Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
20z Update
### Southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest
The forecast remains generally on track with only minor adjustments made to the existing outlook. Locally greater potential for a couple of damaging/severe wind gusts may exist across portions of south-central Kansas and northern Missouri where guidance continues to depict greater storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface cold front. The general displacement of enhanced deep-layer shear to the north of the boundary and better thermodynamic profiles farther to the south limits confidence regarding the occurrence of more than isolated damaging/severe wind gusts, however. Thus, have opted against a categorical upgrade with this outlook cycle. See MCDs #2300 and #2301 as well as the discussion below for additional details.
Great Basin
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have formed across portions of the Four Corners region as of 1930 UTC. Latest objective analysis and regional observed 18z soundings indicate that weak buoyancy has developed amid deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles. While these thermodynamic profiles may support an isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm or two this afternoon, relatively weak low-level flow and fairly nebulous synoptic forcing for ascent are expected to preclude a more concentrated area of severe potential.
..Chalmers/Weinman.. 09/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026/
Central Plains into Midwest
Moderately fast zonal flow remains across the northern US today, with the primary surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle east-northeastward into parts of KS/MO/IL. This boundary will be enhanced by daytime differential heating, and will provide the focus for scattered thunderstorms along its length. Most of this activity will be relatively disorganized, but in an environment of moderate CAPE and steep low-level lapse rates favorable for occasional strong/severe downdrafts.
One area of greater concern extends across northern MO into west-central IL. Morning CAM solutions suggest higher confidence in storm coverage in this area, and forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear for organized multicell or occasional supercell structures. However, much of this activity may occur on the north side of the baroclinic zone with slightly weaker support for intense downburst winds. Warm temperatures aloft should limit hail concern. Therefore, have opted to maintain the MRGL risk category and re-evaluate at the 20z update.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across northern Utah on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151708
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN UTAH
### SUMMARY
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across northern Utah on Wednesday.
UT
An upper low will move slowly southward across northern CA, with low pressure and gusty south winds developing over NV. Substantial moisture will exist east of this trough, with precipitable water around 1.00” over much of UT. Temperatures aloft will be coolest early in the day, with gradual height rises over time which may mitigate destabilization somewhat. However, mid to upper level shear will be strong due to the upper jet, and may support cellular storm mode and marginal hail. Storms may develop early in the day, with additional activity during the afternoon.
Northern MO/IA eastward into OH
A 600 dm high at 500 mb will remain over the TN Valley, with generally weak winds aloft south of the Great Lakes. A weak east-west oriented surface trough is forecast to stretch from MO into OH, with 70s F dewpoints present. Daytime heating will result in an uncapped air mass, with scattered thunderstorms within this zone. The poor lapse rates aloft and building upper ridge should result mainly in non-severe thunderstorms. However, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.
..Jewell.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151910
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low on Thursday.
Discussion
On Thursday, a large upper trough will move into eastern Canada, with height falls with the base of the trough moving across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, heights will fall over the Southeast as the upper high center shifts back west into the southern Plains. To the west, an upper low will drift from northern CA into southern OR, with cool temperatures aloft over much of the Great Basin.
At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains to Great Lakes, with a weak surface trough extending from the central Plains into the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic. Upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along this zone, resulting in areas of moderate instability. Weaker instability will exist ahead of the Pacific Northwest low, and ahead of a cold front pushing across northern NV, eastern OR, and western ID.
Severe storm chances appear relatively low over the Pacific Northwest given weak instability and marginal shear, while the zone from MO into PA suffers from poor lapse rates aloft and/or minimal shear.
..Jewell.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150842 SPC AC 150842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest medium-range model output still suggests that an initially prominent mid-level ridge, across the central and southern Great Plains through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys at the outset of the period, will become suppressed late this week into next weekend. But, this may be a bit slower to occur than previous guidance has suggested, and the coinciding and subsequent pattern evolution across much of North America has become more unclear due to model spread. In general, though, it still appears that modest to weak split westerlies will prevail, with little appreciable signal for substantive surface cyclogenesis. Barring appreciable change, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development still appears low through at least early next week.
..Kerr.. 09/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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