Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271157
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX.
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.
Southeast NM/Far West TX
Broad cyclonic flow is present today over the western half of the CONUS, with west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies. Weak but persistent southeasterly low-level winds have aided in maintaining surface dewpoints near 60f along and east of the Guadalupe Mountains. This small zone will become at least moderately unstable by evening, with consensus of morning CAMs showing the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. Coverage of convection will be low due to weak forcing aloft. Nevertheless, a storm or two could produce large hail.
..Hart/Dean.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270520
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley
A midlevel trough will move from the High Plains to the Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow across the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley atop modestly increasing boundary layer moisture. Vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt typically could support supercell thunderstorms. However, surface-based thunderstorm develop appears quite conditional. Surface dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will be possible ahead of a surface boundary from southern MN into western IA and far eastern NE. Cool temperatures atop the modest boundary layer moisture will support MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Near neutral height tendencies are expected, and forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates and possible inhibition in layers between the surface and 750 mb. Furthermore, 00z HRRR/RRFS and HREF/REFS do not show a robust signal for sustained convection within the more favorable warm sector. While elevated storms could pose a risk for small hail, the overall risk appears limited in the absence of surface-based storms, precluding severe probabilities at this time. Depending on trends, probabilities could be included in subsequent outlooks.
Far SW TX vicinity
Isolated thunderstorms may develop near higher terrain within a modest upslope flow and low-level warm advection regime late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s will aid in modest destabilization as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/low 80s F. Deep-layer flow is expected to be weak, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-25 kt effective shear magnitudes. A couple of storm could briefly become strong and produce gusty winds given steepened low-level lapse rates or small hail. Overall, severe potential appears too limited to include probabilities.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270629
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of NM/TX and into the Plains on Thursday as a midlevel shortwave trough moves across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Deep-layer southwesterly flow is expected to remain modest, and any stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern tier of the U.S. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s dewpoints across the southern Plains toward the Lower MO Valley vicinity. This will support a band of modest destabilization from eastern NM into KS on the nose of stronger low-level warm advection. However, the area of any appreciable destabilization is expected to be displaced from the modest large-scale ascent provided by the ejecting southern stream shortwave. Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270743 SPC AC 270743
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.
Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.
..Leitman.. 10/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, October 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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