Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201248
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Synopsis and Discussion
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over central/eastern Canada and the CONUS today, expansive surface high pressure in place across the MS/OH Valleys and eastern states will shift gradually eastward as weak surface lee troughing/low development occurs across the central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture will advance slightly inland across parts of deep south into coastal/east TX, but instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through the end of the period.
..Gleason/Dean.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200610
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana.
Synopsis
Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200745
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South.
Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, January 26 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, January 27 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, January 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game