Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially in excess of two inches, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected over portions of the upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into night. Storm development is more uncertain with southward extent into the central Plains, where a conditional risk for mainly large hail and severe wind gusts exists late Friday afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts appear possible from the Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110526
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially in excess of two inches, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected over portions of the upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into night. Storm development is more uncertain with southward extent into the central Plains, where a conditional risk for mainly large hail and severe wind gusts exists late Friday afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts appear possible from the Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast late this evening will progress through the northern Rockies before reaching the ND/SK/MB border region by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a preceding, lower-latitude disturbance is forecast to move through SD into MN on Friday with strengthening mid/upper-level winds and modest height falls accompanying these perturbations over the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum/weak upper low will drift east from the Ozark Plateau into the mid/lower MS Valley.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over western SD at 12Z Friday is forecast to deepen slightly while developing into northeast SD by afternoon, before subsequently weakening while moving through central MN Friday night. The surface cyclone will coincide with a cold front that will advance through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. The trailing extension of the boundary will move more slowly south into the mid MO Valley and central High Plains. A dryline will precede the cold front with that feature extending from eastern SD through central NE into western KS by late afternoon. Elsewhere, a synoptic front modulated by convective outflow is expected to stretch from the Mid-South into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday afternoon.
### Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley
A low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to strengthen through the day from the mid MO Valley into the upper Midwest, enhancing the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass ahead of the surface low and attending frontal system. The moisture increase will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500+ J/kg by mid to late afternoon. Initial storm development is expected at that time across portions of northern MN along or ahead of the front, on the northern fringe of stronger capping.
Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with the primary hazard being large hail, some of which could exceed two inches. A few tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercells from late afternoon into evening when the strengthening LLJ enhances low-level shear with effective SRH increasing to 250-300 m2/s2. Storms are expected to gradually grow upscale along the cold front during the evening, at which point, the risk for damaging winds should increase.
Severe weather potential becomes more conditional with southward extent along the front and dryline in the mid MO Valley owing to stronger capping and weaker height falls/forcing for ascent. The 00Z models (convection-allowing and parameterized) indicate a relative minimum in thunderstorm chances over eastern SD and southwest MN with increasing probabilities from northeast NE into south-central NE and north-central KS. Given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, CAPE-shear parameter space will favor supercells capable of all hazards from eastern SD and southwest MN into northeast NE and northwest IA, with generally a wind and hail threat farther south along the NE-KS state line.
### Mid-South into the Carolinas and Virginia
Areas of thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark Plateau into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating on the southern fringe any lingering cloud cover will combine with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F to yield MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg by afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough approaching the mid/lower MS Valley, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the composite surface boundary. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization with mainly pulse storms expected. Nonetheless, the presence steep low-level lapse rates and abundant moisture will be supportive of wet microbursts capable of locally damaging wind gusts.
..Mead/Halbert.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms, and perhaps at least a small organizing cluster of storms, appear possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110500
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…SOUTHWESTERN IOWA…NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms, and perhaps at least a small organizing cluster of storms, appear possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Discussion
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, which will likely be maintained to the southeast of the Aleutians through this period, models indicate that another vigorous digging short wave trough will contribute to lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis offshore of the Pacific Northwest, before slowly pivoting inland Saturday through Saturday night. Farther east, it appears that attempts at building ridging across the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains will be suppressed by a digging short wave trough across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, within the southwestern periphery of larger-scale troughing east of the Canadian Prairies through the Canadian Maritimes.
By 12Z Saturday, perhaps the strongest short wave perturbation within the eastern Canadian troughing is forecast to be in the process of digging near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. As this feature turns eastward during the day, renewed cyclogenesis is forecast to the southeast of the primary surface cyclone, across northern Quebec. A cold front trailing to the southwest may advance across much of the upper Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and northern Great Plains by late Saturday night, preceded by a weaker cool surge, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow, across the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains.
It does appear that southern mid- to subtropical latitude ridging will remain prominent across much of the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast into early Sunday. Within and near the northern periphery of this feature, a weak perturbation initially migrating east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the Appalachians through Northeast.
Parts of central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley
Stronger warm sector low-level wind fields and forcing for ascent are generally forecast to remain in closer proximity to the primary and secondary surface cyclones, to the Canadian side of the international border through this period. However, in the wake of the shearing perturbation to the east of the Mississippi Valley, models continue to suggest that forcing for ascent aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm, beneath a difluent regime near/just south of the mid-level westerlies, may provide a focus for strong thunderstorm development Saturday through Saturday night.
By early Saturday, it appears that this may set up across the lower Missouri Valley vicinity, where a zone of stronger differential surface heating may evolve by late Saturday afternoon. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture near the interface of the stronger heating, beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may support a corridor of large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg. Coinciding with at least modest deep-layer shear, aided by pronounced veering of winds with height in lower to mid-levels, this regime may become conducive to the development of isolated to widely scattered supercells. It is possible that stronger activity persisting into Saturday evening could grow upscale into an organizing southeastward propagating cluster, near the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly nocturnal boundary-layer jet.
Due to substantive continuing spread within and among the various model output, including the latest available convection-allowing guidance, severe probabilities have been maintained at 5 percent. However, this could still change in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 09/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 14 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100744 SPC AC 100744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley
A progressive upper pattern is expected early in the week. An initial upper trough over the Great Lakes will spread east as upper ridging builds across the Plains. Meanwhile, another upper trough over the Northwest will shift east, moving across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes on Sunday will suppress low-level moisture southward across the central/southern Plains and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. A very moist airmass will be in place to the south of a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the surface boundary within low-level warm advection over the Middle to Lower MO Valley. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong instability could some strong gust potential, though convection may stay mainly to the cool side of the surface boundary. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent on Sunday.
Severe potential will likely increase on Monday as the upper ridge breaks down and stronger southwesterly flow overspread the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valleys. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Convection may be ongoing from the northern Plains into IA/IL Monday morning. This results in some uncertainty in position of best severe potential. Currently, the best overlap of rich boundary layer moisture, strong instability and favorable shear near the advancing cold front appears to be from eastern NE into IA and vicinity. A 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the nighttime hours across KS/NE into IA, oriented along the surface front, supporting an organized line of storms tracking southeast ahead of the front, and promoting damaging wind potential. Overall, the pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe storms on Monday, and a 15 percent delineation has been included.
Days 6-8/Tue-Thu
The early week surface front will stall from the southern Plains to Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through mid-week. A very moist airmass will persist south of the boundary, and persistent low-level warm advection could favor bouts of heavy rain. While some low-level severe potential could develop where pockets of strong destabilization occurs, weak vertical shear should largely limit more widespread potential, precluding probabilities.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, September 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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