Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171947
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF IDAHO/UTAH AND A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions of the central High Plains.
20z Update
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as the forecast remains generally on track. See MCD #2304 and the discussion below for additional information.
..Chalmers/Weinman.. 09/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026/
ID/UT
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over northern CA, with a band of strong flow aloft with associated embedded shortwave troughs extending across NV into UT/ID. Strong heating across this area will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from southern ID into northern UT by mid-afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear is present for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. While coverage of storms will likely be limited, one or two severe cells are expected later today - mainly over the eastern Snake River Plain.
CO/KS/NE
The remnants of a weak tropical low are tracking northeastward across the four-corners region this morning. Ample moisture and weak ascent associated with this feature will lead to considerable clouds and scattered thunderstorms today over the mountains of CO and southern WY. This activity will spread eastward into eastern CO and western NE/KS with high-based convection posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The extent of this severe threat will be modulated by daytime heating, which is uncertain at this time due to lingering cloud cover.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms will be possible across parts of Idaho/Utah, Nebraska/Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171710
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms will be possible across parts of Idaho/Utah, Nebraska/Iowa, and the Piedmont of the Carolinas into north Georgia.
Great Basin
A closed midlevel low now over northern CA will move slowly eastward over northern NV/southern ID tomorrow. Ascent immediately east-through-north of the midlevel low, in combination with daytime heating in cloud breaks and low-level moisture on the northwest edge of the monsoonal plume, will support scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon. While MLCAPE will likely remain near or below 1000 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km and deep-layer southerly shear will favor some organized/supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts.
IA/NE area
Low-level warm advection is expected to support clusters of elevated thunderstorms into Friday morning from northeast NE into northern IA/southern MN along and north of a slow-moving baroclinic zone. The potential remains for an MCV to emerge from the overnight storm clusters, though its phasing with the surface warm sector and the formation of additional storms along the surface wind shift Friday afternoon are in question. If storms form along this boundary, there will be a narrow zone where curved low-level hodographs and moderate-strong buoyancy could favor isolated severe storms. Farther southwest, storm development is uncertain given (at best) very weak forcing for ascent. While an isolated downburst could occur with a high-based storm, the overall threat for severe gusts appears too low to maintain a MRGL into KS.
Piedmont
Lingering overnight convection in the vicinity of the Appalachians, around the east/northeast periphery of the persistent midlevel high over the south central U.S., could combine with terrain circulations to provide weak convective outflow and/or differential heating zones to help focus thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Storms are expected to move generally southward into an environment with strong surface heating/steep low-level lapse rates/moderate buoyancy with the potential for precipitation-loaded downbursts with isolated wind damage.
..Thompson.. 09/17/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Summary
Occasional wind damage and/or large hail will be possible across parts of the central High Plains and from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CORN BELT AND OHIO VALLEY…AND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
### SUMMARY
Occasional wind damage and/or large hail will be possible across parts of the central High Plains and from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
The persistent midlevel ridge over the south central CONUS will begin to weaken as a midlevel trough moves from ID/UT to WY/CO. There will be a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow from the central Plains to the Corn Belt/OH Valley, around the northern periphery of the ridge. This belt of somewhat stronger flow will coincide with a slow-moving baroclinic zone with richer low-level moisture into the OH Valley and deeper mixing with hot surface temperatures along/south of the front across KS/OK/TX. Scattered thunderstorms are probable along the front, with the strongest storms expected during the afternoon/evening. Water loaded downdrafts and up to 30 kt midlevel flow suggests the potential for occasional downbursts/wind damage across the Corn Belt/OH Valley, while deeper mixing/inverted-V profiles will favor higher based storms with occasional strong-severe outflow gusts across the Plains. Vertical shear within the warm sector will be on the lower margins for organized severe storms, so this corridor will be maintained as a MRGL risk.
Wind profiles and forcing for ascent will be a bit stronger across the central High Plains, downstream from the midlevel trough approaching the central Rockies. There will be a conditional threat for a couple of supercells, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of buoyancy and how much clouds will inhibit surface heating. Isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon/evening.
..Thompson.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SPC AC 170848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest ECENS and GEFS appear similar in their depiction of the evolving mid/upper flow late this weekend through the middle of next week. A weak mid-level trough and embedded low emerging from the Intermountain West may weaken further while slowly progressing across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, to the south of a transient building mid-level high near the central Canadian/U.S. border into the upper Great Lakes/northwestern Ontario vicinity. Toward the middle to latter part of next week, remnant mid-level troughing may tend to dig into and across the Mid Atlantic, as mid-level ridging builds again across the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley, downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation progressing into the Southwest, and amplifying troughing within the stronger westerlies offshore of the Pacific coast.
In association with this evolving regime, generally weak deep-layer mean wind fields and increasingly limited potential for stronger destabilization are likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, September 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, September 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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