Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 281225
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.
Southern Plains
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies. Large-scale height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will result in marginal instability over TX and the development of scattered thunderstorms later today.
Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX this morning. Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and central TX this evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and limit updraft strength/severe potential. Nevertheless, the strongest storms this evening could produce small hail.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon or evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280655
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon or evening.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains and Middle MS Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge southward across the southern Plains toward the Arklatex. Seasonal moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across much of central and eastern TX to the Sabine River Valley, promoting enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm development. Given the expected presence of a strong southerly low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.
Eastern TX to the Arklatex and Sabine River Valley
Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across eastern TX into the Sabine River Valley, pockets of occasional heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s F. Should this occur, mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, may yield MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. The latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal points for thunderstorm initiation. One is along the approaching cold front in northeast TX into southwestern AR and far northwestern LA by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and support severe gusts. Ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence bands, over the TX coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm initiation. Despite the departing nature of the low-level jet, appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+ kt west-northwesterlies glancing the Arklatex, will support elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 280818
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central and southern Rockies as a broader upper trough overspreads the northeast on Sunday. As a surface low rapidly ejects toward the Northeast Atlantic coastline, surface high pressure will overspread much of the Interior West and most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Static stability with the high pressure should limit thunderstorm development over most areas. The best chance for any thunderstorm development will be along the Gulf Coast ahead of a surface cold front early Sunday. Before the front moves offshore, near 60 F surface dewpoints along the coast will promote marginal buoyancy, which will support thunderstorm development along the front given low-level convergence.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.
A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, November 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 29
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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