Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from this afternoon into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 022002
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from this afternoon into tonight.
20Z Update
A potent shortwave trough evident in water vapor satellite imagery is beginning to take on a neutral-to-negative tilt, as the trough and its associated jet streak progresses eastward out of New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. In advance of this shortwave, deepening cumulus and thunderstorm development in response to the approaching wave are evident on visible satellite and radar imagery. As better moisture is transported northward ahead of this development and a narrow corridor of mixing further destabilizes the environment, these (and subsequent) thunderstorms are expected to become severe. Storms should initially favor a supercell mode before growing upscale into linear convective complexes.
The Enhanced Risk for tornadoes was expanded south and west into portions of Central Oklahoma to account for recent observational trends and short-term forecast guidance, while hail probabilities were expanded further north and east to account for ongoing elevated convection capable of 1.00-1.50 inch hail. Greater uncertainty exists in where the primary corridor of damaging wind potential will materialize, but leading edge bowing segments will be capable of 65-80 MPH damaging wind gusts.
..Halbert-K.. 11/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026/
Central/Southern Plains
A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with a strong shortwave trough rotating across the Four-Corners area. As this features and its associated 80+ knot mid level jet begin to eject into the southern Plains this afternoon, numerous thunderstorms are expected to form from west-central TX northward into parts of KS/NE. Widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 60s, pockets of heating, and strong low-level winds across a broad area will result in conditional risks of damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and some hail. However, there are a few specific scenarios that appear most likely to focus that risk.
OK/KS early this afternoon
Water vapor imagery shows a lead trough currently moving into western OK. This feature is expected to aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon, tracking into southern KS. Wind fields are very strong in this area, and a few supercell structures are expected. However, forecast soundings show poor low-level thermodynamics with LFC heights around 700mb. This should limit the severe risk.
KS/OK/North TX this afternoon/evening
The primary severe risk will be with storms forming along the surface dryline over western OK and south-central KS by late afternoon. These storms will also be in a favorable shear profile for supercell structures, but cooling temperatures aloft will also increase the risk of robust updrafts as storms track quickly northeastward. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. By early evening, the Pacific cold front will catch up to the convective line, resulting in more linear structures and greater wind potential.
West-Central TX
The aforementioned convective line will build southward into west-central TX through the evening, with some risk of damaging winds and a tornado or two. Low-level winds and large-scale dynamics will be weaker with southward extent, lessening the overall severe threat.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
MS Valley area
The primary surface cyclone is expected to develop north-northeastward from eastern KS Tuesday morning to the upper MS Valley by Wednesday morning, as the associated midlevel trough progresses eastward and northeastward across the MS Valley well in advance of an upstream trough approaching northern CA. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward through the day across MO/AR. Clouds and convection will be relatively widespread along the front at the beginning of the period, and a messy/QLCS convective mode will likely persist through the day.
The primary cyclone developing away from the moisture source region, the widespread clouds/rain, and poor midlevel lapse all suggest that warm sector buoyancy will also remain limited through the period. The richer low-level moisture and slightly larger buoyancy will likely remain confined to the Ark-La-Miss, where low-level shear/hodograph curvature is forecast to be sufficient for embedded rotating storms capable of producing a tornado or two and isolated wind damage. The isolated severe threat could persist into Tuesday night across northern MS and vicinity on the east edge of the returning low-level moisture and near the southern extent of the stronger low-level flow/shear. Farther north into the mid MS Valley, the severe threat farther north will be confined to the strongest embedded line segments during the day. There is a small chance for low-topped supercells near the surface cyclone Tuesday afternoon.
..Thompson.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A cyclone is forecast to occlude in the vicinity of WI as a cold front slows its eastward movement late in the period across the upper OH Valley, and stalls across the TN/lower MS Valley region. The southern extent of an associated midlevel trough will brush the northern edge of a weakly unstable warm sector early in the period. Forcing for ascent and low-level flow/shear will tend to weaken within the warm sector by afternoon, so any threat for severe storms in the vicinity of northern AL appears too marginal for an outlook area. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible into parts of the Great Lakes with marginal buoyancy.
Farther west, a shortwave trough will progress quickly eastward over the Four Corners to the southern High Plains late in the period. Ascent in the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet streak, in combination with sufficient moisture and steep lapse rates, will support the potential for lightning flashes with low-topped convection.
..Thompson.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 5 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thur/D4, the upper low over the Great Lakes will weak as the larger-scale upper trough moves into the eastern USA. An associated cold front will also push toward the eastern seaboard late Thur into Fri/D5. A marginally unstable air mass may support thunderstorms along the front over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, but this along with weak low-level winds are unlikely to support severe storms.
From Sat/D6 to Mon/D8, an upper ridge may develop over the West, with possible trough amplifications into the Plains as upper waves round the ridge and dig southeastward. This will support additional reinforcements of high pressure into the central and eastern states, with minimal chance of thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 11/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 2
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game