Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 4
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe wind gusts are possible across southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041948
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe wind gusts are possible across southeast Arizona during the late afternoon and evening.
20Z Update
No major changes have been made to the outlook. Initial high-terrain storm development is expected to move west-southwestward across southeast AZ from late afternoon into the evening, with a primary threat of scattered severe gusts. Other strong to locally severe storms are possible through the afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains, parts of IA/northern MO, and the southern Appalachians/western Carolinas region. Late tonight, a few strong elevated storms may develop across parts of southeast NE, IA, and northern MO. See the previous discussion below for more information.
..Dean.. 08/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026/
Southeast Arizona
A flattened mid/upper-level ridge over the Southwest will continue to feature a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level easterlies across northern Mexico into far southern portions of AZ/NM. Even with convective overturning yesterday, a seasonably moist low-level airmass across southeast AZ/southwest NM will undergo strong heating this afternoon, with up to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast per latest RAP/NAM forecast soundings. Initial widely scattered convective development over the higher terrain will gradually move westward across southeast AZ during the late afternoon and evening. A very well-mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity will support ample evaporative cooling potential with the stronger thunderstorm downdrafts. The resultant microbursts and associated outflow should yield a risk for 60-80 mph gusts as thunderstorms potentially congeal into one or more small clusters through the evening.
Eastern Nebraska into Iowa and Northern Missouri
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of NE to the north of a surface cold front extending from the southern High Plains northeastward to the Upper Midwest. Stronger mid-level flow and related large-scale ascent will tend to remain displaced to the north of the front through the period. But, there may still be some potential for a surface-based thunderstorm or two to develop along/near the front late this afternoon/early evening across IA/northern MO and vicinity in a moderately unstable airmass. While still appearing fairly conditional, isolated hail/damaging winds may occur if convection develops. Otherwise, a greater chance for additional elevated thunderstorms should exist tonight into early Wednesday morning from eastern NE into IA. This activity may also pose an isolated hail/gusty wind threat.
Raton Mesa into the Southern/Central High Plains
Although overall magnitudes will remain limited, a local maximum in instability should develop this afternoon near the Raton Mesa into southeast CO, where widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in a post-frontal low-level upslope regime. Recent high-resolution guidance continues to show this activity moving slowly southeastward into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles during the early evening. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt), marginally severe hail is possible with the stronger cores, and isolated severe gusts may occur with any loosely organized clusters that can develop.
Southern Appalachians/Western Carolinas
A closed mid-level low will remain centered over GA today. To the east/northeast of this low, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass will support the development of moderate instability over the western Carolinas into north GA and eastern TN this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across this region through 17-19Z as convective temperatures are reached. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, an isolated threat for damaging winds associated with microbursts may develop as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 5
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS…NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES…AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Missouri/Iowa/Illinois
Broad troughing over the north-central CONUS into the Great Lakes region will bring moderate to seasonably strong mid-level flow across the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys. Large-scale lift will not be overly strong, though embedded shortwave troughs may augment lift locally. Along a surface trough from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the central Plains, dewpoints of mid/upper 60s to low 70s F are expected. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be possible by the afternoon. The strongest shear will likely remain on the cool side of the surface boundary, but 30-35 kt of effective shear will be sufficient for a few organized storms. Initial cells will be capable of marginally severe hail. Clusters/linear segments will be the predominant storm modes with an associated risk of damaging winds.
New Mexico into the Panhandles
Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa will allow for storm development by late afternoon. Modest northwesterly flow aloft (around 35-40 kt of effective shear) will promote marginally organized storms. Strong/severe winds will be the main hazard given strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates.
Arizona
A moist airmass (50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will be in place during the afternoon/evening. Westerly surface winds will promote storm development within eastern portion of the Mogollon Rim. Modest easterly winds aloft should be sufficient to move activity off of the Rim into the lower deserts. Strong/severe wind gusts will be possible especially where clustering of outflow occurs.
..Wendt.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong storms may occur from the central Plains into the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
A few strong storms may occur from the central Plains into the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Northeast
A very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) are expected across much of the East along the western periphery of the Atlantic surface high. Flow aloft will be somewhat enhanced near the Great Lakes trough, primarily for the northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England. Given the rich moisture, surface heating will not have to be overly robust to promote around or above 2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Where steeper low-level lapse rates and/or clustering can occur, isolated damaging winds will be possible.
Central/Northern Plains
Predictability continues to be low within these regions. In southern Kansas, the cold font, perhaps augmented by early day precipitation/clouds, will be one area of potential storm development during the afternoon. Temperatures to the south of the stalled boundary will be quite hot and may provide enough lift for initiation. Enough mid-level flow will be present to promote storm organization, should any form. Uncertainty in development remains too high for a categorical risk area.
A secondary surface front is expected to develop from northern Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota. The ECMWF is much more aggressive with moisture return ahead of the boundary than the NAM. Furthermore, mid-level heights will likely be slowly rising through the period. A stronger storm or two would be possible, but development is still uncertain. Elevated storms are probable in northern Minnesota as the low-level jet increases, but buoyancy is expected to remain weak.
..Wendt.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80 from Nebraska eastward.
Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80 from Nebraska eastward.
Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80 from Nebraska eastward.
Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80 from Nebraska eastward.
Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80 from Nebraska eastward.
Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 5
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, August 6
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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