Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Summary
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131605
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
Western/Central Pennsylvania
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating. One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with this update.
Central/Southern Florida Peninsula
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should remain low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130508
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis and Discussion
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the Northeast overnight.
At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula, where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F dewpoints.
FL
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are always possible.
Elsewhere
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA into MN and WI well north of the warm front.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Summary
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130726
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA
### SUMMARY
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.
Discussion
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by 00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing across AR, MO, IL and IN.
At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday morning.
Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial variability exists among models regarding instability and capping, though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors. Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.
Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes. Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a very strong frontal surge out of the west.
The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks as the event nears and predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 16 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 16 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 16 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 16 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 16 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, March 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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