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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into western New York, the central Plains, and lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Severe hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311626

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW YORK…THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into western New York, the central Plains, and lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Severe hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into Western New York

A closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Saskatchewan/Manitoba will move generally eastward today, with a mid-level anticyclone remaining centered over the mid MS Valley/Mid-South through the period. Between these two features, a belt of enhanced westerly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A rather moist and strongly unstable airmass is expected to be in place this afternoon across portions of WI/MI ahead of a weak front. While there are still some concerns about convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage, it appears that a weak mid-level perturbation over eastern NE/western IA late this morning will track northeastward towards WI by late afternoon/early evening. This feature may aid the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across parts of WI into the U.P. of MI.

Given strong to very strong instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear forecast, widely spaced supercells capable of producing large hail appear possible late this afternoon into the evening across these areas, if convection develops. Considered greater hail probabilities to account for this scenario, but warm low-level temperatures (around 850 mb) and mixed signals in high-resolution guidance cast enough uncertainty on coverage to defer upgrading with this update. Thunderstorms may also spread from Lower MI into western NY tonight into early Tuesday morning. Increasing low-level moisture and related instability may support an isolated threat for damaging winds with this activity, even though lapse rates aloft should remain modest.

Central Plains

High-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and spread east-northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the evening. While low-level moisture/instability will remain limited across eastern CO and vicinity, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates amid a very well-mixed boundary layer may still support isolated strong to severe downdraft winds with this activity. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. Thunderstorm coverage farther east across NE along/near a weak front remains uncertain. But, any convection which can develop and be sustained across this area may also pose an isolated severe threat.

Lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin

A mid-level shortwave trough over CA will move northeastward across NV today and aid thunderstorm development as the boundary layer warms into this afternoon across parts of the lower CO River Valley and Great Basin. Some enhancement to the mid-level flow is forecast, which should support sustained updrafts and possibly a few transient supercells, primarily across far eastern NV, southwest UT, and northwest AZ. Isolated severe hail could occur with these cells. But, strong to severe wind gusts will probably become the primary risk with time given steep low-level lapse rates and tendency for convection to cluster through the late afternoon/early evening.

Coastal/Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana

Reference NHC forecasts/advisories for the latest information on PTC Five over the northern Gulf. Latest model guidance continues to suggest that low-level easterly flow on the northern side of this system will only modestly strengthen before landfall tomorrow. As such, the degree of low-level shear appears too limited to warrant low severe wind or tornado probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Moore.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310604

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may also extend westward into Nebraska.

Synopsis

An upper ridge will prevail over the central MS Valley to the central Appalachians while a negatively tilted upper trough amplifies over the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper ridge, from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, supporting multiple thunderstorm clusters all along the ridge. Across the Northeast, multiple pronounced mid-level impulses, preceded by seasonably cooler mid-level temperatures and stronger westerly flow atop rich low-level moisture, will promote strong thunderstorm potential, some of which may be severe. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Midwest to Great Lakes.

Parts of the Northeast

Weak surface troughing will develop across the lower Hudson Valley, along with the development of a diffuse warm front beneath the northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Guidance currently suggests that at least two impulses may support thunderstorm development over southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. The first and more subtle impulse will overspread the region during the day, accompanied by enough upper support to promote sparse thunderstorm development over the tri-state area. By afternoon, 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 70s F surface dewpoints, resulting in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings also show appreciably curved, sizeable low-level hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible, accompanied by a risk of severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.

Later overnight, the approach of a more pronounced mid-level impulse is expected. As this occurs, thunderstorms should develop around the Great Lakes and traverse the upper ridge, moving southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Despite nocturnal cooling, the rich moisture in place will limit stabilization to a degree. Should stronger storms persist, a few instances of severe wind and hail are possible, especially over central and southern PA.

Portions of the Central Plains to Great Lakes

One mid-level impulse will eject into the central Plains while another low-amplitude upper trough traverses the Great Lakes through the period. By evening, a weak surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains while a diffuse warm front becomes situated over northeastern NE to central WI. Surface dewpoints may reach up to the mid 70s F along portions of this warm front, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE over several locales given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this boundary. A belt of 50+ kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow may also overlap with the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates given the approach of the embedded impulse, supporting 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly curved/elongated hodographs.

Given the strong overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, any storm that can mature and become sustained may become multicellular or supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. At the moment, storm coverage should be sparse, since upper support with the Great Lakes mid-level trough should only graze the warm frontal zone, and the approach of the central Plains impulse should occur late in the period. Therefore, despite the favorable convective environment, probabilities have been maintained at Category 1/Marginal Risk.

Southern TX/LA

Tropical cyclone formation is possible within the next 48 hours along the LA coastline (please see the National Hurricane Center Outlooks for more details). This disturbance will continue to track west-northwestward along the LA/TX coastlines through Tuesday. Vertical shear profiles accompanying this disturbance are forecast to be quite weak, precluding tornado probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 310716

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.

Synopsis

Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS as an upper trough progresses across the Intermountain West on Wednesday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Great Lakes and overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon. Seasonably cold temperatures aloft and strong northwesterly flow will accompany this impulse while it passes over a moist and unstable boundary layer, promoting the potential for severe storms.

Northwest PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline

Scattered thunderstorms (perhaps strong) will be ongoing across PA and points southeast at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday). Through the early afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will give way to at least modest insolation, resulting in boundary layer destabilization. Surface heating of a moist boundary layer (e.g. low 70s F surface dewpoints) will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE given mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. The aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreading eastern Lower Michigan to the Delmarva will result in strong northwesterly flow aloft and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, forecast soundings also depict appreciably large and curved hodographs, with over 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. Supercells and bowing segments will be the most likely storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

Portions of the eastern Great Lakes

A secondary mid-level impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon, which may support an additional round of storms. These storms will be preceded by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which will overspread 70 F surface dewpoints and yield 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells may occur, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Monday, August 31

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, September 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, September 2

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, September 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, September 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, September 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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