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Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.
← back to overviewSPC AC 112000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.
20z Update KS/NE
An MCV evident in visible imagery over southwest/central KS is forecast to shift northeastward this afternoon toward a differential heating zone associated with a modifying remnant outflow boundary across northern KS and southern NE. Ample heating south of this zone has warmed temperatures ~5-7 degree above model guidance, with observation trends suggestive of locally stronger buoyancy and vertical shear on modified 12 and 18z RAOBs (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). While overall mid-level flow is modest, some enhancement in the low and mid-levels ahead of the MCV is also evident in area VADs, bolstering bulk shear to 30-35 kt. Backed low-level winds along the retreating boundary are also aiding in maintaining sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs. This could support the development of small supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the MCV.
Otherwise, some hail and localized strong wind gusts are possible with any more robust storms able to develop and maintain themselves into this evening. Deep-layer shear is progged to increase after dark, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops, supporting an increase in storm coverage along and north of the boundary tonight. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. Given the local increase in severe potential, a small zone ahead of the MCV and along the boundary has been upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk.
TX and NM
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight across West TX, the Rio Grand Valley and southeastern NM. Eventually, one ore more lines or clusters may emerge and spread east/northeast into central TX/west-central OK. A risk for damaging gusts or a tornado remain possible with these storms into early Sunday morning. High-res guidance suggests these storms may maintain intensity slightly farther east. The 5% wind are was moved eastward to account for the overnight/early morning risk for a few damaging gusts.
Elsewhere, severe storms remain possible over parts of the Rockies and West Coast. The outlook remains largely unchanged. See the prior discussion for additional information.
..Lyons.. 04/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/
Synopsis
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico, progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas, with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.
Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong.
Southern High Plains into Central Texas
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent of whatever line develops.
Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region, as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity into north-central MO by this evening.
Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However, some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a tornado.
More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into the Upper Midwest.
Northern/Central Rockies
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much of the region.
Northern/Central California Coast
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
← back to overviewSPC AC 111730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.
Synopsis
On Sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the West Coast while ridging continues across the eastern US. Broad southwesterly flow will propagate across the Rockies and into the Plains, with several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the upper Midwest. This pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of the Rockies. Across the southern/central Plains, southerly surface flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern Plains into the upper Mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest into northwest OK and western TX.
It is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the D2/Sunday period across TX/OK and across central/northern MN. Some re-intensification of convection will be possible across portions of central/eastern Texas. Additional activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of the dryline and across the Sierra Madre in Mexico.
Central/Southern Plains
In the wake of morning convection across portions of western Texas into the OK/TX Panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. HREF guidance shows persistent mid to high level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early afternoon. It is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will be common from western Texas into western/central OK and southern KS. Given the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western Texas into western Oklahoma and high terrain in Mexico. Generally linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds. Additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in KS/NE. With any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode, perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.
Upper Midwest
Re-development of thunderstorm activity across the Upper Midwest remains less certain Sunday afternoon. The mid-level wave will advance eastward with a warm front lifting into Canada and surface low tracking northeast. Most CAM guidance produces little to no thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward too quickly. HREF calibrated thunder signals also remain low. The environment will be conditionally unstable, with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear profiles. Should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.
..Thornton.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.
← back to overviewSPC AC 111929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.
Synopsis
The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development likely into upper MI through the late evening.
Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
Upper Midwest
Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities.
Central/Southern Plains
A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening, the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline. Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.
..Thornton.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes
A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest
Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes
A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest
Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes
A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest
Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes
A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest
Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes
A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest
Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.
Days 6-8/Thu-Sat
Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 04/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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