Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Summary
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of the Central and Northern Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260026
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of the Central and Northern Valleys.
Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk.
For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.
..Jewell.. 12/26/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251717
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night.
Synopsis
A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West, as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe potential.
Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic
A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.
..Lyons.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night.
Synopsis
Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential appears negligible.
..Lyons.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, December 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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