Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in a corridor across western through central New York (state) and adjacent southern Vermont.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160609
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS AND WORDING
SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in a corridor across western through central New York (state) and adjacent southern Vermont.
Discussion
A significant mid-level trough and embedded low now digging across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to split as it continues inland through this period. One perturbation, perhaps including a continuing cyclonic circulation, is forecast to turn eastward across the northern Rockies through the central Canadian/U.S. border area. Another perturbation is forecast to dig southeastward across the Great Basin into early Friday. It appears that the larger-scale evolving troughing will be preceded by a significant cold frontal surge to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the northern and central Great Plains by 12Z Friday.
Downstream, initially prominent mid-level ridging centered near the southern Atlantic Seaboard is forecast to become increasingly suppressed, as one short wave trough, approaching southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region early today, turns eastward then southeastward across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into northern Mid Atlantic. It appears that this will be trailed by another perturbation, which is forecast to progress east of the Ozark Plateau through the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, before digging across the southern Appalachians, downstream of short wave ridging building across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.
Mid South into lower Great Lakes and Northeast
The primary and trailing short wave troughs advancing to the east of the Mississippi Valley are forecast to be preceded by the remnants of overnight convection across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid South at the outset of the period. The impacts of associated cloud cover and outflow on destabilization within the warm sector of a broad, but weak, surface low migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes during the day remain unclear. However, various model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggest that destabilization and strengthening shear along a warm frontal zone (as it strengthens with differential heating) may become a focus for organized strong thunderstorm development across New York state by afternoon. It appears that this may include an evolving cluster, perhaps preceded by more discrete thunderstorm activity, in an environment conducive to evolving supercell structures, with potential to produce severe hail, wind and a risk for a couple of tornadoes.
Additional thunderstorm activity may eventually develop and strengthen, accompanied by at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts by late afternoon, in a corridor of stronger daytime heating ahead of a developing cold front spreading into the upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau.
Farther west/southwest, there is not a well-defined signal in the latest model output, but a corridor of differential surface heating along weakening trailing convective outflow across the Mid South vicinity could become a focus for supercell development. It currently appears that this potential could peak across north central into northeastern Arkansas by late this afternoon, aided by moderate boundary-layer destabilization and stronger mid-level forcing for ascent associated with a cyclonic vorticity center migrating across the region.
Southern Great Plains
Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline which likely will be retreating westward across the high plains by early this evening. While this will be conditionally supportive of severe thunderstorm development, forcing to support initiation of sustained thunderstorms remains unclear, aside from, perhaps, the higher terrain near/east of the Texas Big Bend. Beneath moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow, this could include an isolated supercell or two which could propagate across the Rio Grande River, before weakening in the presence of increasing inhibition this evening.
..Kerr/Lyons.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA…KANSAS…MISSOURI…IOWA…ILLINOIS…FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…AND WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near a dryline extending southwest from western OK into west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.
A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector. This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally, large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk, both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI. Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km. Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.
Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main risk.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160705
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley
A large-scale upper trough oriented over the Upper Midwest and Plains will shift east over the Great Lakes, Midwest and TN Valley on Saturday/Saturday night. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. This front should be located from Lower MI into southeast MO Saturday morning, moving across the Ohio Valley through early evening. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front. Daytime heating into the 70s and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization (generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While instability will be modest, strong low and midlevel flow will support organized cells and/or line segments capable of strong gusts. Any discrete cellular activity also may produce marginally severe hail. These severe risk should gradually wane during the evening with eastward extent.
TX to the Lower MS Valley
Thunderstorms are expected along a southeast-advancing cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer flow will be oriented parallel to the front, and convection may largely be anafrontal or quickly undercut by the front. While weak MUCAPE is noted in forecast soundings, severe potential is not expected at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, April 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, April 17
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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