Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Friday, July 10

Saturday, July 11

Sunday, July 12

Monday, July 13

Tuesday, July 14

Wednesday, July 15

Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia, and over southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081612

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO…SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA…AND NORTHWEST KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia, and over southeast Arizona.

WI/MN/IA

A fast-moving shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND. As this system approaches the western Great Lakes region this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along a surface boundary extending from southeast MN into central WI. A moist and very unstable air mass will be present along the boundary, aiding in the development of a few severe storms. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. This activity will build westward along the boundary into northern IA by early evening. A cluster or two of this activity could congeal into bowing structures with a continued severe wind risk this evening.

High Plains

The upper ridge over the Rockies has weakened today, resulting in stronger westerly flow into parts of WY/CO/NE/KS. Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY and spread eastward into the Plains. Moisture will be limited near the foothills, but weak easterly surface winds will maintain 40s dewpoints in eastern CO, leading to convective intensification. Most CAM solutions show thunderstorms capable of locally severe wind gusts tracking eastward through the evening into parts of southwest NE and western KS before dissipating after midnight.

Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies

Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates, and ample mid-level moisture will result in conditions favorable for scattered high-based thunderstorms over a relatively broad area this afternoon and evening. Gusty/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

Southeast AZ

Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and propagate south-southwestward through the early evening. Inverted-v profiles will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in a few of the storms.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large hail are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081701

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…THE LOWER MO AND OH VALLEYS…AND THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large hail are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Lower MO to Lower OH Valleys

One or more MCVs are forecast to be located over the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley vicinity Thursday morning. As these features migrate eastward through the day, locally enhanced vertical shear will combine with a very moist and strongly unstable airmass to provide support for widely scattered organized severe convection. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated hail. An initial cluster may develop across eastern MO/southern IL and shift east along the Lower OH Valley. Some guidance suggests a second cluster may develop across southern MO and move east/southeast across the Mid-South vicinity and eventually into TN overnight. An increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening could maintain some severe risk even into the nighttime hours across the Mid-South into TN and severe probabilities have been expanded some across this area to reflect this potential. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely similar to the previous Day 2 outlook.

Northern/Central Plains

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the region within northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a pocket of richer boundary layer moisture is forecast across the central Plains, with more modest moisture expected northward into the Dakotas. Strong heating along a surface trough and steep midlevel lapse rates will support pockets of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Initial supercell structures are possible across the High Plains and will pose a risk of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, sufficient clustering/outflow consolidation is expected and one or more linear segments will evolve into portions of western KS/NE. Severe gust potential will increase as this occurs during the evening hours.

Further north into North Dakota, a separate area of supercell potential is expected as a weak surface low moves east along the international border near eastern MT/western ND. Isolated supercells developing ahead of an approaching surface front will pose a risk for mainly large hail and strong gusts during the evening.

Mid-Atlantic

Strong daytime heating of a very moist airmass will result in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, forecast soundings do indicate around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. This may allow for some organization of thunderstorm clusters by late afternoon. Most CAMs guidance indicate a forward-propagating cluster moving across the DelMarVa area and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by evening. Sufficient coverage of storms and expected damaging gust potential appears high enough to upgrade to a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk.

AZ

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM Thursday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This activity may pose a risk for isolated severe gusts as convection shifts southwest across lower elevated through evening.

Lower Great Lakes vicinity

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within modest instability ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary on Thursday. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential will likely be limited by poor lapse rates and modest instability.

..Leitman.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve in a corridor across parts of the central Great Plains into Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080712

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS…OZARK PLATEAU…AND TENNESSEE VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve in a corridor across parts of the central Great Plains into Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

To the southeast of a significant digging trough offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, models continue to indicate that an increasingly prominent mid/upper-level high may begin to form across portions of the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity. Ridging is also forecast to continue building along an axis northward through the northern U.S. Great Plains and eastern Canadian Prairies Friday through Friday night, while positively tilted larger-scale downstream troughing gradually shifts into and across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of weak remnant troughing across the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains remains much more unclear. However, guidance generally suggests that a belt of convectively augmented mid-level flow will linger across southern portions of the central Great Plains through Tennessee Valley, and perhaps through southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization appears most certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to 850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. Focused in zones of strengthening differential heating across a remnant outflow boundary, or boundaries, the environment might become conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters with potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts Friday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080848 SPC AC 080848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

There remains a general consensus in medium-range guidance that a prominent mid-level high will build further while developing across and northeast of the Colorado Plateau through the middle Missouri Valley this coming weekend into early next week, within elongating larger scale ridging. A bit more uncertainty lingers concerning the evolution of larger-scale troughing and embedded short wavelength developments to the northeast and east of this feature into the early to middle portion of next week, but it still appears that this ridging may eventually become suppressed across the Great Lakes region.

As a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air advects along the southern fringe of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge, it may contribute to an environment conducive to the initiation and evolution of organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of damaging surface gusts. Based on latest guidance, this may tend to initially remain north of the international border from the Great Plains through the upper Great Lakes. However, due to spread within and among the various model output, it remains unclear whether this activity will pose a greater potential impact to portions of New England or the lower Great Lakes into northern Mid Atlantic by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, July 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.