Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210535
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.
Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast
Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast, the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.
Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening hours.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210631
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts.
Discussion
A strong shortwave trough and attendant speed max over the Ohio Valley at the start of the period will quickly dig east/southeast during the day on Sunday, before pivoting north toward southern New England overnight. At the surface, a low, initially over the coastal waters of North Carolina, will deepen through the day as strong large-scale ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough. The rate of deepening of the surface low will only increase overnight as the shortwave trough takes on a neutral to negative tilt and large-scale ascent increases further.
As the surface low deepens along the coast, the intensifying warm conveyor belt to the north and west of the low, drawing warm, moist Gulf Stream air inland. The combination of strong large-scale ascent, strong low-level warm-air advection, and cooling mid-level temperatures may result in enough elevated instability to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt as the low lifts northward along the coast.
Farther south and west, the deepening surface low will drive a cold front south across the Florida Peninsula. Surface temperatures in the 70Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs may support a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of the southward advancing front. As a result, showers and a few thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show pronounced mid-and-upper-level warming, which will limit the overall instability and a more robust lightning threat.
Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection associated with the next upper-trough may lead to very isolated lightning strikes along and off the Pacific Northwest coast. However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need for delineation.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210800
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
Discussion
As the East Coast cyclone departs on Monday, a cool, dry airmass will settle over much of the country, suppressing thunderstorm activity.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, February 21
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, February 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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