Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100043
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible.
01z Update
Notable short-wave trough is beginning to eject northeast across the central Plains early this evening. Water vapor supports this with the center of circulation near DDC. 500mb speed max affiliated with this feature will strengthen and translate across north TX-southern MO-central IN by the end of the period. This evolution will result in negligible height changes along/near the Gulf coast overnight.
As this feature advances east, LLJ is expected to increase across LA later this evening, strengthening into northern AL by 10/12z. Low-level warm advection has proven instrumental in convective development much of the day with scattered thunderstorms persisting across the lower MS Valley. However, some increase in convection appears to be occurring across east TX as the southern influence of the ejecting short wave glances this region. Earlier thoughts regarding severe potential remain. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits strong shear and ample buoyancy for supercells. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms will persist along a corridor from northern LA into central MS with the potential for some uptick in intensity overnight as the LLJ strengthens.
..Darrow.. 01/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast.
Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast
Along and south of an outflow-reinforced cold front extending across central AL into southern MS, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast at the start of the period. These storms will generally be focused along a 30-40-kt southwesterly low-level jet and ahead of a northeastward-moving frontal wave.
Despite modest buoyancy, ample boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) and around 50 kt of effective shear will continue to promote organized storm clusters, to include the potential for a couple supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern, though enlarged clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200-250 m2/s2 effective SRH) within the moist axis will yield some risk for a couple tornadoes as well. The tornado risk will be largely dependent on the degree of convective overturning in the warm sector. The window of greatest severe risk appears to be from 12Z-18Z – before low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front and departing frontal wave. A SLGT risk was added for this corridor of heightened severe potential.
Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward across GA into the Carolinas in tandem with the northeastward-advancing low-level jet and frontal wave, where they will eventually outpace the surface-based warm sector during the afternoon.
..Weinman.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.
Discussion
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Strong forcing for ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates preceding the trough could result in an isolated lightning flash with low-topped convection overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. However, low confidence in this scenario and expected limited coverage precludes a TSTM area at this time. Upstream, an expansive cool/dry air mass will limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.
..Weinman.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, January 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, January 10
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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