Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, August 17

Tuesday, August 18

Wednesday, August 19

Thursday, August 20

Friday, August 21

Saturday, August 22

Sunday, August 23

Monday, August 24

Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170602

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS…AND IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.

Central and Northern Plains

At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains today, within west-northwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a broad corridor of low-level moisture will be in place over the central and northern Plains. A moist axis, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will setup from northwest Kansas north-northeastward into central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Along and near the moist axis, moderate to strong instability will develop by midday with MLCAPE likely increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas during the day. Low-level convergence will become maximized ahead of the front across central Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. This will lead to scattered convective initiation, with thunderstorms forming and moving southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercell development and isolated large hail production in areas that have the best overall environment. However, a mixed mode is expected. Supercells and multicells will be capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely continue into the mid evening, as a somewhat large convective cluster moves southeastward into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys.

Southern Appalachians

A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will lead to the development of moderate to strong instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Low-level convergence along the front, along with topographic forcing, will result in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. These storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and into the lower elevations by early evening. The very moist and unstable air, along with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range will support a wind-damage threat. Severe gusts will be most likely with short organized line segments. The severe threat could persist into the early evening.

Southern Plains

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain in place across southern and western Oklahoma today. Within the post-frontal air, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop along and near the most axis. The instability, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear and 0-3 km lapse exceeding 8 C/km will be favorable for isolated severe wet downbursts.

Northern High Plains

West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place in the northern High Plains over the top of a post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints in parts of central and eastern Montana will be around 50 F. MLCAPE will increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of the northern High Plains. As temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of central Montana, with isolated cells moving eastward across the upper Missouri Valley. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170540

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…PARTS OF NEBRASKA…NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI…AND IOWA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Central Plains to Mid/Upper MS Valley

The forecast for Tuesday has become less certain with time, with current CAMs guidance suggesting early convection across parts NE/IA/MO early in the period. This could have implication on boundary layer destabilization later in the afternoon/evening and how convection develops/evolves during that time.

Nevertheless, an otherwise favorable environment for severe storms could develop as an upper trough continues to dig over the Great Lakes, leading to modest height falls across the northern/central Plains to the Midwest. Northwesterly flow aloft will increase to around 40-50 kt in the midlevels, providing support for supercell wind profiles across the region. Meanwhile, a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of a southeastward-advancing front. Morning convection could result in a convective enhance surface boundary and/or outflow across portions of the NE/KS/MO/IA. Where stronger heating can occur within the very moist warm sector, resulting in stronger differential heating, convection is expected to develop by late afternoon into the evening. This could be storms along one or more boundaries across the broader region. Large hail and strong gusts will be possible with initial storms. A low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the nighttime hours, and some potential for MCS development is apparent, but conditional. Should this occur, potential for damaging wind gusts would increase.

More isolated storms are expected across the High Plains from eastern WY/northeast CO into southwest SD/western NE/KS are expected, and into parts of MN/WI, posing a risk for strong gusts and/or hail.

Southeast

A surface low is forecast to move across NC and lift northward along the East Coast. This will bring a surface front across the Southeast, where a very moist and moderately unstable airmass will be in place beneath deep-layer northwesterly flow. Vertical shear will remain weak, but multi-cell clusters could produce sporadic wet downbursts within the high PW environment. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170644

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Central Plains

Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Wednesday. In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, easterly low-level winds will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across the High Plains, with somewhat deeper moisture further east into central NE. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, and a corridor of moderate to strong instability is forecast. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the low-level warm advection/upslope flow regime during the afternoon into the evening. Isolated large hail and strong outflow winds will be possible.

Mid-South vicinity

An MCV may be located over KS Wednesday morning. This feature will migrate eastward as a surface boundary sags southward across parts of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will be in place near the surface boundary, promoting a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability. However, forecast soundings indicated capping may rapidly increase downstream of the Ozarks into southeast MO and western TN/KY. It is possible that a narrow corridor of severe potential could develop somewhere from the Ozarks into the Mid-South as the MCV and surface boundary impinge on the area. However, confidence is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170748 SPC AC 170748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified upper pattern will persist during the Day 4-8/Thu-Mon period. An upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridging spreads from the western U.S. toward the Plains late in the period. This pattern will result in moderate northwestern flow aloft across portions of the Plains into the Midwest. Beneath northwesterly flow aloft and on the eastern periphery of upper ridging, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place from the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper/Middle MS Valley. Some severe potential could develop over these areas through the period. However, capping may limit this potential, and with no notable features fostering focused large-scale ascent, uncertainty is too high to include 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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