Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur over portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado could occur across a small part of south-central/southwest Texas later today or tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161951

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur over portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado could occur across a small part of south-central/southwest Texas later today or tonight.

20z Update

The primary adjustment was to reduce wind probabilities across portions of the Northeast behind a leading line of convection attendant to a weak surface front. Falling temperatures and more stable conditions in the wake of this front should preclude additional thunderstorm development through the evening, though some lingering threat persists across parts of New England as convection continues to push east towards the Atlantic coast.

Mid-Atlantic

GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus across parts of southeast PA within a favorable environment for organized convection. Although guidance continues to suggest much of this activity will mature along and off the coast, some potential for severe wind, as well as large hail, is apparent based on latest RAP mesoanalyses and forecast guidance.

North Dakota

The 2% tornado risk probability line was expanded eastward along a surface warm front evident in visible imagery and surface observations. Warm and moist conditions and ambient low-level vorticity along this boundary may support some potential for brief tornadoes as thunderstorms begin to develop later this evening.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 07/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026/

Northern Rockies

A closed upper low will move slowly northward along the coastal Pacific Northwest through tonight. Upper ridging will persist across much of the Rockies to the Plains. Between these features, a belt of modestly enhanced south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern Rockies. Modest easterly low-level winds will transport generally 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints across this region beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. As daytime heating occurs, moderate instability should develop. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to initially form over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels and gradually strengthening flow aloft will support around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Organized cells will pose a risk for gusty winds and severe hail across much of the region. The greatest risk for 1+ inch hail appears to be across parts of western Montana.

Northern New England

A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly southeastward from southern Ontario/Quebec across New England today with strong west/northwest deep-layer flow. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited compared to prior days, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Still, somewhat greater daytime heating is expected to the north of the more prominent smoke plume across southern New England, which should help steepening low-level lapse rates by late morning/early afternoon. While MLCAPE will remain modest (around 250-500 J/kg), the strong low/mid-level westerly flow and steepened low-level lapse rates should support scattered damaging winds as low-topped convection spreads southeast from Quebec and across portions of northern New England through the afternoon near a secondary/weak front.

Mid-Atlantic

Enhanced west-northwesterly mid/upper-level winds will overspread the Mid-Atlantic today on the southern periphery of the mid-level shortwave trough moving across New England. A surface front is expected to sag southward through the day, approaching the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity by late afternoon. Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the surface front and beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates spreading in from the Ohio Valley. This, along with diurnal heating, will foster a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Furthermore, various NAM/RAP forecast soundings show 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and steep low-level lapse rates present south of the front. This environment would generally support organized cells/line segments. However, overall thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain given that stronger forcing for ascent should remain mostly north of the warm sector. Additionally, it is uncertain to what extent that smoke may continue to have a negative impact on an otherwise favorable environment for severe thunderstorms.

Northeast North Dakota/Northern Minnesota

A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate across the Canadian Prairies north of the prominent upper ridge over the Plains/Rockies, and through northwesterly flow aloft into parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. At the surface, a weak low and surface front will move across North Dakota into northern Minnesota during the evening and overnight hours. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moisture-rich boundary layer, supporting a narrow corridor of instability. NAM/RAP forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, but also increasing capping through the late afternoon/evening. Even so, most high-resolution guidance develops convection across southern Manitoba into northern North Dakota during the evening, spreading east/southeast across northern Minnesota overnight. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with this activity, and a tornado risk cannot be ruled out.

South-Central Texas

While low-level shear/SRH has weakened since last night, and ongoing convection remains extensive/repetitive, a northward drift of the MCV and potential re-establishment of stronger low-level winds later today into tonight could account for non-zero/brief tornado potential.

Arizona

Thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and southeast Arizona this afternoon/evening, and subsequently spread westward across portions of central/southern Arizona. Modest instability and steep lapse rates amid strong heating could support sporadic strong gusts.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the northern Great Lakes region.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID…AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the northern Great Lakes region.

Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over central SK/AB is forecast to move southeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes by the end of the period. Multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima may precede this shortwave within west-northwesterly flow aloft. A surface low is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day near Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through the Dakotas and MN. A remnant surface front initially draped from northern IL/IN into central WI is forecast to move northeastward as an effective warm front.

Details of convective evolution remain uncertain through the period across the region. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period near northeast MN and adjacent portions of Ontario, with other convection possible to the cool side of the effective warm front across WI. In the wake of morning convection, at least isolated diurnal storm development will be possible along the cold front, and also near its intersection with the effective warm front. Within the warm sector, moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat for organized cells/clusters, with a threat of hail and damaging winds. Any persistent supercell could also pose at least a brief tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the surface low and warm front. One or more storm clusters may evolve Friday night and move east-southeastward across the northern Great Lakes region, potentially posing an isolated severe threat.

No upgrade in probabilities has been at this time, due to uncertainties regarding recovery in the wake of morning convection across northern WI and Upper MI, and also regarding storm coverage along the cold front into eastern MN. However, Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) equivalent probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of the region.

Western MT/northern ID

A favorable thermodynamic profile is again expected across parts of western MT and vicinity on Friday, with steep lapse rates and MLCAPE potentially in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer flow may be somewhat weaker (compared to D1/Thursday) as a mid/upper-low moves well to the northwest, but backed surface winds and modest veering with height will still provide sufficient effective shear for occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms. Some guidance suggests potential for outflow-driven storm clustering, which may result in a corridor of locally greater wind potential, though this scenario remains uncertain at this time.

Parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast

A broad area of nebulous damaging-wind potential is expected to evolve from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast, mainly during the afternoon. Across the Ohio Valley vicinity, rich moisture and moderate buoyancy within a weakly capped environment will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Deep-layer flow/shear will remain quite weak, which should limit storm organization.

A similar thermodynamic environment will extend into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast. Weak northwesterly low/midlevel flow may allow for development of small southeastward moving clusters across parts of TN/MS/AL, though weak deep-layer shear should temper storm organization.

Due to the disorganized nature of any damaging-wind threat, wind probabilities have been withheld, though addition of probabilities across parts of the region is possible, if trends support any mesoscale corridors of greater threat.

Florida

Most CAM guidance suggests vigorous storm development just offshore of the FL Gulf Coast Friday morning, in association with a weak midlevel trough/low. The morning convection may tend to remain just offshore, but additional storm development is expected by afternoon across much of the peninsula. Weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty regarding mesoscale details precludes the introduction of wind probabilities, though localized strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Dean.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and vicinity

Some amplification of a mid/upper-level trough is expected over the northeastern CONUS on Saturday, as multiple shortwaves move through the base of the trough. The primary surface low is expected to deepen as it moves across southern Quebec toward northern Maine. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from western PA toward the Delmarva region is forecast to lift northeastward as a warm front through the period.

As deep-layer flow strengthens atop a richly moist and destabilizing warm sector, organized severe potential is expected to develop across a relatively broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, with at least an isolated threat potentially reaching parts of New England. Uncertainties include the influence of early-day convection and potential persistent smoke on the northeastward extent of substantial surface-based destabilization.

Along the cold front, the greatest relative threat is currently expected from the lower Great Lakes into eastern parts of the Ohio Valley, where stronger 850-700 mb flow (around 25-40 kt) is forecast. Organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind and isolated hail may evolve along/ahead of the front and spread eastward. Rich boundary-layer moisture and modest enhancement to low-level SRH may also result in some tornado threat, depending on storm-mode evolution. Favorable moisture/buoyancy will also extend westward along/ahead of the front into parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley, but there may be more of a tendency for convection to be undercut by the front with westward extent.

Farther south/east, organized convection may evolve or reintensify near the effective warm front by afternoon into parts of PA/NJ, and also develop into parts of MD/VA along/east of a surface trough. Very warm temperatures and steepening low-level lapse rates will become supportive of damaging-wind potential, and isolated hail may also occur. Some tornado threat could also evolve in closer proximity to the warm frontal zone.

An extensive frontal QLCS may develop by evening, and continue to pose some wind-damage threat for as long as it persists into Saturday night.

Northern Rockies vicinity

Compared to previous days, some drying from the west is expected across parts of MT on Saturday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across parts of BC/AB through the day. High-based convection is still expected from ID into southwest MT and vicinity, though relatively weak buoyancy and deep-layer shear should limit storm organization. Some overlap of stronger deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy is forecast to occur across parts of northern MT, but storm coverage within this regime is uncertain, with stronger large-scale ascent currently expected to remain north of the international border.

..Dean.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SPC AC 160902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next week.

Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas during the afternoon.

Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally, a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A 15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4 to account for this potential.

The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However, the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away, will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with this forecast.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 16

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 5%

Friday, July 17

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game