Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180459
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI…AND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states.
Discussion
An upper trough will remain over much of the central and northern Plains, with cool midlevel temperatures extending as far south as northern TX. An upper disturbance will move across OK and KS during the day, pivoting into IA/MO/AR during the evening. Cooling aloft/height falls associated with this feature should aid daytime destabilization.
At the surface, a weak boundary should extend from the TX Panhandle into northern OK, and into the eastern KS/western MO vicinity. Daytime heating will combine with the cool air aloft and a marginally moist boundary layer to produce MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Early day rain/storms may occur over KS beneath midlevel cold pocket, and some of this activity could eventually produce small hail.
By late afternoon and as the low-level lapse rate plume is established, renewed development is expected from eastern KS into OK, with activity pushing into western MO and northwest AR through evening. Overall, deep layer shear will be marginal, however, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO.
..Jewell.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180523
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Friday. At the surface, a weak low over southwest MN will lift north through the period, while a broad area of weak low pressure overspreads the central High Plains. Light southerly low-level flow will maintain mid 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints from the south-central U.S. northward into the Upper MS Valley. Pockets of weak instability are forecast, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity from the southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Poor lapse rates and generally weak vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential through evening.
As the upper shortwave trough ejects across NE toward the MO Valley overnight, isolated elevated convection could develop over KS in a warm advection regime. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates. Northwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen on the back side of the upper trough. A couple of strong storms could produce sub-severe hail.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across parts of the West as an upper shortwave trough moves northward across CA/NV into OR, an shortwave perturbations migrate through upper ridging over the Four Corners.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180701
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.
Synopsis
A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period, another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180749 SPC AC 180749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however.
Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180749 SPC AC 180749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however.
Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180749 SPC AC 180749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however.
Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180749 SPC AC 180749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however.
Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180749 SPC AC 180749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however.
Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman.. 09/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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