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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through tonight. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and isolated large hail appear possible over the northern Rockies/High Plains this afternoon and evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 022000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through tonight. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and isolated large hail appear possible over the northern Rockies/High Plains this afternoon and evening.

20Z Update

The Enhanced Risk in NY was expanded slightly eastward, driven by 45-percent wind probabilities. Here, temperatures are gradually warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s (higher than earlier guidance suggested). This will yield a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy ahead of developing storms this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear oriented favorably to an expected cluster of storms and the destabilizing air mass should support a swath of wind damage (supported by the latest time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensemble guidance). For additional details, see MCD 2201.

Farther west, severe probabilities were trimmed behind a strongly forced, northeastward-moving band of convection in the northern Rockies. For details on the near-term severe threat, see MCD 2200 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644.

..Weinman.. 09/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026/

Lower Michigan into the Mid-Atlantic

An ongoing cluster across south-central PA has a well established cold pool and a history of producing damaging winds across western/central PA. This convection is expected to continue moving quickly southeastward through the afternoon across parts of MD/DC/northern VA and vicinity. There is still some uncertainty on whether this cluster will be able to maintain intensity with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic, as it becomes increasingly removed from the stronger forcing aloft/mid-level flow over the Great Lakes into NY. Still, a differential heating zone remains apparent along/near the Chesapeake Bay per recent visible satellite imagery and surface observations. The cluster should tend to remain on the warm side of this boundary, with steepening low-level lapse rates developing as daytime heating continues to destabilize the downstream airmass. Scattered damaging winds will likely remain a threat with these thunderstorms as they track across the southern Mid-Atlantic before eventually weakening.

In the wake of this late morning/early afternoon activity, it appears likely that robust destabilization will occur across parts of lower MI into western NY. 12Z observed soundings from APX/DTX/BUF showed moderate to very strong MUCAPE and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates with an EML. This favorable airmass will spread eastward through the day in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough and 50-60 kt mid-level jet also advancing eastward over the Great Lakes and ON. Even with some cloud cover present, moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across western NY by late afternoon, to the west of a differential heating zone/front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a cold front from parts of southeast Lower MI to the lower Great Lakes, with 50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting organized updrafts. A mix of supercells and multicells will likely pose a threat for both severe hail and scattered to numerous damaging winds. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present to support a few tornadoes, with some chance for a strong tornado this evening if a supercell mode can be maintained across western NY and vicinity. Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater severe/damaging wind potential late this afternoon/evening across parts of western NY, where an Enhanced Risk has been introduced.

Northern Rockies/High Plains

High-based thunderstorms have already developed over the higher terrain of central ID this morning. Enhanced winds aloft associated with a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave trough and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as this activity spreads northeastward across MT this afternoon and evening. Occasional 75+ mph gusts may occur, even though instability should remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/tonight in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern MT into western ND, with some hail threat.

Eastern Utah into the Central Rockies/High Plains

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon over eastern UT into the higher terrain of northern/western CO and southern WY. This activity will spread northeastward into eastern WY/western NE where a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer should support locally severe gusts.

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Summary

Severe storms, accompanied by predominantly severe wind gusts and hail (including 75+ mph gusts and hailstones greater than two inches), are possible from the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest. At least widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are also possible from the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021718

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH DAKOTA-MINNESOTA RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms, accompanied by predominantly severe wind gusts and hail (including 75+ mph gusts and hailstones greater than two inches), are possible from the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest. At least widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are also possible from the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

Synopsis

A high-latitude omega block will persist through the forecast period, featuring upper lows along the Pacific Northwest coast and over QC, which bracket a mid-level ridge centered along the MS Valley. Several smaller-scale perturbations are expected to move through the broader-scale flow regime from the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, aiding in thunderstorm development in those areas. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop through the Dakotas into MN, while a preceding warm front lifts north through the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is expected to extend southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, where its location may be modified from convective outflow stemming from thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

### Northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) will reside atop a moist boundary layer in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, yielding a strongly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000+ J/kg. Amidst a backdrop of general height rises, the progression of weak disturbances through the building ridge will promote periods of forcing for ascent. The first of these may occur Thursday morning when elevated thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the mid-MO Valley into upper Midwest. Given the presence of the EML and sufficient cloud-bearing shear, isolated occurrences of large hail may accompany the strongest storms as they spread east into the upper Great Lakes.

In the wake of the early-day storms, residual capping associated with the building ridge coupled with the subtle forcing for ascent results in considerable model variability in the location of subsequent, surface-based storm development Thursday afternoon into night. Nonetheless, the degree of instability and up to 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support higher-order storm modes including supercells and bowing structures, both of which are depicted by the suite of various 12Z CAMs. Hail in excess of two inches, severe wind gusts greater than 75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes appear possible with the most intense storms.

The 15% hail and accompanying CIG1 contours have been expanded into the ND-MN Red River Valley and in parts of WI to account for the large hail potential. Otherwise, the forecast will remain largely unchanged due to the spatial uncertainty in surface-based storm development. Once finer-scale details become more clear, an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary, primarily for severe winds associated with a cold-pool-driven MCS.

### Upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coast

Similar to this morning, clusters of thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of damaging wind may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday over portions of the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. A subset of the morning storms may intensify by afternoon over the Delmarva/southern Mid-Atlantic with additional storms forming during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle in the vicinity of the surface front and/or residual outflow boundaries over the upper OH Valley.

Despite weakening mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent, daytime heating combined with dewpoints largely in the low/mid 70s will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along and south of the effective surface front with MLCAPE approaching 2500-3500 J/kg. The frontal zone will coincide with a belt of 40-45 kt west-northwest mid-level flow, yielding sufficient vertical shear for supercells and organized line segments and/or bowing structures. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with any supercells that may evolve.

A slight northward shift in the Marginal and Slight Risk probabilities has been made to account for stronger instability and an associated severe risk evident in various 12z models.

..Mead.. 09/02/2026

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021918

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into night.

Synopsis

A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo further amplification this period with that feature bracketed by troughs over the western CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. As has been the case over the past several days, subtle disturbances embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will serve as foci for thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee cyclone will evolve over the northern High Plains with an associated surface front stretching from the northern Plains through the upper Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast.

### Lower Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic

There is reasonably good agreement across the 12Z parameterized models that scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across portions of the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes region in association with an embedded vorticity maximum. Whether that convection persists into afternoon remains uncertain; however, it does appear that the mid-level disturbance will progress into the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a belt of 35-40 kt west-northwest flow in the mid levels. Forcing for ascent associated with that disturbance will promote renewed thunderstorm development by afternoon along the effective surface front and within a moderately unstable air mass. Sufficient vertical shear will exist to support organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging wind gusts.

This forecast update will include a slight northward expansion of the Slight Risk probabilities based on 12Z guidance.

### Midwest/Corn Belt

In the wake of possible early-day storms described in the previous section, steep mid-level lapse rates within the eastern fringe of an elevated-mixed layer (EML) will coincide with a moist boundary layer to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front. The proximity to the building mid-level ridge and resultant capping across the warm sector lead to considerable uncertainty in the extent and location of surface-based thunderstorm development Friday afternoon into night. While deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker than that expected on Thursday, the degree of instability will conditionally support a large hail and severe wind risk with any surface-based storms that develop.

Marginal Risk probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update due to the limited predictability in convective evolution.

..Mead.. 09/02/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020844 SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging will prevail over much of the central and eastern CONUS into the middle of next week. The upper trough meandering over the Interior West will eventually eject into the northern Plains and pivot around the upper ridge while another upper trough (currently along the East Coast) slowly drifts out to sea. As this occurs, surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the northeastern quadrant of the U.S.

In the extended period, the best chance for some severe storms will be in and around the Carolinas on Day 4/Saturday. A diffuse differential heating zone will continue to drift south while being reinforced from storms on previous days. By Saturday afternoon, heating along this boundary, amid a very moist environment, will promote damaging gust potential, hence the introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities.

There is also some hint at an MCS propagating southward across eastern ND into northern and central MN along a moist and unstable surface warm front on Saturday as well. While ML/AI calibrated guidance consensus is beginning to elevate severe probabilities in this area, upper support for this feature is quite weak at best, limiting confidence for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

Lastly, the ejection of an upper trough into the northern Plains early next week (i.e. next Monday or Tuesday) will support surface lee troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture beneath cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft. At least an isolated severe thunderstorm risk may materialize from this scenario, but details on timing and placement of key features are too nebulous for the confident introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 2

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 45%

Thursday, September 3

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, September 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, September 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, September 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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