Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161234
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.
Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.
Mid South
Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket (-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon. The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid evening.
Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX
Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly 100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early evening.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA…KANSAS…MISSOURI…IOWA…ILLINOIS…FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…AND WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near a dryline extending southwest from western OK into west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.
A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector. This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally, large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk, both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI. Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km. Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.
Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main risk.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160705
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley
A large-scale upper trough oriented over the Upper Midwest and Plains will shift east over the Great Lakes, Midwest and TN Valley on Saturday/Saturday night. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. This front should be located from Lower MI into southeast MO Saturday morning, moving across the Ohio Valley through early evening. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front. Daytime heating into the 70s and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization (generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While instability will be modest, strong low and midlevel flow will support organized cells and/or line segments capable of strong gusts. Any discrete cellular activity also may produce marginally severe hail. These severe risk should gradually wane during the evening with eastward extent.
TX to the Lower MS Valley
Thunderstorms are expected along a southeast-advancing cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer flow will be oriented parallel to the front, and convection may largely be anafrontal or quickly undercut by the front. While weak MUCAPE is noted in forecast soundings, severe potential is not expected at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160838 SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day 6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, April 16
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, April 17
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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