Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, July 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040058
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern Plains this evening into the early overnight hours.
Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest
Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This favorable environment should support supercells with a large to isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible.
On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated.
Northeast
Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately across far eastern MA and vicinity.
..Gleason.. 07/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, July 4
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the western Dakotas and NE.
At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate overall instability.
Dakotas into MN
Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western IA.
NE into western KS
Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity. Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail possible.
Synopsis and Discussion
A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent with more substantial cooling aloft.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS. Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be ruled out.
To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of western SD and NE late.
For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here, with mixed storm modes.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030858 SPC AC 030858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period.
At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week.
..Bentley.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030858 SPC AC 030858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period.
At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week.
..Bentley.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030858 SPC AC 030858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period.
At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week.
..Bentley.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030858 SPC AC 030858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period.
At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week.
..Bentley.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, July 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, July 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, July 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, July 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, July 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030858 SPC AC 030858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north of the stronger instability early in the period.
At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of next week.
..Bentley.. 07/03/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, July 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, July 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, July 5
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, July 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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