Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231152
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight.
..Hart.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, January 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230626
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday.
Synopsis
An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS, allowing warming aloft.
High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle.
Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold, but little instability is forecast to support any convection/lightning.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 25
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230627
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday.
Synopsis
On Saturday, an upper trough over the West will become detached from the larger-scale upper trough over Canada, with an upper low moving south into central CA by Sunday morning. To the east, mostly westerly flow aloft will exist across much of the central and eastern, with a surface high over the Southeast.
Southerly surface winds will bring moisture northward toward the TX Coast overnight, with elevated instability developing as far east as LA. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop late over eastern TX and toward the Sabine Valley within the warm advection regime. Low-level shear near this warm frontal zone will likely remain ineffective as far as severe weather potential given the relatively poor lapse rates. However, deepening moisture through 700 mb will likely lead to general thunderstorms in those areas.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230817 SPC AC 230817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north.
Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230817 SPC AC 230817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north.
Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230817 SPC AC 230817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north.
Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230817 SPC AC 230817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north.
Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230817 SPC AC 230817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north.
Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.
..Jewell.. 01/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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