Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Summary
The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts/some hail and a brief tornado are also expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight, including portions of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301958
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts/some hail and a brief tornado are also expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight, including portions of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
20z Update
The Level 1/Marginal Risk was expanded slightly eastward across portions of southeastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas based on latest observation and HRRR/RRFS trends. Similarly, the 5% hail probability area (and the corresponding Level 1/Marginal Risk area) was expanded westward based on observed thunderstorm development across portions of northeastern New Mexico. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing severe probabilities as the forecast remains generally on track. See MCDs #2337 and #2338 as well as the discussion below for additional details.
..Chalmers/Thornton.. 09/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026/
Synopsis
Currently satellite imagery shows a deep cyclone centered over the central NM/AZ border vicinity. Recent surface analysis places the surface low associated with this system over the northwest TX Panhandle/western OK Panhandle vicinity. A broad warm sector precedes this low from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Ample low-level moisture exists within this warm sector, with low 70s dewpoints currently reaching far south-central OK and upper 60s dewpoints reaching as far north as the Omaha, Nebraska vicinity. Widespread cloud cover currently persists across much of the warm sector, with more scattered clouds in place across central and east TX.
General expectation is for the cyclone to gradually shift eastward across NM today as moderate/strong mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of this cyclone expands from the southern High Plains into the central Plains. At the same time, the attendant surface low is forecast to shift gradually northeast into central KS. Moderate low-level moisture advection will precede the low, with 70s dewpoints likely covering much of central and eastern KS by this evening. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the surface low from the southern Plains through the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear most likely in two areas within this broader region: across central and eastern KS this afternoon and evening and farther south from southwest OK/northwest TX through the TX Hill Country.
Central/Eastern KS
Cloud cover will likely persist throughout the day, with most of the airmass destabilization driven by the low-level moisture advection mentioned in the synopsis. Low 70s dewpoints are expected to cover much of central and eastern KS by the late afternoon/early evening. Even with limited heating and the tropical character to the airmass keeping lapse rates poor, the ample low-level moisture is still expected to support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon and evening. This destabilization looks to occur just ahead of the stronger forcing for ascent attendant to the dry slot progressing through the eastern periphery of the AZ/NM cyclone.
Additionally, a rather strong low-level jet (40 to 45 kt diurnally) is forecast to slowly shift northeastward across parts of central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa by evening. This will help to maintain strong wind profiles across much of the region. RAP guidance suggests 0-1 km SRH from 150 to 200 m2/s2 across central and eastern KS.
Combination of these factors will result in a rather unique mesoscale setup for tornadoes from central and eastern KS into far southeast NE. Tornadoes within these environments are typically brief, but there should be enough updraft depth in this case to support the potential for a few longer-duration storms. This potential appears to peak around 21Z to 00Z. After 00Z, the stronger forcing for ascent should begin to extend north of the surface-based buoyancy.
Southern Plains
Low 70s dewpoints will likely extend throughout the warm sector covering much of the southern Plains this afternoon. This low-level moisture will result in airmass destabilization, despite limited heating and poor lapse rates. Primary thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening along the modest surface troughing that will extend south of the surface low moving into KS. An initially supercellular mode appears possible from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the Edwards Plateau, where heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE near/above 1500 J/kg amid moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Generally front-parallel flow and increasing storm coverage will likely lead to more of a linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts appear to be the most likely hazard, though isolated hail also appears possible across southwest TX, where stronger destabilization is expected. Some increase in effective SRH is expected during the evening, which could support a localized tornado threat within the very moist environment. An isolated severe threat could persist into parts of central Texas/Oklahoma overnight, though diminishing buoyancy with time and eastward extent should result in an eventual weakening trend.
A somewhat separate and more isolated severe potential is anticipated throughout the day from central TX into central OK amid increasing coverage of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms within the warm sector. Most of these storms will likely be brief and/or weak, but the persistent low-level jet could result in a few stronger storms capable of a damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado.
South-Central High Plains
Strong forcing for ascent attendant to the NM cyclone will interact with cooling mid-level temperatures and modest low-level moisture persisting on the back side of the surface low to support moderate buoyancy amid moderate deep-layer vertical shear. A few strong to locally severe lower-topped storms capable of large hail could occur.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS…OKLAHOMA…AND TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
An upper low initially over the central and southern High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to break down into a positively tilted, open wave with a series of vorticity maxima spreading from KS and OK into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes into the central High Plains at the start of the period will advance south into the OH and mid MS Valleys, Ozark Plateau, and the southern Plains by Thursday night. That boundary will progressively overtake a north-south-oriented Pacific front, which will become quasi-stationary over the southern Plains.
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
A band of showers and thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from eastern KS and western MO into central TX within the warm-conveyor air stream preceding the weakening mid-level system. A subset of those storms is likely to continue through the day, fueled by a very moist and at least marginally unstable air mass and within the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak progressing northeast away from the region. In areas peripheral to active convection where stronger heating can occur, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon.
Based on 12Z guidance, a couple areas appear more favorable for at least isolated severe storm development during the afternoon into evening. The first is over southern KS and northern OK where an overlap of stronger deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy is expected to materialized ahead of the cold front. Multicell and transient supercell storm modes appear possible with an associated risk for locally severe wind gusts and/or marginally severe hail. AI-based guidance hints at some tornado threat; however, the southward-advancing cold front may tend to undercut surface-based storms forming along it, effectively limiting the potential.
The other area is over Deep South TX where afternoon storms will have access to a reservoir of greater instability (MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg). While vertical shear is expected to remain weak, the presence of a very moist air mass will support the potential for locally intense wet microbursts capable of severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 301919
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.
Discussion
A vigorous, polar-branch trough progressing through the Great Lakes and Northeast will become disconnected from a positively tilted, lower-latitude trough over the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes into the southern Plains Friday morning will advance south through the Mid-Atlantic and the OH and TN Valleys toward the Gulf Coast states.
A fairly expansive area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday along and ahead of the front from the OH Valley into the southern Plains. Lingering precipitation and associated cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization at many locations along the boundary into the afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates the segment of the front from southern MO and northern AR to along the OH River will coincide with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear with the vector orientation largely paralleling the boundary. As such, the risk for a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds could materialize in those areas Friday afternoon and evening given sufficient destabilization for surface-based storms. The overall severe weather threat still appears too low to warrant inclusion of Marginal-Risk probabilities.
..Mead.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 5
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, October 4 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, October 5 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, October 6 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, October 7 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.
During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, September 30
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, October 1
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 5
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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