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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, August 18

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central and northern High Plains, and from the Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190100

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central and northern High Plains, and from the Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley

The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level flow over the central U.S. with a shortwave trough embedded in the flow over western Kansas. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from the mid Mississippi Valley westward into the central Plains, where surface dewpoints are mostly from the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Low-level convergence is maximized along and near a well-defined outflow boundary located across central Kansas. Isolated severe thunderstorms are ongoing near this boundary. In this area, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts over the next few hours.

Further to the north across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, the RAP has strong instability analyzed with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing in western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. These storms will move toward the stronger instability over the next few hours. As this happens, the storms may increase in intensity. If this were to occur, the strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska would support a threat for hail and isolated severe wind gusts. A second severe threat area is expected to become active further east from northeast Kansas into west-central Missouri as low-level flow increases this evening. Thunderstorms are now developing in north-central Kansas and this convection should expand in coverage over the next couple of hours. The primary threat would be wind damage, especially if a short intense line segment can become organized. Along its path, severe wind gusts could exceed 70 mph…see MCD 2031. ### Midwest/Great Lakes

The latest water vapor imagery shows a distinct shortwave trough over the mid Mississippi Valley within west-northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from the mid Missouri Valley east-northeastward into the lower Michigan, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. An axis of low-level convergence is located from northern Iowa into far southern Wisconsin, along which thunderstorms are ongoing. A couple of cells have remained discrete across northwestern Iowa, where an axis of moderate instability is analyzed. As these cells move southeastward into north-central Iowa this evening, isolated large hail and a few severe wind gusts will be possible. Further east, the storms have organized into a line segment over far southern Wisconsin. These storms will have an isolated wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours. A marginal severe threat may also continue over parts of lower Michigan early this evening.

Central and Northern High Plains

West-northwesterly mid-level flow is currently located across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, with a distinct shortwave trough moving through Montana. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is present from eastern Wyoming into eastern Montana, along which surface dewpoints are near 60 F. This is contributing to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg along parts of the moist axis. Isolated strong to severe storms are ongoing near the moist axis in far northeast Wyoming and in northeast Montana. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail this evening.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Summary

One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts appear possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into Mid South, and perhaps central and southeastern Arizona, Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI…PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts appear possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into Mid South, and perhaps central and southeastern Arizona, Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Discussion

An initially notable cyclone to the southwest of Hudson Bay is forecast to weaken, with its broadening mid-level circulation redeveloping across and east of southern Hudson/James Bays through this period. To the south of this feature, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Northeast, downstream of initially building mid-level ridging across the Pacific Northwest through northern Rockies, to the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting northeastward toward the Four Corners region.

Beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer now advecting along the southern fringe of the westerlies, across the central Great Plains, toward the Mid South, a lower-level baroclinic zone, likely reinforced by convective outflow, may be in the process of advancing southward across the Mid South/Ozark Plateau and south central Great Plains (Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity) at the outset of the period. In the wake of one possible MCV initially migrating east-southeastward into the Mid South, and ahead of a possible trailing MCV, and trailing digging short wave impulse, it appears that the southward progression of the front may slow or stall across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South, while continuing more steadily, but slowly, across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. There is substantive spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, however.

Ozark Plateau/Mid South

Potential convective evolution Wednesday through Wednesday night remains uncertain. However, it appears that a notable belt of convectively augmented mid-level flow, including 30-50+ kt around 700 mb, will gradually nose from the lower Missouri through lower Ohio Valley during the day. Depending on how the near-surface boundary becomes oriented as this occurs, aided by a corridor of seasonably high moisture content along it, there appears potential for destabilization and shear to become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This may include supercells and/or one or two evolving clusters accompanied by developing swaths of strong to severe wind gusts through the period.

Southern Rockies into Great Plains

In the wake of the primary front, it appears that the boundary-layer will remain sufficiently moist to support modest instability in the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition across the middle into lower Missouri Valley. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with one lead digging short wave impulse, and a trailing one digging into/across the international border, at least widely scattered strong to severe storm development appears possible through the period, in the presence of favorable strong deep-layer shear.

A drier, but more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer by late Wednesday afternoon, near and to the lee of the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains, may also become conducive to widely scattered to scattered strong storms with potential to produce severe wind and hail, aided by a weak short wave impulse migrating around the Four Corners ridge.

Arizona

With the evolution/progression of the mid-level ridge, potential steering flow for convective development is forecast to take on a prominent easterly component with weak to modest strength by late Wednesday afternoon across much of the Mogollon Rim through lower deserts. Coupled with a preceding Gulf moisture surge, forecast soundings indicate profiles supportive of at least weak to moderate CAPE, even as the boundary-layer becomes hot and deeply mixed with 40-50F+ surface temperature/dew point spreads by peak afternoon heating. Initially more modest late afternoon instability in the lower deserts around Phoenix may gradually destabilize with boundary-layer moistening after sunset, eventually supporting the propagation of convection into/across the Greater Phoenix area by late evening. Details of the potential convective evolution remain uncertain, but at least some model output suggest the evolution of a substantive convective cluster is possible, which could become accompanied by more widespread strong to severe gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Summary

A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic and north central Great Plains into Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic and north central Great Plains into Upper Midwest.

Discussion

In advance of weak, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly approaching the Pacific coast, mid-level ridging may continue to amplify northward through the northern U.S. and Canadian Rockies, to the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting northeast of the Four Corners through this period. Downstream, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to gradually shift to the north and east of the Great Lakes and Northeast, but weak lingering troughing upstream may continue dig southeast of the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio valley toward the southern Appalachians. One or two, convective generated or augmented, perturbations may accelerate northeastward out of the Ohio Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic after emerging from the latter regime. In their wake, it appears that a surface frontal zone will continue a southward progression, reaching the southern Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf States and southern Great Plains Red River Valley by 12Z Friday.

Based on latest model output, convective potential through this period still appears relatively limited, or at least uncertain due to its dependence on sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. As a result, the prior outlook for this period has largely remained unchanged.

Mid Atlantic/Southeast

Latest model output suggests that stronger pre-frontal destabilization to the east of the Appalachians may be confined to the coastal plain, from northern North Carolina through the Delmarva Peninsula. Coupled with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow and forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching convectively augmented perturbation, the environment may become conducive to thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

North central Great Plains into Upper Midwest

A narrow corridor of stronger destabilization appears at least possible ahead of a short wave perturbation digging within modest northwesterly mid-level flow. It is possible that this could become sufficient to promote a risk for widely scattered strong storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind late Thursday afternoon into evening.

Southwest

Mid-level flow may transition to at least a bit more of a component to the south of east during this period, but still potentially conducive to propagation of convection off the higher terrain of central and southeastern Arizona, given sufficient destabilization in lower elevations. This remains uncertain due to potential impacts of convection Wednesday through Wednesday night, so will hold off on adding low severe probabilities for wind at this time.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.

On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.

Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.

There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.

On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.

Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.

There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.

On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.

Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.

There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.

On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.

Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.

There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180824 SPC AC 180824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Fri/D4 to Tue/D8 period, an upper ridge is forecast to expand from the Four Corners states into the Southern Plains, with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains shifting east across Midwest and into the Northeast.

On Fri/D4, scattered storms may occur across the Central Plains and Cornbelt, with areas of moisture and instability beneath the 30-40 kt northwest flow regime favor scattered hail or strong wind gusts. Predictability is low due to the likelihood of ongoing storms or convective systems early in the day, which may affect air mass quality and effective boundary positioning. However, the NE/KS/IA/MO region appears to be the most likely area for an eventual risk area.

Also on Fri/D4, storms are again expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic to Carolinas, where 25 kt southwest flow in the midlevels and a surface trough will support scattered storm clusters producing locally damaging gusts. Areas of ongoing storms or outflows from the previous day's convection may have an impact here as well as far as the most favorable zones for additional severe storms.

There may also be some potential on Sat/D5 to Sun/D6 over parts of the Mid Atlantic as cooling aloft with an upper trough moves across the area. Timing of this trough will be critical, as will the movement of the associated cold front.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 18

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, August 19

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, August 20

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, August 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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