Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact middle into lower Texas coastal areas today, potentially with some risk for severe weather.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151300
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact middle into lower Texas coastal areas today, potentially with some risk for severe weather.
Texas Gulf Coast
A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over northwest Texas/western Oklahoma this morning will continue to drift east-southeastward today, generally weakening as it approaches east Texas and the ArkLaTex late tonight. Ahead of this system, there will be relatively limited temporal opportunity for an appreciable inland/northward flux of moisture. It is possible that stronger storms will tend to remain focused offshore in the relatively richer maritime air mass, such as is occurring this morning off the lower/middle Texas coast, but some severe potential could nonetheless materialize in middle/lower coastal areas, primarily within 50-75 miles of the immediate coast this afternoon. In close proximity to the slow-moving/stalled front, the 12z observed sounding from KCRP/Corpus Christi sampled around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with upwards of 50 kt deep-layer shear. A somewhat more unstable environment will exist and persist longer south-southwestward across Deep South Texas, but the likelihood of inland deep convection is a bit more uncertain with south-southwestward extent, but a couple of severe storms could occur prior to the cold front shifting offshore by early evening.
..Guyer/Mead.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast over the US Monday.
Synopsis
Mid-level troughing will deepen as it moves onshore across CA Monday and Monday night. At the same time, substantial ridging will intensify over the central CONUS. At the surface, a weak surface low will develop over northwest NV with a trailing cold front moving onshore across southern CA. Limited surface moisture and generally poor thermodynamic profiles will be in place across the West, likely precluding anything more than a sporadic lightning flash. Another cold front will continue to more southward through the Gulf associated with a weakening shortwave trough over the Southeast. Strong surface high pressure over the OH Valley will bolster offshore flow over much of the central and eastern US. The cool, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential inland.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Synopsis
The upper trough over the West Coast is forecast to move eastward across the Southwest and into the Rockies Tuesday. An associated surface low will deepen over the central/northern High Plains supporting increasing southerly flow over the Southwest. While still quite limited, some increase in surface moisture is expected ahead of the trough and cold front. The increasing ascent and cooler mid-level temperatures should be sufficient for weak destabilization and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday across the Four Corners and Western Slope. Given the expected very weak buoyancy, severe storms are not anticipated.
Late Tuesday into early Wednesday a second upper low and associated cold front will approach the West Coast. Weak buoyancy is again forecast across northern CA and OR, which may be sufficient to support occasional lightning.
To the east, strong high pressure will remain entrenched across the Midwest with offshore flow and dry/stable conditions dominating much of the US. The exception will be across the southern and eastern peninsula of Florida. Here, onshore flow may allow for modest destabilization with a few thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze through the afternoon. Severe storms are unlikely.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.
Plains to the Midwest
Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.
..Lyons.. 11/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, November 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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