Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas this afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern and central Plains today into tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051254
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas this afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern and central Plains today into tonight.
Ohio Valley into the Carolinas
An MCS continues to progress southeastward towards the central Appalachians this morning. The outflow has surged well ahead of the deep convection along the western edge of this MCS, but remains much closer to the two primary cores of deep convection along the central and eastern portions of the MCS. General expectation is for this MCS to continue southeastward across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic, while the westward-progressing outflow stalls and loses definition.
Currently, the airmass downstream across the Mid-Atlantic is characterized by dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s across northern VA into the mid 70s across southeast NC/eastern SC. Strong heating is anticipated across much of this region today, with high temperatures ranging from the low 90s over northern to the upper 90s/low 100s across central/eastern SC. These warm and moist surface conditions will support moderate to strong afternoon buoyancy, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Reintensification and/or renewed thunderstorm development is expected as the MCS (and associated vorticity maximum) interacts with this destabilized airmass. This region will be along the southerly periphery of a belt of mid-level northwesterlies, and the resulting vertical shear could help maintain a favorable cold pool/updraft balance needed to maintenance of a progressive convective line. Guidance varies on whether one coherent convective line or a series of smaller bowing segments will develop, but either case would yield a threat for damaging gusts. Highest probability for damaging gusts is expected across eastern NC where the best overlap between buoyancy and vertical is expected.
Additional afternoon development is expected farther west, from the middle OH Valley through Middle TN, where residual outflow will likely be present with a destabilized airmass. Weak shear should limit storm organization but isolated damaging gusts are possible.
Northern and Central Plains
Elevated thunderstorms have persisted throughout much of the night from northeast NE across eastern SD. A second area of thunderstorm activity exists farther norther across north-central ND. An isolated instance of hail is possible over both of these regions for the next few hours before thunderstorm intensity wanes in response to the cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet.
Despite rising heights throughout the day, most guidance suggests that low-level convergence along both the lee trough and outflow-modified front in NE will be sufficient for convective initiation this afternoon. Limited vertical shear and a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest an outflow-dominant storm mode with the primary hazard being widely-spaced severe wind gusts.
Relatively higher thunderstorm coverage is possible across the central High Plains this evening as warm-air advection supports additional thunderstorm activity. Some clustering of this activity is possible, but vertical shear will be weak and overall storm intensity and organization should be modest.
Western Montana
A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will extend across the region, to the east of an upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing mid-level moisture and forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance is expected to support an increase in high-based showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Lapse rates will be steep with strong deep-layer shear, but the absence of appreciable moisture will limit MLCAPE to generally less than 250 J/kg. As such the potential for severe wind gusts is currently too low to warrant 5% wind probabilities.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050512
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
### SUMMARY
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of Montana into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.
MT into the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley
The upper ridge centered over the Plains on Sunday will begin to weaken and shift east as a western upper shortwave trough develops eastward toward the northern Rockies. As this occurs, several shortwave impulses will migrate through the top of the ridge over the northern Plains and Mid-MO Valley. Southwesterly deep-layer flow also will increase later in the period across MT and the High Plains with the approaching of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will be in place across eastern MT and the western Dakotas, with a surface trough extending southward through the central High Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across northern ND, while a quasi-stationary front extends northwest to southeast across South Dakota into the MO-Valley. A moist airmass will reside along these boundaries, and areas of moderate to strong instability are forecast.
Most guidance depicts early day convection ongoing across parts of MN and eastern SD. While evolution of this convection is uncertain, it seems possible that it could persist and/or strengthen as it shifts southwest across the Mid-MO Valley through afternoon. Additional convection is expected to develop along the surface trough over the High Plains, near the surface warm front, surface low, and later in the evening across much of Montana with the approach of the upper trough. Pockets of damaging winds and hail will be possible. If confidence increases in areas of greater storm coverage, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.
Southern States
A weak low is expected to develop southward across GA as a surface front sags southward through the period. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place, fostering areas of moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer flow will remain light and vertical shear weak, limiting organized severe potential. However, given strong instability, high PWs, frontal forcing, and sufficient storm coverage/clustering, isolated to scattered strong/damaging wind gusts are expected.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 050637
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.
Nebraska into the Dakotas and Minnesota
An upper shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the Intermountain West to the northern Plains on Monday. Strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of the trough. At the surface, a low over eastern MT will develop northeast into the Canadian Prairies, and a trailing cold front will push east across portions of NE/SD/ND. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, promoting areas of moderate instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, and strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow, will generate effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt, supporting organized thunderstorms. While cooling aloft will result in modestly steep lapse rates, warmer temperatures may linger around 850 mb, leading to capping concerns. Nevertheless, even elevated storms will pose a risk for hail, and depending on storm mode, strong wind gusts.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050744 SPC AC 050744
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Tue-Thu – Central Plains to Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and northeast through Thursday. An associated surface low will mainly remain over Canada, but a trailing cold front will sweep across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday, before continuing south and east into Kansas and across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. By Thursday, the boundary is expected to continue south and east across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain focused near and north of the international border. Furthermore, the corridor of deeper boundary layer moisture may be somewhat limited, especially Tuesday into Wednesday, due to a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the Midwest. Nevertheless, enhanced deep-layer flow, and corridors of at least modest instability along the cold front could support some severe risk. However, confidence in 15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time frame.
Days 7-8/Fri-Sat – Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
At the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest and into the Plains. Another, perhaps stronger, cold front could sweep across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Depending on moisture return in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage, some severe risk could develop during the weekend. Furthermore, large spread exists among various guidance regarding the evolution of the this upper trough, resulting in uncertainty in greater corridors of severe potential.
..Leitman.. 09/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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