Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, June 27

Sunday, June 28

Monday, June 29

Tuesday, June 30

Wednesday, July 1

Thursday, July 2

Friday, July 3

Saturday, July 4

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Summary

A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271200

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA…AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight.

Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over the Vancouver/Washington coast with a large-scale trough enveloping much of the West. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough and into parts of the northern High Plains later today coincident with the ejection of a lead disturbance into the western Dakotas. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will continue to spread northward from KS/NE to the Dakotas, east of a deep lee trough/cyclone across the central/northern High Plains. The moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies.

Morning showers and thunderstorms over parts of this region will move downstream and away from where strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon, along both the surface trough/lee cyclone near the MT/ND border and near the Big Horn Mountains. Some of the stronger initial storms will likely be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near the ND/MT border where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle. A couple of tornadoes are also possible but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster may potentially develop into a bow echo across western ND this evening. The NSSL-WRF and some recent HRRR time-lagged solutions imply this scenario but uncertainty remains due to appreciable model spread. Nonetheless, the very unstable airmass over western ND combined with a supercell to linear cluster transition in the presence of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, lends confidence in highlighting a corridor over western ND in a level 2 intensity (locally 80-100 mph gusts). More isolated supercells will also be possible farther south into western SD/NE where isolated very large hail and significant severe outflow gusts will be possible.

TN/southern KY to NC this afternoon

A series of MCVs in a corridor from south-central KS into MO and east near the WV/VA border will provide a focus for additional thunderstorm activity through the day. In areas void of morning showers/thunderstorms, a very moist boundary layer featuring lower to mid 70s F surface dewpoints will gradually heat and destabilize through the mid afternoon. Some enhancement of midlevel flow in proximity to the MCVs may aid in storm organization primarily in the form of multicellular clusters. Isolated to widely scattered wind damage will be the primary risk with this activity, but an isolated tornado may also occur in the warm advection zone with enhanced low-level hodograph curvature across TN on the southwest flank of the western MCV, though confidence in this scenario remains low.

TX Panhandle into west TX late this afternoon/evening

Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, June 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

Synopsis

The western U.S. trough will remain in place on Sunday with an amplifying upper ridge in the East. A surface low is expected to develop within the central/northern High Plains, though the location is still uncertain. A surface boundary will be present from the Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley.

Northern Plains/Upper Midwest

The forecast remains rather complex across these regions. Convection is generally expected to be ongoing during the early morning across parts of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. While this activity is not expected to be particularly strong, it may modulate the northward progression of a surface boundary. In the wake of the morning activity, at least a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to develop in central/eastern North Dakota. Nebulous mid-level ascent casts some doubt on whether storms will be able to form on an outflow boundary/surface trough. Should storms develop, they may only be surface based for a short period if at all. 50+ kt of effective shear and sufficient mid-level lapse rates will support some risk of large hail and severe winds.

During the evening/overnight, the surface low is expected to deepen somewhere in the High Plains. Storm development is possible as this occurs. Where this occurs is still uncertain, but the Nebraska Panhandle into western South Dakota are currently the most probable. If convection can develop, it will most likely be elevated in nature. The strong low-level jet would likely support some eastward progress. Damaging winds and isolated large hail could occur with this activity.

Southern Mid-Atlantic

Guidance continues to depict an MCV moving through the region. The timing and intensity of this feature has been variable in the last couple of model cycles. Overall deep-layer flow will be weak outside of the influence of the MCV. Given the moist airmass in place, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of this feature. Damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly where storms can cluster.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 29

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns.

Central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest

A shortwave trough is expected to eject into the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest. The timing and evolution of this feature varies in model guidance. The ECMWF suggests a later and a more eastward-moving wave ejection as compared to the earlier, meridional trajectory of the NAM/GFS. These differences lead to drastic differences in where convection will ultimately form. The farther north solutions show little in the way of convection as compared to the ECMWF. A very moist airmass will be in place along with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area. The amplified ridge in the East will remain in place and will suppress thunderstorm potential away from the trough/cold front. Models all suggest extreme buoyancy (4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) will develop within the warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for organized storms. Given the potential for intense storms, a broad Slight will be maintained with the caveat that convective development is somewhat conditional/uncertain.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270857 SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With large-scale features generally being weak, convective development will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low, however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 27: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 29: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.