Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Summary
An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231945
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA
### SUMMARY
An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal California.
20Z Update
Relatively minor adjustments to the general thunder forecast were made based on the latest observations and model guidance. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025/
California
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward and approach the CA Coast late tonight/early Wednesday morning. A corresponding strengthening and increase in the flow through much of the troposphere is anticipated late in the period, with a surface low also forecast to deepen along/near the coast of northern CA. A cold front attendant to this surface low will sweep quickly eastward, and should be approaching/onshore across parts of coastal northern/central CA by 12Z early Wednesday morning. Current expectations are for the thermodynamic profile to remain mostly saturated, with poor lapse rates generally limiting instability. Even so, it appears that a gradual increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front and slightly cooling mid-level temperatures with the approach of the shortwave trough may support weak but sufficient MUCAPE for an organized band of low-topped thunderstorms late tonight.
Most guidance suggests this convection will not impact parts of coastal CA until after 24/06Z, and there is still significant uncertainty whether enough boundary-layer instability will be present to support surface-based convection. There is also a signal for pre-frontal convection in the low-level warm advection regime across parts of central into coastal southern CA. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow forecast, and related strong low-level/deep-layer shear, it appears that convectively enhanced winds may be capable of reaching severe levels and producing damage on an isolated basis even if instability remains minimal. A brief tornado may also occur if convection can become truly surface based, as effective SRH will be enhanced by a 50-70 kt southerly low-level jet. Based on latest guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded southward along the coast to include more of central/southern CA. This isolated severe threat is expected to continue beyond 12Z Wednesday into the Day 2 period.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.
California Coast
West of an imposing upper ridge building over the central US, deep troughing will intensify Wednesday and Wednesday night over the eastern Pacific. Several embedded disturbances will track onshore over parts of the West Coast. Strong ascent and strengthening onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization, first near the southern CA coast/LA Basin and eventually farther north and inland.
A band of storms will likely be ongoing over southern CA and adjacent waters early Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft (1km AGL wind 50+ kt) may mix to the surface supporting strong gusts and the potential for a brief tornado. A second more potent shortwave and surface low (sub 985 mb) will intensify and move near the central/northern CA Coast into early Thursday. A broken, low-topped band of storms along the advancing cold front may eventually move onshore overnight with a risk for occasional strong gusts.
San Joaquin Valley
Across central CA, cold mid-level temperatures (-24 to -27 C), strong height falls and the left exit of a 100+ kt mid-level jet will overspread 50s F surface dewpoints across the northern and central San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model soundings show modest MUCAPE (max around 500 J/kg) amid veering wind profiles and enlarged hodographs. Despite the limited buoyancy, a few semi-organized supercells are possible. Damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado are possible with the strongest storms before convection gradually moves eastward into the higher terrain and weakens.
..Lyons.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and southern California Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231922
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and southern California Coast.
California
Large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across the CA coast and move onshore Thursday and Thursday night. Within the broader trough, several embedded impulses will move onshore within strong southwesterly mid-level flow. One of these stronger impulses will start the day moving onshore over northern CA before quickly lifting north into southern OR. A strong surface low and cold front associated with this impulse will move quickly toward the coast prior to 12z Thursday. A band of low-topped storms along the front may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and persist for a few hours Thursday morning. Confidence in sufficient buoyancy for a sustained severe threat farther inland is low. Still, strong low to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado early along the coast.
The severe threat will likely shift southeastward toward southern CA coast through the day as a second mid-level impulse and the main core of the upper trough approach. Strong onshore flow and persistent low-level moisture transport will allow for weak destabilization near the coast during the afternoon and continuing into the evening. 90+ kt of mid-level flow and locally enlarged hodographs could allow for occasional stronger storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado despite the weak buoyancy.
..Lyons.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.
..Broyles.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.
..Broyles.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.
..Broyles.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.
..Broyles.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.
On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.
..Broyles.. 12/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, December 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, December 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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