Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Summary
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing squall line across and east of the middle into lower Mississippi Valley late this afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South, with a couple of strong tornadic supercells also possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama into adjacent Georgia late tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150552
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
### SUMMARY
Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing squall line across and east of the middle into lower Mississippi Valley late this afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South, with a couple of strong tornadic supercells also possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama into adjacent Georgia late tonight.
Discussion
To the north of an expanding blocking mid-level high, centered off the southern California coast, models indicate that large-scale ridging will continue to build inland of the British Columbia/U.S. Pacific coast, through the Canadian Rockies and U.S. Intermountain West during this period. Downstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to continue amplifying southeastward across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, preceded by building ridging near and east of the Atlantic Seaboard.
Downstream of the digging short wave trough, a broad and deep cyclone has already formed to the east of the Colorado Rockies, with a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central and southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. The center of the cyclone is forecast to redevelop east-northeast into the St. Joseph MO vicinity by daybreak, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward toward lower Michigan today through tonight. It appears that the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed-layer plume will spread across the lower Missouri Valley before becoming suppressed southeastward.
In the wake of a preceding surface cyclone and associated cold frontal passage, Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow remain limited at this time. Although it should improve some, aside from a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moisture return across the southeastern Great Plains toward the lower Ohio Valley, and broader corridors across the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard, as well as across the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity by late tonight, warm sector dew points may not exceed lower/mid 50s F. This may prove a limiting factor to the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, guidance continues to indicate the development of a fairly extensive squall line along much of the length of a cold front advancing across and east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians late this afternoon through tonight.
Lower Mississippi Valley into Great Lakes
Latest model output suggests that the stronger 850 mb jet core may tend to shift ahead of the deepening surface cyclone, north of the Ohio Valley into and through the lower Great Lakes region during the afternoon. However, 40-50+ kt southerly flow may tend to trail back ahead of the cold front to the southwest, at least as far as the Mid South vicinity through late afternoon, as a narrow corridor of better boundary-layer moisture return (characterized by lower 60s F surface dew points) surges across northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, western Kentucky and Tennessee.
North-northeast and east of this vicinity, toward the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley, the narrow corridor of better pre-frontal moisture is likely to be more modest and supportive of rather modest to weak CAPE. And there is concern that deeper boundary-layer warming and mixing in the drier pre-convective environment may actually be more efficient at mixing down stronger momentum to the surface than the thunderstorm activity.
However, based on the latest forecast soundings, there does still appear potential for widespread potentially damaging wind gusts at least approaching or exceeding 50 kts, with an evolving pre-frontal squall line as it spreads across and east of the middle to lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. Gusts exceeding 65 kts, and potential for tornadoes, may tend to be confined to meso-vortices evolving along the leading edge of the convective outflow, particularly within the more moist environment across the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South.
There may also be a late afternoon into early evening window of opportunity, across this same corridor, for either initially discrete supercell development or discrete supercell development just ahead of the evolving eastward advancing line. If this occurs, there will probably be at least somewhat greater potential for strong tornadoes. However, this remains unclear, particularly given the limited breadth of the moist sector, and the tendency for it to be rather quickly overtaken by the cold front.
Eastern Gulf Coast States
Models continue to indicate a separate area of better low-level moisture return across the eastern Gulf coast, which may include surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s across the western Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and adjacent Georgia by late tonight. It appears that this will support a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Coincident with enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-45 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow overspreading the region, and in the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear, there appears potential for the evolution of longer-lived supercells which could become capable of producing strong tornadoes.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Summary
Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 60%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150607
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND
### SUMMARY
Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania.
Synopsis
A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just after warm front passage by late afternoon.
Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50 to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area. Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather event during the afternoon.
From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential. Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.
Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity
Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible.
Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during the evening.
..Jewell.. 03/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.
..Jewell.. 03/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 15
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 45%
- Monday, March 16
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 60%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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