Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S. today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170443
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the U.S. today through tonight.
Discussion
Models indicate that blocking within the large-scale pattern will remain prominent through this period. This includes one notable mid-level high, which may build further while slowly beginning to shift inland of the southern California coast, into the Southwest. As this occurs, large-scale ridging likely will be maintained across the offshore mid-latitude Pacific through the Rockies, with at least some expansion eastward across the Great Plains.
It appears that another mid-level high may attempt to form downstream, within initially amplified large-scale ridging across the western mid-latitude Atlantic, as a couple of significant short wave perturbations emerge from lingering larger-scale troughing initially across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard. Both of the waves are forecast to rapidly accelerate within strong southwesterly flow into the northern mid-latitude Atlantic.
As this occurs, a broad, deep and occluding surface cyclone is forecast to migrate northeast of the eastern Canadian provinces, with the trailing cold front advancing away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while slowing/stalling across the Bahamas into Caribbean. The center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from near the northwestern Gulf coast into the Mid Atlantic vicinity today through tonight, but models indicate that surface ridging will be maintained to the southwest, across much of the Great Basin.
In association with this regime, dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity today through tonight.
..Kerr.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170432
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
Synopsis
A large upper trough will exist over the eastern states, with an upper high prominently situated over the Southwest. High pressure will cover most of the CONUS, with dry offshore flow from the East Coast into the Gulf of America. As such, the pattern will offer little potential for destabilization or thunderstorms. However, relative moisture from the Bahamas into the FL Straits may support a few weak oceanic thunderstorms, most likely just off the FL Peninsula.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170448
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.
Synopsis
The weather pattern will not change much from Wednesday into Thursday, with prominent upper high over the Southwest, northwest flow across the central states, and large-scale troughing just off the East Coast. High pressure from the East into the Gulf of America will preclude any moisture return, with a decided lack of instability over land.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
..Jewell.. 03/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, March 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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