Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast and southern Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300545
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast and southern Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
Severe storm potential is low over the CONUS today. A broad upper trough over the Midwest will shift eastward with shortwave ridging in its wake. A second shortwave trough will intensify over the southern Rockies as flow aloft becomes more zonal over the eastern half of the US. At the surface, low pressure over the Great Lakes will quickly lift northward into Canada as a strong cold front sweeps south toward the US Gulf/Atlantic Coasts. High pressure and an arctic air mass behind the front will keep much of the US hostile to thunderstorm development.
The only exception will be where modest instability can develop near the southeastern FL Peninsula, eastern Atlantic waters and the immediate Gulf Coast ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms that develop will be aided by modest mid-level southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone. These storms should move quickly offshore before midday as the front continues surging south. Residual buoyancy inland will become increasingly removed with time as high pressure and resulting offshore flow intensifies. Given the very weak instability and short residence time of onshore convection, severe weather is not expected.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow (Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300651
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow (Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air advection regime will become established across the Southeast, resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the 00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been introduced at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears very low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears very low.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the eastern U.S. as another upper trough develops across the Interior West on Day 3/ Tuesday. A surface low, positioned across the southeast U.S., is poised to quickly deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic through the Day 3 period. Strong warm-air advection along the eastern Seaboard will promote a continuous flux of moisture and associated buoyancy ahead of the upper trough. A broad rain shield with embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Southeast on Tuesday morning, and this band will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast through the day.
Some guidance hints at a brief overlap of surface based instability and strong vertical wind shear from a departing low-level jet across south-central/southeastern GA and immediate surrounding areas. If such a high shear/low CAPE corridor can develop, and a stronger thunderstorm tracks through this corridor, large, curved hodographs may support strong low-level rotation. Nonetheless, confidence in this scenario is too low for the delineation of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 7 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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