Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, may impact parts of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120521
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…MUCH OF DELAWARE…ADJACENT EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, may impact parts of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon.
Discussion
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, which may have reached peak amplitude across the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies through much of the Canadian Prairies, a number of digging short wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to the evolution of a more prominent, positively tilted mid-level trough. This may encompass most areas near and east of the Mississippi River through the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Friday.
One leading short wave trough is generally forecast to turn east and northeast of the Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by late this afternoon, before undergoing considerable deformation as it progresses farther to the northeast. It appears that this may be accompanied by an initially modest surface cyclone, which may undergo notable deepening during the day while redeveloping to the east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, before occluding across the northern Mid Atlantic this evening.
Northern Mid Atlantic
Low-level moisture return inland of the coast appears likely to be rather limited. However, boundary-layer dew points increasing through the lower/mid 50s F, within a corridor along a warm frontal zone to the east of the surface low, may be sufficient to yield mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg when coupled with mid-level cooling (including 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22 C). Based on forecast soundings, this may include buoyancy rooted near and just off the surface, as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath the cold air and boundary-layer humidity remains relatively high along the frontal zone. Although low-level hodographs might not become more than modestly large, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, it appears at least possible that the environment could become conducive to the evolution of one or two supercell structures posing some risk for a tornado. Otherwise, stronger cells this afternoon may be accompanied by small to perhaps marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before weakening by evening.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120643
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. on Friday, as another upper-level trough moves into the western U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within very weak instability in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Additional storms will be possible along and just inland from the northern California and Oregon coasts. A few strong wind gusts will be possible, but no appreciable severe threat is expected due to the limited instability. Elsewhere across the continental U.S. thunderstorms are not forecast Friday and Friday night.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120743
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Saturday and Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Saturday and into the southern Plains Saturday night. Thunderstorms will be possible near the trough during the day from the Four Corners southeastward into the southern Rockies. As the trough moves into the southern Plains Saturday night, thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west and central Texas. If the ECMWF solution pans out, which is much faster and further south, increasing low-level moisture and instability during the overnight period could be enough for a few strong storms in the Texas Hill Country. If later models runs validate the ECMWF solution, a Marginal may need to be considered for parts of west-central and central Texas, mainly for Saturday night.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120800 SPC AC 120800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.
Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.
In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe potential is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 11/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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