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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Summary

A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe wind and hail possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080556

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS

### SUMMARY

A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe wind and hail possible.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today, supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states. Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.

Central into western Kansas

By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place. High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Summary

An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080557

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support isolated supercell development with potential for large hail. Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential for isolated severe gusts.

Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 10

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080713

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks

An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday, as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 8

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 9

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Friday, April 10

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, April 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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