Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311945
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no major changes or additions made to the outlook.
..Squitieri.. 05/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/
Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight.
Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west.
West TX this afternoon/evening
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
Central Plains
An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height.
Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise, storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases.
Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and surface convergence will be maximized.
From MO into MS/AL
An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty to organization potential. However, strong instability with near 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong to severe gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311935
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
Synopsis
An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the Dakotas and into southern Canada.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas.
Northern to Central High Plains
Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes.
Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with 50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal.
Northern FL and Vicinity
A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop along the east coast sea breeze.
..Jewell.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.
In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.
Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.
In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.
Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.
In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.
Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.
In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.
Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.
In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.
Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 31
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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