Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of scattered occurrences of damaging wind with gusts up to 70 mph are expected across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley overnight. More isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts may occur over portions of the northern Plains. Strong to severe storms with a risk for damaging wind gusts may persist for another couple of hours in the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050053
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of scattered occurrences of damaging wind with gusts up to 70 mph are expected across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley overnight. More isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts may occur over portions of the northern Plains. Strong to severe storms with a risk for damaging wind gusts may persist for another couple of hours in the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley
Forcing for ascent attendant to a weak mid-level disturbance cresting the mid-level ridge is contributing to a couple of areas of thunderstorm activity this evening over portions of eastern IA and central WI. The 00Z DVN sounding is likely representative of the inflow air mass for these storms, featuring a moist boundary layer and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates with MLCAPE of around 4000 J/kg. It remains unclear whether a subset of the current storms will grow upscale into a cold-pool-driven MCS overnight, or whether additional storms will develop farther to the east across portions of southern Lake MI and southwest Lower MI in the next few hours. Either way, there is a consistent model signal for a bowing convective system to evolve across portions of northeast IN into OH, along the cool side of a composite surface boundary extending from central WI through central IN into eastern KY.
Regional VWPs and 00Z soundings indicate the presence of 30-35 kt northwest winds in the mid levels along the axis of the prospective MCS track, which will contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear for cold-pool organization. As such, a corridor of more concentrated wind damage appears possible along with severe gusts up to 70 mph.
### Northern Plains
A cluster of mainly elevated thunderstorms is ongoing this evening over north-central SD, with that activity likely rooted above a warm capping inversion observed by the 00Z ABR sounding. Additional storms are expected to develop overnight along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, where warm advection and moisture transport will be maximized. Mid-level flow and resultant vertical shear are forecast to weaken overnight owing to the proximity of the mid-level ridge. However, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and associated moderate to strong instability suggests the potential for isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. As such, 5% wind and hail probabilities have been included in this forecast update.
### Southern Mid-Atlantic
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing over portions of southeast VA into north-central and northeast NC will remain capable of mainly damaging wind gusts for the next hour or two. Thereafter, storms are expected to gradually weaken as the boundary layer stabilizes.
..Mead.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041703
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
Eastern Carolinas
A mid-level trough across the western Atlantic is forecast to retrograde slightly on Saturday with an associated surface front expected to move slowly southward from the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas. South of this cold front, a very moist airmass will be in place with strong instability, particularly across the eastern Carolinas. Farther west, downslope flow off the mountains may result in a more stable environment in the western half of the Carolinas. This signal varies within the guidance, and confidence is not high enough to lower probabilities across this area, but the greater threat should remain farther east where mid to upper 70s dewpoints and around 30 knots of shear amid a front and height falls aloft should support scattered strong to severe storms capable of mostly damaging winds.
Ohio Valley
Strong heating across eastern Kentucky and vicinity should provide an unstable and uncapped airmass by Saturday afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak across this region (~20 knots) and therefore, effective shear and storm organization is expected to be weak. However, strong heating and steep lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Saturday afternoon/evening. Some guidance shows these storms clustering and traversing the Appalachians and continuing into western Virginia and western North Carolina. The relatively weak shear, and potential for lesser instability due to downslope flow across the eastern Appalachians casts significant doubt on this potential.
Central to northern Plains
Most guidance shows ongoing thunderstorms within a warm-air advection zone across southeast South Dakota Saturday morning. Isolated large hail is possible with this activity during the morning hours before the low-level jet weakens and backs and these thunderstorms weaken by late morning.
As the mid-level ridge strengthens during the day Saturday, height rises will be present across much of the Plains. Despite this, upslope flow will develop across the central High Plains. Within this region, forecast soundings show moderate instability but weak mid-level flow. This will support some isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, but the lack of shear should limit the overall severe weather threat.
A more organized cluster of storms may develop across southwest Nebraska, but do not expect storm intensity to warrant higher severe weather probabilities.
After 00Z, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across the central/northern Plains. This could result in some isolated storm development during the overnight period into the Dakotas. Given the strong instability forecast across this region, these storms could contain large hail or damaging wind gusts.
North-central Montana
A mid-level jet streak on the eastern periphery of a mid-level trough across the Northwest will remain across Montana for much of the period on Saturday. Weak instability may develop as temperatures warm into the 70s across west-central Montana Saturday afternoon. Overall, moisture will be lacking (30s F dewpoints) which should limit the severe weather threat. However, there is some instability within a zone of moderate to strong shear. Therefore, one or two fast-moving strong storms may develop within this zone, but the overall lack of moisture/instability precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.
Southeast
Most guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Southeast during the day on Sunday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of a cold front across the region. The greatest instability is anticipated near the coast where low to mid 70s dewpoints are likely. Mid-level flow will be quite weak, which should limit overall storm organization. However, the combination of the mid-level shortwave trough and the frontal forcing amid an uncapped and strongly unstable environment should result in a cluster of storms capable of water-loaded downbursts. A Slight Risk has been added for the region where the greatest storm coverage is expected.
Northern Plains
The ridge across the Plains will start to break down on Sunday with a lee cyclone developing across eastern Montana. Moderate to strong instability will be present across the northern Plains, potentially with some stronger mid-level flow as the ridge breaks down. Storms will be possible along the trough from eastern Wyoming into northern Colorado, along the warm front near the Canadian border and into northern North Dakota, and extending into western Minnesota, and northwest of the low across eastern Montana where some instability is expected to develop. Within this broader area, there will likely be a few preferred zones that will eventually need a Slight Risk. However, at this time, it is unclear where these preferred zones will be. Greater resolution of the pattern evolution should make these regions more clear in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, September 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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