Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261341
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING
SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley
Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late tonight into early Monday morning.
A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface based.
A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak diurnal heating.
Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can form this afternoon persist into the evening.
Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist.
Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be sustained.
ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast
A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Summary
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI…MUCH OF ILLINOIS…AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA
### SUMMARY
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Discussion
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America.
Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.
The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.
Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts.
The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.
Discussion
Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast states.
There remains notable spread within the latest model output concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, April 26
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, April 27
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Tuesday, April 28
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, May 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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