Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the central U.S. today, as southwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the West. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain in the eastern U.S. as a lee trough develops in the High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today within a moist airmass in the lower Mississippi Valley. Additional storms will be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered storms could also form in parts of Arizona and over the southern Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected today or tonight across the continental U.S.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night, with at least isolated damaging gusts possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310533
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night, with at least isolated damaging gusts possible.
Discussion
A deep upper trough and low will move quickly across the Great Basin, as a southern stream disturbance moves from northern Baja CA across AZ during the day and into NM overnight. At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the East, with southerly surface winds increasing late in the day and into the overnight from the High Plains into the Rockies in advance of the phasing upper system.
Low pressure will deepen from WY into CO overnight, with a cold front moving into western NM late in the day. With the approaching upper trough, pre-frontal winds are likely to remain gusty over NM into the night which will keep the boundary layer a bit warmer/mixed. With 50s F dewpoints, instability should be sufficient for at least isolated severe storms as the cold front moves through. The RRFS soundings shows around 500 MLCAPE at KABQ between 00-02Z preceding the wind shift, with strong shear profiles including 55 kt effective shear and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Also depicted is a high reflectively line with various bowing structures within, possibly developing over west-central NM by 00Z. Locally severe gusts will be the most likely threat from central NM during the evening into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle overnight.
Depending on how organized any convective line becomes along the cold front, some QLCS-type tornado potential could materialize. Instability/time of day will be a limiting factor, but a low-end threat corridor may become more apparent in later updates.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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