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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 291246

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

Southeast States

Near the base of the extensive eastern CONUS trough, a cold front will slowly spread southward/stall regionally, with a moist and unstable air mass to its south. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to an axis of strong instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000+ J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. Damaging winds will be possible with the stronger storms, which could include the development of some semi-organized clusters into late afternoon/early evening.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

An approaching disturbance and weak height falls will develop into the region later today, interfacing with an east-southeastward moving front and somewhat sharpening the regional lee trough ahead of it. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F will contribute to moderate instability as surface temperatures diurnally warm. Low-level convergence along the front/lee trough will aid convective initiation, with scattered thunderstorms moving eastward across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. Large hail can be expected, and the high-based storms will be capable of severe-caliber wind gusts, especially if storms aggregate and cluster into the evening.

Farther east, a more conditional-type threat will exist diurnally into northern Minnesota within a very unstable environment, but it is a bit more probable that widely scattered storms develop into the region tonight. If so, a few severe storms capable of wind/hail could occur.

Great Basin/northern Intermountain West

A northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough and speed max, along with diurnal heating, will influence thunderstorm development across the region, including portions of southern/eastern Idaho and nearby portions of northeast Nevada, northern Utah and southwest Montana. Modestly enhanced mid-level winds and sufficient buoyancy/steep lapse rates will support the potential for a few severe storms capable of severe-caliber wind gusts and possibly some hail.

Coastal southern New England

Bands of semi-organized convection will move toward the coast through the afternoon, preceding the offshore surface low/triple point. Some stronger storms could materialize toward the coast with gusts given the strengthening low-level winds, but current thinking is the primary warm sector should remain offshore and limit the severe potential.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains, the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 290542

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains, the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Plains Thursday morning will translate into the upper Midwest, while a trailing disturbance moves through the mid MO Valley. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow is forecast with the secondary system over the central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low is expected to track from SD into MN, along a cool front moving through the upper MS Valley and the northern Plains into the central Plains. A secondary low is forecast to deepen along the front over central KS.

### Northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and the central Plains

Latest model guidance continues to indicate showers and thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Thursday across the northern Plains into the mid MO Valley, within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the lead short-wave trough. A subset of that convection may linger into afternoon with associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon in the vicinity of the cool front and any differential heating/outflow boundaries associated with previous and/or active convection. A separate area of storms may also develop later in the afternoon over eastern MT in the vicinity of a surface low and lee trough. Damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard, though isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.

A number of physics-based models and AI guidance indicate a corridor from south-central SD into central or eastern NE as being a preferred location for upscale growth of storms into a cold-pool-driven MCS Thursday afternoon into evening, which would enhance the damaging-wind potential. That scenario appears plausible as the consensus of model guidance depicts that zone as having the most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and modest vertical shear. Given these considerations, a 15% wind probability contour and related level 2/Slight Risk have been included to account for that potential.

Enhanced moisture transport and storm-relative inflow along a nocturnal low-level jet are likely to sustain a complex of storms with some damaging wind risk Thursday night, mainly over eastern KS into the mid MO Valley.

### Raton Mesa vicinity

Convergence along the southward-moving front and/or upslope in its immediate wake are expected to foster isolated to widely scattered storms by mid afternoon along the high terrain. While vertical will remain relatively weak, the presence of a steep-lapse-rate environment, featuring a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

### Central and eastern Gulf Coast

Early-day thunderstorms are expected across portions of the far northeast Gulf and central FL Peninsula. To the north of that convection, model guidance indicates a corridor of moderate to strong instability developing by afternoon in the vicinity of a stalled front. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected within that zone of stronger air mass destabilization with steepening low-level lapse rates and high precipitable water content supportive of locally damaging wet microbursts.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Summary

Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the Ozark Plateau and central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 290725

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the Ozark Plateau and central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A vigorous short-wave trough over the upper Midwest into the mid MO Valley Friday morning will progress into the mid MS Valley with a belt of 30-35 kt mid-level flow forecast within the western through southern periphery of that feature. In the low levels, a surface low is expected to deepen slightly while developing through IA into west-central IL with a north-south-oriented warm front preceding the cyclone. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau with the western extension of the boundary advancing through the southern High Plains.

### Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning ahead of the surface low from central and eastern IA into MO within a zone of warm advection and moist transport along a 30-40 kt low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ will be maintained through the forecast period ahead of the surface-850 mb low with the same processes likely sustaining showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the associated warm front/moisture discontinuity. A zone of enhanced low-level shear will coincide with the LLJ axis; however, it remains unclear whether sufficient surface-based destabilization will occur within the narrow warm sector over the mid MS Valley for a tornado threat to materialize.

Isolated severe storms appear more probable along and ahead of the cold front over the Ozark Plateau Friday afternoon into evening, where a wider and more unstable warm sector is expected to reside. The presence of a vertically veering wind profile with modestly strong low-level and deep-layer shear may be sufficient for some storm organization and an associated damaging wind and possible tornado threat. Only a 5% probability and level 1/Marginal Risk will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty in surface-based storm coverage.

### Central and southern High Plains

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible Friday afternoon into evening within a moist and moderately unstable post-frontal upslope regime. Sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast to support some storm organization with an associated risk for marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 29

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, July 30

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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