Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, March 7

Sunday, March 8

Monday, March 9

Tuesday, March 10

Wednesday, March 11

Thursday, March 12

Friday, March 13

Saturday, March 14

Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070602

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK…PENNSYLVANIA…AND WEST VIRGINIA…AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

A positive-tilt shortwave trough will sweep across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes today, while a surface low pivots northeast from the Great Lakes into Quebec. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from northwest OH into southeast TX by 00Z. To the east, a warm front will lift north across VA and into western NY and PA during the day.

Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend from TX into IN and OH, with mid to upper 60s F across the lower MS Valley and 70 F dewpoints near the Gulf Coast. East of the Appalachians, lower 60s F dewpoints will develop northward as far north as VA, MD and DE. Shear will be maximized from the Ohio Valley into the northeast in association with the upper trough, with the greatest relative severe potential there.

OH Valley into western NY/PA/WV

Height falls will occur during the day across the region, with increasing wind speeds and shear. Daytime heating and southwest surface winds will lead to sufficient instability to support afternoon severe storms from parts of the OH Valley northeastward into western NY/PA. Here, lift and low-level shear will be accentuated along the warm front, possibly supporting a few supercells with attendant tornado risk just ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, 40-50 kt mean wind speeds just off the surface, in combination with linear forcing along the advancing front will favor wind damage.

TX into the Lower MS Valley

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold front as it plunges south through the period. Given mid to upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front, substantial elevated instability will remain well north of the boundary as well as ahead of it. Sufficient mid to high level shear may aid hail production with cells even as they are undercut. Otherwise, any convection forming ahead of the front may also produce strong wind gusts, aided by modest southwest winds in the lower few km.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070604

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.

Carolinas into southeast VA

An upper shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes and across the Northeast by Sunday evening. Another weaker shortwave impulse will move across the TN Valley during the afternoon before emerging over VA/NC by early Monday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern extent of a warm sector across southeast VA into NC/SC. Modest surface troughing is forecast across the Piedmont, but low-level convergence is expected to remain weak. A surface front will not move much through afternoon, but with time will begin to develop south/southeast across the region during the evening.

Modest midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoint in the 60s will foster weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon into evening ahead of the surface boundary. While low-level flow will remain weak, southwesterly flow aloft will increase rapidly, leading to around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes (somewhat higher across southeast VA/far northeast NC). A couple of organized cells could develop and pose a risk for locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from northeast Texas into Mississippi.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070719

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from northeast Texas into Mississippi.

ArkLaTex to Mississippi

An upper low over northwest Mexico will begin to migrate east toward the southern Rockies/northern Mexico on Monday. Ahead of this feature, a subtle upper shortwave impulse will move from the southern Plains to the Southeast. This will allow enhanced west/southwesterly flow to overspread a moistening boundary layer across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle. However, forecast guidance suggests sufficiently steep lapse rates will be present to support at least modest destabilization. Favorable deep shear also should support organized updrafts if enough destabilization occurs within the warm advection regime. Given modest forcing mechanisms, storm coverage is uncertain. However, the overall environment should be at least conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms through Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the ArkLaTex into MS.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, March 11	15%
Day 6	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed

An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.

The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.

Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.

Day 6/Thu

Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.

Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, March 11	15%
Day 6	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed

An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.

The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.

Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.

Day 6/Thu

Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.

Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, March 11	15%
Day 6	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed

An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.

The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.

Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.

Day 6/Thu

Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.

Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, March 11	15%
Day 6	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed

An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.

The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.

Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.

Day 6/Thu

Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.

Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, March 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, March 11	15%
Day 6	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed

An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.

The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.

Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.

Day 6/Thu

Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.

Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, March 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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