Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131214

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

WV/PA/NY

A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds are currently prevalent across this region, but some clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV. Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail…mainly in the 18-00z period.

Great Basin

A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight. Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind gusts.

TX Panhandle

A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s. Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks

A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens. Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued isolated severe threat.

Southern High Plains

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys

Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, May 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 14

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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