Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Summary
An isolated risk for severe weather is possible today along the middle coast of Texas and central into southern Arizona.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301619
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE COAST OF TEXAS AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
An isolated risk for severe weather is possible today along the middle coast of Texas and central into southern Arizona.
Middle Coast of TX
An upper trough and associated vorticity maximum evident in midday water-vapor imagery over the Rio Grande Valley will continue east-northeast and reach the Ark-La-Tex and northwest Gulf Coast by late evening. A zone of warm advection immediately ahead of the disturbance will advance northeast up the coast during the afternoon. The inland penetration of higher theta-e into the coastal counties may result in sufficient buoyancy for a couple of stronger updrafts. Some enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph within a moist environment may yield a risk for a brief tornado near the coast this afternoon.
Arizona
A shortwave trough moving into southern CA will continue northeast towards the Four Corners during the period. Copious mid to high-level cloud cover will likely limit heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer across the lower desert. Model guidance continues to indicate the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms developing later today. An isolated risk for marginally severe hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the stronger thunderstorms.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301713
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress along the Gulf Coast. Farther west, an upper trough will deepen within the Great Basin with another shortwave tough approaching the Baja Peninsula.
Scattered storms are expected within a weak warm advection regime from east Texas into the Mid South and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The strongest activity will likely remain offshore. Cold temperatures aloft and minimal buoyancy will support isolated thunderstorm activity within portions of the northern Great Basin. Early morning thunderstorm activity will also be possible within a zone of modest warm advection from southeast South Dakota into eastern Iowa. Little to no severe risk is expected Saturday given the poor thermodynamic environment.
..Wendt.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are anticipated from central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO…AND SMALL PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are anticipated from central New Mexico into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.
Discussion
An amplified upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Sunday, while another wave to the south moves across northern Baja CA and into AZ. By late in the day, gusty south winds will increase across the Rockies and into the southern High Plains, as low pressure develops over WY through 00Z.
During the late evening and overnight, a prominent cold front will move out of AZ and into NM as the parent wave aloft continues northeastward across NM and into the central to southern High Plains. The surface low is forecast to deepen overnight into CO, with a surface trough into eastern NM and western TX through 12Z Monday.
After a full day of heating, low-level lapse rates will be steep, and gusty winds overnight should maintain relatively warm temperatures ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints from the upper 40s to mid 50s F should also be maintained ahead of the front, with thunderstorms developing near the cold front after about 03-06Z. Deep-layer shear will be strong, with supercell wind profiles. Instability will be marginal over central NM, perhaps supporting locally severe gusts or marginal hail, with a potentially greater concentration of severe storms into eastern NM where low-level moisture will be more abundant with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. The strongest cooling aloft will spread over northern NM and into the TX Panhandle, and this is where a potentially greater hail and wind threat could develop. Both cellular and possibly QLCS storm mode will be possible, with storms tied to the cold front. A small corridor of higher severe probabilities could be added in later outlooks as trends warrant.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, November 2 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300859 SPC AC 300859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid 60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely. Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.
By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and widespread clouds/precip.
This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over some of the Gulf Coast states.
..Jewell.. 10/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, October 30
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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