Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Sunday, June 28

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211610

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

MO/IL/IN/KY

A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details.

MO/KS/OK/AR

In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur.

NE/CO/KS

Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening.

..Hart/Moore.. 06/21/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

A series of perturbations, embedded within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast, to the south of an upper low tracking from eastern Ontario into southern Quebec. Farther west, separate vorticity maxima will overspread the northern and central High Plains, in tandem with a belt of strengthening mid-level winds.

In the lower levels, a 40-50 kt low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to migrate from the Allegheny Plateau into the lower Hudson and DE River Valleys Monday afternoon, ahead of a surface low developing toward those same areas. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance south through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Ozark Plateau, with the western extension of the boundary linking with a secondary low over western TX. Elsewhere, a lee cyclone is expected to deepen over eastern WY, along a weak front settling southeast through the northern High Plains.

### Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians

12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the remnants of an overnight (Sunday night/early Monday morning) MCS overspreading NY and PA, within a zone of warm air and moisture advection occurring with the terminus of the LLJ. To the south/southeast of that convection across the lower Hudson and DE River Valleys, modest air mass destabilization is expected, with comparably stronger instability with southward extent into the central/southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen through the day as a belt of 40-50 kt winds at 500 mb overspreads the region from the west.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage and intensity during the afternoon from the vicinity of the outflow or differential heating boundary in eastern PA south/southwest into the southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard owing to steepening low-level lapse rates and high moisture content, which will enhance wet-microburst processes. A relatively narrow corridor of potentially greater tornado potential may materialize from the DelMarVa into the DE River Valley, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. However, given uncertainties in the degree of air mass destabilization in the northern extent of that area, the 2% unconditional tornado probability will be maintained. A separate area of tornado potential may materialize Monday afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians within the southwest extension of the LLJ, where a number of the 12Z CAMs indicate updraft-helicity swaths embedded within a linear complex of storms.

### Northern and central High Plains

The deepening lee cyclone will enhance the flux of an increasingly moist low-level air mass into the high terrain, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, supporting moderate afternoon instability. Greatest storm coverage is expected across portions of eastern MT and western ND Monday afternoon within the northern extent of the instability axis, where the strongest forcing for ascent is expected. Weaker forcing with southward extent is expected to lead to more widely spaced storms in eastern WY and CO. Here, comparatively stronger instability and vertical shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two during the afternoon and evening hours.

### Southern Plains

Areas of storms ongoing Monday morning across parts of the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex region are expected to gradually weaken by midday, owing to rising mid-level heights across the region. In the wake of that activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon in the vicinity of the stalled synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. However, considerable uncertainty remains in surface-based storm development given the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent. As such, the low unconditional probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. On the condition surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the parameter space would support intense supercells capable of large to very large hail and some tornado threat.

..Mead.. 06/21/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210723

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Synopsis

A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday.

Central High Plains into the central Plains

Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat.

Upper Midwest

A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms.

Southeast

A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 24	15%
Day 5	Thursday, June 25	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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