Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, March 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080501
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA…NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA…AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern Texas.
Carolinas into southeast Virginia
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today, with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt.
Southern TX
Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft, supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail) chances today.
..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, March 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080613
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.
ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys
A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening. In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3 km.
Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage, but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter) and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 10
Outlook Summary
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080831
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS
### SUMMARY
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.
Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity
A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Monday and Monday night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of deepening surface low pressure are forecast – one across the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK. There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features, but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on various guidance.
Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, March 10 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, March 11 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Thursday, March 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, March 13 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070834 SPC AC 070834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Tue-Wed
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches. This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential. How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather days over a broad area.
Day 6/Thu
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, March 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, March 9
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 10
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Wednesday, March 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, March 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game