Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes will be possible.
Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon and evening.
RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30 knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex.
Central Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage threat.
Central and Southwest Texas
A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today. Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250534
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS…ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate that a remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation will tend to redevelop north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba during this period, within generally weakening larger-scale troughing extending along an axis inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the same time, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable strength, as a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within southwesterly flow which is likely to strengthen across the southern Rockies through central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night.
There appears a bit more disparity within guidance concerning when the stronger mid-level height falls associated with the primary impulse spread across the Rockies through the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high plains. It now appears that it may not be until early evening or later, but it does appear that this may be preceded by a more subtle perturbation across the same vicinity, perhaps as early as Sunday morning. The lead wave may be accompanied by one developing surface low within lee surface troughing across central Nebraska into the mid Missouri Valley, while the trailing wave supports the eastward migration of another surface cyclone out of southeastern Colorado into central Kansas late Sunday through 12Z Monday.
In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air, initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models suggest that warm advection, at least in lower/mid-levels, will strengthen and become focused in a corridor across north central through northeastern Kansas by late Sunday evening, near the nose of a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.
Central/Southern Great Plains
Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, has not offered much more in the way of clarity concerning convective potential for this period. Among other issues, the plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeastward through the southern and central Great Plains may prove inhibitive to the initiation of storms across much of the developing warm sector, while also contributing to moderate to strong potential instability. Potential for early day convection across western Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains may also impact later day severe weather potential.
Even so, guidance generally indicates that a cyclonically curved, 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak will nose across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region by early Sunday evening. This likely will contribute to strengthening convergence along a sharpening dryline, particularly across portions of western Kansas, where at least a narrow corridor of moderate boundary-layer destabilization probably will become supportive of supercell development. The potential for a couple of strong tornadoes probably will increase as cells propagate east-northeastward Sunday evening, in the presence of enlarging clockwise curved hodographs beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb). Tornadic potential probably will maximize during the mid to late evening, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one or more clusters, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across north central/northeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of the Great Plains.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 27
Outlook Summary
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA…A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN…MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI…ILLINOIS…WESTERN INDIANA…WESTERN KENTUCKY…WESTERN TENNESSEE…NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.
Discussion
Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region during this period, as a notable short wave perturbation and associated 50-70 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet streak progress northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley region. Beneath a plume of warm/capping elevated mixed-layer air nosing northeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley, low-level warm sector moistening is generally forecast to contribute to moderate to strong potential instability. Although the details of the potential convective evolution remain unclear, the environment appears likely to become supportive of organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells. Even if convection grows quickly upscale into one or more clusters/lines, embedded supercell structures will probably still pose potential for producing strong tornadoes. If an initially discrete supercell mode is maintained for a sustained period, tornadic potential could maximize, with a few long track, particularly damaging tornadoes possible.
At this time, it appears that strongest thunderstorm development may initially focus in forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of the initially capping elevated mixed-layer across parts of southeastern Iowa into central Illinois. Enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along this corridor, perhaps coinciding with a zone of stronger differential surface heating associated with a modifying outflow boundary, may become conducive to several strong tornadic supercells before convection tends to grow upscale while propagating southeastward into Monday evening.
A dryline structure extending southwestward through portions of eastern Missouri may also support initially discrete supercell development, before activity tends to grow upscale ahead of an advancing cold front while spreading into the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Monday evening.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 27 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, April 25
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, April 26
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, April 27
- ANY SEVERE: 45%
- Tuesday, April 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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