Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected this evening into tonight from parts of New Mexico northeastward into the southern High Plains. A more isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010607
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected this evening into tonight from parts of New Mexico northeastward into the southern High Plains. A more isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest this afternoon.
Desert Southwest/Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across California into the Desert Southwest today. Ahead of the system, a sufficiently moist airmass will be in place across parts of southern and central Arizona, where scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support an isolated severe threat with cells that initiate and develop within weak instability. Supercells with potential for isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as a larger-scale band of storms becomes more well-defined.
Ahead of this convective band, moisture advection will take place today in the southern High Plains of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, moderate instability will develop in the late afternoon and early evening. The large-scale line segment is expected to become increasingly organized as it approaches the instability axis. The potential for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes will likely become maximized as the line moves through the stronger instability this evening over eastern New Mexico and west Texas.
RAP forecast soundings this evening from Roswell, NM northward to Clovis, NM have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range with some veering winds with height and substantial low-level speed shear. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range in parts of eastern New Mexico in the early to mid evening. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that form within the large-scale band. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense parts of the line segment. Severe wind gusts above 70 knots may occur with the faster-moving bowing structures. The severe threat may continue into the overnight period as the line moves northeastward into northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010602
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA…NORTHERN TEXAS…AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.
Synopsis
A deep upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains, with a leading speed max moving swiftly across western TX and toward the MO Valley during the day. Meanwhile, a stronger speed max will move across NM and into KS, OK, and northwest TX by late in the day, and across the remainder of KS and OK overnight.
A surface low will deepen across central NE, with a cold front moving into western NE and KS. A dryline will extend roughly from central KS into western OK and west-central TX by 00Z, with mid 60s F dewpoints across the warm sector. A 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet will develop late in the day into the overnight period, also aiding northward advection of moisture. At least a narrow zone of supercell potential is evident near the dryline late in the day, with a few tornadoes and damaging wind possible. The severe risk should persist through the late evening with damaging winds and possible QLCS storm mode, along with an isolated tornado risk.
Parts of northern TX across OK and into eastern KS
Capping due to relatively cool boundary-layer temperatures will inhibit storms for much of the day, with a zone of steeper low-level lapse rates near the dryline. Initial cell development is expected there, from south-central KS into western OK and northwest TX after 21Z, with increasing coverage of storms through the evening as the system continues eastward. Effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will be common, though effectiveness away from the dryline will depend on how warm the boundary layer becomes. At the very least, initial cells would appear to have a tornado risk, with sufficient instability of 1000-1500 J/kg. A conditional risk of an EF2 tornado exists due to favorable shear, and depending on destabilization. Storms may become more linear with time as they move across OK, north TX and eastern KS, with decreasing instability after 06Z.
..Jewell.. 11/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 1
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, November 2
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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