Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020557

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MT AND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night.

Eastern Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic

Several low-amplitude impulses embedded within a belt of moderate mid-level northwest flow of 40-60 kt will move from the lower Great Lakes into the northeast and Mid Atlantic today and tonight. A surface low over James bay will trail a slow moving cold front to the southwest across lower ON, the lakes and into MI/OH with a second backdoor front stalled across the eastern Hudson Valley and southern new England. Within the warm sector, a very moist air mass will be in place over much of the Northeast contributing to large buoyancy and broad, but uncertain potential for severe thunderstorms much of the day.

A complex convective scenario is expected across the region modulated by several rounds of thunderstorms beginning early this morning. Convection associated with a lead shortwave trough exiting southern ON will likely support scattered storms along the front across the lower Great Lakes and NY this morning. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms as they move southeastward and encounter a gradually destabilizing air mass across southern PA and possibly into VA/MD.

Air mass recovery is expected behind this initial condition as the primary upper trough moves from WI and lower MI into western NY/PA later in the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will aide in destabilization with upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE by afternoon from lower MI into western parts of NY and PA. Storm development is expected ahead of the approaching trough and cold front as well as on any residual outflow from the morning storms. A mix of supercells and line segments is expected with all hazards possible.

A greater tornado risk may evolve in the evening across southern NY and central PA, contingent upon air mass recovery in the wake of the prior storms and presence of a more supercellular mode. NAM/RAP forecast soundings do show some elongation of low-level hodographs, and any modifying old pool or outflow boundary could further enhance low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Higher tornado probabilities were considered, but uncertainty on the aforementioned factors remains large.

MT/ND

A compact but strong shortwave trough is forecast to move rapidly northeastward from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies today and tonight. 35-50 kt mid-level flow will accompany this feature and overspread a modestly moist, but warm and unstable air mass across much of central and eastern MT. Ascent from the approaching shortwave trough will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the higher terrain of western MT through the afternoon. Despite modest buoyancy, steep lapse rate profiles and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will enhance severe-wind-gust potential with these storms. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will promote organization and clustering with some guidance showing a fast-moving line developing and moving northeastward through the later afternoon/early evening. Scattered severe gusts are likely, with peak intensity of 65-80 mph possible.

Additional storms are possible across portions of eastern MT into the evening within a zone of warm advection along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Isolated large hail appears to be the primary hazard with those storms.

WY

Some model guidance shows high-based showers and thunderstorms developing near the southern fringes of the northern Rockies trough across WY this afternoon. Modest low-level moisture/buoyancy may limit convective intensity, but sporadic strong outflow gusts are possible given a very deeply mixed boundary layer.

Mid MO Valley into IA and southern MN

An intensifying low-level jet will likely support an increase in thunderstorms late this evening/overnight across the MO valley and parts of the Midwest. Moderate to strong elevated instability and sufficient vertical shear may exist for a few stronger storms capable of marginal severe hail. However, overall forcing for ascent is modest and with building mid-level heights, confidence in a broader organized severe threat is low.

..Lyons/Wendt.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Summary

Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020552

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

Synopsis

An upper ridge will remain centered over the MS Valley as upper troughs persist across the Northeast and Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). Multiple impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft, will pivot around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and overspread a moist boundary layer over the Upper Midwest and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions. Ample buoyancy and vertical wind shear over both areas will support at least scattered thunderstorms, several of which may be severe.

Portions of the Upper MS Valley

Guidance consensus depicts a subtle impulse cresting the upper ridge over the northern Plains and impinging on the Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating, serving as the most likely impetus for convective initiation. Storms will most likely develop somewhere along the SD/MN border to central MN, preceded by a surface warm front draped from southern MN, to southern WI and eastern IA. Surface dewpoints will exceed 70 F along this front, with 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this moisture, yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Coincident with this strong buoyancy will be 50 kts of effective bulk shear, with forecast soundings showing elongated hodographs.

The current thinking is that initial storms will be supercellular, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat (a few stones of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). However, if storms merge, a cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, perhaps even taking on bowing tendencies should it traverse the surface boundary. In this scenario, a focused severe wind swath could occur, and a couple of gusts may exceed 75 mph. Given such subtle forcing for ascent expected, and the dependency on finer mesoscale details for a higher-end severe threat, only Category 2/Slight Risk probabilities were introduced for now. If consistency in guidance consensus continues to show bow echo evolution, higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.

Parts of the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline

Another in a series of mid-level impulses will traverse the Mid-Atlantic region during the day. A diffuse differential heating zone should be in place somewhere near the PA/MD border, which will likely be the location of convective initiation by late morning or early afternoon. There is also the possibility that upstream convective complexes, remnant from Day 1 storms along the larger-scale warm front, may approach from the OH Valley and track toward the Eastern Seaboard though the day. Regardless of the convective scenario, storms should overspread 70+ F surface dewpoints (which will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Given modest northwesterly flow aloft, any storms that become sustained will be accompanied by a severe gust threat, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Higher severe probabilities are not entirely out of the question once mesoscale details on convective placement, timing, and evolution become clearer.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over parts of the Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over parts of the Midwest.

Synopsis

Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the process.

Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic

The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone, left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+ F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.

Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley

Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints), beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe wind or hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, September 3

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, September 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, September 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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