Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely from Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast and southeast states, and scattered storms may produce damaging winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into western North Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181958

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS…INTO NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely from Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast and southeast states, and scattered storms may produce damaging winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into western North Texas.

20z Update TX/OK

Forecast confidence has increased late this afternoon into tonight that one or more semi-organized clusters of thunderstorms will develop and spread southeastward across parts of western North TX with a risk for damaging gusts. Strong convergence near an anomalously deep surface low and sagging cold front will support numerous thunderstorms tonight. Despite marginal deep-layer shear for organization, a hot and very unstable air mass in vicinity of the surface low will allow for strong cold pool development, potentially supporting severe outflow gusts. More isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail remain possible farther north into OK. Have upgraded wind probabilities to 15% and a categorical Level 2 Slight Risk for portions of western North TX.

Southeast

Convection associated with the remnants of Arthur will persist through tonight along a stalled frontal zone in the Southeast. While clustering has resulted in more linear structures, enhanced flow aloft and pockets of stronger low-level shear near the front may still support occasional rotating updrafts, with the risk for a couple of tornadoes or damaging gusts from eastern AL, into GA and the western Carolinas through tonight. Have reduced maximum tornado probabilities, but will maintain a broad 5% for occasional supercell structures along/near the front.

New England

The broken band of storms ahead of the cold front should continue eastward and gradually weaken into this evening. Southern portions of the line over MA, CT and RI may remain stronger given better buoyancy, but storm coverage here should become more isolated with time. Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible. Have trimmed probabilities behind the cold front where the risk has decreased. No other changes were made, see the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/

NY/New England

A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY. Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong, contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones. This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower, but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.

KY into Mid Atlantic

A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main risk.

Gulf Coast into Carolinas

The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system moves northeastward.

TX/OK

Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the evening.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…ARKLATEX INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.

Synopsis

The primary upper-level trough is expected to move off the Northeast coast on Friday. Another compact shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. A remnant tropical low will move into the Carolinas. A stalled cold front will extend from the Carolinas into the southern Plains with another weak cold front from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains.

Coastal Carolinas

With the remnants of a tropical low beginning to phase with the upper trough in the east, a window of severe risk will occur during the morning in the coastal regions of the Carolinas. Enhanced low-level flow associated with the remnant circulation will promote a risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado near the circulation itself and along a pseudo warm front.

Upper Mississippi Valley

While moisture return is a bit uncertain, generally 50s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. A compact, moderately strong shortwave trough will likely promote thunderstorm development during the afternoon along the surface trough/weak cold front. The potent mid-level jet will bring 45-55 kt of effective shear to the region. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected despite the limited moisture as temperatures aloft (-18 to -20 C at 500 mb) will accompany the trough. Isolated to widely scattered supercells are possible. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible.

ArkLaTex into Southeast

An MCV is anticipated along the Red River during the morning. This feature, coupled with heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass along and south of a stalled cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, particularly away from the cold front, and storm organization will depend on the MCV or mesoscale clustering. Damaging downburst winds are the main hazard with this activity. Similar activity can be expected along the Atlantic sea breeze front from near Jacksonville to the Space Coast.

Northwest Kansas into central Nebraska

Modest moisture return on the western flank of the surface high will potentially allow thunderstorms to develop along the surface trough/weak cold front. Surface convergence will be weak and mid-level ascent will be nebulous at best. Coverage is likely to be isolated if storms can form. Moderate mid-level winds will promote 40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm mode would likely be supercellular with a risk of severe wind gusts and large hail.

Northern Sierra/Northwest Nevada

A modest upper-level low and mid-level moisture will promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the northern Sierra. Some of this activity may become marginally organized given stronger mid-level winds. Small hail and strong outflow winds are possible. Overall coverage of marginally severe activity still appears too low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/18/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181934

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

Central Plains

Modest shortwave ridging within the Plains will break down as a subtle shortwave approaches the central Rockies during the afternoon. Given the moderately strong mid-level flow across the Divide, a deepening surface low along the Colorado/Kansas border will aid moisture return into the central Plains south of a stalled surface boundary that will retreat northward as a warm front. With mid/upper 50s F dewpoints reaching eastern Colorado/Wyoming, convection is expected to develop with the terrain of southeast Wyoming and perhaps along the surface trough as well. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear near 50 kt will support initial supercell structures. These storms will be capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds, particularly as they interact with richer moisture to the east. Moist southeasterly (backing to near easterly along the surface boundary) will also support a threat for tornadoes. The tornado threat is somewhat uncertain given the somewhat weak low-level flow. However, should storms remain discrete into the evening, strong low-level winds/larger hodographs would support a greater tornado threat and potentially a stronger tornado. With time, models are in general agreement that some upscale growth will occur. This appears most likely to occur near the surface boundary. As this occurs, a more organized wind threat would develop and wind gusts of 75+ mph would become more probable. As confidence in the corridor of a potential MCS track increases, higher probabilities will likely be needed.

..Wendt.. 06/18/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180703 SPC AC 180703

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday - Mid-MS Valley vicinity

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MO Valley Sunday morning across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley regions through the period. A surface low over the central Plains will spread east in tandem with the upper system, though the latitude at which this occurs is uncertain. Furthermore, an ongoing MCS could be located somewhere across eastern NE/KS and the adjacent MO Valley Sunday morning. How this convection evolves through the day is also uncertain. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley, with moderate to strong destabilization likely to the south of a surface boundary oriented northwest to southeast across portions of the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Some where risk appears likely, either from reinvigorated morning convection, or from new storm development along outflow. Given uncertainty into placement of key features, will hold off on introducing 15 percent probabilities at this time, but areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday - Plains to the Midwest and Southeast

Modest west to northwesterly flow aloft will persist east of the Rockies through much of the forecast period. Organized severe potential is uncertain due to a lack of notable large scale forcing. While some severe risk is likely each day, this risk will be driven by mesoscale processes and convective evolution each day. Overall predictability is low through most of next week.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 18

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 19

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, June 20

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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