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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur over the northern Appalachians and the Texas Panhandle.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur over the northern Appalachians and the Texas Panhandle.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. Thunder and severe probabilities were trimmed over the OH Valley to account for the passage of a broken squall line. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over portions of eastern KS and immediate surrounding areas, as confidence for organized elevated convection along the easternmost edge of a low-level WAA regime continues to decrease.

..Squitieri.. 05/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/

WV/PA/NY

Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.

At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day, somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures dominate.

Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.

Great Basin into the northern Rockies

Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.

Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection, which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the strongest mid-level flow is expected.

TX Panhandle

Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

Synopsis

Prominent mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift eastward Thursday as a flanking upper low moves eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A second upper trough, and associated southern stream shortwave, will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Ascent from this trough will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the central High Plains, south of a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the lee low will allow destabilization and increased thunderstorm chances along a trailing dryline from the central Plains to the southern High Plains.

Central KS into the MO and central MS Valley

As the southern lee low deepens ahead of the southern stream shortwave trough, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will quickly return northward into central KS. Model guidance varies considerably on the depth and quality of the low-level moisture. However, dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F appear plausible by late afternoon and continuing to increase into the evening. This, in combination with ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates, will support moderate destabilization (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) along the dryline/triple point. Low-level southerly flow, veering to 40-50 kt in the mid-levels and orthogonal to the dryline will promote supercell wind profiles.

While capping is expected to remain fairly strong, casting some uncertainty on storm coverage, ascent from the approaching shortwave trough along with diurnal heating should remove inhibition. Convective development is possible near the surface low, or originating within the more deeply mixed air mass to the west of the dryline, by late afternoon/early evening. Large hail would be likely initially, along with some potential for severe wind gusts given the dry boundary layer. As these storms encounter the increasing surface moisture, gradual intensification of a few supercells is possible. The increase in the low-level jet after 00z could support additional development, while also increasing low-level shear. A tornado is possible with any supercells able to remain discrete near sunset given 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2.

Eventually, storms should congeal into a cluster and spread eastward into MO and the mid MS Valley overnight. Some hail and damaging gust threat remain possible into early D3/Friday.

Southern and central High Plains

To the west of the dryline, robust heating and deep vertical mixing should support the development of weak instability atop a relatively dry boundary layer. By mid afternoon, high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected from eastern CO, western KS into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern NM. While buoyancy appears quite limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3 km will likely support stronger downdrafts with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible given the dry sub cloud layer.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest

Multiple foci for severe storm development are evident in medium-range model guidance, with considerable variance in the positioning of these features, Friday and Friday night. A cluster of storms may be ongoing in the morning hours over the Midwest or MO/central MS Valleys, further complicating the severe risk. A cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Midwest and central Plains into parts of southern NE and northeastern CO. Continued low-level moisture advection along and north of the boundary will likely result in adequate destabilization for thunderstorms. While displaced from the stronger flow aloft near a northern stream upper trough, enough mid-level flow is evident on area model soundings to support supercells and organized clusters, some of which may be behind the front. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with one or more clusters of strong to severe storms.

Farther south, into KS and western MO, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are likely to be in place ahead of northern portions of a dryline and surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Additional storms are expected to form further east along the northern edge of the low-level jet. Located between the primary upper troughs, mid-level flow is weaker here (20-30 kt at 500 mb), suggesting a messy storm mode, but with some supercell potential. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any supercells or clusters that develop/spread eastward into the evening and overnight.

Central and southern High Plains

Near the dryline and lee low, from eastern CO/western KS into western OK, deep mixing and ascent from the approach of the southern stream shortwave trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Uncertainty on moisture depth is high, with some guidance showing modest buoyancy atop a deeply mixed boundary layer. Should this occur, weak 500 mb winds could allow for a few multicell clusters with damaging gusts across the central and southern Plains.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, May 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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