Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected today and tonight across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211230
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected today and tonight across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast.
Southwest
Ongoing thunderstorms across central/northern AZ early this morning are being aided by large-scale ascent associated with a strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. This activity should continue to pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail in the short term, with 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear aiding updraft organization and supercell potential in an otherwise weakly unstable environment (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg at the moment). Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to continue advancing northward into an even less unstable environment, but regenerative convection may persist for much of the morning as additional cells move over the Mogollon Rim.
In the wake of this morning convection, an already unseasonably moist low-level airmass present across southern/central AZ is forecast to slowly spread northward across the lower CO River Valley and Mogollon Rim vicinity through the afternoon. Even with widespread cloudiness, filtered daytime heating will support gradual airmass destabilization and the development of up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across this region (locally stronger in central AZ), as convective inhibition becomes minimal by 18-20Z. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop across central/northern AZ in this time frame, as persistent forcing for ascent attendant to the mid/upper-level southwesterly jet remains over the Southwest.
Strong deep-layer shear (40-55+ kt) will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for large hail. Greater instability is forecast with southward/westward extent in central AZ and southern NV, but lower thunderstorm coverage may exist in these areas. Still, a conditional risk for 2+ inch diameter hail remains apparent with splitting supercells given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur, but the tendency for convection to remain mostly discrete may limit clustering potential to some extent.
The tornado threat with these supercells remains somewhat uncertain, as temperatures will remain fairly cool across northern AZ today. Even so, the risk for a few tornadoes may focus across parts of northwest/north-central AZ this afternoon and early evening, where greater low-level shear is forecast to reside amid generally east-southeasterly low-level winds. It should also be noted that multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely today into tonight. Primary changes with this update were to extend the Slight Risk westward across northwest AZ/southeast NV/southwest UT mainly for large hail potential with supercells this afternoon/evening, and to expand the Marginal Risk in southern NV and western NM.
Coastal Central/Southern California
A large, closed upper low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA Coast through the period, with a belt of strong southerly flow at mid levels expected to overspread coastal central/southern CA through the day. A low-topped line of convection may develop in response and impact this region during the afternoon/evening. Instability is forecast to remain minimal/shallow, and this activity may struggle to reach sufficient height for charge separation and lightning production. Still, given modestly enhanced flow and low-level shear, an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may exist as this convection moves onshore.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.
Synopsis
A broad longwave mid-level trough will traverse the western CONUS on Thursday, encouraging continued deep-layer ascent amid the northward advection of low-level moisture, promoting scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible spanning the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin given overlapping marginal buoyancy and widespread strong wind fields aloft. However, across portions of the Desert Southwest, an embedded mid-level impulse accompanied by a 500 mb speed max atop locally higher low-level moisture/instability may promote a more focused risk of severe thunderstorms.
Desert Southwest into the Great Basin
Deep-layer ascent, combined with at least some degree of surface heating ahead of the broader upper trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development over the Great Basin during the afternoon. Largely unidirectional (southerly) tropospheric flow will yield highly elongated, straight hodographs and over 50 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and around 500 J/kg MLCAPE, transient supercells and small line segments will be the main storm modes, accompanied by an isolated severe gust/hail threat.
Farther south into central AZ to far western NM, a 70+ kt 500 mb southwesterly speed max with 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread southeasterly low-level flow and low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints. This ambient environment, as shown by forecast soundings, will yield modestly elongated hodographs, but with appreciable size and curvature at the low-levels. Given locally higher moisture, up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be realized in tandem with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH. While CAM guidance consensus depicts a complex storm mode and several potential cellular interactions, longer-lived, embedded supercell structures are possible. Should such storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210723
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central into southern New Mexico on Friday.
Synopsis
A broad longwave upper trough will impinge on the Rockies on Friday, supporting strong surface lee troughing along the High Plains. Continued northward advecting low-level moisture and deep-layer ascent accompanying the broad upper trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms all along the Rockies to the northern Plains. Across portions of the southern Rockies, locally richer moisture and associated instability, beneath stronger flow aloft, will support a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms.
Portions of central into southern New Mexico
An embedded mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt mid-level southwesterly speed max will graze the southern Rockies during by afternoon. By this time, surface heating of a low-level airmass comprising upper 50s F dewpoints and overspread by 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Scattered thunderstorms should initiate by afternoon, amid veering and strengthening flow with height. Forecast soundings show modest low-level hodograph curvature and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, should support a mix of multicells and supercells capable of producing isolated instances of severe hail and wind.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 28 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.
Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, October 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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