Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290058
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening from parts of southeast Minnesota into western and northern Wisconsin.
Wisconsin/Far Southeast Minnesota
On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is currently moving through the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 1009 mb low is analyzed across far northern Wisconsin with a cold front extending southwestward into the mid Missouri Valley. A southwest-to-northeast corridor of low-level moisture is located ahead of the front, along which surface dewpoints are in the 50s to near 60 F. Near this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will continue to be favorable for convective development this evening. The low-level jet combined with 60 to 70 knots of mid-level west-southwesterly flow is creating strong deep-layer shear, which will support a localized severe threat early this evening. Cells that exhibit rotation could be capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. However, the mode has transitioned to mostly linear suggesting that any threat will be marginal early this evening…see MCD 2417.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Some suppression of upper-level ridging can be expected across the southern Plains as a shortwave trough moves out of the Southwest/northern Mexico. Within the northern Rockies, the upper-level ridge will amplify ahead of a Northwest upper trough. Modest mid-level height rises will also extend into the central Plains. A cold front will progress through the lower Great Lakes region and parts of the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow at low levels will persist in the southern/central Plains. A modest warm front may make northward progress within the lower Missouri Valley region late Thursday into Friday morning.
Convection is likely within the Southwest as the shortwave trough evolves and moves northeastward. Storms will increase in coverage northeastward as low-level warm advection develops during the evening/overnight. Weak lapse rates, modest buoyancy, and weak shear should minimize severe potential with this activity. Additional thunderstorms are expected within the lower Missouri Valley late Thursday into Friday morning. Shear will be slightly stronger than areas to the southwest. Even so, mid-level lapse rates and elevated buoyancy will be marginal. Small hail is possible with the strongest storms, but severe potential still appears low.
..Wendt.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
Synopsis
As upper-level ridging increases within the northern Plains, a shortwave trough in the Southwest will evolve into a nebulous trough within the southern/central Plains. Stronger mid-level flow will arrive within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity towards late afternoon into the evening as a shortwave trough approaches the Baja Peninsula.
A broad swath of convection/precipitation is expected in association with the shortwave trough and warm-advection within the Missouri Valley vicinity. Poor lapse rates and limited buoyancy should limit the intensity of this activity. Additional storms are possible during the mid/late afternoon in the lower Colorado Valley into parts of southern/central Arizona. Cooler temperatures aloft will support modest buoyancy (500 to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While a strong storm or two could produce small hail, shear will remain limited during the afternoon and should keep severe risk low.
..Wendt.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280743 SPC AC 280743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed – Central CONUS
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to deepen across the western U.S. on Days 4-5/Sat-Sun. Thereafter, an upper level cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners or Great Basin region and slowly progress eastward across the southern/central Plains Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this occurs, deepening surface cyclogenesis is forecast across the Plains, and a cold front will shift slowly eastward through mid-week. Some low severe potential could develop across the central/southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley given increasing low-level moisture ahead of the surface low/cold front, in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer flow. However, large spread exists among medium-ranging guidance with regards to the evolution of this system (ECMWF suite much less progressive compared to GFS suite). Furthermore, calibrated and ML/AI guidance does not show a robust signal for severe potential at Days 6-8. Still, trends bear watching over the coming days.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 28
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, October 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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