Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131244
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Ohio Valley into the Northeast
Within large-scale upper troughing over eastern Canada, a strong west-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast by this evening. A surface cold front will likewise track eastward across these regions through the period. While a seasonably moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front, poor lapse rates aloft (around 6-6.5 C/km) and cloud cover should limit the degree of destabilization that can occur this afternoon. Still, even with the thermodynamic environment remaining marginal, strengthening mid-level flow through the day will support 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear and the potential for organized convection.
Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the front by mid afternoon (around 19-22Z) from parts of OH into western NY, and then spread quickly eastward across the upper OH Valley into the Northeast. The deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells initially, with perhaps a marginal/isolated hail threat even with the poor lapse rates present aloft. But, clusters/bowing segments with an isolated damaging wind threat should quickly develop given the linear forcing of the front. This convection is forecast to weaken with eastward extent this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling, and as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Confidence in a corridor of greater damaging wind potential remains too low for higher severe wind probabilities at this time.
Central/Northern High Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley
A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will move eastward to the northern Rockies/High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this low, though a narrow zone of weak instability may develop by late afternoon from northeast CO into southeast WY and the NE Panhandle in a modest low-level upslope flow regime. Isolated thunderstorm development appears possible across this area, with sufficient deep-layer shear for transient updraft organization and isolated severe hail/wind potential.
While any diurnally developing convection will likely weaken through the evening with the loss of daytime heating, elevated thunderstorms should increase in coverage across western/central SD towards the mid MO Valley late tonight into early Monday morning. Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient cloud-layer shear could support an isolated hail threat with the initial development across western SD, though mergers/interactions and weakening buoyancy will likely limit the longevity and eastward extent of this threat into the mid MO Valley.
Long Island/Southern New England
Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across NJ into southern NY/New England. This activity is being aided by ascent associated with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough. As this feature develops northeastward through the early afternoon, continued low-level warm/moist advection will occur across Long Island into southern New England. Most guidance continues to show minimal surface-based instability over land, with generally elevated thunderstorms expected. Still, given the modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear forecast, trends will be monitored for signs of surface-based instability/thunderstorm potential.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
An isolated severe thunderstorm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster of storms, may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130442
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
### SUMMARY
An isolated severe thunderstorm or two, and perhaps a small organizing cluster of storms, may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
Latest model output remains generally unchanged from prior runs concerning the large-scale pattern evolution through this period. To the east of a still fairly prominent mid-level high slowly beginning to shift eastward across the northeastern Pacific, a number of short wave perturbations are forecast to dig through multiple branches of westerlies across the Pacific coast and higher latitudes of northwestern North America into the Canadian Prairies.
As this occurs, and downstream mid/upper ridging becomes increasingly prominent across the southern Great Plains through lower Great Lakes and north Mid Atlantic Seaboard, a notable remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation is forecast to accelerate more rapidly east-northeast of the northern U.S. Rockies, across the international border into northwestern Ontario by late Monday night. It appears that this will be accompanied by fairly significant surface cyclogenesis, and considerable strengthening of south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
While an associated increase in vertical shear will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized severe weather potential, destabilization within the evolving warm sector remains much more uncertain. Fairly widespread weak, elevated convection may overspread much of the northern Great Plains and middle to lower Missouri through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region, reinforcing a relatively cool/stable boundary-layer to the north of a stalled surface frontal zone across the lower Missouri Valley through central Great Plains, before it begins to retreat northward.
Southern Mid Missouri Valley into central Great Plains
There does appear a general consensus within/among the model output that the northward retreating low-level baroclinic zone may reach the southern fringe of the westerlies, across parts of Nebraska through Iowa by late Monday afternoon. It appears possible that boundary-layer moistening will contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and evening.
Particularly where the southern periphery of a strong southerly low-level jet impinges on this front, across the eastern Nebraska into western Iowa vicinity, at least some guidance continues to suggest a scenario where the environment could become supportive of the evolution of an isolated intense supercell into small upscale growing cluster for a period late Monday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130704
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
A deamplifying mid-level short wave trough and associated surface cyclone are forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration through this period, generally across the remainder of northwestern Ontario through much of northern Quebec by late Tuesday night. In the wake of the cyclone, an initial low-level baroclinic zone across the lower Great Lakes region through the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains may make some southward progression, before stalling and perhaps retreating northward beneath the building northwestern periphery of prominent ridging still centered across the Southeast. There is variance among the guidance concerning this latter development, and the evolution of digging upstream mid-level troughing across the northern Intermountain Region and Pacific Coast.
Southern Great Lakes through central Great Plains
Mainly where mid-level heights remain suppressed, prior to the onset of the mid-level height rises, coincident with daytime boundary-layer destabilization along and southeast of the slow moving frontal zone, a corridor of increasing, scattered thunderstorm development appears possible through mid to late Tuesday afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates may support the evolution of moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, near the modest southern fringe of the mid-level westerlies, which may still include speeds of 30+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer. A warm layer in mid/upper levels may tend to suppress large hail, but thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates of potential wet-bulb temperatures in lower/mid-levels could contribute to a few downbursts and developing cold pools with a few strong gusts into Tuesday evening.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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