Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201946
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected today.
20Z Update
The TSTM area over the coast of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic was removed, as large-scale forcing for ascent and related thunderstorm activity has shifted offshore. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track.
..Weinman.. 04/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/
Synopsis
An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight.
Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.
Synopsis
Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes.
Midwest/Lower Great Lakes
Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low. The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri is far more conditional.
Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas
Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas. Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential.
California Central Valley
After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be limited by weak deep-layer shear.
..Wendt.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains.
Synopsis
A broad trough will begin to move into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A shortwave trough will eject into the northern Plains in association with the broader trough. At the surface, a deep surface low will develop in eastern Montana with a lee trough/dryline extending into the southern High Plains.
High Plains
As the upper-trough approaches the Rockies, the lee trough and dryline are expected to sharpen. Forcing for ascent will be strongest in the Nebraska Panhandle/western South Dakota vicinity. This area is also has the largest variability in terms of moisture return (the NAM being much more bullish than the ECMWF). Farther south, moisture will generally be greater. Guidance is in agreement that 60s F dewpoints are probable in the Texas South Plains and perhaps parts of the Panhandle. The issue farther south will be the lack of synoptic ascent. Temperatures behind the dryline will be in the upper 80s F to perhaps low 90s F. The depth of the circulation may be enough to initiate an isolated storm or two, but confidence is still not overly high. Environmentally, deep-layer shear will be oriented roughly perpendicular to the dryline, especially from western Kansas southward. Supercells would be favored if storms develop. MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg in South Dakota to 1500-2500 J/kg farther south is expected by the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible.
Central/Easter Montana
With the surface low deepening through the day, at least modest moisture return northwestward is anticipated into central/eastern Montana. However, moisture will still be quite scant across the region. Dewpoints may not reach the 40s F. Given the forcing for ascent, high-based convection is possible. The very dry sub-cloud layers could lead to gusty outflow winds. At present, confidence in severe gusts is too low to warrant wind probabilities.
..Wendt.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 24 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
In the days preceding this forecast period, a long-wave trough will develop across the western US. This feature will persist across the western and central US through the forecast period supporting a multi-day severe weather threat across portions of the central US.
On Thursday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will rotate around the closed midlevel low across the northern Rockies. This will reinforce a surface cyclone as it moves north into Canada. As this low moves north, a combined dryline/cold front will move east into an increasingly moist environment across the central Plains. The airmass ahead of the front should destabilize during the day Thursday, with MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg possible into portions of Minnesota.
Thunderstorms should develop across portions of northeast Kansas into Iowa during the late afternoon as height falls overspread the surface front. These storms should quickly build southward along the front into portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Kinematic fields initially should support supercells, but midlevel flow will increasingly become parallel to the front suggesting that storms will grow upscale into one or more linear segments.
The surface front, augmented by convective outflows, will continue to push south and east into the Southern Plains and the greater ArkLaTex region overnight Thursday into Friday/Day-5 before stalling out. Forecast soundings along and ahead of the frontal boundary indicate an unstable, uncapped environment with vertical shear between 30-40 knots should support additional severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening/overnight across portions of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Saturday/Day-6, the larger-scale flow across the southern Plains will begin to respond to a low-latitude trough moving into southern California by once again becoming increasingly southwesterly. Embedded perturbations within this southwest flow ahead of the main trough will support an ongoing severe threat across the southern Plains. However, the location of various surface boundaries (dryline, outflow, frontal) will be predicated on the evolution of prior days of convection and the timing of the aforementioned perturbations in the midlevel flow. Thus, while pattern recognition suggests severe weather will be possible on Days 6,7, and 8, certainty as to the location of greatest severe potential on any given day remains too low to highlight with unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 04/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, April 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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