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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, December 23
Wednesday, December 24
Thursday, December 25
Friday, December 26
Saturday, December 27
Sunday, December 28
Monday, December 29
Tuesday, December 30

Outlook for Tuesday, December 23

Outlook Summary

An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal California.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231945

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA

### SUMMARY

An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal California.

20Z Update

Relatively minor adjustments to the general thunder forecast were made based on the latest observations and model guidance. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional information.

..Wendt.. 12/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025/

California

Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward and approach the CA Coast late tonight/early Wednesday morning. A corresponding strengthening and increase in the flow through much of the troposphere is anticipated late in the period, with a surface low also forecast to deepen along/near the coast of northern CA. A cold front attendant to this surface low will sweep quickly eastward, and should be approaching/onshore across parts of coastal northern/central CA by 12Z early Wednesday morning. Current expectations are for the thermodynamic profile to remain mostly saturated, with poor lapse rates generally limiting instability. Even so, it appears that a gradual increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front and slightly cooling mid-level temperatures with the approach of the shortwave trough may support weak but sufficient MUCAPE for an organized band of low-topped thunderstorms late tonight.

Most guidance suggests this convection will not impact parts of coastal CA until after 24/06Z, and there is still significant uncertainty whether enough boundary-layer instability will be present to support surface-based convection. There is also a signal for pre-frontal convection in the low-level warm advection regime across parts of central into coastal southern CA. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow forecast, and related strong low-level/deep-layer shear, it appears that convectively enhanced winds may be capable of reaching severe levels and producing damage on an isolated basis even if instability remains minimal. A brief tornado may also occur if convection can become truly surface based, as effective SRH will be enhanced by a 50-70 kt southerly low-level jet. Based on latest guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded southward along the coast to include more of central/southern CA. This isolated severe threat is expected to continue beyond 12Z Wednesday into the Day 2 period.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 24

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231724

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley.

California Coast

West of an imposing upper ridge building over the central US, deep troughing will intensify Wednesday and Wednesday night over the eastern Pacific. Several embedded disturbances will track onshore over parts of the West Coast. Strong ascent and strengthening onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization, first near the southern CA coast/LA Basin and eventually farther north and inland.

A band of storms will likely be ongoing over southern CA and adjacent waters early Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft (1km AGL wind 50+ kt) may mix to the surface supporting strong gusts and the potential for a brief tornado. A second more potent shortwave and surface low (sub 985 mb) will intensify and move near the central/northern CA Coast into early Thursday. A broken, low-topped band of storms along the advancing cold front may eventually move onshore overnight with a risk for occasional strong gusts.

San Joaquin Valley

Across central CA, cold mid-level temperatures (-24 to -27 C), strong height falls and the left exit of a 100+ kt mid-level jet will overspread 50s F surface dewpoints across the northern and central San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model soundings show modest MUCAPE (max around 500 J/kg) amid veering wind profiles and enlarged hodographs. Despite the limited buoyancy, a few semi-organized supercells are possible. Damaging gusts, hail and a brief tornado are possible with the strongest storms before convection gradually moves eastward into the higher terrain and weakens.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Thursday, December 25

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and southern California Coast.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231922

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and southern California Coast.

California

Large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across the CA coast and move onshore Thursday and Thursday night. Within the broader trough, several embedded impulses will move onshore within strong southwesterly mid-level flow. One of these stronger impulses will start the day moving onshore over northern CA before quickly lifting north into southern OR. A strong surface low and cold front associated with this impulse will move quickly toward the coast prior to 12z Thursday. A band of low-topped storms along the front may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and persist for a few hours Thursday morning. Confidence in sufficient buoyancy for a sustained severe threat farther inland is low. Still, strong low to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado early along the coast.

The severe threat will likely shift southeastward toward southern CA coast through the day as a second mid-level impulse and the main core of the upper trough approach. Strong onshore flow and persistent low-level moisture transport will allow for weak destabilization near the coast during the afternoon and continuing into the evening. 90+ kt of mid-level flow and locally enlarged hodographs could allow for occasional stronger storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado despite the weak buoyancy.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Friday, December 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 26 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 27 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, December 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 26 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 27 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, December 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 26 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 27 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, December 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 26 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 27 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, December 30

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, December 26 potential too low
Day 5 Saturday, December 27 potential too low
Day 6 Sunday, December 28 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, December 29 potential too low
Day 8 Tuesday, December 30 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230941 SPC AC 230941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

From Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard. During this time, a trough is forecast to develop in the Pacific Northwest, and then to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F should result in weak destabilization with thunderstorm development possible along the front. However, the models suggest that most of the convection will be post-frontal. This limitation should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8, the trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic, with the front moving off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, a relatively dry and cool airmass will make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of the nation.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 23
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, December 24
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, December 25
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, December 26
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 27
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 28
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 29
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 30
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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