Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, December 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210526
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California.
Coastal OR/northern CA
A shortwave trough will progress northeastward and reach the Pacific Northwest coast midday, then pivot eastward towards the northern Rockies through tonight. A pronounced low-level warm conveyor will overspread the coast early this morning with an attendant rain swath moving onshore by 12Z. Embedded, isolated thunderstorm potential should be confined to northern CA during the morning, along the northern periphery of scant to meager MUCAPE, before ascent wanes.
Along the OR coast, a period of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the mid-level cold core should be coincident with onshore southwesterly low-level flow. Sporadic lightning flashes may accompany scattered low-topped convection from late morning to early afternoon, before mid-level temperatures rapidly warm with further inland progression of the trough.
..Grams/Weinman.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210646
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Discussion
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will remain across the eastern CONUS which will preclude thunderstorm potential for most of the country. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest and northern California coasts, particularly Sunday late afternoon and evening as the next in a series of shortwave troughs approaches the coast. Severe storms are not currently expected given the limited buoyancy.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, December 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210822
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Discussion
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify over the Rockies and High Plains in advance of a more prominent upper trough approaching the California coast Monday night. Modest low-level moisture return will occur across Texas in advance of a southeastward-moving cold front crossing the southern High Plains and parts of Texas. The potential for elevated thunderstorms should increase Monday night particularly across North Texas and south-central/eastern Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex. This will be as forcing for ascent and elevated moisture transport increase regionally. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210922 SPC AC 210922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.
An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210922 SPC AC 210922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.
An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210922 SPC AC 210922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.
An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 27
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210922 SPC AC 210922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.
An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210922 SPC AC 210922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day 4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas. Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.
An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.
..Guyer.. 12/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, December 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Saturday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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