Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. Isolated damaging wind potential will exist over the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts remain possible this afternoon over the central Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. Isolated damaging wind potential will exist over the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts remain possible this afternoon over the central Gulf Coast states.
20Z Update
The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind area was expanded slightly west-southwestward in parts of eastern MT. Here, a small north/south-oriented line segment is tracking eastward into an increasingly warm PBL. This activity will continue to pose a risk of a few severe wind gusts this afternoon. See MCD #2264 for more details. Elsewhere, very minimal changes were made with this update.
..Weinman.. 09/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026/
ND
A fast-moving shortwave trough currently over WY/MT will track northeastward into the Dakotas this afternoon. Strong heating/mixing in southwest ND will lead to a sharpening dryline across central ND by mid/late afternoon. This will be the likely focus for thunderstorm development after 22z. Forecast soundings in the warm-sector east of the dryline suggest sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for supercell storm-modes. Large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible in the most intense storms. This activity will spread eastward into northeast ND this evening before weakening.
CO/KS/NE/SD
A weak surface boundary is present today from northeast CO into central NE. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form over the mountains of central CO, with development spreading eastward along the boundary through the afternoon. Strong heating and a deeply mixed boundary-layer will promote intense downdrafts in the strongest cores. By early evening, activity may spread into southeast SD where greater low-level moisture and CAPE will pose a risk of a few more intense storms capable of hail or even a tornado. Recent model solutions have been backing off on this SD scenario, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.
LA/MS/AL
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the central Gulf coast region today, with full sunshine and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Steering flow is weak, but high CAPE and ample moisture suggest a risk of occasional intense downdrafts in the strongest storms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071746
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Central Plains to Upper Midwest
An upper-level shortwave trough currently translating through the northern Rockies will move into the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains on Tuesday. A secondary upper-level feature will translate from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through the period. South of these features, enhanced mid-to upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the Mid-Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys. At the surface, a low over Manitoba will lift northeastward into Ontario by early Wednesday. A trailing cold front will move eastward across the Upper Midwest while the southern extent of the boundary is forecast to stall over southern Nebraska.
Ahead of the front, persistent southerly return flow will maintain a moist warm-sector with weak to moderate instability ahead of the front. Most CAM guidance depicts elevated thunderstorms Tuesday morning across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, near the nose of the low-level jet. This early activity will likely pose an initial risk for marginally severe hail and isolated strong wind gusts.
Further south, severe potential is expected to gradually increase during the evening ahead of the front across Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and potentially northern Kansas. Deep-layer shear will progressively lessen with southward extent but strong convergence along the stalling boundary should support convective initiation within the moderately unstable boundary-layer. Initial cells will likely have a threat for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts, but are expected to quickly grow upscale into line segments with a greater damaging wind threat later Tuesday evening.
..Bentley.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071848
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE
SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley
Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall severe weather threat does not appear likely.
Upper Ohio Valley into New York
A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat, but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.
..Bentley.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070732 SPC AC 070732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary. Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across the region.
During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low position). These differences have large implications for where the best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the weekend.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070732 SPC AC 070732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary. Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across the region.
During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low position). These differences have large implications for where the best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the weekend.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070732 SPC AC 070732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary. Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across the region.
During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low position). These differences have large implications for where the best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the weekend.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070732 SPC AC 070732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary. Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across the region.
During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low position). These differences have large implications for where the best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the weekend.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070732 SPC AC 070732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary. Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across the region.
During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low position). These differences have large implications for where the best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the weekend.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game