Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Isolated wind gusts and hail will also be possible in the western Great Lakes and from the southern Texas Panhandle into west Texas and far western Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270554
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Isolated wind gusts and hail will also be possible in the western Great Lakes and from the southern Texas Panhandle into west Texas and far western Oklahoma.
Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley
An upper-level trough will move southeastward today across the Great Lakes. Flow ahead of the trough will be westerly over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the Ohio Valley. South of the front, dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. As low-level convergence and instability maximizes near the front, thunderstorms are expected to form and move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the front in northern Virginia at 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This will support organized thunderstorms, potentially in the form of multiple short severe line segments. During the mid to late afternoon, low-level lapse rates are forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km, which will be favorable for a wind-damage threat. Hail will also be possible within the stronger cores.
Western Great Lakes
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level moisture will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms that form during the afternoon that have access to moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates could have potential for isolated wind gusts. Hail could also occur.
Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma
At low-levels, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to advect northward across west Texas into the southern Texas Panhandle today. A zone of low-level convergence will likely develop over the southern Texas Panhandle, with upslope flow to the north of this feature. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the convergence zone. RAP forecast soundings to the south and east of Amarillo at 21Z have steep low to mid-level lapse rates with large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This may be enough for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270525
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON…NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.
Synopsis & Discussion
An upper low will move slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from UT northward across ID, OR and WA. Cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb winds enhancing deep-layer shear. A surface trough will also deepen during the afternoon roughly from UT into eastern WA, with strong heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.
Scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over central OR, with additional activity extending northeastward across northern ID, eastern WA and northwest MT. Though total CAPE values are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates. This will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.
Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and evening from KS/OK into the Southeast. Winds aloft and shear will be weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not expected. Still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Summary
A few storms may produce large hail from eastern New Mexico into western Texas on Friday. Strong storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS…AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA
### SUMMARY
A few storms may produce large hail from eastern New Mexico into western Texas on Friday. Strong storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail.
Southern High Plains
Modest westerly flow aloft will spread across NM and into TX, with cool midlevel temperatures resulting in steep lapse rates. A surface trough will be situated over far eastern NM, and scattered storms are likely to develop during the afternoon with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. Up to 30 kt deep-layer shear and ample moisture/instability may support a few severe slow-moving cells producing large hail. These storms will likely spread into the TX Panhandle/South Plains during the evening, with localized wind potential as well.
Western MT
An upper low/shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Basin on Friday, taking on a negative tilt. Extending north of this low will be a belt of 30 kt southerly winds around 500 mb, with a bit stronger speeds in the upper levels. A surface trough will deepen over central MT, with a cold front pushing across western MT. The cool temperatures aloft/steep lapse rate environment should support at least marginal hail, while favorable afternoon timing with boundary layer mixed layers will support strong downdrafts. This should result in at least isolated strong to severe cells moving northeastward across western MT during the afternoon.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, May 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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