Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Monday, July 6

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 022000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES…WESTERN KANSAS…AND PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and early evening.

20Z Update

Much of the previous forecast remains generally on track, especially for portions of the central High Plains, the TN Valley, and northern New England.

However, appreciable uncertainty still exists regarding the potential for focused corridors of severe across much of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Relatively robust supercell evolution has occurred along mesoscale surface baroclinic boundaries, amid generally weak upper-level support, to support instances of 2-3 inch diameter hail over central/eastern SD, as well as instances of brief and modest rotation with storms over northeastern IA. Please see MCDs 1440-1441 for short-term details of convective evolution. However, these storms are moving roughly normal to boundary orientation, putting the duration of higher-end severe into question. At least for portions of the Upper Midwest though, there is a modest signal of an MCS traversing a baroclinic boundary along the WI/IL border for multiple hours. A locally greater concentration of damaging gusts could accompany this activity through the afternoon, though confidence in this scenario is not overly high either. Many of the ongoing storms (especially over SD) are occurring over portions of the open warm sector relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, casting uncertainty regarding the impacts the ongoing storms will have on later afternoon initiation and evolution along other mesoscale boundaries. As such, prudence was exercised in favor of making only minor changes to the outlook to reflect the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/

SD to WI

Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development, but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.

Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe wind/hail threat.

Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Western KS

Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

TN Valley/Southern Appalachians

A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms. However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening across the region.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Summary

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA

### SUMMARY

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

An upper high will remain over the Appalachians and Carolinas, with a somewhat weaker ridge aloft extending westward into the southern Rockies. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will generally stretch from the northern Plains and across much of the Great Lakes an Northeast, as modest mid and high level westerlies persist. In the low levels, substantial moisture and instability will persist across those same areas, as south to southwest surface winds maintain 70s F dewpoints around the northern periphery of a southeast U.S. surface high. An east-west oriented boundary will stretch from the northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes region, with various clusters of thunderstorms throughout the period within this unstable zone.

Northern/Central Plains

Any outflows from overnight convection are likely to mix, with strong instability developing. Cells will form over the northern High Plains initially with localized hail and wind. Larger coverage of storms will occur from southern SD into northern NE during the mid/late afternoon, with general upscale growth into one or more MCSs. However, supercells may occur initially with large hail and a brief tornado. Supporting a severe MCS will be ample precipitable water, strong instability, and an increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening. Additional isolated hail or wind may occur near the surface trough into western KS and toward the TX Panhandle where temperatures will be hot.

Much of the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and across NY, PA and NJ

The entire corridor stretching from northern IL/southern WI into NY and NJ will destabilize with daytime heating and robust moisture. Storms are most likely from WI/IL during the late afternoon, and also near the Lower Great Lakes, affecting OH, PA, NY. Modest westerlies aloft and the uncapped air mass across the area will support a few longer-lived clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Some of the activity may proceed into western New England into early evening.

TN Valley and northern GA

Within the weak easterly flow regime aloft, just south of the upper ridge, storms are expected to form during the afternoon with the very moist and unstable air mass. Mid 70s F dewpoints will again lead to strong instability, with multicell clusters moving west/northwest by mid/early afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible.

..Jewell.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Summary

Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains late.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021920

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS…AND FROM EASTERN OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR

### SUMMARY

Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains late.

Parts of the Mid Atlantic

Stronger mid to high level winds exist over the Northeast, though 30 kt at 500 mb will extend as far south as Maryland. A surface trough will deepen during the day near the I-90 corridor, where 70s F dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability. Storms may develop both within the instability plume from OH into PA, and within the heated surface trough from VA into PA/NJ. Strong wind gusts will be common, with some severe/damaging gusts likely late afternoon through early evening during peak heating.

Central High Plains

Scattered strong to severe storms may develop near the Front Range as surface winds back to easterly late in the day. This will bring moisture westward toward the higher terrain, with most models showing a few cells developing late afternoon with localized hail and wind potential. Good direction shear and steep lapse rates aloft will favor large hail. Storms may then persist into western NE and KS, with potential areas of severe wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 5	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020855 SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In the East, a shortwave trough will approach the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains. While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe potential could increase.

Mid-Atlantic

With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, July 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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