Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Sunday, June 28

Monday, June 29

Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC…THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND ARKLATEX

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South

A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential.

Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening.

Central/northern High Plains

Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time.

Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region

The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Synopsis

An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains

As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours.

Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest

Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist.

Southeast

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.

Synopsis

Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains.

Central High Plains to the Ozarks

An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow.

High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains

Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the unstable warm sector.

Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into the Plains.

Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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