Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071941
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight.
20Z Update
No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight. While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50 mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall severe risk.
..Weinman.. 10/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/
Central portion of the Florida Peninsula
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile (sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this outlook update.
Northern New York
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the boundary layer.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Summary
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. for Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071715
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. for Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
A generally zonal belt of stronger westerlies is likely to persist into and through this period across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. Within this regime, broad mid/upper troughing is forecast to continue shifting east of the lower Great Lakes through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. Forcing for ascent associated with an embedded short wave trough may support renewed cyclogenesis across eastern Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador, with an initial trailing cold front advancing offshore of much of the northern through middle Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night.
Upstream, cyclogenesis also appears likely to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, in advance of larger-scale mid/upper troughing digging across and inland of the British Columbia coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by deepening surface troughing to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the northern and central Great Plains, by 12Z Friday.
High boundary-layer moisture content remains confined to the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, and is not likely to appreciably return northward. However, a corridor of modest low-level moisture may linger along a stalling to northward returning segment of the frontal zone across the central Great Plains into middle to lower Missouri Valley. Even so, latest model output suggests that this will probably remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, with little support for the initiation of thunderstorms, aside from, perhaps, better moisture return within a corridor of strengthening lower/mid-level warm advection across Iowa late Thursday night into early Friday.
In the wake of the initial surface cold front, across parts of the lower Great Lakes region into northern New England, fairly significant cooling in the 700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to contribute to scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity.
In lower-latitudes, convection-allowing guidance suggests that modestly cool mid-levels, in the wake of digging upper-level troughing across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to scattered diurnal thunderstorm development across parts of the Four Corner’s states into Rio Grande Valley.
Downstream of the digging upper troughing, and a potentially strengthening hurricane (Isaias) slowly migrating northeastward across the southwestern Gulf Basin, scattered thunderstorm activity will remain possible within the lingering high moisture content air near northeastern Gulf coastal areas, and across portions of the Florida Peninsula, Thursday through Thursday night.
..Kerr.. 10/07/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 9
Outlook Summary
A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.
Discussion
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing will undergo substantive further amplification across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest. Downstream ridging is forecast to build from the lee of the northern Rockies through the upper Great Lakes/northwest Ontario vicinity, with large-scale troughing to the east continuing slowly eastward across New England and the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.
In the wake of the lead troughing, the building center of cool surface ridging is forecast to shift from the upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic Friday through Friday night. At least initially, it appears that the south to southwestern flank of this ridging will nose through much of the south Atlantic Coast into eastern Gulf Coast states.
At the same time, Isaias is forecast to approach and migrate inland of the northeastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, in advance of high-level troughing which models suggest will begin accelerating northeast of the Texas coastal plain vicinity by early Friday. Model spread remains sizable concerning this trough and the track of the tropical cyclone, however.
Northeastern Gulf Coast
Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for the latest NHC forecast track of Isaias. Based on the accelerating northward motion of this system, evolving hodographs and forcing for ascent conditionally most conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes could become focused well to the north-northeast of the cyclone center. This may begin overspreading coastal areas by early Friday evening, if not earlier. Even as this shifts northward, well inland of coastal areas, it is possible that hodographs, at least, will remain conditionally supportive of a continuing risk for supercells with tornadoes as far south as areas near/west-northwest of the Florida Big Bend through daybreak.
The primary uncertainty with regard to the risk for tornadoes concerns a preceding influx of potentially cool/stable boundary-layer air as far south as coastal areas, which may remain inhibitive through the period. Based on 07/12Z NAM (with a track similar, but perhaps slower than the official forecast track) forecast soundings, low-level thermodynamic profiles do not become conducive to an appreciable risk for tornadoes until late Friday night, generally near/northwest of the Florida Big Bend. This may be in the wake of the better large-scale forcing for ascent.
..Kerr.. 10/07/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 10 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, October 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, October 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, October 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, October 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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