Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.
Central/Southern Plains
A prominent mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over NM with a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge. A lead vorticity max associated with morning showers/thunderstorms over western KS will continue slowly east-southeastward while an upstream disturbance over central CO moves into the central High Plains by late afternoon. In the low levels, a cold front extending southwestward from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will undergo frontolysis across the central High Plains. Farther south, a stationary boundary sagging southward to near I-40 in the TX Panhandle will extend east-northeast into north-central OK. North of the TX-OK boundary, a moisture plume with slightly richer low-level moisture analyzed this morning protrudes westward from north-central OK into the High Plains.
Weak ascent associated with the disturbance moving into the High Plains later this afternoon combined with very strong heating will favor isolated to widely scattered initial storm development over the High Plains, particularly near the Raton Mesa where upslope flow is expected. Models generally show moderate buoyancy developing by mid afternoon with the stronger mid to high-level flow across western NE and decreasing with south extent. Supercells will be favored initially over parts of western NE with an attendant hail risk and with some clustering possible during the evening (severe-wind hazard). Farther south, have upgraded to 30-percent wind probabilities due primarily to increased confidence in a focused severe-wind threat forecast across the TX Panhandle late this afternoon through the evening. There is seemingly large model agreement/notable consistency in 00z and 12z AI and CAM ensembles, and time-lagged CAM explicit wind guidance and depictions of a linear mode within a very well mixed boundary layer which will be favorable for severe gusts (60-85 mph).
Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan
A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern MN and Lake Superior through the period. An adequately moist and destabilizing airmass will develop immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Models show a narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late afternoon. Some supercells will be possible initially, aside from more prevalent multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards before storms gradually weaken during the evening.
Southeast
While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon, isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded downdrafts and perhaps localized wind damage via 50-60 mph gusts. See MCD #2125 for short-term details regarding a potential isolated wind damage threat developing early this afternoon.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250556
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions.
Central High Plains
Upslope flow across the central High Plains will lead to moderate to strong instability across much of eastern Colorado by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and orographic ascent will result in scattered storm development by late afternoon. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft should result in 30 to 35 knots of effective shear, sufficient for some supercell development. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with this storm activity. The Slight Risk area is focused where the best combination of shear and instability is expected. Farther north across Wyoming flow should be stronger, but most guidance shows weaker instability. Moderate to strong instability should extend into eastern New Mexico. However, mid-level flow will be weaker and therefore, storm organization is less certain.
Great Lakes
A surface low will traverse northern Ontario on Wednesday with a cold front extending southward into the western Great Lakes. Mid-60s dewpoints are forecast to advect northward ahead of this cold front which will lead to moderate to potentially strong instability. Moderate mid-level northwesterly flow normal to the front should provide sufficient shear and storm motion for a supercellular storm mode. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, however, some tornado threat may also exist. Low-level hodographs are small, but do show modest directional shear. This low-level shear combined with a supercell storm mode may result in a tornado or two.
Lower MS Valley
Several MCVs from Day 1/Tuesday convection may exist at 12Z Wednesday across portions of the central Plains. As these features move southeast toward the moist and unstable airmass across the Ozarks and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorm development is likely. Relatively weak deep-layer flow may keep storm mode relatively unorganized. However, the moist airmass and moderate to strong instability, combined with one or more MCVs as a forcing mechanism should combine for some damaging wind threat from water-loaded downdrafts Wednesday afternoon/evening.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250734
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.
Northeast
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a Slight Risk at this time.
Central High Plains
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+ inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities at this time.
Lower MS Valley
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2 convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.
Day4/Friday
As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.
Day5/Saturday
Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.
Day6/Sunday
The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, August 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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