Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111213
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.
Carolinas
A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas. Ample low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Pockets of daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Low-level winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence and shear. A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds and hail. But the overall threat appears marginal.
Eastern FL
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.
Coastal LA/MS/AL
A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today. The combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL. Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak. Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of damaging winds and hail.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois, northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS…NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois, northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.
Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwest Great Lakes
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will move southeastward across Wisconsin as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front in the afternoon as surface heating takes place and low-level convergence becomes more focused. The storms are forecast to move toward an instability axis located from southeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. Along this axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. Low-level lapse rates are also forecast to become steep just ahead of the front. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. The strongest instability and steepest mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be further southwest into parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, where a locally greater hail threat will be possible in the late afternoon.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110717
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 16 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.
On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.
By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.
On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 16 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.
On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.
By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.
On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 16 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.
On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.
By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.
On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 16 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.
On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.
By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.
On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 16 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110818 SPC AC 110818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to pass eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains, with moisture and instability located in the central Plains. Although most of the airmass is forecast to be capped during the day, a few storms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in areas that heat up the most.
On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains, as a moisture and instability advects northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this airmass in the afternoon and evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats.
By Saturday, a wide corridor of moderate instability is forecast to be in place over the Great Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central U.S. during the afternoon. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north Texas northward into Nebraska. Along the western edge of the instability corridor, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear are forecast. The environment could support large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat in the southern and central Plains where instability, shear and lift are forecast to become maximized.
Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8
On Sunday, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly over the central U.S., as a shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains. Further south in the southern and central Plains, moderate to strong instability is forecast to be in place by midday. Thunderstorm development is expected over parts of this unstable airmass in the afternoon and evening. Although uncertainty exists concerning the location of the greatest severe threat, some solutions suggest potential for a large complex of storms from eastern Kansas into Missouri. At this time, too much uncertainty exists for the addition of a severe threat area.
On Monday, a front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of this front, isolated severe storms will be possible near an axis of instability in the afternoon and evening. However, model spread is relatively large concerning the timing of features at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, May 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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