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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, May 25
Tuesday, May 26
Wednesday, May 27
Thursday, May 28
Friday, May 29
Saturday, May 30
Sunday, May 31
Monday, June 1

Outlook for Monday, May 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251616

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST…FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO…CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA…THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD…AND NORTHERN ROCKIES

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.

Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley

Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.

Minnesota Arrowhead

The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores.

Central Gulf Coast/Southeast

A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall severe risk.

Northern Rockies

An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with this activity.

Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas

An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period. Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.

Central Texas

A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms will be possible across West/southwest Texas into south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and night, including potential for large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.

Eastern New Mexico and West/south-central Texas

Forcing for ascent will arrive into the region Tuesday afternoon via a lead shortwave trough, with increasing thunderstorm development expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kt. Mode will likely include initially discrete supercells and multicell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a tornado risk as low-level winds/SRH increase particularly late in the day across parts of the Permian Basin. Storms should grow upscale by evening as they progress east-southeastward Tuesday night toward south-central Texas with at least some continued severe potential.

Montana/Northern Intermountain West

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon into evening, aided by forcing for ascent related to the amplifying upper trough and the upper-jet exit region. Modest instability and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and locally severe wind gusts.

Upper Midwest including parts of Wisconsin/Minnesota

While influenced by upper ridging and weak overall forcing for ascent, a moist/moderately unstable environment will exist along/south of generally southward-shifting front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is plausible particularly into peak heating. Diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates, upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE within a weak vertical shear (20-30 kt effective) could yield some pulse-type/multicellular storms capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds.

Northern Maine

As a shortwave trough/mid-level jet streak approaches from Quebec, a few strong or locally severe storms could develop into the region Tuesday late afternoon or early evening. Some questions linger regarding the degree of destabilization of timing of relevant features, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for a potential need for severe probabilities.

..Guyer.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250719

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low.

Discussion

The western US trough will become cut off and shift southward into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. A few strong gusts will be possible with storms across northern Idaho into western Montana. Overall, deep layer shear will largely be west of the marginal instability across central/eastern Montana, which will likely keep organized severe potential low. Model guidance that typically exhibits a moist-bias does suggest that higher instability does nudge into northern Montana and northern Idaho. Should more model consensus in this scenario increase, low probabilities may need to be introduced in upcoming outlook updates.

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the southeast Wednesday afternoon. Overall, weak flow beneath the mid-level ridge will keep severe storm potential low.

A few stronger storms will be possible across the Mid Atlantic as enhanced westerly flow from a trough across the northeast overspreads the region. Though deep layer shear will be around 35-40 kts, forecast soundings depict cloudy conditions through the morning, with skinny and elongated CAPE profiles and only marginal instability. This will likely temper the severe potential, though a few strong gusts will remain possible.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 31 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 1 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday through D5/Friday

The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.

A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.

D6/Saturday through D8/Monday

Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, May 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 31 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 1 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday through D5/Friday

The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.

A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.

D6/Saturday through D8/Monday

Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, May 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 31 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 1 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday through D5/Friday

The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.

A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.

D6/Saturday through D8/Monday

Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, May 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 31 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 1 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday through D5/Friday

The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.

A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.

D6/Saturday through D8/Monday

Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 28 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 29 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 30 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 31 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, June 1 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday through D5/Friday

The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.

A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.

D6/Saturday through D8/Monday

Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, May 25
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 26
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 27
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, May 28
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 29
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 30
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 31
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 1
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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