Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. General thunderstorm activity is most likely from lower Michigan into Pennsylvania, and from parts of California into the Great Basin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260542
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today. General thunderstorm activity is most likely from lower Michigan into Pennsylvania, and from parts of California into the Great Basin.
Synopsis and Discussion
A slow-moving positive tilt upper trough will move across CA and into the Great Basin through tonight, with a weakening surface low dropping southeastward into northern CA. Modest southwest flow aloft will support continued moist conditions with areas of more concentrated rain and embedded thunderstorms. In general, veering low-level winds and/or weak instability will likely preclude much of a severe thunderstorm risk, though stronger gusts may occur coincident with shallow convection in favored areas of terrain across parts of CA.
To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley during the day and toward the Mid Atlantic late, with a plume of 50s F dewpoints surging into OH. Several hundred J/kg elevated MUCAPE will develop, supporting scattered thunderstorms. While deep-layer effective shear may support cellular storm mode, generally weak instability levels are unlikely to support severe hail.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.
Midwest
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible on Saturday night/early morning Sunday, within a broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of an expansive positive-tilt upper trough across the West. Guidance does differ in the degree of coverage prior to 12Z Sunday, with greater convective potential expected on D3. This appears largely tied to the degree large-scale ascent and attendant moistening/removal of prior inhibition. Small hail seems plausible given adequate effective bulk shear, centered on the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. But meager elevated buoyancy is anticipated where convection forms, rendering negligible severe hail potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday into Sunday night from Arkansas and Missouri into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260811
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO TN/KY/OH
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday into Sunday night from Arkansas and Missouri into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
MO/AR to TN/KY/OH
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of an upper trough, as it progresses from the High Plains to the North-Central States. This will induce deepening of a surface cyclone from near the Ozarks to the eastern Great Lakes. Attendant cold front will accelerate on Sunday night as it quickly moves east across the OH Valley and south into the Northwest Gulf.
Isolated to scattered elevated convection within the strengthening low-level warm conveyor should persist, yielding a northern limiter to potential severe thunderstorms later in the day through Sunday night. Outside of the likely too cool/stable 00Z NAM, bulk of preferred guidance suggest weak surface-based destabilization may occur as a broad plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints becomes established ahead of the front and deepening cyclone. Richer boundary-layer moisture with at least mid 60s surface dewpoints should largely hold over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South.
Late afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the Mid-MS Valley/Ozarks vicinity. Amid broadening large-scale ascent, upscale growth into a thin but long QLCS seems plausible along the front given the orientation of the deep-layer winds. Despite only minimal to meager surface-based instability on Sunday night, intensifying wind fields throughout the troposphere could support a convective line with/without lightning. This may yield a threat of sporadic strong to severe gusts producing at least isolated damaging winds.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260853 SPC AC 260853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.
The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260853 SPC AC 260853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.
The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260853 SPC AC 260853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.
The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260853 SPC AC 260853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.
The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, January 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260853 SPC AC 260853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.
The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.
..Grams.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, December 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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