Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Summary
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.
AR to north GA this afternoon/evening
A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening. Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor with minimal convective inhibition.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail (some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a couple of tornadoes.
Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a conditional threat for large hail.
Southern AZ this afternoon/evening
High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja. Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail and gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.
Synopsis
A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas. Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Midwest
The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance.
Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly. However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface pressure falls/ascent will be maximized.
Southern Plains
12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+ inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX.
..Moore.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.
East Texas northeast to the Ohio Valley vicinity
A split-flow regime will continue into Wednesday, with upper troughing over the central U.S. remaining bifurcated through much of the period. In the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave trough will migrate from TX to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the northern stream upper trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop east across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from east TX into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. At the surface, a cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern Lower MI into western OK. This front will advance southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.
Strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture as far north as the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of the ArkLaTex into the Midwest. This, along with the warm advection regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with northeast extent into parts of the Ohio Valley vicinity. Somewhat stronger destabilization is likely across the Lower MS Valley where richer Gulf moisture will reside. Strong vertical wind profiles will support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. Linear convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent overspreading the boundary. If discrete cells can form, some tornado potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley, and perhaps near a secondary surface low over the lower MS Valley, though this scenario remains highly uncertain.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thu
Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.
Days 5-8/Fri-Mon
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thu
Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.
Days 5-8/Fri-Mon
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thu
Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.
Days 5-8/Fri-Mon
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thu
Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.
Days 5-8/Fri-Mon
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Thu
Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.
Days 5-8/Fri-Mon
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, March 10
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, March 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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