Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 090532
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
South Texas
An upper low initially near the Big Bend region at 12z Monday is forecast to weaken through the day while a series of embedded perturbations track from the lower Rio Grande Valley along the coast. Forcing for ascent associated with those features along with persistent low/mid-level warm advection is likely to sustain scattered thunderstorms through the morning with areal coverage gradually decreasing by mid to late afternoon.
Similar to Sunday, the kinematic environment will feature veering winds with height with around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would conditionally support supercell storm modes and some severe weather threat. While a strong storm or two is possible Monday morning, it appears that outflow associated with early-day convection is likely to limit more robust air mass destabilization and an associated severe weather threat.
### Pacific Northwest
A short-wave trough is forecast to move onshore Monday afternoon with associated height falls/midlevel cooling coinciding with moist, onshore flow in the low levels. Those processes will yield weak instability (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) with forecast soundings indicating the potential for convective updrafts to reach sufficient depth for episodic lightning activity from the coast inland to at least the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening. Somewhat analogous to Saturday, strong low-level winds are forecast ahead of the surface front, suggesting some potential for a few strong wind gusts in association with any deeper convective elements moving onshore.
### South Florida
A few lightning strikes may occur with diurnally enhanced thunderstorms Monday afternoon amidst a moist and marginally unstable air mass. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm and dry nose centered in the 650-600 mb layer, which will likely inhibit the majority of convective updrafts from reaching sufficient depth for lightning discharge.
..Mead.. 11/09/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Summary
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081905
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
There appears little risk for severe thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Discussion
Latest model output continues to indicate substantive further amplification within the stronger westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific through this period. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging within the split downstream regime, across the Great Basin through western Canadian Prairies. As this occurs, it appears that several shorter wavelength perturbations to the east will dig and begin to consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across Manitoba/Ontario through the middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night. However, the larger-scale pattern east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard is likely to remain at least broadly confluent, with an embedded lower-latitude perturbation becoming increasingly sheared across central Texas through the Gulf Coast states.
In association with this evolving regime, low probabilities for thunderstorms may lingering near inverted surface troughing near, but generally offshore of, lower/middle Texas coastal areas. Otherwise, generally stable conditions are likely to prevail across most of the nation through at least 12Z Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080945 SPC AC 080945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
During the Day 4 to 8 period, a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through the large-scale trough. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm development will be possible in the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and in parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday. Further west, an upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western and central U.S. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to settle into the Gulf Coast states from Friday to Sunday, limiting thunderstorm potential across the majority of the nation.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, November 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, November 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
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