Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains today.
Synopsis
A series of three mid-level troughs will impact portions of the CONUS today. The easternmost trough is an occluding low off the Northeast coast that will bring gusty winds and a threat of isolated thunderstorms to portions of southern New England within the associated surface cyclone’s warm conveyor belt. The westernmost trough will lift northward from portions of the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies into western Canada, resulting in breezy conditions in its wake.
The third trough, and associated moisture plume, will lift northeast across the central CONUS today. As it does, overnight/morning convection will slowly move east across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas before weakening during the late morning. In the wake of this convection, strong diurnal heating should promote a well-mixed boundary layer. Additionally, sufficient low-level convergence along a residual surface trough stretching from northwest Texas into central Kansas should yield at least scattered surface-based thunderstorms. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows. Additionally, cloud-layer shear may be sufficient to support an isolated large hail threat with the strongest thunderstorm cores.
..Marsh/Weinman.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260547
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).
Synopsis
An upper low will meander over the lower Hudson Valley and upper ridging will prevail over the Plains as an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will develop over the Great Basin ahead of the approaching upper trough, with a weak surface low over northwestern TX encouraging low-level moisture advection across the Plains, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected across both regimes. Deterministic guidance consensus shows a general lack of overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear over the Great Basin to the Plains states, suggesting that severe potential should be quite limited, as also shown by the latest ML/AI guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260716
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will gradually morph into an open wave while ejecting into the Atlantic from the Northeast and another upper trough traverses the Southwest on Monday. Weak surface lee troughing and associated low-level moisture return will continue over the Plains, supporting increased thunderstorm chances. Meanwhile, some cooling aloft and deep-layer ascent will encourage thunderstorm development ahead of the aforementioned upper trough over the Interior West. Nonetheless, the lack of a favorable overlap of buoyancy and shear will inhibit organized severe thunderstorm potential, as also suggested by the latest ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 28 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, October 1 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250824 SPC AC 250824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper troughing over the Interior West, containing multiple smaller impulses, will gradually progress eastward to the Plains states through the middle of the week (Days 5-7/Tuesday-Thursday) before another mid-level trough approaches the central U.S. by next weekend. Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts the development of a surface low over the southern Plains around Day 6/Wednesday, accompanied by seasonal low-level moisture return. However, guidance also depicts a poor overlap of vertical wind shear with the moist axis, likely inhibiting greater severe potential, in agreement with calibrated ML/AI guidance consensus. As such, no probabilities were introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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