Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161248

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa.

Synopsis

Large-scale upper troughing will gradually amplify over the western CONUS today, while modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow persists over the southern/central Plains. A separate mid/upper-level trough with strong westerly mid-level jet will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through the day, while remaining generally displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. At the surface, a weak low over the southern High Plains this morning should reform over the central High Plains of eastern CO by late afternoon, as large-scale ascent preceding the western CONUS upper trough gradually overspreads this region. Greater low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a convectively reinforced front from NE/IA into the southern Great Lakes region. A dryline will extend southward from this boundary across the southern/central High Plains.

Central High Plains to Iowa

High-based thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon will eventually encounter a more unstable airmass in eastern CO/western KS, as low-level moisture gradually increases in the bent back region to the north/northwest of the surface low. An increase in convective coverage and intensity is anticipated as this activity spreads eastward across the central High Plains late this afternoon and evening, aided by at least moderate instability and deep-layer shear. While some supercell potential will exist, along with a threat for large to isolated very large hail, most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster will develop and spread eastward along/near the surface boundary across southern NE/northern KS through the evening. A greater threat for severe winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph), remains apparent, as steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid in efficient downward momentum transfer within the convective cluster. A modest expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for the potential of a slightly larger cluster.

A separate area of robust convective development should also occur farther east this afternoon/evening across parts of IA and vicinity along/near the surface front. This activity will likely be aided by strengthening low-level warm advection this evening, and it may persist through much of the night. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and daytime heating all suggest that moderate to locally strong instability will likely be in place by late afternoon along/south of the front. While westerly mid-level flow should only be modestly enhanced, sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast to support supercells initially. Large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) appears possible within the first couple hours of initiation, before thunderstorm mergers/interactions occur and the overall mode becomes messy. Some increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may develop if a more organized cluster can emerge and spread east-southeastward through the evening and early overnight hours. A few tornadoes also appear possible through the evening with any sustained supercells. This potential should remain focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH.

Southern High Plains

Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from central MO into the Midwest/OH Valley. This convection is likely being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a west-southwesterly low-level jet. While instability remains fairly limited at the moment, some potential for occasional gusty winds and marginally severe hail should continue through the late morning with this activity. Greater destabilization is forecast along/south of this ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this afternoon. One or more convectively enhanced MCVs may aid robust thunderstorm development across parts of western/central KY, with a threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A brief tornado or two also appears possible. A Slight Risk has been introduced across this area where a more focused risk for damaging winds has become apparent in short-term guidance.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

NE to MN

Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud cover. Better clearing will be possible across southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska. Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

Western KS to TX Panhandles

Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Summary

Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160736

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

Synopsis

On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central Kansas.

Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska

A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4 inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.

As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.

Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the period within these regions, which may limit how much destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless, guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday afternoon and evening.

Western Oklahoma into northern Texas

Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, May 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Saturday, May 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 16

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, May 17

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

---

Your Severe Outlook

---

---

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.

• tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
• cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
• tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
• tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
• earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game