Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021942

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

20Z Update

Thunder probabilities were removed along the NC Coast, as the low-level confluence zone and associated axis of instability has shifted offshore. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over the MS Valley region, with the remaining probabilities focused where warm-air advection at the nose of a developing low-level jet will be strongest. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may form along sea-breeze boundaries over the southern FL peninsula, and a few lightning flashes remain possible through the remainder of the period over the Intermountain West with the eastward progression of an upper trough.

..Squitieri.. 03/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/

Synopsis

An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity.

Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS

### SUMMARY

Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.

Synopsis

A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.

Northwest TX to eastern KS

Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/02/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO WESTERN AR

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard.

Synopsis

A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West.

Central TX to western AR

Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK. Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough. Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe threat.

Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley

Multiple rounds of convective potential are expected through the period. Elevated storms should be ongoing on Wednesday morning and will help define the northern extent of any surface-based destabilization into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. The degree of warm-sector insolation is questionable with potential for repeated convective regeneration ahead of the KS/NE shortwave trough. Conditionally, moderately favorable deep-layer shear could support a few supercells and/or linear clusters near the quasi-stationary front. As such, a swath of low severe probabilities remains warranted, mainly from mid-afternoon into the evening Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/02/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, March 2

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, March 3

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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