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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, December 12
Saturday, December 13
Sunday, December 14
Monday, December 15
Tuesday, December 16
Wednesday, December 17
Thursday, December 18
Friday, December 19

Outlook for Friday, December 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121254

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Discussion

Cold/continental trajectories especially east of the Rockies will generally preclude thunderstorm development. Regarding a potential exception, gradual low-level moisture return will continue to occur over the western Gulf toward coastal Texas ahead of a low-latitude trough over northern Mexico. Convection will probably develop and increase late tonight over the western Gulf, but modest forcing for ascent and marginal thermodynamic profiles aloft should limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas of Texas.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, December 13

Outlook Summary

Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Synopsis

The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south rapidly Saturday evening.

South Florida

Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe weather threat from this activity.

Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, December 14

Outlook Summary

A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120811

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.

South Florida

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall. Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday night.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, December 15

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 18 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 19 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120919 SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, December 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 18 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 19 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120919 SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 18 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 19 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120919 SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, December 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 18 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 19 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120919 SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, December 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, December 15 potential too low
Day 5 Tuesday, December 16 potential too low
Day 6 Wednesday, December 17 potential too low
Day 7 Thursday, December 18 potential too low
Day 8 Friday, December 19 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120919 SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 12
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, December 13
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, December 14
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 15
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 16
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 17
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 18
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 19
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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