Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible from the Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061223
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible from the Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.
Ozarks westward into the southern High Plains
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over AZ/UT and a broad trough over the Upper Midwest favoring modest west-northwesterly mid to high-level flow across the central Plains. Several clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the mid MS Valley and lower MO Valley into the OK-KS border region. Much of this activity is located to the north of a residual front and outflow draped from the TX Panhandle east-northeast into the mid MS Valley. South of the boundary, an appreciably moist airmass, featuring 50s F dewpoints west to lower 70s east, will heat in areas void of convection and related cloud debris. It is uncertain how much influence morning showers/storms will have across the Slight Risk area. Nonetheless, model forecast soundings show moderate destabilization occurring by mid-late afternoon across much of this region. Isolated to widely scattered storms will preferentially develop near the effective front/outflow. Some storm organization is possible with the main threat being isolated to widely scattered severe gusts. Have adjusted the level 1 intensity for wind to northern OK westward into the southern High Plains where steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. A couple of multicell clusters may eventually evolve during the early evening. A relative minimum in storm activity may occur over parts of the TX Panhandle in between storms over the northeast NM/western part of the TX Panhandle and higher coverage of storms farther east over northern OK into the Ozarks.
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface trough. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to mid 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of an isolated risk for wind damage.
Western Nebraska/southern South Dakota
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could be capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail.
..Smith/Bentley.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060539
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION…AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.
IA…southeast MN…WI…Upper MI
Moderate northwest flow aloft will move across the northern Plains and into the Upper MS Valley, with a cold front extending from northwest WI into IA by late afternoon. A moist air mass with 70s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. Supporting the potentially strong instability will be relatively cool 500 mb temperatures to around -10 C.
Storms are likely to form during the afternoon along the front with scattered marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong. Some potential may develop for an MCS over southern areas including IA, and this area will be monitored for potential greater wind probabilities.
Northern VA into PA and southern NY
Midlevel southwesterlies around 25 kt will exist across the northeastern states on Friday, with weak height falls occurring as a primary upper trough moves across the Great Lake region. In the low levels, west/southwest winds around the Atlantic high will maintain a warm/moist air mass, which when heated during the afternoon should yield up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, especially near the coastal areas where dewpoints will be higher.
Despite lack of any surface boundaries, model consensus is for scattered storms to develop from northern VA/MD into central to eastern PA and across southern NY during the afternoon. Shear will be weak but a few clusters of storms may produce gusty winds.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060711
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.
Mid to Lower MO Valley
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday, as the main upper wave rotates northeast from Ontario into Quebec. The southern periphery of this stronger flow aloft will remain over the middle to lower MO Valley, with a warm front developing across NE and IA. Strong heating will occur east of a surface low either in western NE or KS, with south winds resulting in a deep mixed layer by afternoon.
Storms are expected to form over NE, and possibly move into IA or MO through evening in the form of an MCS. This would be fueled by a strengthening southerly low-level jet as well, suggesting an organized system may occur. For now, low probabilities have been added due to uncertainty with placement of any such corridor. Damaging winds would be the main concern.
Mid Atlantic
Scattered afternoon storms will again be likely over much of the eastern states on Saturday, within a modest southwest flow regime. A high PW environment will remain in place, supporting an uncapped air mass and conditional/localized wind risk. Predictability is low at this time given possible antecedent rain or thunderstorm areas, but low probabilities for wind could be added in later updates.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, August 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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