Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240057
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains tonight.
Central High Plains into the southern Plains
Three primary areas of thunderstorms currently exist across the region: southeast WY, east-central CO, and the TX South Plains vicinity. The northernmost cluster across southeast WY has struggled to maintain intensity, likely due to modest convective inhibition remaining in place. Even so, given the favorable low-level moisture downstream, there is still some chance for intensification. Environmental conditions support the potential for large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts with any storms that can mature into the more favorable buoyancy downstream.
Large to very large hail remains possible for at least the next several hours with the discrete, splitting storms across east-central CO. Strong outflow (greater than 50 kt) remains possible as well. Additional storm development appears likely in this area amid persistent low-level moisture advection and a strengthening low-level jet. These additional storms will have similar hazards, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. Hail from 2" to 3.5" in diameter is possible. Strong gusts could become more likely with time if cold pool amalgamation results in a forward-propagating cluster.
Several supercells continue across the TX South Plains. A strengthening low-level jet and steep mid-level lapse rates will help maintain the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts with these storms for at least the next several hours.
Arklatex and vicinity
Ongoing cluster moving through the Arklatex will likely continue southeastward tonight, with an attendant risk for isolated damaging gusts. Some hail is possible as well, particularly late tonight/early tomorrow with any warm-air advection storms that develop in the wake of this cluster.
..Mosier.. 06/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231742
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah.
Synopsis
Strengthening westerly flow aloft in association with a mid-level wave moving out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba will overspread the central Rockies on D2/Wednesday. A surface low will be located across northern Wisconsin drifting eastward with a cold front extending southward into the central high Plains. Lee cyclogenesis is progged late in the period across eastern Colorado/western Kansas in response to the increased westerly flow across the central Rockies.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to form across the high terrain in the central/southern High Plains before moving into the central/southern Plains by the evening. More isolated severe storms are possible near the surface low in Wisconsin, across portion of the Ozarks to Mississippi, and northern Utah.
Central/Southern High Plains into the Ozarks
Moderate instability will overlap strong deep layer shear within the upslope flow across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming Wednesday afternoon. This will support initial supercell modes with development into the afternoon. Easterly surface flow becoming westerly aloft will support veering wind profiles and low-level curvature of hodographs. Large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible before storms begin to cluster. Damaging wind potential will then increase as storms consolidate along outflow and spread eastwards. The Slight was shifted further eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle to account for this downstream potential.
Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi
Confidence in the evolution of overnight convection across portions of Oklahoma Tuesday night is decreasing. It remains possible that an MCS will be ongoing towards the beginning of the D2/Wednesday period shifting eastward into portions of Arkansas by day break. It is possible that should this occur, some re intensification could be ongoing across portions of eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. For now, a Marginal Risk was maintained across this area for potential for damaging winds pending further details on the evolution of convection overnight.
Upper Great Lakes
Filtered daytime heating through breaks in the clouds should allow for moderate instability to develop near the surface low across portions of the western Great Lakes. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
Northern Utah
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah during the day on Wednesday, with weak to moderate instability progged by the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which will support potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.
Synopsis
Embedded waves within a predominately zonal flow pattern and broad westerly flow aloft will extend across the central Rockies into the central/southern Plains on D3/Thursday. At the surface, a low will deepen and shift eastward across western Texas into eastern Oklahoma with attendant frontal boundary extending eastward across northern Oklahoma into the Missouri and Ohio Valley.
Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma as a shortwave trough rotates through the pattern. Afternoon thunderstorm development will focus along the residual outflow/frontal boundary. Guidance suggests that though residual cloud cover may remain behind the morning convection, strong heating/destabilization should occur near the two boundaries into the afternoon. Strong deep layer shear around 40-50 kts should support supercell modes with potential for large to very large hail and damaging wind. With the deepening of the surface low, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase to around 40-50 kts into the afternoon/evening, which will enlarge low-level hodographs and lead to increasing tornado potential. There remains some uncertainty in the exact axis and strength of the low-level jet at this time.
Central/Northern High Plains
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop with the combination of easterly upslope flow and upper-level forcing for ascent across portions of eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Moderate instability and strong deep layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Storms will eventually cluster and move eastward, with potential for a few instances of damaging wind into western NE/KS.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, June 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 27
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, June 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, June 27 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, June 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230847 SPC AC 230847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
D5/Saturday - Northern Plains
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.
D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern.
D7/Monday - Upper Midwest
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, June 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, June 25
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, June 27
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, June 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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