Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight. The most intense cells are expected across parts western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are all possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230101
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest and Great Basin tonight. The most intense cells are expected across parts western New Mexico through the remainder of this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are all possible.
Southwest and Great Basin
Evening water-vapor imagery showed the upper low over central CA has transitioned into a broad, negatively titled open wave. Mid-level southerly flow remains quite strong on the eastern periphery of the trough over eastern AZ, NM, and farther north into the Great Basin. The main associated vort max should continue northeastward from NV into UT and WY/ID tonight. Farther south, mid-level subsidence and dry air behind a surface trough were observed moving across southern CA/NV into western and central AZ. This should serve as the effective western terminus to deep convection.
To the east of the wind shift, ongoing convection has remained relatively strong and well organized owing to moderate buoyancy and strong/deep, but modestly veering wind profiles. A mix of supercells and linear clusters should continue into this evening as main band of convection gradually shifts into western NM and southern CO. Buoyancy is forecast to gradually decrease through this evening, but with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, convection should remain fairly robust well into the evening hours. Favorable deep-layer shear for supercells (EBWD 50-60 kt) will continue to support a risk for hail along with severe gusts. A tornado or two also remains possible, particularly from northwestern NM, northward toward southern CO where low-level flow is backed and terrain influence is supporting larger low-level hodograph curvature.
To the north, numerous thunderstorms remain ongoing, but with somewhat weaker presentation. Buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg) remains fairly limited, but sufficient for intermittent stronger updrafts, especially as the cold core aloft moves overhead eastern NV and western UT into tonight. With deep-layer shear forecast to remain quite strong overnight, isolated strong to severe storms remain possible. Damaging gusts are the most likely hazard, though sporadic hail will also be possible, particularly with any rotating storms able to be maintained.
..Lyons.. 10/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Synopsis
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning.
This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest. These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection farther east across the Upper MS Valley.
New Mexico
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region. Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more clouds and less heating with northern extent.
Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk exists as well.
Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large hail (i.e. greater than 2”+) and tornadoes.
..Mosier.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Synopsis
Southern-stream cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the Lower CO Valley. Substantial upper ridging downstream across the MS Valley will limit the eastward progression of this cyclone, and the general expectation is for this cyclone to be centered over central AZ by early Sunday morning. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist between the western cyclone and eastern ridging, extending from northwest Mexico across NM and the central Plains. Lower surface pressure will also precede this cyclone, resulting in a tightened gradient and increased southeasterly low-level flow into the Southwest.
Central/southern NM into Far West TX
Increasing low-level moisture coupled with at least modest daytime heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon across central/southern NM into far west TX, downstream of the slowly approaching cyclone. Greatest low-level moisture (and resultant buoyancy) is expected from far west TX into southern NM, with more limited low-level moisture and buoyancy farther north. The moderately strong and deep southwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs, and an attendant potential for supercells with any persistent updrafts. Large hail should be the primary risk, with some threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes as well. A relatively higher severe risk could materialize from south-central NM into far west TX where higher dewpoints and stronger southeasterly surface winds are possible. Uncertainty regarding cloudiness and the quality of the low-level moisture precludes introduces any higher severe probabilities with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game