Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150527
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.
Pacific Northwest
100+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate inland along the WA/OR coast around 16/00z. Low-amplitude short-wave trough will induce strong height falls near the international border ahead of this feature, coincident with a notable surface front that will surge inland after 21z. While profiles will cool and steepen at midlevels, forecast soundings are not particularly buoyant either side of the trough, and the prospect for deep convection capable of generating lightning appears low. While the thunderstorm potential appears low, weak midlevel convection is possible and a flash or two can not be ruled out. This, however, does not warrant a categorical risk for thunderstorms during the day1 period.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150659
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.
Pacific Northwest
A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms. Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line of convection is expected to develop along the front as it approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface. This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time. Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.
Texas Coastal Plain
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Summary
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150815
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning.
A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential. However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks. This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening. After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150949 SPC AC 150949
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability.
D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150949 SPC AC 150949
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability.
D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150949 SPC AC 150949
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability.
D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150949 SPC AC 150949
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability.
D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150949 SPC AC 150949
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability.
D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast
Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.
D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast
Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop.
..Bentley.. 12/15/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, December 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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