Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, February 12

Friday, February 13

Saturday, February 14

Sunday, February 15

Monday, February 16

Tuesday, February 17

Wednesday, February 18

Thursday, February 19

Outlook for Thursday, February 12

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121239

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.

Great Basin

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 13

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas into far southwest Oklahoma.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120612

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours across portions of western Texas into far southwest Oklahoma.

Texas and Oklahoma

A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK. Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into central OK.

Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening, and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization. Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk with convection over western TX into far southwest OK, though a couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are surface-based.

Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK. A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 14

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120809

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard.

OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will be oriented from the central High Plains to the Southern Rockies and northern Mexico Saturday morning. The trough will progress eastward through the period, extending from the Ozarks to the western Gulf Coast by early Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle/western OK will modestly deepen as it shifts east toward northern MS through the period and a trailing cold front advancing southeast across the region. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 60-80 kt 500 mb jet, will overspread the region by afternoon into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet across OK/TX early in the period will intensify with eastward extent after 00z. Forecast guidance depicts 40-50 kt 850mb southwesterly flow over AR/LA/MS/AL after dark.

Most guidance maintains surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F across the region, with perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints hugging the immediate Gulf Coast. Midlevel cooling atop moistening low to midlevels will support modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), especially over portions of TX/OK into western LA/southwest AR. Instability is likely to wane somewhat with eastward extent overnight as lapse rates weaken, nocturnal boundary layer stabilization occurs, along with convection possibly outpacing better moisture return.

Overall, at least some isolated risk for severe storms appears possible across a broad area from central/southeast OK into central/eastern TX, eastward toward the Lower MS Valley. Initial thunderstorms development is likely to be cells/clusters near the surface low and trailing cold front over OK/TX. As the low deepens and front shifts east, increasing ascent and strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will favor a transition to a linear/QLCS mode. Strong gusts will likely be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120906 SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun – Deep South/Southeast

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day 4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread heavy rain.

Days 5-8

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However, forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120906 SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun – Deep South/Southeast

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day 4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread heavy rain.

Days 5-8

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However, forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120906 SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun – Deep South/Southeast

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day 4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread heavy rain.

Days 5-8

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However, forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120906 SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun – Deep South/Southeast

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day 4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread heavy rain.

Days 5-8

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However, forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120906 SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun – Deep South/Southeast

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day 4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread heavy rain.

Days 5-8

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However, forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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