Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington State.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220532
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington State.
Discussion
Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period. Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection is not particularly high.
Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the cyclone.
Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops within this warm-advection regime.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220601
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
Discussion
A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm development on Monday.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 220757
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States.
Discussion
The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California, thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, February 24 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, February 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, February 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, February 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, February 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, February 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, February 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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