Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large to very large hail.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271949

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…WESTERN KENTUCKY…AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large to very large hail.

20z Update

Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Marginal Risk back into southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma to account for storms initiating over the last hour.

The Moderate Risk remains unchanged with this update. The morning MCS is now moving through eastern Illinois/southern Indiana. Further west in Missouri and western Illinois, modifying remnant outflow remains near the St. Louis Metro. Cumulus south of this boundary across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, cumulus within the warm sector is deepening. Increasing MLCAPE/steepening lapse rates are nosing northward in southern central Missouri and south-central Illinois.

Just to the west of the Mississippi River, radar shows occasional attempts at initiation within the open warm sector. While the details continue to evolve, it likely that a corridor of conditional threat for strong-intense tornadoes will develop from the Missouri Bootheel into southern Illinois/western Kentucky. Within this region strong daytime heating has led to a volatile air mass, with moderate to strong MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear. VAD profiles frm PAH (Paducah, KY) and LSX (St. Louis, MO) indicate a rich SRH environment of around 200-300 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer. It is likely that supercells capable of all hazards, including strong-intense tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds. Will develop across this region soon. See MCD571 for additional information.

The conditional threat for strong tornadoes will extend as far south as the Arklatex into portions of western Tennessee. Through time, storm mode will shift to become linear with the southward moving front, which will bring an increase into the evening of damaging wind threat. Line embedded tornadoes, some of which may be strong, will continue to be a threat into the evening.

..Thornton.. 04/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley

Forecast scenario largely unchanged in that a very active severe-weather/tornado day is expected regionally, especially into late afternoon and this evening. Initially, a relatively long-lived linear cluster of convection persists at late morning across east-central/south-central Illinois, with additional initially elevated storms on its eastern/southern periphery, moving from eastern Illinois into Indiana, with severe hail and damaging winds persisting as early day hazards.

Over time, air mass will continue to moisten and rapidly destabilize along/south of the MCS-associated outflow from central Missouri into south-central Illinois. A mid/upper-level trough will eject northeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and middle Mississippi Valley through the period. Low-level mass response will encourage the primary surface low to consolidate across Minnesota/Wisconsin by this evening, with a warm front effectively delineated by the morning convection.

Strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with a 50-70 kt mid-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector by peak heating, and a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will both provide ample low-level and deep-layer shear to support supercells. Initially discrete surface-based development appears likely to occur into mid-afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South ahead of the surface cold front, and perhaps along weak low-level confluence zones in the open warm sector including generally near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers southward into the Mid-South.

These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of Missouri into Illinois along/near the effective front. This strong tornado potential will also likely extend farther south within the warm sector into the Mid-South.

By early evening, convection will probably tend to consolidate into clusters of supercells and then more linear segments with some increase in damaging wind potential aside from large hail and a continued multi-mode tornado risk tonight.

ArkLaTex into Texas

While storm coverage may trend lesser with southwest extent, the potential for at least isolated intense storms will exist across the region. Supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and occasional damaging winds are expected. Increasing low-level warm/moist advection tonight could foster additional robust thunderstorms along the retreating dryline and eventually the southward-moving cold front.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271744

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Southeastern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley

Within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the south-central Rockies toward the mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may move from TX toward the TN Valley and Southeast, to the south of the primary shortwave trough. These features will impinge upon a reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, resulting in a potentially active severe weather episode Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the region Tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse rate/buoyancy environment across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex. Strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by Tuesday afternoon, to the east of a dryline across TX, and along and to the warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast OK toward the mid MS Valley. Evolution of storm development remains uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained supercell. An increase in storm coverage should lead to development of storm clusters and potentially an MCS that would spread eastward into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible. Storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could persist through much of the night with any organized storm structures.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Summary

Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as from west-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE MID ATLANTIC…AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION

### SUMMARY

Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as from west-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

West-central TX into the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast

A substantial buoyancy reservoir is expected to persist from parts of central/south TX toward the lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Due to substantial early-week convection, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the potential for an ongoing isolated severe threat in the morning, and the location of the composite front/outflow and potential redevelopment during the afternoon and evening.

With favorable instability and deep-layer shear, the environment will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, including potential for large hail and locally damaging wind. Large-scale ascent is likely to be displaced north of the primary surface boundary and strongest instability, so storm coverage remains uncertain, but isolated supercells and/or small clusters will be possible along/south of the front. An increase in severe probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of this region, depending on observational and guidance trends regarding boundary placement and anticipated storm coverage.

Allegheny Plateau to the Mid Atlantic

A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. An attendant surface low will move from the upper OH Valley toward the Delmarva region, with trailing front extending southwestward into parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia by afternoon. The expectation for substantial early-day cloudiness and precipitation continues to result in uncertainty regarding potential for appreciable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, then favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear related to the approaching shortwave trough could support organized storms, with a threat of damaging wind and possibly some hail.

Due to the lingering uncertainties regarding destabilization, a broad Level 1/Marginal Risk is maintained with this outlook. An eventual increase in severe probabilities will be possible for parts of the region, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270843 SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States.

It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, April 27

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Tuesday, April 28

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, May 2

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, May 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, May 4

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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