Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging winds will be possible today across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181603
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging winds will be possible today across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes.
Upper OH Valley
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing eastward across western OH, associated with a band of widespread clouds and light precipitation. Mostly clear skies are present ahead of the front, where temperatures are warming through the 70s. This will lead to a corridor of marginal afternoon instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorm intensification along the front. Forecast soundings show strong mid-level winds and steep low-level lapse rates, supportive of strong downdrafts in any vigorous convection. However, CAM guidance is consistent in showing very few organized/strong storms through the day. Will maintain the SLGT risk for the conditional risk of a few damaging wind events, but with limited confidence.
TX
Isolated intense thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning in the post-frontal regime across central TX. These storms have produced hail and gusty winds for several hours. It appears likely that this scenario will shift eastward and weaken early this afternoon as the primary upper jet moves into AR and away from the region, but will maintain the MRGL risk area for a few more hours and extend it into parts of AR/LA.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 04/18/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Discussion
An amplified midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves off the Eastern Seaboard and the FL Peninsula. Preceding the trough, large-scale ascent will support isolated/elevated thunderstorms across coastal New England into the afternoon. Similarly, a couple thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front over coastal NC and farther south over the central/southern FL Peninsula (aided by an Atlantic sea breeze), though much of this activity may develop offshore. Farther west over the lower Great Lakes, lapse rates will quickly steepen beneath the core of the midlevel trough, and sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy will support a couple thunderstorms – given increasing ascent in the left-exit region of a midlevel jet.
Finally, isolated/elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a post-frontal air mass across southwest TX, where weak warm-air advection will develop amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.
..Weinman.. 04/18/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181915
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.
Discussion
A midlevel trough will move from the Northeast off the New England coast on Monday, while the tail end of a related cold front continues southward into the Caribbean Sea. North of the front in southern FL, diurnal heating amid a moist post-frontal air mass should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, though weak buoyancy and limited large-scale forcing for ascent should limit the severe risk.
Farther west, weak low-level warm advection and modest moisture return ahead of a low-amplitude midlevel impulse moving into south TX will support a couple rounds of isolated/elevated thunderstorms across southwest TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential could spread further north into central TX late in the period, though confidence in this scenario is currently low. Additional diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest as the midlevel moisture impinges on the region, with most of this activity expected over the higher terrain.
..Weinman.. 04/18/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180740 SPC AC 180740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday, lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears unlikely on D5.
A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day 6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern evolves.
The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear before a 15% area can be defined for these days.
..Bentley.. 04/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180740 SPC AC 180740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday, lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears unlikely on D5.
A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day 6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern evolves.
The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear before a 15% area can be defined for these days.
..Bentley.. 04/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180740 SPC AC 180740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday, lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears unlikely on D5.
A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day 6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern evolves.
The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear before a 15% area can be defined for these days.
..Bentley.. 04/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180740 SPC AC 180740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday, lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears unlikely on D5.
A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day 6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern evolves.
The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear before a 15% area can be defined for these days.
..Bentley.. 04/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 23 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180740 SPC AC 180740
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday, lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears unlikely on D5.
A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day 6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern evolves.
The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear before a 15% area can be defined for these days.
..Bentley.. 04/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, April 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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