Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141237
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.
Midwest
An MCV near the IL-IN border this morning and southward-moving outflow are linked to thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Corn Belt. This outflow boundary will likely stall with the western portion of the boundary advancing northward within a strengthening warm conveyor this afternoon. Guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. A moist airmass upstream over the lower MO Valley will advect northeast beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Topeka, KS raob). MLCAPE at or above 2500 J/kg is forecast by mid-late afternoon from IA into the IA-WI-IL border vicinity. Initial storms later this afternoon will rapidly become supercells with all severe hazards possible. Large to giant hail and an intense tornado will be possible with the more mature/strongest supercells where SRH is locally maximized near the boundary. Upscale growth into a severe cluster is forecast to eventually evolve during the evening aided by a strong southwesterly LLJ into the southern Great Lakes. If a supercell develops ahead of the eastward-moving cluster, a tornado threat could develop as the boundary layer quickly recovers/destabilizes.
Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas
Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into western north TX this afternoon into the evening. Aligning with earlier thinking, strong heating and perhaps weak ascent tied to a subtle mid-level wave, will favor storm development by 20-22z as convective inhibition erodes. A very unstable airmass characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs will strongly favor supercells. The strength of low-level shear remains unclear during the early evening, when the tornado risk could maximize. Nonetheless, increased confidence in widely scattered to scattered supercells yielding a risk for large to giant hail prompted an increase in hail and hail-intensity highlights this outlook update.
Northeast
A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and strengthening winds with height will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to account for hazards associated with supercells.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140555
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast.
MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity
Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection, MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection. However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening, upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and damaging winds will be possible.
Southern Plains
Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150 m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.
Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast
Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Ohio Valley.
Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity
An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates.
Southern Plains vicinity
A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north TX into southern OK.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 14
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, April 15
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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