Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible today from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible over parts of the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110500
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND FROM IOWA TO VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible today from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible over parts of the northern Plains.
IA to the Mid-Atlantic
A complex forecast scenario is expected today from IA into the Ohio Valley and adjacent Appalachia. More than one MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period. The first across IA/southern MN, and one further southeast across parts of the Midwest (exact location is uncertain, but most likely IN/OH). Possible early day convection across IN/OH will spread east/southeast across the Ohio Valley during the morning posing risk for strong gusts. This activity is likely to emerge across Appalachia, and eventually VA and the broader Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. How much destabilization will occur across VA and the Mid-Atlantic remains uncertain given prior convection the previous day and potential convective debris across the region. Some damaging wind potential could materialize if sufficient destabilization occurs during the afternoon.
The anticipated MCS over IA/southern MN early in the forecast period is then expected to continue east/southeast across the Midwest, fueled by a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Midlevel flow is forecast to be quite strong (by August standards), with forecast guidance suggesting 700 mb greater than 60 kt spreading across the Midwest through evening. While the exact evolution of a potential severe MCS moving across the Midwest is uncertain, it is possible the morning activity over IA will develop southeast along outflow across the Ohio Valley. Given the strong kinematic field and ample instability, if a well organized MCS is maintained from IA southeast into the OH Valley, a swath of damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will be possible.
Northern Plains
East/southeasterly flow along the surface trough is forecast to maintain 60s F dewpoints across the western Dakotas and parts of NE this afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the relatively moist boundary layer, and strong heating will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across the western Dakotas. Scattered storms are expected by early evening amid supercell wind profiles. Elongated hodographs favorable for splitting cells with an accompanying risk for large to very large hail are forecast. Isolated severe gusts also could occur. Given a lack of stronger low-level jet during the nighttime hours, it appears unlikely that upscale growth will occur, and convection is expected to wane with eastward extent overnight.
..Leitman/Moore.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley
Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding potential for early-day convection across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Any morning convection will in turn influence the position of an effective frontal zone that will generally extend from parts of the mid MO Valley into the lower OH Valley. Strong heating, rich low-level moisture, and generally steep lapse rates will result in strong to extreme buoyancy to the warm side of the front, with substantial MUCAPE possible to the immediate cool side of the front.
Multiple scenarios are possible. There will be some potential for any early-day storm cluster to propagate southeastward through the day, with a damaging-wind and isolated hail threat. Diurnal development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell potential. Hail and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest diurnal storms, though there may be a tendency for clustering and perhaps organized upscale growth, with increasing wind-damage potential. While uncertainty remains high, one or more rounds of organized-severe potential could evolve in the vicinity of the frontal zone, and a 15% wind area was added where guidance currently has the greatest signal for development. ### Parts of the central/northern High Plains into the lower/mid Missouri Valley
To the north of a surface low across southeast CO and an eastward-extending warm front, moist low-level easterly flow will support potential for moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of western SD/NE into northwest KS/far northeast CO. Midlevel flow will be relatively modest, but veering wind profiles will result in sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.
Initial isolated to widely scattered discrete development could pose a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth and possible MCS development may occur during the late evening and overnight across parts of central/eastern NE and vicinity. Guidance varies regarding the organization of any nocturnal MCS, but at least isolated damaging-wind potential could spread eastward through the end of the period.
Northern SD/southern ND into parts of MN/WI/MI
While the strongest instability will remain south of the region, moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop along/ahead of a front draped from near the ND/SD border into southern MN, WI, and Lower MI. Coverage of storms is uncertain within this regime, but moderate northwesterly mid/upper-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection, with a threat for strong to locally severe gusts and hail if any sustained storms develop.
Carolinas/Southern Appalachians
The evolution of antecedent upstream convection will have a considerable influence on the position of the primary surface front and any organized severe threat across parts of the southern Appalachians and Carolinas region on Wednesday. At least isolated storm development will be possible near the front and also across favored terrain areas, with modest west-northwesterly flow aloft supporting potential for outflow-driven cells/clusters with a threat of wind damage. Any features favorably timed with the diurnal cycle (such as a persistent storm cluster or MCV) could result in a greater coverage of wind-damage potential, but confidence in the details is too low for more than 5% wind probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Central High Plains eastward to the Ohio Valley
Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA/northern MO into IL, aided by a southwesterly low-level jet. Large-scale support for this convection is generally forecast to weaken through the day, though any remnant storm cluster or MCV may become the focus for afternoon intensification and wind-damage potential into parts of the Ohio Valley, if it is well-timed with downstream diurnal destabilization.
Otherwise, moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible from parts of the Midwest into the central Plains, in the vicinity of a frontal zone. The position of the frontal zone is uncertain due to the influence of antecedent Day 1-2 convection, and large-scale ascent appears nebulous at best for much of the day within a regime of weak midlevel height rises. Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front through early evening, with somewhat greater coverage possible across parts of the central High Plains and adjacent higher terrain. Low-level warm advection may allow for an increase in storm coverage into late evening near the front, though the later activity would likely be somewhat elevated.
Deep-layer shear will generally be somewhat weaker than previous days, but still sufficient for some storm organization where deep convection can be sustained. A broad 5% area has been included in the anticipated vicinity of the frontal zone, though confidence in the details of storm development and evolution remains rather low.
Parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast
Moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast on Thursday, in association with a seasonably deep upper trough extending from eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS. Guidance varies considerably regarding the extent (if any) of destabilization across this region during the afternoon. Probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this region, if confidence increases regarding sufficient destabilization in association with the strengthening wind fields.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, August 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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