Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030556

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico.

Synopsis

The upper low will move into the Canadian Prairie today. A modest mid-level jet will overspread North Dakota into northern South Dakota. A cold front will move south and east through the Dakotas. A surface high in the Great Lakes region will promote moisture advection into the High Plains.

Northern Plains

A modest low-level jet (45 kt at KLNX) is promoting a small cluster of convection along the Nebraska/South Dakota border early this morning. The duration of this activity is not certain, but it is possible that it could last until daybreak when the low-level jet is forecast to weaken. At a minimum, cloud cover from this activity may delay heating in some areas. Models still bring low 60s F dewpoints into South Dakota by the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be strongest in North Dakota where the upper low will be. Modest ascent will still occur into South Dakota along the surface trough/front. 40-50 kt of shear will promote organized supercells, at least initially. There does appear to be a small corridor where a discrete mode could be maintained longer where the shear vectors will be more orthogonal the surface trough. There, very-large hail would be more probable. Overall, a transition to a linear mode is expected to occur within a couple of hours of initiation as the front moves southeast. Severe winds would become more likely as this occurs. The tornado threat will be greatest with the initial discrete storms. The low-level jet does modestly increase during the evening when a linear mode should dominate. A QLCS circulation or two is possible, but the wind threat should be the main concern.

Central into southern Plains

Weak convectively generated MCVs are apparent in water vapor imagery in the Southwest. As these move slowly eastward into this afternoon, perhaps congealing, they will interact with a surface trough/stalled boundary in the High Plains. Deep-layer winds will otherwise be weak, but the MCV may locally enhance shear. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg despite fairly modest mid-level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur which would locally increase the threat for strong/severe winds.

Southwest Texas

Early morning convection appears possible within the region. The spatial extent/intensity of this activity will play a large role in whether stronger convection can develop later in the afternoon/early evening. Should cloud cover/outflow influence be minimal, strong heating southwest of the region along with moist influx from the southeast will promote thunderstorms within the Davis Mountains/Big Bend. Deep-layer flow will only be modest, but isolated large hail and severe gusts would be possible.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030530

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Synopsis

A low-amplitude, cyclonic flow regime will be maintained across the north-central U.S. with several embedded disturbances moving through that airflow pattern. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes with that boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley to eastern WY, where it will link with a lee cyclone. A dryline/lee trough will extend south from the low pressure through the central and southern High Plains.

### Northern and Central Plains

A short-wave trough embedded in the cyclonic flow initially over the northern Rockies Thursday morning will shift into the northern High Plains by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level winds and forcing for ascent downstream from that feature will progressively overspread a moist and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) upslope regime present across portions of southeast MT, northeast WY, and western SD, to the north of the surface boundary. Those processes will contribute to initial storm development in those areas by mid afternoon with the kinematic environment favoring supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

Additional storm development will be possible farther east along the front in central/eastern SD and northern NE amidst a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) with weakening vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent. As such, a mix of multi-cell and some supercell structures appear possible with an associated risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

Those two separate regimes may consolidate into one or more MCSs Thursday evening/night, with a continued risk for damaging winds and sporadic large hail.

Elsewhere, diurnally enhanced storms will be possible south along the lee trough into northeast CO, as well as ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum moving through portions of northeast KS, eastern NE, and IA. Steep lapse rates and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear may support isolated, high-based storms in the former area with some wind and hail threat. Poorer mid-level lapse rates and weaker vertical shear expected in the latter areas would limit severe-weather potential to mainly wet microburst activity. Model soundings do show some low-level hodograph curvature, so a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes

Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector Thursday; however the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will largely contribute to a narrow axis of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg by afternoon. The glancing influence of a mid-level low moving into the northwest Ontario coupled with convergence along the front are expected to foster widely scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon.

The presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for multi-cells and transient supercell structures capable of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Modest strengthening of the low-level jet is noted across northern WI into the western UP of MI late Thursday afternoon into evening, which could yield sufficient low-level shear for some tornado risk. No probabilities will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty in the degree of instability in those areas.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030848

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA…SOUTHERN MINNESOTA…AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE

SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains.

Synopsis

The primary upper-air feature of interest Friday is a short-wave trough, which is forecast to amplify while progressing from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. A cold front associated with at upper-air system is expected to stretch from the upper Midwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid afternoon. That boundary is expected to serve as the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development from afternoon into Friday night.

### Upper Midwest into the Central Plains

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the Midwest and possibly northern Plains, with that activity expected to decrease in areal coverage through the morning. However, residual cloudiness and convective outflow may slow the destabilization process in areas where the storms linger the longest. Outside of those areas, model guidance indicates the development of moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal warm sector by mid to late afternoon.

Height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the migratory short-wave trough coupled with low-level convergence along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries are expected to contribute to an areal increase in storms during the afternoon and evening hours. An associated risk for at least isolated severe weather appears possible in parts of the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated zone of severe storms may materialize in the vicinity of the synoptic front from parts of western WI and southern MN into central and eastern NE. There, a favorable overlap of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and the moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop, supporting organized storm modes capable of mainly large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is forecast across the mid MO Valley Friday evening, conditionally supporting some tornado risk.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 3

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, June 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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