Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260037
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely tonight.
01z Update
Stubborn upper ridge is holding firm across the southwestern US/southern Rockies early this evening. As a result, stronger flow is forced across the northern tier of states along with most meaningful short-wave troughs. Midlevel height field is being suppressed a bit across the northern Rockies/high Plains and a few thunderstorms have developed across eastern MT where lapse rates are steep, but MUCAPE is very weak. This activity should become even more isolated with loss of daytime heating.
Warm advection is expected to contribute to weak elevated convection across portions of the Midwest tonight as profiles gradually moisten in the 2-3km layer due to a modestly strong but veered LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest any hail that develops with this elevated activity should remain below severe levels.
Isolated convection that is currently noted across portions of the central FL Peninsula should continue to weaken over the next few hours as the boundary layer cools. Lighting threat should focus offshore by mid evening.
..Darrow.. 03/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Mid-MS/OH Valleys
Several shortwave impulses are expected to migrate through initially zonal/low-amplitude westerly flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes region through late afternoon. Stronger height falls will occur across the region after 00z as a midlevel shortwave trough deepens across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Despite the low-amplitude nature of this regime, mid and upper-level flow will be somewhat strong, with most guidance showing 40-60 kt at 850-700 mb overspreading the Mid-MS/OH Valley/Great Lakes region by afternoon. At the surface, a warm front will be oriented across central IA, extending eastward along the IL/WI and IN/OH/MI border at midday. A weak surface low/frontal wave will propagate along this zone, with the front sagging southward as a cold front by late afternoon into the evening. By the end of the period, the front will be oriented from the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Lower OH valley and into the southern Plains.
Forecast soundings indicate capping could preclude warm sector convection for much of the daytime hours. In the absence of stronger large-scale ascent and surface cyclogenesis, the region will experience a broad warm advection regime, while low-level forcing along the front increases as it begins to march southward. Deep-layer flow will largely remain boundary-parallel, though backing low-level flow is expected near the front across the warm sector, enhancing low-level SRH. Boundary-layer moisture will be somewhat modest, generally in the low 60s F, through some pockets of mid-60s F dewpoints are possible, especially immediately ahead of the front. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will already be in place over the region, and this will aid in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE values reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by peak heating.
Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with enlarged/favorably curved low-level hodographs along the front and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Given strong deep-layer flow, hodographs also are elongated/straight. Supercells producing large to very large hail (greater than 2+ inch) are possible, even with potentially elevated convection to the cool side of the boundary. If any supercell can stay to the warm side of the surface front and maintain surface-based status, a tornado risk is also possible (possibly strong tornadoes). With time, convection is expected to develop into a line or bowing segments given orientation of deep-shear vectors to the surface boundary. Given strength of 850-700 mb flow and steep lapse rates, damaging winds gusts are possible.
The severe risk should diminish with south and east extent during the nighttime hours as storms approach the Ohio River.
..Leitman.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251852
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Synopsis
A midlevel shortwave trough will pivot across the eastern U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a cold front oriented from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Ohio Valley and southern Plains early Friday will develop southward through the period, moving offshore by Saturday morning. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. However, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near and just behind the front within a warm advection regime atop the boundary. Limited instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.
..Moore.. 03/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, March 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, March 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game