Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280542
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.
FL Peninsula
Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will encourage a surface front to settle south across the central Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and the primary concern will be between 18-00z.
Elsewhere
A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts.
Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z. High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent and moistening profiles spread into this region.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280638
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.
DISCUSSION
A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 02/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280809
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies.
Western Oklahoma/Eastern Texas Panhandle/Far Southern Kansas
A positively tilted mid-level trough will move eastward across southern California on Monday. A fetch of mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest into the south-central U.S. At the surface, moisture advection within south to southeasterly flow will continue across the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop across west-central and northwest Texas. This instability should spread northward across the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma during the early to mid evening. Although weak low-level convergence should be in place near the instability axis, forecast soundings suggest that a strong capping inversion will inhibit convective development Monday evening. Although there may be a low-end conditional threat, will hold off an introducing a threat area due the strong capping inversion that is forecast. Further northeast, elevated storms are expected to develop after midnight from north-central Kansas into western Missouri, along the northern edge of a pronounced 40 to 50 knot low-level jet.
..Broyles.. 02/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 4 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.
On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.
On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 4
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 4 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.
On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.
On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 4 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.
On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.
On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 2 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 4 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.
On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.
On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, February 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, March 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, March 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, March 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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