Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Summary
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241952
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX
### SUMMARY
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
20z Update
Only minor adjustments were made to the existing severe probabilities as the forecast remains generally on track. See the prior discussion below for additional details.
Elsewhere, the General Thunder area was trimmed across portions of the northern Plains/upper Midwest in the wake of the passage of a surface cold front and accompanying precipitation.
..Chalmers.. 10/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026/
NM/Four Corners/Far West TX
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS ridging.
Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few strong/severe storms capable of hail.
Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will persist across area as well, supporting the potential for supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail greater than 2” in diameter is also more possible here. This region should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west Texas.
Eastern NM to far west TX
In advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and begin to weaken slowly. Height falls with the ejecting trough will brush the northwest side of a persistent plume of low-midlevel moisture over NM, along a slow-moving, northeast-southwest oriented baroclinic zone. Ascent along the baroclinic zone, in conjunction with surface heating in occasional cloud breaks and local terrain circulations, will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon from far west TX into eastern NM.
Midlevel lapse rates will be steeper closer to the ejecting midlevel wave (northwest of the surface warm sector), and more limited within the warm sector as a result of relatively widespread convection the past few days. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F will be enough for MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg despite muted surface heating with clouds. Vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some supercell potential. Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be the main threat, though low-level moisture and hodograph curvature suggest that an isolated tornado will also be possible.
Elsewhere
Isolated lightning flashes may occur early Sunday morning near the OR coast with low-topped convection as he midlevel cold core approaches. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across southeast FL in the moist northeasterly flow around the western periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas.
..Thompson.. 10/24/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.
Synopsis
A midlevel low now over the lower CO River Valley will eject east-northeastward Monday across KS/NE to IA/MN. A few thunderstorms will be possible along an associated baroclinic zone from the central Plains into the southern High Plains. Relatively larger buoyancy/steeper lapse rates and marginal deep-layer vertical shear are expected in the vicinity of far west TX, though confidence is too low to add an outlook area for isolated large hail at this time. Otherwise, an upstream shortwave trough will progress inland from OR to ID, where isolated lightning flashes will be possible with low-topped convection closer to the OR coast. Farther inland, there is some potential for isolated flashes as far east as ID during the afternoon/evening, but the magnitude of buoyancy is questionable enough to preclude an outlook area. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur with returning moisture to the middle and lower TX coast, and along the southeast FL coast on the western periphery of a closed low over the Bahamas.
..Thompson.. 10/24/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.
Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.
..Leitman.. 10/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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