Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171614
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough over the East and a closed low near the California/Baja California border. An extensive area of tranquil conditions influenced by surface high pressure will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S. Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the southern half of the FL Peninsula primarily through sunset before much of the convective activity is relegated to the FL Straits and offshore waters tonight. Weak thunderstorms are possible tonight in association with the upper low over southern AZ.
..Smith/Supinie.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171659
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
A strong upper trough will move east across central Canada on Sunday, with a weak upper ridge over the central/southern Plains. This ridge will be flanked by an upper low off the coastal Carolinas, and a weak positive-tilt wave moving from northern Baja CA into AZ.
At the surface, a prominent high will extend from New England all the way into the southern Plains, with offshore winds across the Gulf and East Coast. This will maintain a stable pattern over most of the CONUS. The exceptions will be over AZ and far southern FL.
For AZ, midlevel moisture will stream northward ahead of the shortwave trough. Cool midlevel temperatures may yield a few thunderstorms during the day.
For southern FL, a northeast surface flow regime will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass, and the high PWAT environment should support a few thunderstorms moving southwestward across the area.
..Jewell.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the Atlantic Coast while an upper trough deepens over the Interior West and an upper ridge remains in place over the central U.S. on Monday. A cool and/or stable low-level airmass will remain in place over most of the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. However, the amplification of the western upper trough will promote low-level moisture return beneath cooling temperatures aloft over the Desert Southwest, increasing the chance for thunderstorms in this area. A thunderstorm or two may also occur over the far southern FL Peninsula, in tandem with the heating of some residual low-level moisture.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170747 SPC AC 170747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will gradually approach the Rockies into the middle of next week, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying modest low-level moisture return. As this occurs, cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft will overspread this low-level moisture, resulting in increased potential for thunderstorm development. There are some indications of enough buoyancy/shear overlap in the Desert Southwest to Great Plains states during the Days 5-7 (Wednesday-Friday) time frame to support an isolated severe threat. Calibrated AI/ML guidance supports this potential, with guidance trends showing gradually increasing probabilities. However, given anticipated low buoyancy, the severe threat still appears quite isolated and localized.
..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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