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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within this corridor.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within this corridor.

Synopsis

An upper trough will move across the Great Basin and toward the Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft spreading over the Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern CO during the day, and will move into KS through Friday morning. A stationary front extending from northwest TX into southern MO will become a warm front as southerly surface winds increase throughout the period. Low 60s F dewpoints will move across OK and into the eastern TX Panhandle during the day, and along I-35 into KS overnight. Moderate instability is expected to develop from western TX into OK and southern KS, with increasing shear profiles late in the day. This will likely lead to a compact area of severe storms, particularly from the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western OK late in the day and into the evening.

TX Panhandle/northwest TX into western OK and southern KS

Moisture and instability will gradually build during the day as the warm front pushes through during the afternoon. There is some concern about the degree of capping, especially across eastern areas. However, it appears heating will be sufficient to instigate a few supercells, developing by late afternoon across the eastern TX Panhandle and perhaps portions of the South Plains or northwest TX. Steep lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height will clearly support supercell mode initially, with very large hail and tornado potential. These cells, or a developing cluster, will likely continue into the evening across much of western OK and perhaps toward southern KS by late evening. By that time, shear will be quite strong, and may support significant bowing structures.

Northern KS…NE…IA

After dry conditions for much of the day, thunderstorms will develop overnight as low-level theta-e rapidly spreads north due to a 60 kt low-level jet. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE developing after 03Z, north of a warm front. Deep-layer shear within the cloud-bearing layer also appears favorable for sustained cells, and a few storms could produce hail.

Western FL Peninsula

Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime, strong heating will occur, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high, midlevel temperatures will be relatively cool. Scattered storms appear probable along the western Peninsula during the afternoon where convergence will be maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, though severe storms are not currently forecast.

..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/05/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night from portions of the central/southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The most probable corridor for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is across eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma to western Missouri.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS/OK TO WESTERN MO

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night from portions of the central/southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The most probable corridor for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is across eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma to western Missouri.

Synopsis

Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct impulses by Friday night. Leading shortwave trough should eject from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from western KS vicinity across IA to the central Great Lakes. The dryline should mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest

Most appreciable change this outlook has been to flatten the previously tight gradient to severe probabilities over the Great Plains. The splitting of the broad western trough and positive-tilt of the leading shortwave impulse suggests that surface features on Friday afternoon should lag westward compared to the typically overmixed GFS. Initial storm development should occur across central KS near the triple-point mesolow by mid to late afternoon. Expanding convective coverage is anticipated to the northeast into IA/MO and south into at least northern OK. Available D3 CAM guidance is much less robust than parameterized models with the degree of convective development through early evening towards the Red River and southward into central TX. With near-neutral mid-level height falls, it is plausible that convection south of the latitudinally compact mid-level jetlet will remain isolated. This lowers confidence in the southern extent of highlighted level 3-ENH risk across most of OK.

Across eastern KS, northern OK, and western Missouri, initial supercells will probably grow upscale into a broader QLCS during the evening, with semi-discrete activity favored along the southern flank. Strengthening 850-700 mb southwesterlies suggest damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential could persist across the Mid-MS Valley towards the Lake MI vicinity overnight in a weak MLCAPE/high shear environment. Available CAM guidance does indicate a general alignment of QLCS with the deep-layer shear vector, suggesting of a sporadic severe threat mainly where embedded bowing segments/surges can develop.

Farther south, storm development will become increasingly probable as the accelerating cold front overtakes and merges with the front on Friday night. Outside of frontal convergence and low-level warm advection atop the undercutting front in western TX, large-scale ascent should remain nebulous. Large hail may accompany initial updrafts, with severe wind/tornado potential nocturnally limited.

..Grams.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, March 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, March 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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