Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across parts of the western Dakotas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231622
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across parts of the western Dakotas.
Western Dakotas
Recent surface analysis placed a low over far southeast MT, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the High Plains into far West TX. A plume of moderate low-level moisture exists just east of this troughing, with upper 50s dewpoints currently reaching into southwest SD and mid 50s into western ND. This lee trough will help facilitate the maintenance of this moisture plume as the shortwave trough currently moving through WY and eastern MT continues northeastward into the region today and tonight.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop as convective inhibition erodes in the vicinity of the lee trough and the Black Hills this afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will result in moderate deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt from 0-6 km) amid 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This shear may aid in some storm organization potential, with the stronger thunderstorms perhaps yielding an isolated risk for marginally severe hail/gusts through early evening.
Southern Appalachians
Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus across both the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and farther east over much of the TN Valley. There is corridor between these regions from roughly northwest GA across far eastern TN/far western NC into far western VA where less low-level cloud cover is in place, replaced by more vertically developed structures. Temperatures in this region range from the upper 70s across northwest GA to the upper 60s/low 70s across far western VA. There is also slightly greater low-level moisture in this region (i.e. low 70s dewpoints), and these thermodynamic conditions are supporting modest buoyancy. This buoyancy explains the deeper clouds and recent lightning that has been observed in eastern TN. Thunderstorm activity will likely persist in this region throughout the day, supported by large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough and mesoscale convergence on an inverted surface trough that extends from southern AL into the southern KY/VA border vicinity. Some increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the shortwave moves through, but modest buoyancy and a mostly cluster multicellular mode should keep severe potential low. As such, removed the 5% wind probabilities across the region.
..Mosier/Gleason.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on tomorrow (Thursday).High
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on tomorrow (Thursday).High
Synopsis
An upper trough will impinge on the Pacific Northwest while upper ridging persists over the Plains states and another upper trough meanders off of the Atlantic Coast tomorrow (Thursday). An embedded mid-level impulse will progress northeast from the Southwest to the central Rockies, promoting enough deep-layer ascent to support a wide swath of showers and scattered thunderstorms across portions of the Interior West to the central Plains. Seasonable low-level moisture with modestly cooler temperatures aloft may promote an instance of hail or strong wind gusts across the Southwest to the central and southern High Plains. However, an appreciable overlap of deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be lacking overall, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230709
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge will flatten across the central U.S. as a mid-level trough progresses eastward across the northwestern CONUS, resulting in the ejection of multiple preceding mid-level impulses into the Plains states on Friday. One impulse will encourage surface lee trough strengthening over the southern High Plains, along with enough deep-layer ascent to encourage widespread shower and thunderstorm development. While a strong gust or sparse instance of hail cannot be ruled out, modest vertical wind shear and poor tropospheric lapse rates should limit the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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