Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, March 23

Tuesday, March 24

Wednesday, March 25

Thursday, March 26

Friday, March 27

Saturday, March 28

Sunday, March 29

Monday, March 30

Outlook for Monday, March 23

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to the coastal Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231615

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to the coastal Carolinas.

Coastal Carolinas/Georgia

A large upper trough continues to track eastward across the lower Great Lakes and into New England today, while the associated surface cold front sags across the southeast states. As the front approaches the more moist and marginally unstable offshore air mass, showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous. This process will occur late this afternoon, and might result in a strong storm or two along the immediate coast of NC before activity moves out to sea. Small hail or gusty winds are possible, but the overall severe threat seems too low to warrant probabilities at this time.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 24

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the central and north Florida.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the central and north Florida.

Synopsis

A surface cold front, now approaching the Piedmont, will move southward into FL and stall by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating/mixing along the stalled front, as well as local sea breeze circulations, will support the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms across central/north FL during the afternoon/evening. This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and the combination of buoyancy and vertical shear does not appear favorable for severe storms.

Otherwise, a midlevel shortwave trough will move over Vancouver/WA Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak buoyancy rooted aloft will be possible in the warm advection zone preceding the midlevel trough, and steepening low-level lapse rates will allow shallow buoyancy in the post-frontal environment late in the forecast period. Isolated lightning flashes could occur and this area will be re-examined in later outlook updates.

..Thompson.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 25

Outlook Summary

No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230713

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

No severe threat is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. The southern part of the trough will be over the Florida Peninsula, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon. Instability is forecast to be relatively weak across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday suggesting that storms will likely remain below severe limits. Elsewhere, no severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 26

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 26	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, March 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 26	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, March 28

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 26	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, March 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 26	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 26	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, March 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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