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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, May 4
Tuesday, May 5
Wednesday, May 6
Thursday, May 7
Friday, May 8
Saturday, May 9
Sunday, May 10
Monday, May 11

Outlook for Monday, May 4

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

Synopsis

Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and associated buoyancy.

Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI

Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both along the front, which should extend through southern WI and eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL, northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas

A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040533

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…ARKANSAS…AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

Synopsis

Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across the Northeast.

Southern Plains to the Mid-South

Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially discrete cells. Any convection that can remain semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to develop southeastward.

The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be possible.

Northeast

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given 35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 040619

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible. However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 8 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 10 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, May 11 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 8 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 10 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, May 11 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, May 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 8 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 10 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, May 11 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, May 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 8 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 10 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, May 11 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, May 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Thursday, May 7 predictability too low
Day 5 Friday, May 8 potential too low
Day 6 Saturday, May 9 predictability too low
Day 7 Sunday, May 10 predictability too low
Day 8 Monday, May 11 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Monday, May 4
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 5
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 6
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, May 7
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 8
ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, May 9
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 10
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 11
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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