Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261243
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening.
Southwest into South-Central Texas
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon.
Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly 500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger storms capable of wind/hail.
Kentucky
A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity.
Upper Midwest
A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening.
Northern Rockies
A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few damaging gusts will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…SOUTHERN MARYLAND…AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few damaging gusts will be possible.
Synopsis
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common, aiding instability.
Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.
Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.
Mid Atlantic Region
Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity, with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Summary
A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps from western Montana into eastern Washington.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 260725
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps from western Montana into eastern Washington.
Synopsis
An upper low will gradually weaken as it moves very slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a belt of stronger mid to high level winds from UT into ID, WA and OR, where minor height falls are expected late. To the east, weak upper ridging will remain over the Plains, with weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move out of the Mid Atlantic, with weakening northwest flow over the Carolinas.
At the surface, moisture will remain abundant from TX into the Southeast, south of a cold front extending roughly from parts of the mid/upper MS Valley to SC. This boundary will provide a focus for afternoon thunderstorms from NC into SC, but both shear and instability are forecast to remain marginal.
To the west, weak low pressure will develop during the day from eastern WA into MT with strong heating. Forecast instability is a bit uncertain this far out given the pattern, though some models indicate hail potential should sufficient moisture develop into the region. Deep layer shear will be favorable for cellular development, but perhaps a bit south of where the greater thunderstorm probabilities are. Given these uncertainties, will defer to later outlook updates regarding any marginal risk potential in the eastern WA, northern ID, and western MT area.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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