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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, October 9

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090537

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east of Isaias’ center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, October 10

Outlook Summary

The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday through Saturday night. Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado appear possible over the lower Colorado Valley Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090550

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY

### SUMMARY

The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday through Saturday night. Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado appear possible over the lower Colorado Valley Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

Synopsis

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias initially over southwest or west-central AL Saturday morning are forecast to advance north-northwest before turning north and then northeast through the TN Valley Saturday night. The system will be in the process of undergoing extratropical transition owing to its phasing with a subtropical branch trough, resulting in the broadening of an enhanced, southerly deep-layer wind field along and to the east of the cyclone track.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Rachel will approach northern Baja and the lower-CO Valley late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as it is drawn into the southern extension of a strengthening midlevel trough along the West Coast.

### Southeast

As the primary surface low develops north into the TN Valley, it will become increasingly displaced from the effective warm sector, which is forecast to advance inland through GA and the Carolinas, along and south of a warm (or retreating wedge) front. Considerable cloud cover and areas of precipitation are expected to limit daytime heating within the poleward-expanding warm sector. However, dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will largely contribute to modest instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in some areas. Where sufficient destabilization can occur, the presence of a relatively strong deep-layer wind field with sizable SRH will support supercells capable tornadoes centered largely over southern and central GA Saturday with that threat spreading into parts of the Carolinas Saturday evening and night.

A conditional intensity group 1 tornado contour was considered over portions of central GA where low-level shear is forecast to be maximized during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. However, uncertainties in the degree of air mass destabilization precluded the inclusion of that contour, as well as any higher unconditional tornado probabilities.

### Lower Colorado Valley

Deep-layer moisture is expected to increase through the forecast period within a zone of strengthening low/midlevel flow preceding the tropical system. The moisture increase will combine with daytime heating to yield pockets of moderate instability Saturday afternoon, supporting the potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts. A comparatively greater risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two is expected to materialize Saturday night into early Sunday as vertical shear and forcing for ascent strengthen across the region.

### Great Basin…

A belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow is forecast downstream from the evolving, western U.S. trough. Steepening low/midlevel lapse rates are expected to support modest instability by afternoon, which will coincide with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few strong storms capable of gusty winds Saturday afternoon and evening. If subsequent model data indicate stronger instability, low severe weather probabilities may need to be included.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level low over KY/TN Sunday morning is forecast to evolve into an open wave within a broader-scale trough progressing through the central and southern Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast. Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel initially over southern CA will become increasingly sheared within a broad belt of enhanced midlevel flow extending from the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from KY into the upper OH Valley with secondary cyclogenesis forecast on Sunday afternoon in the lee of the Blue Ridge over central VA. That cyclone will be collocated with a surface trough advancing east through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain and a warm front lifting north through the southern Mid-Atlantic.

### Delmarva into the Carolinas

Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector. Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.

### Lower Colorado and Vicinity

As detailed in the recently issued Day 2 Convective Outlook, the enhancement of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent will coincide with an at least modestly unstable air mass late Saturday night into early Sunday. That regime is likely to persist through at least Sunday morning with an associated risk for a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The overall weakening of the midlevel trough by afternoon and limited instability lead to uncertainty as to whether any severe weather threat will spread north into the Great Basin and central Rockies.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, October 9

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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