Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of the western Dakotas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of the western Dakotas.
01z Update
Primary severe potential will be relatively short term and focused across the western Dakotas, with isolated severe hail and wind remaining possible on an isolated basis this evening. These storms are being influenced by a northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough and related belt of moderately strong flow aloft. Sufficient instability exists potentially for an additional severe storm or two, but nocturnal boundary layer influences will become more prevalent over time, with a diminishing intensity trend expected.
..Guyer.. 09/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231704
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper trough will approach the Northwest by Friday morning. The ridge within the Plains will remain in place through the period. Another trough along the East Coast will undergo modest amplification. A belt of modest mid-level southwesterly flow will exist from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Given the plume of moisture/precipitation currently within parts of these regions, surface heating/destabilization will generally be limited and mid-level lapse rates will be quite weak. While a stronger storm or two is possible along the periphery of the clouds/precipitation, organized severe weather potential will remain low.
..Wendt.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
The Northwest upper trough will progress into the northern Rockies on Friday. The upper ridge in the Plains will flatten as small-scale mid-level shortwave troughs move through the central Rockies into the Plains. The moisture plume within the Southwest will continue to stream into the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. This should lead to continued areas of cloud cover and precipitation that will shift eastward with time. Weak mid-level lapse rates and generally limited destabilization should limit the potential for organized severe storms.
..Wendt.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 30 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging over the Plains will continue to break down this weekend in favor of a more progressive upper-air pattern next week.At least one pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and Mid- to Upper-MS Valley in the Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday period.Deterministic medium-range guidance consensus depicts surface low development over the central and southern Plains in this time-frame, encouraging seasonable low-level moisture return in the process.
At the very least, moisture-driven buoyancy and subsequent scattered thunderstorm development should occur across the central and southern Plains into the Mid- to Upper MS Valley next Monday-Wednesday. However, vertical wind shear accompanying this pattern is still expected to be weak. While a localized severe threat may materialize at some point Monday-Wednesday, relevant details are too unclear to pinpoint with probabilities at this point, in agreement with the consensus of ML/AI calibrated guidance.
..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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