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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Summary

Severe storms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121954

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES…CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

20z Update Great Lakes

Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold core of an upper-level trough beginning to impinging on modest low-level moisture south of a stalled front near the MI/WI border. While moisture and resulting buoyancy remain very limited (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE), steep mid-level lapse rates and continued heating should support enough destabilization for a few storms this afternoon and evening. Hail is possible, especially with any storms elevated above the surface given fairly strong mid-level flow. Have adjusted 5% hail probabilities northward toward the warm front across the MI/WI border.

FL

Numerous storms are ongoing this afternoon south of an east-west oriented baroclinic zone across the FL Peninsula. To the south, the environment remains moderately unstable and sheared, which has supported a few organized clusters and supercells so far. Hail, damaging winds, and a brief tornado remain possible with the strongest storms as the boundary is forecast to sag southward through tonight. Have removed severe probabilities and trimmed thunder behind the boundary where the air mass has stabilized.

Otherwise, the prior outlooks remains valid with only minor adjustments. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026/

Florida

A very moist airmass is in place across the FL Peninsula today, with surface observations showing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is at or above 1500 J/kg for much of the peninsula already. A shortwave trough is currently moving into the central Gulf Coast vicinity, with continued eastward/southeastward progress expected throughout the day. The prevailing buoyancy coupled with ascent attendant to this wave will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Low-level flow is generally weak, but the shift from low-level easterly winds to moderate southwesterly aloft is supporting moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Some increased shear is possible in the vicinity of the east-coast sea-breeze, with the strongest storms anticipated near this boundary as a result. The overall expectation is for some organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail, particularly across the east-central portions of the peninsula.

Upper Midwest through the Mid MO Valley into southeast KS/northeast OK

Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Great Lakes. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the northern MN/WI border vicinity, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward through northwest IA, southeast/south-central NE, and far northwest KS. A modest pre-frontal trough is in place just ahead of this cold front. The shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward, while the cold front progresses eastward/southeastward. Northern portion of this front (closer to the surface low and parent shortwave) will make notably more eastward/southeastward progress than the southern/western portion, which will move more gradually southeastward.

Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the front, but with mid 50s dewpoints currently in central OK, the extent and quality of this moisture will likely be somewhat limited. Filtered heating and mixing could also reduce dewpoints. Even so, dewpoints will likely still reach at least the mid 40s across southern WI, gradually increasing into the mid 50s across southeast KS/southwest MO/northeast OK. This is expected to be enough moisture to support a narrow corridor of modest buoyancy. Strongest ascent will be near the surface low and shortwave trough across the Upper/Mid MS Valley, supporting higher storm coverage than areas farther southwest. A few high-based storms capable of wind damage and isolated hail are possible.

Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected, particularly from west-central IL into southeast KS. Thunderstorm chances across much of this area appear low enough to remove severe probabilities. The only exception is over the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity. Here, greater low to mid-level moisture could still support a storm or two. Shear is strong enough to support hail with any storms that mature.

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121733

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard.

Northern Rockies and High Plains into northern Utah

A potent mid-level shortwave trough over western OR/WA will move east across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains as a downstream ridge shifts east into the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning. An attendant 80-90 kt 500 mb speed max will overspread ID/MT by peak heating as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern parts of the Great Basin. Forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Increasing flow through the cloud-bearing layer will result in relatively swift storm motions within pre-conditioned, dry-adiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. Isolated to scattered storms developing over the higher terrain will move into the lower elevations and increase in coverage as a couple of linear clusters evolve towards early evening across central MT, and to a lesser degree, across eastern ID. The primary risk will be severe gusts (60-80 mph) accompanying the stronger cores and outflow. Farther south, very deeply mixed boundary layers evident in forecast soundings across northern UT into southern ID will favor severe gusts with the stronger cores.

Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians

An upper-level trough initially over the central Great Lakes will move east-southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states vicinity during the period. Strong cyclonically curved, 500-mb flow (50+ kt) will move through the base of the trough. A surface low will move eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen by midday/early afternoon, lending the potential for several stronger thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk for wind damage and localized severe gusts.

TX Panhandle

Despite a 500-mb ridge overhead, very strong boundary layer heating may sufficiently erode convective inhibition and yield a couple of thunderstorms developing near the Caprock (22-00 UTC). Very steep lapse rates will support an isolated risk for hail/wind if sustained storms develop. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will likely be the primary severe hazards.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will likely be the primary severe hazards.

Central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley

Weak elevated showers/storms will likely be ongoing over eastern KS Thursday morning owing to warm advection as low-level southerly flow strengthens. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the CO Front Range to the mid MS Valley during the period invoking poleward moisture transport via southerly flow. Model guidance suggests surface dewpoints to rise into the 60s deg F in an narrow tongue along and east of I-35 in OK and I-135 in central KS. An elevated mixed layer featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) will contribute towards maintaining a cap through mid afternoon as a moderately to locally very unstable airmass develops east of a dryline. Strong heating and large-scale ascent associated with the eastward-migrating impulse will act to erode convective inhibition. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible during the 21-00 UTC period. Forecast soundings favor supercells with mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Severe gusts are also possible and would likely focus if small clustering can occur during the early evening as this activity moves east towards the lower MO Valley. A south-southwesterly LLJ is forecast to slightly veer and favor strengthening warm-air advection Thursday night into the lower MO Valley, perhaps facilitating a lingering risk for wind/hail and/or additional elevated thunderstorms posing an overnight hail threat.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

Over the weekend, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually become southwesterly across the central U.S. In response, low-level moisture advection will occur in the Great Plains. By Friday afternoon, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from north Texas into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri. Isolated severe storms will be possible within this airmass Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a dryline is forecast to develop from the far eastern Texas Panhandle northward into west-central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough approaches in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the dryline from western Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat could develop.

A surge of deeper low-level moisture is expected across the southern and central Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the western U.S. In response, a north-to-south corridor of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from western Oklahoma north and northeastward into central and eastern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. MCS development may occur in the evening as a complex moves northeastward from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to form ahead of the front in the afternoon. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will be strong enough for severe storms across a broad area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the location of the front Monday afternoon. A severe threat area may be needed in later Outlooks, once confidence increases concerning the timing of the front.

On Tuesday, the cold front is forecast to move southward into north Texas and the southern Ozarks. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the front in the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 12

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, May 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, May 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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