Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur farther east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310040
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur farther east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this evening.
Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Michigan
At mid-levels, flow will remain westerly across much of the central U.S. tonight, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward across the lower to Mid Mississippi Valley. In response, moisture advection will increase from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest, as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens this evening and overnight. The northern edge of the low-level jet will be located from Iowa eastward into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, where lift will be maximized. Within this zone, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into the overnight period.
On radar, isolated thunderstorms are already ongoing across east-central Iowa this evening. In the vicinity of this storm, RAP forecast soundings early this evening show a near surface inversion, with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for a severe threat with cells that initiate later this evening. The storms will likely be elevated and could become supercells with potential for large hail. The greatest threat for large hail will be located along and just to the north of the strongest instability, from near Des Moines east-northeastward to the vicinity of Chicago and Milwaukee. Hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible with the strongest of supercells. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop as convective coverage increases from late this evening into the overnight period.
Further east into Lower Michigan, scattered convective initiation is expected by early Tuesday morning. These storms could have an isolated threat for hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat is expected to be marginal and more localized due to weaker instability.
Southern Plains
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over west-central Kansas. Lift associated with this feature is contributing to convective development across the eastern Texas Panhandle this evening. These storms are located just to the west of an axis of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, according to the RAP. Forecast soundings near Childress have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, with very steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This should be favorable for a marginal wind-damage threat, with any threat expected to persist for a couple more hours.
..Broyles.. 03/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and severe hail are the main concerns. Isolated severe storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and severe hail are the main concerns. Isolated severe storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains.
Midwest and Great Lakes Region
Embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a low-amplitude midlevel wave and accompanying 80-90-kt speed max will advance eastward from the northern Plains/Manitoba across Ontario and Quebec through the period. In the low-levels, an east/west-oriented quasi-stationary warm front will extend from New England westward to a weak low over lower MI, with a cold front trailing west-southwestward from the low into the central Plains. In response to the migratory wave, the surface low will move eastward along the frontal zone during the day, before the trailing cold front overspreads the region during the evening/overnight hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the frontal zone on Tuesday morning, and it is unclear if/when this early-day activity will diminish, given persistent low-level warm advection amid deep moisture. Nevertheless, current expectations are that these storms and/or additional storms will intensify while spreading/developing east-southeastward across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast during the afternoon. Here, upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates/EML will contribute to at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy along/south of the frontal zone. This buoyancy, coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and the potential for a few semi-discrete supercells initially – capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and some large hail. Given clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, though this remains more conditional. With time, upscale growth into several lines/clusters will promote a continued risk of damaging winds and some embedded tornado risk as storms spread east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Depending on boundary-layer recovery, a greater severe risk may materialize from parts of lower MI into far southwest NY and northwest PA.
Southern Plains
Strong diurnal heating amid steep deep-layer lapse rates along a north/south-oriented dryline should promote isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the evening. Antecedent dry air and weak forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on storm coverage. However, any storms that do form will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe gusts – given moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 20-30 kt of effective shear.
..Weinman.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Southern and Central Plains
A large-scale trough accompanied by 40-50-kt midlevel southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Southwest/Great Basin across the southern/central Plains through the period. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen and track eastward across the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline makes little eastward progression over the southern Plains. Ample diurnal heating and parallel low-level flow to the dryline will support scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon as inhibition at the base of the EML erodes. As the enhanced midlevel flow accompanying the trough overspreads the dryline, effective shear should increase to around 40 kt. The elongated hodographs and moderate surface-based buoyancy should initially support semi-discrete supercells with a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. Soon after, strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the trough should promote upscale growth into clusters/lines and could develop into a severe MCS. This would favor an increasing risk of severe gusts (some 75+ mph possible). Confidence in this scenario is currently highest over parts of west/central OK into north TX, where a SLGT Risk was added. ### Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
Despite weak large-scale forcing for ascent, diurnal heating amid upper 50/lower 60s dewpoints and relatively steep lapse rates should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along and south of a stationary front draped across the area. Sufficient surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of effective shear will support a couple organized storm clusters with a risk of damaging winds and isolated hail.
..Weinman.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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