Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230502

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley

An upper-level trough will move through the central Rockies this morning, and into the High Plains this afternoon as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase surface dewpoints into the mid 60s F by afternoon. This will contribute to moderate destabilization as surface temperatures warm along the moist axis. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop ahead of the front over the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys in the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage will rapidly expand southward into eastern Kansas by late afternoon, and into far northern Oklahoma during the early to mid evening. MCS development appears likely to take place along and ahead of the front.

The best environment for severe storms will be in eastern Kansas. In this area, RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon ahead of the front have MLCAPE peaking just above 3000 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range by 00Z, as at 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. This will support tornadoes with supercells. Supercells will initially be discrete but a line is expected to form by early evening. As the line forms, rotating cells within the line should also be capable of producing tornadoes. A strong tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. The southern edge of the line will impact far northern Oklahoma in the early to mid evening. Convective coverage should be isolated further south across the rest of Oklahoma.

Further north-northeast into Iowa and southern Minnesota, instability will not be as strong. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This, combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km should support large hail with supercells. Supercells and developing line segments should also be capable of producing wind damage, hail and a tornado or two.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Summary

Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower Ohio Valley as well.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower Ohio Valley as well.

Synopsis

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader cyclonic flow.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40 corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains. Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However, localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent, but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment could produce large hail.

Portions of the Ohio Valley

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas during the evening. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of North Texas during the afternoon.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas during the evening. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of North Texas during the afternoon.

Synopsis

Increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread the Southern and Central Plains on Saturday as the midlevel pattern responds to a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into the Southwest. This will induce strong southerly winds across the Plains, helping to quickly draw an old frontal boundary northward. This boundary should be oriented from northwest to southeast across portions of Oklahoma by late Saturday.

Portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Arkansas

Most of the day should be devoid of thunderstorms as mid-level heights rise downstream of a digging trough across the Southwest. At the same time, strong southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture northward from the far Southern Plains into the Central Plains. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in the development of strong instability across much of the area, as maximum SBCAPE values approach 4000 J/kg across portions of north Texas into central Oklahoma.

During the late evening a subtle perturbation within the southwest flow is forecast to approach Oklahoma. In response to this, the low-level jet is forecast to increase to between 30 and 40 knots. As it crosses the northward moving warm front, this warm-air advection/isentropic ascent will combine with modest large-scale ascent from the approaching midlevel perturbation to support scattered thunderstorm develop on the north side of the moisture gradient. Although differences exist between the various models, the generic depiction of forecast soundings show long hodographs with varying degrees of low-level curvature in the presence of 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Thus, any storm that develops within the environment will be capable of producing all hazards initially. With time, thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more southeast moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds with perhaps a QLCS tornado threat.

North Texas into Southern Oklahoma

Diurnal heating of a moist airmass to the east of a dryline will result in an extremely unstable airmass developing by the afternoon. Although the region will be devoid of large-scale forcing for ascent, temperatures in the 90Fs to the west of the dryline may be sufficient to induce dryline circulations capable of initiating isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing very large hail.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 23

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Friday, April 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game