Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141258
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.
Eastern New Mexico and Texas
A low-latitude shortwave trough extending across the Four Corners area into northwest Mexico will continue eastward, reaching the southern High Plains tonight. Preceding it, a relatively moist air mass by mid-November standards will exist across the Texas coastal Plain, and to a lesser extent, west-northwestward in vicinity of a front into the Texas South Plains and far eastern New Mexico.
Multi-layer cloud cover and some precipitation will be prevalent especially early today, but some late-day clearing is expected across eastern New Mexico toward the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin as the upper trough approaches the region. Low-topped thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by mid/late afternoon from eastern New Mexico into far west Texas. Cool thermal profiles aloft, diurnally maximized lapse rates, and relatively long hodographs could support some hail potential and/or gusty thunderstorm winds, particularly should a more-optimistic, albeit weak overall, destabilization scenario materialize. Areas including far east-central New Mexico and the Texas South Plains/Low Rolling Plains will be re-evaluated today for consideration of severe probabilities.
Some stronger storms could sustain tonight, perhaps mainly on the south end of a semi-organized cluster/band of storms, into parts of the Texas Low Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau. A low-level jet will also be strengthening tonight and will enlarge low-level hodographs across west-central/central Texas, but current thinking is the cool nature of the boundary layer and limited buoyancy will limit severe thunderstorm potential.
..Guyer/Mead.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and south Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140657
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and south Texas.
Synopsis
An upper trough over the southern Plains will continue southeastward and deamplify as upper ridging builds over the Midwest. A weak surface low will move from the southern TX Panhandle into central TX as surface high pressure builds to the north. To the west, a second, broader trough will intensify as it moves onshore over the West Coast. Onshore flow will favor only modest moisture transport inland with weak buoyancy expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible from northern CA to WA state. Severe storms are not expected.
Central and Southern TX
Early morning showers and residual thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the surface low and along the Red River vicinity. A surface front will begin to move southward as high pressure builds to the north. Broad-scale ascent attendant to the wave and strong low-level warm advection over the front will support modest buoyancy for a few hours. While some small hail appears possible with this early activity, instability is forecast to become increasingly scant/shallow with time over southern OK and North TX.
Farther south, more robust inland moisture return and some heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization across south TX and the middle TX Coast. Continued low-level warm air advection ahead of the advancing upper trough should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop by midday. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will likely support some more organized elements with a mix of semi-discrete cells and clusters. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms. While not overly robust, forecast soundings show modest turning in the lowest 1-2 km of the wind profile. Given the low-level shear and the upper 60s F surface dewpoints, a brief tornado is possible.
The warm sector is forecast to become increasingly narrow into the evening as the cold front from the north accelerates southward. This will favor undercutting and some potential for upscale growth as storms approach the coast. Elevated buoyancy may linger behind the effective front into the overnight hours with a low-end risk for hail with the remaining storms.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140825
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
Synopsis
Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen considerably over the central US Monday as troughing deepens along the CA coast. The shortwave trough over the Gulf is forecast to weaken as it meanders eastward underneath the building ridge over the central CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will continue offshore through the Gulf. In its wake, an expansive area of high pressure centered over the OH Valley will intensify to 1035-1038 mb. The increasingly strong surface pressure gradient will reinforce offshore flow over much of the US, limiting available surface moisture. As a result, cool, dry and stable conditions are forecast for much of the country with thunderstorm potential likely remaining offshore.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140954 SPC AC 140954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level ridging is expected to persist for several days early next week as the overall upper-air pattern becomes increasingly amplified. An upper trough over the West Coast will eject eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies mid week, deepening a surface low across the High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but continued offshore flow will likely restrict available surface moisture with this system.
Later in the week and into next weekend, a second stronger upper low is forecast to move onshore as the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the southeast. This may allow for more substantial return moisture and sufficient destabilization for isolated severe storms across portions of the central/southern Plains D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday. However, uncertainty on the timing of the upper trough, the quality of the low-level moisture and the resulting buoyancy remains very high.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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