Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential should remain low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061920
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential should remain low.
20z Update
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 04/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today, while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and modest lift.
Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061635
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Synopsis
Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front oriented across north-central FL into the Gulf will result in a mostly dry/stable boundary layer east of the Rockies. Ahead of the front across parts of the FL Peninsula, a seasonally moist and weakly unstable airmass will be in place. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys, though modest vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Midlevel moistening amid steep lapse rates will support weak destabilization as an upper shortwave trough moves across the region. This should support weak thunderstorm activity, though severe storms are not expected. Further north, another upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. While moisture will be limited (PW values generally less than .75 in), a few high-based thunderstorms will be possible across eastern MT and vicinity as steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft foster weak destabilization. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support locally gusty winds, but severe convection is not expected.
..Leitman.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061908
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday evening.
Central Plains
A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front across the central Plains.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.
..Leitman.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, April 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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