Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today.

20Z Update

No changes to the ongoing forecast appear to be needed at this time. Dewpoints have had a tendency to mix into the upper 50s F this afternoon in the lower Ohio Valley region. Convection has thus far struggled to mature/intensify as a result. Areas of southern Illinois into southwestern Indiana should be favored for more robust storm initiation over the next few hours as the shortwave trough moves in from the west. See the previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 02/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/

Midwest/Ohio Valley

Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north. Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized storm mode and supercells.

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms, with a few stronger storms capable of hail, are possible Friday night and early Saturday over parts of the Southeast.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191727

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms, with a few stronger storms capable of hail, are possible Friday night and early Saturday over parts of the Southeast.

Synopsis

Low amplitude but progressive mid-level flow will continue across the southern CONUS Day2/Friday. A shortwave trough and 100+ kt mid-level jet over the southern Great lakes will move quickly eastward and deamplify as subtropical ridging build to the south. A second shortwave, initially over the Desert Southwest will move quickly northeastward reaching the lower MS Valley by early Saturday. A deep surface low over the Great Lakes will gradually fill as its associated cold front surges eastward toward the Atlantic coast. Trailing portions of the front will slow and eventual stall, east to west over portions of the lower MS valley and northern Gulf Coast States.

Thunderstorms are expected to persist from Day1/Thursday east of the surface low early Friday across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, scant low-level moisture and weak buoyancy will preclude severe potential. Scattered storms are expected overnight across portions of the northern Gulf Coast States.

Northern Gulf Coast States.

Mid-level flow is expected to remain quite strong over much of the Southeast Friday as weak subtropical ridging builds in behind the departing eastern shortwave. With weak to neutral mid-level heights, large-scale ascent will be muted for much of the day. Continued southerly flow off the Gulf will support moistening south of the stalled front with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s F. Low/mid-level warm advection is expected to increase later Friday evening into early Saturday. While the primary ascent from the Southwest US shortwave should remain along the cool side, slight enhancement of the low-level jet is expected to be sufficient for elevated destabilization over parts of northern LA, MS, AL into northern GA and far southern TN. While not overly large, MUCAPE ~ 500 J/kg amid strong deep-layer shear (50+ kt) may allow for a few instances of hail with the stronger elevated storms overnight and early Saturday.

Upper OH Valley

East of the occluding surface low, modest low-level moistening is expected early Friday morning. A narrow plume of relatively higher dewpoints (40s and 50s F) ahead of the surging front could support shallow convection across eastern OH, southwest NY and western PA. Current forecast guidance shows little if any buoyancy. However, given the strong ascent, shallow convective elements are possible along the front. With 100+ kt of mid-level flow, sporadic damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out should any stronger convective showers develop. Cooler and more stable air farther east into the Mid Atlantic should limit any further wind gust potential later Friday.

..Lyons.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

Gulf Coast and Carolinas

A stalled frontal zone across parts of the Southeast will begin to move southeastward as an initial shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley and Southeast amplifies. Aided by additional troughing upstream over the central and northern Plains, flow aloft will intensify and turn northwesterly helping to deepen a surface cyclone along the frontal zone over GA and SC. The increased mid-level ascent and strengthening frontal forcing will move eastward into parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Carolinas Saturday afternoon. With dewpoints in the mid 60s F, some destabilization is expected with daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rate suggest buoyancy will be relatively modest, but sufficient for scattered storm development across central AL/GA and the southern Carolinas.

Ongoing elevated storms early Saturday morning should persist and move southeastward with additional development expected ahead of the front through the afternoon. Strong mostly unidirectional westerly flow will likely support some organization into bands or clusters. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though hail and a brief tornado are possible given the moist surface conditions and supercell shear profiles. Convection should gradually weaken as the front approaches the coast later Saturday evening and large-scale ascent lifts away to the northeast.

..Lyons.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, February 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Thursday, February 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 19

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, February 20

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Saturday, February 21

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, February 22

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, February 23

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, February 24

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, February 25

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, February 26

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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