Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240559
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
Synopsis
An upper trough over the western US and Rockies is forecast to become increasingly fragmented as the primary vort max lifts northeastward from the northern Rockies into southern Canada. Southern portions of the main trough will be reinforced by an upper-level cyclone emerging from northern Baja, forecast to deepen modestly as it moves over the Desert Southwest. Relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft will precede the southern stream low extending eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across the Plains trailing from a deepening surface low in southern Canada. A much weaker surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners. A relatively moist air mass will be enhanced by weak height falls, and the developing surface cyclones, which should gradually strengthen south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2km AGL.
Southwest and Four Corners
Initial ascent from the approaching upper low will begin to overspread the Four Corners relatively early in the forecast period. Despite cooler surface temperatures, the moist air mass and steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) for storm development/intensification as early as 12-13z. As wind fields aloft strengthen (40-50 kt EBWD), at least an isolated risk for hail may materialize.
More robust storm development is expected to gradually occur east of a weak surface trough later in the diurnal cycle as destabilization increases across south-central NM into northern Mexico and Far West TX. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amidst modestly veering, but elongated hodographs promoting organized clusters and supercells. Large hail (1-2 inches) will be possible given the degree of buoyancy and cooler mid-level temperatures. The most likely corridor for larger hail may be confined to the greater instability reservoir across southern portions of the risk area. While low-level shear will remain on the weaker side, at least some curvature in the lowest 1-2 km of model hodographs could support an isolated tornado risk with the more strongly rotating storms.
Eventually, the meridional nature of the upper-level flow and increasing storm coverage should favor a transition to more cluster/linear storm modes into the evening across southern NM and West TX. Severe gusts will be possible, though eventually convection should weaken as it encounters a more stable and drier environment farther east.
Northeast NM and southeast CO
The surface cold front is forecast to move southward over the Plains through the day. Ahead of it, low-level upslope flow will maintain modest surface moisture sufficient for weak destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the frontal zone and across the higher terrain through the afternoon. While weak buoyancy should temper overall intensity, veering wind profiles could support occasional intensification of some clusters. A low-end risk for severe gusts or isolated hail is possible.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240519
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Southern/Eastern NM into Southwest TX
The upper cyclone and attendant trough over UT/AZ early Sunday will weaken as it lifts northeast toward the central Plains through early Monday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary is forecast from central NM northeastward into the central Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow on the warm side of the boundary will maintain 50s F dewpoints across the region.
Cloudiness and possibly ongoing showers/thunderstorms early in the period lend to uncertainty regarding degree of daytime heating and thus, destabilization. Nevertheless, modest instability is expected amid vertically veering/supercell wind profiles. Elongated hodographs and cool temperatures near -10 to -12 C at 500 mb suggest isolated hail will be possible with strongest storms.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240656
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will continue weakening as it lifts northeast to the Upper MS Valley on Monday. Meanwhile, a weak upper shortwave impulse will move across the southern High Plains vicinity and a stronger/deepening upper cyclone/trough will dig over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a cold front will develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across the southern High Plains into the KS/NE ahead of the surface front. Instability is expected to remain weak, and vertical shear will also be weaker than the previous few days. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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