Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are expected near/along the northern Gulf Coast tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050033
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are expected near/along the northern Gulf Coast tonight.
01z Update
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing east-northeast across the lower MS Valley early this evening. A corridor of weak convection is noted ahead of this feature from southeast LA into southwest AL. The deepest, more robust updrafts over southeast LA are generating a few flashes of lightning. Surface-based buoyancy is not expected to materialize inland through sunrise, and any thunderstorm activity near the Gulf Coast will be driven in large part by warm advection, and should remain elevated. Midlevel instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe.
..Darrow.. 12/05/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.
Synopsis
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast where a few thunderstorms are possible early.
Southern LA to the FL Panhandle
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential remains too low for probabilities.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.
Synopsis
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.
As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday, weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the severe risk appears low.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.
..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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