Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states into southwest New England.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081605
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states into southwest New England.
Northeast States
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over OH tracking eastward. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of the trough, with pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg expected later today. Large scale forcing associated with the trough is rather weak, and overall coverage of storms may be rather isolated. However, stronger winds aloft than yesterday suggest a conditional risk of wind damage with any sustained storm later today. Have extended the SLGT risk area a little farther north into NY/MA where morning model guidance suggests higher coverage/confidence in storms. Have also extended the MRGL farther west into OH beneath the upper trough where widely scattered storms may also produce gusty/damaging winds.
Western NC
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form off the mountains of western NC and vicinity, and track slowly southeastward. Strong daytime heating, humid conditions, and sufficient CAPE may promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores.
North TX
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along an E-W axis across north TX this afternoon in a hot/humid air mass. The strongest of these slow-moving cells may produce damaging winds.
NE/KS
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing over central NE. This activity may persist into the afternoon, tracking southeastward toward northeast KS/northwest MO. Given the corridor of high CAPE in this zone, a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail are possible.
ND/SD/MN/IA
A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likely lead to scattered thunderstorms tonight after midnight over central ND. These storms are expected to develop southeastward into parts of SD/MN/IA before 12z. Relatively strong vertical shear will support supercells capable of hail and damaging winds.
AZ
Full sunshine and sufficient CAPE will once again promote thunderstorm develop off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show increasing mid-level moisture through the evening as an upper trough passes to the south, perhaps aiding convective maintenance westward into the lower elevations. If so, given the favorable steering flow, strong/severe outflow winds could spread into the PHX area around 00z. This scenario will be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT in later outlooks.
..Hart/Weinman.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and southeast Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080630
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and southeast Arizona.
Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes
Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm development will confined to areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana, suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.
Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.
Maine
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an isolated wind-damage threat.
Southern Appalachians
Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the 1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon.
Southeast Arizona
Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday from parts of northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday from parts of northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.
Southern Great Lakes
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region on Monday. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from northern Illinois eastward into northwestern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front are forecast to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by midday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop near the front by early afternoon, with the storms moving southeastward into the unstable air. To the south of the front, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition, the models show moderate deep-layer shear in place which will most likely support a mixed mode, with supercells and short intense line segments capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat could continue into the mid to late evening if a cold pool can become established and persist.
Central and Northern Plains/Midwest
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen over South Dakota as a cold front moves through the northern Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of strong instability appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Nebraska eastward into Iowa, where model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings show directional shear in the low to mid-levels, which will contribute to moderate deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector. This environment should support an isolated severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Due to relatively weak large-scale ascent, convective coverage is expected to be isolated, with any severe threat remaining localized.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.
Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8
From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.
..Broyles.. 08/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, August 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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