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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and southern Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061200

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM INDIANA INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and southern Plains.

Indiana to Southern New England

Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the Great Lakes region. This trough and an associated mid-level speed max will spread across the upper Ohio Valley into New England this afternoon and tonight. Strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the trough has led to multiple clusters of ongoing thunderstorms from eastern IL into parts of OH/PA/NY. One or more of these clusters, along with new development by early afternoon, is expected to intensify and spread across the SLGT risk region. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and low-level lapse rates to support a risk of damaging wind gusts with this activity. Overnight CAM solutions continue to vary on the likely corridor of greatest concern. However, there is the potential for a rather widespread damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters occur.

Northern High Plains

A large upper ridge is in place today over the High Plains region. A southerly low-level jet is expected to intensify by early evening as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over southeast MT. This should encourage the development of evening thunderstorms across eastern MT tracking into western ND overnight. It is unclear whether the bulk of these storms will be just west of the warm sector and elevated, or will be surface-based. Regardless, large hail is the primary concern.

Southern Plains

A weak upper low is tracking northeastward from west TX into Oklahoma this morning. A band of stronger winds aloft to the east of the low, coupled with pockets of daytime heating and ample moisture, will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060530

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Synopsis

A vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern High Plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast. Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will progress through the Northeast, while a more loosely organized trough progresses through the central and southern Plains through the Ozarks and mid MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front moving out of the northern Rockies. That frontal system will continue east into the ND-MN Red River Valley, and southeast into the central High Plains by Monday morning. Elsewhere, more of a backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic.

### Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas

A hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of the pre-frontal trough over the western Dakotas Sunday afternoon, with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to an axis of moderate to strong instability. Moderate instability is expected to extend into eastern MT and northeast WY, owing to low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. Initial storm development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of the instability axis across southeast MT into north-central and northeast WY as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. A separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon into evening over the western Dakotas as the cold front merges with the pre-frontal trough.

The MT/WY storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail. Initially marginal vertical shear with the western Dakotas storm regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. Some tornado threat may materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central ND where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist, lower-LCL boundary layer. The magnitude of the threat will be contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more linear forcing along the cold front.

### Central Virginia into the Chesapeake Bay Area

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal wind shift moving into the area from the north. Convergence along that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon across the discussion area. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.

### Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas

Forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. That scenario would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon, leaving severe-storm potential in question. However, there is a signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level shear. A concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize, especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the larger convective footprint. That notion is generally supported by the 00z HREF mean 0-1 km SRH, which shows values increasing to 100-150 m2/s2 by Sunday evening.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the northern and central High Plains Monday in the wake of a short-wave trough lifting into central Canada, and ahead of an amplifying, upstream system tracking from the northern Great Basin into northern Rockies. At the surface, a frontal system extending from the eastern Dakotas to low pressure over western KS Monday morning is forecast to weaken through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies.

### Central High Plains

Deepening low pressure over MT and WY in conjunction with a residual surface low over southwest KS or northwest OK will promote the westward advection of an increasingly moist air mass into the higher terrain of eastern CO and southeast WY. That process will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with a moderately unstable environment developing by afternoon. In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, daytime heating and lift along favored terrain may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen through the day, yielding sufficient vertical shear for supercells capable of large hail. There is some model signal that an isolated hail and wind threat may spread into western parts of NE and KS Monday evening.

### Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South

A number of models suggest that thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across Ozarks or Ozark Plateau region within a zone of warm advection occurring with the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ is forecast to weaken through the morning, with forcing for ascent becoming much more nebulous into afternoon. The air mass along and south of an expected outflow boundary is forecast to be quite moist and moderate to strongly unstable, and a few severe storms appear possible during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the magnitude of any severe weather threat. The primary uncertainty is exactly where the outflow boundary will reside given considerable model variability in precipitation distribution throughout the day. As such, no severe-weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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