Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, May 24

Monday, May 25

Tuesday, May 26

Wednesday, May 27

Thursday, May 28

Friday, May 29

Saturday, May 30

Sunday, May 31

Outlook for Sunday, May 24

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241948

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.

20z Update

No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates.

Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/

Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland

Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will eventually influence the region, but generally not until this evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur, upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern Minnesota with some severe storms possible.

Southeast States

An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this afternoon.

North/central Texas

Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts, and possibly a couple of instances of hail.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest, Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241732

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION…PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST…PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX…AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest, Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.

MN Arrowhead region

While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this region.

Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA

While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.

NM into Far West Texas

Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of strong to localized severe gusts.

Southeast

A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage, with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development. A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA, where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this Marginal Risk area.

Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies

Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized, with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region, if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for organized convection.

..Dean.. 05/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241922

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible.

Parts of west TX and southeast NM

No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear, supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells. Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.

Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account for isolated severe potential into late evening.

Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID

Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Dean.. 05/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, May 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, May 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, May 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Monday, May 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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