Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111541
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
SYNOPSIS
A deepening upper trough over the northeast states will help a cold front sag southward across GA/SC this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the front, but no severe storms are anticipated. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from central CA into much of the Great Basin.
..Hart/Thornton.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
A deep, positively tilted upper trough is expected to extend from the northern Intermountain West southwestward off the central CA Coast and into the eastern Pacific early Thursday. This trough is forecast to progress slowly southeastward throughout the day, while trending towards a more neutral tilt as a strong shortwave trough rounds its base. Another embedded shortwave trough is expected to move southward along the central CA coast before pivoting more southeastward towards southern CA late Thursday/early Friday. Overall evolution of this system will likely result in troughing from the western Great Basin into the west-central Pacific by 12Z Friday.
Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected from the Great Basin into the central Rockies downstream of this deepening trough. Additionally, persistent southwesterly flow aloft will contribute to some low-level moistening beneath these cooling mid-level temperatures. Combination of these factors will result in modest buoyancy and deep/persistent enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Highest coverage is expected across north-central UT.
Surface ridging is expected across much of the central and eastern CONUS early Thursday, although a weak surface low will likely be over southeast CO. This low may deepen slightly throughout the day while also dropping gradually southward in northeast NM and the northwest TX Panhandle. Some modest moisture return is anticipated east/southeast of this low across central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints forecast along the TX Gulf Coast by Friday morning. However, warm temperatures aloft will preclude deep convection within this modifying airmass.
..Mosier.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas.
Synopsis
Positively tilted upper troughing is expected to extend from the western Great Basin southwestward into the east-central Pacific Ocean early Friday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this larger troughing. The southernmost shortwave trough expected to progress quickly eastward through the base of the parent troughing before then pivoting more northeastward at it moves into the eastern periphery of the troughing over northern Mexico. The northernmost shortwave trough will be less progressive at it moves across southern CA and the Lower CO Valley. Evolution of the system will likely result in a relatively consolidated southern-stream trough extending from the central High Plains southwestward through northern Mexico by early Saturday.
West TX
Downstream mass response will result in considerable airmass modification across the southern Plains ahead of this system, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching through much of west TX by Friday evening. Afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low 70s, which will combine with the increasing moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures to support modest buoyancy (i.e. 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE). The stronger forcing for ascent associated with the approaching wave will likely lag peak heating slightly, but a few surface-based storms are still possible amid weak capping and low-level convergence. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by modest low-level southeasterlies and moderate/strong southwesterlies aloft, suggest that any storms that do develop could organize and become severe. Large hail would be the primary hazard.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase as stronger ascent associated attendant to the approaching wave and a strengthening low-level jet arrives during the evening. Given anticipated nocturnal stabilization, much of this activity will likely be elevated, but strong deep-layer shear could still support updrafts capable of isolated hail.
Northwest TX into OK
Strengthening low-level southerly flow and moistening low levels ahead of the approaching wave will contribute to increasing showers and thunderstorms from northwest TX into much of OK Friday evening and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy, but moderate vertical shear could still contribute to a few stronger updrafts capable of small hail. Severe coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 5%.
..Mosier.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast
An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.
Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Mon-Wed
Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, February 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, February 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, February 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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