Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.
20z Update
The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res guidance.
### Northern FL and southern AL/GA
5% wind and hail probabilities were both expanded across the FL Panhandle/northern FL into adjacent portions of southern AL and GA ahead of a persistent strong thunderstorms. This cell has shown signs of period intensification to severe levels, and a downstream 18z JAX sounding sampled adequate buoyancy within a MUCAPE gradient for storm maintenance, as well as very strong (57 knot) effective bulk shear that may support additional periods of intensification through late afternoon (see MCD #671 for additional details).
Southern MS/AL
Minor expansions of the 5% hail/wind contours were made across portions of southern MS and southwest AL. Elevated convection developing across northern LA will likely spread east/southeast during the 09-12 UTC period, and may pose a risk of large hail and perhaps damaging gusts. While clustered storm modes will likely modulate the overall severe threat, sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer wind shear should be in place to support a few stronger cells.
Oklahoma
The early stages of convective initiation are well underway across north-central OK with a more expansive cumulus field noted across northwest OK ahead of a cold front (see MCD # 670 for additional short-term details). Recent high-res solutions (notably recent runs of the HRRR) compare reasonably well these convective trends and to a recent 19 UTC OUN RAOB. This lends reasonably high confidence in the evolution of the severe hail and wind threat across central to north/northeast OK through mid-evening. Although the greatest severe risk will likely materialize along and north of the I-44 corridor over the next several hours, the somewhat marginal thermodynamic environment and widely scattered convective signal in guidance sufficiently limited confidence for higher risk (namely 30% hail) probabilities. However, slight expansions of the 5% and Intensity Level 1 hail contours were made to account for recent observed trends.
..Moore.. 05/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026/
Central Plains
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.
Central Gulf Coast
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may develop across parts of the southern/central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat is also forecast along much of the Gulf Coast, portions of the Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may develop across parts of the southern/central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat is also forecast along much of the Gulf Coast, portions of the Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
Southern/Central Plains
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern states, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Modest/shallow low-level moisture should advance northward from TX/OK into the central High Plains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Initially high-based convection should form across southeast WY/northeast CO Saturday afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward in a weakly unstable but well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated severe gusts should be the main threat with this activity, but some hail could also occur with the stronger cores given cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear.
Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur across the eastern TX Panhandle through the day, with a surface dryline extending southward from this low across west TX. Most guidance suggests moderate to locally strong instability will develop to the east of the dryline across western OK and vicinity through peak heating, with minimal MLCIN present. However, overall large-scale forcing will remain weak/nebulous, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough across the central High Plains through Saturday evening. Still, at least isolated convective initiation appears plausible along/near the dryline and surface triple point. Any convection which forms and can be sustained through the evening would tend to become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds.
There is also some signal for a convective cluster to spread southeastward from KS into OK late Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. If this occurs, then a continued threat for isolated severe/damaging winds and hail may persist through the end of the period. Accordingly, the Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been adjusted based on these latest guidance trends.
Coastal/South Texas into the Southeast
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the lower MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast states along/near a stalled surface front. Given sufficiently strong westerly mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear to support updraft organization, this convection may pose an isolated hail/damaging wind threat as it moves generally east-southeastward through Saturday afternoon into a gradually destabilizing airmass.
Farther west, a southern-stream mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across coastal/south TX through the day. The presence of a rich/moist low-level airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with any cells that can persist/develop. This potential remains somewhat unclear, as better forcing aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough will tend to shift eastward over the western Gulf through the day. Still, at least isolated large hail and damaging winds could occur, which supports expanding the Marginal Risk into parts of south TX.
Great Lakes
A strong mid/upper-level jet embedded within the larger-scale upper troughing centered over eastern Canada will overspread the southern Great Lakes on Saturday. Although low-level moisture will remain limited ahead of a cold front, daytime heating should aid in steepening low-level lapse rates by early Saturday afternoon, with weak MLCAPE forecast to develop. A broken band of thunderstorms should form and pose some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps hail given 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. This convection will likely weaken through the evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent into the upper OH Valley and Appalachians.
Mid-Atlantic
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon across parts of southeast PA into MD/DE/NJ, where a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment should support some updraft organization. Overall instability appears marginal to support supercells, but hail and damaging winds could occur with the strongest cores as they move quickly eastward and off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday afternoon and evening.
Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur along various sea breezes.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, May 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, May 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, May 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080831 SPC AC 080831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to persist across much of the central and eastern U.S. during the period from Monday to Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through the Southeast on Monday and into the Gulf and Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the front each day, with the greatest potential for severe Monday afternoon and evening in parts of southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the coastal Carolinas. Isolated severe wind gusts is expected to be the primary threat.
Further to the north on Tuesday, another cold front is forecast to move southward through the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain somewhat limited, enough instability could develop for an isolated severe threat. The greatest potential would be in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois in conjunction with a mid-level jet moving southeastward through the region. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible. A marginal severe threat could again develop near the associated trough over the central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward toward the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as another shortwave ridge moves into the High Plains on Friday. In the wake of each ridge, model forecasts develop a north-to-south axis of instability in the Great Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this unstable airmass on both Thursday and Friday. At this time, uncertainty is substantial late in the day 4 to 8 period.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, May 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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