Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201227
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley.
OK and TX
Southwesterly upper-level flow over the southern Great Plains will be downstream of an eastward-migrating upper trough moving into the central and southern High Plains by early evening. A frontal zone modulated by convection overnight over the eastern part of the TX Panhandle and OK will sag southward through tonight. A moist airmass will undergo appreciable heating amidst surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, resulting in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization is expected across OK, where a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail is expected to evolve during the afternoon into the early evening. The 20/00z HREF/REFS ensemble guidance showed agreement in delineating the strongest explicit 10-m wind gusts across parts of southern OK within a corridor characterized by very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Have introduced an intensity level-1 area where confidence in 60-80 mph gusts is greatest.
Central High Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains today. An easterly component to low-level flow north of the surface front will maintain a fetch of moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints), and this moisture combined with heating will enable moderate destabilization by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and convective inhibition erodes, scattered storms are forecast by mid-late afternoon. Model forecast soundings show straight hodographs with sizable CAPE in the -10 to -30 deg C layer. As a result, a few supercells are probable with the primary severe hazard being large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) along with isolated severe gusts. Some lingering severe risk may eventually develop over southeast CO late this evening and spread into the OK Panhandle overnight.
Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
A series of low-amplitude perturbations will move generally east across the Ozarks and OH Valley to the north of a weakened mid-level anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf Coast. A reservoir of seasonally rich low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s deg F surface dewpoints) will exist south a cold front that was analyzed near the I-70 corridor this morning. This frontal zone is forecast to gradually push southward during the period and serve as the northern delimiter of strong/severe thunderstorm activity.
As the boundary layer heats through the mid afternoon to the south of more extensive cloud cover with north extent, moderate buoyancy will likely develop. Some modest enhancement to mid-level flow will probably accompany the aforementioned convectively augmented mid-level features. Portions of eastern IL into IN could perhaps yield a slightly more favorable environment for severe storms due to hodograph structure. Yet, it remains uncertain whether some strengthening of low-level flow in vicinity of the effective frontal zone occurs later today. The 19/06z NAM differed substantially versus recent RAP model runs. Regardless, a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will probably evolve, posing mainly an isolated threat for wind damage.
..Smith/Mead.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
A few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200546
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
A few instances of damaging gusts are possible across the central and southern Appalachians to the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday).
Synopsis
Zonal flow will dominate the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Multiple mid-level low-amplitude impulses will traverse the central CONUS as a longer wave upper trough impinges on the CA coastline through the period. The progression of the aforementioned impulses will encourage the southward advancement of a surface cold front, from Texas to the central Appalachians. Given adequate moisture and associated instability ahead of the front, a few strong to severe storms are possible, especially over the central and southern Appalachians.
Central and southern Appalachians to the Lower MS Valley
By afternoon peak heating, surface dewpoints will reach the upper 60s to low 70s F, with little to no MLCINH given a mixed boundary layer. Across the central/southern Appalachians to the Southeast, thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front will have access to 1500-2000 J/kg of tall and thin MLCAPE. Given mediocre shear profiles, mainly pulse-cellular to multicellular complexes are expected, the stronger of which may produce wet downbursts capable of causing a few instances of tree/wire damage. The best chance for wind damage will be over the central/southern Appalachians, where a relatively greater number of storms may develop per latest high-resolution and ML/AI guidance consensus.
Portions of western Texas
Along the western flank of the cold front, a couple of thunderstorms may develop over western TX, amid a sufficiently moist low-level airmass to support strong thunderstorms. Mid-level lapse rates appear mediocre, and given weak upper support, no severe probabilities were introduced this outlook despite the presence of elongated hodographs. However, some guidance has hinted at locally stronger multicellular storms possible. If trends continue toward greater storm coverage, lower-end severe probabilities (mainly for marginally severe wind/hail) may be needed in future outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated wind damage may occur with the stronger storms across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Southeast on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated wind damage may occur with the stronger storms across portions of the southern Appalachians into the Southeast on Tuesday.
Synopsis
The upper-air pattern is poised to amplify some on Tuesday, with upper ridging building back into the Plains states as positively tilted upper troughs become established over the OH/TN Valleys and the Southwest. A surface cold front will continue to usher southward from TX to the Gulf coastal region through the day on Tuesday, encouraging thunderstorm development. 1500+ J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE, driven by mid 60s F surface dewpoints, will be present from the southern Appalachians to the Southeast. As such, the stronger storms in this area will be capable of producing a few wet downbursts, with isolated tree/wire damage possible.
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200823 SPC AC 200823
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. through the forecast period, with a meandering upper trough evolving into a cut-off upper low off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an upper trough amplifying over the Interior West late this week into next weekend. Through the week, a relatively dry low-level airmass will settle east of the MS River and west of the Rockies, limiting the severe threat over the western and eastern third of the U.S. Some modest moisture return is likely across the Plains given lee troughing. However, upper support will be weak, which should limit the severe threat across the central U.S. as well. As such, no organized severe threats seem apparent for the CONUS Days 4-8 (Wednesday-Sunday).
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 20
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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