Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121254
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
Texas/Southern Plains
A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within a moderately unstable environment.
In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.
Minnesota/Wisconsin
A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper 50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front. Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated basis.
Northern Rockies
Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly this afternoon through early evening.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern Plains on Monday.
Synopsis
The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.
Upper Midwest
Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles, cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong instability will support large hail potential.
If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain, it appears most probable from southeast MN toward south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.
Southern Plains
A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop, supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.
Synopsis
Southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. An upper trough over the western U.S. will slowly pivot eastward, emerging over the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. Surface low pressure will remain centered over the central Plains, with troughing extending southwestward into west TX. A cold front will slowly sag southward across portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through the forecast period.
Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes vicinity
Convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Tuesday morning. This activity should spread east, and persistent warm advection should allow for airmass recovery during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread mid 60s F dewpoints, and moderate to strong destabilization is forecast. Stronger height falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting an all-hazards risk. Given uncertainty related to potential airmass contamination from early day convection and cloud cover, and potential capping concerns, will maintain Slight risk (level 2 of 5). However, a rather volatile thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across portions of the region, and higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks depending on forecast trends and mesoscale details.
Southern Plains vicinity
Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a surface dryline should support at least isolated storm development by around 00z. Steep midlevel lapse rates and mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will support strong destabilization amid supercell wind profiles. Large to very large hail will be possible in addition to strong wind gusts and a tornado or two.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 17 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120839 SPC AC 120839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery and convective evolution during the afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
Day 5/Thu
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and limited heating tempering severe potential.
Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 17 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120839 SPC AC 120839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery and convective evolution during the afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
Day 5/Thu
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and limited heating tempering severe potential.
Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 17 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120839 SPC AC 120839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery and convective evolution during the afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
Day 5/Thu
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and limited heating tempering severe potential.
Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 17 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120839 SPC AC 120839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery and convective evolution during the afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
Day 5/Thu
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and limited heating tempering severe potential.
Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 17 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120839 SPC AC 120839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin
An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery and convective evolution during the afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.
Day 5/Thu
Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and limited heating tempering severe potential.
Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun
The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, April 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, April 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, April 15
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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