Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021604

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

Synopsis

An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity.

Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Summary

Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 021721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS

### SUMMARY

Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.

Synopsis

A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.

Northwest TX to eastern KS

Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 020824

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

Southern Plains/Western Ozarks

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass, pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet strengthens.

Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Monday, March 2

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, March 3

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, March 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, March 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, March 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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