Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, June 15

Tuesday, June 16

Wednesday, June 17

Thursday, June 18

Friday, June 19

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151611

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.

Southern High Plains

Northwesterly flow aloft will support a sharpening lee trough across the southern High Plains today, with lee cyclogenesis yielding a surface low over southeast CO by the late afternoon. Mass response to the deepening lee trough and developing surface low will result in moist low-level southeasterly/southerly flow across much of the southern High Plains. This moistening will help offset mixing via diurnal heating, keeping dewpoints in the 50s through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place as well, with the combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is initially expected over the high terrain of south-central CO and central NM during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer westerly flow will take these storms into the lower elevations of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Moderate buoyancy combined with 30 to 40 kt of effective shear will support the potential for a few supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts within any forward-propagating clusters during the late afternoon and evening.

Dakotas/Minnesota

Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough dropping southeastward into the northern Plains within the western periphery of a broad upper trough that extends over much of the central and eastern CONUS. Surface moisture will be limited ahead of this wave, but low to mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave and cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy across the region this afternoon. This buoyancy coupled with ascent from the shortwave will result in isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Additionally, strengthening west-northwesterly flow attendant to the shortwave could yield some strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset.

Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast

A very moist airmass is in place in the vicinity of a weak frontal zone that extends from the TX Coast northeastward through the central Gulf Coast and southern GA. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across much of this region. The airmass is weakly sheared, favoring a slow-moving, disorganized storm evolution with heavy rain as the primary risk (as noted in the Day 1 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). However, a few damaging gusts from water-loaded downbursts are still possible. Overall coverage is expected to remain less than 5%.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST…THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST.

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan. Additional strong to severe storms are possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.

Synopsis

A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend from the Northwest to the northern Plains and the Midwest and to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Within this flow, a mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes. An additional, stronger shortwave trough will amplify across the northern Plains toward the end of the period. A weak surface low will move through the northern Great Lakes through the day and weaken while an associated cold front moves across the Midwest and eventually stalls toward the end of the period. A stronger surface low will develop across the northern Plains Tuesday night and will be located somewhere near eastern South Dakota by the end of the period.

Midwest to the Central Plains

Strengthening lower tropospheric flow will transport moisture northward ahead of a cold front tomorrow morning/afternoon with weak to potentially moderate instability expected. An initial line of storms will likely develop on the leading edge of the returning moisture in a more well-mixed and uncapped environment. This activity will likely stay sub-severe, but a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible given the steep low-level lapse rates and strengthening flow. The greater severe weather potential is expected along the cold front during the afternoon where upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints should be present. Cloud-cover from initial activity should limit overall instability (and a more substantial threat), but cooling temperatures aloft should provide adequate instability for strong to severe storms along the front. The strong shear across the region will support the potential for rotating updrafts capable of isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. If instability trends increase, an upgrade to Slight Risk (Level 2/5) may be necessary in later outlooks across northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.

Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest

Tuesday night, as the mid-level trough amplifies across the northern Plains, the frontal zone across the northern Plains will tighten. Instability is forecast to be relatively weak initially, but strong forcing from dCVA across the region, strengthening isentropic ascent due to the strengthening cyclone, and strong shear beneath the 100+ knot 300mb jet streak will provide an environment that supports isolated strong to severe storms along the frontal zone despite the weak instability.

Within this larger marginal risk region, a greater severe threat may exist shortly before 12Z across northern Iowa and vicinity. Here richer 850 moisture, advected by the strengthening low-level jet, will yield greater elevated instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE). This will provide an environment featuring moderate instability and strong shear amid strengthening isentropic ascent.

Gulf Coast

Most guidance shows a MCV developing across northern Mexico/south Texas today, which is already somewhat apparent across the region. This feature is forecast to move into the western Gulf on Tuesday. Strengthening flow associated with this MCV will overspread the Texas and Louisiana Coast tomorrow. A tropical environment will be present with weak mid-level lapse rates. However, this strengthening flow may support an isolated tornado threat from the central Texas Coast to the eastern Louisiana Coast.

..Bentley.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Summary

An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA

### SUMMARY

An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday. Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well as strong tornadoes and large hail.

Midwest

A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday. As this occurs, very strong deep-layer flow, especially for this time of year, will move across portions of the Mid-MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. A westerly 500 mb jet streak characterized by at least 70-80 kt will overspread parts of IA/MO/IL/IN in the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a 50+ kt southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet will spread across the same area during the afternoon/evening, just ahead of an east/southeast-advancing surface cold front. These strong wind fields, in conjunction with a surface low moving eastward across MN and the Upper Great Lakes, will aid in northward transport of rich boundary layer moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints). Cooling aloft will steepen midlevel lapse rates, and moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector. Overall, this pattern should support numerous severe storms. While convective evolution remains uncertain, it is likely that at least some initial supercell risk will unfold during the afternoon and early evening (particularly across MO/IL), with potential for one or more bowing MCSs developing with time. This environment will support a risk for all severe hazards, and particularly swaths of damaging winds, and strong tornadoes.

Some uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of the severe risk. Most medium range guidance indicates a lead shortwave impulse may move across IA/IL early in the day. Coupled with strong warm advection across the region, morning thunderstorm develop near/north of a warm front oriented from southeast MN into northeast IL at midday could suppress northward development of the warm front. Likewise, the southwest extent of the risk area into portions of KS/OK may be limited by capping concerns, and weaker forcing for ascent. Meanwhile, the southward extent of the severe risk across the Ohio Valley will be modulated by the stronger westerly component of mid/upper flow overnight and slow southward movement of the surface cold front. The risk area may shift some in coming days as surface boundaries and other mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 18	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150757 SPC AC 150757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday – Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

Days 5-8/Friday-Monday

A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, June 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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