Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and sporadic large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240534
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours over much of eastern Texas, with more isolated activity into Mississippi. A few brief tornadoes may occur from eastern Texas into Louisiana, along with areas of damaging gusts and sporadic large hail.
Synopsis
A positive-tilt upper trough will move from the central and southern Plains today toward the MS Valley overnight, losing amplitude with time. Upper ridging will occur over the East during this time as an upper trough exits the Northeast.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Mid Atlantic during the day, with southerly winds from the western Gulf of America into TX. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will extend as far as North TX by 00Z as a cold front approaches the I-35 corridor. A warm front will extend roughly from the Red River into southern AR at that time, with a continued northward advection of moisture overnight across MS.
Eastern TX toward the ArkLaMiss
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from North TX into eastern OK and western AR through midday, with southerly 40 kt winds at 850 mb aiding moisture transport and lift north of the warm front. Given cool profiles aloft and ample deep-layer effective shear, some of this activity could produce hail at times.
To the south, a weak cold front will progress across TX, as boundary layer dewpoints increase. A capping inversion will exist near 700 mb initially, but by early afternoon, the deepening moist layer as well as cooling aloft will reduce inhibition near the front, and, by late afternoon, even ahead of the cold front within the moist axis.
Scattered storms are likely to form along the trailing outflow/cold front, and perhaps just east of the cold front primarily after 21Z. Sufficient cross-boundary winds aloft as well as veering winds with height will support scattered supercells. Some of these cells may produce a tornado prior to eventual merging of storms along the front. The most intense cells may also produce large hail, as mid/upper lapse rates will become steep.
At least an isolated severe threat may persist as far east as MS overnight, as the warm front continues to move north, with veering wind profiles with height and generally moist conditions supporting a conditional tornado risk. However, the upper trough will continue to weaken and lift north, reducing confidence in storm coverage.
..Jewell/Moore.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240654
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Synopsis
A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Deep South
A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day, despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast.
Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night. However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level flow.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the East Coast from the Northeast to Florida on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240753
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the East Coast from the Northeast to Florida on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Discussion
A strong upper-level low will move from the Great Lakes to southern Quebec on Wednesday. At the surface, a strong surface low will move slowly east from Lake Superior to western Quebec. A cold front will extend along the spine of the Appalachians Wednesday morning and move into the western Atlantic by Wednesday evening.
Ahead of the cold front, weak instability is forecast from southeast Georgia to eastern North Carolina. This may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms, but weak instability should limit the overall intensity of these storms. Additional lightning flashes are possible beneath the cold upper-level temperatures across the Northeast.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.
Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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