Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290049
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight.
Synopsis
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough over the Plains moving eastward ahead of a second, more intense, upper trough over the central and northern Rockies. As the primary trough intensifies to the west, the increases in west/southwesterly midlevel flow will help deep a surface low moving from eastern CO/western KS into OK tonight. The southerly winds will allow modest northward moisture return tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks.
As the surface low strengthens with the approach of the western trough this evening and overnight, low-level warm advection should also intensify. Strong isentropic ascent atop the cool and relatively dry boundary-layer over the southern Plains should support increasing coverage of showers and elevated thunderstorms already ongoing from central and western North TX into OK and eventually the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. With meager buoyancy aloft (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) the potential for stronger updrafts appears quite limited despite increasingly robust deep-layer shear profiles. While a stronger storm or two with the potential for small hail cannot be completely ruled out, severe potential remains very low.
..Lyons.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of this system, upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough moves out of the Maritimes.
At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO, western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such, low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.
Eastern TX into western LA
Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000 J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt, marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.
Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe probabilities.
..Jewell.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281910
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft will persist with nearly zonal flow.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.
Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is expected to remain non-severe.
..Jewell.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game