Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100533
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong, cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the region.
At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic. Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
### Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley
Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe) are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK, with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau region.
A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML plume.
The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent (see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm initiation.
By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry, mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150 m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes <25-30 kt are expected to limit tornado/meso-vortex potential with the QLCS.
Farther to the east across AR and LA into MS, convective evolution and associated severe-weather potential are a bit more uncertain. Some model guidance suggests that morning storms across portions of AR could intensify by afternoon while spreading east/southeast into parts of northwest MS and northern LA. Additional strong to severe storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening along the front moving through the area. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe hazard, though isolated occurrences of severe hail will also be possible.
### Central NM into far West Texas
Height falls aloft coupled with enhanced orographic ascent with the cold-frontal surge are expected to contribute to isolated to widely scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Steep, low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg amidst 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may favor a few strong to severe storms capable of hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.
### FL Peninsula
Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear possible along the front stalled across the northern Peninsula, and south along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. The presence of a moist environment with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
..Mead/Weinman.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100542
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Southeast
A mid-level trough will move eastward into the Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected over most of this moist airmass. Low-level convergence will become maximized near the front, and along coastal convergence boundaries. Thunderstorms that form during the afternoon will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail will also be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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