Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Rockies.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230521

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Rockies.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough over the central Rockies late this evening is forecast to progress slowly into the central High Plains by Thursday afternoon, within the northeast periphery of a strengthening mid/upper-level high over the southern Rockies. Downstream from those developments, a short-wave trough will translate through New England with a trailing vorticity ribbon and associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to advance from just off the southwest LA coast to the middle TX coast by Thursday evening.

At the surface, a stationary front currently extending from the CO Front Range through the OK and TX Panhandles into the Red River Valley is forecast to drift north through portions of western KS on Thursday immediately ahead of a thermal low/lee cyclone over southeast CO and southwest KS. A dryline will extend south from the surface low-front triple point into the central or eastern OK and TX Panhandles by mid- to late afternoon.

### Central and southern High Plains

Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast in the vicinity of the surface front and dryline Thursday afternoon with temperatures in the mid 90s to around 105. The hot temperatures will combine with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a narrow axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough is expected to contribute to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the thermal low in southeast CO to along the front and dryline from northeast CO into the OK and TX Panhandles.

Forecast soundings along the front indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail. In contrast, the storms forming in the hot, deeply mixed air mass west of the boundary are more likely to produce sporadic severe wind gusts. A corridor of potentially more concentrated severe wind gusts may materialize across portions of southwest KS by evening, where a number of the 00z CAMs indicate the evolution of an organized cold pool.

### Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas

A channel of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to precede Bertha atop a hot and moist boundary layer, with moderate instability developing by afternoon along the middle TX coast. Similar to Wednesday, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon within an environment characterized by 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PW content. As such, the potential will exist for locally damaging downburst winds as storms spread southwest along the coast into Deep South TX during the afternoon and evening hours.

### Columbia Basin into northern Rockies

Mid/upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen across the area on Thursday in tandem with a subtle disturbance moving through portions of OR and WA. Daytime heating along favored terrain in conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

### Eastern Carolinas

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday along a west-to-east-oriented front in NC. Breaks in the clouds south of the early-day storms will combine with a moist boundary layer to yield an axis of moderate instability by afternoon across portions of southeast NC into far eastern SC. A corridor of more concentrated thunderstorm development is possible in that area, near the intersection of the outflow from the morning storms with the sea-breeze boundary. Modest deep-layer shear will coincide with steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW content to yield locally intense wet microbursts capable of damaging winds.

..Mead/Weinman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230521

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Dakotas into northern MN

Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region Friday afternoon into early Saturday in response to a shortwave upper trough moving across Manitoba/western Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will develop south/southeast across parts of north Dakota and northern MN.

South/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front will transport modest boundary layer moisture northward across parts of ND/SD and northern/central MN. This will occur on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge building over the Rockies/High Plains. As a result of upper ridging, warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer may result in at least weak capping over portions of the region. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).

Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed with height, will result in supercell wind profiles. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer, with steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Organized cells are expected to develop by late afternoon near the surface boundary and spread east/southeast with time through the evening. A low-level jet is also forecast to increase during the evening/nighttime hours. The main risk with these storms will be from large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. If storms can become surface-based, a tornado or two also could occur. The strengthening low-level jet could maintain elevated convection into the nighttime hours across northern MN, but instability weakens an inhibition increases with south and east extent across the Upper MS Valley. This should keep severe potential relatively confined within a narrow corridor across portions of the Dakotas into northern MN.

SC vicinity

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon within a moderately unstable and very moist airmass. Vertically veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will provide around 25 kt effective shear as a surface boundary sags south and east across the region. This may be sufficient for a couple of organized clusters capable of producing sporadic wind damage.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited on Saturday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230630

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited on Saturday.

Northern High Plains to Upper Midwest

An amplified upper ridge will remain centered over the High Plains on Saturday. Moderately enhanced west to northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the region near the crest of the ridge and into the Upper MS Valley. Forecast guidance depicts one or more shortwave impulses rounding the ridge from eastern MT into the Dakotas, and possibly parts of the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings indicate capping across the Upper Midwest, which may limit thunderstorm potential despite a moistening boundary layer with time.

Further west across eastern MT into the western Dakotas, low-level moisture will be limited. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak destabilization as strong heating occurs during the day. Deep boundary layer mixing is forecast, and isolated to scattered high-based convection could develop within the weakly unstable airmass. Some potential for strong gusts will accompany this activity, but it is unclear if sufficient instability and moisture will exist to support severe wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 23

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 24

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 25

ANY SEVERE: low

Sunday, July 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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