Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, March 20
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low the rest of tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210039
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low the rest of tonight.
01z Update
Despite modest boundary-layer heating observed across the Ohio Valley this afternoon, boundary-layer moisture has struggled to return to this region. Surface dew points are only in the upper 40s to near 50F across OH/KY into western PA/WV. As a result, MUCAPE is pretty meager within only a few hundred J/kg noted across this region. 00z soundings from ILN/PIT support this with 240 J/kg at PIT and 130 J/kg at ILN. While deep-layer shear is strong, buoyancy will likely remain too meager to warrant robust updrafts this evening. Latest radar data depicts weak convection, a few flashes of lighting, just ahead of the cold front over central Ohio. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage, but aforementioned negatives suggest severe probabilities are too low to warrant a risk this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1 inch diameter Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern Tennessee into portions of North and South Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201638
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1 inch diameter Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern Tennessee into portions of North and South Carolina.
Tennessee into the Carolinas
A modest midlevel shortwave trough will migrate southeast from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast within a broader northwesterly upper flow regime on Saturday. Midlevel flow is not forecast to be overly strong with this shortwave, with around 25-35 kt noted in forecast guidance. However, vertically veering wind profiles within the lowest 2-3 km, and stronger northwesterly flow above 500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes of around 25 kt. Forecast soundings also show elongated/straight hodographs. Boundary layer moisture is forecast to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s, with some areas across the TN Valley seeing low 60s dewpoints. However, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Given modestly favorable vertical shear and instability, combined with weak large-scale ascent overspreading the region by peak heating, a low risk for severe storms producing hail to around 1 inch diameter appears possible, and a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) risk has been included with the Day 2 update.
..Leitman.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, March 22
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 201903
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Ohio Valley vicinity
Westerly mid/upper flow will amplify on Sunday as a shortwave trough deepens across the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt southwesterly jet max will overspread the Ohio Valley by late afternoon. Around midday, a cold front will extend southwest from Lakes Ontario and Erie into northern IN/central IL/MO. This front will progress southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. Boundary-layer moisture is forecast to remain somewhat modest across the warm sector ahead of the front (mid 50s to near 60 F). However, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast soundings, and model guidance depicts 500 mb temperatures around -14 to -16 C at 00z. This should support MLCAPE from 500-2000 J/kg.
While forecast wind profiles are generally unidirectional, rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, with effective shear magnitudes 40+ kt. However, the warm sector is expected to largely remain capped. Low-level frontal convergence will be the main forcing mechanism as large-scale ascent will arrive with the front or perhaps delayed behind the front during the evening. While shear profiles could support supercells, it is unclear if capping and broad ascent will limit supercell potential, especially with southwest extent into the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity. If supercells can develop and persist, large hail and damaging winds are possible. Once linear convection develops, severe/damaging wind gust will become the main hazard. Tornado potential is more uncertain given concerns regarding low-level moisture, capping, and storm mode/evolution, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
..Leitman.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, March 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.
..Broyles.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.
..Broyles.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.
..Broyles.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, March 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.
..Broyles.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, March 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, March 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, March 24 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, March 25 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, March 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, March 27 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.
Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8
Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.
..Broyles.. 03/20/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, March 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, March 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Sunday, March 22
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, March 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, March 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, March 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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