Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120535
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will remain over the eastern two-thirds of the nation today, as a trough moves through the western states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast into the central Appalachians. A cold front will move southeastward through the north-central U.S., as a surface low moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible today near and ahead of the surface low across the Great Lakes, and further west within the post-frontal airmass in the northern Plains. Scattered storms will also form within southwest flow aloft, from parts of the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Storms will also be possible in the southern High Plains, across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain and in south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. today and tonight.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120517
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.
Synopsis
An upper low will progress through the Great Basin toward the central Rockies/Four Corners with a downstream belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds stretching from the southern Rockies through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Within that airstream, a short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, while a more subtle impulse translates from the southern Rockies into the Upper Midwest.
At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the Great Lakes into the Northeast with a trailing front stretching through the southern Great Lakes and southern IA into central or southwest KS, where it will link with a secondary surface low. Dryline will extend south from the KS low to along the TX-NM border by late afternoon or early evening.
### Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley
Level-2/Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities have been extended to the St. Joseph and Kansas City, MO vicinities in this forecast update to account for greater severe storm potential in a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space.
Southerly low-level winds will maintain a moist boundary layer within the warm sector with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low-mid 70s F. While midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, the moist environment coupled with daytime heating will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Slight height falls aloft combined with daytime heating and convergence along the surface boundaries are expected to eliminate remaining capping, yielding thunderstorm development by mid afternoon initially from the TX and OK Panhandles into central KS. Subsequent storm development is anticipated by late afternoon into evening farther northeast along the front into the lower-MO Valley. A more isolated wind and hail threat could spread into portions of southern IA and IL Tuesday evening and night. Finally, a separate round of strong to severe storms appears possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday over portions of southwest TX and the Permian Basin.
Within the level-2/Slight Risk area, vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells as the initial storm mode with large hail being the primary hazard, both along and to the north of the front. There is some model signal that the KS segment of the front may tend to surge south during the afternoon into evening, which would suggest the potential for a relatively quick transition to a more outflow-dominant storm mode and an associated damaging wind threat. Tornado potential will be conditional on supercell storm modes persisting into evening when the low-level jet and associated near-ground shear increase.
### New York
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday within a zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding the short-wave trough and surface low. Lingering clouds and areas of precipitation are likely to inhibit air mass destabilization, especially with eastward extent into the Hudson Valley. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to modest MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg by afternoon. On the condition that surface-based storms can develop and become sustained, the existence of a strongly sheared kinematic environment (particularly in the low levels) would favor supercells capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds. This forecast update will maintain level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities due to uncertainties in the extent of air mass destabilization.
..Mead.. 10/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.
### Day 4/Wednesday
At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.
Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
### Day 5/Thursday
Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.
### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday
A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.
..Mead.. 10/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 13
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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