Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, August 24

Tuesday, August 25

Wednesday, August 26

Thursday, August 27

Friday, August 28

Saturday, August 29

Sunday, August 30

Monday, August 31

Outlook for Monday, August 24

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other severe thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST…CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST…AND COASTAL CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other severe thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Carolinas.

Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. Residual/ongoing convection this morning and lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors for thunderstorm development and evolution later today.

Even so, widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon or early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern ND. Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from south-central Canada. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells initially with a large hail threat. The development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually occur this evening, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in the vicinity of the surface front. Strengthening and sufficient veering of winds with height through mid levels should support initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of these southeastward-moving thunderstorms. Scattered severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity through mid/late evening across the central High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual weakening.

Coastal Carolinas

The Carolinas will be influenced by modestly enhanced cyclonic flow aloft today, with a moist and moderately to strongly unstable environment forecast along the coastal plain to the east of a slow-moving front. This favorable instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should support initial supercells with some hail risk this afternoon. However, scattered damaging winds will probably become the primary concern as thunderstorms increase in coverage. Severe potential should tend to wane by early evening as convection moves offshore and/or weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast

Widely scattered elevated convection has developed this morning from southeast KS into AR in a low-level warm advection regime. This convection will shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming surface based into the afternoon as diurnal heating supports downstream destabilization of a rather moist low-level airmass. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, an upscale-growing/forward-propagating cluster may evolve during the afternoon, with scattered damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss south-southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast.

Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies

Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a very well-mixed boundary layer. Since this convection will develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is possible even though low-level moisture and related instability should remain weak. Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

Maine

Across northern ME, partially clearing skies this afternoon should encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s, resulting in weak instability (up to 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, a southerly mid/upper-level jet will overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained could become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 25

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Upper Midwest

A mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with an associated surface low and cold front moving across Minnesota and eventually into Wisconsin. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this cold front will result in weak to moderate instability by mid-afternoon. Storm organization may be somewhat lacking during the afternoon, but as the mid-level jet streak overspreads the warm sector during the evening, a more favorable environment is expected across northwest Wisconsin and vicinity. Within this zone, a few supercells may occur during the evening with a greater severe weather threat. However, the limited temporal and spatial scale, and some concerns about storm coverage during this timeframe, preclude Slight Risk issuance at this time.

Central Plains

Moderate to strong instability is forecast within a northwesterly flow pattern across the central Plains. Weak height falls and strong heating should result in scattered storm coverage across most of the High Plains by the mid to late afternoon. 00Z guidance has trended toward a stronger convective signal and greater instability across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Have shifted the Day 3 Slight Risk area accordingly. While storms remain likely across much of this region, the more organized severe threat will likely be near the greatest instability.

Southeast

Moderate to strong heating is expected amid a very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) from the Gulf Coast to the GA/SC coast. Within this zone, strong to isolated severe storms capable of water-loaded downdrafts and some damaging wind potential are expected.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 26

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Midwest into the Great Lakes

A mid-level shortwave trough will advance through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the period with thunderstorms developing along it by mid-afternoon. Upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints will result in moderate instability. Multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells will be possible along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and into the evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. However, some low-level wind shear could result in a localized tornado threat with any supercells which develop.

Central High Plains

A weakening of the mid-level ridge will support scattered storm development within a weak upslope flow regime across eastern Colorado on Wednesday. These storms will form on the southwestern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow traversing the northeastern portion of the upper-level ridge. This may result in sufficient shear for a few south-southeasterly moving supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley

A weak surface low will drift slowly southeastward along a frontal boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday. Strong heating is expected with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This deeply-mixed and uncapped airmass will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft is relatively weak (~20 knots). This will likely result in mostly unorganized storms with a few multicell clusters. Despite the relatively weak shear, the strong heating will support some damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, August 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.

D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains

Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.

D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains

Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.

D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains

Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.

D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains

Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.

D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains

Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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