Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC…THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.
Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians
A shortwave trough embedded within broader northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move eastward from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic through today. Embedded within a broader upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes, this shortwave perturbation will serve as a focus for convective development across the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians this afternoon. As ascent overspreads the area, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across southern PA, northern MD into NJ and southern NY.
South of the front, a very moist air mass (dewpoints in the 70s F) will lift northward. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy is expected south of the front and ahead of a trailing lee trough into southern VA. Ongoing storms from a remnant morning cluster may reintensify as they cross the Appalachians late morning and early afternoon. Additional, possibly discrete, development may occur east of the Blue Ridge and across the higher terrain of southern PA and northern MD near the front by late morning. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear ahead of the front is forecast to support a mix of supercells and line segments. Damaging winds and isolated severe gusts appear probable. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the front may also support a couple of tornadoes and marginally severe hail with any more robust QLCS segments or supercells.
Central Plains
Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a cold front moving southward from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will support moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. A shortwave impulse within the broader trough should overspread the destabilizing air mass and aide in convective development along the front across MN and SD, and farther south near the front and surface trough intersection in central NE.
Forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs aloft. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Some significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) is possible across the southern risk area given steeper mid-level lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat deeper low-level moisture. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.
Southeast
South of the primary upper wave over parts of the Western Carolinas and TN Valley, a surface trough in the lee of the Appalachians may focus convective development during the afternoon. A few stronger clusters with damaging gusts are possible, though weaker flow aloft suggests more limited storm organization.
Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon within a seasonably hot and humid air mass across the southeast and lower MS Valley. Convective coverage is likely to focus along a weakening cold front sagging southward across parts of AR/LA and western MS and near a weak MCV across the central Gulf Coast. With PWATs upwards of 2 inches, some potential for wet microbursts are possible with the stronger storm clusters through early evening.
AZ
Strong heating beneath a prominent upper ridge will support another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Seasonably rich monsoon moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s F) will support moderate destabilization amid modest easterly mid-level flow. A few high-based clusters are possible, initially over the higher terrain, before expanding west and south into the lower elevations. This could support a few severe gusts given steep lapse rates.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas and Georgia.
NE into northern KS
Moderate northwest flow aloft will develop over the northern to central Plains on Friday, as a surface trough develops over the High Plains. This will result in directional shear with elongated hodographs featuring 50 kt effective deep-layer shear. Storms are expected to develop near the low-level lapse rate plume during the late afternoon over central to western NE, with cells moving southeastward into the mid 60s F dewpoints and producing very large hail. Isolated significant wind gusts may also occur if storms/outflows merge, possibly extending into northern KS during the evening. Overall storm coverage is uncertain, but at least scattered cells appear likely, with high conditional risk of severe hail/wind.
Carolinas…GA
A very moist and unstable air mass is forecast over the region on Friday, near a surface trough and south of a cold front pushing into NC. Numerous storms are forecast to develop after 20Z, within a weak shear/strong instability environment. MLCAPE is forecast to be over 3000 J/kg, supporting vigorous updrafts and locally severe microbursts and outflows.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Summary
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the Northwest on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 200730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
### SUMMARY
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the Northwest on Saturday.
Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes
An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday with a 50 kt backside speed max in the midlevels from MN into IL. While winds aloft will be weaker farther east, cooling aloft will overspread the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front will push across Lower MI, IN and OH during the day, with a plume of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing. This will support clusters of storms with strong to severe gust potential. The cool temperatures aloft and effective shear to 30 kt may also support marginal hail.
Parts of eastern WA…ID…western MT
A shortwave trough will move across the Northwest on Saturday, with a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max moving across the region along with cooling aloft. This trough will steepen midlevel lapse rates, resulting in an unstable air mass as daytime heating occurs. Storms are likely to form near the surface trough, and spread across northern ID and into western MT through the evening and overnight. The strengthening wind fields combined with favorable lapse rates will support cells with marginal hail, as well as corridors of strong wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 08/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, August 20
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, August 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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