Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today across parts of northern New York and northern New England. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140556

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today across parts of northern New York and northern New England. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains.

Northeast

At mid-levels today, a fast-moving shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move southeastward across southeastern Canada. At the surface, very moist air with surface dewpoints in the 70s F will be in place over much of the Northeast. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. By afternoon, an axis of low-level convergence is forecast to develop along a pre-frontal trough, from near Lake Ontario northeastward into far southern Quebec. This zone will be a focus for convective initiation this afternoon. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form near the surface trough and move southeastward into northern New York and northern New England.

As the mid-level jet approaches from the northwest, the entrance region of jet will enhance lift and deep-layer shear across much of the Northeast. By late this afternoon, RAP forecast soundings over northern New England have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. The environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments possible. 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak near 7 C/km, which will support a threat for severe wind gusts, especially with intense line segments. A few severe gusts above 70 mph may occur. The potential for large hail and tornadoes will be most likely with supercells. The threat for supercells will be greatest from northern New York into northern Vermont and northwest Maine, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. Within this corridor, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting potential for a strong tornado.

Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains

At mid-levels today, flow will be southwesterly across the northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be in place from the northern High Plains to the Rockies. Surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F along an east-to-west moist axis, which is forecast across eastern and central Montana. As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of instability will develop near the moist axis. Thunderstorm formation will be possible along this east-to-west zone and in the higher terrain of western and central Montana. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings in central Montana have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/14/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Summary

The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140542

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on Wednesday.

Synopsis

A broad mid-level ridge across the central United States will take on an increasingly negative tilt on Wednesday, with the elongated highest heights within the ridge found from the eastern Dakotas southeast into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This will occur in large part due to an eastern Pacific closed low building the ridge axis northward into western Canada, a strong shortwave trough impinging upon the northeast periphery of the ridge, and a closed mid-level low undercutting southern portions of the ridge as it begins to be drawn northwestward toward the main belt of westerlies.

At the surface, generally hot conditions will be maintained across most of the CONUS – the exception largely being northern New England. A moist airmass will remain entrenched across much of the eastern US, with a southward advancing surface boundary across the Northeast serving to delineate the warm, moist airmass to the south from the cooler, drier airmass to the north.

### Northern New Jersey north/east into far southern New England

An unstable airmass will be in place along and south of the aforementioned surface front where MUCAPE values should increase to between 500-1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will be on the southern fringe of the greater mid-level flow, contributing to effective-layer shear on the order of 45 knots.

Modest height falls may overspread the frontal boundary during the afternoon in association with an approaching mid-level speed maximum. This may provide enough forcing for widely scattered thunderstorm development in the region from the lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. The best signal for initiation is along the coastal areas of southern New England/New York, which will limit their potential to produce severe weather before moving offshore. Should thunderstorm initiation occur earlier in the day (and thus farther inland) or thunderstorm coverage is greater than currently expected, a marginal threat for large hail and damaging winds may be realized and severe probabilities would need to be introduced in a later outlook.

### Western Montana

Thunderstorms will once again be possible on Wednesday, thanks in large part to the continued presence of mid-level moisture and modest diurnal heating. Model guidance suggests that widespread cloud cover may limit afternoon heating, which would impact overall instability and resulting thunderstorm intensity. Should robust convection develop, the region remains beneath enhanced mid-level flow that may be transported down to the surface as strong thunderstorm winds/outflow. However, confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities with this outlook.

..Marsh.. 07/14/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 14

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, July 15

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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