Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, July 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions of Montana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141615
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW YORK…NORTHERN VERMONT…NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…AND MAINE.
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions of Montana.
New England
Morning water vapor imagery shows a belt of 80+ knot mid level winds nosing from eastern Ontario into Quebec, with mid-level height falls and large-scale forcing spreading into northern New England. This has been aiding in multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms over Quebec this morning, but so far this activity has struggled to make it into the US due to a more stable air mass. This will change through the day as a moist and moderately unstable air mass advects eastward into parts of New England ahead of the primary convective activity. Widespread smoke from upstream fires will also somewhat limit daytime heating today, although the extent of the cooling is uncertain.
Present indications are that several convective cells and clusters will track southeastward across parts of eastern NY, VT/NH and western ME later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in this region show favorable CAPE/shear combinations for supercell storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Larger bowing clusters may also evolve, with a greater risk of damaging winds. This activity may persist after midnight with a continued severe risk.
MT
A shortwave trough now over NV and its associated mid-level speed max will rotate northward into parts of ID/MT this afternoon and evening, aiding in the development of thunderstorms over the mountains. Storms are expected to spread northeastward into the Plains during the evening, with a risk of severe wind gusts in the strongest storms.
FL
Hot and humid conditions will lead to strong afternoon CAPE values and scattered thunderstorms over the central FL peninsula. Forecast soundings show slightly enhanced westerly flow around 700mb across this area, which may aid in occasionally damaging winds in the stronger cores.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast/New England
To the south of a persistent deep-layer cyclone east of Hudson Bay, another in a series of mid/upper shortwave troughs is forecast to move across parts of New England on Wednesday. A cold front (whose position will be influenced by D1/Tuesday convection) will move southward across the northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating is expected near/south of the cold front, with temperatures rising through the 90s F, and approaching 100 F in some areas. Amid this strong heating, moisture will be sufficient for moderate destabilization, while rather strong mid/upper-level northwesterly flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection.
While a zone of conditionally favorable environment is expected near the front, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage (if any) of diurnal storm development. ARW-based CAMs remain the most aggressive in developing isolated storms near the front during the afternoon, with most other guidance remaining muted at best. While confidence remains rather low, a Marginal Risk has been added for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic, where the relative greatest signal for isolated storm development overlaps the most favorable environment. Locally damaging wind may be the most likely threat, given the hot conditions and steep low-level lapse rates, though hail cannot be ruled out, with supercell-favorable shear and sufficient instability expected to be in place.
Across parts of Maine and vicinity, relatively low-topped convective showers (perhaps capable of sporadic lightning flashes) may develop during the afternoon, as the mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the region. Gusty winds could accompany this convection, due to the presence of steep low-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced low-level westerly flow. At this time, convection is expected to remain too weak and low-topped for an organized severe threat.
Farther west into parts of the Great Lakes, some guidance suggests potential for very isolated storm development, along the portion of the front that extends west-northwest from the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Large-scale ascent currently appears weak to negligible across this area, but the environment will otherwise be favorable for a localized damaging-wind threat, with steep low-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively favorable deep-layer shear. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in storm development across parts of lower MI/northern OH or points farther northwest.
Parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies
Scattered storms are again expected across parts of western/central MT and northern WY, in the presence of monsoonal moisture. Increased cloudiness and somewhat weaker diurnal heating (compared to D1/Tuesday) may tend to limit a more organized severe threat in the presence of modest deep-layer flow/shear, though locally strong storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of central/northern OR, where modestly stronger mid/upper-level flow will overlap the northern extent of appreciable destabilization.
..Dean.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 16
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
The closed mid-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will begin to lift north/northeast on Thursday. As it does, strong southerly mid-level flow will force height rises across the northern US Rockies and southwest Canada. These rising heights will allow the mid-level ridge across much of the US to redevelop northwestward –from the Midwest toward the northern US Rockies.
At the same time, the second strong mid-level trough this week will move across New England, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of seasonably cool and dry air. A surface cold front will push southward through New England, ending up in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic by Friday morning.
The airmass across much of the US, especially areas east of the Rockies, will be very warm and moist with afternoon temperatures generally 5-15 degrees above normal outside of areas with widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Mid-level flow will be generally weak across areas of the US with adequate buoyancy for thunderstorm development. Thus, the severe weather potential on Thursday remains too low to warrant unconditional severe weather probabilities.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, July 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, July 14
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, July 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, July 16
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, July 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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