Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201246

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

Central Plains

Recent surface observations show a front extending from the central High Plains of eastern CO into KS, and continuing east-northeastward into the mid MS Valley/Upper Midwest. Isolated/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning to the north of the front across parts of central NE into north-central KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm advection over the southern/central Plains. While isolated hail may occur in the short-term with this activity given weak MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer, current expectations are for a more robust severe threat to develop across the central Plains later this afternoon and evening.

Initially high-based thunderstorms will likely form by early to mid afternoon along/east of the higher terrain of eastern CO/southeast WY in a weak low-level upslope flow regime, and as modest large-scale ascent preceding an eastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will be in place with eastward extent across KS/NE, and these thunderstorms should gradually strengthen as they move eastward. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail, with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in the hail-growth zone possibly supporting isolated very large hail (2+ inches).

While exact details of subsequent convective evolution remain somewhat unclear, these initial supercells will probably tend to interact/grow upscale in some form along and near the surface front from late afternoon through the evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens over the central High Plains. An increasing threat for at least scattered severe/damaging winds should be realized as one or more bowing clusters spreads east-southeastward across NE/KS. Isolated significant gusts (75+ mph) may occur with the more intense portions of these clusters. Some risk for a few tornadoes should also exist, mainly late this afternoon into the evening with either persistent supercells or embedded within clusters as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with the low-level jet. A severe wind threat may continue through the overnight hours farther east across KS and perhaps into parts of western MO.

Northern Utah/Eastern Idaho into Western/Central Wyoming

A weak mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin this morning will continue to move eastward across the northern/central Rockies today. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain limited along/west of the higher terrain, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates will exist with a very well-mixed boundary layer this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will support east-northeastward developing convection through the afternoon/evening across parts of northern UT/eastern ID into western/central WY. This activity may pose a threat for occasional strong to severe winds, but the overall severe threat should tend to remain isolated due to the weak instability forecast.

Gulf Coast/Southeast

Modest flow aloft (generally 25 kt or less) will exist today across much of the Gulf Coast/Southeast, as a mid-level anticyclone remains anchored over the Gulf. A very moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s, exists along/south of convection ongoing from parts of coastal/east TX into the lower MS Valley. Given the weak mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear, overall thunderstorm organization and intensity should remain fairly limited. Even so, occasional damaging winds could occur as the loosely organized cluster spreads east-southeastward into a destabilizing airmass across the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states through the afternoon.

Western Pennsylvania

Within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, low-topped thunderstorms should develop/move across parts of western PA and vicinity this afternoon. Instability will remain weak, but modestly enhanced flow and steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong gusts from convective downdrafts. The overall magnitude of the threat still appears too limited for low severe wind probabilities.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Synopsis

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the central portion of the CONUS along a surface frontal zone. The primary surface low is expected to settle somewhere near the Texas Panhandle on Sunday with a weaker, perhaps convectively enhanced, surface low across the Midwest.

Ozarks into the Lower Ohio River Valley

An expansive MCS will likely be present across eastern Kansas and into Missouri on Sunday morning. This MCS will continue east through the day and eventually into the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. An outflow boundary will likely be left in the wake of this MCS across Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon. The degree of airmass recovery within this region remains uncertain. Some guidance shows a secondary MCS moving into northeast Oklahoma and northern Arkansas, which may have implications on the upstream EML and the potential for clearing/recovery in the wake of the morning MCS. However, other guidance shows an EML advecting into the region and aiding in recovery during the afternoon/evening. A localized corridor with greater tornado threat likely exists along this boundary from eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and perhaps southwest Indiana, but too much uncertainty from prior storms precludes any higher tornado probabilities at this time.

Central High Plains Vicinity

Storms are forecast to develop within the upslope flow across western Kansas by mid-afternoon. Easterly surface flow, combined with strengthening flow aloft (in excess of 50 knots above 400mb) will support supercell structures and the potential for large to very large hail. Storm motions will be relatively slow and thus, the storms likely won't make it that far east due to increasing inhibition with eastward extent. However, some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRW-NSSL WRF show some elevated supercells farther north into Nebraska toward the end of the period. If this persists in later guidance, an eventual eastward expansion of the Slight Risk may be needed.

Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

Storms will continue to build westward during the day into eastern and perhaps central Kansas, and will congeal and shift southward through the evening. Overnight, as the low-level jet strengthens, expect storms to develop in an area with moderate to strong instability. These storms may pose some initial hail threat before growing upscale into an MCS with a wind threat across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma during the overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the mid-Atlantic to the Mid-South and southern Plains and into the central High Plains on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200738

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION IN THE SUMMARY

SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms are expected along a frontal zone that extends from the mid-Atlantic to the Mid-South and southern Plains and into the central High Plains on Monday.

Synopsis

A flat ridge is forecast across the western CONUS with broad cyclonic flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Within this zone, several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are expected, the strongest of which will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic during the day Monday. A weak surface low will likely be associated with this lead shortwave trough with an additional lee trough, likely across the southern High Plains. A frontal zone will extend between these 2 features and act as the primary focus for storm development through the period on Monday.

Central/southern Plains

A MCS should be ongoing at the beginning of the period across parts of Oklahoma on the nose of the low-level jet. An outflow boundary will likely extend westward from this MCS into parts of Northwest Texas and into the Texas Panhandle.

Very strong to extreme instability is forecast across the southern Plains on Monday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and steep lapse rates. Model guidance is consistent showing a weak mid-level shortwave trough emerging across the southern Plains by 00Z Tuesday with 30 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. The combination of this shortwave trough and the potential for an outflow boundary intersecting the dryline may result in a more focused area of severe potential Monday afternoon/evening. However, due to the mesoscale nature of this potential, confidence is not high enough to add a Slight Risk at this time.

Mid South

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the MCS across Oklahoma and Arkansas Monday morning. Given the very moist airmass, inhibition should be eroded by mid-day. Therefore, reintensification of the morning MCS or additional development to the east along the front (likely a combination of both) is expected from near the Red River to northern Mississippi. This strong instability, combined with modest shear, will support some damaging wind threat with a southeastward moving cluster of storms Monday afternoon/evening.

Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic

A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening. In addition, a smaller area of greater low-level shear may exist closer to the surface low across northern Virginia and vicinity, which could have a localized region of greater tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200830 SPC AC 200830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth nothing that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 20

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 21

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Monday, June 22

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, June 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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