Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity, especially late this afternoon into late evening. A few strong-intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging winds, and isolated very large hail will all be possible. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur over parts North Carolina this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity, especially late this afternoon into late evening. A few strong-intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging winds, and isolated very large hail will all be possible. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur over parts North Carolina this afternoon.
Upper Midwest through tonight
A midlevel shortwave trough is cresting the ridge and will turn southeastward today while moving over the upper MS Valley, as an associated cold front likewise moves southeastward into Upper MI, WI and IA. Earlier storms in Upper MI have weakened, while a cluster is ongoing in eastern IA. Destabilization will occur in the wake of the eastern IA storms as a reservoir of low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints spreads northeastward from IA/southern MN into WI and western Upper MI. The low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and in tandem with surface heating in cloud breaks, all of which will drive MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. As is typical with lingering morning convection, there is some uncertainty regarding the specific locations of afternoon storm development in its wake. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the initial storm mode this afternoon along and just ahead of the cold front, given very long hodographs oriented largely orthogonal to the front. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will also be substantial, which combined with the moist boundary layer, steep lapse rates and large buoyancy will support the potential for a few strong-intense tornadoes. Very large hail will be possible with the more discrete supercells, while significant severe outflow gusts will be possible with any clustering of storms later this afternoon/evening.
Initial supercells will likely evolve into a cluster or two by early tonight while spreading southeastward across eastern IA, northern IL, northwest IN and Lower MI with a continued threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail.
Central NC area this afternoon/evening
Thunderstorm development is expected again this afternoon along a stalled front/differential heating zone across NC, to the west of the more persistent cloud cover in far eastern NC. NC remains near the south edge of the midlevel westerlies, with mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints coincident with temperatures at or above 90 F contributing to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. A few damaging downbursts will be possible with precipitation-loaded downdrafts in an environment with steepening low-level lapse rates.
FL Big Bend today
Tropical Depression #2 is forecast to drift slowly westward across the northeast Gulf through tomorrow and become a tropical storm. Though deep-layer wind profiles are not particularly favorable in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, where winds aloft are from the northeast, there is just enough low-level shear to support weakly rotating storms in the outer convective bands. An isolated tornado/waterspout or two may occur today in coastal areas of the FL Big Bend.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200539
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA…NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…SOUTHERN/EASTERN OHIO…WEST VIRGINIA…NORTHERN VIRGINIA…MARYLAND…AND PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid in development of moderate to strong instability.
Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+ inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb, and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now. Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also is possible.
While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are possible.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200721
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North Carolina.
Mid-Atlantic to New England
Several shortwave impulses will migrate through persistent upper troughing over the East on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast across Quebec. A trailing cold front will move east/southeast across portions of the region, become positioned from the Mid-Atlantic coast into central NC by Thursday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain a seasonally moist airmass. Moderate destabilization is expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into NC where boundary-layer moisture is greater and stronger heating may occur. Weak instability will be located over New England. Around 30-40 kt southwesterly flow from 850-500 mb will provide sufficient vertical shear for some organized cells/clusters. Isolated strong to severe storms producing damaging winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England, with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and vicinity.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, July 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, July 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, July 20
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, July 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Wednesday, July 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game