Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Damaging winds, severe hail, and a tornado or two may accompany these thunderstorms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of northern High Plains and central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST…CENTRAL PLAINS…AND CENTRAL MONTANA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Damaging winds, severe hail, and a tornado or two may accompany these thunderstorms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of northern High Plains and central Plains.
20z Update
The forecast remains on track with only minor changes made to the existing outlook. See the discussion below as well as MCDs 2148, 2149, and 2150 for additional details.
..Chalmers/Thornton.. 08/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026/
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
Recent surface analysis places a low over western Quebec, with a cold front arcing from this low southwestward through the middle OH Valley, western TN Valley and then westward across central AR and central OK. Satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough extending from northeastern Ontario through western PA, just west of the analyzed surface low. There also appears to be a more subtle shortwave trough farther south moving through WV towards VA.
Expectation is for the primary shortwave trough and cold front to continue eastward, interacting with the very moist airmass across the Northeast to support thunderstorm development this afternoon. 12Z ILN and PIT soundings sampled the moderate westerly flow aloft, supporting the potential for strong multicells along both the cold front and pre-frontal troughing. A few supercells are possible if warm sector development can mature without too much interaction with other convection. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, although the modestly cool temperatures aloft (i.e. -10 to -12 deg C at 500-mb) suggest some hail is possible as well.
A somewhat displaced area of earlier thunderstorm development is manifesting across the northern Mid-Atlantic. As mentioned in MCD #2145, a broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing as of mid-morning from the New York City vicinity southwest toward Baltimore, with that activity potentially being aided by forcing for ascent associated with the subtle shortwave trough moving into VA. Airmass across this region is very moist, and instability is steadily building under modest diurnal heating. Most guidance suggests this activity gradually increases in coverage and intensity over the next few hours. The presence of a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear would support a conditional risk for embedded supercell structures capable of locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado.
Northern Rockies/High Plains
Recent satellite imagery depicts a shortwave trough progressing across eastern OR towards ID and western MT. Moderate mid-level moisture and forcing for ascent associated with this wave are forecast to initiate thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon. This activity is then forecast to progress northeastward off the higher terrain into central MT, where a deeply mixed airmass is forecast to be in place. Despite this deep mixing and somewhat limited low-level moisture, the mid-level moisture associated with the shortwave will allow for at least modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 500 J/kg). This should support storm maintenance off the terrain, with a trend towards outflow-dominant bowing segments with time. Primary severe risk is damaging gusts, including the potential for gusts from 65 to 75 mph.
Central Plains… Moist southerly flow will help maintain moderate low-level moisture through the NE Panhandle and into southwest SD amid the strong heating and boundary-layer mixing expected this afternoon. Additionally, this modest, but persistent, warm-air advection is likely to force convective initiation this afternoon over the western NE/SD border vicinity. Low-level southerly flow veering to moderate northwesterlies aloft will support deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 kt, more than adequate for supercell development with any mature convective. Any sustained supercells will be capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches) as they track south-southeastward through the late afternoon into the evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing segments appears likely this evening, with strong to severe gusts (65 to 75 mph) possible.
An isolated threat for severe hail/gusts may also exist farther west/south across the CO Front Range to Raton Mesa vicinity. Weaker buoyancy and deep-layer shear should keep any more organized updrafts confined to the higher terrain and Foothills.
– No other changes needed to the outlook with the text for the additional areas appended from the 13Z Outlook below –
Great Basin
High-based thunderstorms should also develop this afternoon across portions of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While low/mid-level winds and related thunderstorm organization will likely be somewhat weaker/limited compared to areas farther north, steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong to severe outflow gusts as this convection spreads northeastward into the early evening.
South-Central/Coastal Texas into Southern Louisiana
Ongoing thunderstorms across southern LA may pose a threat for gusty winds this morning before they move offshore. Additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from parts of south-central TX towards the upper TX Coast, with isolated severe/damaging downburst winds possible given ample moisture/instability forecast. Weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe threat.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia, and the Dakotas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS…AND FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia, and the Dakotas.
Northern/Central Plains
Severe potential remains uncertain on Friday given upper ridging over the region for much of the diurnal cycle, though the upper ridge is expected to deampify during the evening/overnight period. Capping may largely limit convection through much of the day. However, surface troughing along the High Plains will strengthen with potential for weak surface low development over southwest SD during the evening. South/southeasterly low level flow will transport 60s dewpoint across eastern NE into much of the Dakotas east of the surface trough. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region atop the moistening boundary layer, and moderate destabilization is expected. Convection may eventually develop along the surface trough during the early evening as stronger height falls occur. Supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting large hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates are expected and strong outflow winds also could occur prior to stronger nocturnal low-level stabilization.
A 40 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to spread across NE into SD. This could support maintenance of convection spreading east of the surface trough, with a continued risk of hail, and possibly sporadic strong gusts if clustering/upscale growth can occur.
North Georgia into the southern Mid-Atlantic
A very moist airmass will be in place along/east of a surface trough. Stronger heating will result in moderate destabilization within a weakly sheared environment. Multicell thunderstorms could pose a risk for sporadic wet microbursts within a high PW environment.
Maine
A few strong storms will be possible as a cold front shifts east across New England through early evening. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will result in around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, poor lapse rates and cooler afternoon temperatures will limit destabilization. Additionally, flow below 700 mb will remain rather modest. While gusty winds or small hail could occur with the strongest storms, severe potential is expected to remain low.
Intermountain West
Around 30-50 kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb will overspread portions of the region as an upper shortwave impulse migrates from NV into WY. Instability is expected to remain weak, modulated by modest midlevel lapse rates and stronger heating remaining confined to areas further south. Deep boundary layer mixing will still occur, and could promote some potential for gusty outflow winds, but overall severe potential appears low given limited instability.
..Leitman.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the northern Great Basin to the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271917
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the northern Great Basin to the northern Plains.
Great Basin to Northern Plains
A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to upper 50s, though 60s are possible across portions of the Dakotas. This will support modest destabilization from the Great Basin into the Dakotas. Widely scattered storms are expected to develop across the Great Basin and spread east/northeast through evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and stronger flow atop a well mixed boundary layer will support occasional strong to severe gusts.
Sufficient clustering may occur, supporting some upscale development as storms move over eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas during the evening. It is possible this activity will encounter a more moist and unstable airmass, promoting greater severe potential. However, the evolution of a surface low and associated frontal boundary across the Dakotas is uncertain, precluding higher severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, September 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, September 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, September 3 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Sunday - Northern Plains
Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.
D5 and Beyond
The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 08/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 27
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, August 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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