Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, January 7
Outlook Summary
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071617
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma.
Southwest TX into Central OK
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX by early Thursday morning.
A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight, strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of localized severe gusts.
..Smith/Wendt.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070700
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS Valley
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning, resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated, but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into southeast KS.
With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy, but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.
Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak, low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive, while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late afternoon into part of Thursday night.
Arizona
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe threat.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Summary
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070830
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.
Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the lower Ohio Valley.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.
Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet. The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible, especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area, where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, January 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday
Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.
Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.
D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday
The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, January 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, January 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, January 9
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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