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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, February 11
Thursday, February 12
Friday, February 13
Saturday, February 14
Sunday, February 15
Monday, February 16
Tuesday, February 17
Wednesday, February 18

Outlook for Wednesday, February 11

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110529

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

CA/Great Basin

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low. Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear, but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.

Southeast

Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge, but this activity is expected to remain isolated.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, February 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110543

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

Synopsis

Overall thunderstorms potential appears low on Thursday, largely driven by upper level ridging over the central CONUS and a dry/stable airmass east of the Rockies. An upper trough is forecast to develop east across portions of the Great Basin into southern CA. Cooling aloft may support a brief period of weak instability and a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out across the UT vicinity. However, chances for 10 percent or greater coverage appear low given midlevel drying after about 15z.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 13

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110738

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas.

West TX Vicinity

Friday will begin with upper level ridging centered over the central/southern High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into west TX will transport modest boundary layer moisture northwestward into the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin, and northward into the TX South Plains and Red River Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough oriented over southern CA/northwest Mexico will steadily shift east toward the southern Rockies by early Saturday. As this occurs, the upper ridge will shift east and midlevel moistening/cooling will occur after 00z. Furthermore, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across western TX.

Elevated instability is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening across the region in response to increasing moisture and cooling aloft. As large-scale ascent overspreads the southern Rockies/High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Convection will likely remain elevated given post-sunset timing and nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 3km are present in forecast soundings, along with steep midlevel lapse rates. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce marginally severe hail to near 1-inch diameter during the evening/overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, February 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, February 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, February 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, February 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, February 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, February 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, February 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, February 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Saturday, February 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Sunday, February 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Monday, February 16 potential too low
Day 7 Tuesday, February 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Wednesday, February 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 11
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, February 12
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, February 13
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, February 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, February 18
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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