Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS…GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES…NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.
Central/northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies…Great Basin…and Desert Southwest
An upper ridge will remain anchored over parts of the Southwest/southern Rockies today. A series of midlevel vorticity maxima will move along the periphery of the ridge from central CA into the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern Plains.
Across the central/northern Plains, moderate to locally strong destabilization is forecast along/east of a surface trough that will extend from the western Dakotas into the NE Panhandle. Relatively strong MLCINH may limit coverage of diurnal storm development near this surface trough, but deep-layer shear will support a hail and localized severe-wind threat with any sustained storms through early evening. A greater coverage of elevated convection is expected to develop later this evening into the overnight, as storms spread toward the eastern Dakotas and southwest MN. The pattern generally suggests potential MCS development, though most CAM guidance is relatively subdued regarding the intensity and attendant severe-wind threat associated with the late-night storms. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding development of diurnal storms and/or a robust nocturnal MCS.
Farther west, relatively widespread storm development is expected from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, potentially aided by the midlevel vorticity maxima traversing the region. Buoyancy will generally remain weak, but steep lapse rates and increasing flow in the 700-500 mb layer along the periphery of the ridge will support potential for persistent outflow-driven cells/clusters and strong to localized severe gusts across a broad region.
Carolinas/north GA into the Mid-Atlantic
A relatively broad/weak upper trough will gradually shift eastward today across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. Widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon within a weakly capped and moderately buoyant environment. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and large PW will support localized downburst potential, though weak deep-layer shear should generally limit the organized-severe threat.
Parts of Maine
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front across parts of Maine this afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg) and marginally supportive deep-layer shear could support at least transient storm organization. The environment will not be particularly favorable for severe wind or hail, but guidance suggests some eventual clustering of storms and potential for isolated wind damage and small to near-severe hail across parts of central and eastern ME from the afternoon into the early evening.
..Dean/Wendt.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main threat.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main threat.
Synopsis
The upper ridge that has remained stagnant across the Southwest into the central U.S. will gradually drift toward the MS Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the progression and amplification of a mid-level trough over the Intermountain West. A surface lee trough will gradually intensify east of the Rockies, with some potential for surface low development over the northern High Plains. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper trough will overspread a relatively moist low-level airmass across portions of the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. As such, adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear will be in place to support at least scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
Portions of the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains
A broad belt of 40-50 kt 500 mb flow will overspread the northern Great Basin to ND through Saturday afternoon and evening, yielding elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Furthermore, the approach of the aforementioned upper trough will promote adequate QG ascent for at least scattered thunderstorm development from the northern Great Basin to the Dakotas. A relatively mixed boundary layer beneath the broader region of stronger flow aloft and accompanying speed shear will encourage at least isolated severe gust potential, hence the introduction of broad Marginal Risk probabilities.
Across northern portions of the Great Basin, a relatively focused corridor of severe wind potential exists immediately ahead of the upper trough, where QG ascent will be strongest. NAM and RAP forecast soundings disagree somewhat on thermodynamic profiles across this region. RAP shows the presence of richer low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints over 60 F), amid 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, NAM depicts upper 40s F low to 50s F dewpoints and slightly less steep mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, both guidance members agree on showing over 1000 J/kg peak MLCAPE amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, suggesting the potential for supercells. As such, a Category 2/Slight Risk was introduced.
Across the Dakotas, immediately west of a surface low, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid moist low-level upslope flow along the higher terrain. While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep in this region, these storms will develop amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, with supercell structures possible. Severe wind and hail are currently the main hazards expected with these storms, with a Slight Risk introduced.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Summary
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280721
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will gradually drift eastward from the central CONUS to the OH/TN Valley areas on Sunday, with two mid-level shortwave troughs poised to crest the upper ridge and overspread the Northeast and northern Plains, respectively. A surface low will develop across the northern Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags south-southeastward across the central Plains. Along the warm front and ahead of the cold front, seasonable low-level moisture will be overspread by modestly cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft to support some threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Portions of the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley
One or more rounds of thunderstorms are expected to overspread the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the day and early overnight hours on Sunday. Forecast soundings show 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis, particularly along the warm front, where sizeable curved/elongated hodographs also exist. The current thinking is that a mix of multicells and supercells are possible, with one or more clusters potentially growing upscale into an MCS. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats with multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk of a wind swath should an MCS materialize.
Portions of the central Plains
Convective initiation along the cold front is quite conditional across NE and surrounding areas given appreciable MLCINH expected. Nonetheless, steep lapse rates potentially exceeding 8 C/km amid elongated hodographs suggest supercells structures could develop if MLCINH erodes sufficiently, or if isentropic lift in the early evening at the terminus of a strengthening low-level jet can support elevated convection.
..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 29
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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