Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 022000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.
20Z Update
The forecast remains on track and only minor changes were made with this update. The primary addition was a CIG1 wind area over parts of western/central SD. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will evolve off the Black Hills and grow upscale as they intercept a diurnally destabilized air mass and gradually strengthening low-level jet – promoting some gusts upwards of 75 mph.
..Weinman.. 06/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026/
Northern Plains
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold front extending southward from this low across western ND and into northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon, additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.
Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures. Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.
Central/Southern High Plains
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized, outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest storms.
Southeast into Central TX
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021719
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level ridge across the western Great Lakes will deamplify through the day on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will progress across the Canadian Prairies with an additional mid-level trough across the Northwest. An expansive area of surface high pressure will lead to stable conditions across much of the eastern CONUS. A weak surface trough will extend from the primary low pressure center in southern Canada and into the northern/central Plains.
Northern Plains
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing on Wednesday morning across portions of western and central South Dakota amid weak isentropic ascent. An isolated hail threat may exist with these morning storms. By mid-afternoon, storms are expected to develop as height falls overspread a southeastward moving cold front. 40+ knots of effective shear will support supercell mode with a threat for large hail (some very large). As the front continues southeastward, expect upscale growth into a linear segment with an increasing severe wind threat. A tornado threat may also exist during the supercellular phase, particularly if a stronger 30+ knot low-level jet develops as forecast by some guidance. This tornado threat could also be aided by any potential outflow boundaries remaining from morning convection.
Farther south, isolated to scattered storms are possible along a diffuse dryline. Mid-level flow is very weak farther south which will limit storm organization. However, moderate instability and an uncapped airmass will support some marginal hail/wind threat.
West Texas into southern New Mexico… A cluster of storms associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be ongoing across portions of West Texas on Wednesday morning. Moderate destabilization south and southwest of this activity is expected during the day. This zone will likely be a focus for strong to isolated severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Modest deep-layer flow may result in a messy storm mode, but moderate instability and steep lapse rates will support the potential for some large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021917
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.
Synopsis
Mid-level zonal flow with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is forecast from the Northwest to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with a more nebulous surface pattern elsewhere.
Northern/Central Plains
Lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains through the day Thursday as a ~50 knot jet streak emerges across the eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. As this occurs, upslope flow will strengthen/moisten across southwest South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. This upslope region will likely be the zone for initial severe storm development Thursday afternoon. Additional storms may also develop eastward along the front and southward along the dryline. The most favorable zone for severe supercells is across western South Dakota where moderate to strong shear will overlap moderate to strong instability near the surface low/triple point. All severe weather hazards (including very large hail) will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with eventual upscale growth into a MCS into the overnight hours.
Isolated to scattered storms are expected along the diffuse dryline across the central/southern High Plains. However, mid-level flow is expected to be weak across this region and lapse rates are not expected to be that steep. Therefore, any severe weather potential from this activity should remain quite isolated.
..Bentley.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, June 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 9
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 9 | low / uncertain |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.
### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday
A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.
Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.
Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.
### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday
The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, June 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 9
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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