Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241949
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
20z Update
No changes were made to the prior thunder areas. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the FL and Olympic Peninsulas through this evening and late tonight respectively. Weak buoyancy will preclude a severe risk. See the previous discussion for more info.
..Lyons.. 03/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026/
Synopsis
Broad high pressure will dominate the weather over the central/eastern US today, with a cold front sagging southward across the FL peninsula. Strong daytime heating and convergence along the front and the east-coast sea-breeze will aid in the development of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Cool temperatures aloft could result in a strong storm or two capable of small hail or gusty winds. But the overall threat of severe storms appears low.
A strong upper trough and associated mid-level speed max will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight, with some risk of lightning flashes over the Olympic peninsula.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.
Synopsis and Discussion
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states on Wednesday, but will flatten across the Great Basin/Rockies as a strong upper wave moves from the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Plains by 12Z Thursday. East of there, an upper trough will continue to exist the Northeast/Maritimes region.
At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the East and extending into the Gulf of America, while low pressure develops over the northern Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough. By the end of the period into Thursday morning, a cold front should extend roughly from the Upper Great Lakes into the central Plains.
While gusty southerly winds will develop over the Plains, moisture quality will be limited by the dry upstream trajectories out of the high. Still, this may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms over small parts of the northern Plains and OH Valley overnight.
Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula during the day due to strong heating and relatively cool temperatures aloft due to the trough to the northeast. Cold temperatures aloft over the Pacific Northwest may also support low-topped convection near/north of the intense midlevel jet.
..Jewell.. 03/24/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Very large hail appears likely. A few tornadoes will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS…INDIANA…AND WESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Very large hail appears likely. A few tornadoes will be possible.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude but intense upper trough will move quickly from the far northern Plains across the Upper Great Lakes during the day, and across the Lower Great Lakes and northeastern states into Friday morning. Cooling aloft will occur late in the day and overnight across much of the Midwest and OH Valley, with gradually strengthening winds aloft south of the upper jet.
At the surface, low pressure will extend from eastern NE into eastern Ontario or southwest Quebec Thursday morning, with the main low jumping northeastward into southeast Quebec or the Maritimes. Extending southwest from the low will be a cold front, which will proceed into northern MO, IL, IN and OH by 00Z. A broad fetch of mid 50s F to lower 60s dewpoints will exist ahead of this front, resulting in a relatively narrow plume of buoyancy where it remains uncapped.
The combination of lift along the front, moderate to strong winds aloft, and sufficient instability should result in a corridor of severe storms from late afternoon through early evening affecting parts of IL, IN, and OH.
IL/IN/OH - Late Afternoon/Early Evening
Much of the day will be free of precipitation, allowing for full heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates aloft will develop, though a capping inversion will exist around 800 mb initially. Despite the cap, strong lift near the cold front will eventually support storms, likely supercells, after 21Z and perhaps closer to 00Z.
Shear profiles will feature long hodographs, with a degree of low-level veering with height resulting in moderate SRH values. As the cap breaks, robust cells are likely to produce large hail, with several reports over 2.00" diameter expected. Although the storms will develop along the linear forcing mechanism, the favorable deep-layer shear is expected to maintain cellular storm mode for much of the event. Low-level shear will also support a tornado risk, especially for cells that propagate rightward.
With the capping inversion present, storms should begin to diminish during the early evening as heating is lost, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of significant severe storms. Given the narrow corridor at this forecast range, and thermodynamic uncertainties, will defer to later outlooks for any potential categorical upgrade.
..Jewell.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
..Moore.. 03/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, March 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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