Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 092034
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
No changes.
..Hart.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/
Synopsis and Discussion
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL today.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091646
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.
Synopsis
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep convection is expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 091848
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through Thursday night.
Synopsis
In the wake of multiple cold frontal intrusions across the central and eastern CONUS, generally dry and stable conditions are expected on Thursday, with negligible thunderstorm potential. Early-stage moisture return may commence across parts of Deep South TX and the adjacent coastal plain, but in the absence of any appreciable ascent, deep convection is not expected through the end of the period.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.
Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.
Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.
..Kerr.. 12/09/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, December 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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