Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, August 20

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201955

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible late today into tonight with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin. Scattered damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Deep South this afternoon into the early evening.

20z Update

The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and recent guidance. Regional radar mosaics show the development of discrete and semi-discrete supercells across the northern MD into southern PA ahead of a mid-level perturbation and weak cold front. The recent 18 UTC IAD sounding sampled modest buoyancy (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), which seems to be more marginal compared to recent RAP mesoanalysis MLCAPE depictions. Nonetheless, strong shear was sampled by this RAOB, including just under 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. This environment likely exists downstream into far southeast PA and western NJ and warranted a slight northward expansion of the CIG1 tornado contour. Confidence in convective coverage with southwestward extent into southern VA and NC remains limited based on trends in radar/satellite trends and latest high-res guidance. Other forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track.

### Northern MS/AL

Convection is developing along/ahead of a weak surface front and mid-level wave across southeast AR into northern MS. This aligns well with recent guidance, especially RRFS solutions, which depict increasing thunderstorm coverage through early evening. Wind and hail probabilities have been adjusted slightly across northern AL/southern TN to reflect these solutions and capture areas where air mass recovery continues.

Northern MN

A surface low is becoming apparent in surface observations and GOES visible imagery across northern MN with early stages of convection noted over the past 45 minutes. With 64-66 F dewpoints spreading north towards north-central MN, some potential exists for more robust convection than previously depicted by guidance. Recent RRFS/HRRR time-lagged ensembles have also trended slightly north with the strongest UH signals, which matches these recent observations and warranted a northward expansion of probabilities.

Elsewhere, the forecast outlined below remains on track. See MCD #2053 for additional short-term details regarding the near-term severe threat across north-central NE.

..Moore.. 08/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026/

Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic

Radar mosaic late this morning showed a couple of weak convectively related vorticity maxima moving east across the central and southern Appalachians (i.e., southwest PA, eastern KY). One of these lead disturbances was sampled by the WSR-88D VAD at Jackson, KY, with an upstream shortwave trough over the OH Valley moving towards the Mid-Atlantic states.

The airmass across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas will continue to heat amid patchy but thinning cloud cover. Model guidance shows moderate buoyancy developing by early to mid afternoon from the southern Appalachians northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. A belt of stronger 700-500 mb westerly flow (30-45 kt) will overspread the northern half of VA northward into PA/NJ. Beneath this stronger flow, southerly low-level flow veering and strengthening with height will support hodographs favorable for organized severe storms, including supercells and organized line segments. The latest model guidance shows a few simulated supercells developing in the area centered over MD and the upper Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the 20-00z timeframe. This scenario seems plausible given some low-level enlargement to the hodograph and effective shear around 40 kt. A tendency for upscale growth into a line segment is expected as this activity moves east towards the coast during the evening. A couple of supercell tornadoes are possible with this activity, in addition to a line-embedded mesovortex and scattered damaging gusts.

Carolinas into the TN Valley and lower MS Valley

Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will result in an unstable airmass from the Carolinas into much of the Southeast. Low-level convergence along a cold front that will extend from the western Carolinas into AR this afternoon will result in scattered thunderstorm coverage as 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE develops by mid afternoon. High PW (in excess of 2 inches) and steep 0-3 km lapse rates and modest westerly to west-northwesterly flow will favor damaging downbursts with the stronger southeast-moving clusters.

Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley

A tongue of relatively rich low-level moisture (mainly 60s F surface dewpoints) will extend from the central Great Plains northward ahead of a cold front, which is forecast to be draped from western MN into western NE this afternoon. Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated first across the Upper MS Valley before expanding southwestward.

Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs, and the threat for all severe hazards. Large to very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inch diameter) will be the primary severe hazard, particularly during the early evening as the storms move into greater instability. Isolated strong to severe gusts (i.e. 55 to 75 mph) are possible as well. Given the supercellular storm mode and low-level southerly flow, a low-probability tornado risk also exists. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.

AZ

Not much change from prior forecast thinking in that isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast but a generally lower risk for severe gusts is anticipated later today into this evening. Steep lapse rates and inverted-V profiles will support an isolated risk for severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, August 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest and Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest and Southeast.

Central Plains

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the region on Friday. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will shift east across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley. A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will be in place within east/southeast low-level flow across portions of KS/NE ahead of a west-to-east oriented surface boundary. Moderate to strong instability is forecast by late afternoon into evening, supporting widely scattered thunderstorm development near the surface boundary. Vertically veering wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster could develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS. Some potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph) will be possible given large instability and steep low-level lapse rates.

It is uncertain how far south the severe risk will persist into the overnight hours. Forecast guidance, including CAMs, vary considerably, but some potential could spread into parts of northern OK late Friday/early Saturday. For now, have extended the Marginal risk southward across KS to account for conditional severe potential.

IA/WI/IL

Northwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase on Friday as an upper trough deepens over the Midwest. Cooling aloft will also result in areas of steepening midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong destabilization across portions of IA into northern IL and southern/eastern WI. Vertical wind profiles will support supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong wind gusts. The southward extent of the risk into central IL is a bit uncertain, but some risk could persist into late evening.

Southeast/Carolinas

A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place in the vicinity of a surface trough Friday afternoon. Strong heating and weak confluence will aid in thunderstorm development along the surface trough and higher terrain. Sufficient storm coverage could result in clustering/forward propagating as storms move eastward through the afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, weak vertical shear will limit overall organization, but sporadic severe/damaging gusts could occur from wet microbursts within the unstable/high PW airmass.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, August 22

Outlook Summary

Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the Northwest on Saturday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201915

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES…AND THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the Northwest on Saturday.

Midwest

An upper trough will dig and pivot southeast across the region on Saturday. At the surface, a front will extend from Lower MI to southern IL at the start of the period, with the boundary tracking east/southeast across the Ohio Valley through early Sunday. Ahead of the boundary, 60s F surface dewpoints beneath cooler midlevel temperatures will support moderate destabilization by afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the surface boundary and spread southeast through evening. This activity will pose a risk for marginal hail and strong wind gusts.

Northern Rockies

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Saturday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly flow and cooling aloft over much of the region. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected. A deeply mixed boundary layer beneath strengthening flow aloft will support strong outflow winds with this activity. Small hail could also occur with stronger cells.

Lower MO Valley to AR/Mid-South

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Saturday. A surface front will drop southward across MO/IL into the Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, and moderate to strong instability is forecast. Some forecast guidance suggests a remnant MCV or outflow from prior convection could focus thunderstorm develop along the sagging surface front. Where the greatest coverage of thunderstorms occurs remains highly uncertain. If confidence increases in subsequent outlooks, wind probabilities could be needed for portions of the region.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, August 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.

To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.

Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.

To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.

Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.

To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.

Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.

To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.

Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200829 SPC AC 200829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will move slowly across the Northeast Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with thunderstorms likely ahead of a cold front. This front will likely push offshore on Mon/D5 as a surface low ejects northward across Quebec. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front across the Mid Atlantic and into New England, though ongoing rain and thunderstorms reduce predictability as far as how unstable it will become on Sun/D4. Also mitigating overall severe risk appears to be relatively modest low-level wind speeds, with 10-20 kt at 850 mb. These areas will be monitored for possible low severe probabilities in the coming days.

To the west, low severe probabilities are possible over parts of the northern High Plains, as a small but progressive shortwave trough moves out of the Northwest and across the northern Rockies atop the upper ridge. West to northwest winds across the northern High Plains combined with a lee trough and ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should support at least isolated hail/wind activity, perhaps from eastern MT into the Dakotas.

Additional storm potential, generally low-end, will be possible Tue/D6 into Wed/D7 over much of the Midwest to Great Lakes, though predictability is quite low in forecasting the track of the northern wave, which may begin phasing with a developing upper low over Ontario.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 20

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Friday, August 21

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, August 22

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, August 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, August 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game