Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091944
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
20Z Update
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
MT/ID/WY
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091718
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast. Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and another surface low off the California coast.
As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected with this activity.
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough.
Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic profiles.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091844
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
Discussion
An amplifying ridge across the central CONUS and building surface high pressure east of the Rockies will limit thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. Some lingering isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the central California coast on Wednesday morning, beneath the upper low. However, once it moves inland, it appears moisture/instability will be too limited for a sustained thunderstorm threat.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090925 SPC AC 090925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090925 SPC AC 090925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090925 SPC AC 090925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090925 SPC AC 090925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090925 SPC AC 090925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.
Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 11
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, February 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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