Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, July 15
Outlook Summary
There is a conditional risk for severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible in northern New England, the northern Rockies, and Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150552
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND…THE MID-ATLANTIC…NORTHERN ROCKIES…AND ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
There is a conditional risk for severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible in northern New England, the northern Rockies, and Arizona.
Synopsis
A high-over-low blocking pattern will remain anchored over central North America with an embedded shortwave trough and associated 70 kt mid-level jet streak translating through New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. That system will be attended by a surface front, which will settle south into the central Mid-Atlantic during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
### Mid-Atlantic
Temperatures in the 90s to around 100 are forecast south of the front, which coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The strongest height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough are expected to remain north of the surface frontal zone, and as a result, the extent of thunderstorm development along the boundary remains uncertain. Another factor that could limit storm development is the potential for instability reduction along the front due to the existence of wildfire smoke, as depicted in recent HRRR runs.
Given the uncertainty in storm initiation and sustenance, a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained with this forecast. However, on the condition that surface-based storms develop, the presence of seasonably strong mid-level winds and resultant 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds.
### Northern New England
Within the zone of strongest forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough, a band of low-topped showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop during the afternoon amidst a marginally unstable environment. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a unidirectional wind profile with 35-40 kt winds as low as 1.5-2.0 km AGL will support the potential for locally damaging wind gusts.
### South-central Montana and north-central Wyoming
Heating along the high terrain coupled with the glancing influence of a subtle disturbance is expected to foster widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms amidst a moderately unstable air mass featuring a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer. A number of the 00Z CAMs indicate the potential for some cold pool organization with an attendant risk for isolated severe wind gusts into the evening.
### Arizona
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected from the Colorado and San Francisco Plateaus into the Sonoran Desert amidst a moderately unstable air mass with a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. That thermodynamic environment will be supportive of isolated strong downbursts; however, more organized severe wind gust potential is expected to be limited by the weak vertical shear that is forecast.
..Mead/Lyons.. 07/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, July 16
Outlook Summary
Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Montana Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150558
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Montana Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An expansive mid-level ridge will remain in place across much of the CONUS on Thursday. On the western side of the ridge, a closed mid-level low will lift northward, helping to raise mid-level heights northward into Canada. On the eastern side of the ridge, a strong mid-level trough will move across New England, within the basal region of a long-wave trough centered across northern Quebec and extending southward along the east coast of North America.
At the surface, a frontal boundary across the northern Mid-Atlantic region will delineate a moist airmass to the south from a slightly less moist airmass to the north. A secondary front will push south across New England associated with the passing mid-level wave. This secondary front will bring a reinforcing shot of seasonably cool, dry air.
### Western Montana
This area will be on the eastern periphery of a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the lifting eastern Pacific mid-level low. This large-scale ascent will combine with surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs and surface temperatures in the upper-80Fs to low-90Fs to support scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Relatively long hodographs and MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will support a marginal threat for large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows. Should the number of thunderstorms be greater than currently anticipated, higher severe probabilities may become necessary.
### Mid-Atlantic Region
This evening's (20260715 00UTC) HREF shows afternoon temperatures riding to near 100F in the presence of surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60Fs. This combination results in ensemble mean MLCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg. As the aforementioned surface boundary moves south during the afternoon and evening, isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front. Steep low-level lapse rates would support some wind damage potential should these storms develop.
However, the 20260715 00UTC HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecasts show a dense ribbon of smoke stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid Atlantic. Should this ribbon of dense smoke materialize, afternoon high temperatures would likely be lower than expected, and low- and mid-level lapse rates weaker than forecast. This in turn would lower atmospheric buoyancy and may limit thunderstorm coverage and/or intensity.
Given the already marginal nature of the severe potential absent the presence of smoke, the uncertainty introduced by the presence of smoke results in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time. This area will continued to be re-evaluated with subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, July 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, July 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, July 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, July 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, July 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, July 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, July 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that the US mid-level pattern will transition from a CONUS-wide ridge centered over the north-central US to a western US ridge and eastern US trough. However the details of how this transition evolves are still uncertain.
The general pattern through the forecast period will favor northwest flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas north and east from there. Individual members of the ensemble suite, including the control members, show several small vorticity/speed maxima moving through the flow this weekend in quick succession, with significant variability in the strength of these waves. Ensemble guidance does have support for a more substantial shortwave trough moving through the area, but differ on when this will occur. For example, both the control runs of the ECMWF and GFS have a stronger wave moving across the Great Lakes, but the GFS does so on Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF does so on Monday and Tuesday.
Thus, while the overall pattern will favor thunderstorm development, perhaps in relatively quick succession, uncertainty is too high to highlight any severe areas with confidence at current lead times.
..Marsh.. 07/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, July 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, July 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, July 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, July 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, July 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, July 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game