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Storms with scattered severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Montana and South Dakota this afternoon and evening.
← back to overviewSPC AC 251248
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Storms with scattered severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Montana and South Dakota this afternoon and evening.
Montana to Dakotas
A prominent upper ridge will persist over much of the Southwest/central CONUS through tonight, with very hot temperatures expected this afternoon from Montana into the Dakotas. Isolated to scattered storms within the hot and well-mixed environment will result in a broad area of at least isolated severe-wind potential.
For parts of western/central Montana, convection that develops by early/mid afternoon near the high terrain is expected to spread eastward. This convection may be aided by a low-amplitude mid-level vort max moving around the periphery of the upper ridge. Increasing storm coverage and gradually strengthening mid/upper-level flow may allow for one or more outflow-driven clusters to develop and spread east-northeastward into early evening, with a threat of severe wind gusts. Localized gusts of 75+ mph cannot be ruled out, especially if deeper convection is able to spread into areas where very deep mixing and heating to near/above 100 F occurs prior to storm arrival.
Farther east, very strong heating is expected across parts of western/central South Dakota, with temperatures in some areas potentially rising to near/above 105 F. Low-level moisture will be relatively sparse, but MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg will be possible where 50s F dewpoints can be maintained within the well-mixed environment. Initial storm development near the Black Hills will quickly become outflow dominant as it spreads eastward, with an increasing threat of severe gusts as storms tend to increase and potentially modestly organize as outflows aggregate. Some guidance depicts development of a persistent cluster or loosely organized MCS that moves eastward across South Dakota along a weak surface boundary. Should this occur, a corridor of more organized severe-wind threat (with gusts potentially near/above 75 mph) will be possible this evening.
Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan, although confidence regarding storm coverage and timing remains very low within the weakly forced environment characterized by generally rising upper heights. As morning stratus thins/erodes, moderate to strong destabilization is possible along/south of a surface front that is forecast to extend from northeast North Dakota into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin by late afternoon.
Impressively long hodographs with effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than sufficient for storm organization, but most guidance remains rather muted regarding potential for diurnal storm development. If storms are able to develop during the afternoon or evening, then a threat for hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could evolve. Even if diurnal storm development is limited, at least isolated vigorous elevated storms may evolve within a warm-advection regime near/north of the front late tonight, which would pose a threat for hail and perhaps locally damaging wind.
Northeast Nevada/northern Utah/eastern Idaho
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge. These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and northwest Utah with time. Strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible with these storms as they move northeastward within a well-mixed environment.
South-central/southeast Arizona
High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before convection weakens tonight.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.
← back to overviewSPC AC 250524
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.
Synopsis
A dominant upper high will remain anchored over the central and southern Plains with an associated ridge extending north into central Canada. Within the periphery of the ridge, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest through south-central Canada into the Great Lakes and middle OH Valley. A series of weak mid-level disturbances will translate through the stream of higher-momentum flow, the most notable of which is a short-wave trough that will crest the ridge axis over SK/MB. Modest height falls are expected downstream from that feature from northern MN into the upper Great Lakes Sunday night/early Monday.
At the surface, a cool front attending the SK/MB system will advance through the northern High Plains into the ND-MN Red River Valley. A weak front will settle south through northern parts of MN and WI before stalling, while a separate frontal system extends from the Southeast into the Midwest with another boundary.
### Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys
Capping associated with the mid-level ridge and the subtle nature of mechanisms to sustain forcing for ascent lead to considerable uncertainty in the location, areal coverage, and intensity of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. That being said, a few early-day thunderstorms appear possible across the upper Midwest within a zone of warm advection and aided by the glancing influence of a weak disturbance moving through the upper Great Lakes. The storms would likely be elevated within a plume of moderate instability and ample vertical shear, suggesting some potential for large hail and damaging winds.
By afternoon, a reservoir of moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Midwest with the various models indicating the potential for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development at various locations from the mid MO Valley into lower MI. Confidence in any one scenario remains low, and as such, a modest expansion of the level 1/Marginal Risk was made across parts of the OH Valley to account for the broad range of potential outcomes. Given the degree of instability and seasonably strong vertical shear, higher severe weather probabilities and related conditional intensity groups may become necessary once forecast details become more clear.
As alluded to in the synopsis, stronger forcing for ascent tied to the approaching Canadian disturbance and surface front may support a more focused area of thunderstorm development over MN Sunday night. Subsequent upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears possible, which would increase the potential for a swath of severe wind gusts.
### Southeast
One or multiple weak disturbances aloft are expected to overspread the region, along with a slight increase in mid/upper-level winds. In response, a weak surface low may develop across upstate SC, along a subtle front/confluence zone in the area. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon along the front and developing sea-breeze boundaries within a very moist and moderately unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapses and high precipitable water content will enhance downdraft potential with an associated risk for locally damaging winds.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
← back to overviewSPC AC 250719
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
Synopsis
A potent short-wave trough and associated 50+ kt mid-level jet will move through the Great Lakes within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern High Plains. That upper-air system will be attended by a deepening surface low that is forecast to develop from the MN Arrowhead through the U.P. and northern Lower MI into southwest ON during the forecast period. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the OH Valley.
### Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a broad zone of low-level warm advection and increasing forcing/DCVA downstream from the mid-level trough. A fairly large area of moderate instability and seasonably strong vertical shear is forecast at the outset of the forecast period, and as such, the most intense storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. A subset of the early-day storms may evolve into one or multiple MCSs by afternoon ahead of the surface low and cold front, leading to a corridor of more focused damaging wind potential from Lower MI into IN and OH, and possibly parts of KY and WV Monday night.
Despite the presence of strong instability along the front from the mid MS Valley into mid/lower MO Valley, stronger capping and weaker forcing for ascent are expected to lower the chance of thunderstorm development.
### Central High Plains
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon into evening within a moderately unstable, post-frontal upslope flow regime. Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit storm organization; however, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and potentially large temperature-dewpoint spreads suggests a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tuesday
An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.
Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.
### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday
The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tuesday
An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.
Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.
### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday
The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tuesday
An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.
Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.
### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday
The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tuesday
An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.
Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.
### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday
The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 28 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tuesday
An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Wednesday
The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.
Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.
### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday
The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.
..Mead.. 07/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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