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Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.
← back to overviewSPC AC 040600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.
Synopsis
Broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern CONUS will persist on Thursday, with a subtropical ridge located across the northern Gulf. Additionally, a weak mid-level vorticity maximum/short-wave trough across the southern/central Plains will continue to weaken/open and begin merging into the main belt of westerlies across the north-central US.
At the surface, a weak surface low will develop during the day across the central High Plains. This low will move south and east into north-central Kansas/south-central Nebraska overnight.
### Portions of the Northern Plains
Embedded within the broadly zonal flow are several subtle short-wave troughs. One of these troughs will move from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains. Ahead of this feature, moderate instability will develop, with surface-based CAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg likely. As weak height falls overspread the region, a surface low across eastern Wyoming will move south and east into northeast Colorado and eventually into the central Plains. To the north of this low, easterly/southeasterly upslope flow and increasing large-scale ascent will combine for thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. Supercells will be possible as the southeasterly surface winds and westerly mid-level flow results in 40-50 knots of vertical shear. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to very large hail and the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. A tornado or two will be possible with any storm that can interact with the synoptic front.
Another area for storms will likely occur farther east, across eastern South Dakota along a residual/slow-moving cold front. Moderate instability and weak-to-moderate shear will support some thunderstorm organization. Large hail will be possible with initial development, with a tendency for storms to grow upscale and transition to a damaging wind threat.
### Central Kansas northeast into Central Iowa
A remnant MCV/sub-synoptic low/mid-level trough located across the Southern Plains this morning will slowly lift north/northeast across the Central Plains during the day. Ahead of this feature, surface dewpoints will rise into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs, resulting. Diurnal heating should result in increasing instability during the day, as suggested by the HREF mean surface-based CAPE reaching between 1000-1500 J/kg and localized areas approaching 2000-2500 J/kg.
With several days of convection upstream of northeast Kansas into southwest Iowa in the elevated mixed layer source region, forecast soundings across the region reflect a largely uncapped environment during the afternoon. The result should be multiple areas/rounds of convective development during the afternoon and evening hours. The moist environment and potential for moderate instability will result in a potential for strong thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail. Additionally, forecast guidance shows an increasing low-level mass field response during the evening hours, resulting in increasing low-level curvature/shear. Thus, a tornado threat may materialize during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain discrete.
..Marsh/Moore.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.
← back to overviewSPC AC 040521
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN KANSAS… MUCH OF IA…INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.
Synopsis
A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface, the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.
### Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes
Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as 3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.
While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.
Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.
Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front, an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.
Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm advection along a westerly low-level jet.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.
← back to overviewSPC AC 040727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO…WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA…FAR WESTERN NEW YORK…NORTHEAST MONTANA…AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough and attending belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds initially over the Great Lakes will overspread the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, an intense upstream trough is forecast to move through the Canadian Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with downstream height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level winds advancing into the northern High Plains. Elsewhere, a mid-level low initially centered along the NM-TX state line is expected to evolve into an open wave while lifting northeast across the central and southern Plains.
At the surface, a cold front will push through the Great Lakes, New England, and OH Valley during the forecast period, while a lee cyclone deepens along a cold front moving through the northern High Plains.
### Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast
A westerly low-level jet will advect an increasingly moist air mass through the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast ahead of the cold front on Saturday. The moisture increase will combine with daytime heating to support a moderately unstable environment across the OH Valley, with instability diminishing with northeastward extent into New England. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon ahead of the short-wave trough, and amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. The most favorable overlap of stronger instability, vertical shear, and forcing for ascent is expected to materialize across the upper OH Valley Saturday afternoon, where supercells will be possible with a higher-probability risk for large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, isolated occurrences of large hail and/or damaging wind will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours.
### Northern High Plains
The presence of steep lapse rates and increasing boundary-layer moisture content are expected to contribute to a moderate to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon ahead of the surface low and cold front over eastern MT and western ND. Moisture wrapping around the surface low is expected to reach into the high terrain of central MT, supporting at least modest destabilization there. Initial, isolated storms are expected in the post-frontal, upslope environment in central MT Saturday afternoon, with storms potentially not developing until Saturday evening in the vicinity of the front in eastern MT and western ND, due to late-arriving forcing for ascent. Vertical shear will strengthen through the day with the kinematic environment favoring supercell storm modes with the primary hazard being large hail.
### Southern Plains.
The models indicate a band of 30-35 kt mid-level winds developing within the southeast quadrant of the upper low from southwest TX into the Red River Valley Saturday afternoon. As a result, vertical shear will be enhanced in those areas; however, the primary uncertainty regarding some severe-storm threat is the effect of early-day storms on afternoon air mass destabilization.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 7 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 9 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 11 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Day4/Sunday
A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.
### Day5/Monday
Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.
### Day6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.
### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 7 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 9 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 11 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Day4/Sunday
A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.
### Day5/Monday
Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.
### Day6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.
### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 7 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 9 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 11 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Day4/Sunday
A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.
### Day5/Monday
Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.
### Day6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.
### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 7 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 9 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 11 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Day4/Sunday
A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.
### Day5/Monday
Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.
### Day6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.
### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Sunday, June 7 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, June 9 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, June 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, June 11 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040852 SPC AC 040852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Day4/Sunday
A short-wave trough initially from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the northern Rockies is forecast to lift northeast into central Canada, while a lower-latitude wave moves through the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough will traverse the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will slowly advance across the northern Plains, while a separate cold front moves south through the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest mid/upper-level winds and associated vertical shear will lag the northern Plains cold front to the west; however, the presence of moderate to strong instability within the warm sector may compensate, yielding the potential for an organized severe-weather event Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered severe storms appear possible along the Mid-Atlantic cold front, as well as across lower elevations of central and southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, in association with the mid-level trough.
### Day5/Monday
Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement in suggesting that a mid-level trough will move onto the West Coast, with a downstream belt of stronger winds remaining confined to the Interior West. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies. Isolated severe storms appear possible along the segment of the front immediately east of a surface low over western KS where strong instability is forecast. However, generally weak forcing for ascent and marginal vertical shear may limit the potential for an organized severe-weather episode.
### Day6/Tuesday
The ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions remain in relatively good agreement in depicting the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with a belt of stronger winds aloft overspreading the northern Plains. At the surface, there is reasonably good ensemble clustering in the location of a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with a lee trough extending through the central into southern High Plains. While large-scale forcing for ascent remains somewhat nebulous, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough should be sufficient to initiate afternoon/evening thunderstorms within an environment favoring the potential for a concentrated area of severe weather.
### Day7-8/Wednesday and Thursday
The ensemble mean solutions suggest the main trough becoming quasi-stationary over the Interior West. There is considerably more spread in the deterministic models, especially by Thursday, in the location and geometry of the mid-level trough, as well as any smaller-scale disturbances embedded within it. At the surface, there is fairly large spread in ensemble member low pressure positions, and the location of any associated boundaries. In general, it appears that some severe-weather threat will continue across the northern Plains; however, confidence in a more specific details is currently too low to delineate an area.
..Mead.. 06/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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