Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 14

Monday, June 15

Tuesday, June 16

Wednesday, June 17

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm activity spreading toward the northern Mid Atlantic urban corridor this evening could still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two, before weakening and spreading offshore.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150042

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm activity spreading toward the northern Mid Atlantic urban corridor this evening could still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two, before weakening and spreading offshore.

01Z Update

Low-level lapse rates are beginning to stabilize and the boundary-layer remains only modestly moist inland of coastal areas from New Jersey northward. However, the leading edge of a plume of boundary-layer moisture return characterized by upper 60s to near 70F surface dew points is still contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg across parts of central and eastern Maryland into southeastern Pennsylvania, where temperatures remain near 80 F. With stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent still upstream, vigorous thunderstorm development may be maintained into and across much of eastern Pennsylvania and portions of the lower Hudson Valley through mid to late evening.

Low-level hodographs across this region still appear conducive to at least some risk for a tornado, mainly in the more discrete stronger cells preceding the pre-frontal convective line. While the line has recently been weakening, some re-intensification still appears possible, which could be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts, in the presence of 40-50 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141731

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

Synopsis

Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern US on Monday. Embedded within the larger-scale trough will be several short-wave troughs quickly moving through. The first of these will be located across the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the start of the forecast period before quickly moving east off the East Coast by the end of the period. A second short-wave trough will dig southeast out of Canada across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary will hangup across the northern Gulf states, with a warm, moist airmass to the south and a continental cooler, drier airmass to the north. A secondary cold front will push quickly south and east across much of the Plains, stretching from southeast Colorado into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday morning.

### Southern Rockies/High Plains into Southwest Kansas

Easterly winds early Monday will turn southeasterly to southerly by late afternoon in response to surface troughing associated with the approaching mid-level short-wave trough. This will draw modest surface moisture northwestward into higher terrain of southeast Colorado (upper 40Fs dewpoints) and plains of southwest Kansas (upper 50Fs dewpoints).

At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen in response to the approaching short-wave trough. The result will be effective shear in the 30-40 knot range across the area by late afternoon, strengthening into the evening hours as the southerly nocturnal boundary layer wind maximum develops.

Thermodynamically, the northwesterly flow will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates. These lapse rates, coupled with diurnal heating, will yield MUCAPE values from around 500 J/kg in the higher terrain of southeast Colorado to around 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Continued low-level theta-e advection overnight should maintain or increase instability across the area during the overnight.

Current thinking is that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across terrain favored areas of eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. Strengthening mid-level flow should then support storm movement to the east/southeast into the High Plains. Initial thunderstorms should be capable of producing marginally severe hail. The potential exists for some isolated significant hail where higher instability exists. With time congealing thunderstorm outflows should result in an east/southeast moving cluster of storms with a potential for strong, gusty winds.

A small 15% hail or wind probability may be needed in later updates if confidence in storm coverage across southwest Kansas and portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles continues to increase.

Northern Plains and Upper Midwest

Despite scant low-level moisture, steepening mid-level lapse rates may support thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. These storms should be relatively high-based with dry sub-cloud layers. Strong, gusty winds will be possible with these storms. A 5% wind area was considered, but low confidence in overall coverage of gusty winds precluded the introduction at this time.

### Northern Gulf Coast States and Florida

A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the sagging/stalled surface front. Poor lapse rates should limit CAPE generation, but diurnal heating of this very moist airmass should yield MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg across portions of the area. This area is south of the main mid-level flow, which should limit overall thunderstorm organization, but high water content may result in a few wet downbursts capable of producing isolated damaging wind. The overall coverage looks to remain too low to warrant unconditional 5% wind probabilities at this time, but will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks, particularly across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

..Marsh.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.

Synopsis

Broad mid-level troughing across the eastern US will persist on Tuesday. A short-wave trough will move across the Great Lakes as it moves through the basal region of the eastern US long-wave trough. Late in the forecast period, a second short-wave trough will dig southeast into the northern Plains.

At the surface, one front will be draped across the northern Gulf Coast states, suppressing the richest boundary layer moisture to the south. A second front will quickly move from the Upper Midwest across the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday morning as a surface low slowly pivots across the Lake Superior.

Overnight Tuesday, cyclogenesis will occur across the northern Plains in response to the approaching short-wave trough. A deepening surface low will induce more substantial northward moisture advection from the southern into central Plains.

### Midwest into Lower Michigan

Low-level moisture return will be tempered on Tuesday, owing to the stalled front across the northern Gulf Coast states and only modest low-level mass response to the approaching mid-level short-wave trough. That said, modest southwesterly moisture advection ahead of the cold front should support a narrow corridor of surface dewpoints rising into the upper-50Fs to low-60Fs. At the same time, mid-level lapse rates should steepen with the approaching trough, resulting in MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, conditioned on the quality of the moisture return. Storms, perhaps multiple rounds, should develop along or ahead of the advancing front. Gusty winds and hail should be the main hazards, with storms generally weakening with eastward extent due to the loss of diurnal heating and weaker moisture return.

..Marsh.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 17	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140744 SPC AC 140744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday – Mid-MS and Ohio Valley vicinity

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intense jet streak (especially by June standards) is forecast to overspread portions of the Midwest. The ECMWF and GFS suite of forecast guidance still is indicating a 500 mb jet streak greater than 80 kt overspreading the region by evening. Furthermore, low and midlevel flow will also be quite strong, with a daytime 850 mb low-level jet around 40-50 kt by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen and move across the Upper MS Valley and Lower MI through the period. A warm front is forecast to move rapidly northward across IL and portions of the OH Valley through 00z. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will develop eastward across the region through the period. The warm sector will be characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, and areas of strong destabilization are expected. While details concerning convective evolution remain uncertain, the overall environment will support supercells with upscale development into a bowing MCS possible by evening as the low-level jet continues to increase and spread east/northeast across the region. All severe hazards appear likely, with the greatest risk likely emerging across portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley where significant severe storms are expected. Some severe risk will likely persist into the nighttime hours across parts of the Ohio Valley given intense deep-layer flow and sufficient instability.

Some details will likely change in subsequent outlooks as the track of the surface low and orientation of the mid/upper level jet streak atop the develop surface warm sector become better resolved closer to the event. The risk areas may shift some as these details become clearer.

Day 5/Thursday – Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, with a strong southwesterly jet streak forecast to overspread parts of the Ohio Valley into New England. The jet streak may tend to become increasing displaced from better low-level moisture/thermodynamic with time and eastward extent through the period. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front and a severe risk should unfold across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Northward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as early period convection and widespread rainfall may hinder destabilization. The best overlap of favorable vertical shear and instability is delineated by the 15 percent probabilities from OH/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind potential is likely to be the main concern.

Days 6-8/Friday-Sunday

Large spread among medium range guidance during the end of the forecast period leads to low predictability. The surface front from Day 4/5 will likely stall across the southern U.S. and periods of heavy rain will be possible across the Southeast. Late in the period, some signal for moisture return and a deepening lee low over the Plains could bring some increasing severe risk, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Monday, June 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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