Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170050
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of tonight.
01Z Update
Convection associated with a strong cold front has generally weakened or moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this evening. Sporadic thunderstorm activity could persist through the remainder of the evening across these areas, though the generally post-frontal nature of the remaining convection should limit severe potential. Otherwise, ongoing storms across the FL Peninsula should generally weaken through the evening, though some storm potential may persist overnight across the FL Keys and near-coastal areas.
..Dean.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.
Synopsis
The majority of the CONUS will be dominated by a cool/dry air mass with no potential for deep convection in the wake of a cold frontal passage off the southeast Atlantic coast. One exception will be across central/south FL where moist profiles (PW greater than 2 inches) and ascent along the cold front will support scattered thunderstorms. A second possible exception will be across the Desert Southwest as midlevel moisture and ascent increase gradually near and east of a weak closed low over northern Baja. Buoyancy rooted in the midlevels will be weak but could become sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes the latter half of the period.
..Thompson.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161922
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
Synopsis
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values in excess of 2 inches. Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest coast late in the period. Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.
..Thompson.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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