Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are expected today over much of Texas, from Illinois into Ohio, and over portions of central California. Severe weather is not currently forecast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210537

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are expected today over much of Texas, from Illinois into Ohio, and over portions of central California. Severe weather is not currently forecast.

Synopsis

An upper ridge will move into the Plains as an upper trough moves inland over the West, with a strong cyclonic speed max moving across CA and into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Farther south, a weakening disturbance will move out of TX and toward the lower MS Valley.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the eastern states and across the Gulf Coast. Southerly winds across the Plains and around this high may support mid to upper 50s F dewpoints as far north as IA and IL by 00Z, while higher dewpoints remain relegated to southern TX. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early on Tuesday where weak elevated instability will remain.

IL/IN/OH

A surface trough is forecast to develop from Lower MI into southern WI and northern IL by late afternoon, beneath the northwest flow regime and with cool midlevel temperatures. Southwest surface winds and daytime heating should lead to 40s and 50s F dewpoints, with a relatively dry boundary layer overall. Models suggest at least isolated late day and evening thunderstorms will develop ahead of this trough, though instability levels are uncertain. Despite marginal dewpoints/moisture, the cool temperatures aloft may support a few cells capable of small hail from IL into IN by late afternoon. Wind gust potential is more uncertain and dependent on storm coverage/outflow production, with the dry boundary layer conditionally helping strong gust potential into the evening and perhaps overnight.

Central CA

Cold temperatures aloft north of the midlevel jet will support weak instability over parts of the central Valleys. Given early precipitation and clouds, as well as marginal low-level shear, severe storms appear unlikely. However, a few strong storms may occur late in the afternoon if sufficient heating occurs behind the early day rain. Small hail appears most probable with the strongest cells.

..Jewell.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210553

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains.

Synopsis

A closed upper low across the western US will devolve into an open wave as it lifts northeast toward the northern Plains. At the same time, a surface low will gradually deepen as it moves across northern Montana east into North Dakota by Thursday morning.

Lee troughing will strengthen during the day with the approach of the western trough. The surface wind field within this lee trough will function to sharpen a dryline from the surface low south across much of the High Plains. To the east of the dryline, strengthening southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward into the strengthening cyclone. The quality of this moisture return remains a significant source of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances with northward extent.

Northern High Plains including areas of eastern Montana

By late afternoon increasing large-scale ascent, driven by modest height falls, will overspread northern portions of the dryline. Despite moisture concerns, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across portions of the dryline during the afternoon. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads may support strong wind gusts with the strongest storms.

The best synoptic scale forcing for ascent will move across portions of eastern Montana during the late afternoon and evening. Should boundary layer moisture be richer than currently anticipated (e.g., closer to 40F than 25F), a threat for marginally severe wind gusts may materialize. This area will continued to be assessed in subsequent outlooks for an upgrade to Level 1/Marginal.

Southern High Plains

Midlevel height falls will not be as great here as compared to areas farther north. However, richer boundary layer moisture and strong dryline circulations aided by temperatures approaching 90F to the west of the dryline should support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Around 40 knots of cloud-layer shear should support at least a marginal hail risk with any storm that develops.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210738

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

CORRECTED FOR TEXTUAL CLARITY

SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

A complex convective setup is expected on Thursday as a broad, long-wave trough remains anchored across the Western US. While the initial/primary shortwave will be lifting northward into Canada, a secondary, lower amplitude wave is progged to approach the Southern Plains overnight Thursday into Friday.

At the surface, a Pacific cold front and dryline will push eastward into the Central Plains. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas. This feature will serve as the southern extent of the more organized severe threat, with a conditional threat southward along the dryline.

Central Plains

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along an advancing cold front/dryline across portions eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, before expanding both north and south. MUCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots will support supercellular structures initially, but unidirectional profiles may favor splitting supercells, storm interference, and a tendency for upscale growth into one or more linear segments. While a few tornadoes may be possible early in the convective evolution, large hail and damaging winds should become the dominant threat with time.

Southern Plains

Convective initiation along the dryline south of the triple point remains uncertain due to stronger capping. However, any discrete cells that manage to initiate will do so in an environment characterized by MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg with 30-40 knots of vertical shear. This will be more than sufficient to support supercells capable of very large hail.

A secondary wave should approach the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Forecast soundings indicate a steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with this feature and a subsequent increase in CAPE values. Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorms may develop overnight. The severe potential of these storms is uncertain given the overnight timing of the wave and increasing convective inhibition. However, strong vertical shear would seem to support a hail and wind threat.

Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley

As the cold front pushes into the more modest moisture and buoyancy profiles across northern Minnesota, the severe threat should be lesser than areas to the south. Still, proximity to the upper wave should support at least some threat for wind with any thunderstorms that develop.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 21

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Wednesday, April 22

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 23

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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