Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail should exist across parts of west-central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191953
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail should exist across parts of west-central Texas.
20Z Update
The primary change to the forecast was to increase wind probabilities in parts of South Texas. Convection within the Rolling Plains should continue to develop this afternoon along a slowly moving cold front. Given the moisture surge ahead of this activity, it seems plausible that cold pool development will be robust enough to support continued development southward into the overnight. Recent HRRR guidance and the ECMWF support this possibility. Elsewhere, only minor changes where made based on current observations.
..Wendt.. 05/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026/
OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes
Deep southwesterly flow is present today from southern IL into much of the OH Valley and NY. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in the region, allowing strong destabilization and steepening low-level lapse rates. The result will be a rather large zone of favorable environment for strong/damaging wind gusts this afternoon with any organized convection. Given the continued trend in morning model guidance of scattered clusters of storms in this corridor, the SLGT risk area has been maintained.
South-central TX
A warm/moist and unstable air mass will develop this afternoon across parts of west-central TX. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a cold front sagging into the region. with weak supercells structures possible. These storms will track southeastward through the late afternoon/evening with a large hail threat. Eventual upscale growth into bowing structures may extend the severe risk overnight into south-central TX.
East TX/LA/AR
Widespread overnight convection continues to build southeastward across southeast OK and western AR. This activity will persist much of the day and spread across much of AR/East TX/northern LA, in a region of relatively weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. Storms may occasionally pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds, but the overall threat appears marginal.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected Wednesday afternoon into night across portions of southwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. Large hail --potentially in excess of two inches-- will be the predominant severe-weather hazard. Isolated occurrences of severe wind and/or marginally severe hail are expected Wednesday afternoon into early evening from the Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191718
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected Wednesday afternoon into night across portions of southwest Texas into eastern New Mexico. Large hail –potentially in excess of two inches– will be the predominant severe-weather hazard. Isolated occurrences of severe wind and/or marginally severe hail are expected Wednesday afternoon into early evening from the Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude short-wave trough will move through the base of an eastern Canada trough, with a belt of strong mid/upper-level winds overspreading New England. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially near the Four Corners will weaken Wednesday while moving into confluent flow over the central High Plains. There is some model signal for a lower-latitude impulse to move through northern Mexico into NM and western TX Wednesday afternoon and evening.
In the low levels, a cold front will move south through New England and the Mid-Atlantic with the western extension of the boundary weakening through the forecast period across TX.
### Eastern New Mexico into southwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg across portions of southwest TX into the Edwards Plateau. Instability is expected to decrease with northward extent in the immediate lee of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Sangre De Cristo mountains, due to limited boundary-layer moisture content.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid/late afternoon along favored terrain, with initiation potentially being aided by the mid-level disturbance mentioned in the synopsis. A slight enhancement of the mid-level flow is forecast across the area in association with the disturbance, which will contribute to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the instability axis. As such, supercell storm modes appear likely, especially across southwest TX where the strongest instability is expected to reside. Large hail potentially in excess of 2" will be the predominant hazard with the afternoon and early evening storms. A number of the 12z models suggest that the daytime storms will grow upscale into an MCS across portions of the Permian Basin and Concho Valley into Edwards Plateau Wednesday evening into night with a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Given the above considerations, a level 2/Slight Risk has been added where confidence is highest in longer-lived supercell potential.
### Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
A hot and a moist air mass is forecast to develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg with minimal capping. Convergence along the front along with terrain influences are expected to foster a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from northern parts of the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The strongest vertical shear is expected to reside to the north of the surface warm sector, which coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should limit the potential for organized storm modes. Nonetheless, model soundings indicate the presence of 1.0-1.5 km deep, well-mixed boundary-layers, which will be supportive of locally damaging downburst winds through the afternoon into early evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also possible.
..Mead.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191907
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak initially over the northern Rockies Thursday morning will translate southeast into the central Rockies, within the base of a mid/upper-level low situated over southern Saskatchewan. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum, possibly of convective origins, is forecast to progress from the southern Plains toward the mid/lower MS and TN Valleys.
At the surface, a frontal system tied to the northern and central Rockies trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains, while a front remains quasi-stationary from NC through the TN Valley into Ozark Plateau.
### Central and Southern High Plains
In the absence of appreciable boundary-layer moisture content, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from south of I-70 in the lee of the CO Front Range to the Raton Mesa and points south. Low-level upslope flow coupled with increased forcing for ascent downstream from the approaching vorticity maximum are expected to foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along the favored terrain Thursday afternoon into evening. The presence of 30-40 kt deep-layer shear will support the potential for some storm organization with an attendant large-hail threat.
### Northern High Plains
Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is expected to occur across eastern parts of MT and WY into the western Dakotas, along the surface front, and ahead of the mid-level trough. Limited instability and vertical shear are expected to limited severe-weather potential.
..Mead.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 22 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow aloft across the dryline on D4/Friday may support potential for severe storms. Guidance shows disagreement in the location of the dryline, with some guidance depicting the dryline back in the OK/TX Panhandle and others with a further east dryline into western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings show limited inhibition by the afternoon, with strong daytime heating and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted, with moderate to strong instability ahead of the dryline. Given weak inhibition and modest mid-level flow, convective initiation is possible by the afternoon. Shear profiles are marginally sufficient to support organized storms, with a mix of multi-cell and supercell modes. A 15% area was added with this outlook where confidence is greater in convection occurring.
D5/Saturday-D8/Tuesday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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