Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS…AND OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.
20Z Update
The forecast appears to be on track, and minimal changes were needed with this update. The MRGL and SLGT risk areas in the central High Plains were expanded slightly eastward in western NE and KS. The primary concern will be upscale-growing clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts as storms move into an increasingly warm/moist air mass this evening.
Farther east, severe probabilities were trimmed behind southeastward-moving storms in the central Appalachians. The primary concern continues to be damaging wind gusts, especially with any organized clusters/bowing structures that evolve.
..Weinman.. 07/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026/
East TN into central VA/NC
Late morning thunderstorms persist over parts of this region, with pockets of precip and clouds. This will somewhat limit afternoon heating across NC, but upstream heating and ample moisture should spread eastward. This will aid in the re-development of intense thunderstorms later today across the mountains of east TN/KY into southwest VA and western NC. Forecast soundings show considerable low and deep layer shear, favorable for supercell and bowing structures. Damaging winds are the main concern, but hail and a few tornadoes are also possible if supercells are maintained. These storms will spread southeastward into central NC during the evening with a continued damaging wind risk.
Central VA into parts of PA/DE/NJ
Persistent cloud cover is limiting daytime heating so far from eastern PA eastward to the coast. However, visible satellite imagery shows some clearing developing from central PA into central VA, where temperatures are climbing rapidly into the 80s. This trend will likely spread eastward and aid in the development of scattered afternoon storms. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient winds aloft will promote damaging winds in the strongest cores. Occasional supercell structures could also result in a tornado or two and/or hail.
Eastern CO
An upper ridge is centered over northern NM, with 20-30 knot westerly flow over northern CO/southern WY. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains and foothills today, spreading eastward into the plains by late afternoon. Ample moisture and moderate CAPE over the mountains, along with sufficient vertical shear, may support hail in the strongest cells. As the activity moves eastward into a hot air mass, locally damaging winds will become a risk. This activity may spread into western NE/KS this evening before weakening.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 29
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds are possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern Georgia, northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE…AND FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds are possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern Georgia, northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Southern GA and AL…Northern FL and the FL Panhandle
A slow moving upper trough will begin to weaken/fill on Wednesday over the eastern states, with upper low centered over NY. A cold front will primarily be offshore, but the tail end will extend westward across GA/FL. Ahead of the front, 70s F dewpoints and strong heating will lead to strong instability, with MLCAPE possibly reaching 4000 J/kg. This high PWAT environment along with favorable time of day near peak heating will yield severe wind potential as storms develop near the cold front during the afternoon.
While shear will be weak, modest westerly mean winds aloft should support a general southeastward storm motion with multicells and merging outflows expected. The primary concentration of storms should be from far southern GA into the FL Panhandle and northern FL, and perhaps into far southeast AL. Additional daytime activity is likely farther northwest across MA and AR as well, though large-scale support will be less. Still, areas of strong instability could yield scattered strong gusts there.
Northern High Plains
A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into WY during the afternoon with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates developing. This area will also be affected by a disturbance aloft rounding the upper ridge and enhancing mid/upper winds and deep-layer shear. Southeasterly low-level winds will maintain sufficient moisture into the region to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE even as the boundary layer mixes with heating. Storms will form over eastern MT and WY after 21Z and move into the western Dakotas through early evening, with damaging wind potential. Isolated hail may occur as well as mid/upper lapse rates remain steep, and high level winds increase, elongating hodographs.
..Jewell.. 07/28/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 30
Outlook Summary
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible Thursday afternoon and night across parts of the northern and central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible Thursday afternoon and night across parts of the northern and central Plains.
Discussion
On Thursday, the pattern will feature an upper trough over the East with filling low over the Northeast, and an upper high from the Southwest into the Four Corners states. In between, a modest northwest flow regime will exist over much of the Plains, with embedded disturbances forecast over the northern and central Plains.
During the afternoon, a surface trough will develop from eastern MT into the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong heating will occur. A pre-frontal trough will also develop from SD into MN ahead of a cold front trailing southwestward out of Ontario. This area may be favorable timed with a weak wave moving around the upper ridge, and storms that form within the surface trough will be capable of sporadic severe hail or wind given 2000+ MUCAPE and deep-layer shear around 30 kt. Possible early day thunderstorms complicate the forecast setup, but a Slight Risk may eventually be added over the northern Plains as predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 07/28/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 4 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday
The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.
Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.
### Day 5/Saturday
The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.
Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday
Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.
..Mead.. 07/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 28
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, July 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, July 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, August 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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