Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031922
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.
Far South Florida
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland.
Northern California/southwest Oregon
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Synopsis
A split upper-level flow pattern is expected on Monday. A broad trough across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will eventually sag southward late in the period. Another trough will move into the lower Colorado Valley. A stronger cold front will move into the Great Lakes/Midwest/southern Plains late afternoon into the overnight. A surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within the central/southern Plains.
Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley
Forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until after 00Z. A stalled weak boundary within central Missouri may serve as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon. Low-level convergence would be weak and development remains uncertain. Afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Development along the front is not expected to occur until 00Z or later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases. Storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. A locally greater severe risk could develop should a small MCS develop during the evening. There is significant spread in guidance on where this could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging surface gusts.
Lower Great Lakes Vicinity
Moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. Daytime heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface boundary during the afternoon. However, a more probable scenario is that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing increases during the evening. Modest shear and buoyancy will limit the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible.
Oklahoma into south-central Kansas
There is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface low will deepen in western Kansas/Oklahoma. A triple point is expected to be located in central Kansas. Despite greater surface moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along the dryline in Oklahoma. That said, there will be a strong dryline circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F to the west. Models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. A risk for severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…NORTHEAST TEXAS…CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
Synopsis
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the surface low into central/southwest Texas.
Southern Plains/Mid-South
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be the main focus for convective development around late afternoon. While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 6 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030750 SPC AC 030750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed – East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity
Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear.
Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast
Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.
Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front shifts east across that region. However, widespread showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and convection could become anafrontal by this time.
Days 6-8/Fri-Sun
Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend, though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist. This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely with the timing and evolution of these features however, and predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 6 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030750 SPC AC 030750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed – East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity
Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear.
Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast
Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.
Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front shifts east across that region. However, widespread showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and convection could become anafrontal by this time.
Days 6-8/Fri-Sun
Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend, though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist. This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely with the timing and evolution of these features however, and predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 6 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030750 SPC AC 030750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed – East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity
Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear.
Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast
Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.
Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front shifts east across that region. However, widespread showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and convection could become anafrontal by this time.
Days 6-8/Fri-Sun
Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend, though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist. This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely with the timing and evolution of these features however, and predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 6 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030750 SPC AC 030750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed – East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity
Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear.
Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast
Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.
Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front shifts east across that region. However, widespread showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and convection could become anafrontal by this time.
Days 6-8/Fri-Sun
Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend, though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist. This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely with the timing and evolution of these features however, and predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 6 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030750 SPC AC 030750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed – East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity
Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear.
Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast
Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.
Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front shifts east across that region. However, widespread showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and convection could become anafrontal by this time.
Days 6-8/Fri-Sun
Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend, though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist. This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely with the timing and evolution of these features however, and predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 05/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 3
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, May 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 5
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 6
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, May 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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