Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130053
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
01z Update
Thunderstorm potential is diminishing quickly across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Boundary layer cooling will lead to weaker buoyancy over the next few hours and poor lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for robust deep convection. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection along the front, but only a few flashes of lightning remain with this activity.
Across the upper MS Valley, exit region of strong midlevel jet will support weak elevated convection from eastern ND across MN into western WI tonight. Warm advection and steep lapse rates should aid the potential for at least a few flashes of lightning within the stronger updrafts. Even so, thunderstorms will remain quite isolated.
..Darrow.. 03/13/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121722
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A cold front currently pushing east towards the southeastern U.S. coast will continue to migrate offshore and southward along the FL peninsula through Friday morning. This boundary will eventually stall across south FL before gradually lifting north as a very diffuse warm frontal zone. Diurnal heating of a moist and largely uncapped environment will support thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon - especially along the southwestern FL coastline where sea-breeze interactions will locally augment ascent. Very weak flow through 6 km will limit the potential for organized severe thunderstorms, though the thermodynamic profiles may support very isolated strong downburst winds.
Further north, an intense cyclone will traverse the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast through the day. Cold mid-level temperatures may support adequate instability for sporadic lightning flashes along the NY/PA border. Strong (40-50 knot winds) just above the surface may be mechanically mixed to the surface by any shallow convection that can develop, as hinted by recent HRRR solutions. However, morning guidance depicts considerable spread regarding CAPE availability that limits confidence in the overall lightning (or severe wind) potential.
..Moore.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 121914
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
Synopsis
Zonal upper-level flow over the CONUS early Saturday will give way to amplification of an upper trough late Saturday and into Sunday over the Plains. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated as a surface low deepens within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet and migrates from eastern WY into the eastern Plains. Increasing southerly winds will advect moisture northward into the southern Plains through the forecast period, but in the wake of the recent frontal passage, moisture return will likely be insufficient to overcome stout capping at the base of an expansive EML. Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible within the warm advection branch of the intensifying cyclone, but forecast soundings show poor agreement with regards to the availability of MUCAPE. Thunderstorms are most probable across south Florida and along the eastern FL, GA, and SC coasts. While displaced from the strengthening low over the Plains, southerly winds will support a weak warm advection regime within a moist, buoyant, and uncapped environment. Diffuse forcing for ascent and poor flow aloft should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms.
..Moore.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, March 15 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Monday, March 16 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, March 19 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120815 SPC AC 120815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower OH Valleys
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions. Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front, potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15 percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear. Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain. Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for portions of the region.
Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf moisture remains well offshore.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, March 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, March 13
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game