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Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110557
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.
Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Ozarks/Southern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Tennessee Valley, where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Low-level convergence is expected to increase by early afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Additional storms may develop along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence from far northern Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee. As surface temperatures warm today, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range over much of this airmass, with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates, will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. The threat should be concentrated in the afternoon and early evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form this afternoon from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma. Moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe gusts, mainly in the late afternoon.
Southeast Arizona
A moist airmass will be in place over southern Arizona today with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop over much of southeastern Arizona, where SBCAPE should peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are expected to form along a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence near the Arizona and New Mexico state line, with storms moving westward across southeast Arizona. At 00Z, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells, especially if an organized line can develop.
Southern Appalachians to Atlantic Seaboard
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain and along zones of convergence will have potential for isolated severe gusts. The threat will be concentrated in the late afternoon as instability and low-level lapse rates become maximized.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Synopsis
The center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Sunday, encompassing much of the contiguous US. A weak, positively-tilted mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
At the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the aforementioned mid-level trough. At the start of the forecast period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low southwest into Arkansas before turning northwestward and extending into south-central/south-west Kansas. This boundary will push south through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.
### Much of South Carolina into East Georgia
Ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs and low 70Fs. The result will be around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE within a mostly uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached. Weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will favor single cells and multicell clusters. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates beneath the LCL and high precipitable water values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage. Given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also occur.
### Southern High Plains into the Southeast
To the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into the 90Fs to near 100F with dewpoints in the 60Fs and 70Fs. This will result in MUCAPE on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg. Strong diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds.
### Arizona
Steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. This region will be to the south of the strong CONUS-wide ridge with a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. This should allow thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of Arizona to move west into the lower desert. A deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west into southern and central Arizona.
### Upper Great Lakes
This region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a strengthening mid-level jet across central Canada. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 80Fs and low 90Fs with dewpoints temperatures in the mid 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs will result in strong instability during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be modest at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. Steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Forecast hodographs have modest curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly, realizing the totality of the low-level curvature.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern Florida into much of South Carolina.
Synopsis
The persistent CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered across the north-central US will begin to flatten and elongate on Monday as a strong mid-level trough moves across central Canada. As the mid-level ridge flattens/elongates it will place much of the southern US in easterly mid-level flow. This easterly mid-level flow will cause a weak mid-level trough across the Tennessee Valley to retrograde. This high-over-low pattern will feature a belt of enhanced easterlies stretching from the lower Great Lakes west into the Central Plains.
At the surface, a weak surface low over the southern Appalachians will redevelop westward toward Alabama during the afternoon. The combination of this surface low with a surface ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi Valley will result in northerly low-level flow across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and western parts of the Southeast.
### Northern Florida into much of South Carolina
As the surface low redevelops across Alabama on Monday, this area will experience southwesterly surface flow that will maintain a warm, moist airmass. Residual cooler mid-level temperatures (as compared to surrounding areas) associated with the weak mid-level trough and strong diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear remains weak across the area which should limit overall thunderstorm organization, favoring instead single cells and a few multicell clusters. A few heavy, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing sporadic wind damage.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 17 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.
### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England
Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.
### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic
Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.
Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 17 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.
### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England
Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.
### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic
Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.
Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 17 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.
### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England
Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.
### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic
Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.
Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 17 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.
### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England
Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.
### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic
Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.
Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
| Day 4 | Tuesday, July 14 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, July 17 | 15% |
| Day 8 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110900 SPC AC 110900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the CONUS-wide mid-level ridge centered over the north-central United States will build westward during the upcoming week in response to a series of mid-level troughs moving through central Canada. These troughs will help to carve out a seasonably strong trough across eastern Canada. By the end of the week, the US ridge will be centered over the Rockies with the eastern Canada trough centered over Quebec. The result will be a strong mid-level height gradient (and strong mid-level flow) stretching from the Upper Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and encompassing New England.
### Tuesday/Day 4 – New England
Multiple ensemble systems continue to support a favorable severe weather environment being in place across New England on Tuesday. Strong diurnal heating and southwesterly surface flow should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid-80Fs to perhaps low-90Fs by late afternoon ahead of a seasonably strong surface cold front. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoint temperatures should rise into the 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs, leading to MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon across Quebec and move into New England during the late afternoon before dissipating overnight. Strong vertical shear in excess of 50 knots will combine with strong instability to support severe thunderstorms. The most probable scenario is for one or more broken lines of storms to move across the region, with perhaps a few embedded supercells. All severe hazards seem possible at this time.
### Friday/Day 7 and Beyond – Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic
Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks.
Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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