Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered storms are possible in the southern Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains and central Oregon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220550
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered storms are possible in the southern Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains and central Oregon.
Synopsis
A upper trough will persist in the Northeast CONUS with a ridge amplifying into the Northwest. An offshore upper low in the Northwest will eject shortwave perturbations into Oregon/Washington. At the surface, a cold front will move through New England. The front will slow in the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon before moving southeast during the overnight.
Mid-Atlantic into parts of Carolinas
The cold front in this region is expected to slow/stall near the Blue Ridge into eastern Maryland. Models suggest clouds/precipitation will be likely in the vicinity of the Virginia/North Carolina border. Mid-level forcing for ascent will be weak at best and subtle mid-level warming is expected from far southern Virginia into the Carolinas. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will be in place with the strongest flow in Virginia/Maryland. It is not clear how convection will evolve during the day/afternoon. Storms could potentially continue from the morning into the afternoon over portions of the region. There also is potential for storms to develop along the cold front where there could potentially be greater surface heating. In the Carolinas, the lack of ascent and cloud cover concerns limit confidence in how many storms and how strong they will become. Greater confidence in storm coverage exists in Virginia into the DelMarVa where the Slight Risk has been maintained. The kinematic environment will support occasionally organized storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two.
New England
A strong mid-level jet will be favorably timed during the afternoon, particularly for New Hampshire/Maine. As the cold front moves through, scattered storms appear probable. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and strong upper-level winds will promote supercell structures. The shear vector will have a large component parallel to the north-south cold front so it is not clear how long discrete structures can be maintained. Isolated damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Some consideration was given to a higher severe probabilities, but the region will initially be in the wake of a shortwave trough and thermodynamic profiles exhibit characteristics (e.g., mid-level inversion, lowered equilibrium level) that limits confidence in how many severe-caliber storms will exist.
Farther south and west, there is less signal for convective development along the cold front. A Marginal risk has been maintained this outlook cycle. Some risk for damaging winds would exist if an isolated storm can develop along the front.
Central High Plains
Southeasterly surface winds will combine with increasingly westerly/northwesterly flow aloft to promote modest deep-layer shear (around 30 kt 0-6 km) during the afternoon/evening. The development of a weak lee low and low-level moisture moving northwest around the Midwest anticyclone will aid in storm development within the region. Temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will allow for efficient outflow production. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet in western Kansas may also help maintain convection farther east during the evening. Severe wind gusts are possible with this activity.
Oregon
An upper-low will be positioned off the Northwest Coast. Subtle ascent will help to initiate storms in parts of central Oregon during the afternoon. Models are in strong agreement that scattered storms will move northward into at least early evening. Strong heating will lead to large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will promote a risk for strong to severe wind gusts despite limited buoyancy and shear.
..Wendt/Weinman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220520
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However, locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the central High Plains.
Discussion
In the mean, an amplified upper ridge will persist across he West, with the subtropical high over TX shifting west toward the Four Corners vicinity through the period. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will migrate southeast from the central Rockies to the Mid/Lower MO Valley through early Friday morning.
Southerly low-level flow across the Plains will result in a belt of modest boundary-layer moisture across the central High Plains. Steep midlevel lapse rates will foster weak instability across parts of WY/CO into western KS. Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and spread east/southeast across the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer will support isolated strong outflow gusts. However, weak vertical shear and limited instability will preclude severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 24
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220606
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
North Dakota/Minnesota
An upper shortwave trough will develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes on Friday. This will result in some enhancement of northwesterly flow aloft across the region. At the surface, low pressure will move from northern Manitoba into Quebec and a trailing cold front will drop southeast across ND and northern MN. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the eastern Dakotas and MN. A plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles, with 30-50 kt northwesterly flow between 700-500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening near the surface front. Wind profiles suggest supercells will be possible. Forecast soundings indicate some areas may maintain weak to moderate capping, which may preclude surface-based convection. However, elevated storms will pose a risk for isolated large hail. If thunderstorms are surface-based, a risk for strong gusts and tornado would also be possible.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, July 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, July 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, July 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, July 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, July 29 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 22
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, July 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, July 24
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, July 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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