Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190534
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS…INDIANA…KENTUCKY…OHIO
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.
Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley
Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with 50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.
Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH. Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity, the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms. However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.
Central CA Coast
A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such, locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front pushes south.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but generally sub-severe wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA…GEORGIA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered, but generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Friday east of the lower Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A more substantive increase and clustering of thunderstorms appears possible across parts of the northern Gulf Coast states late Friday evening into early Saturday, which may pose at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong, but generally sub-severe wind gusts.
Discussion
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific through this period. This is likely to include a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley.
There remains spread among model output concerning the continuing strength of a short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged from this troughing, after it reaches southwestern portions of the Great Lakes region by the beginning of the period. It is generally forecast to become sheared and weaken as it progresses to the south of a blocking mid-level high centered near southern Hudson Bay, and downstream troughing digging into the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. However, it appears possible that it may maintain considerable strength east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region through the day Friday, while its associated occluding surface cyclone weakens across Michigan.
It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis will be slow/subdued from the lee of the Blue Ridge across and east-northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, before perhaps undergoing more substantive deepening offshore Friday night. The trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall across the Carolinas, while retreating northward near the southern edge of the strong westerlies across the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday, in advance of a short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest.
Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the Gulf is probable along and south of the front. However, warm layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development through much of Friday into Friday evening.
Gulf Coast States
While mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the short wave trough emerging from the Southwest may remain well to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, it appears that strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support potential for increasing thunderstorm development by late Friday evening and continue overnight. There appears a consensus among latest model output that this will focus across parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by 12Z Saturday. While this is likely to become rooted above a cool, stable near-surface layer, forecast soundings indicate that an initially warm/dry capping layer above the moist layer will contribute to convectively unstable thermodynamic profiles, which may become conducive to severe hail, in the presence of strong cloud bearing layer shear. Potential for severe gusts appears low, but as activity strengthens and perhaps organizes overnight, gusty surface winds may accompany activity.
..Kerr.. 02/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, February 19
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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