Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051200

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

NE to IA

A large upper ridge is present today across the southern U.S., with stronger westerlies over the northern tier of states. One shortwave trough is noted over SD tracking east-southeastward. This feature will provide large-scale ascent to parts of the Midwest states today, leading to scattered clusters of thunderstorms. One area of expected convective initiation will be late this afternoon along a retreating surface boundary extending from south-central NE into southern IA. Ample low-level moisture will reside in the frontal zone with dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Activity should develop around 00z along the boundary and track slowly eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear suggests a risk of supercells capable of large hail. Low-level winds are not expected to be particularly strong, limiting a more robust tornado risk. Activity will likely congeal and track eastward across southern IA/northern MO and eventually northern IL through the evening with a hail/damaging wind risk.

Northern IL to Lower MI

A large decaying MCS is moving across northern MO this morning. While this activity will likely remain non-severe through the morning, potential for re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into northern IN and southern lower MI. If sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic damaging winds.

MI/WI

A broad area of 60s dewpoints and broken cloud cover will lead to moderate CAPE values this afternoon from southern MN into much of WI. As the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches this afternoon, cooling aloft and strengthening wind fields will promote organized structures with any convection that can form. Model guidance varies considerably on the cover of storms in this area, but a conditional risk of large hail and damaging winds is present. Will maintain only MRGL risk for this area for now, but an upgrade to SLGT could be needed today if later model guidance indicates greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England, enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas. Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

### Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes, including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with the threat for a brief tornado or two.

### Northern High Plains

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours, centered along the low-level jet axis.

### Red River Valley into southwest Texas

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

### Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050735

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Synopsis

A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low pressure and associated front are expected to remain quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Northern Plains

A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture on the backside of the surface front will support air mass destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping.

Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector. Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening; however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night, especially across western and central ND.

### Mid-Atlantic

Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front. Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early evening.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050852 SPC AC 050852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Monday

Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are in generally good agreement in the progression of a lead short-wave trough into central Canada, ahead of an upstream trough evolving along the West Coast. That pattern evolution will result in rising mid-level heights across the northern and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially from the ND-MN Red River Valley into central High Plains will weaken through the day in response to falling pressures over the Rockies.

A reservoir of strong instability is forecast to the south of the decaying front across lower elevations of KS and OK into western MO. There is some model signal for early-day storms over NE to grow upscale into an MCS while moving through the Ozarks. Additional diurnally enhanced storms also appear possible across the central High Plains. The MCS scenario will be contingent on mesoscale processes not readily evident at this time, while the High Plains storms may be fairly isolated. As such, no area will be delineated.

### Day5/Tuesday

The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in the continued amplification of the mid-level trough over the western U.S., with strengthening southwest flow aloft overspreading the northern High Plains. The deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak moving from the trough base into the northern and central High Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, there is good ensemble clustering in a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High Plains, with that feature moving into the Dakotas by Wednesday morning. That cyclone will be attended by a cold or Pacific front moving out of the northern Rockies. The models suggest that ample instability will reside ahead of the surface low and frontal system, with the strengthening vertical shear contributing to the potential for an organized severe-weather episode over parts of the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.

Day6/Wednesday

The ensembles indicate the primary trough axis across the northern Intermountain Region into the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin with some indication at a lower amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains. That notion is generally supported by the deterministic models, which indicate a vorticity maximum and associated jet streak translating through the northern and central Plains, downstream from the primary trough axis. At the surface, ensemble member low pressure plots indicate the northern Plains surface low developing northeast into Manitoba with a trailing cold front pushing east through the northern and central Plains toward the upper MS Valley.

Model guidance is suggestive that strong instability will coincide with more than sufficient vertical shear for supercells, with the overall pattern indicative of a regional severe-weather event across the eastern Dakotas into MN, and potentially into the mid MO Valley.

Day 7/Thursday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate broad troughing from the Interior West into northern Plains. The deterministic solutions begin to vary more significantly in the trough configuration; however, all maintain strong mid-level flow from the central High Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, there is larger ensemble member spread in surface low position, though the general consensus suggests one cyclone in southern Manitoba or northwest Ontario and a secondary low over the central High Plains. Both lows would be connected by a southwest-to-northeast oriented boundary.

There is some model indication that the strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will remain displaced to the west/northwest of the effective warm sector. Given that uncertainty, no area will be included.

### Day8/Friday

The ensembles suggest that a low-amplitude disturbance will traverse the north-central U.S., with upstream troughing lingering across the Interior West. In contrast, a number of the deterministic models indicate a relatively deep, closed low moving through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. In the low levels, there is considerable spread in the position of any surface lows and associated frontal systems, limiting confidence in the location of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

---

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 5

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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