Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291935
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
DISCUSSION
No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.
..Broyles.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
Synopsis and Discussion
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291644
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Discussion
In the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages, dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS through the period.
..Dean.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291845
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
Southern CA
An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning. A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast. With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time.
..Dean.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290911 SPC AC 290911
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290911 SPC AC 290911
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290911 SPC AC 290911
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290911 SPC AC 290911
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, January 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, January 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, January 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, January 5 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290911 SPC AC 290911
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today.
Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
..Grams.. 12/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, January 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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