Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California late tonight. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120549
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California late tonight. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level ridge will move across the Rockies today, as a trough translates eastward toward the West Coast. As large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough moves into northern California late tonight, isolated thunderstorms will become possible near the coast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorm development is not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.
Discussion
Very isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of CA, on Thursday into Thursday night. The southern portion of a broad upper trough will remain offshore of the CA coast through the period. The low-level warm conveyor will be most pronounced Thursday morning before waning somewhat as it gradually shifts southward in CA. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak to poor, but flimsy, generally elevated buoyancy may sporadically develop within this regime. Most CAM guidance suggests occasional bouts of more pronounced low-topped convection should occur, supporting overall thunder probabilities around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 11/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, November 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120720
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
Discussion
A closed upper low will fully cutoff from the westerlies by Friday night, drifting offshore of southern CA. Bands of showers should persist through much of the period in the onshore flow regime across coastal southern CA. While mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, scant elevated buoyancy should be maintained and may foster isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE will become negligible with eastern extent over the Mojave Desert, likely yielding a confined thunder threat through 12Z Saturday.
..Grams.. 11/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110919 SPC AC 110919
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday. The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and progress it into the South-Central States.
A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days. Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15 percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.
Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may develop around mid-week next week.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110919 SPC AC 110919
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday. The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and progress it into the South-Central States.
A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days. Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15 percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.
Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may develop around mid-week next week.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110919 SPC AC 110919
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday. The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and progress it into the South-Central States.
A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days. Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15 percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.
Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may develop around mid-week next week.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 14 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110919 SPC AC 110919
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday. The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and progress it into the South-Central States.
A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days. Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15 percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.
Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may develop around mid-week next week.
..Grams.. 11/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, November 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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