Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110529
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
CA/Great Basin
Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low. Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear, but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.
Southeast
Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge, but this activity is expected to remain isolated.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Overall thunderstorms potential appears low on Thursday, largely driven by upper level ridging over the central CONUS and a dry/stable airmass east of the Rockies. An upper trough is forecast to develop east across portions of the Great Basin into southern CA. Cooling aloft may support a brief period of weak instability and a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out across the UT vicinity. However, chances for 10 percent or greater coverage appear low given midlevel drying after about 15z.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110738
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas.
West TX Vicinity
Friday will begin with upper level ridging centered over the central/southern High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into west TX will transport modest boundary layer moisture northwestward into the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin, and northward into the TX South Plains and Red River Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough oriented over southern CA/northwest Mexico will steadily shift east toward the southern Rockies by early Saturday. As this occurs, the upper ridge will shift east and midlevel moistening/cooling will occur after 00z. Furthermore, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across western TX.
Elevated instability is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening across the region in response to increasing moisture and cooling aloft. As large-scale ascent overspreads the southern Rockies/High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Convection will likely remain elevated given post-sunset timing and nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 3km are present in forecast soundings, along with steep midlevel lapse rates. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce marginally severe hail to near 1-inch diameter during the evening/overnight hours.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, February 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, February 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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