Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across Far West Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across Far West Texas.
Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas
A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Four Corners region ahead of stronger height falls approaching the Pacific Northwest. Although this trough should gradually weaken, associated large-scale ascent will overspread the northwestern periphery of a persistent low- to midlevel moist plume extending across New Mexico. A slow-moving, northeast to southwest-oriented baroclinic zone will provide a focus for convective development, with differential heating and terrain-induced vertical circulations likely contributing to thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon.
The thermodynamic environment across the region will be somewhat complex. Steeper midlevel lapse rates will generally reside northwest of the surface warm sector, closer to the ejecting shortwave trough, while the richer low-level moisture will remain displaced farther southeast. Additionally, repeated convective episodes over the preceding several days have acted to temper lapse rates across portions of the warm sector. This, combined with potentially extensive cloud cover, should limit the magnitude and spatial extent of destabilization.
That said, surface dewpoints in the middle 50Fs to near 60F should support pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where sufficient insolation occurs. This degree of buoyancy may prove sufficient for sustained deep convection. Given forecast wind fields across the region indicative of deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots, the CAPE-shear parameter space will support supercells capable of large hail, generally in the 1-1.5 inch range. Additionally, forecast hodographs suggest enough low-level curvature to support a tornado or two with any sustained, discrete supercell.
Despite the seemingly favorable ingredients within the large-scale environment, the severe weather threat should remain somewhat conditional. Questions remains surrounding both the degree and spatial extent of instability, and subsequently the spatial overlap of favorable thermodynamics and kinematic fields. This uncertainty limits confidence in a more substantial severe threat. That said, a more focused corridor or two of higher severe potential could become apparent later today as mesoscale details and convective evolution become better resolved.
### Oregon Coast
Isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Oregon coast early on Sunday as the cold core of an approaching midlevel trough moves into the area. Shallow convective cells may become sufficiently deep to produce sporadic lightning.
### Southeast Florida
Across southeast Florida, moist northeasterly flow along the western periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas may support occasional thunderstorms. Weak forecast vertical shear and warm mid-level temperatures should limit any organized severe potential.
..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250502
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough initially over the southern/central High Plains, will lift northeast to the Upper Midwest on Monday into early Tuesday. Large-scale upper troughing will persist across the western U.S. as a deepening cyclone and attendant shortwave trough deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a cold front progressing south/southeast across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley.
Modest destabilization is forecast from southwest TX, southern/eastern NM, portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far southwest KS. Isolated thunderstorms may develop toward late afternoon through evening. Effective shear around 25-30 kt could support transient storm organization, but southwest flow below 500 mb is forecast to remain fairly weak. Furthermore, warmer midlevel temperatures may hinder stronger updrafts despite modest instability. While the strongest storms could produce small hail, overall severe potential appears limited, precluding Level 1/Marginal risk probabilities.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250639
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A series of upper troughs will migrate across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday while upper ridging amplifies over the East. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture (mainly 50s F dewpoints) from OK/KS into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with 60s F dewpoints possible further south across TX. A surface front initially over KS to central IA will lift northward through the period in response to increasing low-level warm advection ahead of a shortwave trough traversing the northern Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the broader warm advection regime across parts of the Plains from South TX into the Mid-MO Valley. Modest instability and generally weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, October 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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