Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260534
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.
Gulf States
Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the primary concern with these storms through early evening.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Summary
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260650
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
Discussion
A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida Peninsula.
Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist, gradually shifting south and east through the period. While thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and limited instability.
Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary. Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall diurnal heating.
Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing, will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized severe threat.
Florida Peninsula
South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm development appears possible during the day on Friday across the Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb, although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and below severe limits.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains early Sunday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday. Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains early Sunday morning.
Discussion
A low-amplitude ridge across the Great Basin/Southwest and broad troughing across the eastern US will result in a continuation of the persistent northwest flow regime across the central US. To the west, moist southwesterly flow across northern California and southern Oregon will slowly shift south as a Pacific low approaches the coast.
At the surface, a weak front will sag south across the Florida peninsula, while a return to southerly winds across the southern Plains will initiate low-level moisture return into Oklahoma. Coincident, an arctic front will push south through the central Plains into the southern Plains as an arctic high builds into the upper Midwest.
Florida Peninsula
A remnant frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida peninsula, where conditions will remain favorable for at least isolated thunderstorms. To the south of the front, surface temperatures should warm into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs with surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid-60Fs. This should yield MUCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg.
While forecast hodographs are expected to lengthen as compared to the prior day, supporting some storm organization, several limiting factors exist. Weak mid-level lapse rates and poor low-level convergence cast doubt on the overall coverage of thunderstorm development. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest subsidence across portions of the peninsula during peak heating, which would further limit convective development.
Northern California and Southern Oregon
Moist southwesterly advection will increase/persist ahead of an approaching Pacific trough. Although instability is rather limited, it does appear to be non-zero. The combination of a moistening troposphere, increased ascent with the approaching trough, and non-zero instability may support a couple of thunderstorms.
Southern Plains
Moist warm-air advection is anticipated to become established Saturday night as a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains. Increasing moisture return will drive surface dewpoints perhaps as high as the upper-50Fs or even low-60Fs. As the arctic front slows and encounters this moistening airmass, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm-air advection regime.
Kinematic profiles will feature very long hodographs and would support updraft organization with potential for at least marginally severe hail. However, this threat is highly conditioned on the quality and magnitude of the moisture return. At this time will defer the introduction of hail probabilities to subsequent outlooks. However, if upper-50F dewpoints are realized, enough elevated instability may develop to support the introduction of hail probabilities at a later time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, February 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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