Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, June 12

Saturday, June 13

Sunday, June 14

Monday, June 15

Tuesday, June 16

Wednesday, June 17

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of producing large hail and scattered severe wind gusts will spread east-southeastward across parts of the south-central High Plains into the overnight hours. Locally damaging gusts will remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130100

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of producing large hail and scattered severe wind gusts will spread east-southeastward across parts of the south-central High Plains into the overnight hours. Locally damaging gusts will remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

South-central High Plains

Between a broad large-scale trough over the northern CONUS and an upper ridge over the southern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates a subtle/low-amplitude impulse tracking eastward across the central/southern High Plains – embedded within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow. This feature and accompanying 40-50 kt of effective shear will maintain an upscale-growing cluster of storms as is tracks east-southeastward across the southern/central High Plains into the overnight hours. In the near-term, large hail and locally severe gusts will be the main concerns, especially with the more separated updrafts/supercell structures evolving along the southern flank of the convective cluster in northeastern NM. With time, strengthening outflow and a nocturnal low-level jet will promote further upscale growth and scattered severe/damaging gusts. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #323 for more information.

Mid-Atlantic

A cluster of thunderstorms tracking east-southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic will continue to weaken over the next couple hours as the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes toward the coast.

Eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas/western Missouri

Positive low-level theta-e advection at the nose of a strengthening low-level jet will promote isolated thunderstorm development late in the period. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a statically stable boundary layer will mostly favor elevated storms. Sufficient deep-layer shear will support convective organization, and severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity will pose a risk for producing large hail and swaths of strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS…ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…AND MUCH OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Some of this activity will pose a risk for producing large hail and swaths of strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within this regime, substantive mid-level troughing is forecast to dig across the Upper Midwest, to the southwest of a lingering mid-level low centered across northwestern Ontario. Spread within model output remains larger concerning short wave perturbations digging through initially weaker flow across the Missouri through lower Ohio Valleys, and the extent to which they may begin to suppress the northern periphery of subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf Basin.

In lower levels, an initial, convective outflow enhanced, surface front overspreading much of the Mid Atlantic through Mid South vicinity will likely already be in the process of weakening at the outset of the period. However, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop southward into and through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio Valley, Ozarks Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded across the Ohio Valley through western slopes of the Appalachians by outflow from extensive prior convective development.

Central Great Plains into Missouri Valley

The potential for increasing thunderstorm development at the outset of the period across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa (near the nose of an east-northeastward advecting plume of elevated mixed-layer air) coupled with potential for substantive, but weakening, remnant convection from overnight overspreading the Ozark Plateau, contribute to continuing uncertainty concerning subsequent convective development Saturday through Saturday night. The evolution of convective outflows, and their impact on boundary-layer destabilization, coupled with uncertain short wave developments, will substantially impact the timing, location and potential upscale growth of potentially stronger thunderstorm development.

However, beneath the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, a corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating and deeper mixing across Kansas during the day seems to provide the highest certainty for moderate to strong destabilization. Near the nose of this regime, somewhere across eastern Kansas into western Missouri, based on a consensus of model output, low-level warm advection in the presence of weaker inhibition may provide the focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late afternoon. And there appears a general signal in the model output that a modifying outflow boundary/zone of differential heating may provide a focus for the southeastward development of upscale growing convection toward the Mid South through Saturday night. As this occurs, increasing thunderstorm development also appears probable ahead of the southward advancing cold front across Kansas through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle vicinity.

Although deep-layer shear may be initially modest, it may still be sufficient to support the evolution of a few supercells capable of producing large hail and potential for a couple tornadoes, before evolving swaths of strong to severe wind gusts become the more prominent threat with organizing clusters into late Saturday evening.

..Kerr.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity through much of the northern Mid Atlantic Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity through much of the northern Mid Atlantic Sunday.

Discussion

Downstream of initially amplified mid-level ridging offshore of the Pacific coast, models indicate that flow will continue to trend cyclonic east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, to the south of a broadening vortex centered near southern Hudson Bay. Within this regime, it appears that notable short wave troughing will pivot east of the Upper Midwest through the southeastern Canadian provinces and Northeast by late Sunday night, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the lower Great Lakes through St. Lawrence Valley vicinity. It appears that this may be preceded by the remnants of an initially fairly notable mesoscale convective vortex, within strengthening westerly flow across the Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by early Sunday evening.

Northeast

There remains considerable spread within the latest model output concerning the extent of convective potential for this period. Mostly this appears related pre-frontal low-level moisture return and destabilization across the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the lower Great Lakes, which could be slowed or impeded by the influence of preceding convective outflow. However, guidance generally suggests that destabilization prior to the arrival of the MCV and belt of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (30-40+ kt) will be sufficient to support potential for organized severe convection east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic by late Sunday afternoon. More substantive strengthening of mid-level wind fields and forcing for ascent appear likely to overspread the pre-frontal environment across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the lower Great Lakes region, where it appears increasing model output is now suggesting that the evolving warm sector may become sufficiently unstable to support a risk for organized severe storm development.

Damaging wind gusts accompanying organizing lines and/or clusters appear the primary severe hazard, but there also appears at least some potential for a few tornadoes. It is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased further in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120736 SPC AC 120736

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Mon-Tue

A surface front will remain across south TX and the Gulf Coast vicinity while broad upper troughing persists east of the Rockies. As a result, severe potential is expected to remain limited as any deep Gulf moisture and stronger instability will remain well removed from any stronger mid/upper flow associated with the upper trough.

Days 6-7/Wed-Thu - Southern Plains to Midwest

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies to the MS Valley on Wednesday, and the OH Valley to the Northeast on Thursday. Deepening surface low pressure will shift from the central Plains to the Northeast and southwesterly deep-layer flow increases. This will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Plains/Midwest on Wednesday, and the Northeast by Thursday. This could result in increasing severe potential for portions of these regions. Currently, capping across the Plains my limit storm coverage across that region on Wednesday. Furthermore, timing of greater moisture return across the Midwest ahead of a surface cold front is uncertain. Severe probabilities may be needed eventually, but uncertainty remains too high to introduce unconditional probabilities at this time.

Day 8/Fri

Upper ridging is expected to develop over the Rockies into the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, upper troughing will pivot northeast across New England. Some guidance suggests a shortwave impulse could eject from the Rockies into the central Plains within the broader scale upper ridging. This could support some severe potential, but overall predictability is low given large model spread.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 13: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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