Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Summary
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 60%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 161232
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND…MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…
### SUMMARY
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.
Southeast States
An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives.
Mid Atlantic States into NY
Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present.
In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England.
..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160543
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
Synopsis
On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.
Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will prevail, with high pressure at the surface.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 160548
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.
Synopsis
On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, March 20 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, March 21 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, March 22 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, March 23 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 16
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 60%
- Tuesday, March 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, March 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, March 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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