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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today and tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041300

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today and tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two will be possible.

Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley

A compact mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor satellite imagery this morning over the central High Plains will move eastward towards the Mid MS Valley by tonight. As this occurs, a narrow swath of around 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of the southern Plains to lower OH Valley. Large-scale ascent should remain modest with this system, resulting in only a weak surface low developing northeastward along a quasi-stationary surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing into generally the low to mid 60s. This increasing moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability should develop across north-central into central TX where stronger daytime heating is expected.

Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest in closer proximity to the mid-level jet and surface front from eastern OK into AR, southern MO, and the lower OH Valley. Effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt will easily support organized convection across these areas. However, convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the surface front. Additionally, ongoing elevated convection this morning across the northern OK/southeast KS vicinity and related cloudiness may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization downstream. Farther south into north/central TX, weaker deep-layer shear may limit updraft organization to some extent.

Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists today and tonight. An isolated hail threat should persist with ongoing elevated convection this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into MO and southern IL. By this afternoon, surface-based thunderstorm development should occur closer to the surface front. A mix of supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any sustained supercells/clusters near the surface boundary.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040656

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon, convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas during the evening.

Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the overnight period.

Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central Iowa

Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are expected develop across the region starting in the late evening, with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040845

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SUMMARY

SUMMARY

Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.

Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley

A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms. Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet further south during the late afternoon, which will be more favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line segment.

Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley

Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line, especially with bowing segments.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, March 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, March 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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