Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with a threat for large hail, isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado are expected in parts of eastern Colorado from mid afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210552
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with a threat for large hail, isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado are expected in parts of eastern Colorado from mid afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon.
Central and Southern High Plains
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, a lee surface low will form over eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm, convection will initiate in the higher terrain near Denver and Colorado Springs. From this convection, storms will develop and move eastward into the central High Plains during the afternoon. In eastern Colorado, a north-to-south axis of instability will be in place by afternoon, where model forecasts have MLCAPE peaking around 1500 J/kg. In addition, late afternoon RAP forecast soundings in eastern Colorado have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. If a supercell can become locally dominant, then a tornado will also be possible. The severe threat will likely persist into early evening.
Further south into the southern High Plains, an axis of instability will be in place by afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast on the Caprock of west Texas, where 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 30 knots. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km, may be enough for an isolated large hail threat.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210550
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Synopsis
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.
Southern and Central Plains
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening. A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail and strong to severe wind further north.
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley, with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition, guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern US. A few stronger storms may be possible across the southern Plains, particularly near the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and southeastern US. A few stronger storms may be possible across the southern Plains, particularly near the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Synopsis
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D3/Saturday as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
TX/OK Panhandles
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock will produce scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate instability by the afternoon. Shear profiles will be fairly weak, with deep layer shear around 25 kts. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Overall, weak deep layer shear for organization may limit the severe threat.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.
..Thornton.. 05/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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