Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, January 27
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
Synopsis and Discussion
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, January 28
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270624
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.
Synopsis
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday. Mid-level ridging over the Rockies and Great Basin will weaken slightly as a subtle mid-level perturbation moves inland from the eastern Pacific. However, ridging will quickly rebound with the amplified flow pattern favoring continued northwesterly flow aloft over the continent. This will reinforce a cold dry and stable air mass over much of the country. With no inland moisture return/destabilization, thunderstorm potential is negligible.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, January 29
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270831
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.
Synopsis
Broad-scale troughing will continue across the eastern half of the US as the primary upper trough moves off the East Coast into early Friday. At the same time several shortwave perturbations, emanating from southern Canada and the central Rockies respectively, will begin to converge and strengthen over the central US. In the wake of these systems, ridging will build over the West supporting continued strong northwesterly flow aloft. A cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south forcing offshore flow over the CONUS. This will again negate thunderstorm potential through the forecast period.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270950 SPC AC 270950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, January 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270950 SPC AC 270950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270950 SPC AC 270950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270950 SPC AC 270950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, January 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, January 31 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 1 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270950 SPC AC 270950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future.
..Lyons.. 01/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, January 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, January 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, January 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, February 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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