Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of coastal Southern California through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180054
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of coastal Southern California through tonight.
Discussion
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of Southern California this evening as mid-level flow increases with the approaching upper-level low. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue overnight, with potential for occasional stronger bands that may produce some instances of damaging wind. A low tornado risk was maintained with this outlook, owing to the strong deep layer flow progged to increase overnight.
High-based convection across far eastern Nebraska has showed signs of weakening over the last hour, with a downward trend in lightning. Guidance shows little in the way of additional development through the rest of the evening. The Marginal Risk across this region was removed with this outlook.
..Thornton.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171708
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, lower Ohio/mid-Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Synopsis
A pair of successive shortwave troughs are expected to progress north-northeastward on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The initial, weaker perturbation will move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorm potential will exist ahead of this feature within a warm advection regime in lower Michigan into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
Farther west, a more potent shortwave will move from the lower Colorado Valley/western Great Basin into the central Plains by Thursday morning. In its wake, general troughing will in the West. Cold temperatures aloft will foster potential for isolated thunderstorms along much of the West Coast. A few lightning flashes may also occur ahead of the progressing shortwave trough in the eastern Great Basin. However, ample cloud cover and cool/cold temperatures will keep such activity quite sparse.
A surface low will develop late in the period in the central High Plains and shift into eastern Kansas/western Missouri by Thursday morning. Mid-level ascent and warm/moist advection will gradually increase from the Mississippi/Ohio confluence into parts of the lower Ohio Valley. There is some signal from both global and regional CAM guidance for development very late in the period near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. Farther north and east, capping may prevail given more nebulous forcing. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of the activity in these regions.
..Wendt.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Synopsis
Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains.
Lower/middle Ohio Valley
Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is expected to be the focus for convective development during the afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening.
..Wendt.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 17
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, February 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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