Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians. An isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts is also forecast over parts of the Texas South Plains later today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211956
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians. An isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts is also forecast over parts of the Texas South Plains later today.
20z Update
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update cycle as the forecast remains on track. See MCD #2323 and the discussion below for additional information.
..Chalmers/Wendt.. 09/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026/
Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians
Recent radar and satellite imagery reveals a trio of MCVs over the OH Valley, with perhaps another MCV farther southwest in the Mid-South vicinity. These vorticity maxima are north/west of an arcing cold front that extends from southern VA west-northwest into northern KY and then back southwestward through northern AR and central OK into the TX South Plains. A moist airmass persists south of this boundary, with dewpoints in the low 70s across much of Southeast, TN Valley, and Carolinas. The front is forecast to slowly shift southward today, interacting with the moist, diurnally destabilized, and moderately buoyant airmass to support scattered thunderstorms. Vertical shear will be weak, and largely multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Even so, ample moisture is in place (i.e. PW values over 2” sampled on the 12Z BMX sounding), and sporadic stronger downdrafts may yield a strong to locally severe gusts (50 to 60 mph). Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected from southeast TN and northwest GA through northern AL into central/southern MS and eastern LA.
TX South Plains into north-central/northeast TX
Western periphery of the front described in the previous section intersects a weak low over far southeast NM. A moist airmass exists along and south of this boundary, with dewpoints ranging from the low 60s over the TX South Plains to the low 70s across much of central and eastern TX. Easterly flow will help maintain this moisture amid strong heating over the TX South Plain vicinity, contributing to airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front (and/or residual outflow) and near the surface low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be modest, but any stronger, more persistent thunderstorms may yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts before dissipating during the evening.
A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage appears likely over northeast TX this afternoon/evening. Here, differential heating and/or outflow from ongoing thunderstorms could result in an area of increased low-level convergence within a warm, moist, and moderately unstable airmass this afternoon. Isolated water-loaded downbursts capable of producing damaging wind gusts are possible. Anticipated limited severe coverage precludes introducing low wind probabilities in this area.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Southeast on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211655
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Southeast on Tuesday.
Southeast
A weak mid/upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Midwest on Tuesday, bringing modest westerly flow aloft across portions of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will sink southward across the Lower MS and TN Valleys into the Carolinas. Mid 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front, promoting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid stronger heating from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Midlevel lapse rates and effective shear magnitudes will remain weak, but where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates amid 1.75-2 inch PW values are expected. This could support sporadic strong wind gusts within wet microbursts. Overall, severe potential should remain limited.
..Leitman.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211854
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Synopsis
Surface high pressure will become established across much of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. A surface cold front will move across the Gulf Coast and Southeast states. Isolated thunderstorms may develop with the moist airmass ahead of the front across part of the Southeast. Further west, surface lee troughing across western portions of the Plains will aid modest northward moisture transport and isolated thunderstorms could occur across this area as well. Overall, severe potential will be limited by a lack of stronger forcing for ascent, modest instability, and weak vertical shear.
..Leitman.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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