Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along portions of the TX/LA Gulf coasts tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180021
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along portions of the TX/LA Gulf coasts tonight.
01z Update
Weak, southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing off the south TX coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms linger near the center of a weak midlevel circulation around the Corpus Christi region; however, the most concentrated deep convection is now focused offshore and should continue to be shunted east ahead of the short wave.
Isolated thunderstorms may eventually develop ahead of this feature downstream across southeast LA later tonight, but negligible buoyancy currently exists on the 00z sounding from LIX. By the end of the period, adequate destabilization should materialize across this region such that lightning is possible with deep convection, primarily after 08-09z.
..Darrow.. 12/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Summary
Severe potential will be limited on Thursday, but isolated strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe potential will be limited on Thursday, but isolated strong wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Synopsis
A strong upper trough will move across Midwest on Thursday with low pressure moving across the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend south from this low with wind shift moving across the OH and TN Valleys during the day and into the evening. Minimal destabilization is forecast ahead of the front as clouds and early day precipitation hamper heating. Mostly elevated instability is forecast, though shear profiles will be strong. Despite a marginal/cool boundary layer across the warm sector, deeper ascent along the cold front could support shallow moist convection capable of augmenting gusts with the frontal passage.
Elsewhere, moisture and instability will increase overnight well off the NC Coast, but supercells developing over the water may eventually skirt the Outer Banks of NC toward the end of the period. At this time it appears the instability gradient will remain offshore.
..Jewell.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Discussion
A deep upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast, with a strong cold front moving across New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day. Widespread precipitation and clouds are likely within the pre-frontal warm advection regime, and this will limit heating and destabilization. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible within the strongly forced shallow convective line and/or with elevated pre-frontal convective elements.
..Jewell.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170957 SPC AC 170957
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Southerly low-level flow will return to the southern Plains on D4/Saturday. This will bring 60sF dewpoints to east Texas and much of Louisiana with weak destabilization anticipated. A few storms may be possible across Louisiana on Saturday night, but shear will be weak. Minimal vertical shear combined with limited forcing and only weak instability will preclude any severe weather threat.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible from D5/Sunday through the first half of next week from East Texas and Louisiana into the Ozarks and into the Midwest as slight enhancements of the low-level jet promote isentropic ascent. Through this period, low to mid 60s dewpoints will progressively advance farther inland. However, instability should remain weak as mid-level heights build and mid-level temperatures warm. Therefore, despite the inland moisture early next week, severe weather potential remains low due to weak instability, weak forcing, and building heights aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170957 SPC AC 170957
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Southerly low-level flow will return to the southern Plains on D4/Saturday. This will bring 60sF dewpoints to east Texas and much of Louisiana with weak destabilization anticipated. A few storms may be possible across Louisiana on Saturday night, but shear will be weak. Minimal vertical shear combined with limited forcing and only weak instability will preclude any severe weather threat.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible from D5/Sunday through the first half of next week from East Texas and Louisiana into the Ozarks and into the Midwest as slight enhancements of the low-level jet promote isentropic ascent. Through this period, low to mid 60s dewpoints will progressively advance farther inland. However, instability should remain weak as mid-level heights build and mid-level temperatures warm. Therefore, despite the inland moisture early next week, severe weather potential remains low due to weak instability, weak forcing, and building heights aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170957 SPC AC 170957
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Southerly low-level flow will return to the southern Plains on D4/Saturday. This will bring 60sF dewpoints to east Texas and much of Louisiana with weak destabilization anticipated. A few storms may be possible across Louisiana on Saturday night, but shear will be weak. Minimal vertical shear combined with limited forcing and only weak instability will preclude any severe weather threat.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible from D5/Sunday through the first half of next week from East Texas and Louisiana into the Ozarks and into the Midwest as slight enhancements of the low-level jet promote isentropic ascent. Through this period, low to mid 60s dewpoints will progressively advance farther inland. However, instability should remain weak as mid-level heights build and mid-level temperatures warm. Therefore, despite the inland moisture early next week, severe weather potential remains low due to weak instability, weak forcing, and building heights aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170957 SPC AC 170957
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Southerly low-level flow will return to the southern Plains on D4/Saturday. This will bring 60sF dewpoints to east Texas and much of Louisiana with weak destabilization anticipated. A few storms may be possible across Louisiana on Saturday night, but shear will be weak. Minimal vertical shear combined with limited forcing and only weak instability will preclude any severe weather threat.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible from D5/Sunday through the first half of next week from East Texas and Louisiana into the Ozarks and into the Midwest as slight enhancements of the low-level jet promote isentropic ascent. Through this period, low to mid 60s dewpoints will progressively advance farther inland. However, instability should remain weak as mid-level heights build and mid-level temperatures warm. Therefore, despite the inland moisture early next week, severe weather potential remains low due to weak instability, weak forcing, and building heights aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, December 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, December 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170957 SPC AC 170957
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
Southerly low-level flow will return to the southern Plains on D4/Saturday. This will bring 60sF dewpoints to east Texas and much of Louisiana with weak destabilization anticipated. A few storms may be possible across Louisiana on Saturday night, but shear will be weak. Minimal vertical shear combined with limited forcing and only weak instability will preclude any severe weather threat.
Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible from D5/Sunday through the first half of next week from East Texas and Louisiana into the Ozarks and into the Midwest as slight enhancements of the low-level jet promote isentropic ascent. Through this period, low to mid 60s dewpoints will progressively advance farther inland. However, instability should remain weak as mid-level heights build and mid-level temperatures warm. Therefore, despite the inland moisture early next week, severe weather potential remains low due to weak instability, weak forcing, and building heights aloft.
..Bentley.. 12/17/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, December 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, December 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game