Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
The organized-severe threat appears low for the remainder of tonight, though occasional strong storms will be possible this evening across the central and northern High Plains, and overnight into parts of the mid Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The organized-severe threat appears low for the remainder of tonight, though occasional strong storms will be possible this evening across the central and northern High Plains, and overnight into parts of the mid Missouri Valley.
Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast
A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening from parts of the Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Despite the presence of moderate deep-layer flow/shear, longevity of organized storms within this corridor has been limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and generally modest buoyancy. Sporadic damaging winds have been reported with the strongest of these storms, but a general weakening trend is expected to continue through the evening. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out with any remaining vigorous storms, though longevity of the remaining threat appears too limited to maintain severe probabilities.
Central/northern Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley
Isolated strong storms are ongoing near the NE/WY/SD border region this evening. While deep-layer shear and midlevel lapse rates are favorable, generally modest low-level moisture and buoyancy have limited the severe threat thus far. The time window for any remaining diurnal convection to intensify appears limited, though isolated hail cannot be entirely ruled out into late evening.
Late this evening, elevated convection is expected to increase in coverage across the northern High Plains, and also in a separate band into parts of the mid Missouri Valley. Relatively favorable lapse rates and buoyancy may allow this convection to briefly approach severe limits, but generally modest deep-layer shear and a tendency for storm interference may tend to limit the organized-severe threat. Confidence in more than brief elevated hail potential is too low to include probabilities.
Parts of central MT
Isolated small but relatively organized cells have recently developed to the east and south of Great Falls, in advance of a mid/upper-level low/trough approaching the northern Rockies. While favorable shear will continue to support occasional storm organization, very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe potential through the evening. Small hail and localized strong gusts may occur with the strongest storms.
..Dean.. 09/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into Iowa amid moderate isentropic ascent. In the wake of this morning activity, northward recovery will occur across northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Within this zone, a narrow period of favorable conditions is forecast to develop ahead of front from southeast Nebraska northward. Most guidance shows storms developing within an environment featuring 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear during the afternoon. This would support a supercell storm mode. If this discrete storm mode can be maintained, a EF2+ tornado threat will exist given the nearly purely streamwise vorticity in the lowest 2km from RAP forecast soundings in the region. Limiting factors to this scenario are multiple storms developing along the front and quickly growing upscale and a lack of strong venting flow aloft which may result in disruptive downbursts before a more organized, strong low-level mesocyclone can develop.
Farther southwest, moderate instability and strong heating/lapse rates may support isolated damaging wind gusts. Some guidance shows ~30 knots of effective shear which could support some marginally rotating storms. If this occurs, some isolated large hail may be possible. The 5% hail probability has been extended southwestward to account for this threat.
Elevated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight period across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois within a strong low-level jet and isentropic ascent. However, only modest elevated instability and limited cloud-bearing shear should preclude much severe threat farther east into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
..Bentley.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
A mid-level trough will move into Ontario on Tuesday with the mid-level ridge building in its wake across the Midwest and into the Upper Midwest. Beneath this ridge, a cold front will move slowly southeastward from southern Iowa and northern Kansas at the beginning of the period, to northern Oklahoma to central Missouri by the end of the period. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid 70s south of the front with weak to moderate instability anticipated. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous given the rising heights aloft and weak convergence along the slow-moving, decaying front.
Nonetheless, moderate to potentially strong instability and an uncapped airmass should support some thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts. Some lingering 30 to 40 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain across portions of the warm sector Friday afternoon (particularly across northern Illinois/Indiana) which may aid in storm organization, but warm air aloft and a lack of clear supercell mode should limit the overall hail threat.
..Bentley.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130820 SPC AC 130820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the initially prominent Southeastern mid-level ridge will slowly retrograde west-southwestward and become increasingly suppressed across the lower latitudes late this coming work week into next weekend. However, it appears that the evolving westerlies across the U.S. will remain modest to weak, with little potential for appreciable surface cyclogenesis. While guidance suggests some continuing potential for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development near a lingering frontal zone across the Ohio into lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday, it appears that this will diminish thereafter, with generally negligible risk for organized severe thunderstorm potential into and through next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, September 14
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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