Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150553
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…MIDWEST…AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A migratory upper-level wave is evident in water-vapor imagery over northern Mexico. This feature will lift northeastward into the Plains through the day, resulting in the eastward progression of a modest surface cyclone from the central High Plains into eastern NE by late afternoon. A broad, uncapped, and moderately sheared warm sector will be in place from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and eastward into the Great Lakes/OH Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across much of this warm sector, whether induced by ascent ahead of the primary upper wave or by localized mesoscale boundaries.
Iowa and northern Missouri
Thunderstorm development appears likely by late afternoon from central IA into northern MO in the vicinity of the surface low. Stronger mid-level height falls compared to previous days lends higher confidence in thunderstorm development, and 50-60 knot 500 mb flow overspreading much of the warm sector will support organized convection, including the potential for splitting supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes across IA and northern MO. A focused zone of higher tornado potential may emerge roughly along the I-80 corridor where backed low-level winds along the effective warm front will locally augment SRH and could support a strong tornado. HREF/REFS guidance both show the strongest UH signals across this zone, warranting higher (5%) tornado probabilities.
Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas
Further south, initially discrete cells are anticipated along the dryline from southeast KS into OK and north TX by mid-afternoon. Despite somewhat higher confidence in storm development compared to previous days, mean flow vectors along the boundary may promote clustering and upscale growth within a few hours after initiation. This scenario appears to be reflected in recent HREF/REFS guidance in the form of numerous, but weak, UH streaks, as well as in deterministic CAM solutions that depict one or more convective bands emerging by early evening. Additionally, guidance hints at the potential for morning convection across parts of OK and the Ozark Plateau. It remains unclear what influence - if any- this activity will have on the southern Plains warm sector or if any outflow boundaries can emerge and focus a higher severe threat along mesoscale corridors. Given these uncertainties, all severe probabilities were expanded to account for the fairly wide envelope of potential outcomes, most of which will likely feature the potential for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes.
Great Lakes into New England
The combination of low to mid-60s dewpoints and the eastward advection of an EML will support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg across much of the Great Lakes region with gradually diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent towards the New England coast. Aloft, 40-50 knot westerly mid-level winds will remain in place within the crest of a modest ridge, establishing a zonal corridor of a buoyant and moderately sheared environment. It appears likely that multiple outflow boundaries and/or mid-level perturbations associated with upstream MCSs across MI, AR, and IA will likely reside within the warm sector by peak heating. Thunderstorm development along or in the vicinity of these features will support multiple corridors of strong to severe convection. This scenario is depicted by most recent CAMs, which show multiple convection bands traversing the warm sector through early evening. However, exactly where these bands will become established (and where corridors of higher severe potential will emerge) remains uncertain given variance in recent guidance.
..Moore/Wendt.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150516
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England. This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.
New York vicinity
Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime. Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of 30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at 500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.
Mid-South and Ohio Valley
Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS…MISSOURI…IOWA…AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity on Friday and Friday night. All severe hazards will be possible.
Southern Plains to MS Valley
A robust upper trough will eject eastward from the northern High Plains and central Rockies to the Upper Midwest and central Plains on Friday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Flow at 850-700 mb around 40-60 kt will be common. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN to a low over eastern NE Friday morning. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest from the NE low into central KS, northwest OK and western TX. A warm front initially arcing across central IA into south-central IL will lift northward through the period ahead of the eastward-advancing surface low tracking across northern IA/southern MN into WI. A warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place across the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by midday, with a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints extending north into portions of eastern MN and WI. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km) will overspread this moist boundary layer, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization.
As strong ascent overspreads the aforementioned surface boundaries by mid afternoon, widespread thunderstorm development is expected. While initial supercells are possible given a favorable thermodynamic environment and supercell vertical wind profiles, linear forcing along the front combined with strong deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the initiating boundary may result in rapid upscale development into a QLCS, particularly from northeast KS/northwest MO into IA. A well-organized line of convection will pose a damaging wind risk along with possible QLCS tornadoes as convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening. If any discrete supercells develop, an all-hazards risk will also accompany that activity.
Further south across southern KS into OK, supercell development may be more probable, at least initially. Convection will initially develop along the dryline prior to the cold front overtaking this boundary later in the evening. Any supercells that develop and can maintain discrete characteristics will pose a risk for very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds. With time, the cold front will overtake the dryline during the evening and move southeast overnight. Linear convection is expected along the front, posing a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk during the nighttime hours.
Capping, weakening large-scale ascent and more modest vertical shear with southern extent may limit storm potential along the dryline in western/west-central TX.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Sunday, April 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley
An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.
Days 5-6/Sun-Mon
Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, April 15
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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