Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291949
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana through tonight.
20z Update
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required - mainly removal of thunder probabilities across portions of OK/KS/MO where the mid-level vorticity maximum and surface cold front have already passed through. Across east/southeast TX, modest low-level moisture advection continues northward with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s for a few locations - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by high-res guidance. This additional heating combined with persistent, but shallow, convective showers across southeast TX lend confidence that at least a few attempts at deeper convection are likely by peak heating in the coming hours. Any appreciable tornado threat will likely be limited to near/along a diffuse warm frontal zone draped roughly from the Houston to Waco, TX area where low-level winds remain south/southeasterly. Further north near the DFW metro, deepening cumulus is noted in visible imagery where the surface cold front is impinging on the northern extent of appreciable MLCAPE. Thunderstorm development along the front appears likely in the coming hours, but the modest buoyancy profiles should modulate convective intensity. See the previous discussion for additional details.
..Moore.. 11/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025/
Central/East/Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Plains this morning will continue to progress quickly east-northeastward today across the mid MS Valley/Midwest and OH Valley. A related surface low over eastern KS will likewise develop northeastward towards IL by this evening, with an attendant cold front sweeping south-southeastward across OK/TX and the ArkLaTex through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue to aid the northward transport of a partially modified Gulf airmass over portions of central/east TX and perhaps western LA. Thunderstorms should eventually develop by late afternoon/early evening along the front across north-central TX and vicinity, even though large-scale ascent will remain nebulous behind the departing mid-level shortwave trough.
Filtered daytime heating will result in modest destabilization across the warm sector today, although mid-level lapse rates are not expected to remain modest. Sufficient deep-layer shear associated with a subtropical/southern branch of a mid/upper-level jet should support some updraft organization. Hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained. But, the surging cold front will likely undercut convection fairly quickly. There also appears to be some chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front from parts of central into southeast TX late this afternoon. The large-scale forcing for ascent with southward extent will remain weak/nebulous at best, but low-level confluence may aid in convective initiation across this area. If these thunderstorms can develop, they would have access to greater instability and sufficient low-level shear to pose some threat for a tornado or two. However, the overall environment still supports maintaining a Marginal Risk given the departing shortwave trough and related large-scale forcing, modest lapse rates aloft, and tendency for the low-level flow to gradually weaken/veer with time through this evening and tonight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291645
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Gulf Coast vicinity
Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday, with one embedded shortwave traversing the Midwest to Northeast, while a second shortwave deepens as it moves from the Northwest into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains early in the day and overspread much of the country by early Monday.
Early Sunday on the southern/eastern periphery of the surface high, a cold front will extend from VA/NC southwestward across the Deep South and northwest Gulf into South Texas. The front will progress south and east through the period, eventually moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and into central FL. Modest instability is expected to develop mainly offshore over the Gulf and perhaps the FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the coast within a band of moist/warm advection aided by modest midlevel southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 291800
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Gulf Coast/Southeast
An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to southern Rockies will develop eastward to the Great Lakes and Lower MS Valley on Monday. Strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Southeast. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf on Day 2/Sunday and surface high pressure persisting across the Midwest and eastern states will limit northward transport of richer Gulf moisture, keeping any quality moisture very near the coast. Nevertheless, increasing midlevel moisture and steepening lapse rates aloft, and another approaching cold front could support isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity once again on Monday. Severe storms are not expected as destabilization will remain meager.
..Leitman.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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