Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171250

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

Synopsis

Large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS should further amplify today as an embedded mid-level jet and associated shortwave trough move from the West Coast to the Four Corners region through the period. A broad zone of around 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today from the southern/central High Plains to the Upper Midwest, with multiple small-scale perturbations forecast to advance northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a low over western KS this morning is expected to gradually develop northeastward towards the KS/NE border vicinity this evening. A dryline trailing from this low will mix eastward through late afternoon peak heating across the southern/central High Plains. A warm front will attempt to lift northward today across NE/IA into southeast SD and parts of southern MN, while a cold front is forecast to gradually advance southeastward across the northern/central Plains through the period.

Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest

Initial thunderstorm development appears likely across eastern CO this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. By 20-22Z, additional robust convection is expected to develop along/near the cold front across north-central NE/south-central SD in a rapidly destabilizing airmass. There is still some uncertainty with how far north the warm front and related rich low-level moisture will reach across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, especially given ongoing convection and related outflow this morning across NE/IA.

Still, an increasing large hail threat remains evident with any convection that develops along/near the cold front this afternoon, as ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including supercells initially. A strong tornado threat will exist with any of these supercells that can become/remain surface based, as low-level shear strengthens through the late afternoon/early evening. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds should develop as convection quickly grows upscale into bowing clusters this evening. The northeastward extent of this severe wind threat remains a bit uncertain, especially into southern/central MN where the warm front is forecast to reach. A risk for embedded QLCS tornadoes may continue with the surface-based portion of the cluster.

Thunderstorm initiation farther south along the length of the dryline appears somewhat conditional given modest large-scale ascent. But, most guidance continues to show at least isolated high-based convection developing by late afternoon across parts of north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. Any thunderstorms which can be sustained will pose a threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes, especially across KS where a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance 0-1 km shear. A strong tornado appears possible this evening with any supercell that can persist, although there should be a tendency for upscale growth into a severe wind producing cluster with time as the cold front overtakes the dryline.

Great Lakes/Lower Michigan

Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show an MCV associated with earlier convection across the central Plains is present over IA this morning. This feature is forecast to track east-northeastward today, and should approach eastern WI and Lower MI by late afternoon/early evening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level wind field should exist in close proximity to this MCV, and the surface warm front is expected to gradually develop northward across these regions through the day. Some intensification of convection is possible this afternoon/evening along and near the warm front, with sufficient instability and shear to support a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado. A Slight Risk has been added for parts of Lower MI given increased confidence in this scenario occurring.

Southeast

On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail.

Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley

A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in a persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the strong MUCAPE forecast.

Mid-Atlantic

Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this morning over OH may support isolated convective development this afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger cores that may develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

Synopsis

On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin at the start of the D2/Monday period.

A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be located across central Kansas extending southward into western Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO

Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around 20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+ inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this potential.

The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50 kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach 250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska. Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS.

Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI

Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY. Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper Midwest.

…OK/TX

A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk for primarily damaging wind and hail.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST…OHIO VALLEY…AND NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk for primarily damaging wind and hail.

Synopsis

A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes through the period.

Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes

Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time.

Oklahoma/Texas

Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result, probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate instability ahead of the front.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 17

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, May 18

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 45%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, May 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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