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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, November 28
Saturday, November 29
Sunday, November 30
Monday, December 1
Tuesday, December 2
Wednesday, December 3
Thursday, December 4
Friday, December 5

Outlook for Friday, November 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 290049

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight.

Synopsis

Evening water-vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough over the Plains moving eastward ahead of a second, more intense, upper trough over the central and northern Rockies. As the primary trough intensifies to the west, the increases in west/southwesterly midlevel flow will help deep a surface low moving from eastern CO/western KS into OK tonight. The southerly winds will allow modest northward moisture return tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks.

As the surface low strengthens with the approach of the western trough this evening and overnight, low-level warm advection should also intensify. Strong isentropic ascent atop the cool and relatively dry boundary-layer over the southern Plains should support increasing coverage of showers and elevated thunderstorms already ongoing from central and western North TX into OK and eventually the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. With meager buoyancy aloft (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) the potential for stronger updrafts appears quite limited despite increasingly robust deep-layer shear profiles. While a stronger storm or two with the potential for small hail cannot be completely ruled out, severe potential remains very low.

..Lyons.. 11/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, November 29

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of this system, upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough moves out of the Maritimes.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO, western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such, low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.

Eastern TX into western LA

Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000 J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt, marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.

Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Sunday, November 30

Outlook Summary

A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281910

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Synopsis

A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft will persist with nearly zonal flow.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.

Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is expected to remain non-severe.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Monday, December 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 1 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 2 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 3 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 4 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 5 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, December 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 1 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 2 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 3 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 4 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 5 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, December 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 1 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 2 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 3 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 4 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 5 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, December 4

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 1 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 2 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 3 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 4 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 5 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, December 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 1 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 2 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 3 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 4 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 5 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, November 28
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, November 29
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 30
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 1
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 2
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, December 3
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 4
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 5
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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