Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts 60 to 90 mph become the most prominent hazard by this evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171239
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts 60 to 90 mph become the most prominent hazard by this evening.
Synopsis
Surface analysis this morning depicts a front bisecting MN north to south to a low near the NE-IA-SD border, with the front extending southwestward into the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery shows a prominent upper trough near the MT-ND border south-southwestward into eastern UT. A belt of increasingly strong southwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a destabilizing warm sector today as the upper trough eventually reaches the Upper Midwest and central Great Plains late tonight. Concurrently, the aforementioned cyclone will develop northeast to Lake Superior as a warm front over IA advances northward into the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the cold front will sweep southeast reaching the central Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Great Plains by early Saturday.
Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley
A northward expanding warm/moist sector on the nose of a 50+ kt southerly LLJ will continue to destabilize as large-scale ascent approaches from the west. A large-hail threat may develop this morning with developing convection across southern MN (see forthcoming MCD #472 for short-term details). Heating and advection of 60s deg F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support the development of a moderately to very unstable airmass from IA-IL northward into the upper MS Valley to the east of the front and southeast of the low. Upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast immediately ahead of the front with strengthening flow aloft, strongly favoring organized storms, including supercells. Recent model guidance continues to show the development of discrete supercells later this afternoon ahead of the front over parts of central/northern WI near the low, and farther south in the vicinity of eastern IA into adjacent portions of WI/northwest IL. All hazards will be possible with this potential activity, including the possibility for an intense tornado. Large to giant hail will be possible with supercells. Other storms likely to evolve quickly into a band of severe thunderstorms will develop farther west and push east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes. Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices, before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into IN/Lower MI late.
KS-OK eastward into the lower MO Valley
Continued moistening and heating of an airmass to the east of a dryline/cold front and associated triple point will lead to a very unstable airmass from OK into KS by early to mid afternoon. A capping inversion will likely inhibit storm development until mid afternoon near the front. Initial storm development will likely be supercellular near the triple point before a more extensive band of cellular storms develops along the boundary. Both a supercell and QLCS tornado risk is apparent given the appreciably large CAPE/shear. A coalescing of cold pools and intensification of a squall line with embedded surges and bowing segments may result in focused swaths of more intense severe gusts (i.e., locally 75-90 mph) from south-central and eastern KS into west-central MO. Farther south, a more conditional setup south of the triple point along the dryline is expected. Large to giant hail could accompany any mature/sustained supercell along with a tornado risk. Eventually the front will sweep southeastward with a convective line yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170525
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.
Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell structures.
Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York. However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170653
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to southeast Canada during the day on Sunday. A cold front is forecast to initially exist from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle. The cold front will move into the Atlantic and Gulf as surface high pressure builds in its wake.
Some lingering moisture and weak instability will likely be present ahead of the front Sunday morning. By late morning, heating may be sufficient for some storms along and ahead of the front. However, given the weak instability, no severe weather is expected. This front will continue southeast into the Atlantic/Gulf by late afternoon and bring an end to any storm threat across the CONUS (except for the Florida Peninsula).
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 17
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Saturday, April 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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