Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, June 2

Wednesday, June 3

Thursday, June 4

Friday, June 5

Saturday, June 6

Sunday, June 7

Monday, June 8

Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Synopsis

The primary upper low will make little eastward progress today. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across parts of the western Dakotas. Mid-level winds will drop off fairly rapidly from Colorado southward. Convective outflows will be present within the central and southern Plains. To the east, a strong, amplified trough will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast.

Eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas

Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across the region through the day. A surface low will develop near the WY/SD/ND border region by late afternoon. Storms will develop either within parts of the higher terrain in Wyoming or along a dryline/weak surface trough feature. Additional storms are possible along a southwest-northeast cold front in western/central North Dakota. Upper 50s to perhaps low 60s F dewpoints are expected. Effective shear values of 45-50 kts will promote supercell structures, particularly in western South Dakota/southwest North Dakota near the surface low. Large to very-large hail and severe winds will be possible. A couple of tornadoes are also possible with discrete storms near the surface low. Should storms maintain a discrete mode into early evening, a modest increase in the low-level jet will increase the tornado potential.

Central/southern High Plains

Moisture return will occur in the wake of overnight convection. Low to mid 50s F dewpoints into the Foothills/southern Rockies appears plausible. Along the Front Range, mid-level winds will be weaker than yesterday. The degree of surface heating will play a role in storm coverage during the afternoon. At present, isolated storms capable of marginal hail and isolated severe gusts are the most likely scenario. Farther south, temperatures will be warmer and dewpoints may be slightly greater as well. Despite the weaker shear, scattered storms will develop in strong buoyancy and pose a risk of severe wind gusts.

Southeast Alabama/southern Georgia/Florida

Rich surface moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will reside south of a weak surface boundary. Mid-level flow will be at least moderately strong with the approach of the trough. Given the influence of outflow from the previous days convection as well as a northerly component to the winds through the day, the northern extent of the severe risk is uncertain. It is more probable that stronger convection forms along the Gulf breeze front within the Florida Panhandle and the sea breeze on the eastern coast. Coverage in Alabama and Georgia may be rather isolated. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard as well as small hail. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit greater hail potential even with supercellular modes possible in eastern Florida.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020547

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere, a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from the southern into central High Plains.

At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.

### Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon/night

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the early-day convection could linger through the morning into early afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.

Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which will support organized storm modes, including supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is forecast.

Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.

### Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening

The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains, and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas, with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds. Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA…AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level low over southern Manitoba Thursday morning is forecast to move into Ontario ahead of a weakening short-wave trough translating from the northern Rockies into northern Plains. A separate disturbance is expected to progress through the central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low will track from southern Manitoba into northwest Ontario while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary will link with a surface low over eastern WY.

Northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes

The synoptic front and low-level upslope flow north of the boundary in the northern High Plains will be the main foci for strong to severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into night. The most favorable overlap of steep lapse rates, moderate instability, and modestly strong vertical shear is expected to reside in those same areas from the northern High Plains east into the mid MO Valley.

Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weakening short-wave trough, diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is anticipated Thursday afternoon from portions of eastern MT into western SD, near and to the north of the stalled surface front. The environment appears supportive of supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail initially, especially across western SD. Some model guidance suggests that the initial discrete storms may grow upscale into a forward-propagating MCS that would advance east across SD Thursday night with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.

A potentially separate strong to severe storm regime may materialize Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and eastern NE into western IA in association with the lower-latitude disturbance moving through those areas. Vertical shear will be weaker than locations farther to the northwest; however, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass may support isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Isolated to widely scattered, strong to severe storms may also develop along the cold front across parts of the upper Great Lakes into upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening with an associated damaging wind and/or large hail risk.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 4	low / uncertain
Day 5	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 4	low / uncertain
Day 5	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 4	low / uncertain
Day 5	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 4	low / uncertain
Day 5	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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