Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail up to two inches and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday into Saturday night. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts may also occur over portions of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120524
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS…OZARK PLATEAU…AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail up to two inches and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday into Saturday night. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts may also occur over portions of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon.
Synopsis
A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will persist over the north-central U.S., downstream from a vigorous upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough over the lower OH and lower MS Valleys Saturday morning is forecast to weaken while progressing through the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will advance through the upper Great Lakes with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the lower MO Valley and central Plains before linking with a surface low over the southern High Plains.
### Central and Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau
Persistent capping across the pre-frontal warm sector and generally weak forcing for ascent lead to considerable uncertainty in thunderstorm evolution through the forecast period. A number of the 00Z models (both convection-allowing and parameterized) indicate areas of thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the central Plains within a zone of modest warm advection and moisture transport associated with a weakening low-level jet. One possible scenario is for the continued southeast movement of the early-day storms through eastern KS and southwest MO into portions of OK and AR by afternoon, where a hot and moderate to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) is forecast to develop. The instability combined with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear would support organized cold pool development in that scenario with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Renewed storm development appears possible from late morning into afternoon from north of the front in south-central and southeast NE to along or ahead of the front in northeast KS. Up to 40 kt of deep-layer shear will coincide with the northern extension of the stronger instability mentioned above to support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail up to two inches and damaging wind gusts.
A separate thunderstorm regime may also evolve by mid to late afternoon over the eastern OK and TX Panhandles into western OK in the vicinity of the surface low and southward-sagging front. Forecast soundings indicate a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will be supportive of a few severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Confidence in any of the above scenarios/regimes remains too low to include Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities with this forecast. A categorical upgrade is possible in subsequent Day 1 outlooks once finer-scale details become more clear.
### Upper Ohio Valley
A spatially narrow corridor of stronger heating and resultant instability (MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg) is forecast to develop during the afternoon between denser clouds and precipitation to the west, and a backdoor front/stationary boundary to the east. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon within the instability axis, aided by increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain relatively weak, deep-layer shear increasing to 30-35 kt coupled with steepening low-level lapse rates suggests the potential for some storm organization with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the surface front will boost low-level shear slightly and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out as mature storms approach the frontal zone from the west.
..Mead/Halbert.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong storms accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potential for locally damaging wind gusts may impact parts of the Northeast through upper Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120509
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong storms accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potential for locally damaging wind gusts may impact parts of the Northeast through upper Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Latest model output suggests that the initially notable mid-level low inland of the Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Sunday may be slower to devolve into an open short wave trough. However, it still is forecast to remain progressive, slowly accelerating northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies, in advance of a short wave impulse digging toward the northwestern Canadian Prairies. Within the downstream westerlies, models indicate that short wave ridging will build across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest, and adjacent portions of the southeastern Canadian Prairies through northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region into Northeast.
It appears that the primary surface cyclone associated with eastern troughing may migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by late Sunday night. However, another surface low may begin to form/consolidate near/northeast of coastal northern New England, with a trailing cold advancing southeast of the lower Great Lakes region into the northern Atlantic Seaboard through Allegheny Plateau by the end of the period. Westward through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the central Great Plains, it appears that this front may stall south of the stronger westerlies, with a cool surface high maintaining influence across much of the northern into central Great Plains until it centers shifts east of the upper Mississippi Valley late Sunday night.
Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley
In the wake of a sheared mid-level perturbation shifting across and east of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, low-level convergence and destabilization ahead of the main cold front advancing to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region remains unclear. However, both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance suggest at least widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by or shortly after peak heating Sunday, from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley. It is possible that this may coincide with sufficient strengthening of westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer to support modestly organizing thunderstorm activity with potential to produce marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before weakening Sunday evening.
North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity
Latest model output continues to exhibit substantive spread concerning convective potential across the region through this period. It now appears probable that at least a shallow relatively cool/stable boundary layer will remain entrenched as far south and west as Kansas into the northern high plains, beneath warming elevated mixed-layer air advecting north-northeast of the higher terrain. Forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching mid-level low/trough may support increasing thunderstorm development across the Dakotas Sunday night. However, based on forecast soundings, this may be rooted within/above the elevated mixed-layer, with weak CAPE limiting potential for severe hail.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120714
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.
Discussion
Downstream of weak mid/upper troughing continuing to slowly dig across the Pacific coast, models indicate that mid/upper ridging (centered across the Southeast) may become increasingly prominent across the southern Great Plains into the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic Seaboard through this period. To the north of this ridging, and in advance of a short wave impulse digging through the Canadian Prairies, a notable remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation is forecast to accelerate more rapidly east-northeast of the northern U.S. Rockies, across the international border into northwestern Ontario by late Monday night. It appears that this will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis, and considerable strengthening of south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
While an associated increase in vertical shear will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized severe weather potential, destabilization within the warm sector remains much more uncertain. There does remain a general consensus among the various model output that a northward retreating near-surface baroclinic zone may provide the primary focus for stronger convective development, generally near the southern fringe of the westerlies, from parts of eastern Nebraska northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. However, even if the maintenance of a relatively cold, stable boundary layer along this zone, as depicted in the latest NAM forecast soundings, is too extreme, it remains unclear the extent to which thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to the risk for severe weather.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 16
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 15 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 16 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, September 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, September 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, September 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120841 SPC AC 120841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
In the wake of a vigorous short wave perturbation and associated surface cyclone accelerating northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the higher latitudes, a lingering near-surface frontal zone across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains may provide a focus for occasional thunderstorm development into the middle to latter portion of next week. However, this may largely remain beneath the northern periphery of initially prominent mid/upper ridging slowly beginning to retrograde from the Southeast toward the Southwestern international border area. Forcing for ascent and destabilization may not support more than rather isolated and/or marginal severe thunderstorm potential, and even latest available AI guidance generally suggests that this limited potential will wane by late week into next weekend.
..Kerr.. 09/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 16
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, September 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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