Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts of central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110030
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts of central Texas.
Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas
As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the degree of instability.
Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow dominant system.
The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the boundary layer.
..Mead.. 05/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.
Overview
As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low that will move east along the front.
### Southeast US
Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning. Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida.
Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal wind threat.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into southern Wisconsin.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into southern Wisconsin.
Overview
The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.
At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada, across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
### Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin
Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to incorporate this potential.
### Central and South Florida
A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries (including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall wind threat.
### Interior Pacific Northwest
A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, May 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, May 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100842 SPC AC 100842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and become substantially amplified. Ahead of the trough, enough instability is expected to develop in the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon for an isolated severe threat.
On Thursday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. An axis of instability appears likely to develop in the Great Plains in the wake of the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible along parts of this instability corridor Thursday afternoon, model forecasts suggest a cap will minimize convective coverage.
The ridge is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the north-central states. Isolated severe storms could occur ahead of this trough in the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon. Additionally, a conditional severe threat could develop southward into the southern and central Plains, but this would materialize only if storms can initiate in a somewhat capped environment.
Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8
On Saturday and Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to gradually advect northward across the southern and central Plains. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each afternoon over parts of this airmass. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain limited and convective initiation will likely be mesoscale-driven. For this reason, predictability is low over the weekend concerning any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 05/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 10
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game