Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today, but some gusty winds could accompany thunderstorms from parts of Kansas to the eastern half of Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010445
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today, but some gusty winds could accompany thunderstorms from parts of Kansas to the eastern half of Texas.
KS to TX
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period this morning across parts of KS into central/eastern OK and north/central TX. This activity will persist eastward through the day, supported by low-level warm advection ahead of a surface low and cold front. Forecast guidance has trended weaker with any signal for severe potential. Ongoing convection and cloud cover downstream across the warm sector will limit heating. Furthermore, lapse rates will remain poor. Large-scale ascent will increasingly lift northeast toward the Midwest in tandem with a weakening midlevel trough. As this occurs, midlevel flow will weaken through afternoon over the central/southern Plains. Stronger instability is expected with southward extent toward South TX. However, vertical shear will be very weak and lapse rates poor, precluding organized updrafts.
While occasional gusty winds could accompany thunderstorm activity today, overall severe potential appears low.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010548
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
DISCUSSION
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the northern U.S. on Friday, as multiple shortwave troughs move east-southeastward through the flow. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front over the Gulf Coast region will be in the 70s F. This moist airmass will become weakly unstable by afternoon over most areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible within zones of focused low-level convergence. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, which will limit any severe potential.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 010725
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, zonal westerly flow will develop on Saturday from the northern Plains into the Northeast. In the southern U.S., mid-flow aloft will remain west-southwesterly. At the surface, a slow-moving front will remain located across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. To the south of the front, weak instability is expected by afternoon over much of the Southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in areas where low-level convergence becomes focused. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak across this moist airmass, limiting any severe potential.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 6 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 8 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
DISCUSSION
Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.
Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.
By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
..Broyles.. 10/01/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, October 2
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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