Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period.
← back to overviewSPC AC 290543
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period.
Plains
Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited, and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise. Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the day2 period.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks.
← back to overviewSPC AC 290553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks.
Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
← back to overviewSPC AC 290707
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley
An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day. Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops. In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290851 SPC AC 290851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats.
The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290851 SPC AC 290851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats.
The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290851 SPC AC 290851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats.
The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290851 SPC AC 290851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats.
The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290851 SPC AC 290851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
DISCUSSION
Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats.
The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.
Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8
On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated.
..Broyles.. 10/29/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.