Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, March 31

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 312000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES…AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

20Z Update

The primary changes to the forecast were to adjust severe/thunder probabilities in the Upper Midwest given the progression of the cold front and impacts of earlier convection. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. See MD 308/309 for additional short-term mesoscale details.

..Wendt.. 03/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

IL/IN/MI/OH

Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning over northeast IL and northwest IN. These storms have a history of hail, and are moving into an air mass that is warming/destabilizing. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft will promote and increasing risk of organized storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. See WW #78 and MCD #305 for further details. This activity is expected to persist into the evening, spreading across much of northern OH with a continued severe risk.

Southern NY/Northern PA into New England

Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary extending across northern PA. The air mass north of the boundary is rather cool and stable, but is expected to recover quickly this afternoon with strong southwesterly low-level winds and daytime heating. Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm activity over southeast Ontario will intensify and affect parts of southern NY/northern PA with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado or two is also possible. Storms may spread into southern New England by evening with a continued marginal severe threat.

TX Panhandle/Western OK

Full sunshine will result in strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates along the dryline over the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK this afternoon. A surface cold front will surge southward into this region, with at least isolated thunderstorm development expected near the triple-point by late afternoon. These storms will track eastward into western OK through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for damaging winds and hail with these storms.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 1

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

Southern Plains and Central Plains

A midlevel trough and accompanying 50-60-kt speed max will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains by Wednesday evening. As related height falls overspread the High Plains, a lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. Ample diurnal heating and parcel residence time along the dryline will promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20-00Z time frame – aided by the strengthening large-scale ascent. Steep midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML and lower 60s dewpoints will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector. This, combined with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters/line segments initially.

The risk of large to very large hail (some 2+ inch diameter) should be greatest with these initial semi-discrete storms over the southern/central High Plains. With time, the strengthening DCVA and expanding cold pools will promote upscale growth into a north/south-oriented band of storms with embedded supercell structures – given elongated hodographs and a substantial line-orthogonal component to the deep-layer shear. Large hail will remain possible, though scattered severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will become the main concerns. Additionally, a 40-50+ kt low-level jet will strengthen ahead of the upscale-growing convection into the evening, resulting in expanding clockwise-curved hodographs and additional concerns for a few tornadoes. Higher tornado probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence in where the risk will be maximized spatially. Storms will track eastward across the I-35 corridor into the overnight hours and continue to pose a damaging-wind risk and perhaps embedded tornadoes. However, confidence in the overall severe-risk decreases with eastward extent.

Farther north, additional thunderstorm development is expected near a warm front extending across northeastern KS and vicinity during the evening/overnight hours. While buoyancy will be weaker here, 40-50 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level shear in the warm-advection regime will support organized clusters and potentially a couple supercells. The primary concern with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes.

Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic

Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30 kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to upgrade at this time.

..Weinman.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 311929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

Midwest and Great Lakes region

A negatively tilted shortwave trough and related belt of 50-60-kt midlevel southwesterly flow will move from the central Plains northeastward across the Midwest during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. At the same time, an accompanying 50+ kt low-level jet will overspread the Midwest ahead of a deepening surface low tracking northeastward across IA into WI. Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing ahead of the surface low and along/south of an eastward-extending warm front at the start of the period.

In the wake of the early-day convection, current indications are that lower/middle 60s dewpoints will spread northward beneath steep midlevel lapse rates – yielding sufficient boundary-layer recovery ahead of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the surface low and northward-moving warm front. Despite some uncertainty with the early-day convection, around 50 kt of effective shear and enlarged clockwise-turning hodographs will favor supercells and organized clusters – posing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. As the details become more clear regarding early-day convection and related boundary-layer recovery, higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

Middle MS and Lower OH Valleys

The latest guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will also be possible farther south within a zone of broadly confluent and moist low-level flow. While relatively weaker forcing for ascent limits confidence in severe potential with southward extent, at least subtle midlevel heights falls amid weak/moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear could support a few strong to severe storms capable of wind damage and isolated hail during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 31

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, April 1

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, April 2

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, April 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, April 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, April 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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