Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081938
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
20z Update
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Recent updrafts developing across far south FL have been slow to intensify within the modestly buoyant but weakly forced environment. This trend is expected to continue through this evening as the front continues to push offshore.
..Moore.. 12/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
Synopsis and Discussion
A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward.
A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081703
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
Synopsis
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday, resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south of the FL Keys.
To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb) surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust potential currently appears unlikely.
..Dean.. 12/08/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Synopsis
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is forecast to remain negligible across these regions.
..Dean.. 12/08/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
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Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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