Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 28

Monday, June 29

Tuesday, June 30

Wednesday, July 1

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Sunday, July 5

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281631

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS…CAROLINAS…AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas.

Dakotas/northern Plains

A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South Dakota overnight.

A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Upper Mississippi Valley

A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the remainder of the night.

Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with mostly elevated storms tonight.

Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening

A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset.

West Texas late this afternoon/evening

Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

Synopsis

A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota.

Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota

The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level ridging that will persist through much of the period limits confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the 50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border.

Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota

Though the timing of development differs, there has been an increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given the stronger low-level jet.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.

Upper Midwest

Though the primary shortwave trough will be lifting into Canada, a remnant cold front will be situated across parts of northern Wisconsin into Minnesota. Strong to extreme buoyancy will be present south of this boundary. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will promote 40-45 kt of effective shear within the warm sector. Mid-level ascent will generally be weak. Where convection can initiate on the mesoscale, damaging winds and large hail may occur. There is some potential that an MCS could develop given the substantial buoyancy, but it is not clear where the preferred corridor for that will be at this time.

Northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska

A modest shortwave trough will move into the central Rockies. A surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado. This will draw low-level moisture into parts of the High Plains. Given around 40 kt of effective shear, supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts would be possible. Low-level shear will also be enhanced near the surface low and a tornado or two could also occur.

Northeast

Given the upper-level pattern, strong convection could be occurring in Canada and move southeastward around the upper ridge. Depending on the timing/intensity of this potential activity, severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. Confidence remains low at this time, however.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280846 SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 29: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.