Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151624

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

Southeast

A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests additional strong convection may develop across these areas in closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150557

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

Discussion

General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially significant downstream trough inland across California and much of the Great Basin by late Monday night.

As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin, in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard.

It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco Bay vicinity during the day Monday.

Southern California coast

Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling,

thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may become conducive to the development of supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.

Central Valley

There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150828

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.

Discussion

Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component. Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower Mississippi Valley.

Pacific Coast

Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm development, seems likely to become focused across northern and central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe limits.

Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest

There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 15%

Monday, February 16

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, February 17

ANY SEVERE: low

Wednesday, February 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, February 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, February 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, February 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, February 22

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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