Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks regionally.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180107
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks regionally.
Central/southern Plains to Upper Midwest
General regional trends will be for ongoing storms to continue to grow upscale with increasing damaging wind potential this evening. However, tornado potential (including a few strong) will continue with embedded/semi-discrete supercells this evening, including near the southern Minnesota warm frontal vicinity, and farther south-southwest across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, and perhaps with southern peripheral development near the dryline across southern Kansas. Scenario is supported by a moist/unstable air mass, along with dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL, a trend already noted in regional WSR-88D VWP data as supplemental to 00z observed soundings from Omaha/Topeka/Norman and Springfield, Missouri.
..Guyer.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas into southeast Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas into southeast Nebraska.
Synopsis
A midlevel shortwave trough, now approaching the northern Great Basin, will move to near the Four Corners by Monday morning and then eject northeastward over northwest KS/NE during the afternoon and to the upper MS Valley by early Tuesday. This path will be along and just northwest of a stalled baroclinic zone from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley, such that the primary height falls and forcing for ascent will brush the northwest side of the surface warm sector from KS to IA. A remnant lee cyclone will persist through the afternoon near the southwest KS/OK Panhandle border, prior to a surge of the cold front in the immediate wake of the midlevel trough. Downstream from the ejecting trough, surface cyclogenesis is expected Monday night from IA into WI along a stalled front.
KS to IA
There are a few questions surrounding the forecast for Monday afternoon/night. The northeast extent of the unstable warm sector will depend on the persistence of rain-cooled air with morning convection across IA/northern MO/northwest IL. This convection and an associated MCV could continue eastward through the day across central/northern IL, northern IN, northwest OH and Lower MI with the potential for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail. The west edge of the remnant cold pool should modify by afternoon/evening from the MO/KS/NE border area into IA, prior to thunderstorm development along the stalled front (and immediately in advance of glancing influence of the ejecting midlevel trough) 21-00z from central KS into southeast NE and western IA.
Rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints 68-72 F) is spreading northward now from TX to OK and will be established in the warm sector Monday. The moisture will reside beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates and will combine with daytime heating to drive MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. Mass response to the ejecting wave and the typical evening ramp up of a low-level jet will result in favorable wind profiles/hodographs for supercells capable of producing strong-intense tornadoes and very large hail. The duration of a semi-discrete storm mode is another question, given the parallel orientation of the stalled front and the deep-layer shear vectors, in combination with focused ascent. Thus, the strong tornado threat will peak prior to upscale growth into line segments along the front, with severe outflow gusts and embedded circulations becoming the main concerns into Monday night.
OK/northwest TX
Storm development along the dryline to the south in OK/northwest TX is more uncertain given little forcing for ascent. If storms do form, there will be a conditional threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A consistent forecast weakness in the flow above 500 mb by late afternoon/evening does not appear favorable for particularly long-lived storms if they do form. The more probable scenario remains a back-building line of storms along the cold front with occasional hail/wind Monday night.
..Thompson.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171911
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains.
Great Lakes and vicinity
An ejecting midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley early in the period will begin to phase with the northern stream while moving eastward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will move across southern ON/QC, as a trailing cold front progresses southeastward across the OH/middle MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along the cold front from northwest TX and OK to the middle MS Valley and the vicinity of Lake MI. The stronger low-midlevel flow will be confined to the area closer to the Great Lakes, where some diurnal destabilization could allow an uptick in threat for wind damage and isolated large hail.
Lower OH Valley into the southern Plains
Farther southwest, flow aloft will be weaker and convection will be tied to the slowing front and/or convective outflows from D2 convection persisting into D3. Moderate to strong buoyancy (greater to the west into TX) is expected just ahead of the front, which combined with the relatively weak wind profiles, will favor multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and isolated large hail through the afternoon. There will be some potential for an isolated supercell or two to move off the Serranias del Burro into TX where large CAPE will coincide with the cyclonic side of the subtropical jet and at least marginally sufficient vertical shear. Otherwise, the pattern will transition overnight to a weak warm advection regime atop the cool air mass, where elevated storms could produce large hail from northwest TX into southern OK.
..Thompson.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday
On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.
D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday
On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.
D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday
On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.
D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday
On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.
D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday
On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.
D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 17
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Monday, May 18
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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