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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, March 30
Monday, March 31
Tuesday, April 1
Wednesday, April 2
Thursday, April 3
Friday, April 4
Saturday, April 5
Sunday, April 6

Outlook for Sunday, March 30

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 45%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301245

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong.

Synopsis

A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX.

Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes

Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection.

Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.

Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast

A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon.

Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast.

Florida Peninsula

A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 31

Outlook Summary

Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300607

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA…GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

Strong/severe thunderstorms – with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes – are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area

An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms – likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk – are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area – where CAPE should remain modest – will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 1

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop after dark from central and northeastern Kansas east-northeastward to northwestern Illinois, where large hail would be the main severe risk.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300732

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop after dark from central and northeastern Kansas east-northeastward to northwestern Illinois, where large hail would be the main severe risk.

Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valley, southward into Texas

Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to amplify over the western U.S. Tuesday, as several short-wave features rotate through the flow. A prominent/initial wave is forecast to shift into the central/northern Plains overnight, evolving into a closed low over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In response, a surface low over the central High Plains early in the day is forecast to deepen/shift northeastward into the Mid Missouri Valley area overnight. A trailing cold front will shift across the central and southern Plains through the second half of the period.

Diurnal convection ahead of the advancing upper system, and attendant cold front, should remain largely suppressed through the day by stout capping. A dryline storm or two cannot be ruled out, and very limited/conditional potential for hail or a damaging gust may exist across southern Oklahoma south into central Texas.

Greater risk will evolve overnight, mainly with elevated storms near and north of a warm front lifting across Kansas/Missouri. Large hail would be the primary risk in this area, with shear favoring supercells. While the NAM hinders convection south of Kansas through the period (due to maintenance of a capping inversion), both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that isolated storms may initiate along the cold front. While only MRGL risk will be included at this time, due to the conditional risk for surface-based/all-hazards risk should storms develop along the front, this will need to be reassessed in later outlooks with possible SLGT risk upgrade.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 2

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, April 2 30%
Day 5 Thursday, April 3 15%
Day 6 Friday, April 4 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, April 5 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, April 6 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED

### DISCUSSION

Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area – from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development.

With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period.

Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area.

By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 3

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, April 2 30%
Day 5 Thursday, April 3 15%
Day 6 Friday, April 4 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, April 5 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, April 6 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED

### DISCUSSION

Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area – from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development.

With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period.

Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area.

By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, April 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, April 2 30%
Day 5 Thursday, April 3 15%
Day 6 Friday, April 4 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, April 5 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, April 6 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED

### DISCUSSION

Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area – from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development.

With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period.

Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area.

By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, April 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, April 2 30%
Day 5 Thursday, April 3 15%
Day 6 Friday, April 4 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, April 5 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, April 6 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED

### DISCUSSION

Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area – from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development.

With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period.

Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area.

By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, April 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Wednesday, April 2 30%
Day 5 Thursday, April 3 15%
Day 6 Friday, April 4 predictability too low
Day 7 Saturday, April 5 predictability too low
Day 8 Sunday, April 6 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED

### DISCUSSION

Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area – from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development.

With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period.

Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area.

By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 30
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 45%
Monday, March 31
TORNADO: 10%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Tuesday, April 1
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 2
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, April 3
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 4
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 5
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 6
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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