Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251633

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS…WYOMING…AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks

Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing.

The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon.

This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before eventually weakening.

Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York

50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from mid-afternoon through early evening.

Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho

Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should support more robust convection.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/25/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the Northeast.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MISSOURI…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA…AND NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the Northeast.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough across the northern Pacific will deepen and begin to shift inland across the western US on Friday. Height rises will begin as ridging builds in across the central/northern Plains. Between these features, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the northern Rockies, with resulting lee cyclogenesis occurring across Montana/northern Wyoming. Further east, a shortwave trough will move across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley, with a surface low possibly deepening and moving northeast from Texas into the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley. Across the northeastern US, a belt of strengthening mid-level flow will shift through the broader mid-level trough as a surface low shifts into Quebec. A broad cold front will extend from the northeastern surface low back into the Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains.

High Plains

Increasing mid-level ascent and surface low development will support scattered thunderstorm development across the high terrain from eastern Montana south into Wyoming and Colorado. Height rises across the central/northern Plains may inhibit coverage a bit with eastward extent. Weak to moderate instability is progged by the afternoon along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear will be strongest across eastern Montana, weakening into Wyoming/Colorado. Given modest shear, potential for a mixed mode of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of damaging winds and large hail.

Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley

A broad area of showers/thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing near the start of the period from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The focus for afternoon redevelopment across portions of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois/Indiana will likely be where the residual outflow/differential heating boundary intersects the surface cold front by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that though cloud cover may linger, air mass recovery through filtered heating will lead to moderate instability by the afternoon. Recent trends in 06z ECMWF guidance has come into somewhat better agreement with the NAM, which was an outlier in the 00z guidance, suggesting that a surface low may deepen across southern Illinois/Indiana by the afternoon. This would result in much stronger low-level jet response across the region and potential for an increase in tornado potential. Some limiting factors may be the relatively weak mid-level flow and storm mode. Nonetheless, tornado probabilities were increased to 5% to account for some potential for a tornado or two. The main threats will likely be damaging wind and hail with supercells and multi-cell clusters developing near and ahead of the front by the afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the front south and westward into portions of the Southern Plains. Forcing for ascent will be weaker to the west, but sufficient deep layer shear for a few organized storms will be in place near the frontal zone amid moderate to strong instability. These storms will pose potential for damaging wind and hail also.

Northeast

A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will overspread the Northeast in the wake of morning convection. While it remains uncertain how much destabilization can occur behind the morning activity, it does appear that additional thunderstorms are likely to develop by the afternoon. Given strong deep layer shear profiles amid strengthening upper-level flow, these storms will pose some potential for damaging wind and few instances of large hail.

..Thornton.. 06/25/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Saturday. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250715

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Saturday. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.

Synopsis

On Saturday, the leading edge of a larger mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the northern Plains. A surface lee cyclone will develop in this vicinity. Farther east, a weak surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, weakening through the period.

Northern Plains

Low-level southerly flow will strengthen through the day Saturday within the warm sector of a lee cyclone across the Plains. This will lead to destabilization and moderate to strong instability by mid-afternoon Saturday. Storms will initially form across parts of central and eastern Montana, and will likely grow upscale into a MCS as it moves northeast through the evening.

Additionally, there is some supercell threat east of this activity during the afternoon/evening. This is a more conditional threat, but the environment would support tornadoes and very large hail if more isolated storms form. For now, the 15% probabilities cover the most likely region for a severe wind threat from a MCS, with some area farther east included for the conditional supercell threat.

Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia

Moderate to strong instability is forecast along and south of a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas on Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak shear across this zone, but at least moderately steep mid-level lase rates and moderate instability may support some damaging winds Saturday afternoon/evening. Slightly greater damaging wind potential may exist across Virginia into North Carolina along an eastward advancing cold front where moderate to strong instability is forecast beneath a mid-level shortwave trough and associated slightly stronger flow.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sun - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.

D5/Mon - Upper Midwest

The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.

Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 29

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sun - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.

D5/Mon - Upper Midwest

The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.

Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sun - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.

D5/Mon - Upper Midwest

The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.

Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sun - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.

D5/Mon - Upper Midwest

The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.

Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250809 SPC AC 250809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sun - Northern Plains

A strong mid-level jet streak is expected to round the base of the western CONUS trough on Sunday and emerge across the northern Plains. As this occurs, the lee cyclone across eastern Colorado will deepen further and move northward into the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Continued northward moisture transport will result in strong to very strong instability ahead of the surface low across the northern Plains. Forecast soundings show a very favorable environment and an uncapped airmass by evening. Forecast specifics remain nebulous as individual shortwave troughs will impact the timing and coverage of storms, but severe storms are possible at some point Sunday afternoon to Sunday night across eastern North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota.

D5/Mon - Upper Midwest

The primary shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet streak is forecast to shift northeastward across the northern Plains and toward the Upper Midwest on Monday. This will occur atop a very unstable airmass across a broad area of the Upper Midwest. Severe storms are possible, but the exact magnitude and extent of the threat will become more clear once individual shortwave troughs associated with this upper trough become better sampled.

Beyond Day 5, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain. Overall, a general pattern with a trough persisting over the Northwest or northern Rockies and a ridge over the Plains or Midwest seems most likely. However, the differences in amplitude and location of these features limit predictability. Within this broader pattern, severe weather will be most likely from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains and also potentially on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge across the Northeast. At this time, predictability is too low to add any probability areas.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 25

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Friday, June 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 29

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, June 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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