Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, March 9

Tuesday, March 10

Wednesday, March 11

Thursday, March 12

Friday, March 13

Saturday, March 14

Sunday, March 15

Monday, March 16

Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and central Gulf states.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090658

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and central Gulf states.

Mid-South/Central Gulf States

Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by 10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the southern Plains into the northern Gulf states.

Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time. Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA during the evening.

Southern AZ

Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest convection.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 15%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA…AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

Synopsis

A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley/southern Great Lakes vicinity. A somewhat bi-modal severe risk appears possible within a split-flow upper level pattern. All severe hazards appear possible, especially within a corridor across portions of TX, and a second corridor from northern MO into northern/central IL and northwest IN.

Expansive area of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, aided by two separate upper troughs. The first is associated with an upper low/trough across northwest Mexico and the Southwest, which will shift east into the southern High Plains by Wednesday. The second is a broad but deepening upper trough moving across the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Two areas of low pressure are expected to develop with the approaching of these upper systems, one over the central/southern High Plains and the other across the Lower MO/Mid-MS valley. A dryline/Pacific front will be oriented across western TX, while a warm front extends west to east from near northern MO/southeast IA into northern IL/IN. By evening, a cold front will begin to develop southeast across KS/MO/IA/IL/IN, and the Pacific front will shift east across central TX. These boundaries will be the focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

Mid-MO Valley to southern Great Lakes vicinity

Capping will likely suppress convection for much of the day within a strong warm advection regime. Surface dewpoints are expected to climb into the low/mid-60s south of the warm front beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Convection is expected to develop within the 21-00z time frame when a 40 kt low-level jet is expected to overspread the region. Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings, with hodographs exhibiting enhanced low-level curvature, with lengthened/straight hodographs above 2-3 km. Given a favorable thermodynamic environment, large hail to 2.5 inches appears possible with storms both within the warm sector and initial activity that may develop within the cooler air north of the front. Furthermore, any cells that develop within the warm sector and interact with the front will encounter enhanced low-level shear/SRH and tornadoes (some EF-2+) will be possible. With time during the evening, convection will likely grow upscale into one or more southeast-advancing linear segments near the advancing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with this activity overnight.

Southern Plains vicinity

Convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline across western TX by mid to late afternoon. Initial supercells are possible and could produce large hail (to around 2 inch diameter) and a couple of tornadoes. Convection may quickly grow upscale as the Pacific front overtakes the dryline and large-scale ascent increases rapidly by 00z.

Uncertainty increases with northward extent across OK/KS into southern MO/AR. These areas will be within the broad warm sector and moderate to strongly sheared environment. However, this area will also be between the two areas of stronger ascent. Some capping may persist and it is unclear how convection may evolve across these areas.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090720

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity.

East Texas northeast to the Ohio Valley vicinity

A split-flow regime will continue into Wednesday, with upper troughing over the central U.S. remaining bifurcated through much of the period. In the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave trough will migrate from TX to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the northern stream upper trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop east across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from east TX into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. At the surface, a cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern Lower MI into western OK. This front will advance southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture as far north as the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of the ArkLaTex into the Midwest. This, along with the warm advection regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with northeast extent into parts of the Ohio Valley vicinity. Somewhat stronger destabilization is likely across the Lower MS Valley where richer Gulf moisture will reside. Strong vertical wind profiles will support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. Linear convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent overspreading the boundary. If discrete cells can form, some tornado potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley, and perhaps near a secondary surface low over the lower MS Valley, though this scenario remains highly uncertain.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, March 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, March 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, March 10: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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