Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301613
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.
IA to Lower MI
Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today, with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA. These storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote strong updrafts with a few supercells possible. Large hail appears to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.
Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of lower MI. Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds overnight.
TX Panhandle
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this evening. Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period. Forecast soundings suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of updrafts that can survive. However, any storm that can persist will pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.
..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and severe hail are the main concerns. Isolated severe storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and severe hail are the main concerns. Isolated severe storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains.
Midwest and Great Lakes Region
Embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a low-amplitude midlevel wave and accompanying 80-90-kt speed max will advance eastward from the northern Plains/Manitoba across Ontario and Quebec through the period. In the low-levels, an east/west-oriented quasi-stationary warm front will extend from New England westward to a weak low over lower MI, with a cold front trailing west-southwestward from the low into the central Plains. In response to the migratory wave, the surface low will move eastward along the frontal zone during the day, before the trailing cold front overspreads the region during the evening/overnight hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the frontal zone on Tuesday morning, and it is unclear if/when this early-day activity will diminish, given persistent low-level warm advection amid deep moisture. Nevertheless, current expectations are that these storms and/or additional storms will intensify while spreading/developing east-southeastward across the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast during the afternoon. Here, upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates/EML will contribute to at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy along/south of the frontal zone. This buoyancy, coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and the potential for a few semi-discrete supercells initially – capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and some large hail. Given clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, though this remains more conditional. With time, upscale growth into several lines/clusters will promote a continued risk of damaging winds and some embedded tornado risk as storms spread east-southeastward into the evening/overnight hours. Depending on boundary-layer recovery, a greater severe risk may materialize from parts of lower MI into far southwest NY and northwest PA.
Southern Plains
Strong diurnal heating amid steep deep-layer lapse rates along a north/south-oriented dryline should promote isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the evening. Antecedent dry air and weak forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on storm coverage. However, any storms that do form will be capable of producing isolated large hail and locally severe gusts – given moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 20-30 kt of effective shear.
..Weinman.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely pose a large hail and severe wind threat.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301110
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA
SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely pose a large hail and severe wind threat.
Synopsis
A cold front is forecast to push southward into the OH Valley and southern to central Plains late Tuesday as a surface low races across the Great Lakes region. This boundary is forecast stall across OK north and eastward into the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday. Aloft, an upper-level shortwave trough will approach the southern/central Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday, and will support the steady strengthening of a lee trough/surface low across southeast CO into southern KS. Northward advancement of the stalled boundary as a warm front is anticipated through the day as the surface low deepens with a sharpening dryline becoming established across western OK southward into TX. Scattered thunderstorm development appears probable along both the dryline and warm front by late afternoon and early evening. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the stationary boundary across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
.Southern/Central Plains
Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will be in place across northern TX into OK and southern KS by early Wednesday with steep lapse rates aloft as increasingly southwesterly flow advects an EML eastward over the next 72 hours. Despite initial capping, ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave, coupled with daytime heating, will likely erode inhibition and support thunderstorm development by late afternoon across northwest TX and OK along the dryline. Initially discrete cells may organize into supercells given forecasted deep-layer shear values of 30-35 knots; however, the general consensus among medium-range guidance is that relatively quick upscale growth will occur by the evening hours as mid/upper-level flow increasingly orients along the dryline and broad-scale ascent strengthens with the ejection of the upper wave. As upscale growth occurs, damaging/severe winds should become the predominant threat. While most guidance show this general scenario, spread persists regarding the strength of the mid-level flow and timing of the upper wave, which both may influence the overall intensity of convection and the subsequent severe risk.
Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic
Nebulous broad-scale ascent along the stalled boundary will likely result in primarily isolated to widely scattered convection Wednesday afternoon across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However, westerly 25-30 knot mid-level flow along the boundary coupled with 25-30 F dewpoint depressions may support the development of a few convective clusters that could pose an isolated damaging wind risk. Confidence in this scenario is too limited at this time for risk probabilities, but a focused corridor of isolated severe risk may emerge.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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