Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231612
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected.
TX/LA
A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated.
### WA/OR
Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening.
..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, February 24
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230702
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Synopsis
A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night.
South Florida and the Florida Keys
A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time.
Northwest
A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230749
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday.
Discussion
Mostly zonal flow aloft will be present across the CONUS on Tuesday with a dry airmass in place as a surface low moves off the east coast of Florida amid northerly flow across much of the Southeast into the central and eastern Gulf. Later in the period, some southerly flow will resume across the western Gulf, but moisture will remain very shallow with no instability present. Given this dry environment across much of the CONUS, no thunderstorms are anticipated on Tuesday.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230933 SPC AC 230933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230933 SPC AC 230933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230933 SPC AC 230933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230933 SPC AC 230933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, February 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, March 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, March 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230933 SPC AC 230933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, February 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, February 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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