Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161245
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND UTAH INTO FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.
Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Ohio Valley
In between upper troughing over Canada and upper ridging over the Southeast, a convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over IL/northwest IN evident on radar imagery will track eastward today across the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. While mid-level westerly winds will remain fairly modest across this region (generally 20-30 kt or less), this feature should aid additional convective development this afternoon across parts of IN into OH and vicinity as a moist low-level airmass gradually destabilizes. Poor lapse rates aloft should tend to limit overall updraft strength, but locally damaging winds may occur with any loosely organized clusters that can form and spread eastward through the early evening before weakening with the loss of daytime heating.
Most guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing late this evening (mainly after 17/03Z) over portions of IA/northern IL in a modest low-level warm advection regime. While MUCAPE will gradually increase across this region as low-level moisture streams northward, the potential for severe/damaging winds should tend to remain low since convection will remain elevated and well north of a stalled surface front. Cloud-layer shear also appears marginal to support supercells with hail potential. Given these limiting factors, have not included low severe probabilities at this time.
Southwest into the Great Basin
On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low centered over northern CA, around 35-45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across parts of the Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms across eastern UT/northwest CO are occurring in a strongly sheared but weakly unstable environment. While occasional hail could occur with the stronger cores, current expectations are for renewed thunderstorm development later this afternoon as the rather moist low-level airmass gradually destabilizes with filtered diurnal heating. If any cells/small clusters can form, they would pose an isolated threat for severe hail/gusts. But, the limited heating/instability should temper the overall severe risk.
Farther south across AZ/NM, numerous to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread northward through the period as a weak mid-level perturbation moves northward from the Baja California vicinity across the Southwest/Four Corners. Above-average low-level moisture (50s/60s surface dewpoints) is already in place over these areas, but modest lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover suggest that instability will remain weak. Nearly unidirectional/southerly flow and modest strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should foster only marginal deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. While occasional gusty winds could occur with the stronger cores that develop, the threat for severe gusts appears too limited to include any probabilities with this update.
..Gleason/Mead.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160527
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.
Discussion
Within the westerlies, which remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, models continue to indicate that consolidating large-scale mid-level troughing will dig through northern Ontario, Quebec and adjacent portions of the Northeast through this period. It appears that this may contribute to some southwestward suppression of the persistent prominent mid-level ridging initially centered near or southwest of the Mid South vicinity early Thursday. In lower levels, it appears that this will be accompanied by a developing area of surface low pressure, trailed by a reinforcing cool intrusion across the St. Lawrence Valley, upper Great Lakes and adjacent Upper Midwest. A preceding front, advancing to the south/southeast of the lower Great Lakes, may continue to overtake the Ohio Valley segment of an initial quasi-stationary frontal zone and advance through much of the Mid Atlantic and lower Ohio Valley by 12Z Friday. The quasi-stationary boundary may remain so across the lower Missouri Valley, but perhaps shift slowly northward across the central Great Plains in response to a weak short wave perturbation migrating around the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridging.
It appears that this impulse will precede a cut-off low, initially inland of the northern California coast, before redeveloping north-northeastward and elongating across the northern Intermountain region and Great Basin later Thursday through Thursday night.
Along the southeastern periphery of the mid-level ridge, another perturbation is still forecast to slowly overspread portions of south Atlantic coastal areas.
Great Plains through Ohio Valley
Guidance continues to indicate that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, focused along and south of the initial quasi-stationary frontal zone, and generally beneath the mid-level ridging, will again contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE with insolation Thursday. However, generally warm thermodynamic profiles and weak deep-layer mean flow/shear probably will continue to inhibit the risk for organized severe thunderstorm activity.
In association with a low amplitude mid-level wave emerging from the Four Corners, an increase in thunderstorm development is forecast overnight, aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on a strengthening southerly 850-700 mb jet. Focused mostly across the middle Missouri Valley, well to the north of the surface frontal zone where elevated instability is likely to remain limited, this activity is expected to remain weak with little risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains through southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley late Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS…SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA…ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ### WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains through southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley late Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
Discussion
A vigorous short wave trough in the westerlies is forecast to dig across the northern Atlantic Seaboard accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis near and east of the Canadian Maritimes. In the wake of the cyclone, it appears that a cold front will continue advancing offshore and through the southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard. A trailing low-level baroclinic zone may remain more or less quasi-stationary across the lower Ohio and lower/mid Missouri Valleys into northern high plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies in the southern mid-latitudes.
Within this regime, a mid-level trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly progress across the Intermountain West through Rockies vicinity, preceded by a more subtle perturbation crossing the middle Missouri Valley. The latter impulse, and another westward migrating wave across the Florida Peninsula vicinity may contribute to further suppression of persistent mid-level ridging, which may otherwise maintain a considerable influence across a shrinking corridor centered across the southern Great Plains through Tennessee Valley.
Central Great Plains through southern Mid Missouri Valley
Convective potential remains uncertain for Friday through Friday night. However, latest model output suggests that the mid-level perturbation overspreading the middle Missouri Valley will be accompanied by a moderate jet including 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading the central Great Plains through upper Mississippi Valley.
As insolation contributes to a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer along modestly deepening surface troughing coincident with the low-level jet axis, there may be sufficient moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing a few strong downbursts across parts of northwestern Kansas through south central Nebraska late Friday afternoon and evening.
Closer to a weak developing frontal wave near the Missouri River, roughly between Omaha and Sioux City, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along a warm frontal zone to its south may support a corridor of sizable CAPE and potential for much more vigorous thunderstorm development. Lower/mid-tropospheric inhibition might remain an issue concerning boundary-layer based thunderstorm development, but a late afternoon/early evening supercell and small upscale growing cluster do not appear out of the question, before storms become elevated while spreading southeastward through portions of central Iowa during the evening.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, September 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, September 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, September 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, September 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output suggests that modest pre-frontal surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through south central/eastern Kansas, and perhaps the slow moving frontal zone across northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa, may provide focus for scattered strong thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon into evening. This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Rockies into Great Plains, with deep boundary-layer mixing along the surface trough and higher boundary-layer moisture content along the frontal zone contributing to thermodynamic profiles potentially conducive to severe weather. However, with the belt of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric flow associated with a preceding impulse tending to weaken and/or shift eastward near or to the south of the Great Lakes region, it still appears that this potential will remain relatively isolated in coverage and/or marginal in nature.
Thereafter, late this weekend through early next week, the spread among model output concerning the mid/upper flow evolution increases. However, even among the differing solutions, there is little readily apparent that indicates an increase in organized severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, September 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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