Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, March 19

Friday, March 20

Saturday, March 21

Sunday, March 22

Monday, March 23

Tuesday, March 24

Wednesday, March 25

Thursday, March 26

Outlook for Thursday, March 19

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191146

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Synopsis

An upper ridge will remain over the southwest states today, with broad troughing over the east. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most areas today, with the only area of some risk being over southeast FL late tonight. Given the weak forcing, minimal CAPE, and unfavorable timing, 10% coverage of thunderstorms is not anticipated.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 20

Outlook Summary

A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190526

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.

Synopsis

An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest on Friday, with strong northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude upper wave will move from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low moving from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A cold front will extend from southwest Ontario into MO by 18Z, with southwesterly surface winds helping to bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints as far north as OH and western PA.

Marginal low-level moistening and daytime heating will lead to weak instability, which may support isolated thunderstorms developing within the warm advection zone into the Upper OH Valley and vicinity. Severe storms are not forecast due to the weak instability, however, veering winds with height and good deep-layer shear will support cellular activity, perhaps with very small/non-severe hail.

Elsewhere, the tail-end of the western Atlantic trough will maintain cool temperatures aloft over FL. This will support afternoon destabilization, with isolated activity near the eastern shores where localized surface convergence may develop.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 21

Outlook Summary

Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190529

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will exit the Northeast on Saturday, with a lobe of cool air aloft extending southwestward from the TN Valley into the Southeast. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over AZ/NM and into the southern Plains.

At the surface, a weak trough is forecast from the Mid Atlantic into the TN Valley, with surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s F. While lift will be minimal, daytime heating and sufficient instability may support isolated thunderstorms in association with the subtle southern wave. Severe weather appears unlikely given weak lift and marginal shear/instability.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, March 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, March 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, March 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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