Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181148
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.
Synopsis
Morning water vapor imagery shows a prominent mid-level ridge over the southwestern states, with fast northwest flow aloft over much of the rest of the CONUS. This pattern will prevent the return of Gulf moisture, and preclude organized thunderstorms over most areas.
The one exception will be over south FL, in vicinity of a stalled boundary. While an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible over land, much of the thunderstorm risk will affect offshore waters. No severe storms are anticipated.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180529
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper high will be centered over Arizona on Thursday, with a large-scale upper ridge from CA into the southern High Plains. East of there, northwest flow aloft will be maintained over the central states, as elongated upper troughing persists along the East Coast.
At the surface, high pressure will be prevalent over much of the CONUS, with centers over the Great Basin and from the Mid Atlantic into the northern Gulf of America. Given this dry and stable pattern, thunderstorms are not expected.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Summary
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180529
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity on Friday.
Synopsis and Discussion
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest on Friday, with strong northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude upper wave will intensify into northern MN and toward the upper Great Lakes late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low also traversing the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from southwest Ontario into IL and MO by 00Z, and southerly winds ahead of it will bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints northward across TN/KY/IN/OH during the afternoon.
Despite the low-level moistening, instability will likely be minimal. However, weak elevated instability may develop within the warm advection zone roughly from OH into PA, with a low chance of isolated thunder.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.
For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.
..Jewell.. 03/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, March 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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