Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on this afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains into central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains, and across parts of western Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300549
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on this afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains into central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains, and across parts of western Texas.
Synopsis
Latest GOES imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level low over southern UT with a modest (25-35 knot) subtropical jet emanating from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Several shortwave vorticity maximum are noted along the MS River Valley and across the Southeast within a broad upper-level deformation zone. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low over southern UT will drift northeast, likely overspreading the central High Plains by late afternoon/early evening. As this occurs, more focused surface pressure falls and lee cyclone development will become apparent across eastern WY/CO and into portions of western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle.
00 UTC RAOBs across the central to southern Rockies sampled very steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rates, which should advect eastward in the wake of ongoing convection through this afternoon given the southwesterly mid-level flow regime. Additionally, late-evening surface observations across the central CONUS reveal an expansive reservoir of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s spanning from central OK into the Southeast. This moisture will advect west/northwest through the morning and afternoon hours in response to the surface pressure falls/cyclogenesis over the central High Plains.
The combination of destabilizing thermal profiles aloft and increasing low-level moisture content will promote a broad swath of moderate to very high buoyancy from the central High Plains southward into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development within this unstable air mass appears likely as ascent increases through the day along the surface trough/sharpening dryline.
Central High Plains
35-45 knot southerly mid-level flow across the central High Plains will yield elongated hodographs with deep-layer shear vectors oriented off the dryline/surface trough. This will result in high-based supercell development initially across northeast CO/western NE into western SD with an attendant threat for large hail and strong outflow winds. With time, upscale growth is anticipated as convection spreads north/northeast across NE and SD with an increasing threat for severe winds.
Central/Southern Plains
Most guidance depicts a sharpening dryline across western/central KS, western OK, and into western TX through the afternoon hours. More focused forcing for ascent across central KS to northern OK ahead of a subtle low-amplitude upper wave will likely favor scattered thunderstorm coverage with more isolated thunderstorms likely with southward extent into western TX. Although ample buoyancy will be in place (MLCAPE values between 3500-4500 J/kg), the primary limiting factor across the central/southern Plains will be modest deep-layer wind shear. Consensus among forecast guidance suggests effective bulk shear values on the order of 25-35 knots are likely, which will promote a combination of supercells and multicells. However, the steep lapse-rate environment coupled with sufficient deep-layer wind shear will support the potential for large hail along with severe wind gusts.
A focused corridor for a tornado threat may emerge across northern OK to central KS where southeasterly low-level flow should support effective SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. However, the tornado threat will likely be highly conditional on achieving a sustained supercell with balanced inflow/outflow. Given the increased convective signal across northern OK/KS, 15% hail/wind probabilities, as well as 2% tornado probabilities, have been introduced.
Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas
A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely within this corridor given MUCAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear should be in place for a few organized cells capable of large hail and perhaps strong/severe downburst winds.
..Moore/Marsh.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.
Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains/Northern Ozarks
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector, moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an axis of low-level moisture and instability.
Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 05/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, June 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, June 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, June 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, June 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, June 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, June 5 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 31
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, June 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, June 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, June 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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