Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential is expected to remain low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061248
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential is expected to remain low.
Synopsis
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.
Central/southern Florida Peninsula
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the marginality of the overall scenario.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060545
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, as a cold front moves slowly across the Florida Peninsula. South of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass, mainly across the southern and central Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. Additional storms are expected on Tuesday from far west Texas northward into the southern Rockies. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains Wednesday night.
Central Plains
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 11 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 12 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.
On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, April 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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