Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes and western Montana/northern Idaho. Sporadic strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180100

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IDAHO AND MONTANA…HE UPPER MIDWEST…AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes and western Montana/northern Idaho. Sporadic strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast.

Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

Early evening water vapor imagery showed an upper trough and belt of enhanced mid-level flow moving from southern Canada into the northern Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, a prominent warm front is in place along the southern edge of Lake Superior, into the UP of MI. Along the front, an associated surface cyclone was observed over Lake Superior with a cold front trailing southwestward into eastern MN and northwest WI.

Several strong to severe storms have developed and intensified across far eastern MN, northern WI and the shelf waters of Lake Superior this evening ahead of the cold front. High-res model guidance and convective trends suggest these storms should generally spread southeastward across northern WI this evening. Here in the warm sector, mid to upper 80s F surface temperatures and seasonably high dewpoints in the 60s and 70-s F are supporting a moderate to strongly unstable air mass, more than sufficient for maintenance of the ongoing severe storms. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear are also supporting organized clusters and some supercell structures. This suggests hail and damaging winds are possible into early tonight.

Across the UP, convection has been slower to evolve owing to lingering inhibition and weaker buoyancy. However, model guidance and recent radar trends show a gradual increase in storm coverage this evening. If some clustering can occur, a brief tornado risk may also develop given enhanced low-level shear along the warm front and near the lakes. An isolated risk for damaging winds could also continue overnight across the UP and far northern Lower MI with any longer-lived clusters along the front.

ID and MT

On the northern fringes of an expansive upper ridge, an upper low over the Pacific Northwest was supporting a broad fetch of seasonably high monsoon moisture and moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of ID and MT this evening and should continue into the early overnight period. While displaced from stronger westerly flow aloft, effective shear near 25-30 kt could support a few organized storms with a risk for hail and damaging winds over parts of ID and MT. Especially if any clustering can occur.

OH valley to the Southern Appalachians and Southeast

Numerous storms ongoing this evening should slowly diminish in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours as the boundary-layer stabilizes. The highest concentration of stronger storms should remain across parts of the Southeast in FL and GA where a larger reservoir of moderate to large buoyancy remains. An isolated damaging gust will remain possible with the more persistent thunderstorm clusters this evening. However, the weakening buoyancy and increasing stabilization should gradually limit the damaging wind risk into tonight.

..Lyons.. 07/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of strong to severe storms.

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in advance of the surface low and cold front.

As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas.

Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon. Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence of favorable effective SRH.

Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region, eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection.

An initially separate regime of storm development and severe potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging outflow winds.

Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening as it spreads southeastward.

Parts of ID/MT

A mid/upper-level low initially near Vancouver Island is forecast to move east-northeastward as a shortwave trough across southern BC/AB on Saturday. This shortwave will only have a glancing influence on parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, but modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterlies will be maintained across the region through the day/evening. Widely scattered storm development is again expected during the afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 30+ kt supporting a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

..Dean.. 07/17/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

Southern Appalachians into the Coastal Carolinas/southern VA

A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the eastern CONUS on Sunday. A weakening cold front may become nearly stationary by afternoon somewhere across southern VA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon along/ahead of the remnant frontal zone, and also near the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak to modest, but large PW, steepening low-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong buoyancy will support vigorous updrafts and localized downbursts. In addition, low/midlevel flow may be sufficient for one or two outflow-driven clusters to evolve with time and move southeastward into the early evening, with wind-damage potential.

Parts of eastern MT into ND/MN

A vigorous shortwave trough may evolve into a mid/upper-level low as it moves eastward across the Canadian Prairies on Sunday. An attendant surface low is forecast to gradually intensify as it moves toward Lake Winnipeg. A surface trough/weak cold front will move into northeast MT during the day and across parts of the Dakotas during the evening.

A conditionally favorable environment is expected to evolve across parts of far eastern MT into ND and northwest MN during the afternoon/evening, as a 40-50 kt midlevel jet and steep lapse rates overspread a warm and relatively moist boundary layer. However, with the strongest height falls and ascent expected to remain north of the international border, capping may inhibit diurnal storm development. Any storms that are able to develop and mature during the afternoon and early evening could evolve into organized cells or clusters with severe wind and hail potential.

Even if surface-based diurnal development is suppressed, there will be some potential for elevated convection to develop Sunday evening into the overnight. Steep lapse rates, moderate elevated buoyancy, and sufficient effective shear could support a hail threat with the strongest elevated storms, and severe-wind potential with any forward-propagating clusters that can develop Sunday night.

The Level-1/Marginal Risk has been expanded westward across ND and far eastern MT to account for the conditional threat in these areas, though confidence in the details of storm coverage and evolution remains low at this time.

..Dean.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, July 17

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, July 18

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 45%

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, July 21

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 22

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, July 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 24

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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