Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120039
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
DISCUSSION
At mid-levels, a low will move across far northern New England this evening, as northwest flow remains in place from the Appalachians northwestward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across the central and southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Over almost the entire nation, a relatively dry airmass will be in place, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development through daybreak on Friday.
..Broyles.. 12/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities.
..Leitman.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South Florida and the Keys Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111859
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South Florida and the Keys Saturday night.
Synopsis
An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday. A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However, forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely.
The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame.
..Leitman.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 16 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.
Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.
..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, December 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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