Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.
Synopsis
A high-amplitude midlevel pattern will persist on Wednesday, characterized by a deep trough across the eastern Pacific and a building ridge across the Plains. This pattern will maintain a broad belt of intense cyclonic flow across California into the Interior West.
Throughout the day, an initial shortwave trough will continue lifting northeast from the eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest, while the attendant surface low lifts more northward along the coast toward Washington. Late on Wednesday a second, more potent trough will approach central and northern California – primarily after dark. This setup will facilitate a prolonged period rain and embedded thunderstorms across California and portions of the Interior West into Thursday.
California Coast
Strong ascent and strengthening onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization Wednesday morning ahead of a surface cold front. An ongoing band of convection is expected across the central and southern coastal areas associated with the strongly forced ascent along the advancing cold front. Given the presence of a strong low-level jet (locally exceeding 50 knots at 1 km AGL), there is a risk that these strong winds will mix to the surface within the strongest convection resulting in damaging wind gusts. Forecast soundings across the area do maintain some low-level curvature ahead of the convective line, such that any convective element able to interact with true surface-based buoyancy would have the potential for a brief tornado.
In the wake of the morning convection, a secondary surface low will intensify during the afternoon and overnight as it approaches the northern California coast. This will likely trigger another round or two of broken, low-topped convection along a second cold front. Despite weaker instability than with the morning convection, the strength of the wind fields would suggest an ongoing risk for isolated wind damage as this convection moves inland.
Central Valley
Cold midlevel temperatures and increasing height falls will overspread surface dewpoints in the 40s to perhaps low 50s. Although buoyancy will remain modest (MUCAPE at or below 500 J/kg), the presence of a powerful midlevel jet in excess of 100 knots will support long hodographs. This combination of modest instability and large/long hodographs may support a threat for semi-organized convection, including some potential for supercells. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts, hail, and a brief tornado before the convection shifts east into the higher terrain and weakens.
..Marsh/Squitieri.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central California Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central California Coast.
California Coast
A mid-level low and an associated trough over the eastern Pacific will gradually approach the West Coast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough, a stream of moisture will feed into California, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day. At the surface, a front is forecast to move southward along the central California coast. To the south of the front near the coast, surface dewpoints will be in the 50s F. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet is forecast to be in proximity to the higher surface dewpoints. This feature will create strong low-level shear along the central California coast, where some forecast soundings have curved hodographs and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity above 250 m2/s2. This could support a marginal severe threat, with cells that rotate within short line segments. A brief tornado or isolated severe wind gust will be possible.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Summary
No severe storms are expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe storms are expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. on Friday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the Northeast. A few storms may form ahead of the trough Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Appalachians. Out west, a trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest, with southwesterly flow being in place across the Intermountain West. Isolated storms will be possible across parts of California and in the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected to develop Friday or Friday night.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240942 SPC AC 240942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240942 SPC AC 240942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240942 SPC AC 240942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240942 SPC AC 240942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240942 SPC AC 240942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.
..Broyles.. 12/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, December 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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