Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible early this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley and in north-central Utah.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170050
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN NORTH-CENTRAL UTAH
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible early this evening across parts of the Ohio Valley and in north-central Utah.
Ohio Valley
The latest water vapor imagery shows a distinct low-amplitude shortwave trough in southwest Ontario extending southward toward the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from central Illinois east-northeastward into central Ohio. The shortwave trough is providing large-ascent, supportive of scattered thunderstorms ongoing near the front mainly across Ohio. South of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability with MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The Wilmington, Ohio 00Z sounding has 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, and the latest WSR-88D VWP from Wilmington has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a couple more hours this evening, with isolated wind damage possible.
North-central Utah
An upper-level low-pressure system is currently located near the West Coast. Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot along the southeastern periphery of the system from southern California into western Utah. Thunderstorms are forming along the eastern edge of the dry slot across north-central Utah, where large-scale ascent appears to be maximized. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F with 500 mb temperatures near -8 C are contributing to weak instability in north-central Utah, with MLCAPE estimated by the RAP around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings suggest that low to mid-level lapse rates are near 7 C/km. This should be steep enough, along with moderate deep-layer shear, for isolated severe wind gusts and hail early this evening.
..Broyles.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
Low-end probabilities of wind damage could be included in later outlook updates in the vicinity of the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, but the overall severe-storm threat still appears too marginal for an outlook area.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Low-end probabilities of wind damage could be included in later outlook updates in the vicinity of the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, but the overall severe-storm threat still appears too marginal for an outlook area.
Synopsis
A subtropical high aloft will persist over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through tomorrow. Around the periphery of the high and in response to a shortwave trough crossing ON/QC, a surface cold front will move slowly southeastward Thursday evening/overnight across the upper OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic. This baroclinic zone will focus a few thunderstorm clusters during the forecast period, with minor enhancement of midlevel flow (20+ kt) and steepening of low-level lapse rates to support an isolated/low-end threat for wind damage during the afternoon. Given the relatively poor midlevel lapse rates and offset of somewhat stronger midlevel flow and the larger buoyancy, the threat for severe storms appears low enough to not introduce probabilities in this update. Additional convection is expected farther west along the front into the Midwest/Plains, though much of that convection will likely be tied to low-level warm advection immediately north of the front Thursday night.
Scattered thunderstorms are also probable across the southern/central Rockies within the monsoonal moisture plume between the southern Plains ridge and a closed low over northeast CA, as well as the zone of weak ascent north-northeast of the midlevel low. Very isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible, but the overall threat appears too limited to warrant the addition of an outlook area.
..Thompson.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms will be possible from eastern Nebraska into Iowa and northern Kansas, mainly Friday afternoon/evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND VICINITY
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms will be possible from eastern Nebraska into Iowa and northern Kansas, mainly Friday afternoon/evening.
Synopsis
A midlevel high will persist over TX and vicinity as the current closed low over northern CA begins to progress eastward across the northern Great Basin. Around the northern periphery of the TX midlevel high, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge from overnight convection late Thursday into Friday morning near the mid MO Valley (NE/IA), with an associated weak wave along a slow-moving baroclinic zone. Assuming an MCV develops, some enhancement to wind profiles and associated vertical shear can be expected, which would support some organized/supercell storm potential in a narrow zone along the path of the MCV. Higher-based thunderstorm development may also occur along the trailing front/wind shift into KS where strong surface heating and deep mixing will favor inverted-V profiles and at least isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.
Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will again occur across the central/northern Rockies downstream from the Great Basin midlevel trough. A few pockets of stronger surface heating/destabilization could coincide with at least 30 kt midlevel flow and support the low-end potential for strong outflow gusts. This area will be monitored in later updates, but the severe threat appears to be too marginal to introduce severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Thompson.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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