Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms with large hail and isolated severe gusts are expected today across parts of west Texas. A few storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200505
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms with large hail and isolated severe gusts are expected today across parts of west Texas. A few storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England.
Southern High Plains
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be positioned from west Texas eastward into the Texas Hill Country. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will result in an axis of moderate instability. The strongest instability is forecast to develop from the lower Rio Grande River Valley north-northwestward into far west Texas and eastern new Mexico. As instability increases during the day and low-level convergence becomes focused along the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across far west Texas. These storms will move eastward into west-central Texas by early to mid evening. Additional storms may develop further north-northwest into eastern New Mexico.
RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis in the late afternoon from Fort Stockton northward to Midland have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. 0-6 km is forecast to be around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rate from 7 to 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant storms will have potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. A more isolated severe threat may also develop further north-northwest across the southern High Plains along the instability axis.
Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic/Far Southern New England
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F will enable an axis of moderate instability to develop by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas ahead of the front. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. These storms will move eastward across the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along and near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear up to 25 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This should support a severe threat with multicell storms. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. The severe threat may persist into the early evening.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200552
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO…NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO…AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in Colorado.
Central and Southern High Plains
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe threat downstream.
Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and small hail will be possible.
Elsewhere
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall severe threat.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Synopsis
A mid-level wave will move across the central Plains on D3/Friday. A weak lee low will develop across northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado, with a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwestern Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of the dryline by Friday afternoon, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of southwestern Kansas, western Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas
While there remains some uncertainty in the exact eastward placement of the dryline Friday afternoon, guidance continues to suggest eroding MLCIN and potential for convective development by the afternoon as weak ascent spreads across KS into northern OK. Ahead of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by steep low to mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts would support potential for initial supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. Clustering and more multi-cell mixed mode thunderstorms may evolve into a damaging wind threat through time.
Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected south of a stationary boundary extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and south into northern Georgia. Though weak to moderate instability will be in place, weak flow aloft and weak deep layer shear will likely keep storms sub-severe.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200856 SPC AC 200856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low through the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains through the weekend before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. This pattern will remain in place through early to middle of next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low through D8/Wednesday.
..Thornton.. 05/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, May 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, May 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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