Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110551
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys.
Synopsis
A lead short-wave trough will move through portions of the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday, ahead of a stronger upstream system and attending mid/upper-level wind maxima, which will progress through the mid-MO and mid-MS Valleys into the Mid-South/TN Valley. The net result will be a broad zone of height falls/forcing for ascent overspreading the OH and TN Valleys Wednesday afternoon into night. In the low levels, a cyclone will track from eastern IA at 12Z Wednesday through central IL and IN during the afternoon before reaching the upper OH Valley late Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance southeast through the mid-MS, much of the OH, and TN Valleys during the forecast period.
### Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley
00Z observed soundings and current surface observations indicate the presence of a partially modified continental-polar air mass in place over the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s and lowest 100-mb mean-mixing ratios of 9-10.5 g/kg. That moisture will be advected into the region on Wednesday ahead of the front and beneath a plume of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (e.g., 7-7.5 C/km), yielding a relatively narrow axis of MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon.
Divergence aloft in the exit region of the upper-level jet streak will enhance convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and trailing front, resulting in a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, initially from northern and eastern IL into IN. Subsequent storm development is anticipated by late afternoon into evening from portions of western and central KY into middle TN, though storm coverage is likely to decrease with southward extent.
The presence of 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear with a vector orientation largely perpendicular to the surface front should favor semi-discrete storm modes, which is consistent with several REFS ensemble members. The somewhat marginal CAPE-shear parameter space may limit the potential for sustained supercells, and an associated greater severe weather threat. Nonetheless, the relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates with 500-mb temperatures approaching -20 C will be supportive of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds, especially with any transient supercell structures and/or bowing line segment. A tornado is possible during the late afternoon or early evening as low-level shear strengthens. However, convective inhibition is expected to increase fairly quickly during the evening, suggesting any threat will be short-lived.
### Central and Southern Florida
A moist and moderately unstable air mass (e.g., MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) is forecast to the south of a weak west-to-east oriented surface boundary/confluence zone over the central peninsula. Aided by the glancing influence of a weak disturbance passing to the north, thunderstorms should increase in areal coverage through the afternoon, especially from the south-central peninsula toward the Atlantic Coast. The presence of 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear may foster a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or outflow winds approaching severe levels.
..Mead.. 11/11/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 12
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110641
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the morning and afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England southward to near Cape Hatteras. Additional storms may form within a moist airmass over south Florida and along the immediate coast of southern California ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, November 13
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 110827
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. Friday and Friday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states Friday into Friday night, as a shortwave mid-level ridge moves into the High Plains. Further west, an upper-level trough will move onshore into the western U.S. on Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature in parts of the Desert Southwest and near the trough along the coasts of northern California and southwest Oregon. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Friday and Friday night.
..Broyles.. 11/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 15
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, November 13 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Saturday, November 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, November 15 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, November 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, November 17 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100945 SPC AC 100945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic over the weekend, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of this second system, thunderstorms, potentially associated with an isolated severe threat, will be possible across parts of south and central Texas from Saturday into Sunday. As this trough moves eastward across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, a large-scale upper-level ridge will build northeastward across the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level low is forecast to move toward the Desert Southwest on Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from southern California into Arizona from Monday into Tuesday.
..Broyles.. 11/10/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, November 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, November 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 15
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, November 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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