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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches) and severe winds may occur over parts of the central Plains into the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds also remain possible with scattered to numerous thunderstorms across portions of the Carolinas and northern Gulf Coast states.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 212000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…MIDWEST…LOWER MS VALLEY…AND CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches) and severe winds may occur over parts of the central Plains into the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds also remain possible with scattered to numerous thunderstorms across portions of the Carolinas and northern Gulf Coast states.

20z Update

### Lower MS Valley and Carolinas

The forecast generally remains on track with only a minor eastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities in southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle. Modestly stronger low-to-mid level flow (evident in the MOB VWP) and favorable thermodynamic profiles (steep low-level lapse rates and high PW) should support stronger downbursts and scattered damaging wind gusts, similar to areas farther east. See Mesoscale Discussion #2069 for additional short-term details.

Midwest

The Level 1/Marginal risk and Level 2/Slight risk areas were expanded slightly northwestward based on observed convective development ongoing across as of 1945 UTC across southwestern Wisconsin. Some consideration was given to adding a targeted 5% tornado probability area along the remnant outflow boundary extending from southeast of Rockford, IL, into southwestern Wisconsin; however, uncertainty regarding the longevity of a supercellular storm mode (owing to the potential for cell mergers/interactions) and the presence of only modest low-level hodograph curvature/SRH precludes a 5% area at this time. See Mesoscale Discussion #2070 for additional short-term details.

Central Plains

Latest high-res guidance has poorly captured the evolution of morning and ongoing convection across portions of central and eastern Nebraska through early this afternoon, which lends uncertainty to the evolution of the severe threat through the rest of the period. Given the continued potential for ongoing convection to intensify and/or for additional redevelopment through the evening, however, severe probabilities have been maintained with only minor expansions made to the CIG1 wind and hail areas.

Northern Great Basin into the Snake Valley

Convective development is ongoing across portions of central/eastern Nevada, with thunderstorms forecast to evolve northward through the afternoon. The 5% wind probabilities and CIG1 area were expanded westward and northward based on the placement of ongoing thunderstorm activity and the latest HRRR/RRFS runs.

..Chalmers/Moore.. 08/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026/

Central Plains into the Midwest

A northwest flow regime will result in a weakly forced and in a limited confidence severe setup across the central Plains. Ongoing widely scattered storm activity may persist and reinvigorate during the afternoon, or new development occurs along residual outflow as the airmass becomes moderately to strongly unstable. Forecast sounding profiles show moist low levels beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates amid veering and strengthening flow with height. Large hail (some 2+ inches) would be a threat with any sustained supercells along with severe gusts (60-75 mph). If a small cluster can eventually develop, the severe-wind hazard would likely focus with these potential storms.

A small west to east oriented band of storms is moving south across southern WI to the east of a weak surface low and immediately downstream of an associated mid-level perturbation. While effective bulk shear is forecast to remain fairly modest (around 20-30 kt), a mix of multicells and marginal supercells is expected to develop later this afternoon across parts of southern WI into northern/central IL along and ahead of a weak front. Severe hail may occur with any persistent cells, while the threat for damaging winds should increase as small clusters form and spread east-southeastward through the early evening. While low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, sufficient veering with height through low/mid levels should exist to support modest low-level hodograph curvature and some risk for a brief tornado.

Carolinas

Weakened shower/thunderstorm activity associated with an MCV over the western Carolinas will likely dissipate during the early afternoon. However, renewed storm development is forecast in proximity to this upper disturbance, as well as near residual outflow from the earlier convection and a surface cool front draped from the GA/SC Piedmont northeastward into the coastal plain of eastern NC. Strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in strong instability by mid afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear for some organized multicell potential will be greatest near the upper-level feature. Farther southeast near the SC Low Country, weaker flow will result in a pulse thunderstorm mode. Scattered damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms through the early evening before nocturnal stability weakens storms and ends the severe threat.

North TX east into northern Gulf Coast states

Antecedent outflow from overnight storm clusters over the lower MS Valley and AL will serve as a focus for storm development this afternoon. Farther west, a more pronounced decaying MCS and associated southward-moving MCV over east-central OK will also focus storm activity across east TX into western LA. The 12 UTC Little Rock raob showed a belt of enhanced flow around the 4-5 km layer (35-40 kt). Other than a localized corridor where moderate northerly flow will overspread a strongly destabilizing boundary layer, slightly weaker northerly to northeasterly flow will encompass this larger region from north TX to Mobile Bay. Nonetheless, the development of very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (9 deg C/km) by early to mid afternoon and high PW (1.75-2.0 inches) will support scattered wind damage with the more intense downdrafts (most likely and concentrated from east TX through southern MS).

Northern Great Basin into the Snake Valley

A mid-level vorticity max rotating northward around the western periphery of the Four Corners upper high, will move into northern NV/UT by late afternoon. Deep inverted-V profiles will develop by mid afternoon with a dry sub-cloud layer featuring large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. A linear cluster of storms is expected to evolve and move north across the NV/UT/ID vicinity during the late afternoon and early evening. Evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of severe gusts 60-75 mph.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong storms may impact a corridor from near the northern Rockies into the southeastern Great Plains, as well as the middle and upper Ohio Valley vicinity, Saturday. These may pose at least some potential to produce severe wind and hail.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211726

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES…THE FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS…THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS…MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ADJACENT LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong storms may impact a corridor from near the northern Rockies into the southeastern Great Plains, as well as the middle and upper Ohio Valley vicinity, Saturday. These may pose at least some potential to produce severe wind and hail.

Discussion

Models indicate that the increasingly deformed remnants of a mid-level low will be forced inland across the northern U.S. Pacific coast during this period, with a still vigorous remnant perturbation approaching the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late Saturday night. Downstream, the center of a prominent mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly shift across and east of the southern Rockies, with amplified ridging within the westerlies to the north overspreading much the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains.

To the east of this ridging, it appears that large-scale troughing will undergo further amplification across areas east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, guidance indicates that one vigorous short wave impulse will dig southeast of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley by late Saturday night, trailed by a similar strength impulse across northwestern Ontario toward the northern Great Lakes vicinity. These are likely to be preceded by at least a couple of increasingly sheared perturbations, including one generally forecast to accelerate northeastward offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast early in the period.

Near the southwestern flank of the larger-scale troughing, a convectively generated or augmented perturbation might maintain strength within modest north-northwesterly flow, around the eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging, across the southeastern Great Plains toward northwestern Gulf coast.

In lower-levels, it appears that the leading edge of a series of surges of cooler air, probably reinforced by convective outflow across at least portions of the Great Plains, may reach central Texas and northern portions of the remainder of the Gulf Coast into southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Sunday. This is expected in the wake of a modestly deepening surface low to the north of the lower Great Lakes, and a weaker secondary low developing near/offshore of the Mid Atlantic.

Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region

In advance of the vigorous lead digging short wave trough, and an associated influx of surface cooling, a corridor of low-level moistening may contribute to potential for moderate boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It appears that this will have to occur in the wake of early period warm advection driven convective cloud cover and precipitation likely to overspread the region. However, breaks in the cloud cover and the onset of cooling aloft may become sufficient to support scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Despite generally modest to weak vertical shear, modest steepening of lower into mid-level lapse rates of temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature may be sufficient to contribute to profiles conducive to localized downbursts, in addition to marginally severe hail.

Front Range into southeastern Great Plains

Latest convection-allowing guidance and other model output remains rather varied concerning the potential evolution of storms and the associated risk for severe weather through this period. However, there do appear at least a couple of corridors with a somewhat higher likelihood for thunderstorm initiation and organization Saturday through Saturday night.

One may develop on the eastern periphery of the mid-level high across the southeastern Great Plains, where stronger lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may focus near the nose of an increasingly suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air. Wind fields/vertical shear may be modest to weak, but a corridor of higher low-level moisture content may support storm inflow with large CAPE ahead of a remnant convective perturbation, supporting potential for the evolution of an intensifying and organizing south/southwestward propagating storm cluster with risk for severe hail and wind.

Another may focus in moistening upslope flow along/east of the Laramie mountains through Colorado Front Range by late Saturday afternoon. Perhaps aided by a weak short wave impulse slowly pivoting across this region, around the periphery of the mid-level high, convection may consolidate into an intensifying and organizing cluster propagating into the adjacent Great Plains by Saturday evening, aided by updraft inflow of air characterized by moderately large CAPE.

Eastern Idaho into western Montana

Multiple waves of scattered thunderstorm development appear possible across the region Saturday into Saturday night, ahead of the inland advancing short wave trough. In the wake of an initial round of overnight/early period convection, models suggest that boundary layer moistening will be sufficient to support increasing, though still rather modest to weak, CAPE with heating and deep mixing by late Saturday afternoon. Still, thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to a few localized downbursts into Saturday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies and Great Plains, and across parts of the Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

Discussion

Models indicate that prominent mid/upper ridging centered across the southern Rockies through southern Great Plains will be maintained through this period. However, initially amplified ridging extending through the westerlies to the north of this feature is likely to become suppressed by a notable mid-level short wave trough, slowly progressing east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies through the southern Canadian Prairies and adjacent international border vicinity.

Downstream, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to only make very slow eastward progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard/western Atlantic vicinity, while an evolving embedded low slowly shifts eastward near/north of the lower Great Lakes region, in response to at least a couple of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around it.

In lower-levels, the primary surface cyclone is forecast to migrate northward toward James Bay, with a weaker secondary low perhaps migrating inland across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England, before weakening further. It appears that the composite leading edge of cooler low-level air trailing this feature, will stall and weaken across parts of the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast into southern Mid Atlantic.

Central and eastern Montana

There remains a signal in latest model output that forcing for ascent within the base of the progressive short wave trough will support increasing thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of central Montana by late afternoon. Coincident with strengthening westerly mid-level flow to 30-40+ kt, and the evolution of a strongly heated and fairy deeply mixed downstream boundary-layer (with at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), there appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster into early evening. If this occurs, the environment appears conducive to an accompanying swath of strong to severe gusts across parts of central into eastern Montana by late Sunday evening.

Dakotas

Forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of the progressive short wave trough may become increasingly conducive to upscale growing thunderstorm development from the west/central Dakotas state border through central/eastern South Dakota Sunday evening into Sunday night. Aided by inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, there appears potential for activity to become organized with potential to produce a swath or two of strong to severe gusts. The 21/12Z NAM, in particular, generates a fairly notable convective perturbation in association with this development. If this signal becomes supported by more model output in later runs, severe probabilities may need to be upgraded further.

Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England

Forcing for ascent aided by an initial short wave impulse pivoting around the southeastern through eastern periphery of the Great Lakes mid-level low probably will provide support for increasing thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New York and Pennsylvania into southern New England during the day Sunday. Inland destabilization and vertical shear across this region remains a bit uncertain, but it possible the environment could become supportive of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 24

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, August 21

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, August 22

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, August 23

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, August 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, August 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, August 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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