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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091616

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS…FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY…AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona.

Mid Atlantic

Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat.

Central High Plains

Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of damaging winds.

ND/SD

A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

MO/IL/KY/IN

The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could pose a damaging wind threat.

Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible over the central and southern High Plains and eastern Kansas into Missouri Friday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and large hail are possible from the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the western Florida Peninsula, and parts of Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091724

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible over the central and southern High Plains and eastern Kansas into Missouri Friday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and large hail are possible from the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the western Florida Peninsula, and parts of Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.

Synopsis

Considerable amplification of a mid/upper-level ridge is forecast from the lower CO Valley into central Canada on Friday into Friday night. To the immediate east of the building heights, the 12Z models indicate multiple perturbations (some of convective origin) progressing through the central Plains into the mid MS, lower OH, and TN Valleys. At the surface, the primary front, the position of which may be modified by convective outflow, is expected to stretch from the southern High Plains through the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon.

### Central and Southern High Plains

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the CO Front Range and Raton Mesa, where moist upslope flow will coincide with an EML to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Despite only modest westerly flow in the mid levels, an easterly low-level wind component will augment deep-layer shear, allowing for some supercell structures with a risk for isolated large hail. 12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of the initial storms into a bowing, linear mode with an associated severe wind risk spreading east into far southwest KS and the OK and TX Panhandles.

### Eastern KS into the mid MS Valley

The eastern extension of the EML will overlie a moist boundary layer with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s to yield moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg. Convergence along the synoptic front and/or residual outflow boundaries will be aided by forcing for ascent attendant to a remnant MCV to support scattered afternoon storms. Some enhancement of the mid-level wind field is forecast in the vicinity of the MCV/shortwave trough, which will locally augment vertical shear, supporting organized storm modes with an attendant risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

### Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast

An area of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers. That activity may weaken or dissipate by mid morning over the TN Valley; however, a remnant MCV may support a reinvigoration of storms by afternoon from the TN Valley through the southern Appalachians toward Carolina coast. The presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass, featuring steep low-level lapse rates, will support sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.

### Mid-Atlantic

Some mid-level flow enhancement is forecast Friday afternoon in association with a shortwave trough moving through the region. That feature, coupled with the synoptic front in the area, will support scattered afternoon storms amidst a moist and at least modestly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen to 30-35 kt, which may contribute to some storm organization with the primary hazard being isolated damaging wind gusts.

### Western Florida Peninsula

A number of the 12Z CAMs suggest some degree of cold pool organization with afternoon thunderstorms moving west/northwest through the area. The presence of moderate to strong instability will aid in the water loading of downdrafts with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

### MN and Eastern SD

Despite building mid-level heights, there is a fairly consistent model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development along a front during the afternoon. The combination of moderate to strong instability and a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor some storm organization with the potential for a few large hail occurrences.

..Mead.. 07/09/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the southern High Plains through the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the southern High Plains through the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level high is forecast to strengthen while shifting from the lower CO Valley and Four Corners into the central Rockies. A belt of strong mid-level winds will develop across the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies, between the high and an upper low along the British Columbia coast. Downstream from those developments, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through New England and the Mid-Atlantic with a mid-level wind shift/shear axis stretching from the central Plains into the TN Valley.

At the surface, a front is expected to move through the Mid-Atlantic with the trailing extension of the boundary stretching through the Mid South/TN Valley into the southern High Plains.

### Central and Southern Plains

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon along the surface front from southern KS and OK into the OK and TX Panhandles. The steepest mid-level lapse rates will remain confined to the High Plains with increasing boundary-layer moisture content with eastward extent, both of which are expected to yield a moderately unstable environment. The 12Z models indicate a channel of stronger mid-level winds within the eastern periphery of the upper high across the High Plains, which may enhance vertical shear across that segment of the frontal zone. As such, the potential for some storm organization appears to exist with an attendant risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

### Ozark Plateau to Tennessee Valley

The potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty due to the possibility for lingering clouds and precipitation to limit the destabilization process in some areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability by the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The synoptic front and residual outflow boundaries will likely focus the most intense storms with the mid-level shear axis potentially enhancing background forcing for ascent. Generally weak vertical shear will limit the potential for storm organization with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

### Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas

The glancing influence of the shortwave trough moving through the Northeast will combine with convergence along the front and preceding lee trough to foster scattered afternoon storms. The strongest vertical shear is expected to remain to the north of the area; however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass will be supportive of a few strong storms capable of damaging downburst winds.

### Southern Arizona

Some enhancement of mid-level winds is forecast south of the upper high, yielding a corridor of stronger deep-layer shear, which will coincide with a moist and moderately unstable air mass. That environment will be supportive of a few strong to briefly severe storms with a risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that the center of strong mid-level ridging building northeast of the Four Corners states will shift across the middle Missouri Valley early next week, where it may reach peak intensity by about Tuesday, before becoming suppressed. Even as this commences, mid-level ridging in the westerlies may be maintained near and north/northeast of the international border, from the Great Plains through the Great Lakes, while large-scale downstream troughing amplifies southeastward across the Northeast.

Associated with this evolution, a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air still appears likely to advect on the southern fringe of a belt of strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this ridging. As the nose of the warmer air overspreads the Great Lakes region early next week, forcing for ascent associated with warm advection could begin supporting organizing thunderstorm clusters potentially impacting portions of New England, and/or the lower Great Lakes through Mid Atlantic.

As guidance suggests that the westerlies will initially remain split downstream of the ridge, and a potentially notable short wave trough (and associated cold front) migrating around its periphery and eventually suppressing it, it remains unclear how potential frontal and pre-frontal convection will pan out on any particular day. Due to both synoptic and sub-synoptic predictability issues, severe probabilities remain at less than 15 percent in the day 6-8 time frame. However, this probably will change in later outlooks closer to this time period, when the potential for introducing unduly large forecast false alarm decreases.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 9

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 10

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, July 11

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, July 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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