Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291226
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.
Synopsis
Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains. Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley.
Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging.
Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and persistence should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290556
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to progress along the U.S./Canadian border Monday through early Tuesday morning. Ahead of this wave, a surface cyclone will steadily intensify across the Plains as it migrates towards the upper MS Valley. Northward moisture return over the next 48 hours ahead of the surface low will likely result in mid to upper 50 dewpoints reaching the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region by early evening. Concurrently, westerly flow aloft will advect 7-8 C/km lapse rates eastward towards the Great Lakes region. This combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will yield a buoyant air mass within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone.
Capping and mostly dry low-level conditions will preclude thunderstorm development during the day. After 00 UTC, a strengthening of the low-level jet will augment low-level moistening and isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development is expected between the 03-06 UTC period across northeast IA into southern WI/northern IL along the warm frontal zone. Westerly effective bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots will likely support storm organization, including the potential for elevated supercells initially, with an attendant large hail risk. With time, storm motions along the zonal frontal zone will promote upscale growth into one or more clusters as convection spreads east into MI. Some damaging wind threat may materialize with this activity depending on its proximity to the surface warm front.
A more isolated hail threat appears likely across northern lower MI after 06 UTC as more focused isentropic ascent spreads north. Although convection will be elevated, elongated hodographs through the CAPE-bearing layer will promote organized cells with mainly a large hail threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday across the Great Lakes region.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290724
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the early evening hours Tuesday across the Great Lakes region.
Synopsis
A surface low is forecast to deepen across the central/northern Plains through the day Monday ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave. By early Tuesday, this low will begin accelerating eastward, reaching southern Quebec by 12 UTC Wednesday. A cold front trailing the surface cyclone will push south into the Plains and eastward across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Thunderstorm potential will be most pronounced along and ahead of the front, though more isolated thunderstorms will be possible along a dryline across portions of TX, across portions of the Southeast, and over the northern Great Basin.
Great Lakes
Residual thunderstorms from Monday night may be ongoing by 12 UTC across the Great Lakes region along and north of the surface warm front. Most guidance suggests that northward moisture advection will occur ahead of the approaching cold front as the surface low lifts east/northeast with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely by 21-00 UTC. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the front by early afternoon, and 35-45 knot effective bulk shear should promote organized convection - most likely in the form of organized clusters and/or linear segments. Large hail and severe winds will most likely be the predominant hazards given the expectation for clustered/linear storm modes, though some tornado threat may emerge across the lower Great Lakes region where low-level SRH will be regionally greatest on the northeastern fringe of the returning moisture.
Southern Plains
A weak surface trough/dryline will likely emerge across the TX Panhandle/western OK southward into west-central TX by late afternoon as a weak lee low deepens over the southern High Plains. Richer low-level moisture will likely be displaced to the east away from the boundary, and warm temperatures at the base of an EML will most likely preclude thunderstorm development until the arrival of the cold front Tuesday evening. However, a few deterministic solutions hint that diurnal heating may be strong enough to support isolated convection along the dryline by late afternoon. Wind profiles across this region hint that organized thunderstorms are possible and could pose a severe threat. While this potential is noted, ensemble support for this scenario is low, and any convection that does develop will most likely struggle to be maintained owing to weak forcing for ascent and fairly dry low/mid-level conditions.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290845 SPC AC 290845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A more seasonal synoptic regime is expected over the CONUS through the upcoming week as long-wave troughing slowly becomes established over the western two-thirds of the country. This will favor lee cyclone development and poleward moisture return ahead of occasional frontal intrusions. In general, ensemble consensus is that a leading, low-amplitude upper disturbance will propagate across the central CONUS during the D4/Wednesday to D5/Thursday period before a more amplified upper trough migrates into the Plains during the D6/Friday to D7/Saturday time frame. While there is broad agreement in this pattern among most guidance, notable discrepancies and spread among solutions limits confidence in the location, timing, or magnitude of any severe threat.
D4/Wednesday - Southern Plains
A cold front pushing east/southeast across the central U.S. on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the southern Plains into the OH Valley by Wednesday. Aloft, ascent associated with the leading upper disturbance will overspread TX/OK, leading to modest surface low development along the stalled frontal boundary. Continued moisture return coupled with easterly advection of steep mid-level lapse rates will likely yield a reservoir of buoyancy across portions of central/eastern TX/OK and into AR/LA. Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone appears probable by late afternoon, and 40-50 knot mid-level flow attendant to the wave should provide adequate wind shear for organized storms. However, guidance continues to show variability with frontal placement and is likely displaying a northward bias given the tendency for long-range guidance to underestimate low-level cold advection. Additionally, it is unclear whether storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be favorably oriented to the front to support discrete convection and a more robust severe threat.
D6/Friday and D7/Saturday - Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley
More intense surface low development is anticipated across the southern Plains and Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday as an more amplified upper wave begins to migrate east. Northward moisture return will likely continue through Friday with thunderstorm development possible in vicinity to the deepening lee cyclone. Although model variability remains fairly high at this range, ensemble guidance does show a modest QPF signal across OK/KS where the probability for adequate SBCAPE and deep-layer shear for organized convection is reasonably high.
On Saturday, the ejection of the upper wave into the Plains will result in the northeastward acceleration of the lee cyclone. Rapid moisture return within a strengthening low-level wind field is possible as the low reaches the Great Lakes region by late Saturday. Based on forecast soundings and ensemble QPF signals, some severe thunderstorm potential is noted along and ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. However, high variability among guidance over the past 24 hours and the potential for a sub-optimal displacement of the primary upper jet with the expanding warm sector casts considerable uncertainty on the overall severe threat.
..Moore.. 03/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, March 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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