Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians, and over the western Florida Peninsula.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100548

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians, and over the western Florida Peninsula.

Southern and Central High Plains

At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will be build northeastward into the north-central U.S. today as a trough moves through the central Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the central Plains. Low-level convergence will become maximized this afternoon from eastern Colorado southward into northeast New Mexico. As surface heating takes place, thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain near this convergence axis, and move eastward into the central and southern High Plains. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. The threat may be greatest near the southern edge of the moist airmass from far southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas into the northern Texas Panhandle, where strong moisture convergence is forecast during the early to mid evening.

Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley

A very moist airmass will be in place today across the central U.S., where surface dewpoints will be mostly 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop near a moist axis extending west-to-east from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. Low-level convergence is expected to become maximized this afternoon along and south of the moist axis. MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a potential for severe wind gusts with any short line segment that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening, coincident with the maximum in instability.

Southern and Central Appalachians

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the southern and central Appalachians today. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region by afternoon. Topographic forcing and subtle large-scale ascent near the shortwave trough will support isolated to scattered convective development. Thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger multicells.

Western Florida Peninsula

Very moist air will be in place over the Gulf today, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As temperatures warm, a sea breeze boundary is expected to form near the coast of western Florida around midday. Thunderstorms will develop along this boundary as the it moves inland during the afternoon. Moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support a few severe gusts.

Eastern South Dakota/Southwest Minnesota

An axis of low-level moisture will be in place today from Iowa north-northwestward into southwest Minnesota and eastern South Dakota, where surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. Although low-level convergence is expected to remain weak, a storm or two associated with a marginal hail threat could develop and move southeastward along the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area, strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Synopsis

A strong midlevel ridge is expected to continue to build northward across the West on Saturday. Downstream of this ridge, a convectively augmented vorticity maximum is expected to be moving east-southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. Farther east, a mid-level short-wave trough will be moving across New England and out over the Atlantic Ocean.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will stretch from far southern New England west into the central US at the start of the period. This front will slowly move south during the day, across the Mid Atlantic and into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Plains. As the aforementioned convectively augmented vorticity maximum across the central US interacts with the residual surface front, weak cyclogenesis may occur across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

### Ozark Plateau into the Tennessee Valley

By afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-90Fs with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60Fs into the low 70Fs. This should yield an unstable environment, with MUCAPE values between 1500-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the surface boundary during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is generally expected to be on the order of 20-25 knots across the area, which should support multicell clusters growing upscale into southward moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds. Given precipitable water values around 2 inches and mean sub-cloud layer relative humidity around 40-50 percent, there is some potential for a couple of significant wind gusts associated with strong cold pool generation.

### Central and Southern Plains

Similar to areas farther east, temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 90Fs with dewpoints in the mid-60Fs to low-70Fs yielding MUCAPE values in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms should develop during the late afternoon along the surface boundary. High precipitable water values (generally around 1.75 to 2 inches), DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and sub-cloud layer mean relative humidity between 30-40 percent will support the potential for strong, damaging outflow winds – some potentially significant. A few occurrences of large hail will also be possible given the degree of instability and modest mid-level lapse rates.

Confidence in the location of where the surface boundary will initiate is lower than areas farther east, which yields lower confidence in adding higher wind probabilities. A Level 2/Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in the number and location of storms increases.

### Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida

Convergence along the southward moving front and the preceding lee trough should allow for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Although vertical shear is expected to remain generally less than 25 knots, a moderately unstable environment coupled with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should support strong to potentially damaging downbursts.

### Southern Arizona

East/northeast mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen slightly on Saturday to the south of the upper high, resulting in a belt of deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. A moist and unstable airmass across southern Arizona will support scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move west, the strengthening flow/shear will support a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday into Sunday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 100729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday into Sunday night.

Synopsis

The western ridge will continue to build northward on Sunday, with the highest 500-mb heights (nearing 600 dam) becoming centered over the Dakotas. To the south and east of this substantial ridge, ensemble guidance has a highly-positively tilted trough, with perhaps an embedded closed low, across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

At the surface, a weak boundary will stretch from west-to-east from the Southern Plains into the Southeast. The exact location of this boundary will be highly influenced by repeated rounds of convection the prior two days.

### Southeast

A very moist airmass will remain in place across the region with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs and 70Fs and precipitable water values around 2 inches likely to the south of the surface boundary. As diurnal heating occurs, scattered thunderstorms should once again develop along the residual surface boundary. Despite the proximity of a closed low/positively tilted trough, vertical wind shear will be generally less than 20 knots. The result will be scattered single cell and clusters of multicell thunderstorms capable of producing strong to perhaps damaging downbursts.

### Arizona

Modest easterly mid-level flow will persist across Arizona on Sunday as the region remains south of the closed mid-level high over the northern US. At the surface, southerly to westerly winds will combine with this mid-level flow to support around 30 knots of deep-layer shear. Model guidance shows a seasonably moist airmass in place across much of southern and western Arizona, with surface dewpoints rising into the upper-50Fs to mid-60Fs. The warm, moist environment in place will support afternoon thunderstorm development across the favored higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. The deep-layer flow should support at least a few of these storms moving west, off the terrain. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong downward momentum transport capable of producing damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorm.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100859 SPC AC 100859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into Wednesday.

### Tuesday/Day 5

GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the 70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell composite index to be greater than 1.

As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight hours.

### Friday/Day 8

Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 11

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game