Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131948
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
20z Update
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore. Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited.
..Moore.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/
Southeast TX/Southwest LA
Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow surface cold front sags southward through the region. Model guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few pre-frontal thunderstorms. Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will preclude organized severe storms. However, small hail is possible in the strongest cores tonight.
FL
A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely with these scenarios.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Summary
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131711
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).
Synopsis
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.
Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will build over much of the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level trough de-amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Surface high pressure will sweep across much of the southern and eastern CONUS with a statically stable airmass, while a cold and/or dry surface airmass encompasses much of the Plains into the Interior West. As a result, thunderstorm development should be negligible over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be over portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Here, the de-amplifying ridge will aid in the advection of colder temperatures atop a marine boundary layer. Given at least modest forcing for ascent and scant buoyancy, a few lightning flashes may occur.
..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, December 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, December 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, December 20 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.
The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.
A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.
Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.
..Bentley.. 12/13/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, December 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, December 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, December 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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