Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051953
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas.
20z Update
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
Upper Midwest
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front. Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe threat is expected to remain low.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051653
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.
Synopsis
An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific Northwest late in the period.
At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening. Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051833
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Synopsis
Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050848 SPC AC 050848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat.
Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050848 SPC AC 050848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat.
Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050848 SPC AC 050848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat.
Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050848 SPC AC 050848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat.
Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, April 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050848 SPC AC 050848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5
From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level trough will move from the High Plains into the Great Lakes, as a large area of surface high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. Along the western edge of this feature on Thursday, low-level moisture advection is forecast from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this returning airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe storms would be across parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet ramps up in the evening. Uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any potential severe threat.
Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8
Moisture advection is forecast to continue on Friday over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to stall in the central Plains, which would be a focus for thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered storms are also expected on Friday along and to the east of a dryline in the southern High Plains. An isolated severe threat would be possible in areas that sufficiently destabilize. The potential for severe storms should continue into Saturday and Sunday over the southern and central Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the region. At this time, model spread is substantial concerning the magnitude and spatial distribution of instability. The models also vary widely on the timing and amplitude of the shortwave trough. For these reasons, will hold off introducing a threat area until the models can show better agreement.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, April 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, April 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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