Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220521
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
Discussion
Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse.
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220633
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
California
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale trough will likely reach the central and northern CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. A surface low will develop and migrate northeast reaching the OR-CA border by early Wednesday morning. Flow will increase during the period as a 100-kt 500-mb jet impinges on the central coastal areas of CA. Yet, only scant instability is currently progged. This meager buoyancy will generally focus near the coast but sporadic pockets will probably develop farther inland over the central valleys late Tuesday night. Low-topped convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage coincident with increased forcing for ascent and instability. Given the dearth of buoyancy forecast, will preclude the introduction of low-severe probabilities.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Lower 48.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.
California
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific and upper ridge over the Great Plains will maintain a belt of strong to intense cyclonic flow across CA north-northeastward into the Interior West. A lead shortwave trough will move from the OR/CA border northward into WA during the day, while an upstream disturbance moves from the eastern Pacific northeastward into central and northern CA after dark. A prolonged period of scattered showers and episodic periods of isolated thunderstorms are forecast across CA on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (-20 to -24 deg C at 500 mb) will aid in the development of weak instability during the afternoon across portions of the central valley. Elongated hodographs coupled with the potential for a short-duration period of modest surface-based destabilization could yield an isolated risk for a couple of weakly rotating storms. A risk for localized squalls moving inland near the immediate coast from parts of southern into central CA may focus primarily late Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of the approaching disturbance.
Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the CONUS.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.
..Smith.. 12/22/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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