Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191625
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
Discussion
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.
..Guyer/Moore.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191706
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.
Discussion
Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex
It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas.
..Kerr.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190818
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Synopsis
The base of a trough oriented over the middle of the CONUS will swing eastward across TX into the Lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across the TX coastal plain toward the Sabine Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Shallow convection/showers will be possible ahead of the front from coastal and east TX into the Mid-South. However, instability will be very weak inland and thunderstorm potential appears too low to include a general thunderstorm area.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190931 SPC AC 190931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190931 SPC AC 190931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190931 SPC AC 190931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190931 SPC AC 190931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190931 SPC AC 190931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, January 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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