Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071235

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.

Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest.. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving northeastward across eastern MT and western ND. This activity, which appears to be associated with a weak lead shortwave trough, is forecast to continue northeastward/eastward throughout the day. Storm severity will be limited by a lack of buoyancy and stronger ascent. However, cloud cover associated with this activity will aid in sharpening a warm front that is expected to develop as the cold front, which moved across SD last night, returns northward amid low-level moisture advection ahead of a stronger shortwave trough.

Thunderstorms are first expected to develop back farther west across the northern High Plains, where moist easterly upslope flow combined with steep mid-level lapse will foster airmass destabilization. Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1000 to 2000 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kt) will support the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. One or more bowing segments could evolve from these supercells, with at least some potential for stronger, more organized line capable of gust over 70 mph to move across SD. However, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential is currently limited, owing to the likelihood of complex interactions between outflows and new storm development over the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity.

Thunderstorm development also appears probable farther east along the warm front during the evening as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large hail is possible with this activity initially, before upscale growth results in bowing clusters.

Additional storms are possible near the lee trough from southeast WY into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

Great Basin

A modest shortwave trough is forecast to move through northeast NV and northern UT this afternoon and evening. Modest mid-level moisture and lift associated with this wave will support isolated to widely scatted thunderstorms atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Modest updrafts and high cloud bases atop very steep low-level lapse rates will support locally severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.

Southern AZ

Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon. Modest easterly mid-level flow is expected over the region, with some potential for the thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible.

East Texas into the Sabine River Valley

Early-morning satellite imagery shows a broad upper low centered over the Mid-South, with a weak vorticity maximum pivoting through its southwest periphery over southern AR/northern LA. A few thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this vorticity maximum, with a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning through the afternoon as ascent from this vorticity maximum interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place. Vertical shear is weak but some loosely organized cold pools may evolve, supporting the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts.

Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support scattered thunderstorm development across the region, beginning over the Blue Ridge Mountains during the early afternoon and expanding southward along the weak lee troughing into the central Carolinas. Some sea breeze development is possible from the VA Tidewater along the coastal Carolinas as well. Vertical shear will remain weak, limiting the potential for storm organization. Even so, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Summary

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070530

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Discussion

While a blocking, but perhaps weakening, mid-level high lingers in the north central Canadian Arctic latitudes, it appears that one still fairly vigorous short wave trough and embedded low will begin to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots across the Canadian Rockies, then northward toward the Northwest Territories. In association with these developments, within a belt of modest westerlies closer to and south of the international border, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity, within weak west-northwesterly steering flow.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, modest mid-level ridging is forecast to generally prevail, but weak remnant troughing may slowly migrate from the Mid South toward the southern Appalachians, along its northern periphery.

Upper Midwest

Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with daytime heating.

Based on latest guidance, it is appearing less probable that a cluster of strong continuing thunderstorm development, with a possible MCV, will be substantively maintained into this period across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent Great Lakes region. But, this remains uncertain.

There appears a stronger signal for renewed thunderstorm development within the corridor of pre-frontal destabilization trailing to the southwest, across central into southern Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa by late Wednesday afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent with the digging mid-level troughing.

It is possible that a belt of convectively augmented westerly mid-level flow, including 30+ kt around 700 mb, contributes to sufficient shear for evolving supercell structures. These may pose a risk for severe hail, and perhaps some potential for a tornado or two, before damaging wind gusts become more prominent prior to storm weakening Wednesday evening.

Central Great Plains

By late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, it appears that boundary-layer destabilization associated with moistening easterly low-level flow may support intensification of initially scattered thunderstorm development off the Laramie Mountains through Colorado Front Range. Pronounced veering of wind fields with height may yield sufficient shear for supercells posing a risk for severe hail and wind.

There remains a fairly notable signal that forcing associated with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and perhaps a subtle digging mid-level perturbation, may contribute to an upscale growing and organizing cluster with potential to produce more widespread strong to severe wind gusts Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

Parts of the southern Mid Atlantic

Thermodynamic profiles may again become conducive to locally strong downbursts in convection likely to develop off the Blue Ridge Mountains, and within surface troughing to the north and northeast of a weak developing lee surface low. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak low-level warm advection and convergence, an upscale growing cluster, with potential to produce potentially damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of consolidating outflow, could overspread the North Carolina Piedmont by Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night. Much more isolated strong storms may impact parts of central North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070733

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night. Much more isolated strong storms may impact parts of central North Dakota late Thursday afternoon into evening.

Discussion

Modest mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build along the central Canadian/U.S. border Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast of the Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower latitudes, models suggest that a number of more subtle perturbations, a couple of which may generated or strengthened by convection, will progress through otherwise weak, zonal flow around the northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics. It appears that the most substantive thunderstorm development through this period will focus along this corridor, roughly east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into portions of the middle Mississippi Valley, and across portions of the Mid Atlantic.

Front Range through middle Mississippi Valley

The 07/00Z NAM is most prominent in generating a notable MCV by 12Z Thursday, associated with thunderstorm development across the central Great Plains Wednesday night. And it substantively intensifies this feature as it migrates across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys Thursday through Thursday night. This includes a strengthening jet to 50-70 kt around 700 mb, suggesting the existence of intensifying organized convective system with the potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. This is much stronger than what is generated by the ECMWF, with the GFS indicating a perturbation between these extremes.

Given the potential for a moist boundary layer with seasonably high moisture content, including lower/mid 70s F, it does appear that there may be sufficient CAPE to support the evolution of a significant severe convective system. However, the predictability of this type of feature in this type of regime at this extended range is relatively low, and reflected in the guidance. At this point severe probabilities will be introduced at 5 percent, but this will change if the consensus of guidance trends in the current direction of the NAM.

Otherwise, destabilization to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains will probably depend on the extent of stabilizing outflow left across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period. However, at least the eastern slopes into adjacent high plans may become a focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind by late afternoon. A remnant baroclinic zone associated with the convective outflow across Missouri into Kansas may provide another focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development late Thursday evening into Thursday night, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.

Mid Atlantic

Destabilization to the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains (centered across Virginia Thursday) may again become sufficient to support convection with potential to produce strong wind gusts and grow upscale, aided by forcing for ascent associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the Tennessee Valley.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, July 8

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, July 9

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, July 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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