Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

A couple of tornadoes remain possible across parts eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into early evening. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 112000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

A couple of tornadoes remain possible across parts eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into early evening. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

20Z Update

Severe probabilities were trimmed behind the primary north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms spreading eastward across eastern NC and southeastern VA. While thunderstorms have been weakening while approaching the coast, a moist air mass and clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per VWP data) will still conditionally support a couple of tornadoes within Tornado Watch #681 into early evening.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were made.

..Weinman.. 10/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026/

NC/VA vicinity

Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind threat could ensue prior to sunset.

Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin

Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas that can experience filtered daytime heating.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Summary

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111703

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.

Southwest/Great Basin

Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.

Southern High Plains

A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.

..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111909

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Lower Great Lakes.

Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley

Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will reside across the region on Tuesday in advance of an eastward-propagating upper low over the Great Basin to central Rockies vicinity. At the surface, weak lee low development is forecast across southeast CO/southwest KS, with surface troughing extending southward across the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a surface front will extend from the High Plains low east/northeast across northern KS toward northern IL during the evening. Southerly low-level flow and a strengthening low-level jet will support mid 60s to near 70 F dewpoints across the warm sector from portions of western TX into OK/KS and the Mid-MS Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly strong, rich boundary layer moisture will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Where stronger heating occurs in closer proximity to the surface trough and triple point from northwest TX into central KS, supercells will be possible amid vertically veering wind profiles. Damaging winds and a tornado or two appear possible within this zone of better instability and shear. Convection is likely to increase along the breadth of the surface front into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley as warm advection increases during the evening and overnight hours. This convection may tend to be elevated within isentropic ascent atop the surface front, further supported by boundary-parallel wind profiles. Midlevel temperatures are forecast to be cooler, and MUCAPE could approach 1000-1500 J/kg. Marginal hail and gusty winds may accompany this activity into the nighttime hours.

Lower Great Lakes

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching midlevel shortwave impulse over the Great Lakes. Deep-layer westerlies will increase through the day as this disturbance approaches, resulting in a moderately to strongly sheared environment. If sufficient heating can occur, surface dewpoints near 60 F will aid in modest destabilization, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for localized strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, October 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, October 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Monday, October 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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