Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, June 12
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of hail and severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the south-central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120559
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS…MID ATLANTIC…AND NORTHEAST…AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of hail and severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the south-central High Plains.
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across Quebec later today, with weak midlevel height falls forecast to extend south of this shortwave into parts of the Appalachians, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. The strongest deep-layer flow will remain north of the international border, but modest effective shear (generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating and modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps isolated hail.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern Mid Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds from afternoon into at least the early evening.
South-central High Plains vicinity
Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest westerly mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-35 kt, conditionally supportive of organized convection. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle, but eventual storms may develop by late afternoon near the higher terrain, and spread east-southeastward with time.
Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet will support some upscale growth during the evening, with an attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts of the south-central High Plains.
Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of central/eastern NM into Far West TX, with a threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts.
Upper Midwest
Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon from the eastern Dakotas into MN, as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Robust west-northwesterly flow aloft will conditionally favor some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can develop. However, most guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg, with an inconsistent signal for where the deepest convection might develop. Some threat for marginal hail and/or locally damaging wind could evolve across some part of this region, and probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding sufficient destabilization and storm coverage.
Parts of NE into western IA
Elevated convection may develop late in the period from parts of NE into western IA, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a warm front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS development to the south across KS) and coverage of storms prior to the end of the forecast period. Effective shear will be sufficient for at least modest storm organization and an isolated hail threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur. The aforementioned uncertainties and likely very late timing of any severe threat preclude the addition of hail probabilities at this time.
Parts of OK/north TX
In the wake of morning convection, robust redevelopment cannot be ruled out across parts of OK/north TX, near a outflow-influenced surface boundary. Guidance varies substantially regarding the coverage/location of storms through mid morning, resulting in considerable uncertainty. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could result in localized hail/wind potential, but confidence in boundary placement and diurnal storm coverage is too low for probabilities at this time.
..Dean/Weinman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, June 13
Outlook Summary
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120557
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.
Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK
Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS, MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.
Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.
Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent outlooks.
Lake Michigan Vicinity
Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg. Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.
Southern Plains vicinity
A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few instances of hail also are possible.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, June 14
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120653
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX by mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity.
Mid-Atlantic
Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However, degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day 2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.
Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex
Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, June 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 19 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue
A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.
Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest
A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.
Day 8/Fri
Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.
..Leitman.. 06/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, June 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, June 13
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Sunday, June 14
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, June 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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