Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081240
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible.
South Texas
Downstream of a mid/upper-level trough/low over northern Mexico, thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of south TX. A weak surface low/inverted trough is also analyzed across this region, with greater low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints) present across the lower TX Coast. Weak surface-based instability should develop this morning as filtered daytime heating occurs, and strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur near the coast in the vicinity of Corpus Christi. Modest enhancement to the low-level winds (southeasterly around 20-25 kt; reference 12Z CRP observed sounding) and sufficient deep-layer shear should exist for organized updrafts, including marginal supercell structures (with one attempt already observed southwest of KCRP). While low/mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, any sustained surface-based supercell could produce isolated severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado given effective SRH around 100 m2/s2. Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms are forecast across a broader portion of south-central TX, as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough/low overlaps with a weakly unstable airmass inland.
Pacific Northwest
Thunderstorm potential should continue to diminish this morning as large-scale ascent associated with a strong mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. But, occasional lightning flashes may still occur with post-frontal low-topped convection in the short term, as cold mid-level temperatures support weak MUCAPE.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Monday and Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Monday and Monday night.
DISCUSSION
Mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Monday. Further south, an upper-level low will move across the southern High Plains, weakening substantially during the day. Southeastward from the low, scattered thunderstorms will be possible early in the day over parts of south Texas. Instability will be very weak and no severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080822
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as west-northwesterly flow remains in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. A shortwave trough will also move eastward in the vicinity of the western Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moist airmass from south Texas to the middle Texas Coast on Tuesday. No severe threat is expected, and thunderstorms are not forecast across the remainder of the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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