Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging winds should occur across parts of the Southeast this afternoon/early evening. Scattered large hail is forecast across portions of Montana and North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the northern Great Basin, northern/central Plains, and Missouri Valley to the Ozarks.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…MONTANA…AND NORTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging winds should occur across parts of the Southeast this afternoon/early evening. Scattered large hail is forecast across portions of Montana and North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the northern Great Basin, northern/central Plains, and Missouri Valley to the Ozarks.
Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley
Recent visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across GA/SC late this morning, with surface temperatures already in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s. A weak front is draped from northwest to southeast from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast, with generally low to mid 70s surface dewpoints present to its south. Continued diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support the development of moderate to strong instability (greater with southward/westward extent into GA/AL and north FL). Compared to the past couple of days, this region will be displaced from the stronger mid-level west-northwesterly flow present across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Corresponding deep-layer shear is expected to remain rather modest (less than 25 kt), with only loosely organized updrafts forecast. Even with these kinematic limitations, steepening low-level lapse rates through the afternoon may still promote isolated to scattered damaging winds with clusters that develop and spread south-southeastward through the early evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the more robust cells that can develop initially. The damaging wind threat should be more isolated with westward extent into the lower MS Valley compared to GA and the Carolinas, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with some expansion.
Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains
A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia will pivot towards the northern Rockies through the period, with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in MT. At the surface, mostly cloudy conditions are present over much of western/central MT this morning. Even so, recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this region show supercell profiles later this afternoon and evening as mid/upper-level winds foster strong deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for multiple supercells to develop initially over the higher terrain and spread quickly northeastward. While there is still some uncertainty regarding boundary-layer destabilization, sufficient MUCAPE is forecast to support supercell maintenance into the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Large hail should be the main threat with this activity (with some 2+ inches possible given the very favorable deep-layer shear), but isolated severe gusts may also occur. The Slight Risk has been adjusted/expanded a little eastward in MT based on latest short-term guidance trends. High-based thunderstorms may also pose an isolated threat for severe gusts across parts of the northern Great Basin this afternoon.
Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Missouri Valley and Ozarks
Ongoing and likely elevated supercells with a threat for large hail across parts of western ND are being aided by a subtle mid-level shortwave trough cresting the upper ridge that is anchored over the central CONUS. Favorable lapse rates aloft and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow is likely supporting updraft organization/intensity with this ongoing activity. The airmass downstream across central/eastern ND should gradually destabilize through the afternoon, with a moist low-level airmass present to the east of a weak surface low over eastern MT/southwest ND/northwest SD. It remains unclear whether these ongoing supercells will be maintained farther east across ND, but given the favorable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear present, have opted to add a targeted Slight Risk for the large hail potential.
Additional convection is occurring farther south in SD, southwest MN/northwest IA, and northeast NE in association with a mid-level vorticity maximum evident on water vapor satellite imagery moving eastward across SD/NE. There is a narrow corridor of greater instability present across this region southward to the Ozarks, generally along/near a weak surface front. Isolated hail may occur with the stronger cores in the short term, but it remains unclear if convection will be able to form into a southward-moving cluster across eastern NE/western IA later this afternoon and evening. If this does occur, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist. Have deferred a possible upgrade to Slight Risk given the uncertainty with how ongoing convection will evolve/impact the developing warm sector, and due to the presence of the large-scale mid/upper-level ridge and generally modest flow aloft. A separate area of high-based thunderstorms that should develop this afternoon along/east of a surface lee trough across the central High Plains could produce occasional hail and severe gusts, even as deep-layer shear remains modest.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061716
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Synopsis
A mid-level shortwave trough will take on increasingly negative tilt on Monday as it lifts north-northeast along the northwest periphery of a central CONUS ridge. At the same time, a subtle, low-amplitude short-wave trough currently over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Southern California will quickly move northeast ahead of the main wave.
At the surface, an anticyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will maintain south-southeasterly flow across the Plains, sustaining mid-to-upper-60Fs dewpoints across the Missouri Valley into the Dakotas and western Minnesota. A weak low across eastern Montana will eventually redevelop northward into the Canadian Prairies overnight. As this happens, a cold front will move east across the Northern Plains.
### Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest
The lead short-wave trough will be approaching the north-central US at the start of the forecast period (Monday morning). As the associated mid-level jet approaches, the low-level jet will increase and spread northward across the Plains. On the nose of this jet, elevated convection is likely to be ongoing in response to the warm-air advection. Latest model guidance maintains the low-level jet through the day and subsequently the morning convection is likely to persist through the day as it moves northeast toward western Minnesota. Although widespread cloud cover and moist mid-level profiles will limit instability, the degree of the cloud-layer shear will support at least some potential for hail with these elevated storms.
To the southwest of the morning convection, clearing clouds will give way to robust heating allowing surface temperatures to climb into the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs, with even hotter surface temperatures across western Nebraska. This will allow strong instability to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold front/dry line.
Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon along the surface front/dryline. However, low-level convergence along this boundary will be somewhat weak, with southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of it. At the same time, large-scale subsidence will likely be occurring in the wake of the morning convection. This should limit storm coverage across western South Dakota and western Nebraska. Northwest North Dakota and eastern Montana will be closer to the main wave as its associated better large-scale ascent. Thus, storm coverage may be slightly higher here during the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.
Overnight, the low-level jet increases in response to the main wave approaching the area. This should result in additional elevated thunderstorm development from northeast Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas. This activity should continue east across Minnesota through the overnight. Overall instability should be on the low side given the convection from the lead shortwave, but strong cloud-layer shear could support a hail and wind threat with the strongest elevated convection.
..Marsh.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060621
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into the Upper Midwest.
Central Plains to Upper Midwest
An upper trough will move from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure over Manitoba will continue east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front sweeping east across the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate destabilization is forecast. Deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface boundary, but sufficient shear will be present for some storm organization. The north and east extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain given concern over inhibition/timing and modest instability. However, given the strength of deep-layer southwesterly flow, some severe risk should extend along the length of the surface front from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary concern with this activity from late afternoon into the nighttime hours.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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