Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230045
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, water vapor imagery shows a ridge in place over the south-central U.S., with a trough located in the Intermountain West. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will persist over a weakly unstable airmass from this evening into tonight in parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms will also persist within a moist airmass this evening over parts of the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas. No severe threat is expected through daybreak on Wednesday.
..Broyles.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of eastern Tennessee and vicinity on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221719
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND VICINITY
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of eastern Tennessee and vicinity on Wednesday.
Eastern TN and vicinity
A mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over most of the East on Wednesday. A reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move from the lower Ohio Valley toward the southern Appalachians through the day. A narrow zone of moderate destabilization is expected to develop during the afternoon from northeast AL into eastern TN and southeast KY, in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough. The approaching shortwave trough and terrain-related circulations will result in thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
The greatest storm coverage is currently expected in the vicinity of eastern TN, where effective shear will generally be in the 25-30 kt range, with modestly elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. The environment will support at least brief storm organization, with localized hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. A Level-1/Marginal Risk has been added where relative confidence is highest in strong diurnal storm development. Deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger into central AL/west-central GA, though substantial midlevel dryness and warmer temperatures aloft may tend to limit storm coverage with southward extent.
Northern High Plains
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas on Wednesday. The relatively early timing of this system will not be ideal for surface-based development later in this afternoon across the northern High Plains, where some diurnal destabilization is expected. Isolated strong storm development cannot be ruled out in this area, while generally weak elevated convection is expected farther east across the eastern Dakotas into MN.
Southern High Plains
Relatively widespread convection is expected from eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandles, in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving northward out of Mexico. Generally weak lapse rates and buoyancy are expected to limit severe potential, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, given the presence of veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt of effective shear.
..Dean.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 221843
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Large-scale upper-level troughs are expected to persist across the eastern and western CONUS on Thursday, with an upper ridge expected to remain in place across the south-central CONUS. Across the East, favorable low-level moisture will become increasingly confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL. Farther west, seasonably rich PW will support thunderstorm potential across a broad region from the Southwest into the High Plains, though generally weak lapse rates/buoyancy and modest deep-layer flow/shear are currently expected to limit organized severe potential.
..Dean.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging across the Plains and upper troughing over the western and eastern U.S. will persevere through the weekend, before a more progressive pattern takes shape and an upper trough ejects into the Plains states early next week. Through the weekend, thunderstorm chances should remain confined to the High Plains and points westward, with little indication of an organized severe threat. By early next week, there is some consensus among medium-range deterministic guidance of a surface low developing over the central Plains, encouraging low-level moisture advection beneath cooling temperatures and increasing west-southwesterly flow aloft. However, guidance does not show a favorable overlap of instability or vertical wind shear, with AI/ML calibrated guidance also not depicting a signal for severe, so probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, September 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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