Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, central Plains and Intermountain West.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150059
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…MID-ATLANTIC AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, central Plains and Intermountain West.
Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys
The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad anticyclonic flow pattern in place from the Great Plains to the Appalachians. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough appears to be located from south-central Iowa into far northwest Missouri. Ahead of this feature, surface dewpoints across far southern Iowa and northern Missouri are in the upper 70s F. The RAP currently has an east-to-west corridor of strong instability in north-central Missouri, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Along the instability gradient in northern Missouri, low-level flow will increase this evening, fueling the development of numerous thunderstorms. Some RAP forecast soundings near the instability gradient this evening have effective shear in the 25 to 30 knot range with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This should support a hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. An isolated potential for severe gusts may also develop if any of the cells can remain surface-based. The severe threat is expected to continue into the overnight period.
Mid-Atlantic
West-northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the eastern U.S. At the surface, dewpoints are in the 70s F from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger instability over eastern Virginia. Near this convection, the WSR-88D VWP at Wakefield has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots which could support a marginal severe threat for another hour or two this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible.
Central Plains
Southwesterly mid-level flow is currently in place over much of the central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from eastern Colorado into central Kansas. Surface dewpoints near the front are from the mid 60s to mid 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across eastern Colorado. RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the storms near the Colorado-Kansas state line this evening have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This will support a marginal severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Intermountain West
Water vapor imagery currently shows southwesterly mid-level flow over the Intermountain West with a subtle shortwave trough moving into the region from the southwest. Ahead of this feature, an axis of moderate instability is located from northwestern Arizona into southeast Nevada, along which the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis early this evening. RAP forecast soundings just downstream from the storms early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots along with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km suggesting a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 08/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.
Synopsis
The upper ridge is expected to broaden and expand westward on Saturday. Modest to regionally moderate flow aloft will be confined to the northern half of the CONUS. A convectively modified surface boundary from the Mid-Atlantic westward into the Midwest and central Plains will be the general focus for convection outside of MCV features moving around the upper ridge.
Midwest/Ohio Valley
An MCV is forecast to be in northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin Saturday morning. This feature will track eastward during the day. Scattered storms are expected near the MCV and along a surface boundary from the southern Great Lakes region into the central Appalachians. Early morning precipitation and cloud cover associated with the MCV is may limit surface heating, but the very moist airmass will not need much heating to destabilize. Damaging winds will be the main threat with a tornado or two possible, particularly near the MCV. Storms may only be organized for short periods given weak lapse rates and shear concentrated in the lower half of the troposphere.
Central High Plains into the Missouri Valley
Another MCV is expected to track eastward through the central Plains into Iowa/Missouri. Given the impacts of the preceding MCV on Friday, it is not clear how much destabilization, and therefore storm coverage will occur. Should afternoon storms develop, the strongest activity will likely be on the southern flank of the MCV from northeast Kansas into northern Missouri. Later in the evening, additional storms are possible along the cold front.
Farther west, flow aloft in the central Rockies will become more westerly. At the surface, continued moist upslope flow will promote scattered to numerous storms by afternoon. Cloud cover may keep temperatures somewhat cool, but steep lapse rates aloft and around 35-40 kt of effective shear near the terrain will support transient supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm/outflow interaction is likely with a few clusters propagating eastward with time.
Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont
Strong heating of at least low 70s F dewpoints will promote strong instability by the afternoon. Flow aloft will be weak to modest from the northwest. Though storms may not be very organized, scattered convection within the terrain may move east/southeast with time. One or more clusters may develop leading to localized corridors of wind damage potential.
Central/Northern Minnesota
A cold front will be the focus for potential isolated storm development. Mid-level forcing for ascent will be quite weak and thermodynamic profiles will be marginal. Should storms develop, isolated strong outflow winds would be possible. Severe potential remains too limited for probabilities.
Northeast Oregon into central Idaho
With a subtle shortwave trough moving through during the afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to develop within the Blue Mountains and move northeastward. Modest buoyancy and effective shear will promote a couple of stronger storms. Small hail and gusty outflow winds may occur, but severe potential appears limited.
..Wendt.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141938
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Mid-Atlantic
Embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough will promote the development of a surface trough/modest low within the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. This trough is expected to extend southward into the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. Some convection will be possible in the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday morning. Outflow/differential heating from this activity will combine with the surface trough to promote scattered storm development during the afternoon. Mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures reaching the 90s F in some locations will lead to moderate/strong destabilization during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow should support at least modestly organized storms which could eventually evolve into one or more clusters. Wind damage will be possible with this activity.
Central High Plains
A surface high behind a cold front will keep easterly surface winds into the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Low-level moisture may be a touch higher than previous days (perhaps low 60s F) along with warmer surface temperatures. Effective shear from the Front Range into southeast Wyoming will be 35-40 kt with long hodographs. Given the potential for a few supercells during the afternoon, severe probabilities have been increased in the area with greatest confidence for large hail/severe winds.
Midwest/Ohio Valley
Thunderstorm development is probable along parts of southward-moving cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Even with only weak/modest shear parallel to the front, a southward propagating cluster or two may develop given the frontal motion. The primary uncertainty is where this will occur given lack of stronger convergence along much of the boundary. With steep low-level lapse rates south of the front along with moderate to strong instability, damaging winds would be possible with these storms.
..Wendt.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, August 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, August 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, August 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140754 SPC AC 140754
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Mon
A cold front is forecast to extend from the Lower OH/TN Valleys toward the southern Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Some severe risk could develop ahead of the boundary as it impinges on a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, vertical shear is expected to remain modest (20-30 kt 0-6 km shear). Thunderstorm clusters could pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts, especially if sufficient clustering occurs given moderate to strong downstream instability. Severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if a more organized severe risk appears more likely.
Days 5-8/Tue-Fri
Low-amplitude westerly flow aloft will strengthen some around Day 5 or 6/Tue or Wed as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast through Day 7/Thu. This could result in increase severe potential across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast as the upper troughs pivot eastward. Given a prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure across the Midwest through at least parts of Tuesday, it is uncertain how low-level moisture/thermodynamic recovery will evolve ahead of the upper feature. Depending on trends, severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 08/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Saturday, August 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, August 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, August 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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