Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100537
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Synopsis and Discussion
A progressive and amplifying polar branch of westerlies is forecast over the northern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. Within that air stream, a short-wave trough will move through the Northeast, while an upstream system intensifies over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude system over TX is expected to de-amplify while advancing into the lower MS Valley. At the surface, a lee cyclone and attending trough initially over the High Plains will shift east through the northern and central Plains into the Midwest, in tandem with the previously mentioned upper-air system. Increasing southerly flow ahead of that frontal system will support the poleward advance of a partially modified continental-polar air mass from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along the middle TX Coast Tuesday morning, and from the middle TX Coast into southern LA Tuesday night, within a zone of low-level warm advection and weak instability preceding the midlevel wave. Along the Pacific Northwest Coast, moist onshore flow coupled with a slight steepening of midlevel lapse rates will yield weak instability and the potential for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Over south FL, slight cooling aloft will combine with a moist PBL to yield MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg by afternoon when isolated thunderstorms appear possible. Elsewhere, isolated lightning strikes appear possible over northern or central TX, northern New England, and perhaps the eastern Dakotas Tuesday afternoon into evening. Lightning duration and coverage in those areas appear too limited to warrant general thunderstorm/10% probability contours.
..Mead.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100649
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.
Lower Ohio and Western Tennessee Valleys
A mid-level shortwave trough will dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 50s F over parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys by afternoon. Surface heating will result in weak destabilization along and near a moist axis. Near this axis, large-scale ascent associated with the trough will aid convective development in the late afternoon and early evening. Scattered storms appear likely to develop near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and spread eastward across southern Indiana, western Kentucky and northern Tennessee during the early evening. RRFS forecast soundings across western Kentucky at 00Z have MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. This may be sufficient for a marginal severe threat with a few severe wind gusts possible. However, lapse rates are forecast to be poor which will be a limiting factor, helping to keep any severe threat localized.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, November 16 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090737 SPC AC 090737
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
DISCUSSION
On Thursday/Day 4, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as an associated cold front advances southeastward to near the Atlantic coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front and ahead of the trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible, but any potential for severe gusts should be minimal due to weak instability. From the weekend into early next week, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. In response, a cold and dry airmass is expected to settle in over much of the continental U.S., which will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development in most areas.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, November 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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