Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening in parts of west Texas into south-central and southeast Texas. Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and northwestern U.S.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening in parts of west Texas into south-central and southeast Texas. Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and northwestern U.S.
Texas
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over west and southwest Texas. Ahead of the trough, a broken line of strong to severe storms is ongoing from the Texas Hill Country southwestward to near the Rio Grande River. Moderate to strong instability is analyzed by the RAP towards the south end of this line, where MLCAPE is in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As the line moves eastward into south-central Texas this evening, the more organized embedded storms may have supercell characteristics and be capable of large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. Further north into parts of the Texas Hill Country, instability is considerably less which will temper the severe potential somewhat. These storms may be able to produce isolated severe gusts and hail. This entire line will eventually move eastward across the Texas Coastal Plain by late in the period, where an a few strong wind gusts will be possible…see MCD 868.
Upper Mississippi Valley
At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from north-central Minnesota east-southeastward into east-central Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. An axis of instability is analyzed immediately south of the front, with another pocket of instability located in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. The instability along with steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible.
Northern Rockies
A mid-level low is currently over northern California with south-southeasterly mid-level flow located over the northwestern U.S. Within this flow, an axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP across western Montana, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings in western Montana show moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for isolated severe wind gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible, mainly in northwest Montana where instability is a bit stronger.
..Broyles.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.
Mid Atlantic Region
A strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring over much of the northeast states. At the surface, the primary surface boundary will extend from southern OH across WV/MD into VA/DE. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms from eastern KY to the coast. Storms will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. This would support a risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher terrain of western NC with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.
TX Panhandle
A shortwave trough currently over eastern NM will continue to rotate northward across the Plains on Wednesday, with the upper thermal trough present over eastern CO/western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles. A convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across the northern TX panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating occurring to the south of front. This should provide sufficient destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of multicell storms capable of large hail.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261851
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
Synopsis
A broad upper ridge will be present on Thursday over the central U.S., with an upper low over CA and an upper trough over the northeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the southeast, southern and central Plains, and northwest regions.
OR/WA/ID/MT
One area of concern for the potential of severe storms will be across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest states. Models depict one or more shortwave troughs rotating around the CA upper low, providing ascent and strengthening wind fields across parts of eastern OR/WA, northern ID, and western MT. Confidence is rising that a zone of sufficient instability/shear will develop to support strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds appear possible with the strongest storms.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 26
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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