Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270454
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. today through tonight.
Discussion
Models indicate that an initially significant, and now occluding, cyclone will gradually weaken across Quebec today through tonight, as a weaker secondary cyclone also occludes across and north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. In mid-levels, it appears that large-scale troughing will be reinforced and undergo amplification while progressing into and across the Atlantic Seaboard, in response to a pair of initially digging short wave perturbations across and east of the Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a notable associated surface cold front is forecast to progress away from the Atlantic Seaboard, and through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
Within split westerlies emanating from the northern and mid-latitude Pacific, a pair of short wave impulses are forecast to dig inland across the Cascades and Canadian Rockies, downstream of building larger-scale mid/upper ridging. However, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained across much of the West, in addition to most areas east of the Rockies.
Florida Peninsula
Downstream of the amplifying large-scale mid-level trough axis, models continue to indicate that one area of developing large-scale forcing for ascent may overcome mid-level inhibition and support a couple of generally weak thunderstorms across the Lower Florida Keys into southeastern Florida coastal vicinities this morning into afternoon. In the presence of another developing area of large-scale ascent, weak destabilization may also support at least lower threshold probabilities for thunderstorms, ahead of the southward advancing cold front across interior central into east central coastal portions of the peninsula this afternoon.
Lower Great Lakes
Cold air overspreading the relative warm waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario may contribute to thermodynamic profiles increasingly conducive to convection capable of producing occasional lightning, particularly as temperatures cool below -20 to -25 C in the 700-600 mb layer this afternoon into tonight, based on forecast soundings.
..Kerr.. 11/27/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.
Central TX into southeastern OK
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a sustained severe risk is low.
..Lyons.. 11/26/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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