Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101156
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.
TX
Morning water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough digging southeastward across CO. This feature will emerge into the Plains this morning and track into OK/TX by this afternoon. Large scale ascent ahead of this trough has led to multiple clusters of thunderstorms overnight across OK and north TX, reinforcing cooler/stable air down into north-central TX. While some recovery of the air mass is expected, the primary surface boundary will likely extend across north TX by early afternoon. Strong heating to its south, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid level lapse rates will yield strongly unstable CAPE (MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg) from the Abilene area south/eastward.
Thunderstorm development will occur first along/north of the primary boundary and the organizing surface low over west TX. Initial storms will likely be supercells capable of very large hail and a few damaging wind gusts. Model solutions are consistent in developing a large bowing cluster of storms that tracks across north-central TX through the evening. These storms will pose a risk of more widespread damaging wind and hail potential across the ENH risk area. Activity is expected to weaken overnight as it approaches the TX middle Gulf Coast.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100542
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Southeast
A mid-level trough will move eastward into the Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Southeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected over most of this moist airmass. Low-level convergence will become maximized near the front, and along coastal convergence boundaries. Thunderstorms that form during the afternoon will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts, mainly due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail will also be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western Illinois.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western Illinois.
Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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