Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020530

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

Discussion

Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW values are quite low.

Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for severe hail.

Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak and sub-severe.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and eastern Kansas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and eastern Kansas.

Southern and Central Plains

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020824

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

Southern Plains/Western Ozarks

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass, pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet strengthens.

Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, March 2

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, March 3

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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