Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060541
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.
Synopsis
A prominent mid-level ridge over the central U.S. is forecast to weaken during the latter half of the period in response to the progression of two distinct short-wave troughs and associated wind maxima through the Interior West. Separate, weaker perturbations will move through the ridge axis over the northern Plains/mid-MO Valley region on Sunday, contributing to thunderstorm development in those areas. Elsewhere, a mid-level disturbance over the OH Valley Sunday morning is forecast to move into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by afternoon, also likely serving as a focus for thunderstorm development.
At the surface, a lee cyclone will persist over the northern High Plains, with that feature potentially deepening Sunday night in response to increasing height falls aloft. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast with a baroclinic zone present between those surface features from the mid-MO Valley through the Ozarks and TN Valley into the Southeast.
### Southern Appalachians into the Savannah River Valley
Temperatures in the 90s will coincide with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) by afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates. Aided by forcing attendant to the mid-level disturbance mentioned above, that thermodynamic environment will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the surface front.
Some increase in mid-level winds may accompany the disturbance with up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear forecast in the vicinity of the frontal zone. As such, the potential will exist for longer-lived multi-cells and line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail into evening.
### Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States
A similar thermodynamic environment to that previously described is anticipated ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon. Generally weak forcing for ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit the potential for a more organized severe weather threat. However, the degree of instability will support briefly intense pulse-type storms capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
### Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies
Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region Sunday afternoon into night ahead of a vigorous short-wave trough pivoting through the base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. The strongest instability (i.e., MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg) is forecast across portions of western into central MT with stronger capping with eastward extent. The presence of 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of mainly large hail through Sunday evening. While forecast hodographs exhibit considerable curvature/veering winds in the lowest 1-2-km AGL, stability concerns in the boundary layer may limit severe-wind-gust and tornado potential.
Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts.
### Northern and central High Plains
Stronger forcing for ascent is expected to remain to the west and east of the region through the daylight hours, leading to uncertainty in storm coverage in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough. The 00Z models indicate an increasing potential for at least isolated thunderstorms from mid-afternoon into evening along the lee trough. RAP-based forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and resulting MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg. The strongest deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt is forecast across eastern MT into ND with decreasing magnitudes with southward extent along the lee trough. As such, a conditional risk for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts exists. While Marginal Risk wind and hail probabilities will be maintained with this forecast, an upgrade to level 2/Slight Risk is possible in subsequent updates.
### Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri Valley
Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday, aided by forcing associated with the weak disturbance(s) cresting the mid-level ridge axis. A subset of the early-day storms is expected to persist into afternoon with additional storms forming on the leading edge of more persistent cloud cover, where pockets of stronger heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will yield MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The 00Z models suggest that storms will eventually grow upscale into an MCS that tracks south along or to the immediate cool side of the surface boundary through portions of the middle and lower MO Valley Sunday afternoon into evening. It currently appears that deep-layer shear of generally less than 30 kt and marginally steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the degree of cold pool organization and a greater/more continuous damaging-wind threat. Nonetheless, the setup appears supportive of sporadic damaging wind and severe hail occurrences.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060510
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Northern Plains to Upper Midwest
An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will break down the upper ridge across the region, shifting it eastward toward the Great Lakes. At this occurs, strengthening mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the Plains. Southerly low-level winds will maintain a corridor of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints ahead of a surface low lifting northeast across the Dakotas. Warmer midlevel temperatures may result in capping for much of the day. However, as the upper trough approaching cooling aloft and increasing large-scale ascent should erode inhibition by late afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for large hail and locally damaging gusts.
A south/southwest low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening. Though nocturnal cooling will resulting in increase inhibition after dark, warm advection aided by the strengthening low-level jet may result in one or more clusters of strong storms across the eastern portions of the Dakotas/Nebraska and into MN during the nighttime hours. It is uncertain if sufficient instability will persist overnight to support severe convection, but given the strength of mid/upper flow, some risk for damaging wind gusts could persist overnight.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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