Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, January 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171601
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Discussion
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
..Guyer.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171703
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday, and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However, negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm motions should further limit the duration of convection over land.
..Moore.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171905
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the country for Monday. An extensive cold/dry continental air mass and building surface high pressure over the central CONUS will promote dry conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Broad-scale upper ridging will persist along the West Coast, maintaining low chances for precipitation. A lightning flash or two appears plausible on the eastern shores of the lower Great Lakes where cold 850-700 mb temperatures may support mixed-phase hydrometeors within deep lake-effect snow bands. However, this potential seems too spatially limited and conditional to warrant broader 10% thunder probabilities at this time.
..Moore.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, January 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.
..Leitman.. 01/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, January 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, January 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, January 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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