Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms capable of hail, marginally severe wind gusts, and an isolated tornado risk will be possible early this evening across far southeast Texas and Louisiana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 290036
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms capable of hail, marginally severe wind gusts, and an isolated tornado risk will be possible early this evening across far southeast Texas and Louisiana.
Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with strong westerly flow in place over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is moving southeastward across far southeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F. This is contributing to weak instability along a relatively narrow axis just ahead of the front. Widely-spaced strong storms are ongoing just to the east of this moist axis, with the most organized convection located in southwest Louisiana. The Lake Charles 00Z sounding has a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 knot range. Directional shear is present in the low to mid-levels and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is 175 m2/s2. This could support a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two. Supercells may also be capable of producing isolated large hail and/or wind damage, but the threat is expected to become more isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the region over the next couple of hours.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281803
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT PROBABILITY LABEL
SUMMARY
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina.
Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday. Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature, with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe potential.
Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms may occur from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Severe potential appears low at this time.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281900
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms may occur from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Severe potential appears low at this time.
Synopsis
A compact upper cyclone within a large-scale upper trough across the eastern U.S. will lift northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday. A coastal surface low, initially over VA, will deepen as it likewise tracks northeast through the period. A narrow warm sector will overlap portions of the Chesapeake Bay/southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early afternoon. Strong deep-layer southerly low-level flow is forecast and may support locally strong gusts near coastal areas as the low deepens and lifts northeast.
Low-level thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain poor, with very weak lapse rates. Additionally, forecast soundings show a warm layer around 850 mb atop a cooler low-level boundary layer, further limiting instability and downward momentum transport of stronger winds near the 925-850 mb layer. While low-topped convection is expected across the Mid-Atlantic, poor thermodynamics will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280820 SPC AC 280820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return.
On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.
Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.
..Dean.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280820 SPC AC 280820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return.
On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.
Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.
..Dean.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280820 SPC AC 280820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return.
On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.
Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.
..Dean.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280820 SPC AC 280820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return.
On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.
Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.
..Dean.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 2 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280820 SPC AC 280820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return.
On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.
Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.
..Dean.. 10/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 28
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, October 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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