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Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are possible in the upper Ohio Valley.
← back to overviewSPC AC 071633
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are possible in the upper Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front, continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through mid-afternoon.
As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft (45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less unstable airmass.
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing air mass regionally.
Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio Grande.
..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.
← back to overviewSPC AC 071727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.
Carolinas into southeast Virginia
A midlevel trough will move eastward across the Northeast, while a related cold front moves slowly eastward across the Appalachians and eventually to the East Coast late in the period. Ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms are expected within a broad pre-frontal surface trough extending across the Carolinas into southeast VA during the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest, diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) will still contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. This, combined with around 30 kt of effective shear, may promote a couple loosely organized storms during the afternoon and early evening before quickly spreading offshore. The stronger storms will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Weinman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
← back to overviewSPC AC 071931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley
To the south of the primary belt of midlevel westerlies extending across the northern CONUS, a low-amplitude impulse and accompanying speed max will overspread the lower MS Valley during the afternoon. Here, steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints). This should yield weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by the afternoon. Given the low-amplitude nature of the midlevel wave and lack of any substantial low-level fronts, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. However, around 50 kt of deep-layer shear and sufficient surface-based buoyancy will favor organized storms to include the potential for supercells. The primary concern with any stronger storms that can develop will be large hail and damaging gusts, though some tornado risk is also possible. A corridor of greater severe potential is possible (depending on the degree of diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent), though confidence for an upgrade is too low at this time.
..Weinman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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