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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 1

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011957

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS…OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

20z Update OK/KS/MO

Observational trends and model guidance continue to show rapid destabilization taking place this afternoon as a warm front gradually lifts northward across OK into southeastern KS and southwestern MO. Large-scale ascent is forecast to increase rapidly tonight as the primary upper trough over the Four Corners ejects eastward, aiding in storm development along a broad area of the front. Semi-discrete supercells and clusters are possible tonight before upscale growth takes place after 00z. The strong synoptic ascent should favor a rapid strengthening of low-level flow and shear. This would support a risk for damaging gusts and some tornadoes with remaining supercells or linear segments. Expand the 5% tornado and 15% wind areas farther east into MO where CAM guidance shows storm persisting overnight.

Farther southwest, no significant changes were made to the prior outlook. Scattered semi-discrete thunderstorm development remains likely along the dryline/front intersection across west/southwestern OK into western north TX this afternoon amid filtered heating of a moistening air mass. Initial supercells will pose risk for large hail and a couple tornadoes. The damaging wind threat (and possible some QLCS tornado risk) will likely increase after dark as storms congeal and spread northeastward beneath an intensifying 40-50 kt low-level jet.

OH Valley and Mid Atlantic

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and expected to gradually increase in coverage through this evening along a frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. South of the front, moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support some storm organization with supercells or organized clusters from northeast KY into southern OH and parts of WV/VA. Damaging gusts, and perhaps some hail are possible with the stronger storms.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026/

OK/TX

Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO

Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic

A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS…AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong.

Discussion

While a notable mid/upper high persists across the southwestern mid- into subtropical western Atlantic, flow emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to remain progressive into and across the Pacific coast through this period. Within this regime, a strong mid/upper jet streak, short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are forecast to dig across the northern U.S. Pacific coast through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain Region and Rockies by early Friday. It appears that this will be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies late Thursday through Thursday night.

As this occurs, a preceding short wave trough, which has emerged from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, likely will be forced north-northeast of the central Great Plains through the Upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region by late Thursday night. Models suggest that it will deamplify as it does, but an initially deep associated surface cyclone may maintain considerable strength as its center migrates from northeastern Kansas through northeastern Iowa by late afternoon, before undergoing more appreciable weakening while continuing across the eastern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan vicinity overnight.

Great Plains into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes

Considerable convective development may be ongoing at the outset of the period across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, and southward across the eastern Great Plains into central Texas. Much of this is likely to be well in the process of weakening, particularly across the southeastern Great Plains, as the mid/upper wave continues accelerating across/north-northeast of the central Great Plains during the day.

Due to still somewhat modest warm sector boundary-layer moisture, and convective cloud cover spreading downstream across the potential near-surface inflow environment, models suggest little potential for appreciable destabilization and re-intensification of the initial pre-cold frontal convective development as it spreads across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley during the day.

However, in its wake, a corridor of better pre-cold frontal low-level moisture return, beneath a plume of a steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a developing dry slot, is forecast to contribute to at least a narrow corridor of substantive boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg along/ahead of a developing dryline/closely trailing cold front, from the vicinity of the low across east central Iowa southwestward toward the Missouri Ozarks by 20-21Z.

Particularly near the surface low and warm front intersection, forcing for ascent probably will be sufficient to support intense convective development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (beneath a 50+ kt southerly 850 mb jet). This should, at least initially, include discrete supercell development with potential to produce tornadoes, before perhaps growing upscale while developing east-northeastward ahead of the surface cyclone into Thursday evening.

Additional supercells are likely to continue developing south-southwestward along the trailing dryline, before it is overtaken by the cold front, toward the lower Missouri Valley. Embedded within south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50+ kts, fast storm motions roughly aligned with the axis of destabilization could support a couple of long-lived/long track supercells with potential for strong tornadoes, before convection weakens Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 3

Outlook Summary

An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

Discussion

While an initial surface cyclone weakens northeast of the Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley during the day Friday, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance into the Northeast while stalling near/just south of the Great Lakes region into the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, ahead of a progressive large-scale mid/upper trough advancing east of the Rockies. It appears that the intersection of this front and a Pacific front advancing east of the southern Rockies may become the focus for a modest surface cyclone, which guidance generally suggests will weaken while migrating east-northeast of the central Great Plains and occluding late Friday through Friday night.

It appears that low-level moisture return ahead of the Pacific cold front and dryline will contribute to a corridor of moderate boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg across parts of northwest Texas through eastern Kansas and western Missouri by Friday afternoon, with similar destabilization possible along the stalled frontal zone near the Missouri/Iowa border, perhaps into parts of the lower Ohio Valley.

Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the large-scale trough, their appears a considerable signal in latest model output that the evolution of a fairly extensive east-southeastward advancing squall line is possible ahead of the Pacific cold front late Friday afternoon and evening. After an initial period with potential for severe hail, widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes associated with developing meso-vortices will become the primary threats as convection grows upscale and forward propagates.

It is possible that the surface low/frontal intersection near the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity could become a potential focus for higher severe probabilities. However, given initially cool/stable air to the north of this front, and the weakening nature of the surface cyclone, this remains unclear. Higher severe weather probabilities may need to be focused ahead of the Pacific front across parts of western into central Missouri, central into eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, April 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

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Outlook for Monday, April 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 1

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, April 2

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Friday, April 3

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, April 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, April 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, April 7

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, April 8

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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