Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, March 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon through tonight from parts of the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060608
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS…AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS…MISSOURI…AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon through tonight from parts of the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.
Synopsis
An upper wave within a broader positive-tilt trough will eject out of CO and into the northern Plains late in the day, with a 70+ kt midlevel jet moving from NM across KS, NE, and into IA and MN late. South of this jet, height tendencies will be relatively neutral for much of the period, with falls generally from KS northward late in the day.
At the surface, a cold front will push south to a southern MN to southwest KS line by 00Z, with low pressure over southern KS/northwest OK. A dryline will extend south from the low into western OK and west-central TX at the same time. East of the dryline, dewpoints will rise firmly into the mid 60s F.
Meanwhile, a warm front will push rapidly north across IA/IL/IN during the day, reaching into southern WI and southern Lower MI by late afternoon. Above the moistening boundary layer, a broad fetch of 40-60 kt southwest winds at 850 mb will exist, aiding both theta-e advection and enhancing low-level shear over a large area.
Southern Great Plains to the Midwest
A complex forecast scenario will exist today, with multiple areas of severe potential, some highly conditional. Large-scale ascent appears to be most favorable from the surface low in KS northeastward along the cold front, and along portions of the warm front from IA eastward. Bouts of thunderstorms are probable across IA and vicinity, with both bowing structures and supercells producing wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms are expected along the warm front across parts of IL, IN, and into southern Lower MI, and while instability will be weaker, low-level shear will favor rotating storms and perhaps some tornado risk.
Another focused area of potential will be from northern TX into eastern OK, western AR and southwest MO, where increasingly deep moisture to 700 mb and daytime heating well east of the dryline may yield a zone of tornado potential. Mid 60s F dewpoints, southwest 850 mb winds to 50 kt and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 suggest any storms that form within this zone may have tornado potential.
A more conditional risk of supercells, including tornado and very large hail, will exist along the length of the dryline from south-central KS across parts of central OK and into western-north Texas. Here, models are having difficulty producing precipitation with a relatively stationary dryline and the wave passing well to the north. However, strong heating west of the dryline will occur, at least a narrow zone of isolated supercell potential will develop. Perhaps after a full days heating and toward 00Z, an isolated supercell or two will be able to form somewhere along the dryline, assuming capping remains minimal and low-level convergence is non-zero. Very large hail as well as tornadoes are conditionally possible in this scenario.
Overnight as the cold front continues southeast across northeast OK and MO, shear will remain favorable for QLCS tornadoes.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail may occur in parts of Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 060653
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail may occur in parts of Texas.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward across TX.
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity
Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.
The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs. Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.
TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys
Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after sunset across the Deep South.
Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes. However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 10 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, March 6
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, March 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, March 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 10
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, March 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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