Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261624
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis
A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight. The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional 12z soundings. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast. A separate area of sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures around 600 mb.
A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds, but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely. Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area.
Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX through about midday until the cold front moves southward into Mexico.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261726
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
Synopsis
A broad upper low over the eastern third of US is forecast to deepen considerable Thursday as a large ridge also intensifies over the central and western parts of the country. A weak secondary shortwave trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest behind the building ridge. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore over south FL with strong high pressure building behind it. This will force offshore flow over much of the US. The one exception will be the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening where isolated thunderstorms are possible before the front clears the coast. Elsewhere, sporadic lightning is possible in the lee of the Great Lakes, but coverage should be minimal. No severe weather is expected.
..Lyons.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River, limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf. With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal) across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead of the surface low.
Central TX into far southwestern OK
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e. 40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.
First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).
Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game