and just northeast of a cold front/dryline triple point and weak secondary cyclone. A midlevel speed max near the Four Corners will progress eastward to the TX Panhandle by this evening, with ascent in the left exit region of the jet coincident with the triple point near or just north of the KS/OK border. An influx of mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, with weakening convective inhibition across KS by mid afternoon.

Storm development is expected along the cold front in KS by mid afternoon, with storms expected to develop southward to near the triple point. The large buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells will favor very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) with the initial/more discrete storms. The tornado threat will peak this evening as low-level shear/hodograph curvature increase near the KS/OK border - there will be strong tornado potential with the anchor/southern supercells near the triple point. Upscale storm growth and cold pool development will favor a more linear convective mode with occasional wind damage as the outflow/effective cold front spreads southeastward into northeast OK and southwest MO overnight.

OK dryline this evening

Storm development along the dryline in OK is uncertain late this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest that the degree of surface heating/mixing along the dryline and residence time in the dryline circulation will be close to supporting deep convection. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor very large hail initially, and the possibility of an evening tornado threat with any sustained storm.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower Ohio Valley as well.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231715

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower Ohio Valley as well.

Synopsis

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader cyclonic flow.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40 corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains. Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However, localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent, but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment could produce large hail.

Portions of the Ohio Valley

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of Texas.

Synopsis

Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread parts of the southern and central Plains on Saturday, as the midlevel pattern responds to a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into the Southwest. This will induce strong southerly winds across the Plains, helping to draw an outflow-influenced frontal boundary northward. This boundary is currently forecast to be oriented from northwest to southeast across portions of Oklahoma by late Saturday.

Parts of KS/OK/TX into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley

No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk. Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, and diurnal heating will result in strong destabilization across parts of the southern Plains, with at least moderate destabilization into parts of KS. Large-scale ascent will be subtle at best during the day, but isolated storm development will be possible by late afternoon in the vicinity of the diffuse warm front extending from eastern OK into southern KS and vicinity. Favorable deep-layer shear combined with the moderate to strong buoyancy will favor initial supercell development, with a threat of very large hail and potentially a couple tornadoes (especially near the remnant boundary).

Some upscale growth will be possible into the evening, with potential for an organized cluster or MCS to move southeastward along the instability gradient towards parts of the ArkLaTex, and potentially the lower MS Valley, before weakening. This evolution could be accompanied by an increasing damaging-wind threat, along with isolated hail and/or tornado potential with any embedded supercells.

Farther south, a conditionally favorable environment will be in place during the afternoon along/east of the effective dryline, from southwest OK into TX. Despite the lack of notable large-scale ascent, isolated storms may develop due to weakening CINH and heating to convective temperatures. Any storms that can mature within this environment could evolve into supercells with large to very large hail potential. The Marginal Risk has been expanded southwestward across TX, where some global and extended CAM guidance shows a signal for sustained development during the late afternoon.

..Dean.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 23

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 45%

WIND: 30%

Friday, April 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game