Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
Weak thunderstorm activity may begin to develop across parts of western Texas by this afternoon, before increasing within an expanding area of precipitation across parts of the central and southern Great Plains toward lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280500
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Weak thunderstorm activity may begin to develop across parts of western Texas by this afternoon, before increasing within an expanding area of precipitation across parts of the central and southern Great Plains toward lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys tonight.
Discussion
Downstream of amplifying flow, including building mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale digging troughing across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies later today through tonight. There is notable spread still evident within/among the model output concerning this evolution, but models generally indicate that this will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of eastern Colorado into the adjacent central Great Plains by 12Z Saturday.
This is close on the heels of a cool/dry intrusion still ongoing across the central into southwestern Gulf Basin, in the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing approaching the Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most significant short wave perturbation still digging within this regime is forecast to rapidly accelerate into the northwestern Atlantic today through tonight, and trailing surface ridging likely will begin shifting east of the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Models suggest that this will occur in a manner allowing for a strengthening southerly return flow from the Texas South Plains/lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Missouri Valley by late tonight.
This may be accompanied by rapid north-northeastward advection of moisture now present across/east of the Mexican Plateau, and include near-surface dew points increasing through the mid 50s to lower 60s F across Deep South Texas into portions of western North Texas by the end of the period. However, to the north of Deep South Texas, where relatively warm mid-level temperatures probably will inhibit thunderstorm development, the moisture return is generally forecast above a residual cool/stable near-surface layer, which will remain deeper with northward/eastward extent into the central Great Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley.
Still, forecast soundings indicate that this moistening, near the base of a layer of steepening lapse rates aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, will provide support for convective development capable of producing lightning. It appears that this could initiate across the Permian Basin vicinity by this afternoon, if not perhaps earlier, before forcing for ascent supports increasingly widespread convection and embedded weak thunderstorm activity across parts of the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley tonight.
..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening.
Synopsis
The shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward as mid-level westerly flow intensifies from the Plains to the MS Valley and Midwest Saturday/Sunday. A surface low attendant to the trough will move from OK/KS to the southern Great Lakes as a strong cold front moves south from the Red River to the lower MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the front will support scattered thunderstorms across eastern TX, the Sabine Valley and lower MS valley through early morning Sunday.
Southeast TX to western LA
With southerly surface flow expected to develop ahead of the deepening surface cyclone over the Plains Saturday, low-level moisture advection should increase across coastal and southeast TX into LA. A warm front will slowly lift northward, stalling over southwest LA as it encounters a deep and cool air mass farther north. Continued low-level warm air advection (despite ongoing showers and remnant clouds) should allow for gradual destabilization Saturday afternoon. While overall forcing for ascent appears weak as the upper trough departs to the north, scattered thunderstorm development appears probable, both within the low-level warm advection regime and along the approaching cold front from the Northwest. Given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could support a few stronger updrafts late Saturday through Sunday morning. Residual westerly flow aloft may also favor some storm organization with multicell lines or clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable of damaging gusts and hail. This is most likely from the TX coastal Plain to southwestern LA before the cold front moves offshore into the Gulf.
..Lyons.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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