Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail (2+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290101
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS…ARKANSAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…AND MISSISSIPPI
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail (2+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
01z Update
Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast TX into AR, MS and vicinity. A mix of storms modes, including supercells and bowing segments will persist into the nighttime hours. Areas of large to very large hail (2+ inches with strongest cells), a few tornadoes (a couple could be strong), and damaging wind gusts remain possible over the next several hours.
The main outlook changes were to reduce severe probabilities across areas where storm potential has diminished, particularly for the Lever 4 of 5 (Moderate) risk area in TX where storms have moved southeast out of that area and redevelopment to the north appears unlikely.
..Leitman.. 04/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND ALSO FROM THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.
Lower Rio Grande Valley into parts of the Southeast
Outflow associated with extensive D1/Tuesday convection is forecast by most guidance to weaken and become increasingly ill defined near the northwest/north-central Gulf Coast through the day, with the trailing primary cold front extending from south-central TX into the Southeast by afternoon.
Details of convective evolution through the day/evening remain unclear, but with moderate midlevel flow and deep-layer shear overspreading residual moderate to strong buoyancy, the environment will again conditionally favor an organized severe threat through the day and evening.
Some guidance (both regional/global and CAMs) suggests that a low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maximum may emerge from northern Mexico and initiate storm development across parts of the Hill Country and central TX, during the morning, with at least isolated development also possible into parts of the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley and Southeast, near the cold front and any remnant outflow boundary.
Initial discrete development could pose a threat of isolated large hail, with a conditional very large hail risk with any robust supercell. With relatively unidirectional deep-layer westerly flow, one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve with time and track in the vicinity of the cold front, posing a threat of at least isolated wind damage. Parts of the region may require higher severe probabilities, once mesoscale details come into better focus with time.
Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic
Within a broad large-scale mid/upper-level trough covering much of the eastern CONUS, a vigorous shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Midwest to the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. A surface low will move from near the upper OH Valley toward the Delmarva region, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the central/southern Appalachians into parts of VA/MD and the Carolinas.
Potential for substantial destabilization in the wake of morning precipitation remains uncertain from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. Ascent related to the approaching shortwave trough and favorable wind profiles could support development of strong clusters or marginal supercells, if sufficient destabilization occurs. Some threat for damaging wind, a brief tornado or two, and perhaps isolated hail could develop, though the magnitude and coverage of these threats remain too uncertain for a categorical upgrade at this time. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the development of sustained supercells and/or organized clusters.
..Dean.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest and south-central Texas on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest and south-central Texas on Thursday.
Southwest into central TX
A mid/upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to eject eastward as a shortwave across northern Mexico, and approach Far West Texas late in the period. A belt of moderate to strong midlevel westerlies will be maintained downstream of this system across much of TX. Easterly post-frontal low-level flow will maintain relatively favorable moisture across southwest TX, though somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates (compared to previous days) may limit MUCAPE to the 1000-2000 J/kg range. While weaker than previous days, this buoyancy magnitude would still be conditionally favorable for organized convection, given the presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear.
Details of storm coverage and evolution through the period remain uncertain. Relatively vigorous elevated convection could support some isolated hail potential, especially if early-day storms can be maintained through the day, or with any diurnal surface-based development. Storm coverage will likely tend to increase by Thursday night, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While convective mode may quickly become complex late in the period, some threat for hail or localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. Given the potential for one or more rounds of deep convection within a relatively favorable environment, a Level 1/Marginal Risk has been included for southwest TX and vicinity.
..Dean.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280923 SPC AC 280923
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies.
There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.
..Kerr.. 04/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, April 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, May 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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