Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 6
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated damaging wind gusts may also occur from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061959
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST…AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated damaging wind gusts may also occur from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
20Z Update
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In the near term, the primary concern will be the potential for a few organized storms in southern MO capable of producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts. See MCD 1843 more details.
..Weinman.. 08/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026/
Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks
Ongoing convection in MO and along the KS/OK border late this morning has been aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a slow-moving surface boundary. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur through the afternoon along/south of this boundary from the southern High Plains eastward to parts of the Ozarks. This region will remain on the southern periphery of large-scale troughing centered over Canada and the northern Plains, with nebulous/weak forcing for ascent evident along the surface front. This leads to low confidence in renewed thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. Based on this and trends in 12Z guidance, have removed the Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds. Still, an isolated hail/wind threat remains apparent along the length of this boundary, as moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support updraft organization with any cells that can form/be sustained. A greater signal for scattered thunderstorm development exists this evening/overnight across parts of KS/MO as a low-level jet gradually strengthens in this time frame. Have expanded severe hail/wind probabilities northward a bit to account for this potential.
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Around 20-35 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will exist over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today. At the surface, a weak trough will be located from the coastal VA north-northeastward into eastern NY. As surface temperatures continue to warm into the 80s with filtered daytime heating, thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians and subsequently move east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface trough. While mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, a rather moist low-level airmass will contribute to moderate instability this afternoon (MLCAPE generally 1000-2500 J/kg). Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates are forecast with southward extent into the western Carolinas where mid-level flow will be comparatively weaker. Some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing occasional damaging winds.
Colorado/Nebraska/South Dakota
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the north-central CONUS through the period. At the surface, an axis of greater low-level moisture will exist from northeast CO/western NE into southern SD along/east of a weak surface trough, where dewpoints will generally be in the 60s. Near this axis, latest NAM/RAP forecasts show a narrow corridor of moderate instability this afternoon, with MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak/nebulous across this region, any cell that can initiate near the instability axis would be capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with some expansion. But, given low confidence in convective initiation, refrained from including greater severe wind/hail probabilities at this time.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe storms may occur from the Mid-Missouri Valley across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast and hail over parts of central Nebraska/South Dakota.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061734
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN…PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC…SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe storms may occur from the Mid-Missouri Valley across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast and hail over parts of central Nebraska/South Dakota.
Mid-Missouri Valley into Wisconsin/Upper Peninsular Michigan
A cold front will move into the Upper Midwest during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front will maintain upper 60s F farther north to low 70s F dewpoints across Iowa/southern Minnesota. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected during the afternoon. The approaching mid-level jet will bring stronger mid-level flow and 30-45 kt of effective shear to the region (stronger shear will generally exist with southwestward extent). Initial activity will likely be cellular with a tendency to become more linear with time. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Given the stronger buoyancy and shear within Iowa, there is greater potential for an MCS to develop with an associated greater risk for wind damage. Variance is relatively high within model guidance as to where this corridor will exist due in part to the subtle forcing. Some guidance suggests a cluster of activity is possible during the morning hours. This could intensify as the airmass destabilizes during the day. Other guidance suggests limited morning activity with storms forming along the front farther east. An increase in wind probabilities is possible as confidence increases.
South Dakota/Nebraska
At least moderate elevated instability is forecast to develop as a low-level jet intensifies within the region late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Several CAMs and global guidance suggest development will occur. Sufficient mid-level flow on the southern flank of the northern Plains trough will allow for organized storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for isolated large hail.
Northern Mid-Atlantic
Though mid-level winds will be slightly weaker than on Thursday, the approach of a modest trough will allow for marginally organized storms within a very moist environment. Afternoon MLCAPE will near 2000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Model consensus continues to support the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms within this weakly capped airmass. Isolated damaging winds will be possible.
Southern Plains into the Ozarks
Given the presence of a stalled boundary/outflow, some potential exists for storms to develop during the afternoon. Confidence on where this boundary will be placed is quite low at this time. Deep-layer shear will also be somewhat weak as well. Given these factors, severe wind probabilities will be withheld, though isolated wind damage could occur.
..Wendt.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and evening from South Dakota/Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061931
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
### SUMMARY
A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and evening from South Dakota/Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.
South Dakota/Nebraska into Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys
Models are in general agreement that convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning near the central South Dakota/Nebraska border. There is some potential for this activity to intensify as destabilization occurs in eastern Nebraska into Iowa during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into these regions. Strong heating to the south of a developing warm front/outflow boundary will lead to a strongly unstable environment. The two main questions for this forecast will be whether the early morning activity can develop enough of a cold pool to persist through the diurnally unfavorable morning time frame, and what the impacts from potential convection in Iowa on Friday will be. The overall setup and environment appear favorable for MCS development. Higher probabilities will likely be needed as confidence in the corridor of greater risk increases.
Mid-Atlantic
Some potential for thunderstorms exists during the afternoon as a very moist and uncapped airmass will remain in place on Saturday. Mid-level flow will be stronger with northern extent with cyclonic flow aloft continuing over the Great Lakes/New England. Though widely scattered to scattered storms are probable, effective shear and mid-level lapse rates will be weak. Furthermore, mesoscale features aiding convective organization are not evident in model guidance. There may be an embedded perturbation within the flow aloft, but models differ on the location/intensity of these features. Uncertainty in storm severity remains high.
..Wendt.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, August 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, August 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.
At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, August 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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