Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290453
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINAS…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic.
Synopsis
An upper trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and Midwest today. Within southern stream flow, a weak shortwave impulse will migrate through westerly flow aloft from Texas to the GA/SC coast. This will result in enhanced westerly flow across the southern U.S. and the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from northern IN southwestward into central TX this morning. This front will develop southward across TX and southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast through the period. The northern extent of the front will shift east across the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This surface boundary will be a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.
TX to GA/SC Coast
A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface front, particularly across TX where dewpoints in the 70s are common. Heating into the 80s and 90 of this very moist airmass will result in a corridor of moderate to strong MLCAPE. The surface boundary will be the main forcing mechanism for convection across TX and storm coverage may remain isolated. Further east into the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, a shortwave impulse will provide modest forcing for ascent in addition to the southeast sagging cold front.
Isolated supercells across central TX will pose a risk for large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail. Uncertainty concerning storm coverage and capping across TX precludes an upgrade to Sight risk at this time. Additional storms are expected to develop closer to the Sabine Valley and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm clusters may congeal into one or more linear segment and move across MS/AL/GA during the late afternoon into evening hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity.
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity
An upper shortwave trough emanating from the Great Lakes/Midwest upper trough will overspread the region during the afternoon/evening in tandem with the eastward advancing cold front. Modest boundary layer moisture is forecast across the region, with dewpoints generally in the 50s to near 60 F. Modest heating will result in weak destabilization (generally 500-750 J/kg or less). Despite weak instability, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. This should aid in at least transient organization of stronger updrafts with a wind and hail risk. While instability and moisture will be marginal, 0-1 SRH will approach 150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low and a brief tornado could also occur.
..Leitman/Moore.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong storms may impact the Rio Grande River vicinity near the Texas Big Bend late Thursday afternoon and evening, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290452
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong storms may impact the Rio Grande River vicinity near the Texas Big Bend late Thursday afternoon and evening, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail.
Discussion
It still appears that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard, with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward through the Great Lakes region. In its wake, split westerlies likely will remain confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
There appears a much better consensus within latest model output concerning the inland progression of this perturbation, which is now generally forecast to accelerate across northern Mexico and adjacent portions of the U.S. Southwest, toward the Texas Big Bend vicinity Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream short wave ridging is forecast to gradually shift east of the southern Rockies, across the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast, while subtropical ridging centered across southern Mexico undergoes further suppression.
In lower levels, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging will be maintained across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley into Southeast. Most guidance now indicates that the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass will make slow, but steady, southward progress into and across the Texas Big Bend and Hill Country, immediate upper Texas/Louisiana coastal vicinity, and northern Florida.
Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation, may contribute to multiple rounds of thunderstorm development above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late Thursday night. Based on latest model output, including Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles seem unlikely to support severe hail. One exception might develop within moist upslope flow into a more strongly heated environment across the higher terrain near and south of the Texas Big Bend. Beneath moderate to strong mid-level flow, the initiation of a couple of supercells appears possible. However, this activity is expected to weaken as it acquires less unstable updraft inflow to the east of the higher terrain.
Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal thunderstorm activity.
..Kerr.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS…SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…THE FLORIDA BIG BEND VICINITY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Discussion
Latest model output suggests that there will be substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific during this period, with ridging building to the west of 140W longitude into the higher latitudes of western Canada, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies. Within this ridging, a modest mid-level trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of the U.S. Pacific coast, while broad upper ridging gradually builds across the subtropical eastern Pacific.
Downstream, a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, enhanced across the Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley, in the wake of short wave troughing forecast to dig to the southwest of an elongated area of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity.
A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by 12Z Friday is likely to undergo shearing as it progresses through the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance suggests a notable lingering impulse may support a developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Middle Texas coastal plain through Florida Big Bend region
Large-scale forcing for ascent aided by warm advection along and to the cool side of the front may support a swath of mostly weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coast during this period. Among other model output, forecast soundings from the NAM and RRFS indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential for severe hail and/or wind. One exception may be across middle Texas coastal areas, where loaded gun type soundings, probably based above a stable surface-based layer, may become conducive to supercell development in the presence of strong shear, as mid-level forcing for ascent overspreads the region by late afternoon.
Late Friday evening across southeastern-most parishes of Louisiana, through the Florida Big Bend region by 12Z Saturday, forecast soundings suggest modest boundary-layer destabilization is possible in a pre-frontal corridor coincident with strengthening deep-layer shear and enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. It is possible that this will become supportive of supercells, accompanied by the risk for a tornado or two, in addition to large hail and localized damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, April 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, April 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, May 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game