Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 012000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

20Z Update

The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into central KS.

..Squitieri.. 06/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/

Mid-South into the Southeast

An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN. Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue for the next hour or two, before building instability along the western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely remain transient.

Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.

The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the evening before weakening.

High Plains

Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater low-level moisture.

Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along the dryline in TX.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.

Northern Plains

A slow-moving upper low will exist from northern MT into southern SK, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front will develop from central WY into western ND by 00Z. Cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield moderate instability ahead of the front. Effective shear in excess of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of damaging hail. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00Z and may support MCS potential during the evening with areas of damaging winds. A couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern WY with the initial activity, or into ND where temp/dewpoint depressions may be less.

Central to Southern High Plains

Although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region, temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as NM and OK. Easterly surface winds will maintain a moist air mass into KS/CO, with southeasterly winds into NM. Scattered storms are likely after 21Z along the Front Range and extending south across central and eastern NM, and some of this activity will persist into southwest NE, western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles late. Locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear will remain weak.

Isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the afternoon from southwest KS into western OK, with localize wind and hail potential.

Far southern GA and AL into northern FL

An upper trough will dive southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and into the Southeast with a cold front pushing south across GA and into AL during the day and into northern FL late. A moist air mass will exist ahead of the front, with MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg. Storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with increasing storm coverage. Deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as they move southeastward from southern GA into northern FL including the Jacksonville area. Additional storms are likely over the eastern FL Peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence, with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High Plains.

Northern Plains

Slight cooling aloft will occur over ND into northern MN as a shortwave trough slowly moves east across the area. Midlevel winds of 35-45 kt are forecast, resulting in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt as southerly winds of 30 kt develop at 850 mb. A cold front will move into eastern ND and central SD during the afternoon, providing a focus for storm development. MUCAPE may average around 1500 J/kg with low 60s F dewpoints, though models disagree on this. Some forecast soundings appear favorable for a supercells with good mid to high level flow and increasing evening SRH, especially across the Red River Valley and into northwest MN.

Central Plains and into NM

A moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the central and southern Plains as well as into NM. Shear will be weak, but the air mass will be uncapped over this entire area as temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool. As such, scattered areas of thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon along the length of the High Plains, with localized wind or hail. Moisture will push westward across NM as well, again with isolated strong gusts or small hail.

..Jewell.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, June 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, June 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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