Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060549
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.
Synopsis
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale through the evening.
Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low confidence in introducing higher probabilities.
As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.
Texas
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will be located to the east.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060510
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC
Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning. This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s, supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.
Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead of this activity and the front, intensification of morning convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected to be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060623
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday night.
TX
A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature, shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S. through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear. Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear where the best potential would develop across TX.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.
By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.
Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, May 6
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 8
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game