Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, June 1

Tuesday, June 2

Wednesday, June 3

Thursday, June 4

Friday, June 5

Saturday, June 6

Sunday, June 7

Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010603

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND THE MID-SOUTH

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

Synopsis

An upper low over the northern Rockies will remain roughly in place during the period. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into the central Rockies. Rich moisture will be present from the Ozarks into the Mid-South/Southeast.

Colorado into western Nebraska and western Kansas

Moderate mid-level flow is expected to persist across the central Rockies along the southeastern flank of the upper low. This flow will gradually diminish into southwest Kansas. With a surface low developing in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa, moist upslope flow will occur within the Front Range. Storms will initially develop within the higher terrain and progress east. Storms near the surface low will develop by late afternoon. Initial supercells can be expected with a large to very-large hail risk. Hail around 2 inches is more probable in northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska where upper-level flow will be stronger. A tornado or two will also be possible with initial discrete storms given the backed surface winds east of the Front Range. With time, upscale growth of activity can be expected, particularly in Kansas where strong heating will promote larger temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rates. Where clustering can occur, a greater severe wind threat will develop. Given the somewhat narrow corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy and enough deep-layer shear that may limit duration of linear organization, confidence is low in placement of greater wind probabilities.

Mid-South

Convection that is currently ongoing in eastern Kansas/western Missouri is expected to track south and east with time. Ahead of this activity, a reservoir of 70+ F dewpoints will exist across the Mid-South into parts of the Southeast. Depending on the timing of the convection, some strengthening of this activity can be expected into the afternoon. Mid-level flow across the region will not be overly strong, but around 30 kt of effective shear appears reasonable. Wind probabilities were increased within the Mid-South to account for the anticipated MCS. There still remains some question over the timing/placement of convection early this morning. Adjustments to the Slight risk may be needed depending on observational trends.

Arkansas

Model trends show potential for convection to develop along outflow and move into strong/extreme buoyancy in Arkansas. As in the Mid-South, timing of when this occur will play a role in the intensity of the activity, especially given the weaker shear with southwestward extent. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible with the strongest activity.

Northern Plains

Stronger mid-level flow around the upper low will be present in this region. Moisture/buoyancy will be more limited, however. Cold temperatures aloft will promote an isolated hail risk with storms that develop in the surface trough.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010727

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Northern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

Southern and Central High Plains

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia

An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon, which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010713

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

Northern Plains/Central High Plains

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Northern High Plains on Wednesday, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the Dakotas. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the central Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability over the eastern Dakotas by mid to late afternoon. Low-level convergence ahead of the front and large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development. Multiple small clusters of storms appear likely to move eastward across the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening.

Ahead of the front late Wednesday afternoon, forecast soundings from northeast South Dakota into southeastern North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This environment is expected to support supercells with large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with any organized cluster that can persist into the early to mid evening.

Further south across the central High Plains, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Although model forecasts suggest that large-ascent will remain weak, isolated storms could develop in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. By late afternoon, forecast soundings in the central High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. This would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 3	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 3	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 3	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 3	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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