Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221249
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High Plains.
Southern High Plains
Modest cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the Interior West through the base of the trough over the south-central U.S. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance migrating east across the Permian Basin this morning. A seasonably moist airmass maintained via southeasterly low-level flow will heat and become moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon.
Model forecast soundings show relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (near -14 deg C) with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates later this afternoon. Strong heating will locally erode appreciable remaining convective inhibition and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by late afternoon. Although westerly flow will likely remain modest (20 kt from 600 to 200 mb), strongly veering flow will result in 25-30 kt effective shear, supporting supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense updrafts. Increasing storm coverage during the evening will tend to promote some upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts becoming more prevalent. The risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) may focus during the 00-03 UTC period before a gradual waning in coverage/intensity by late evening.
Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of 925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves northeastward across western/northern AL through midday. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity wanes by the early evening.
Mid Missouri Valley
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early evening.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.
Synopsis
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.
TX/OK Panhandles
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.
Middle Texas Coast
Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.
Central/Southern Georgia
A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the Nebraska and Iowa.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of the Nebraska and Iowa.
Synopsis
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on D3/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible in these regions.
Eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, western Iowa
As the shortwave moves through the central Plains, guidance has trended northward with moisture return into the central Plains by D3/Sunday. Some deterministic guidance (NAM, ECMWF, GFS) suggest that a plume of mid 50 to 60s dew points may advect up into eastern Nebraska near a northward moving pseudo warm frontal boundary. A narrow corridor of moderate instability may develop and overlap around 40-45 kts of deep layer shear across this region by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings depict supercells profiles, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While there remains some low confidence in moisture availability, trends in 00z guidance suggest adding in low end severe probabilities.
Southeast
A few stronger thunderstorms may develop across portions of the southeastern US Sunday afternoon. Though shear profiles are generally weak, moderate instability will be in place with strong daytime heating and potential for water laden down bursts and a few instances of strong to locally severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.
A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.
By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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