Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261958

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible.

20Z Update

The forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The main changes made to this outlook were to expand severe probabilities farther to the east to account for an uptick in severe potential later tonight, as depicted by some of the latest high-resolution guidance.

Overall, uncertainties remain regarding precisely where the strongest storms are going to occur. OK Mesonet data over the past few hours have depicted some lowering of dewpoints in west-central OK, with a slightly diminished CU field noted. However, several guidance members depict supercellular development in the 02-06Z period over northern OK, likely in part to the strengthening of a low-level jet. Given impressive shear profiles and 8.5-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates expected in this region overnight, it is plausible that the strongest storms for the remainder of the period (to 12Z Monday morning) may occur here, with 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps strong tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for introducing higher tornado probabilities over northern OK is the possible late storm initiation and associated boundary layer stabilization, which may dampen the robustness of tornado production with these storms.

Visible satellite imagery depicts more agitated CU centered over Baylor County, TX, which may hint at locally higher/less conditional severe threat across far north-central TX later this afternoon and evening. However, synoptic forcing is weak, and if storms form, they will likely be sparse, precluding the addition of higher severe probabilities in this region at this time.

..Squitieri.. 04/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/

Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley

Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.

A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547 for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.

A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a focus for convective initiation later today into this evening, although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak diurnal heating.

Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas, but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can form this afternoon persist into the evening.

Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk.

Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be sustained.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Summary

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261731

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA…WESTERN KENTUCKY…AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Discussion

A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Plains and move eastward into northern Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken by the cold front.

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period, with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.

Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys

The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points. Confidence is highest in a better corridor of heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).

A more conditional threat exists further north across northern Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and strong tornadoes will be possible.

As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk. However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late evening.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm development may extend into central/western Texas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261919

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm development may extend into central/western Texas.

Synopsis

A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags slowly south and east.

The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast. It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.

Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region, with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large hail in this region.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, April 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, April 27

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, May 2

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, May 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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