Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Summary
Multiple supercells with large hail potential across the northern/central High Plains should evolve into a bowing cluster tonight while spreading eastward across Nebraska and eventually into Iowa by early Thursday morning. This cluster will be capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130058
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Multiple supercells with large hail potential across the northern/central High Plains should evolve into a bowing cluster tonight while spreading eastward across Nebraska and eventually into Iowa by early Thursday morning. This cluster will be capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds.
Northern/Central Plains into Iowa
A mix of clusters and supercells is ongoing this evening from far northeast CO into western NE. The environment downstream into central/eastern NE remains favorable to maintain severe convection along/near a surface front. Large hail will remain possible with any sustained supercells given 35-45+ kt of deep-layer shear, and eventual upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears probable tonight with modestly enhanced east-southeasterly low-level flow providing an influx of warm/moist air. If this occurs, then the threat for severe/damaging winds would increase across central/eastern NE and perhaps eventually western IA, with isolated gusts of 75+ mph possible. Severe probabilities have been adjusted based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1961 for more details regarding the near-term severe threat across northeast CO/western NE.
Mid Mississippi Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley
Ongoing thunderstorm clusters across parts of the mid MS and lower OH Valleys have mostly diminished in intensity as they have become generally displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Even with the gradual weakening trend observed, a couple of stronger clusters persist. Isolated damaging winds will remain possible for a couple more hours this evening as this activity spreads slowly southward.
Northeast
Loosely organized cells may continue to pose an isolated hail/gusty wind threat for the next hour or two across southern NY and vicinity along/near a surface front. The loss of daytime heating and gradual decrease in instability should result in eventual weakening of ongoing convection.
Lower Colorado River Valley
High-based thunderstorms which developed this afternoon in a hot and well-mixed boundary layer across interior southern CA and western AZ may remain capable of producing occasional severe gusts for a couple more hours this evening.
..Gleason.. 08/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the parts of the southern Great Basin, Colorado Front Range, and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121735
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA…AND FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the parts of the southern Great Basin, Colorado Front Range, and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Central Plains into Ohio Valley
Model guidance is uniform in placing early morning convection/MCS in Iowa. This feature will likely track into parts of the Upper Midwest as has been the case the past couple of days. What will be lacking on Thursday will be steep mid-level lapse rates owing to the amount of recent convective overturning. Secondary to that, the morning convection will likely move through and airmass north of the effective surface boundary. Isolated wind damage will be possible, however. There will be strong heating in Missouri with modest southwest flow into the surface boundary. There will be a conditional threat for a supercell or two along the boundary during the afternoon. Forcing will be weak, however, and this scenario is uncertain.
As the low-level jet intensifies during the evening, areas of scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. These storms are likely to be at least slightly elevated. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will also mean activity will tend to train/interact along the boundary and be only briefly supercellular. Isolated large hail and wind damage would be the main concerns.
Front Range into central High Plains
Moist upslope flow on the north/northwest side of the surface low in the central Plains will promote moderate to locally strong destabilization within these regions. Deep-layer shear of around 30 kt can be expected along the Front Range. Scattered storms should develop by the afternoon. The strongest of this activity will be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Near the Sangre de Cristo/Raton Mesa, additional convection is expected to develop along the surface boundary with strong heating to the south. Severe winds would be the main hazard with this activity as it moves north and east. There is some signal for clustering within some of the CAMs which would promote a locally greater risk in parts of western Kansas.
Nevada
A broad upper trough along the West Coast will bring modest southwesterly flow across the southern Sierra. Model guidance suggests that a shortwave perturbation will be favorably timed with afternoon heating and help to focus a small cluster of convection moving off of the higher terrain into parts of central/southern Nevada. Low-level lapse rates are expected to be steep, particularly in the lee of the Sierra. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity.
Northeast
A broad upper trough with one or more embedded shortwave troughs will move across the region during the period. A strong mid-level jet will develop into parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic with decreasing mid-level flow to the north and east. While some drying/mixing can be expected, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible given cold temperatures aloft. The core of the mid-level jet will be offset from the larger instability. Furthermore, modest subsidence aloft is apparent in forecast soundings likely due to the region being in between shortwave troughs during the afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail are possible with the strongest storms, but severe potential appears too isolated for probabilities.
Southeast
A remnant MCV is possible near the southern Appalachians during the morning. Models differ in the overall strength of this feature. The NAM has the most robust circulation, but also weakens it with time. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected by the afternoon, but shear will remain weak. While a few strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible, confidence in an area of greater concentration/organization remains quite low at present time.
..Wendt.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE MIDWEST…OHIO VALLEY…AND MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
Midwest/Ohio Valley
Convection is expected to be ongoing during the early morning in parts of these regions. While these storms will be elevated, sufficient buoyancy/shear will promote an isolated severe risk with the strongest storms. Whether afternoon destabilization is enough to promote additional storm development is not clear. An MCV will likely be moving into Iowa/Missouri out of the central Plains. This may help develop afternoon storms in the mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. Later in the evening, a strengthening low-level jet should lead to scattered convection along the boundary. These storms will again be elevated but still pose some severe risk.
Front Range into central High Plains
A similar setup to Thursday will be present on Friday. Low-level moisture will be maintained up against the higher terrain. Scattered convection is expected during the afternoon with some activity eventually moving into the High Plains. Shear will remain rather modest, but the strongest storms could produce isolated wind/hail. There is some potential for a more organized cluster to move eastward during the evening. The structure/location of the low-level jet varies in model guidance (the NAM focuses the jet core farther west) which makes this potential uncertain.
Virginia into northern North Carolina
An MCV associated with convection in the upper Ohio Valley will move into parts of the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. This feature combined with moderate mid-level flow within the base of the Northeast upper trough will allow for a few organized storms. Both the NAM/ECMWF suggest sufficient destabilization will occur south of the stationary surface boundary. Wind damage would be the main hazard with the strongest storms.
..Wendt.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120835 SPC AC 120835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Most guidance depicts one or more midlevel vorticity maxima cresting the upper ridge and moving across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Saturday. However, there is considerable spread regarding the timing of these features and the northward extent of substantial destabilization. The general pattern suggests some potential for MCS development across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes region, but uncertainty regarding the favored corridor precludes addition of 15% probabilities at this time.
D5/Sunday
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement depicting a cold front that will move across parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Sunday. This front will impinge upon a reservoir of rich moisture and moderate to locally strong buoyancy, which could result in a severe-thunderstorm threat along/ahead of the front. Substantial timing differences remain regarding the front, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed for this scenario.
D6/Monday - D7/Tuesday
A similar upper-level pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with west-northwesterly midlevel flow extending from the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. This pattern will continue to favor at least an isolated severe threat, with low-predictability MCS potential.
..Dean.. 08/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 13
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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