Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, December 8
Outlook Summary
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080516
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.
South FL
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front progresses into the FL Straits.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, December 9
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080501
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Discussion
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.
One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant surface cold intrusion.
A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit inland moistening.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, December 10
Outlook Summary
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Discussion
Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, December 11 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, December 12 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, December 13 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, December 14 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, December 15 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.
It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, December 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, December 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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