Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260519
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
Synopsis
Broad upper troughing will remain in place across the western contiguous US today. Within this regime, a shortwave trough over the southern and central High Plains will eject northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a weak surface low. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward from this low across the central Plains into the southern High Plains, with a lee trough sharpening along its western flank. Farther west, an upper cyclone will deepen as it digs southeastward across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West.
### Southern High Plains into the Midwest
Surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs to near 60 F will remain in place ahead of the slow-moving baroclinic zone/surface boundary today. Diurnal heating of this modestly moist boundary layer will yield weak destabilization from southern and eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas northeastward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front and lee trough during the late afternoon and evening, with additional development probable farther northeast into the Midwest overnight as low-level warm air advection strengthens.
Buoyancy will be somewhat greater across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, where a few stronger cores could produce hail or gusty winds. Even there, modest deep-layer shear and warm/warming midlevel temperatures in the wake of the departing midlevel trough should limit updraft intensity and organization. Thus, severe probabilities are currently not warranted.
### Idaho and surrounding areas
Cooling midlevel temperatures and large-scale ascent accompanying the digging upper cyclone will steepen lapse rates across Idaho and adjacent areas during the afternoon. Despite limited moisture, sufficient buoyancy may materialize to support isolated low-topped thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong flow aloft could support locally gusty winds, and hail could accompany stronger thunderstorm cores. The cool surface temperatures and limited instability should limit any severe threat.
..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/26/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260512
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Synopsis
A series of upper shortwave troughs will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s across the Plains and Midwest, while 60s dewpoints remain confined to central/south TX. Warmer midlevel temperatures will preclude much destabilization from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. This will largely limit thunderstorm activity and negate severe thunderstorm potential despite stronger southwesterly flow aloft. Further south across TX, isolated thunderstorms are more likely where weak destabilization will occur amid marginally better moisture and stronger heating. However, vertical shear will remain modest as the region is displaced to the south of stronger flow across the north-central U.S. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous within a broad low-level warm advection regime. Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears low for Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260616
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude west/southwesterly upper-level flow regime will overspread much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Stronger westerlies will extend from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes, weakening with southward extent. Surface high pressure will be focused over the eastern U.S., while modest surface troughing extends from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward across portions of the southern/central Plains and into the Upper MS Valley. Isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible within this plume of modest moisture and weak destabilization. Any stronger instability is forecast to be across the southern Plains, particularly TX, where deeper moisture will be in place (compared to further north). However, weak vertical shear and a lack of focused ascent will limit severe potential. Further north across the Upper Midwest, instability will be weaker given a cooler and less moist airmass, precluding severe potential, despite stronger deep-layer west/southwesterly flow.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260750 SPC AC 260750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
A low-amplitude and weak deep-layer flow regime will be in place across much of the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday. By Friday, a weak midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern Plains, resulting in weak destabilization. The ejecting midlevel shortwave trough should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across portions of TX/OK into the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity, though severe potential appears low.
Strengthening southwesterly flow will develop over the Plains as an upper trough deepens in the West and an upper ridge amplifies across the MS Valley during the Day 6-7/Saturday-Sunday period. This will bring continued rain chances to portions of central CONUS, but severe potential should remain low due to a modest thermodynamic environment. As this western upper trough progresses eastward into early next week, a cold front will shift east/southeast across the Plains toward the MS Valley, along with thunderstorm chances. Some severe potential could accompany this activity depending on the evolution of the upper trough and development of any stronger surface cyclone. However, predictability is low via large spread among forecast guidance on Day 8/Monday, precluding severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 10/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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