Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 19
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight.
Synopsis
A deep upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Southwest later today into tonight. Downstream of this system, weak lee troughing will become established across the southern/central High Plains. A surface boundary initially draped from north TX into the ArkLaTex will move northward as a warm front, with rich boundary-layer moisture spreading into parts of southern/central OK/AR during the afternoon and evening.
Southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks
A broad region of at least isolated severe potential remains evident across the southern Plains. Within this region, one or more areas of locally greater hail potential may evolve, but confidence in the details is low at this time.
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F will result in moderate destabilization along/south of the warm front by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears rather nebulous into early evening, but isolated storm development cannot be ruled out by late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Storm coverage will increase through the evening into late tonight from southwest into northwest TX and southern OK, as ascent related to the approaching trough begins to overspread the region.
Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least occasional storm organization, with isolated supercells possible. Hail is expected to be the most common hazard, though isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur. Regarding tornado potential, a secondary low-level moisture surge (with dewpoints approaching 70 F) could result in a brief tornado threat with any evening supercells across southwest TX. Elsewhere, a nonzero tornado threat could also evolve with any persistent supercells near the warm front, but this scenario remains uncertain due to generally modest low-level flow/shear.
A separate area of primarily elevated storm development will be possible late tonight from southeast KS/northeast OK into central/southern MO. MUCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this regime.
Southeast AZ into southwest NM
Widespread convection is expected later today from southeast AZ into southwest/south-central NM, in response to the eastward-moving upper trough/low. Buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited heating, which may tend to suppress the organized severe threat, but strong deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but stronger heating/destabilization than currently expected could result in some severe potential.
..Dean/Moore.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190617
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.
Southern Plains
An upper trough oriented from the Great Basin into northwest Mexico will pivot east/northeast into the southern Plains on Thursday. As the shortwave trough ejects across the Plains, deamplification of this system is forecast. Nevertheless, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the OK/TX into the Ozark Plateau, with forecast guidance indicating 30-50 kt 850-700 mb flow, increasing to 60-70 kt at 500 mb.
Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overlap a moist boundary layer from central into eastern TX/OK and eastward into the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the southern Plains early Thursday in a persistent warm advection regime ahead of the ejecting trough. By evening, a Pacific front is forecast to move across western TX, becoming oriented from western OK into central TX by 12z Friday.
Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be remarkable given the deamplifying upper trough, and deep-layer flow will remain veered. This is likely to support training convection through the day and into the evening, casting doubt on how much destabilization can occur due to muted heating and limited lapse rates. Furthermore, forecast soundings continue to indicate warm midlevels, further influencing a sub-par thermodynamic environment. The best overlap of warmer boundary layer temperatures, deep Gulf moisture, and stronger vertical shear may exist during the late afternoon and evening across parts of central TX, but this remains highly uncertain. A marginal (level 1 of 5) risk may become necessary in subsequent outlooks, but large uncertainty precludes probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, November 21
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190801
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.
Texas Coast to the Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity
A shortwave upper trough will develop east from the southern Plains to the central Appalachians vicinity on Friday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow associated with this feature will overspread the Mid-South and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across east TX and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. Forecast guidance varies with the progression of the front, but the expectation is for the boundary to extend from the central Appalachians west/southwest to the TX coast by Saturday morning.
Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across east TX along the cold front, and across portions of the Mid-South vicinity within a warm advection regime. While boundary layer moisture will be greater than normal for this time of year, boundary-parallel flow will likely result in training convection, limiting stronger destabilization. Furthermore, widespread cloudiness, poor lapse rates and areas of precipitation downstream from the surface boundary will further limit destabilization. While a couple of strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, overall severe potential appears limited. A strong storm or two also could occur across southeast TX near the cold front, but weak large-scale ascent, modest vertical shear, and warm midlevel temperatures should temper severe potential.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190906 SPC AC 190906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture. However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping. Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190906 SPC AC 190906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture. However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping. Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190906 SPC AC 190906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture. However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping. Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190906 SPC AC 190906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture. However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping. Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190906 SPC AC 190906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture. However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping. Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, November 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, November 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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