Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, January 18
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181614
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Discussion including South Florida
A longwave trough will remain prominent east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough crossing the Southeast, in addition to multiple clipper-type troughs over the Upper Midwest. The potential for isolated thunderstorms will exist across the far southern Florida Peninsula and near the Keys to the south of a cold front, somewhat enhanced by diurnal heating and a moist pre-frontal air mass with lower 70s F surface dewpoints. However, most of the thunderstorm potential should focus offshore, and that will particularly be the case by late today as low-level winds veer and the front progresses offshore.
..Guyer/Moore.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, January 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180529
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
Broad upper troughing and expansive surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Monday. Continental low-level trajectories and cold temperatures will result in a dry and stable boundary layer, precluding thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, January 20
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180712
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains. This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period. Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front, thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180845 SPC AC 180845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180845 SPC AC 180845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, January 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180845 SPC AC 180845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180845 SPC AC 180845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, January 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, January 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, January 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, January 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, January 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, January 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180845 SPC AC 180845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, January 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, January 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, January 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, January 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, January 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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