Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic .
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141239
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible from parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic .
Southern Plains/Southern High Plains
Early morning surface observations and regional radar imagery show a wavy outflow boundary from southern IL across southeast MO, northern AR, and eastern/central/southwest OK into the TX South Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this outflow, but predominantly south of the primary cold front that extends from the northern TX Panhandle east-northeastward across northwest and north-central OK and then northeastward through southeast KS, central MO, and northern IL. Southerly low to mid-level flow is expected to persist throughout the day, and the associated warm-air advection across the outflow boundary will likely result in showers and thunderstorms continuing from the TX Panhandle eastward across western and central OK for most of the day. Southward progression on the outflow will slow this morning, with the boundary eventually returning northward as a warm front later this evening. The cold front is forecast to remain stationary for much of the period.
When and where the outflow boundary ends its forward progression is uncertain, which introduces uncertainty regarding where the best severe potential will exist today. The portion of the outflow boundary across the southern High Plains appears to already have lost much of its character, so there is relatively higher confidence in the location of the severe potential across that region. Expectation here is for daytime heating to destabilize the airmass east of the stalled outflow where temperatures could reach the mid 80s amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear from 40 to 50 kt will support initial supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Upscale growth into one or more linear bowing segments is possible with time. Primary threat will transition to damaging wind gusts as this occurs.
A more complex and uncertain scenario exists farther north from northwest TX into east-central/southeast OK. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along and south of the outflow boundary. The strongest buoyancy is expected across south-central/southeast OK where mid 70s dewpoints will remain in place. As previously mentioned, the outflow is expected to retreat back northward as an effective warm front later this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are possible as this occurs as well as later this evening as eastward-progressing linear clusters move into this moist and unstable airmass. A strengthening low-level jet will support a low-probability tornado risk with any more cellular warm sector development this evening, particularly across southwest into south-central OK where vertically veering profiles are anticipated.
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast MO and southern IL are forecast to continue eastward today. Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. The ongoing storms may intensify, with an increase in coverage possible as well. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts into evening.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140521
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough over central Canada Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. That pattern evolution will yield a steadily strengthening deep-layer wind field over the mid-MS and OH Valleys through the forecast period. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a warm front from central or eastern KS through the mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains, Ozark Plateau, and mid-MS Valley.
### Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and within a zone of low-level warm advection and the possible influence of a lead disturbance moving through the region. A subset of the morning storms is likely to continue through the remainder of the day with convective outflow and clouds limiting air mass destabilization in those areas.
A relatively narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be advected into the northern extension of the system warm sector, contributing to MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon in areas peripheral to active convection. A subsequent increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity is expected at that time from east-central MO into central and southern IL. The presence of 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of transient supercell and bowing structures capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two through the evening.
The duration and eastward extent of the damaging wind threat remain in question Thursday night in the mid to upper-OH Valley. Model soundings indicate a shallow, near-ground inversion developing within the warm sector as the surface low outpaces better low-level moisture return. However, widely spaced damaging wind gusts may still remain possible given the presence of 40-50 kt winds within the lowest km above ground.
### Southern Plains/Ozark Plateau
A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and/or small hail appear possible Thursday afternoon and evening along the cold front progressing through the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates, weak low-level winds, and deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the progressive/undercutting front are likely to lead to outflow-dominant, disorganized convective modes, limiting severe weather potential.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140718
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An intense trough and associated 90-100 kt midlevel jet are expected to progress from the Great Lakes and mid-MS Valley Friday morning to the Appalachians by late Friday night/early Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes to the Gulf of St. Lawrence while a trailing cold front advances through New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southeast, excluding central/south FL.
### Mid-Atlantic
Early-day showers and thunderstorms appear probable across portions of the region, especially north of the Mason-Dixon line. Clouds and areas of precipitation may linger into the afternoon at some locations, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F is expected to yield at least marginal instability within the warm sector. That air mass destabilization will coincide with increasing height falls aloft, likely yielding an uptick in storm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. The presence of a strongly sheared environment will be supportive of organized storm modes with an associated risk for isolated damaging wind gusts into the evening.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday
An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.
### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday
There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
..Mead.. 10/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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