Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131300

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI

Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska this morning into far southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21z/4pm CDT.

Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulation potential.

Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan

There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather potential may unfold today, potentially born out of subtle mid-level wave and early morning convection across northeast Missouri vicinity and/or development later today. The initially elevated storms would be on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could manifest if some of the more-aggressive early morning short-term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS).

Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas

A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg.

The extent/likelihood of sustained deep convection later today is a key question. The primary southern-stream trough will be well upstream over the southwest Desert, with neutral height tendencies across the southern Plains, although early morning water vapor imagery and derived wind data suggest that a subtle disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the dryline/warm sector later today.

Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline confluence/weak convergence may be sufficient for deep convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT, at least an isolated basis. Forecast mass fields would imply that this is most probable across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande vicinity.

If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of 40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards including very large hail. An increased confidence in deep convective initiation late this afternoon/early evening could warrant focus Slight Risk delineations in subsequent Day 1 updates.

Northern High Plains

Generally isolated severe storms capable of hail/wind will be possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface front where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130604

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast.

Synopsis

A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity

A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind gusts.

Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very large hail and damaging gusts.

Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO

Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls (by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.

Northeast

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130716

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Southern Plains to Great Lakes

An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight hours.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary hazards.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, April 13

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, April 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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