Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 16
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161613
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN…AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF IOWA.
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains.
IN/Lower MI
Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and progressive Clipper system tracking southeastward across MN/WI. A band of clouds and isolated thunderstorms precedes this system, extending from southern Lower MI into central IL. While a few strong storms are possible to develop in this band, the greater risk for severe storms appears to be associated with a period of heating in the wake of these clouds. Steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will combine with dewpoints around 60F to result in sufficient afternoon/evening CAPE for widely scattered strong/severe storm development. Large hail will be the initial main concern, along with some risk of a tornado or two. By early evening, damaging winds will be the main concern.
IA Overnight
The next in a series of fast-moving upper-level features will move across the Dakotas tonight, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading into parts of MN/IA before 12z. This ascent will begin interacting with a plume of returning moisture, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the pre-dawn hours. Elevated supercells capable of large hail will be the main risk through 12z.
MT/ND
The aforementioned upper feature will affect northeast MT and the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop over this area with temperatures in the 80s and 35-45F t-td spreads. CAPE will be rather weak, which should limit overall convective organization. Nevertheless, fast-moving high-based showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty and occasionally severe wind gusts are expected.
Gulf Coast
The tropical system (PTC 1) along the south TX coast is expected to slowly organize today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms from east TX into the central Gulf coast. Low-level winds are not particularly strong and forecast hodographs are only marginally favorable for updraft rotation. Nevertheless with such a broad area of risk, a tornado or two is certainly possible this afternoon through tonight.
..Hart/Lyons.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 17
Outlook Summary
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161827
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
CORRECTED FOR TORNADO PROBABILITIES
SUMMARY
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana on Wednesday. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts to 80 mph and hail to 2.5 inch diameter are expected.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level jet streak will overspread parts of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. A deep surface low initially within the Upper Midwest is forecast to evolve across the lower Great Lakes and southern Ontario/Quebec. A strong low-level jet will advect rich surface moisture ahead of a cold front through the period. A warm front, likely reinforced by morning convection is expected to lift northward into parts of central/northern Illinois and northern Indiana/Ohio. Potent wind fields for this point in June will support a threat for scattered to numerous severe storms capable of all severe hazards – including strong to intense tornadoes, very-large hail, and 75+ mph winds.
Mid-Mississippi Valley into northern Indiana/far western Ohio
A majority of the CAMs as well as regional/global guidance suggest convection will be ongoing in parts of eastern Iowa early Wednesday morning. This activity will shift through northern/central Illinois into Indiana. Some risk for damaging winds will probably accompany this activity. The degree to which this cluster of convection can intensify through mid/late morning is not clear. The environment with eastward extent will begin drier and less unstable. The most probable outcome is that this convection shifts east-southeast relatively quickly and weakens with time.
The more substantial severe threat is expected to develop perhaps by early/mid afternoon and depend strongly upon how morning convection evolves spatially. Given the strong moisture advection into the region, it is reasonable to expect an area of relatively rapid airmass recovery from the Quad Cities vicinity into parts of central Illinois. Storms that form in this environment near the surface low/warm front will likely be discrete and take advantage of strong low-level shear. Large to very-large hail, significant wind gusts, and strong/intense tornadoes will all be possible. As convection continues eastward into Indiana, the low-level moisture will be improving with time.
Southeast Kansas into Missouri
Along the cold front, scattered storms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. With mid-level height falls not being overly strong and effective shear vectors have a large orthogonal component across the front, storms will likely be supercellular for a few hours. Steep mid-level and low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of large/very-large hail as well as potentially 75+ mph wind gusts. Despite being west of the low-level jet core, low-level wind fields will still support a risk of tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
Central Gulf Coast
Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is forecast to move northeastward with time. The marginally enhanced low-level wind fields will support weak supercell structures that may produce brief, weak tornadoes. Given the poor thermodynamic environment and the main timing of the threat being during the evening/overnight, the overall threat should remain marginal.
..Wendt.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.
Synopsis
A series of embedded midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate through broad upper troughing and strong southwesterly deep-layer flow from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over southern Ontario will develop northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the Lower Great Lakes to northern OK and the TX Panhandle during the morning. This front will sag south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to central TX by Friday morning. A very moist airmass will reside south of the front, particularly from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate to strong destabilization will develop across parts of the Plains into the Ohio Valley, with more modest instability with northeast extent into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Very strong west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to reside across the Northeast on Thursday, decreasing with southwest extent into the Ohio Valley. Convection may be ongoing near the surface front and within the broad warm advection regime ahead of the boundary Thursday morning, especially across the Northeast. This will likely temper destabilization across portions of PA/NY and points northeastward. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will still support strong to severe wind gusts with convection through early evening. Richer boundary layer moisture will be in place from TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, fostering strong destabilization. Clusters and line segments will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts.
OK/TX to the Mid-South
A belt of strong instability is forecast ahead of the southward sagging cold front Thursday afternoon. This area will be further removed from stronger mid/upper southwesterly flow. But, ample instability, modest effective shear, and high PWs supporting water laden downdrafts will result in a marginal severe risk for damaging winds within thunderstorm clusters/bands.
Southeast
The remnants of a tropical disturbance is expected to migrate across portions of the Gulf Coast states on Thursday. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place. The remnant low may serve to locally enhance vertical shear, resulting in an accompanying risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 20
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 20 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160753 SPC AC 160753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Fri - Carolinas
A very moist airmass will be in place across the Carolinas vicinity on Friday. Medium range guidance varies in the evolution of a surface front across the region. However, widespread convection is likely to be ongoing Friday morning somewhere across the Southeast. This will likely temper downstream destabilization and severe potential is uncertain.
Day 5/Sat - Central Plains
Upper ridging over the Plains will break down on Saturday as an upper shortwave impulse ejects from the central Rockies toward the Mid-MO Valley. At the same time, lee surface low development over the central High Plains will strengthen south/southeasterly low-level flow and rich Gulf moisture will quickly stream northward across portions of KS/NE. Moderate to strong destabilization amid strengthening west/northwesterly flow aloft will support severe thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the forecast period. However, the general consensus is for weakening flow aloft and upper ridging building across the western U.S. Overall, predictability is low for early next week.
..Leitman.. 06/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 17
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game