Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Summary
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041928
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.
20z Update
No changes were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 10/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026/
Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches) persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon, including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest increase in low-level flow may not occur.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041715
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast States and offshore Monday. In the wake of the upper low, northwest flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak shortwave trough will traverse the northern Great Basin on the periphery of ridging over the Southwest.
At the surface, a cold front will continue to sag southward across the Gulf Coast with high pressure intensifying behind it over the Midwest. Stable conditions are forecast for much of the central and eastern States. Substantial low-level moisture and instability will be confined to the Gulf Coast and much of FL near the front. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, though poor lapse rates and little overlap with favorable deep-layer shear suggest severe potential is unlikely.
Occasional lightning is possible over the northern Great Basin and central Rockies ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Instability will be weak, but steep mid-level lapse rates could promote some gusty surface winds with high-based showers/thunderstorms.
..Lyons.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.
Synopsis
A strong upper low, initially over the East Coast, will continue to move offshore as a second broader trough and strong jet move into the northern US from southern Canada. The increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a surface cold front will reinforce a cooler and stable high pressure air mass over much of the central and eastern CONUS. Northerly offshore surface winds extending to the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts will limit available moisture for much of the US.
Thunderstorm chances will be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL where weak shear and poor lapse rates should preclude any organized severe risk. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners region as a weak midlevel wave moves over the area steepening low/mid-level lapse rates. Storm coverage should remain low and a severe risk is unlikely given weak instability and deep-layer shear.
..Lyons.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.
For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.
..Jewell.. 10/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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