Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S. through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050053
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S. through tonight.
Discussion
Cold mid-level air overspreading the Pacific Coast into Intermountain West, associated with splitting large-scale mid/upper troughing, has contributed to weak conditional instability, based on observed and forecast soundings. Thermodynamic profiles appear to have become at least potentially marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning in a broad swath, across northern and central California through the northern Intermountain Region and Great Basin, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.
Despite this destabilization, to this point, weak thunderstorm development has been generally negligible. With the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling, this may not change appreciably this evening into the overnight hours.
However, with the mid-level cold core of one notable short wave perturbation just now beginning to spread inland of Washington and adjacent Oregon coastal areas, mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling might still increase sufficiently to support minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities tonight.
Across parts of the southern Sierra Nevada into Great Basin, forcing for ascent associated with a more modest and weakening short wave perturbation could also still support minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041713
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
Synopsis
The potential for strong/severe thunderstorms remains low for Monday across the country. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern CA coast Monday morning through early afternoon as cool temperatures aloft/weak buoyancy associated with an upper trough spread south/southeastward before shifting offshore later in the day. Further east, one or more weak upper-level disturbances moving across the northern Great Basin may support adequate ascent and mid-level destabilization for sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon hours. For both regimes, buoyancy profiles will be too limited to support an appreciable strong/severe thunderstorm threat.
..Moore.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 6
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041918
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Synopsis
Latest guidance continues to depict very limited potential for thunderstorms across the country Tuesday/Tuesday night. Despite an influx of Gulf moisture into the lower MS Valley and a passing upper wave over the Plains, warm low/mid-level temperatures will preclude deep convection for the central/southern US. Some solutions - notably the NAM - hint at the potential for weak buoyancy across the central Rockies and northwest WA, but poor ensemble agreement limits confidence in the potential for lightning.
..Moore.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040931 SPC AC 040931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas.
D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.
..Grams.. 01/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, January 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, January 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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