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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, April 7
Wednesday, April 8
Thursday, April 9
Friday, April 10
Saturday, April 11
Sunday, April 12
Monday, April 13
Tuesday, April 14

Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

Outlook Summary

Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

Synopsis and Discussion

A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating. However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection eventually focuses offshore by this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071642

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

Kansas

A compact upper trough will pivot across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure centered over southern Manitoba will develop east/northeast toward James Bay by the end of the period. A trailing cold front will shift southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Gulf moisture return will remain muted given persistent high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal intrusions into the Gulf. As a result, surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 40s ahead of the cold front across the central Plains. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft (around -18 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the region. This will aid in weak destabilization in a narrow corridor near the front during the late afternoon and evening. Low-level flow through at least 700 mb will remain fairly weak (less than 20 kt), but vertically veering wind profiles with stronger northwest flow aloft will result in supercell wind profiles and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the cold front from late afternoon into the evening hours across western and central KS. While instability will be the main limiting factor for a more robust severe risk, isolated large hail will be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles are evident in forecast soundings. Weak low-level flow will temper the damaging wind risk, but locally strong gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071852

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.

Synopsis

A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the High Plains.

Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity from late afternoon into the evening.

Southern High Plains

A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained. Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also may be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, April 10 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, April 11 15%
Day 6 Sunday, April 12 15%
Day 7 Monday, April 13 15%
Day 8 Tuesday, April 14 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, April 10 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, April 11 15%
Day 6 Sunday, April 12 15%
Day 7 Monday, April 13 15%
Day 8 Tuesday, April 14 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, April 10 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, April 11 15%
Day 6 Sunday, April 12 15%
Day 7 Monday, April 13 15%
Day 8 Tuesday, April 14 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, April 10 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, April 11 15%
Day 6 Sunday, April 12 15%
Day 7 Monday, April 13 15%
Day 8 Tuesday, April 14 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, April 10 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, April 11 15%
Day 6 Sunday, April 12 15%
Day 7 Monday, April 13 15%
Day 8 Tuesday, April 14 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 7
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, April 8
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: low
Thursday, April 9
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, April 10
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 11
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 12
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 13
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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