Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150047
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.
Southern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is currently moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest Texas, and this activity will likely continue to move east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas, instability is weaker near the boundary, along the potential track of the severe line segment approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. In spite of this, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 40 to 50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which will support organized thunderstorm development. Although supercells will be possible early this evening, it appears that the predominant mode will be linear. The more intense line segments could produce damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal threat may continue into the overnight period across part of the Ozarks.
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
On water vapor imagery, it appears that multiple weak shortwave perturbations are moving through a ridge in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Tennessee extending northeastward into the central Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front with the greatest convective coverage in southern Kentucky. These storms are located near an axis of instability. Along this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, and surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat limited, the moist and unstable environment may be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts over the next hour or so.
..Broyles.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast, eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.
Mid-MS and OH Valleys
Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will develop over south-central IL during the day and spread east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day convection.
Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms shift east/northeast.
Southern Plains
Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141907
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Mid-Atlantic
A strong upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley early Friday will shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower Great Lakes to Southeast by Saturday morning. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front develops eastward. While a seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, possibly early day showers, cloud cover, and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur, a narrow corridor of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE may develop (most likely across the Mid-Atlantic). Thunderstorm activity will increase ahead of the cold front by early afternoon and shift east through the evening. Strong deep-layer flow will promote some storm organization, but a more robust severe risk will be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic environment. Still, given the strengthen of deep-layer flow, isolated strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon into early evening within the corridor of modest destabilization.
..Leitman.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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