Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with more sporadic occurrences of hail and damaging winds from the southern High Plains into the Tennessee Valley and in parts of the northern Rockies.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050550

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

### SUMMARY

Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with more sporadic occurrences of hail and damaging winds from the southern High Plains into the Tennessee Valley and in parts of the northern Rockies.

Synopsis

A series of weak mid-level disturbances (some of convective origin) will contribute modest trough amplification from the OH Valley into the TN and lower MS Valleys on Sunday while another disturbance approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the west. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough and associated 50+ kt mid-level jet streak will move through southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta with downstream height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into northern High Plains.

At the surface, a weak front is forecast to become established from an area of low pressure over OH into the DE River Valley. A secondary surface low may materialize over the Delmarva near the intersection of the front and a lee trough extending south-southwest into the Carolina Piedmont. Farther west, a cold front will settle southeast into the northern High Plains.

### Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas

A hot and very moist air mass is expected to exist from the vicinity of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ south along the lee trough into the Carolinas with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000+ J/kg. Convergence near the surface low and attending boundaries may be augmented by weak forcing for ascent ahead of a subtle short-wave trough to yield scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon.

The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt is forecast in the vicinity of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ, where episodic supercell structures are possible with an attendant risk for marginally severe hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, the expectation is for pulse-type and multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments with the hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates enhancing damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening.

Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to decreased vertical shear and forcing for ascent.

Farther west in the upper OH Valley, a remnant MCV may focus an additional cluster of afternoon thunderstorms near the surface low and associated front. Both vertical shear and instability are expected to be weaker than the segment of the front nearer to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Nonetheless, some 00Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for brief cold-pool organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

### Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains

Modest height falls are forecast Sunday afternoon into evening to the east and southeast of the short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis. And while the boundary-layer is forecast to remain relatively dry ahead of the cold front, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in parts of northern ND.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the front in southwest MT with additional storms expected by late afternoon or early evening along the boundary in western into north-central ND. The MT storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. Stronger instability and vertical shear are forecast in ND, leading to the potential for a few supercells capable of large to very large hail.

### Southern Plains into Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley

One or multiple outflow boundaries remnant from overnight convection are expected to focus diurnally enhanced thunderstorms from portions of the TN and lower MS Valleys into the Red River Valley Sunday afternoon and early evening. In addition, the models indicate an MCV originating from a large MCS ongoing as of late evening from southwest MO into southeast OK and northeast TX will move into the lower MS Valley by afternoon, potentially aiding in the thunderstorm development there. The steepest lapse rates are forecast across the southern High Plains with increasing boundary-layer moisture content into the lower MS and TN Valleys, both of which will contribute to a moderately unstable environment by afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the warm sector, which should limit the potential for storm organization. A possible exception is if the outflow boundary stalls or retreats into southern OK in closer proximity to stronger northwest flow aloft. In that scenario, a corridor of higher supercell potential could materialize, requiring higher hail probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk. Aside from that scenario, pulse and multicell storms appear likely with a risk for sporadic large hail and severe wind gusts in the steeper lapse rate environment in the southern Plains with mainly damaging winds expected in the lower MS and TN Valleys.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050443

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.

Discussion

Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary surface cyclogenesis across the southern Hudson Bay vicinity by Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm activity still appears generally low and dependent on sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this time frame. This continues to be reflected in latest model output, including convection allowing and related guidance, which exhibit sizable spread concerning potential convective evolution and locations with higher probabilities for thunderstorm development.

Northern Great Plains

Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some continuing signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development by late Monday afternoon. If this occurs, moderate to large potential instability, in the presence of at least modest shear beneath 30-40 kt 500 mb flow, probably will be conducive to storms capable of producing severe hail and wind, before perhaps tending to be undercut by a southward advancing cold front trailing the developing Canadian cyclone.

Mid Atlantic

The timing and/or location of highest thunderstorm probabilities across the region differs notably between the REFS and HREF calibrated thunderstorm guidance, and deep-layer mean flow and shear will be rather weak. However, destabilization within broad, weak surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge might become sufficient to focus scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce localized damaging surface gusts Monday afternoon into early evening.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Summary

An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.

Discussion

Models suggest that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America during this period, with a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone only slowly migrating east-northeastward across Hudson Bay toward the northern Quebec shores. Upstream, a notable trough is forecast to only slowly pivot inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, a low-amplitude trough within modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies, and flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. A remnant trough or shear axis will likely linger in between, near/west through southwest of the southern Appalachians.

Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest

Latest guidance suggests that potential for stronger convective development may still remain largely influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this time frame. However, there appears a consistent enough developing convective signal among the various model output to lead to some confidence in the evolution of an organized convective system across the mid Missouri Valley vicinity by late Tuesday night.

It appears that stronger pre-frontal daytime heating may focus moderate to strong destabilization in a corridor roughly across south central South Dakota toward southwestern Minnesota by late Tuesday afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, surface dew point increases to around 70F may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+ J/kg.

As remnant warm elevated mixed-layer air is suppressed further southward, the initiation of storms capable of producing severe hail and wind seems probable by early Tuesday evening. It is possible that the most substantive upscale growth, intensification and organization awaits forcing associated with a nocturnal strengthening low-level jet toward late evening. But, as this occurs, the environment appears potentially conducive to the development of a swath of damaging winds as it propagates east-southeastward Tuesday night.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 5

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Monday, July 6

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, July 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, July 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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