Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southwest today into tonight, with the most intense cells forecast across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221244
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southwest today into tonight, with the most intense cells forecast across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible.
Southwest into the Great Basin
Occasional supercells across portions of east-central AZ have persisted through much of the early morning hours, aided by continued large-scale ascent associated with a 50-70 kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet and low-level upslope flow across the Mogollon Rim. Strong deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt and generally long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels noted on the latest KFSX/KIWA VWPs will support organized updrafts through the remainder of the morning amid 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE (greater with southward extent). See Mesoscale Discussion 2396 for more details on the short-term threat across AZ.
Current expectations are for additional intense thunderstorms to develop by 18-21Z across the higher terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity as an upper trough/low over CA moves inland over the Great Basin. The mid-level jet attendant to the upper trough/low will also translate eastward through the day, with strong deep-layer shear remaining over a gradually destabilizing airmass. The primary severe threat should remain large hail with any sustained supercells (isolated 2+ inches possible). But, the risk for severe/damaging winds may increase by mid to late afternoon as convection spreads from eastern AZ into western NM, with some potential for clustering. A few tornadoes also appear possible, mainly over east-central AZ this afternoon when the best combination of greater boundary-layer instability and low-level shear are forecast to overlap. While the severe threat across these areas will peak in the mid to late afternoon when instability is strongest, at least an isolated threat should continue through much of the evening with eastward extent into western/central NM before convection eventually weakens.
Farther north into the Great Basin, both low-level moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so, multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind potential may exist this afternoon as convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the troposphere. Recent short-term guidance suggests a small cluster may form and spread northeastward across northern NV into southern ID, with some potential for strong to locally severe gusts.
Coastal Southern California
Additional organized bands of low-topped convection appear unlikely this morning into the afternoon across coastal southern CA. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this update.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New Mexico on Friday.
Synopsis
A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough, thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and instability reside.
Western into central New Mexico
As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon, thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating. Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will traverse the Desert Southwest and impinge on the southern High Plains on Saturday. This will provoke a low-level mass response in the form of northwestward moisture advection through the day. Cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft associated with the cut-off low will overspread the low-level moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and shear overlap to support an isolated severe threat.
Portions of central NM into Far West TX
Through the afternoon, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates from the approaching cut-off low will overspread mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints and backed southeasterly surface winds. With surface heating of the aforementioned moist low-level airmass, MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg, perhaps locally exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots given locally greater insolation. Veering and strengthening flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of effective bulk shear expected. Multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells may develop and persist for at least a few hours before merging into a loosely organized line of thunderstorms. Storms should be at their strongest during their supercell stage, capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.
..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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