Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061613
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
Synopsis
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL Peninsula today.
..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061649
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time.
Florida
An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening.
Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates, and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060747
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period. To the southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin, downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.
Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and across much of the remainder of the U.S.
Florida
It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060905 SPC AC 060905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060905 SPC AC 060905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060905 SPC AC 060905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060905 SPC AC 060905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060905 SPC AC 060905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.
Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.
..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, December 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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