Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311626
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 311630Z - 011200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Synopsis and Discussion
Downstream of weak mid-level troughing, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through tonight across parts of the lower MS Valley into the FL Panhandle and Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually advances northward across these regions. Limited overlap of sufficient instability and deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts should preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas.
Across the western CONUS, isolated convection appears possible through the period across parts of central CA into the northern Great Basin, and portions of southern/central AZ. Southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across both of these regions as upper troughing amplifies over the West Coast and as a mid/upper-level subtropical jet overspreads the Southwest. However, weak instability and modest mid-level lapse rates will likely hinder severe thunderstorm potential through early Sunday morning.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of southern Arizona into New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night, with at least isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 311730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of southern Arizona into New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night, with at least isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes possible.
Southern Rockies to southern High Plains
A midlevel trough just off the northern CA coast will progress inland to the Four Corners by early Monday. This will be preceded by the rapid northeastward ejection of a subtropical speed max now near 27 N and 128 W. A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate in the lee of the CO Rockies by Sunday night with increasing low-level mass response and northward advection of low-level moisture from TX to KS.
The lead speed max will cross southern AZ Sunday afternoon and NM Sunday night. Cloud cover and precipitation the past few days, plus an expansive swath of midlevel moisture in advance of the subtropical wave, will tend to limit lapse rates across the elevated mixed layer source region. However, unusually moist profiles will also contribute to at least weak buoyancy into the higher terrain from southern AZ into NM, and the buoyancy is unlikely to be tied very strongly to the diurnal heating cycle. As such, there will be the potential for bands of convection to accompany the ejecting speed max Sunday into Sunday night, both across AZ and especially NM. Wind profiles will be quite strong with long hodographs and weakly buoyant, moist profiles, similar to cool season severe events in the Southeast. Will expand the MRGL risk for embedded supercells and/or bowing segments capable of producing occasional severe outflow gusts and a couple of tornadoes, and a SLGT risk upgrade is a possibility in later updates across NM.
..Thompson.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Monday, November 2
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms may develop across parts of the central to southern Plains Monday from late afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts the main threat.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 310727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS…AND FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms may develop across parts of the central to southern Plains Monday from late afternoon into the evening, with damaging wind gusts the main threat.
Discussion
On Monday, a large upper trough will cross the Rockies and move into the Plains, with the upper low moving from CO into KS. A leading wave will move out of the southern High Plains and into OK/KS during the day, while the secondary and stronger wave moves eastward out of northern NM.
At the surface, low pressure will be present over the central High Plains Monday morning, and this will deepen into NE by 00Z. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, moving southward across CO and western KS during the day. Another front/dryline will extend south across central KS, western OK, and western TX through 00Z, and this boundary will push east overnight as the NM disturbance proceeds eastward.
While ample deep-layer shear and a broad fetch of 60s F dewpoints will exist over the central and southern Plains, surface heating will be limited over much of the area, and likely relegated to the dryline. Forecast soundings indicate a relatively cool but moist boundary layer east of the dryline during the day, with a minor capping inversion above 850 mb which should prevent warm sector storms away from the dryline/front.
It is therefore anticipated that the severe risk will begin near or just after 00Z over western OK and perhaps northwest TX, with increasing storm coverage through the evening as activity spreads across OK, eastern KS, and parts of northern TX. More isolated activity will also be possible along the dryline toward the Rio Grande.
Storms should initiate near the dryline/wind shift where upper 70s F temperatures are expected, reducing inhibition. Ample turning with height of the wind fields as well as up to a 50 kt low-level jet will support storm rotation, whether discrete or forming into a line. Instability will not be particularly strong, but sufficient to support wind damage, and perhaps a tornado risk between 00-06Z.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, November 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, November 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, November 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, November 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310807 SPC AC 310807
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
An amplified upper trough over the Plains will move toward the MS Valley on Tue/D4, with moderate southerly winds aloft from LA to the Upper Great Lakes. A moist air mass will exist ahead of a cold front which will move toward the lower to middle MS Valley, supporting rain and storms from the Sabine Valley during the afternoon, and into the TN Valley by Wed/D5 morning. This setup could favor isolated strong to severe storms, with locally strong wind gusts.
For Wed/D5 into Thu/D6, the system may take on more of a negative tilt, and moisture return will result in expanding precipitation across the Southeast as interacts with an antecedent surface ridge, which should minimize instability. Shear also looks to be marginal with mainly unidirectional out of the south aloft.
..Jewell.. 10/31/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, October 31
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, November 1
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 2
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, November 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, November 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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