Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa.

20z Update OH valley/Midwest

Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information.

Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley

Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front.

Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information.

Southern Plains

A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible.

..Lyons.. 05/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/

Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley

Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost supercells that persist through the early evening when a strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs considerably.

Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster, with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more of southeast NE.

A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering occurs.

Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley

With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale features will dominate the severe potential across the region today. One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO. This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.

The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk.

### Southern High Plains

Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161734

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO…PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA…SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA…AND NORTHWEST IA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind damage risk.

Synopsis

A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI.

At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon, while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA

A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon, particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs.

With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA.

With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases.

KS/OK vicinity

A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain confined.

Lower MI

Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Summary

Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161931

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…PARTS OF IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

Synopsis

An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA, where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.

Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO

Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day 2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4 inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime hours.

Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI

Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place. Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind and hail risk appears possible.

OK/TX

A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail will exist.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

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Outlook for Friday, May 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Tuesday

Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.

D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday

On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.

D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 16

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, May 17

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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