Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
20z Update
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/
Synopsis and Discussion
Thunderstorm potential will remain minimal today for a majority of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near parts of the Gulf Coast as a cold front continues to advance offshore, with a low chance for additional elevated thunderstorms late tonight into early Monday morning for portions of coastal TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist mainly this afternoon/early evening across the southern FL Peninsula/Keys, and separately across parts of UT. Limited instability and/or shear will preclude severe thunderstorms across all these regions.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301712
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina coast through the early morning hours Tuesday.
FL Panhandle Coast
Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection; however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to be withheld.
..Moore.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears limited.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301921
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears limited.
Synopsis
A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a marginally buoyant air mass.
Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia
An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon. More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic environment.
..Moore.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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