Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Very large hail and severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms over the Ozarks into the Mid-South.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 162000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT…AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Very large hail and severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms over the Ozarks into the Mid-South.
20Z Update
The SLGT in the Ozarks/Mid-South was expanded northward into central MO, where an isolated supercell with a risk of very large hail and damaging gusts has emerged along the northern periphery of a remnant cold pool. Farther south within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127, several discrete/splitting supercells continue to pose a risk of very large hail (recent report of 2.75 inches) and locally damaging wind gusts. With time, this activity may congeal into a loosely organized cluster, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts. The MRGL risk was also expanded slightly westward into southwest OK, where boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening. Any isolated storms that can form here will pose a risk of large to very large hail and severe downbursts. Finally, the MRGL was expanded slightly westward in southwest TX toward Fort Stockton. While convective initiation is still in question here, deepening boundary-layer cumulus along the higher terrain could result in an isolated storm or two, with a risk of very large hail.
..Weinman.. 04/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/
Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South
Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well.
NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians
Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.
Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX
A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161741
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level temperatures will already be relatively cool.
During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI, with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.
The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms, including all modes of severe.
From IA into WI and northwest IL
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km, along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such, conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to indicate stronger tornado potential.
Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.
OK/KS/MO
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much of MO and into northern OK through the evening.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE.
Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over northern areas, with some supercell potential.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, April 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, April 17
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game