Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260532
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Southern and Central Plains
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible.
Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat.
Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
Central and Southwest Texas
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Summary
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI…MUCH OF ILLINOIS…AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA
### SUMMARY
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Discussion
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America.
Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.
The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.
Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts.
The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.
Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.
Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.
Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.
Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.
Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.
Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.
Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.
Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.
Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.
Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, April 26
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, April 27
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Tuesday, April 28
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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