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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110542

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

Synopsis

An upper trough is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off the California Coast. This wave will gradually de-amplify over the next 24 hours as it progresses northeastward into the northern Rockies. Further south, a lower-amplitude upper disturbance is noted off the coast of Baja CA, and will migrate northeast into southwest TX through this evening. Ahead of these features, modest lee troughing along the High Plains and the southeastward shift of surface high from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley will yield an extended fetch of southerly low-level flow from the TX coast into the upper MS Valley, resulting in northward moisture return as well as a broad zone of isentropic ascent from the Plains into the upper MS Valley.

Southern High Plains

Thunderstorm development appears likely by mid-afternoon across southwest TX as ascent associated with the upper disturbance off the coast of Baja CA migrates out of northern Mexico and overspreads returning moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear. However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale growth by early evening into one or more convective lines. As this transition occurs, strong to severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may be possible. Based on latest guidance, the wind/tornado threat may be maximized along and south of the I-20 corridor where the signal for clustering/banding is greatest in latest CAM and ensemble guidance.

Central Plains to the Upper MS Valley

Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to 40-50 knots by this evening and will support steady moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper MS Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong (around 30 knots), it should be sufficient for a few transient organized cells capable of large hail.

A more conditional supercell threat may materialize across portions of the lower MO valley where some CAM guidance depicts convection developing late afternoon along the surface warm front. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately buoyant and strongly sheared environment may be in place that could support a well-organized supercell. However, poor ensemble consensus limits confidence in this scenario.

Central to northern Rockies

00z RAOBs from the Great Basin/Four Corners region sampled steep mid-level lapse rates with modest mid-level moisture. While fairly dry, this environment was sufficient for convection yesterday and will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition and maximizes surface-based buoyancy. Ascent ahead of the decaying upper wave will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, and a combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and deep, well-mixed boundary layers will promote strong to severe downburst winds. A fairly strong wind signal in latest HREF guidance co-located with transient UH streaks lent enough confidence to expand 5% wind probabilities northwestward to address this concern.

CA Coast

A progressive upper wave will move into northern CA late this afternoon into the overnight hours. As this occurs, ascent within the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, should support isolated thunderstorms across northern CA. Winds within the lowest 1-2 km should increase to around 40 knots as the wave moves onshore, which may be augmented by convective downdrafts to yield a few damaging gusts along the coast.

..Moore/Halbert.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

Synopsis

An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across southern MN into WI.

Central/Southern Plains

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move across OK/TX during the morning.

In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex, but this scenario remains very uncertain.

South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity

A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening. If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours.

Upper Midwest

Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective development may be limited in the wake of that feature. Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110725

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.

Synopsis

An upper trough from the northern Rockies to southern CA will pivot east on Monday, overspreading the Four Corners vicinity by early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low over the Mid-MO Valley will shift east along a frontal wave across MN/WI. Persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the Rockies into the Plains will maintain surface lee troughing across the Plains. Meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints from the southern Plains toward Lake Michigan.

Upper Midwest

Some spread among various medium-range guidance in the placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty regarding the northward extent of severe potential on Monday. Nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the vicinity of a surface warm front. Storm coverage is uncertain, partly due to possibly capping. However, persistent moderate southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the boundary. Some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential. However, this scenario is uncertain. Some severe risk will persist eastward along the warm front into MI overnight. These elevated storms will mainly pose a hail risk.

Central/Southern Plains

Capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending across eastern KS into western OK/TX. The exception may be across portions of western TX into southwest OK where modest height falls could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies. Mid 60s F dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Strong heating along and west of the dryline will support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z could be sufficient for isolated storm development. Supercell wind profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms develop.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, April 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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