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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, June 30
Wednesday, July 1
Thursday, July 2
Friday, July 3
Saturday, July 4
Sunday, July 5
Monday, July 6
Tuesday, July 7

Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the central High Plains, with severe wind gusts being the primary hazard. Other severe thunderstorms are still possible across the Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as broader parts of the central Plains to middle Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010106

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the central High Plains, with severe wind gusts being the primary hazard. Other severe thunderstorms are still possible across the Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as broader parts of the central Plains to middle Missouri Valley.

Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley

Between a broad large-scale trough over the West and an expansive upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, a belt of enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow is yielding around 40-50 kt of effective shear from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. Here, middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by 00Z observed soundings) are contributing to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. Despite gradual nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, this buoyancy and deep-layer shear will continue to promote the development of loosely organized convective clusters and supercell structures spreading northeastward overnight. The primary concern with this activity will be damaging/severe wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) and large hail.

Northeast

A band of thunderstorms tracking southeastward across southern Ontario could spread into parts of NY tonight, and given an established cold pool, damaging winds will be possible. However, surface observations and the 00Z ALB sounding suggest lingering low-level static stability in the wake of earlier convection may limit the overall severe risk.

..Weinman.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are expected, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms, posing mainly a damaging wind risk, are possible across parts of the Northeast and the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301745

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are expected, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms, posing mainly a damaging wind risk, are possible across parts of the Northeast and the central High Plains.

Synopsis

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday, eventually flattening the upper ridge over the Northeast late in the period. With this shortwave, a band of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A quasi-stationary surface boundary will extend from eastern SD northeast toward Lake Superior. Along and south of this boundary will be a focus for potentially multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Northeast, the South, the central/southern High Plains, and portions of Montana.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity

A somewhat similar pattern compared to previous days is expected on Wednesday. However, the upper trough moving across the region will be a bit strong as the upper low over the Canadian Prairies finally becomes more progressive. A belt of 50-70 kt southwesterly flow between 700-500 mb is noted in various forecast guidance, supporting 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and supercell wind profiles. The boundary layer continues to be very moist, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s present beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in strong to extreme buoyancy.

Convection may be ongoing early in the period near southern MN, though where exactly these storms are located depends on convective evolution in the current Day 1/Tuesday period. This convection could be severe with a risk for damaging winds and hail. It is possible this activity could develop east/northeast along the surface boundary and intensify through the morning/afternoon as it moves across WI and pose a severe risk of damaging winds. Or, it could weaken and additional severe storms could develop near the surface boundary across WI/northern MI during the day. Another round of convection is expected to develop during the evening across southern MN. This activity could initially be supercells, with an accompanying all-hazards severe risk. However, storms are expected to quickly grow upscale into a bowing MCS, moving east/northeast through the nighttime hours across WI/MI.

While exact convective evolution is uncertain, it does appear that more than one round of severe storms is possible across the region on Wednesday. Swaths of damaging winds (some to near 80 mph) appear likely. Isolated large to very large hail also is possible, especially if any supercell storm mode can persist. A few tornadoes also will be possible.

Northeast

Enhanced west/northwesterly flow will continue on Wednesday across the region. Another day of very moist and hot conditions is expected, supporting a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters posing a damaging wind and isolated hail risk will be possible during the afternoon. More organized convection is expected to sweep across the region during the evening/overnight hours as the upper ridge breaks down with the approach of an upper shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes. Organized convection over Ontario/Quebec will likely move east/southeast during the nighttime hours and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts.

Central/Southern High Plains

Convection is expected to develop along a surface dryline Wednesday afternoon/evening. Vertically veering wind profiles will increase southwesterly flow aloft will support transient supercell structures initially. Forecast hodographs show 25 kt effective shear magnitudes amid long/straight hodographs. Strong/severe outflow winds will be possible, along with isolated hail. Sufficient clustering/outflow consolidation may occur, supporting greater wind potential, particularly across the western KS vicinity.

Lower MS/TN Valleys vicinity

A similar pattern will exist across the region on Wednesday on the southern periphery of the upper anticyclone over the eastern U.S. Forecast guidance once again depicts modest midlevel east/northeasterly flow providing support for 20-25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Thunderstorm clusters will develop during the afternoon within the theta-e axis. The very moist and abundantly unstable airmass will support a wet microburst risk. If sufficient clustering occurs, some potential for forward propagating convection will exist, which could increase damaging wind potential through early evening.

MT

An upper trough over the western U.S. will bring modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across portions of the northern Rockies Wednesday afternoon/evening. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will gradually spread northeast from the Great Basin into parts of southwest/central MT atop modest low-level moisture. This will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear for organized cells/clusters will result in a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301911

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

Northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest

Upper ridging will build over the northern Plains on Thursday, though temperatures aloft will remain fairly cool at around -12 to -10 C at 500 mb. A broad belt of enhanced west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region, and a southerly low-level jet is forecast to intensify across the central into northern Plains overnight. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary will arc from northern North Dakota into central MN/WI during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend southward along the High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, while transporting low 60s dewpoints northwest to near the ND/SD/MT/WY border. A broad swath of moderate to strong instability will materialize across the warm sector buffered by these two surface boundaries.

Convection may be ongoing where from the Mid-MO Valley to Upper Midwest Thursday morning, though this is uncertain. Additional storms are expected during the afternoon along the surface boundaries across the northern High Plains southeastward into MN/IA/WI. Forecast soundings suggest supercell will be possible, with an accompanying all-hazards risk possible, at least initially. With time, convection in the High Plains should grow upscale and track southeast along the surface boundary and in the vicinity of the terminus of the increasing low-level jet. This activity will pose a risk of damaging wind swaths. Additional clustering/MCS development is possible near the surface boundary across MN/WI and perhaps into Lower MI during the evening/overnight.

TN Valley Vicinity

Another modest midlevel shortwave impulse will likely migrate through easterly flow on the southern periphery of the upper ridge over the eastern U.S. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will once again support a wet microburst risk, with some potential for sufficient clustering to result in forward propagating convection. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts are expected.

Northeast

A weak cold front will approach the region Thursday night as a surface low over Quebec lifts northeast. Ahead of this feature a very moist, hot, and unstable airmass will be in place. Minor height falls throughout the day and increasing westerly flow aloft will support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Strong/locally damaging gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, July 3 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, July 4 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, July 5 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, July 6 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, July 7 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, July 3 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, July 4 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, July 5 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, July 6 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, July 7 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, July 3 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, July 4 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, July 5 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, July 6 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, July 7 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, July 3 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, July 4 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, July 5 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, July 6 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, July 7 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Friday, July 3 predictability too low
Day 5 Saturday, July 4 predictability too low
Day 6 Sunday, July 5 predictability too low
Day 7 Monday, July 6 predictability too low
Day 8 Tuesday, July 7 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 30
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 1
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Thursday, July 2
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, July 3
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 6
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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