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Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is forecast.
← back to overviewSPC AC 271917
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is forecast.
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY. Isolated lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10% coverage.
..Hart.. 03/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/
Synopsis
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later today.
In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt) across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50 mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across portions of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, but the potential for severe thunderstorms is low.
← back to overviewSPC AC 271652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across portions of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, but the potential for severe thunderstorms is low.
Synopsis
Northwesterly flow aloft will deamplify as an upper trough shifts offshore over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will progress southward across the northern/central FL Peninsula. Strong heating and a seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula and Keys by peak heating and into the early evening. However, very weak deep-layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a dry/stable airmass and strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida Peninsula and portions of southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
← back to overviewSPC AC 271911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida Peninsula and portions of southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
Quasi-zonal flow is forecast across the CONUS on Sunday while a mostly dry and stable boundary layer will persist, limiting thunderstorm potential. The exception will be across portions of the FL Peninsula and Keys. A seasonally moist airmass will persist near a decaying frontal boundary. Strong heating will support weak destabilization and isolated thunderstorms may develop along sea breeze interactions or the residual frontal boundary. A few thunderstorms also will be possible across the far southern AZ/southwest NM vicinity where steep midlevel lapse rates atop warm/moist advection in lower levels will support sufficient destabilization. A weak shortwave impulse will migrate across the region during the late afternoon/evening and could provide enough ascent for a few thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270853 SPC AC 270853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An uptick in severe thunderstorm potential is expected through the upcoming work week and heading into next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for a return to mean troughing across the western to central CONUS as a long-wave ridge gradually de-amplifies and shifts east. This upper-level flow regime will promote steady lee troughing/cyclogenesis along the High Plains, which in conjunction with the placement of a surface high off the East Coast, will promote moisture return northward into the Plains and MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible multiple days next week as ascent associated with upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow regime overspread the moisture plume.
D4/Monday - Upper Mississippi Valley
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border during the D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday time frame. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains. A broad swath of isentropic ascent with in the warm conveyor of the developing cyclone will likely support showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the upper MS Valley late Monday. A few deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z ECMWF, hint that the convective environment will be conducive for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. However, ensemble agreement regarding this potential is limited.
D5/Tuesday - Lake Michigan Vicinity
Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D5/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Above-seasonal moisture return northward into the Great Lakes region is anticipated by late Tuesday, which should support adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Thunderstorm development appears likely along a trailing cold front as it pushes southeast into the Midwest and MS Valley. Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity where mid/upper-level flow should be stronger in vicinity to the upper jet and may be more orthogonal to the front and supportive of more robust convection compared to locations further south.
Despite the trend towards a more consolidated solution, notable discrepancies remain pertaining to the propagation speed of the upper wave and surface low, which introduces uncertainty in how favorably timed the strongest ascent will be with peak heating/destabilization and potential storm modes. These uncertainties preclude probabilities at this time, but highlights will likely be introduced as model consensus improves.
..Moore.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270853 SPC AC 270853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An uptick in severe thunderstorm potential is expected through the upcoming work week and heading into next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for a return to mean troughing across the western to central CONUS as a long-wave ridge gradually de-amplifies and shifts east. This upper-level flow regime will promote steady lee troughing/cyclogenesis along the High Plains, which in conjunction with the placement of a surface high off the East Coast, will promote moisture return northward into the Plains and MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible multiple days next week as ascent associated with upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow regime overspread the moisture plume.
D4/Monday - Upper Mississippi Valley
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border during the D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday time frame. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains. A broad swath of isentropic ascent with in the warm conveyor of the developing cyclone will likely support showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the upper MS Valley late Monday. A few deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z ECMWF, hint that the convective environment will be conducive for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. However, ensemble agreement regarding this potential is limited.
D5/Tuesday - Lake Michigan Vicinity
Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D5/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Above-seasonal moisture return northward into the Great Lakes region is anticipated by late Tuesday, which should support adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Thunderstorm development appears likely along a trailing cold front as it pushes southeast into the Midwest and MS Valley. Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity where mid/upper-level flow should be stronger in vicinity to the upper jet and may be more orthogonal to the front and supportive of more robust convection compared to locations further south.
Despite the trend towards a more consolidated solution, notable discrepancies remain pertaining to the propagation speed of the upper wave and surface low, which introduces uncertainty in how favorably timed the strongest ascent will be with peak heating/destabilization and potential storm modes. These uncertainties preclude probabilities at this time, but highlights will likely be introduced as model consensus improves.
..Moore.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270853 SPC AC 270853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An uptick in severe thunderstorm potential is expected through the upcoming work week and heading into next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for a return to mean troughing across the western to central CONUS as a long-wave ridge gradually de-amplifies and shifts east. This upper-level flow regime will promote steady lee troughing/cyclogenesis along the High Plains, which in conjunction with the placement of a surface high off the East Coast, will promote moisture return northward into the Plains and MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible multiple days next week as ascent associated with upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow regime overspread the moisture plume.
D4/Monday - Upper Mississippi Valley
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border during the D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday time frame. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains. A broad swath of isentropic ascent with in the warm conveyor of the developing cyclone will likely support showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the upper MS Valley late Monday. A few deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z ECMWF, hint that the convective environment will be conducive for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. However, ensemble agreement regarding this potential is limited.
D5/Tuesday - Lake Michigan Vicinity
Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D5/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Above-seasonal moisture return northward into the Great Lakes region is anticipated by late Tuesday, which should support adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Thunderstorm development appears likely along a trailing cold front as it pushes southeast into the Midwest and MS Valley. Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity where mid/upper-level flow should be stronger in vicinity to the upper jet and may be more orthogonal to the front and supportive of more robust convection compared to locations further south.
Despite the trend towards a more consolidated solution, notable discrepancies remain pertaining to the propagation speed of the upper wave and surface low, which introduces uncertainty in how favorably timed the strongest ascent will be with peak heating/destabilization and potential storm modes. These uncertainties preclude probabilities at this time, but highlights will likely be introduced as model consensus improves.
..Moore.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270853 SPC AC 270853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An uptick in severe thunderstorm potential is expected through the upcoming work week and heading into next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for a return to mean troughing across the western to central CONUS as a long-wave ridge gradually de-amplifies and shifts east. This upper-level flow regime will promote steady lee troughing/cyclogenesis along the High Plains, which in conjunction with the placement of a surface high off the East Coast, will promote moisture return northward into the Plains and MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible multiple days next week as ascent associated with upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow regime overspread the moisture plume.
D4/Monday - Upper Mississippi Valley
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border during the D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday time frame. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains. A broad swath of isentropic ascent with in the warm conveyor of the developing cyclone will likely support showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the upper MS Valley late Monday. A few deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z ECMWF, hint that the convective environment will be conducive for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. However, ensemble agreement regarding this potential is limited.
D5/Tuesday - Lake Michigan Vicinity
Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D5/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Above-seasonal moisture return northward into the Great Lakes region is anticipated by late Tuesday, which should support adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Thunderstorm development appears likely along a trailing cold front as it pushes southeast into the Midwest and MS Valley. Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity where mid/upper-level flow should be stronger in vicinity to the upper jet and may be more orthogonal to the front and supportive of more robust convection compared to locations further south.
Despite the trend towards a more consolidated solution, notable discrepancies remain pertaining to the propagation speed of the upper wave and surface low, which introduces uncertainty in how favorably timed the strongest ascent will be with peak heating/destabilization and potential storm modes. These uncertainties preclude probabilities at this time, but highlights will likely be introduced as model consensus improves.
..Moore.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270853 SPC AC 270853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An uptick in severe thunderstorm potential is expected through the upcoming work week and heading into next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for a return to mean troughing across the western to central CONUS as a long-wave ridge gradually de-amplifies and shifts east. This upper-level flow regime will promote steady lee troughing/cyclogenesis along the High Plains, which in conjunction with the placement of a surface high off the East Coast, will promote moisture return northward into the Plains and MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible multiple days next week as ascent associated with upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow regime overspread the moisture plume.
D4/Monday - Upper Mississippi Valley
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border during the D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday time frame. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains. A broad swath of isentropic ascent with in the warm conveyor of the developing cyclone will likely support showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the upper MS Valley late Monday. A few deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z ECMWF, hint that the convective environment will be conducive for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. However, ensemble agreement regarding this potential is limited.
D5/Tuesday - Lake Michigan Vicinity
Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D5/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Above-seasonal moisture return northward into the Great Lakes region is anticipated by late Tuesday, which should support adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Thunderstorm development appears likely along a trailing cold front as it pushes southeast into the Midwest and MS Valley. Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity where mid/upper-level flow should be stronger in vicinity to the upper jet and may be more orthogonal to the front and supportive of more robust convection compared to locations further south.
Despite the trend towards a more consolidated solution, notable discrepancies remain pertaining to the propagation speed of the upper wave and surface low, which introduces uncertainty in how favorably timed the strongest ascent will be with peak heating/destabilization and potential storm modes. These uncertainties preclude probabilities at this time, but highlights will likely be introduced as model consensus improves.
..Moore.. 03/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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