Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, July 19

Monday, July 20

Tuesday, July 21

Wednesday, July 22

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191246

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.

Southeast

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northeast U.S. moving east towards the western Atlantic. A seasonably strong cold front over the OH Valley eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, will push south before weakening over VA. A very moist airmass evident in 12 UTC area raobs (14-15 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) will heat/destabilize across VA into the southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by midday into the early afternoon both over the higher terrain and near the front. Slightly stronger westerly flow over VA into the northern half of NC will favor eastward-moving clusters this afternoon. High PW and steepened low-level lapse rates will likely favor water-loading within the stronger downdrafts. Scattered 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Farther southwest over GA into AL, a couple of bands of storms may yield wind-damage potential with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central FL Peninsula northward into southern GA.

Upper Midwest

A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central Rockies as an upper speed max intensifies and overspreads MT eastward into MN. An associated mid-level trough initially over Alberta will pivot east-southeast into Manitoba and adjacent portions of ND-MN. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture northward into the Dakotas/MN region during the day. Models show a relatively narrow tongue of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints to the east of lee trough. In between a southeastward-moving cool front and the lee trough, deep boundary layer mixing is expected. Models generally show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over the Dakotas by mid afternoon beneath 70 to 90-kt westerly 200-mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas by mid to late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. Elongated, straight hodographs and effective shear around 40 kt will support an initial supercell mode. Very large hail (1 to 3.5 inches in diameter) is possible with a few of these supercells. As additional storms develop towards the early evening, convective outflow and additional storm mergers may lead to upscale growth of a severe-wind producing linear cluster (most probable over the eastern ND into adjacent SD-MN). Peak gusts with this activity are forecast in the 60-85 mph range. These storms will move east into parts of the eastern Dakotas and western MN before eventually weakening overnight.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN…NORTHEAST IA…NORTHERN IL…WI…AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing 50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI).

Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection could have implications for where corridors of greater severe potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold front, and airmass recovery is likely.

Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH overnight.

North Carolina vicinity

Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest, but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190710

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well.

Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 5	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190746 SPC AC 190746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15 percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

Days 5-8/Thu-Sun

Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress greater severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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