Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, January 10

Sunday, January 11

Monday, January 12

Tuesday, January 13

Wednesday, January 14

Thursday, January 15

Friday, January 16

Saturday, January 17

Outlook for Saturday, January 10

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101957

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning.

20Z Update

Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward. This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe probabilities have been removed with this update.

..Wendt.. 01/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/

MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle

Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower 60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast where the convective line is further displaced from stronger forcing/low-level mass response.

A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, January 11

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101705

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

Synopsis

A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night. The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic through the day. In association with these features, shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Monday, January 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101925

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

Synopsis

Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is expected to limit lightning potential.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, January 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, January 15

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, January 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, January 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100940 SPC AC 100940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, January 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, January 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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