Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061945

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and southern Iowa.

20z Update

No categorical changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook.

A corridor of more favorable tornado potential is possible this evening near the interface of the surface low and warm front across far southeastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. Here, within the warm sector cells may develop ahead of the cold front within an region of enhanced low-level shear (given the placement of the warm front and forecast increase in south-southwesterly low-level jet). There are some complicating factors, such as ongoing cloud cover and convection in the warm air advection regime this morning. Some sheltered heating is ongoing with breaks in the cloud cover, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg nosing in from the west. The 18z soundings from Lamont, OK and Topeka, KS show this trend in instability as well as enlarged/curved hodographs and strong 50 kt flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict further enlargement of low-level hodographs this evening, amid steep lapse rates and dew points in the low to mid 60s, and STP values around 2. Given the favorable parameter space, tornado probabilities were increased with this outlook.

Otherwise, the Enhanced remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/

Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes

Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level jet.

Southern Plains and Ozarks

Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more likely to its east potentially related to differential heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.

Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the period.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061726

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN TX TO MS AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.

Synopsis

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to QC. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low across the Lower MO Valley to central TX at 12Z Saturday. This front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest, while the TX portion slows its southern progression through early Sunday.

OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes

At least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the Mid-South to the central Great Lakes. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface cyclone into ON/QC will support upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints advecting towards western PA/southwest NY. Cloudiness in vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop from the Cumberland Plateau into a portion of the Upper OH Valley. This should support weak to modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during the afternoon. Most guidance signals an uptick in convective intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the stronger instability by early afternoon. Sufficient low-level speed shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. Scattered damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the main hazard. A tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail may occur in deeper updrafts.

TX to the Deep South

Extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front at 12Z Saturday from the Mid-South to the TX Big Country. The western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an initial severe hail threat. Linear convection will be most predominant from the Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South, sagging east-southeast across the Lower MS to TN Valleys, as it expands in coverage with downstream diurnal destabilization. Low-level shear will be strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. A brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated severe hail. Linear clusters will probably persist into the evening, but shrink in areal extent on Saturday night, with a diminishing severe threat towards the central Gulf Coast.

Over central to southern TX, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the Rio Grande, should support a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist sector. Transient supercells are expected as the composite front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the evening. Large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary hazards. A more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a meso-beta corridor of south TX/Brush Country vicinity, capable of very large hail. This may warrant a level 3-ENH with a CIG2 delineation in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061914

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEAST VA

### SUMMARY

Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.

Synopsis

A lead shortwave impulse will quickly progress east from the Saint Lawrence Valley, as a backside shortwave trough rapidly moves from the Upper Great Lakes across New England by Sunday night. Surface front trailing southwest from the lead impulse will push off the coastal Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon, with frontolysis occurring over the Southeast during the evening/night.

Carolinas and southeast VA

The northern extent of the surface-based warm sector should overlap the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies atop the trailing cold front. Guidance consensus suggests weak buoyancy should develop by midday/early afternoon across the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont. Both the 12Z NAM and ECMWF depict modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may be present near the mid-level jetlet across VA. Bulk of guidance indicates isolated to scattered storm development off the Piedmont to coastal plain through the afternoon into early evening, before convergence along the front wanes. While low-level shear should be weak, favorable mid to upper-level speed shear could support a few cells with transient mid-level rotation. Isolated severe storms with marginal hail/wind magnitudes seem plausible. This scenario is supported by at least 5 percent total severe probs in the 12Z SPC-GEFS, along with the 00Z NSSL-GEFS and both NCAR-ECENS ML products.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 6

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, March 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, March 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, March 11

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, March 13

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game