Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the Southeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301249

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of the Southeast.

Central and Northern Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota

An amplifying shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over Wyoming this morning will continue east and then a bit southeastward through tonight toward the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest. A cold front will become more southeastward-progressive later today and tonight, intercepting a moisture-rich air mass across Kansas into Nebraska/South Dakota.

Early day scattered precipitation/cloud cover will tend to abate and/or shift away from the region later today, allowing for ample insolation near a surface trough and ahead of the front. Mid-tropospheric winds will be weak, but a few initial supercells could occur in vicinity of south-central South Dakota into central Nebraska amidst somewhat stronger effective shear. Some severe hail will be possible early in the developmental cycle, but damaging winds should be an increasing and more common concern with the expectation that storms will cluster, grow upscale, and progress southeastward this evening, aided by an increasingly strong southwesterly low-level jet.

Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate instability may develop in parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas and eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent will be weak in these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation. During the mid/late afternoon into evening, isolated to scattered storms will move east-southeastward into the lower elevations, including the possibility of storms spreading from southern Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, where a somewhat more severe-favorable environment will exist. Localized strong to severe wind gusts and hail will be possible regionally.

Southeast/Florida

A very moist air mass will persist regionally to the south of a generally west/east-oriented front. Scattered thunderstorms are already ongoing this morning particularly across northern Florida and nearby offshore waters, with additional storm development expected to the north near and just south of the front where stronger insolation/destabilization is expected. Some of the stronger storms that develop and mature will be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Summary

At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards with a conditional risk for a few tornadoes, mainly in Missouri.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300528

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards with a conditional risk for a few tornadoes, mainly in Missouri.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough from the upper Midwest into mid MO Valley Friday morning will translate into the mid MS Valley with a belt of 30-35 kt winds forecast within the western through southern periphery of that feature. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to undergo slight deepening while developing from northwest or central IA at the start of the period into southern IL by late Friday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance south/southeast into the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau.

### Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ozark Plateau

Mainly elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across portions of IA and MO within a zone of forcing for ascent ahead of the mid-level system, and warm advection and moisture transport along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Those mechanisms are likely to sustain deep convection through the morning into afternoon east of the surface low, mainly across IL. In the wake of the early-day storms and where cloud breaks can occur, daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is expected to yield a relatively narrow axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000-2500+ J/kg.

Additional surface-based storms are expected to develop by early- to mid afternoon initially near the surface low in south-central or southeast IA with subsequent southward development along or ahead of the front across MO. The 00Z CAMs suggest that the initial storm mode will be semi-discrete, which is consistent with model forecasts of 30-35 kt deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely perpendicular to the initiating boundary.

While some marginally severe hail is possible with any supercell structures, warm mid-level temperatures will contribute to considerable melting, potentially limiting that threat. Damaging wind potential may be limited by storm mode with a more substantial threat being dependent on upscale growth into clusters or a cold-pool-driven MCS. Tornado potential remains unclear as the models suggest the strongest low-level shear will remain displaced to the east of the primary instability axis. That being said, a conditional threat for a few tornadoes appears possible with: 1) storms forming near or to the south of the surface low, should modest low-level CAPE develop in the presence of locally enhanced vertical vorticity, and 2) any supercells that can form in the warm sector and move east into the stronger low-level shear forecast across eastern MO during the late afternoon into evening.

Given the above uncertainties, a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained with this forecast.

### Colorado and New Mexico

Initially northerly, post-frontal winds Friday morning are expected to switch to northeast and then east by afternoon into evening, supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along favored terrain. MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg will coincide with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, suggesting the potential for at least transient supercell structures capable of large hail. With time, storms may grow upscale into clusters with a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer enhancing the potential for locally severe wind gusts. This is especially the case across parts of eastern NM Friday evening where the merging of the terrain-induced storms and cold-frontal storms could organize a more substantial cold pool.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states, and over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300725

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states, and over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough initially from the Great Lakes into the Ozark Plateau Saturday morning is forecast to amplify over the lower OH and the lower MS Valleys through Saturday night. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is expected to develop from west-central IL to the vicinity of the IN/KY border by 12Z Sunday. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance into the lower MS and the TN Valleys.

### Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Gulf Coast states

A fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across portions of the lower OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys. A subset of that convection is likely to persist into afternoon within the pre-frontal warm sector, aided by height falls aloft, warm advection, and moisture transport along a 25-35 kt low-level jet (LLJ). On the western flank of the more persistent storms, cloud breaks may allow for stronger heating of a moist boundary layer, yielding a potentially narrow axis of moderate instability by afternoon ahead of the cold front.

Diurnally enhanced storms appear likely within the corridor of greater air mass destabilization, generally from central KY and middle TN into MS, AL, and potentially western GA. While the strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the warm sector, mainly north of the OH River, an area of stronger low-level shear may persist across portions of KY and TN, coincident with the southern extension of the LLJ. Locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the most intense storms; however, some tornado threat could materialize from portions of IN and OH into middle TN within the zone of stronger low-level shear.

### Central and eastern New Mexico

There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to progress south within the eastern periphery of the upper high on Saturday. The glancing influence of that feature will combine with the upslope flow of a moist and moderately unstable air mass to generate afternoon thunderstorms along the favored terrain. While vertical shear is not expected to be particularly strong, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300835 SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which, combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and unstable upslope regime.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300835 SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which, combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and unstable upslope regime.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300835 SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which, combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and unstable upslope regime.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300835 SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which, combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and unstable upslope regime.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Thursday, August 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300835 SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which, combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and unstable upslope regime.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 30

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Friday, July 31

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, August 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, August 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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