Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011937
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
20z Update
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required for the severe-risk area. Adjustments to the thunder line were made across east/northeast TX to account for recent convective trends where weak elevated thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak mid-level wave. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across the greater Texarkana region over the next few hours before gradually diminishing by late afternoon. See the discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/01/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/
Gulf Coast
A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late tonight.
Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless, transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for more details).
Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer. Severe storms are not expected with this activity.
Coastal Carolinas
A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z Tuesday.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.
FL Gulf Coast
A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over the eastern half of the US.
Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates offshore.
Outer Banks
As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward, the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.
..Lyons.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear unlikely.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 011918
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear unlikely.
Synopsis
Progressive mid-level flow will amplify and persist over the US Wednesday as broad troughing intensifies over the East. Weak ridging over the central US will be enhanced by an upstream trough over the Rockies and Great Basin moving toward the Plains into early Thursday. At the surface, a cold and dry air mass is expected over much of the country in the wake of a prior frontal passage. This front will continue south over much of the Gulf and off the coast of the Atlantic, as a second arctic front moves south over the central US.
The only exception to widespread offshore flow will be across portions of the western Gulf where the front will stall near the TX/LA Coasts. Ahead of the second upper trough, warm-air advection will support some southerly flow along the coast as a weak surface wave develops over the Gulf. Weak elevated buoyancy and ascent will support thunderstorm development across portions of southeast TX and southern LA Wednesday afternoon/evening into early Thursday morning. A stronger elevated storm or two with small hail is possible early Thursday, but given the limited buoyancy, a sustained severe risk appears unlikely.
..Lyons.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 6 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 7 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, December 2
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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