Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050551
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.
Synopsis
An upper low over the Great Lakes is forecast to strengthen through the day today as it merges with a weaker shortwave trough emanating from the mid MS Valley. East of the mid-level cyclone, a belt of enhanced southerly flow aloft will gradually overspread portions of the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard into the evening and overnight hours. A broad surface low over the lower St Lawrence valley will weaken as a second low forms over the eastern Great Lakes. An associated diffuse cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast.
Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic
Ahead of the cold front a moist air mass will remain in place with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Low-level warm air advection will favor cloudiness and only modest buoyancy with continued weak southerly surface winds. The stronger flow aloft is expected to arrive later in the diurnal cycle and will mainly be focused behind the cold front. Given the weak overall forcing and modest buoyancy, relatively isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected. Additional storms may develop along the front later in the evening, but little severe potential is expected owing to the weak buoyancy and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear.
Southern New England
Farther north, a moist but cooler boundary layer will likely be in place ahead of the cold front from MA to southern NY. The humid environment could support very weak buoyancy immediately ahead of the front amid strengthening flow aloft. Frontal forcing is not expected to be overly strong, but could support a shallow convective band ahead of the front late in the evening and overnight. Some potential may exist for intermittent strong gusts to reach the surface, but confidence remains quite low.
OK/TX
A weak vorticity max will move across OK on the southwestern flank of the larger-scale eastern trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050644
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Discussion
An upper low will move slowly east across the Great Lakes with a leading speed max farther east into the Mid Atlantic. Moderate southwest winds and cooling aloft will overspread that region during day, with a surface trough developing from southern New England into the eastern Carolinas.
Ahead of a cold front, southwest low-level winds with 20-30 kt 850 mb speeds will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints from eastern VA southward. Heating will be limited as rain and storms are likely to be ongoing Friday morning from southern New England into Virginia. Increasing large scale ascent will further expand storm coverage by midday into the Carolinas.
A narrow plume of MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is possible ahead of the ongoing activity/outflow, with effective shear of 35-40 kt. A few bowing structures may occur with locally damaging gust, or perhaps a brief tornado. However, the primary mitigating factor will be relatively poor low-level lapse rates.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050814
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Saturday.
Synopsis
An upper low will move across the northeastern states on Saturday with another shortwave aloft diving southeastward across the upper MS Valley. This will support cool conditions as high pressure settles into the MS/OH Valleys, with offshore winds across the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. High pressure will also exist across the Great Basin, behind an upper low dropping southeastward into Mexico. As such, little if any instability will be present to support thunderstorms over land.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050944 SPC AC 050944
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Minimal thunderstorm potential is forecast across the CONUS through the period.
Scattered showers and few elevated thunderstorms may persist over far southern TX on Sun/D4 as a positive-tilt shortwave trough moves out of Mexico an into TX. Lapse rates will generally be poor, with marginal instability and moist profiles aided by east/southeast surface winds. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Otherwise, an active northern stream jet will bring progressive troughs east/southeastward across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid Atlantic, with reinforcing areas of high pressure maintaining stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 11/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 6
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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