Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161624
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and southern California today. These storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
Coastal Central and Southern CA
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent will continue across the region throughout the day, although a southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing band, or the development of a separate band farther south.
Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to produce lightning.
Coastal southwest OR and northern CA
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front moves through.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.
California
In the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across the Great Basin/Four Corners region, another strong trough will dig southeastward along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday, as a powerful mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the California coast. Ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection along much of the California coast, and also within parts of the interior valleys. The strongest low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern CA coast and valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern CA coastal region later Tuesday night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with low-topped convection across these regions. At this time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is expected to limit the organized severe threat. However, trends will continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system.
Missouri Valley/Midwest
The mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners region will eject rapidly northeastward and take on a negative tilt on Tuesday, reaching the central/northern Plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning. In response to this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across the northern High Plains, and then move across the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Great Plains.
Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above the surface could support elevated convection from very late afternoon into Tuesday night across parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. The signal for robust convection is currently muted, with the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but nonzero potential. With strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if deep convection can be sustained.
..Dean.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160811
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for thunderstorm development generally low.
Discussion
An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.
Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, February 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.
It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.
By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, February 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, February 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, February 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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