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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, August 10
Tuesday, August 11
Wednesday, August 12
Thursday, August 13
Friday, August 14
Saturday, August 15
Sunday, August 16
Monday, August 17

Outlook for Monday, August 10

Outlook Summary

Damaging gusts will continue with a cluster of storms progressing across the Mid Atlantic area this afternoon. Several other severe wind/hail producing storms remain possible across the Ohio Valley. A severe wind swath, with a few 75+ mph gusts is possible across portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest tonight. A few severe gusts may also occur this evening over central and southern Arizona.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101920

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC…AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Damaging gusts will continue with a cluster of storms progressing across the Mid Atlantic area this afternoon. Several other severe wind/hail producing storms remain possible across the Ohio Valley. A severe wind swath, with a few 75+ mph gusts is possible across portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest tonight. A few severe gusts may also occur this evening over central and southern Arizona.

20Z Update

The main change made to this outlook was to upgrade portions of SD into MN and IA to a Category 3/Enhanced risk, driven by 30 percent/CIG1 probabilities. Confidence is increasing that robust supercell/multicellular development this evening will result in the upscale growth of a cold-pool-driven MCS tonight. The best time for the wind swath will be in the 03-09Z period. 8.5-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (aligned normal to forecast MCS orientation) will favor a swath of severe gusts from at least central SD into northern IA tonight. There is some chance that the wind swath may continue to the IA/IL/WI border by 12Z Tuesday morning, hence the joining of the two Slight risk areas along the MS River. Given such steep mid-level lapse rates, at least a few 75+ mph gusts are possible, even if storms remain more supercellular or multicellular. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may also occur with initial storms, and a tornado could develop either with initial supercells, or line-embedded mesovortices should a bow echo form. Severe wind/hail probabilities and CIG1 areas were also expanded farther west across the central High Plains for the possibility of a 2+ inch diameter hail instance or a 75+ mph gust (given the aforementioned lapse rates/shear).

Additionally, 30 percent severe wind probabilities were expanded to the East Coast ahead of an ongoing cold-pool-driven MCS, where numerous wind damage reports continue to be received. Finally, several other minor adjustments were made to the ongoing severe and thunder probabilities to account for the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 08/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026/

PA/NY/NJ

Multiple clusters and lines of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from western PA. So far, this activity has produced limited severe wind gusts due to weak low-level lapse rates. However, continued heating over central/eastern PA will eventually allow the storms to be more efficient wind-producers with locally damaging gusts expected. See MD #1894 for further details.

OH/WV

A secondary cluster of storms over central OH is tracking southeastward in a moderately sheared environment. Rapid heating is occurring to the southwest of this cluster, which should result in intensification by mid afternoon. Storms will likely spread into northern WV with a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.

SD/MN/IA

A large reservoir of unstable air will reside across much of SD today, with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and dewpoints in the upper 60s. A capping inversion should preclude sustained convection until after 00z when strengthening southerly low-level flow and warm advection will aid initiation. Supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected, with eventual upscale organization into a bowing MCS possible through the evening/night.

CO/KS

Most model guidance shows the likelihood of scattered high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon over northeast CO, spreading into northwest KS and southwest NE this evening. Cloud cover is somewhat limiting heating, but sufficient CAPE and winds aloft may promote a period of damaging wind potential later today.

AZ

Another round of evening thunderstorms is expected to initiate off the higher terrain of east-central AZ and spread westward toward the TUS/PHX metro areas. Parameters remain conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any sustained/organized clusters of storms that may develop.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 11

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the northern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101731

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…AND OVER THE DAKOTAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible Tuesday from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the northern Plains.

From eastern IA into IL…IN…OH…Northern KY…WV

Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region on Tuesday, while a large area of moisture and instability remain in place. Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible throughout the region, with some uncertainty regarding timing and placement. However, the corridor of highest wind damage probability appears to be tied to early day storms which will be moving across IA. Several models suggest an organized MCS early on Tuesday, which would then proceed east/southeast during the day. This scenario seems plausible as instability will be strong with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer mean wind speeds. A few significant wind gusts over 75 mph may occur, depending on MCS organization. Additional late day cells may redevelop along any trailing outflow, affecting areas from northern KY into WV and western VA with damaging gusts potential.

Dakotas into MN and IA

A surface trough will develop during the afternoon as strong heating occurs, beneath moderate northwest flow aloft. Storms are expected to form after 21Z from the Black Hills into western ND, proceeding east/southeast into the central Dakotas and northern NE through the evening. Deep-layer shear around 40 kt and substantial instability will favor cells capable of large hail.

There is significant uncertainly in whether storms will aggregate into an MCS, which could potentially spread into more of southern MN and IA Wednesday morning. If this occurs, damaging winds would be possible.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 12

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Areas of severe wind gusts will also be possible over a large area from mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Areas of severe wind gusts will also be possible over a large area from mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.

Northern High Plains

Modest westerly winds aloft will exist over the central High Plains on Wednesday, with a surface low developing near the CO/KS border. Easterly surface winds north of the low across NE will maintain moisture and instability into the High Plains, and, maximize directional shear with height. Storms will form over the High Plains and move eastward through the evening. Hail may occur initially, with damaging gusts possible during the evening. Capping will become a concern with eastward extend across NE, but the 40 kt low-level jet may aid longevity.

From IA to NC

Substantial uncertainty exists on Wednesday due to likely areas of ongoing storms and impacts on daytime redevelopment. That said, the northwest flow regime aloft will persist across the Midwest and extending across the Appalachians, with an embedded shortwave trough moving southeastward toward the OH Valley. This may help focus an areas of storms across parts of IN/OH/KY. However, areas of early day storms are also likely across parts of the region, which will have an impact on severe potential. As such, will maintain a broad 5% Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, August 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, August 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, August 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, August 16 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, August 17 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, August 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, August 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, August 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, August 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, August 16 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, August 17 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, August 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, August 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, August 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, August 16 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, August 17 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, August 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, August 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, August 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, August 16 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, August 17 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, August 13 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, August 14 predictability too low
Day 6 Saturday, August 15 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, August 16 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, August 17 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 10
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Tuesday, August 11
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, August 12
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, August 13
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 16
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 17
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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