Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Summary
A severe threat will continue this evening from the southern Plains, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. The strongest of storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX
### SUMMARY
A severe threat will continue this evening from the southern Plains, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. The strongest of storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter.
Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the Ark-La-Tex this evening. Ahead of the trough, a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from near the Red River northeastward across far southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This cluster is located at the northern end of an axis of strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE near the instability axis in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In this area, RAP forecast soundings also show steep mid-level lapse rates, exceeding 7.5 C/km. In addition to this favorable thermodynamic environment, a low to mid-level speed max is evident over the Ark-La-Tex, where flow is westerly at 45 to 50 knots. This is creating moderate to strong deep-layer shear, which will continue to be favorable for severe storms this evening. Cells that can remain semi-descrete will could be supercellar and have potential for large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. The large hail threat should persist for a few more hours as the cluster interacts with the strong instability over the Ark-La-Tex. Supercells could also be associated with a wind-damage and tornado threat.
The cluster of storms is expected to gradually organize into a linear MCS, moving east-southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Severe wind gusts will become the primary threat as the line segment develops. A couple of QLCS tornadoes will be possible as well. The severe threat may persist into the early overnight period…See MCD 521 and 523.
..Broyles.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment across the south-central Plains by afternoon.
At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region.
Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex
Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in coverage into the evening.
Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening.
Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain, since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent. However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk.
Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening.
Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia
A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia, near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better resolved.
..Dean.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
Synopsis
A mid/upper-level shortwave and attendant jet maximum are forecast to emerge from the large-scale trough across the West, and begin to impinge upon a moist and potentially very unstable airmass across parts of the Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low is expected to consolidate and deepen across the south-central High Plains during the day, and then move toward the lower MO Valley by Monday morning. A surface front (whose initial position will be influenced by extensive Friday/Saturday convection) will move northward as a warm front across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. A Pacific Front/dryline will extend southward from the surface low through late afternoon, with the northern portion of this boundary expected to push eastward across parts of KS/OK Sunday night.
Great Plains
A volatile environment is still expected to develop across parts of KS/OK/TX Sunday afternoon and evening, with moderate to strong buoyancy and increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. However, the signal for diurnal warm-sector development remains rather muted in most guidance, with the strongest large-scale ascent and midlevel height falls expected to be displaced north of the stronger instability.
Storm coverage through early evening may be maximized across parts of the central High Plains, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave trough. While low-level moisture will remain relatively modest in this area, backed low-level flow, steep midlevel lapse rates, and moderate buoyancy could support initial supercell development, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Storms in this area may consolidate into an MCS, resulting in an organized severe threat spreading toward the lower/mid MO Valley later Sunday night.
Farther south, development along the dryline into parts of southern KS, OK, and TX remains more uncertain. If isolated supercells can develop and be sustained within this regime, they would be accompanied by a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong), very large hail, and localized severe gusts.
A separate area of nocturnal storm development will be possible within a warm-advection regime from eastern KS into the Ozark region. Buoyancy and shear may be sufficient to support some severe threat with the strongest storms within this regime.
Lower MS Valley
Nocturnal storms from D2/Saturday may persist into Sunday morning across the lower MS Valley, with additional diurnal development possible along the remnant surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy could support a localized severe threat across the region, within a modest northwesterly flow regime.
..Dean.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, April 25
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Monday, April 27
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, April 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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