Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061231

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska

Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE. Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass, with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible. A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this upscale growth occurs.

Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest storms.

Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas

A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation. Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central NC.

Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern Wyoming

Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well, resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds and isolated hail.

Lower MS Valley

A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Discussion

It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday. As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S., is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does, models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined, quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.

Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest

Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward. ### Mid Atlantic

Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger storms.

There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening, with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a consolidating gust front.

Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana

Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by potential for a few strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Summary

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Discussion

It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories. Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity, within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.

Great Plains/Upper Midwest

Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with daytime heating.

It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity, initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, July 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, July 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Thursday, July 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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