Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Monday, July 6

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Friday, July 10

Saturday, July 11

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Summary

Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 45%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.

Synopsis

Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains.

Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic

Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools.

Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind.

Central/Southern Plains

Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential.

More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind.

Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley

There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides.

..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Summary

Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040510

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea.

Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba. However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border.

To the south of the international border, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing, likely with a number of embedded convectively generated perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic.

To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing, severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance.

Mid Atlantic

There remains little general change from prior model output. It still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening.

Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains

Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening, accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts.

Northwestern North Dakota

There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night.

Discussion

Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota

Northern Great Plains

Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Sunday, July 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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