Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms will severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in central Wisconsin and in parts of the Northwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280056
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in central Wisconsin and in parts of the Northwest.
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians
An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving southeastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is advancing southward across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range from eastern Kentucky eastward into southern Virginia and across much of North Carolina. Within this area, scattered thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat are ongoing. Forecast soundings in the Mid-Atlantic early this evening have moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. This suggests the potential for severe wind gusts will continue for a couple more hours with the more organized clusters.
Central Wisconsin
At the surface, a pocket of moisture and instability is located over central Wisconsin early this evening, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability max have 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and sufficient deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible for another hour or so.
Northwest
At mid-levels, a low is evident on water vapor imagery over central California, and flow is from the southeast and east over much of the northwestern U.S. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of a band of strong large-scale ascent from far northern California into south-central Oregon. The environment is characterized by moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates, suggesting a threat for isolated severe wind gusts will continue. Additional storms are ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability in northern Idaho and western Montana, where a few severe wind gusts will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 05/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible on Thursday over portions of the Columbia Basin with more isolated storms across the broader Northwest region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with some threat for large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible on Thursday over portions of the Columbia Basin with more isolated storms across the broader Northwest region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with some threat for large hail.
Synopsis
A mid-level shortwave trough currently on the western periphery of the broader mid-level low across California at mid-day Wednesday will move around the low-pressure center and emerge across the Northwest on Thursday. East of this low, a strong mid-level ridge will be maintained across the central CONUS with a mid-level trough in the east. This pattern will result in a mostly nebulous surface pattern other than a more defined area of high pressure across the Great Lakes.
Northwest
Low-level moisture will increase across the Columbia Basin Wednesday and Thursday, primarily from the northeasterly surface flow. This moisture, combined with cooling air aloft and robust surface heating, will result in abnormally large instability across the region. In fact, the GFS/NAM/RAP forecast soundings show record-high MLCAPE values at OTX tomorrow afternoon. Given the climatological extreme of these values, it seems unlikely to be as high as forecast (1500-2000 J/kg). However, even 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE would result in an environment favorable for severe storms, particularly across northern Oregon and south-central Washington where even the HRRR shows 1000 to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (near 9 C/km) and moderate shear will also support organized severe storms.
The timing of the mid-level shortwave trough emerging across Oregon appears to be well-timed with afternoon peak heating. Therefore, expect storms to initially form across east-central Oregon and move north-northwestward through the evening. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows upscale growth into a linear segment which would likely support a damaging wind threat, particularly given the steep lapse rate environment. For these reasons, have upgraded to a Level 2 Slight Risk across portions of the Columbia Basin.
Expanded the wind probabilities across the Cascades slightly as the environment appears to be favorable to the west of the crests. However, it appears the marine layer should move into areas such as Portland prior to the arrival of the storms. Therefore, have kept severe probabilities east of this zone where the marine layer will likely have a stabilizing effect.
..Bentley.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered storms may produce large hail from eastern New Mexico and western Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana on Friday. Strong to severe storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered storms may produce large hail from eastern New Mexico and western Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana on Friday. Strong to severe storms may also occur across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central High Plains.
Synopsis
A closed low across the Great Basin will become an open wave and start to advance northeast toward the central Rockies. As this occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and central High Plains and into eastern Montana. A strong mid-level trough will move southward across eastern Canada into the Northeast.
Western Montana
Weak to moderate instability will build across western Montana on Friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level temperatures cool. Mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 30 to 40 knots across western Montana which will provide sufficient shear for storm organization. The Marginal Risk was expanded slightly to account for the likely extent of the threat given the 12Z guidance.
Central Plains
Surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This will lead to weak to moderate instability across the region. In addition to typical terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level shortwave trough may emerge across the region and provide additional support for storm development. Shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse rates will support some threat for severe wind gusts.
Southern Plains into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana
A southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This ~40 knot jet streak will overspread portions of the southern High Plains and the dryline. This should provide ample shear for storm organization during the afternoon/evening. Greater storm coverage and severe potential may exist between Midland and Lubbock at the nose of this stronger mid-level flow. However, there is still some uncertainty with the timing/location of this jet streak, so will not add higher probabilities at this time.
Added 5% probabilities farther east across Oklahoma and into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Moderate instability is expected south of a frontal zone in this general area. This may be a focus for storm development Friday afternoon/evening. Shear may be somewhat weak, but the instability and frontal focus could support a few strong to severe storms.
..Bentley.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, June 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, June 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.
Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.
..Jewell.. 05/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, May 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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