Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Discussion
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S. border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However, modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
Central Great Plains
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments which will influence convective potential this afternoon into tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient for organized convection, including supercells. And any thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet (including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening, particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and convection weakens.
Southeast
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm development which could eventually pose increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240546
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
Synopsis
A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to the Midwest and in the Southeast.
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region
While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe potential.
Southern NM into west TX
An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains displaced to the east across western Texas.
Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the placement of mesoscale features remains too low.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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