Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021629
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
Southeast States
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle, with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.
The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.
Northern/Central California
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts, but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain limited.
..Guyer/Dean.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020647
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF CA/OR
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
Southeast
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with low-probability tornado/wind threats.
It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as storms cluster during the afternoon.
Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon, while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during the afternoon to early evening.
The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal convective development across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells, which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado. Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.
The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 020815
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
West Coast to the CA Central Valley
Latest guidance remains reasonably consistent with the evolution of the persistent eastern Pacific upper trough on Sunday. One embedded shortwave impulse should impinge on western WA early Sunday, while a separate impulse shifts inland across southern CA through Sunday night. Guidance is also highly consistent in depicting minimal buoyancy in vicinity of these impulses, likely yielding lower- probability thunder potential compared to D2/Saturday. Sporadic/very isolated lightning coverage will probably diurnally peak on Sunday afternoon, where cold mid-level temperatures are present along most of the West Coast into the Central Valley.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.
Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.
In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
..Grams.. 01/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, January 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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