Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes remain likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 182005
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes remain likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.
20z Update Midwest Lower Great Lakes
An expansive MCS remains ongoing over portions of the lower Great Lakes this afternoon. The environment ahead of the complex is unstable, but with gradually decreasing moisture/buoyancy farther east. An isolated severe risk likely exists ahead of the line across OH and lower MI through this evening.
A large cold pool behind the complex has overturned the air mass across much of northern IL, southern WI and eastern IA. This should greatly limit air mass recovery this afternoon and evening. Additional convection originating from the central Plains and mid MO valley may continue eastward, but is forecasted to weaken as it encounters the cooler air mass tonight. Isolated storms, likely elevated, could persist with a risk for hail, but the severe potential has decreased such that, probabilities were lowered.
Central Plains and Mid MO Valley
Several supercells and organized clusters have emerged across parts of KS and southern NE. A very unstable and strongly sheared environment remains in place ahead of these storms. This should support a risk for all hazards, include strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging winds. Current expectations are for the individual supercells to grow upscale into one or more clusters as they interact with a modifying outflow boundary across northeast KS and northwestern MO. While the environment becomes gradually less unstable farther north and east, very strong shear will likely support a continued risk for all hazards this evening. The western portions of the risk area has been trimmed in parts of central KS where the cold front has sagged southward.
Southwest TX.. Strong diurnal heating along southern portions of the dryline has resulted in isolated storm development this afternoon. Very large buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates will likely continue to support high-based isolated storms. Vertical shear is marginal, but sufficient for supercells with hail and damaging wind potential. Have extended severe probabilities southward along the dryline.
..Lyons.. 05/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/
Central Plains
Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today.
Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region.
Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals.
Western OK/Northwest TX
Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity.
OH Valley/Great Lakes
A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley.
At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development.
### Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England
A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as 2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic cold front.
The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England, where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible. Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also possible.
### Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains
Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development.
As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger vertical shear.
..Mead.. 05/18/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for sporadic occurrences of damaging wind. Large hail is expected to be the predominant hazard with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181913
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for sporadic occurrences of damaging wind. Large hail is expected to be the predominant hazard with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks will progress from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, with a modest enhancement to the westerly, mid-level flow as far south as southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially near the Four Corners region will weaken while moving into confluent, mid-level flow over the central and southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeast through New England and the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, with an upslope regime becoming established over the southern High Plains.
### Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, along the immediate southern fringe of the stronger mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear. The generally weak warm-sector shear and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit the potential for a more robust severe-weather threat. However, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will support locally strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds during the afternoon and early-evening hours.
### Southern High Plains into southwest Texas
Surface ridging initially over the southern High Plains Wednesday morning is forecast to weaken through the day with a narrow wedge of 50s to low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints from the Edwards Plateau into southeast NM, to the south of a weakening surface front. The moisture will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to support a corridor of moderate, surface-based instability by afternoon. A broader envelope of moderate, elevated instability is expected to develop over the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night, to the north of the front.
Low-level upslope flow into the high terrain of NM and southwest TX will be augmented by the glancing influence of the short-wave trough to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. The primary hazard will be sporadic large-hail occurrences. Additional, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon into evening across the TX South Plains into west-central TX, within a strengthening warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker than locations to west/southwest, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support vigorous updrafts capable of isolated, large hail occurrences.
..Mead.. 05/18/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
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Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 18
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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