Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091958
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
20z Update
15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential may materialize.
Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida
Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL, convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding. Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon.
Eastern Texas Panhandle
Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and guidance.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details.
..Moore.. 05/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/
Southern/Central Plains
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.
Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.
Great Lakes
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at this time.
Mid-Atlantic
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.
Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night
Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least isolated wind damage and large hail.
Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning.
### FL Sunday afternoon/evening
Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more probable zone for development will be skewed to the central peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main threats.
..Thompson.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091905
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Southeast Monday afternoon
A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection. Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula.
Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night
Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates.
..Thompson.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090843 SPC AC 090843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and into the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each day, but weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. A north-to-south axis of instability is forecast to develop in the wake of the ridge across the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible along parts of this corridor Thursday afternoon and evening.
On Friday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place over a moist and unstable airmass from eastern Kansas southward into Oklahoma, where isolated severe storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
On Saturday, strong low-level moisture advection is forecast to develop over the south-central U.S., as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Near this trough, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Moderate deep-layer shear and instability should be favorable for an isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening, mainly from Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas.
Considering the last few days of the Day 4 to 8 period, recent models have shown substantial variability from run to run. Scenarios have been outlined based on model consensus. However, confidence is low concerning potential outcomes, especially this upcoming weekend.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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