Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, December 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071936
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
### SUMMARY
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening.
20Z Update
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/
Florida Peninsula
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida and the Keys on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071711
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida and the Keys on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.
South Florida
An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf will pivot east on Monday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by late evening. Enhanced mid/upper westerly flow will extend across the Southeast into the FL Peninsula early in the day, and weaken with time through the period. At the surface, a cold front over south-central FL will develop southward through the day, moving offshore during the evening.
Large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the area, with any stronger forcing focused well north of the region. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will exist ahead of the boundary, and weak instability is noted in forecast soundings. Poor lapse rates will limit updraft intensity, and forcing along the front also will be modest given veering low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning across South FL and surroundings coastal/near-shore areas. This activity may persist into the afternoon before diminishing. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071858
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Lower 48 on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A broad swath of west to northwesterly flow will overspread the CONUS on Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it spreads east from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. A prior cold front passage offshore into the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a dry and stable airmass. This will preclude thunderstorm potential despite a deepening surface low and cold front spreading across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity.
..Leitman.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, December 10 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, December 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, December 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 9
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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