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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and western Illinois.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 031248

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and western Illinois.

Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois

Ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this morning is being aided by low-level warm advection, and is expected to remain sub-severe as it tracks eastward into a less unstable airmass. A belt of 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will be maintained today across parts of the southern/central Plains as a shortwave trough ejects eastward over this region though the period. A weak surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening as low-level moisture streams northward across TX/OK into the Ozarks and southern IL. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to be suppressed across the southern/central Plains through much of the afternoon into early evening owing to the presence of a stout low-level inversion. One exception may be near the front/dryline intersection in southwest to central OK, where MLCIN should become minimal by peak afternoon heating. Here, some guidance suggests a low chance for a robust thunderstorm or two to develop and track northeastward along/near the I-44 corridor while posing an isolated hail threat. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly southward to account for this possibility. Otherwise, gradually increasing large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough and strengthening low-level warm/moist advection should encourage the development of elevated thunderstorms north of the front, mainly after 04/06Z. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030700

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southern Missouri. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Southern Plains and Ozarks

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly southeastward across north-central Texas, southeast Oklahoma and south-central Missouri. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by midday. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support convective initiation along the front during the mid to late afternoon. More isolated development should take place south of the front across the moist sector. During the late afternoon and early evening, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to organize along and ahead of the front.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward to Fort Smith, Arkansas have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/k range with 0-6 km shear up to 40 knots. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercells and large hail, especially early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete. During the early to mid evening, the storms should organize into a line. This may result an increased wind-damage potential. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with supercells and rotating cells within the line. This line should persist and move into the western Ozarks during the evening as a low-level jet strengthens.

Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across much of the east-central U.S. An axis of moisture and instability will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Near this axis of instability, low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. This will create lift, supporting scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Forecast soundings along and near this axis in the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be present. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep, generally in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support an isolated large hail threat with cells that rotate. A marginal wind-damage threat may develop further west in the mid Mississippi Valley, where a few surface-based storms will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail, isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. Marginally severe storms may also develop from Thursday evening into the overnight across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030830

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail, isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. Marginally severe storms may also develop from Thursday evening into the overnight across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley

At mid-levels, flow will become southwesterly across the Great Plains on Thursday, as a strong low pressure system moves though the Intermountain West. At the surface, a low will deepen across eastern Colorado, as south-southeasterly flow strengthens across the southern and central Plains. Low-level moisture will advect northward across Oklahoma, northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop across west Texas as a thermal/instability axis sets up over west-central Texas. Scattered storms are expected to initiate near the dryline on the Caprock in the late afternoon, moving eastward into the southern Plains during the early evening. As moisture advection continues, additional storms should develop further north into far southern Kansas during the evening.

Late afternoon forecast soundings in west Texas from Big Spring to Childress have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. A tornado threat, along with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the most intense cells. The storms are expected to move eastward into western Oklahoma and the Lower Rolling Plains of northwest Texas during the evening, with additional cells developing across southern Kansas. The strengthening low-level jet will help sustain a threat for hail and severe gusts.

Further north across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, moisture and instability will gradually increase during the evening as a low-level jet strengthens. Scattered elevated storms are expected to develop near the low-level jet around midnight and should increase in coverage during the overnight period. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range should be favorable for hail. The severe threat is expected to persist through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 3

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Wednesday, March 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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