Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151246
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the eastern Dakotas south-southwestward into the southern Rockies. A few disturbances will migrate eastward coincident with the trough with the most notable being over the central High Plains this morning. The aforementioned disturbance will move east reaching the mid-upper MS Valley with the trailing southern extent of the wave moving into the MO Ozarks and OK by daybreak Thursday. A weak diffuse low will move from northern KS to the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Farther east, an MCV near MO-IL will translate east and become perhaps a focus for storm activity later this afternoon across OH-PA. A rather complex forecast is apparent due in large part to considerable convection and related outflow permeating the warm sector overnight across much of the Slight-Risk area.
Iowa into the mid MS Valley
In the wake of showers/storms this morning from IA southward into MO, a moist and weakly capped airmass will destabilize through early afternoon. The eastward approach of the mid-level disturbance will likely contribute towards scattered thunderstorms developing 19-21z from near the weak low eastward along the composite outflow/frontal zone into IL-WI and southward into MO within a weakly capped warm sector. Forecast soundings show straight-line hodographs over IA with sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone. The potential for splitting supercells appears evident with the stronger storms capable of very large hail and perhaps some tornado risk across IA and northern MO.
Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas
Morning raobs showed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5-8 deg C/km) atop a seasonably very moist return-flow airmass. Models generally show storm development near the dryline by mid afternoon with initial development becoming supercellular. Large to very large hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Residual outflow from overnight convection moving into the Ozarks may play a role in enhancing low-level shear later today. Forecast soundings show somewhat limited low-level hodographs with a tendency for a veer-back-veer signature. Additional storms will favor some clustering and upscale growth with time due in part to the forecast hodographs. Nonetheless, all hazards will be possible at least through the early convective life cycle before the possibility for wind damage and linear structures perhaps evolve during the evening. ### Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast
The remnants of an overnight squall line are moving east across NY-PA this morning with a trailing outflow boundary extending westward into OH and northeast IN. Moist low levels and the eastward advection of steeper mid-level lapse rates will act to destabilize the southern Great Lakes into western PA through midday and into the afternoon. Forcing for ascent and enhancement of flow associated with the MCV will potentially focus thunderstorms and aid in their organization potential beginning this afternoon. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and whether a mesoscale corridor of higher tornado probabilities is needed (i.e., northeast OH). Will defer to later outlooks to where perhaps mesoscale corridors of greater wind/hail threat and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes could develop.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150516
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England. This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.
New York vicinity
Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime. Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of 30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at 500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.
Mid-South and Ohio Valley
Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS…MISSOURI…IOWA…AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.
Southern Plains to MS Valley
A robust upper trough will eject eastward from the northern High Plains and central Rockies to the Upper Midwest and central Plains on Friday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Flow at 850-700 mb around 40-60 kt will be common. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN to a low over eastern NE Friday morning. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest from the NE low into central KS, northwest OK and western TX. A warm front initially arcing across central IA into south-central IL will lift northward through the period ahead of the eastward-advancing surface low tracking across northern IA/southern MN into WI. A warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by midday, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints extending north into portions of eastern MN and WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km) will overspread this moist boundary layer, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization.
As strong ascent overspreads the aforementioned surface boundaries by mid afternoon, widespread thunderstorm development is expected. While initial supercells are possible given a favorable thermodynamic environment and supercell vertical wind profiles, linear forcing along the front combined with strong deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the initiating boundary may result in rapid upscale development into a QLCS, particularly from northeast KS/northwest MO into IA. A well-organized line of convection will pose a damaging wind risk along with possible QLCS tornadoes as convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening. If any discrete supercells develop, an all-hazards risk will also accompany that activity.
Further south across southern KS into OK, supercell development may be more probable, at least initially. Convection will initially develop along the dryline prior to the cold front overtaking this boundary later in the evening. Any supercells that develop and can maintain discrete characteristics will pose a risk for very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds. With time, the cold front will overtake the dryline during the evening and move southeast overnight. Linear convection is expected along the front, posing a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk during the nighttime hours.
Capping, weakening large-scale ascent and more modest vertical shear with southern extent may limit storm potential along the dryline in western/west-central TX.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, April 15
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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