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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Summary

A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011958

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

A few instances of severe hail are likely across central Oklahoma into the evening hours. An instance or two of hail or damaging gusts may still occur over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

20Z Update

The primary change made to this outlook was to add a Slight risk to portions of OK, while also expanding the Marginal risk to the south and west across southern portions of the state. Confidence is increasing for the initiation of a few supercell thunderstorms across central OK this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary. Current OK Mesonet surface observations depict a tongue of 59-60 F surface dewpoints, which are advecting northward across the southern portions of the state, toward the OKC metropolitan area. At least some mid-level clouds persist over and around the metro, suggesting that low-level moisture may not appreciably mix out through the remainder of the afternoon. As such, the current moisture profile, beneath 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield thin surface-based buoyancy profiles, with 1000/500 ML/SBCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Current INX/TLX VAD profiles depict hodographs with modest 0-3 km curvature, and RAP forecast soundings suggest that elongated mid-level hodographs should persist into the evening hours, resulting in appreciable deep-layer shear for supercell structures. While buoyancy will be relatively meager overall, a few hail reports at least in the 1-2 inch diameter range appears plausible this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with an instance or two of hail/strong wind gusts possible with thunderstorms developing off of sea-breeze boundaries over far southern FL over the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 03/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/

Oklahoma

A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.

South Florida

A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening. Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

Synopsis

An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail. However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east, diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should limit the potential for organized storms.

..Moore.. 03/01/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida.

Synopsis

The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance northward through the day in response to lee cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough. Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind, threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.

..Moore.. 03/01/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010959 SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5

On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8

At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010959 SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5

On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8

At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010959 SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5

On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8

At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010959 SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5

On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8

At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010959 SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5

On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8

At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow. Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 1

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 5%

Monday, March 2

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, March 3

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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