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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, January 17
Sunday, January 18
Monday, January 19
Tuesday, January 20
Wednesday, January 21
Thursday, January 22
Friday, January 23
Saturday, January 24

Outlook for Saturday, January 17

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171601

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

Discussion

Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Sunday, January 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171703

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Synopsis

Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday, and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However, negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm motions should further limit the duration of convection over land.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Monday, January 19

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171905

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

Synopsis

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the country for Monday. An extensive cold/dry continental air mass and building surface high pressure over the central CONUS will promote dry conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Broad-scale upper ridging will persist along the West Coast, maintaining low chances for precipitation. A lightning flash or two appears plausible on the eastern shores of the lower Great Lakes where cold 850-700 mb temperatures may support mixed-phase hydrometeors within deep lake-effect snow bands. However, this potential seems too spatially limited and conditional to warrant broader 10% thunder probabilities at this time.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, January 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 6 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 7 Friday, January 23 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, January 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 6 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 7 Friday, January 23 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, January 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, January 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 6 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 7 Friday, January 23 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, January 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, January 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 6 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 7 Friday, January 23 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, January 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, January 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, January 20 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, January 21 potential too low
Day 6 Thursday, January 22 potential too low
Day 7 Friday, January 23 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, January 24 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, January 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 18
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, January 19
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, January 20
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 21
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 22
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 23
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 24
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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