Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle to Upper Texas Coast tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101943
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail are possible along the Middle to Upper Texas Coast tonight.
20Z Update
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Weinman.. 11/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026/
TX Coast
Recent surface analysis places an inverted trough just off the Lower TX Coast. Warm-air advection near this trough is supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings show a deep and moist boundary layer atop relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb). Enhanced mid-level flow exists above 700 mb as well, contributing to moderate shear within the cloud bearing layer. These factors could support isolated updrafts capable of marginally severe hail through the early afternoon. Weakening warm-air advection should lead to weakening thunderstorm coverage and intensity during the late afternoon/early evening.
The weak vorticity maximum currently over the TX South Plains will drift southeastward today, interacting with this more moist and buoyant airmass along the coast around 00Z. Ascent associated with this wave coupled with modest warm-air advection will likely result in increasing thunderstorm coverage after 00Z. Mid-level temperatures will cool slightly as well, supporting an increase in the elevated buoyancy across the region. Mid-level flow throughout this layer will remain strong, with cloud-bearing layer shear over 50 kt. These environmental conditions appear supportive of marginally severe hail within any of the more persistent updrafts.
Elsewhere
Occasional lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection that will move quickly east-northeastward across parts of coastal WA today in tandem with another mid-level shortwave trough, but very weak instability will limit the severe threat with this activity. Late afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within the moist confluent flow over the central/southern FL Peninsula.
A few flashes are also possible near the center of the TX vorticity maximum over central/north-central TX this afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm coverage in this region is currently expected to be less than 10 percent.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.
Synopsis
The midlevel flow is expected to amplify on Wednesday as a shortwave trough digs southeast across the Mississippi Valley. This digging trough will help carve out an eastern US long-wave trough at the same time as a ridge builds across the western US.
At the surface a weak surface low will move east from Illinois toward eastern Ohio. To the southwest of this low a surface cold front will push south and east. Low-level moisture will increase slightly ahead of the advancing cold front.
### Lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys
Ahead on the approaching cold front, diurnal heating will combine with increasing surface moisture to result in modest destabilization (REFS indicating around 40-60 percent chance MUCAPE at least 500 J/kg, but less than 10 percent change of exceeding 1000 J/kg) during the late afternoon across the area. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early evening as the cold front interacts with the axis of greater instability. Strong mid-level wind fields may support a few strong, perhaps damaging, wind gusts. Additionally, forecast low-level wind fields indicate modest turning with height across the region, which may support a brief window for a tornado or two. This marginal tornado threat would be highly conditional on the quality of the low-level moisture and degree of instability that is realized.
..Marsh.. 11/10/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101913
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
Synopsis
On Thursday the evolving eastern US longwave trough will continue to be reinforced as a series of midlevel shortwave troughs move through the broader flow. One such trough will overspread the Mid-Atlantic region during the day and into the overnight on Thursday. Large-scale ascent associated with this trough should allow for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic northward along the far southern New England coast.
Despite strengthening low-level wind fields, scant low-level moisture and cool/cold thermal profiles should limit thunderstorm development. One area of potential will be along the Mid-Atlantic where slightly better low-level moisture will reside and along the coastal region of southern New England where low-level thermal and moisture profiles will be modulated by the warmer waters of the Atlantic. Instability should remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across far south Florida where modest instability will reside ahead of an advancing cold front. Tropospheric winds across this area will strengthen in response to the deepening/strengthening eastern US longwave trough. The strengthening wind field may support some potential for a strong or severe thunderstorm across far south Florida before the surface front pushes south of the area. However, at this time concerns with the timing of the frontal passage and when the kinematic fields respond to the upper trough result in confidence of severe being too low to warrant unconditional probabilities at this time.
..Marsh.. 11/10/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, November 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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