Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191254
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN AZ.
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.
Mid MO Valley
Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through western SD/NE. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing downstream of this wave across central/eastern SD and north-central/northeast NE. Recent surface analysis place a corridor of moderate low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s dewpoints) from eastern NE northwestward to a weak surface low over central SD. Instability will likely build within this corridor as the shortwave continues eastward, potential resulting increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity later this morning into the afternoon across eastern NE. Vertical shear will be strong enough for organized storm structures and the potential for a few supercells. This potential will be largely dictated by how much the airmass can destabilize amid the cloud cover and limited heating. Large hail is possible within the initially more cellular activity, but a transition to a more linear mode results in damaging gusts becoming the primary hazard with eastward/southeastward extent.
Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley
Regional radar imagery shows a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms progressing across the region. A few stronger updrafts are possible within this cluster, but limited buoyancy downstream and a weakening low-level jet are forecast to result in gradually diminishing storm strength over the next few hours. The airmass is forecast to gradually recover in the wake of this cluster, with strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg) in place by the late afternoon. The shortwave trough mentioned in the preceding paragraph is forecast to continue southeastward, and ascent attendant to this wave coupled with weak low-level convergence along the cold front will support thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass this evening. Strengthening mid-level flow will result in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of supercells. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary hazards, but a strengthening low-level jet will result in enough low-level shear to support the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Storms will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with the threat for damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line segments.
Ohio Valley
A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft support the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail and isolated damaging gusts.
Central/Southern High Plains
Surface analysis places 60s dewpoints into the Colorado Foothills this morning, increasing into the upper 60s farther east/southeast into southwest KS. Strong heating/mixing of this airmass is anticipated this afternoon, promoting the development of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain before then progressing eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be support organized storms structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothill. Thereafter, a trend towards an outflow-dominant storm mode will result in strong to severe gusts across portions of the central/southern High Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if guidance continues to indicate increased coverage.
### AZ
The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late afternoon. This should allow for storms that develop over the high terrain to maintain intensity as they process southwestward into the lower elevations this afternoon/evening. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support the potential for severe gusts.
Southeast into northern FL
A very moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) will be in place today from MS into FL. Strong heating is anticipated, with high temperatures in the upper 90s across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid modest low-level convergence from MS into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle into northern FL. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the Mid South.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190544
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…THE MID SOUTH…AND THE MID ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the Mid Atlantic, from Nebraska into Wisconsin, and over parts of the Mid South.
From NE into northwest WI
Mid to upper level northwest winds will increase across the region, with 30-40 kt at 500 mb common. At the surface, low pressure will develop into northern MN with a cold front extending southwestward across eastern SD and into northern NE by 00Z.
Although high pressure will exist east of this area, pockets of 60s dewpoints will still exist ahead of the front, and, temperatures aloft will be cool. Daytime heating will thus support destabilization along the front, with scattered storms from northeast MN/northern WI into NE. Favorable deep-layer shear around 40 kt along with the cool air aloft will support cells capable of hail. Isolated hail near 2.00" cannot be ruled out over NE, but this will depend on actual moisture return and potential for stronger than forecast instability.
Mid Atlantic
Weak low pressure is forecast to translate eastward along a front which will move into southern PA/central NJ, while another surface low develops into eastern VA/northeast NC with a increasing convergence there. Across this small warm sector, upper 60s to 70s F dewpoints will lead to a zone of moderate instability, and scattered storms should develop from southeast PA/NJ into MD, DE, and eastern VA. Additional activity may develop southwestward into northern NC. 20-30 kt mean winds above 700 mb will support clusters of cells moving southeastward during the late afternoon, with strong to locally severe wind gusts possible. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as upper level temperatures will be cool.
Mid South
A surface trough will develop from the Red River eastward across AR and into northern MS, with a weak wind shift providing a focus for storm development. CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of storms developing after 21Z over northern MS into southwest TN. The environment will be very warm and moist, with temperatures near 100 F and precipitable water values near 2.00". Shear will be weak, and storms are likely to produce strong outflow winds, possibly severe downbursts. Isolated marginal hail cannot be ruled out as temperatures aloft will be relatively cool.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Summary
Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered damaging hail and wind may occur over parts of the central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190737
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered damaging hail and wind may occur over parts of the central Plains.
Central Plains
Northwest winds aloft will increase across the central and northern Plains on Friday as a shortwave trough glances the area, and an upper ridge builds to the west. Temperatures aloft will also cool across this region, with -10 C at 500 mb pushing south to I-70 by Saturday morning.
Strong and heating and a surface trough will develop during the afternoon across the northern to central High Plains, with southeast surface winds across the Plains. Sufficient moisture should remain in place for moderate instability to develop across much of NE and surrounding areas.
While storm coverage is a bit uncertain, the conditional threat of large hail is high with elongated hodographs and deep-layer shear over 50 kt. Storms should form near the surface trough over southwest SD into northwest NE, and proceed southeastward. Swaths of damaging hail and wind are forecast.
Carolinas
A weak upper trough will affect the northeastern quarter of the CONUS, with 20 kt midlevel winds extending south into the Carolinas. A front is forecast to move south across NC, with low pressure into SC an GA. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with mid 70s F dewpoints. Daytime heating will yield strong instability, with a strong signal for convection along this boundary. Numerous storms may occur, with strong to severe outflow winds.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, August 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, August 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, August 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, August 25 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, August 26 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190828 SPC AC 190828
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 to Wed/D8 period, an upper ridge will persist from the Southern Plains into the Southwest, while various shortwave troughs affect the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The primary trough amplification will occur from the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes on Sat/D4 into the Northeast through Mon/D6, with moisture and instability supportive of strong storms generally persisting over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Shear will remain weak over the East on Sat/D4, with areas of storms producing strong gusts, perhaps marginal/isolated severe. By Sun/D5, strong winds and cooling aloft will move across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though antecedent precipitation will affect the warm sector, as will veering low-level winds. Frontal timing will depend on the upper trough speed, and overall predictability is low for Sun/D5.
To the west, daily corridors of thunderstorms are also likely over parts of the central to northern Plains, with northwest flow strongest on Sat/D4 and weakening into D5/D6. At least marginal risk/low probabilities are likely in later outlooks for isolated wind/hail.
..Jewell.. 08/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, August 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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