Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
20Z Update
### OH Valley into the Mid-South
Recent surface analysis places a low just east of Lake Erie, with an associated cold front extending southwestward from this low through northwest OH, central IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. This cold front will continue to push southeastward through the evening and overnight. Mid 50s dewpoints now reach into central KY, which is likely near the northern extent of these higher dewpoints. Even so, this could be just enough low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy just ahead of the front from central KY into central WV, where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight along and ahead of the front in the Mid-South vicinity. Here, overlap between modest low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and cooling mid-level temperatures will support limited buoyancy.
As mentioned in the previous outlook, an isolated strong wind gust or two is possible in both of these areas, but the overall threat of severe storms remains low.
TX Trans-Pecos
A few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the TX Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau amid continued forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico. Severe hazards are not expected.
CA
Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated this evening through tonight, mostly after 00Z, as a compact but strong shortwave trough moves into central CA. Gusty winds are possible within the primary frontal band, but organized severe weather is not expected.
..Mosier.. 02/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/
OH Valley
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR…mainly after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, the threat of severe storms appears low.
CA
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line, but organized severe weather is not anticipated.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101659
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
Discussion
An upper-level low will move from the eastern Pacific to the Great Basin on Wednesday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability will develop from central California to the Great Basin with scattered thunderstorm activity likely. The weak instability and shear will preclude any severe weather potential.
East of the Rockies, high pressure and cool/dry air will limit overall thunderstorm potential.
..Bentley.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Discussion
A mid-level ridge will build across the southwest into the southern Plains on Thursday. To the northeast of this ridge, surface high pressure will build across the Midwest. The combination of these stabilizing factors, in addition to low-level moisture mostly suppressed into the Gulf, will limit the thunderstorm threat on Thursday.
..Bentley.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 17 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, February 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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