Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, November 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest, mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220457
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest, mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
Synopsis and Discussion
An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.
To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here, residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse rates do not appear to favor severe hail.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the primary threat.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220636
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the primary threat.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the central Plains on Sunday. Lee troughing is forecast along the High Plains during the day Sunday with a weak cyclone likely to develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Monday. A warm front will only slowly advance north across Texas during the day, but will advance north more aggressively after 00Z.
West Texas into north-central Texas
As the mid-level trough advances east on Sunday, a low-level jet will strengthen across Texas. This will lead to increasing isentropic ascent and thunderstorm coverage during the day. Moderate instability, paired with moderate shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates may result in an environment which supports isolated large hail from a few elevated supercells. However, stronger storm coverage may be somewhat limited during the day. Greater coverage is anticipated Sunday night as stronger height falls overspread the southern Plains. Isolated large hail will be the primary threat, but a few damaging wind gusts may be possible if storms grow upscale and move into the surface-based warm sector late in the period as it starts to move northward more quickly.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.
Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley
Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid rich low-level moisture.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220854 SPC AC 220854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - Southeast
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this time.
Day 5/Wed - East Coast
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front. Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.
High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather potential.
Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220854 SPC AC 220854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - Southeast
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this time.
Day 5/Wed - East Coast
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front. Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.
High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather potential.
Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220854 SPC AC 220854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - Southeast
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this time.
Day 5/Wed - East Coast
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front. Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.
High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather potential.
Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220854 SPC AC 220854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - Southeast
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this time.
Day 5/Wed - East Coast
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front. Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.
High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather potential.
Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220854 SPC AC 220854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Tue - Southeast
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this time.
Day 5/Wed - East Coast
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front. Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.
High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather potential.
Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, November 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, November 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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