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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, December 5
Saturday, December 6
Sunday, December 7
Monday, December 8
Tuesday, December 9
Wednesday, December 10
Thursday, December 11
Friday, December 12

Outlook for Friday, December 5

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060025

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

01 Update

Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary, but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts.

..Darrow.. 12/06/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, December 6

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051650

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Synopsis

A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley.

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Sunday, December 7

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051904

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.

Synopsis

Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.

Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be sufficiently deep for lightning production.

Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the organized-severe threat.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Monday, December 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 8 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 9 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 10 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 11 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 12 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, December 9

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 8 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 9 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 10 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 11 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 12 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, December 10

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 8 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 9 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 10 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 11 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 12 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, December 11

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 8 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 9 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 10 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 11 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 12 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, December 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 8 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 9 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 10 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 11 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 12 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 5
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, December 6
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, December 7
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 8
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 9
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 10
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 11
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 12
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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