Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270105
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
01Z Update
A prominent shortwave trough now nearing the Colorado/Kansas border is promoting elevated convection ahead of it. An 8.2 C/km mid-level lapse rate was sampled on the 00Z DDC sounding this evening. These steep lapse rates should shift eastward along with the shortwave trough. Additional, stronger convection remains possible in parts of central/eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Earlier convection has complicated the low-level thermodynamic environment, though large hail and damaging winds are possible with organized cells and linear structures. The tornado threat through the evening is somewhat less clear, but a deepening surface low should advect richer moisture northward. Depending on storm mode and low-level stability, tornadoes remain possible in parts of northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas later this evening. In the short term, the greatest threat for a strong tornado is in southeast Kansas. In Oklahoma into North Texas, the dryline is surging westward. This area will become increasingly removed from large-scale ascent. An isolated storm or two remain possible at least trough mid-evening. Lastly, convection in Missouri and southeast Kansas will eventually grow upscale. A buoyancy gradient within the Mid-South region may serve as a focus for continued southeast movement through the evening. Marginal wind and hail are possible with this activity.
..Wendt.. 04/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Summary
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261731
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA…WESTERN KENTUCKY…AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
### SUMMARY
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Discussion
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Plains and move eastward into northern Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken by the cold front.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period, with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.
Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points. Confidence is highest in a better corridor of heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).
A more conditional threat exists further north across northern Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and strong tornadoes will be possible.
As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk. However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late evening.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm development may extend into central/western Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm development may extend into central/western Texas.
Synopsis
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags slowly south and east.
The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast. It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.
Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region, with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large hail in this region.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, April 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, April 27
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Tuesday, April 28
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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