Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?
* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161242
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening.
Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a prominent and positively tilted upper trough extending from eastern Canada into the Upper Midwest. This upper trough will advance eastward while amplifying over the eastern CONUS through the period, with enhanced west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow expected to overspread much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range with filtered daytime heating. But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped convection which develops along/near the front may produce little lighting, especially with northward extent into southern New England.
Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur this morning with ongoing convection along/near the front across western PA/NY, even though instability remains very limited. Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest that a low-topped convective line will further develop across central into eastern PA and southern NY by 17-21Z. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through early evening. The greatest coverage of damaging winds should focus across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where locally greater instability is forecast.
The potential for line-embedded mesocirculations is less clear. While some low-level shear will be present, the enhanced low-level flow is forecast to gradually veer to west-southwesterly through the afternoon/evening, which may reduce effective SRH somewhat. Still, at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should spread towards the coast before convection weakens this evening due to marine layer influences and nocturnal cooling. Overall, the ongoing forecast aligns reasonably well with recent short-term guidance/observational trends, and therefore only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities with this update.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected tomorrow (Saturday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160524
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected tomorrow (Saturday).
Synopsis
Upper ridging and a surface anticyclone will overspread most of the CONUS as an upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Saturday). A relatively cool, stable airmass accompanying the surface anticyclone will suppress thunderstorm development over most locales. A surface cold front associated with the exiting upper trough will sweep across the FL Peninsula during the day, providing enough lift of a preceding moist airmass to support a couple of thunderstorms. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler mid-level temperatures, will accompany a mid-level impulse over the Lower Colorado River Basin, where enough lift may be present to support a few lightning flashes.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected anywhere across the Contiguous United States on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160649
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected anywhere across the Contiguous United States on Sunday.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will prevail across the central CONUS as a weak 500 mb cutoff low meanders off of the East Coast and broad, low-amplitude upper troughing dominates the Interior West on Sunday. A surface anticyclone will overspread the CONUS east of the MS River while surface troughing occurs across the Great Plains. Despite this surface troughing, medium-range guidance shows moist trajectories across the Gulf oriented away from the U.S. shoreline, suggesting that a stable airmass will remain over the CONUS. Therefore, thunderstorm potential should be hindered over most locales. The one exception may be southern FL into the Keys, where lingering low-level moisture in a post-cold-frontal airmass may support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160752 SPC AC 160752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, October 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game