Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140550

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon.

Synopsis

An upper wave is evident in recent water-vapor imagery across the southern Great Basin. This trough will translate east into the Plains through today, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. This will support slight deepening of a diffuse surface low analyzed over the central High Plains as it drifts east towards the lower MO River Valley. Ahead of the low, an expansive warm sector (characterized by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints) remains in place from the southern Plains northeastward into the upper MS Valley region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a composite outflow boundary/warm front from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL as well as along a dryline draped from eastern KS into OK and TX. Further east, a mid-level wave associated with ongoing convection over the Great Lakes will support re-intensification/re-development of strong/severe storms across the Northeast.

Midwest

An outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will likely be draped across the Midwest early this morning. This boundary is forecast to drift northward within a southerly flow regime as an effective warm front ahead of the approaching surface low and upper wave. Latest guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary.

Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to 2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential, including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time, easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours.

The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS. Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat.

Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas

Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into TX this afternoon. Consensus among latest HREF/REFS guidance is that initiation is most probable across northwest TX into central OK - possibly ahead of a subtle mid-level wave, though in reality the unfocused nature of the broad-scale ascent suggests that initiation will be possible anywhere along the dryline where low-level convergence can be maximized. Regardless, ample buoyancy within the warm sector (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE sampled in evening RAOBs) coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail (possibly exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Some tornado threat will likely materialize around and after 00 UTC as the nocturnal jet strengthens and enlarges low-level hodographs.

Northeast

A low-amplitude upper wave associated with an ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will migrate eastward towards the Northeast through the day. Residual convection associated with the MCS may linger through morning before re-intensifying by early afternoon as daytime heating supports steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE values (likely up to the 500-1000 J/kg range). While buoyancy will likely remain weak, 35-40 knot bulk shear through the CAPE-bearing layer and focused ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave will likely support organization of convective bands with an attendant threat for strong to severe winds.

..Moore/Wendt.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast.

MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity

Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection, MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection. However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening, upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and damaging winds will be possible.

Southern Plains

Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150 m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.

Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast

Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 14

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, April 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, April 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, April 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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