Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 8
Outlook Summary
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090045
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
01z Update
Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable.
Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be noted with the most robust storms.
..Darrow.. 01/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, January 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward across the OH and TN Valleys – stalling with southward extent across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm advection along/ahead of the front – within an environment characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy. Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.
Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period. Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave development farther south near LA.
Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast) will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear (with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters – posing a risk of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central MS.
Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon, where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and severe hail.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia
Within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across the eastern half of the CONUS, a robust midlevel jet will advance northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast – while phasing with an upstream trough and related midlevel jet. An accompanying frontal wave/weak surface cyclone – initially over the TN Valley – will track northeastward along a remnant frontal zone toward the Northeast in tandem with the midlevel jet.
At the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast, along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. While buoyancy will be somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern AL), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of damaging gusts and a tornado. While uncertain, there appears to be a corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of south-central AL into GA, and this area continues to be monitored for a potential upgrade.
Thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. Buoyancy will become limited with northward extent, though the northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado with any stronger storms that spread into the Carolinas and southern VA.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, January 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, January 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, January 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, January 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.
A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, January 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, January 10
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, January 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, January 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, January 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, January 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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