Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Summary
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 202001
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this afternoon.
20z Update
The Marginal Risk across North Carolina was removed with this update. Convection is moving offshore this hour, with minimal development expected through the rest of the afternoon.
See previous discussion for more information on potential for thunderstorm development overnight across MS/AL/GA.
..Thornton.. 02/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/
Synopsis and Discussion
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.
Carolinas into the Southeast
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary wedge front.
Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place, supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts. However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking remains that the potential for severe storms should remain low/conditional.
Northwest PA and Southwestern NY
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively aided gusts are possible.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday and Saturday night. A few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHERN CAROLINAS.
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states Saturday and Saturday night. A few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible.
Discussion
An initially low-amplitude zonal flow regime over the CONUS is forecast to amplify considerably as a shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley deepens while moving into the Southeast. A stalled frontal boundary will be in place from southern North Carolina southwestward toward the northern Gulf Coast. A surface low will develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in response to the amplifying mid-level trough before moving quickly out to sea by Sunday morning. Sufficient moisture and ascent will likely support widely scattered thunderstorms with some potential for damaging gusts and a brief tornado over parts of the Southeast and southern Carolinas Saturday and Saturday night.
Northeastern Gulf Coast States and the southern Carolinas
Early morning elevated storms should gradually become surface-based as they track east/southeastward ahead of a subtle wave low along the front. South of the front, modest diurnal heating amid mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Driven mostly by low-level warm air advection, mid-level lapse rates will remain generally poor (~6.5 C/km) which in combination with the lagged primary upper forcing may tend to limit initial updraft intensity.
As the upper trough amplifies, the low will gradually deepen, potentially serving as a local focus for more sustained convection in southern GA and far southern SC. Long straight hodographs largely parallel to the frontal zone could allow a few more organized line/clusters Saturday afternoon/evening. Given the strong deep-layer shear and some buoyancy from heating, damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible. Forecast guidance shows a few stronger storms in this region through Saturday evening. Should coverage and overall intensity increase, higher wind probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
Farther west, the surging front will likely undercut convection across the western flank of the warm sector as the surface low deepens. However, stronger heating and relatively larger buoyancy suggests isolated strong gusts remain possible with any stronger storms able to persist. Convection should gradually diminish as it moves southeastward toward the Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle into early Sunday.
..Lyons.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Discussion
Mid-level flow will amplify Sunday as a trough deepens over the far Southeastern US states and Atlantic Coast. An associated surface low will move off the NC coast and deepen rapidly. This will drive a cold front southward across the FL Peninsula early Sunday morning. Modest moisture advection ahead of the front could support a few thunderstorms through midday Sunday. Additional storms are possible along the sea breeze in south FL. However, drying/warming mid-levels and large-scale subsidence south of the deepening trough should temper the overall convective intensity such that no severe weather is expected.
Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.
Additionally, very isolated lightning is possible off the Pacific Coast of WA and northern OR. Strong ascent and some moisture advection increase with the next upper-trough. However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation.
..Lyons.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.
The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.
The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.
The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.
The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.
The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, February 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, February 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game