Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060025
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.
01 Update
Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary, but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts.
..Darrow.. 12/06/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051650
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley.
Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.
..Dean.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051904
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.
Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be sufficiently deep for lightning production.
Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the organized-severe threat.
..Dean.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, December 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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