Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111231
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected today.
NY/PA/WV
A deep, cold upper trough will be present today over the eastern US, with the trough axis and associated cold pool aloft moving across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings suggest that despite cold mid-level temperatures below -30C, weak/shallow CAPE profiles will preclude charge separation except on a very isolated basis.
Elsewhere no thunderstorms are forecast today.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110829
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110946 SPC AC 110946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain in the eastern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the lower forty-eight states from mid to late week. Cold and dry surface high pressure will dominate across much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development.
..Broyles.. 01/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, January 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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