Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050554
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will be strongest.
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida. Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040844 SPC AC 040844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040844 SPC AC 040844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040844 SPC AC 040844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, April 7 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, April 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040844 SPC AC 040844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, April 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, April 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, April 7
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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