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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211957

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley

Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes.

KS/OK this evening/tonight

Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary.

Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential.

..Lyons.. 06/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

MO/IL/IN/KY

A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details.

MO/KS/OK/AR

In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur.

NE/CO/KS

Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening.

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

A series of perturbations, embedded within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow, will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast, to the south of an upper low tracking from eastern Ontario into southern Quebec. Farther west, separate vorticity maxima will overspread the northern and central High Plains, in tandem with a belt of strengthening mid-level winds.

In the lower levels, a 40-50 kt low-level jet (LLJ) is forecast to migrate from the Allegheny Plateau into the lower Hudson and DE River Valleys Monday afternoon, ahead of a surface low developing toward those same areas. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance south through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Ozark Plateau, with the western extension of the boundary linking with a secondary low over western TX. Elsewhere, a lee cyclone is expected to deepen over eastern WY, along a weak front settling southeast through the northern High Plains.

### Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians

12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the remnants of an overnight (Sunday night/early Monday morning) MCS overspreading NY and PA, within a zone of warm air and moisture advection occurring with the terminus of the LLJ. To the south/southeast of that convection across the lower Hudson and DE River Valleys, modest air mass destabilization is expected, with comparably stronger instability with southward extent into the central/southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen through the day as a belt of 40-50 kt winds at 500 mb overspreads the region from the west.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage and intensity during the afternoon from the vicinity of the outflow or differential heating boundary in eastern PA south/southwest into the southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard owing to steepening low-level lapse rates and high moisture content, which will enhance wet-microburst processes. A relatively narrow corridor of potentially greater tornado potential may materialize from the DelMarVa into the DE River Valley, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. However, given uncertainties in the degree of air mass destabilization in the northern extent of that area, the 2% unconditional tornado probability will be maintained. A separate area of tornado potential may materialize Monday afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians within the southwest extension of the LLJ, where a number of the 12Z CAMs indicate updraft-helicity swaths embedded within a linear complex of storms.

### Northern and central High Plains

The deepening lee cyclone will enhance the flux of an increasingly moist low-level air mass into the high terrain, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, supporting moderate afternoon instability. Greatest storm coverage is expected across portions of eastern MT and western ND Monday afternoon within the northern extent of the instability axis, where the strongest forcing for ascent is expected. Weaker forcing with southward extent is expected to lead to more widely spaced storms in eastern WY and CO. Here, comparatively stronger instability and vertical shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two during the afternoon and evening hours.

### Southern Plains

Areas of storms ongoing Monday morning across parts of the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex region are expected to gradually weaken by midday, owing to rising mid-level heights across the region. In the wake of that activity, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon in the vicinity of the stalled synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. However, considerable uncertainty remains in surface-based storm development given the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent. As such, the low unconditional probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. On the condition surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the parameter space would support intense supercells capable of large to very large hail and some tornado threat.

..Mead.. 06/21/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211916

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

Synopsis

An upper low initially over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will drift southeast to along the international border with an attending belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. Farther east, a short-wave trough trailing an upper low over Ontario will move through the Mid-Atlantic. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

### Central and southern High Plains

Despite the potential for early-day storms across portions of NE, TX, and OK, the EML is expected to remain intact over the central High Plains. When coupled with an increasingly moist upslope air mass in the vicinity of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to form along favored terrain and pre-existing surface boundaries amidst a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering winds with height with sufficient vertical shear to support supercells capable of large to very large hail. The nocturnal strengthening of a low-level jet over western parts of KS, OK, and TX may favor upscale growth of storms into a forward-propagating MCS Tuesday evening with an associated increase in severe-wind-gust potential.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley

Latest model data are in good agreement in depicting areas of showers and storms lingering through much of the day across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is forecast to be sufficiently strong to support organized storm modes, especially across the upper MS Valley. However, the potential for clouds and precipitation to limit air mass destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, the low severe-weather probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update.

### Middle and southern Atlantic Coast into the central Gulf Coast States

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front. While poor low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit a more robust damaging-wind threat, low severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added once details in storm evolution become more clear.

..Mead.. 06/21/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210811 SPC AC 210811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains

As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized.

Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 21

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, June 22

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, June 23

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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