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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, September 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

wind 5%

wind severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

hail 5%

hail severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 26

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261950

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.

20z Update

The forecast remains generally on track, with only a slight southward expansion of the 5% wind probability area made with this update based on latest environmental/observational trends. As of 1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite imagery from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated thunderstorm development ongoing across the higher terrain of southwest Texas. Temperatures have generally warmed into the upper-80s to mid-90s F across much of the region, with T-Td spreads approaching 30 F in some parts of northwest Texas. Coupled with steep low-level lapse rates, this may support isolated potential for strong/damaging outflow wind gusts. with an instance of large hail also possible (primarily farther north where deep-layer shear is forecast to be marginally stronger). A lack of stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, generally weak/modest low- to mid-tropospheric flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit overall convective intensity and severe coverage, however.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 09/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

Synopsis

A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by tonight. Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is expected this afternoon. Surface heating west of the clouds and within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across western OK into northwest TX. Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the primary hazard late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA. Other isolated lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a low-level warm advection regime.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, September 27

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

wind low

wind severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

hail low

hail severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 27

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261711

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

Synopsis

A broad western trough will evolve into an upper low in central California with another weaker shortwave trough within the northern Rockies into Monday morning. A modest surface trough will extend from parts of the northern High Plains into the southern High Plains. While some low-level moisture will be maintained within the High Plains on the western flank of a surface high, overall moisture quality/depth will be limited. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover across much of these regions will limit the degree of destabilization that will occur. Capping is likely to limit storm development during the afternoon in the northeast Wyoming/Black Hills vicinity where a stronger storm would be conditionally possible otherwise. Later in the evening, a strengthening low-level jet in the northern Plains will promote scattered storm development. Mid-level lapse rates could support small hail. A weak surface low in the southern High Plains could allow isolated storms to initiate where surface heating will be greater than farther north. Weak shear should limit any organization of that activity. Overall severe potential appears low across the CONUS.

..Wendt.. 09/26/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, September 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

overview severe weather outlook for Monday, September 28

any severe low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 28

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

Synopsis

An upper low will continue to move eastward into the Lower Colorado Valley through Monday/early Tuesday. This will be separate from a stronger belt of upper-level winds across the northwestern/north-central U.S. Moisture within the Plains will be maintained by low-level southerly flow. A weak surface low is expected near the Black Hills. As this low/trough evolves through the day, a cold front will move southeastward into parts of the Dakotas. While some surface heating is possible in the vicinity of the front, increasing clouds/precipitation will generally keep surface temperatures cooler. Warmer air aloft should keep capping in place during the afternoon. Storm development is more likely after 00Z as the front begins to move southeastward and the low-level jet increases. Less than ideal diurnal timing, weak effective shear, and modest mid-level lapse rates will likely limit severe potential with this activity.

..Wendt.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, September 29 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 6 Thursday, October 1 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, October 2 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, October 3 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, September 29 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 6 Thursday, October 1 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, October 2 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, October 3 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, October  1

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, September 29 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 6 Thursday, October 1 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, October 2 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, October 3 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, October 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, October  2

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, September 29 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 6 Thursday, October 1 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, October 2 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, October 3 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, October 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, October  3

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Tuesday, September 29 potential too low
Day 5 Wednesday, September 30 predictability too low
Day 6 Thursday, October 1 predictability too low
Day 7 Friday, October 2 potential too low
Day 8 Saturday, October 3 potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 26
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 2
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 3
ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

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