Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, June 19

Saturday, June 20

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Outlook for Friday, June 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191958

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin.

20z Update MN/WI

Severe potential remains evident this afternoon and evening across the upper MS Valley. Despite modest buoyancy, anomalously strong deep-layer flow and steep low-level lapse rates will promote splitting supercell structures across parts of MN and WI. This will support a risk for hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms. Have adjusted the 15% hail probabilities further north for the latest radar trends. See MCD#1200 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #355 for additional details.

NC/VA

The circulation associated with remnants of former TC Arthur have moved offshore and severe potential has decreased. Severe probabilities were removed.

Southeast

A broad area of thunderstorms is ongoing along a diffuse frontal zone from east TX across the Gulf Coast States. Occasional downbursts remain possible with stronger multicell clusters through this evening, given large buoyancy and the high PWAT air mass. Vertical shear is minimal and broader storm organization is not expected. Have adjusted the 5% wind probabilities slightly to better capture ongoing storms. No other changes were made to the outlook. See the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026/

MN/WI

A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk has been added for this scenario.

East TX into the Southeast

A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area. This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.

Eastern NC

A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.

KS/NE/CO/NM

Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are possible.

NV

A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of damaging wind gusts.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

Central Plains

With the approach of the modest shortwave trough, a lee cyclone will deepen through the afternoon near the Colorado/Kansas border. Mid 60s F dewpoints are possible in parts of the central High Plains with upper 60s F dewpoints more probable into central/eastern Kansas. Convection is expected to develop within the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming/southwest South Dakota and within the lee trough/cyclone by mid/late afternoon. Earlier thunderstorm development does appear possible within weak warm advection near the northward lifting surface boundary in central/eastern Nebraska. 40-50 kt of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote initial supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes. The degree of tornado risk is somewhat uncertain as there could be a relatively quick transition to linear modes. Discrete storms that can persist into the evening would encounter greater low-level shear as the low-level jet strengthens. A strong tornado would be possible especially near the surface boundary where surface winds will remain backed. QLCS circulations will remain possible within linear modes as well. As linear/bowing segments develop during the evening, the risk for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) will increase. The southern extent and eastern extent of the most intense activity is a bit uncertain, but some risk will remain even into the overnight on account of the very moist airmass and limited MLCIN.

Northern Utah into far southeast Idaho

Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible along the southern fringe of the upper-level trough. Strong heating and limited moisture will promote large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface. Convection will be capable of severe wind gusts.

..Wendt.. 06/19/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191933

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

Mid-Mississippi Valley

Models indicated that convection will likely be ongoing during the morning in portions of Missouri and will move into central/southern Illinois. The degree of airmass recover behind this activity is not certain. There will certainly be a corridor of greater severe potential along the trailing outflow from central Missouri into southern Illinois, but confidence in such a scenario remains low at this point. Furthermore, upper-level flow is not going to be overly strong and any supercells that can develop may struggle to maintain intensity. Even so, the potential for large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes is evident.

Central High Plains

Lingering moisture behind the weak surface front and upslope flow during the afternoon will promote thunderstorm development within eastern Colorado. A belt of stronger westerly flow will bring effective shear of around 45 kt. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs suggest potential for large to very-large (up to 2 in.) hail will be possible along with isolated severe gusts. Activity may not move very far east given increasing MLCIN farther into western Kansas.

Kansas/Oklahoma/Ozarks

Heating of a moist airmass south of the surface boundary will promote strong buoyancy (perhaps 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). As the shortwave trough continues east, the cold front will begin to move southward by the evening. The low-level jet will strengthen and provide additional lift along the boundary. A line of thunderstorms is expected to move southward. Damaging winds are the main hazard with this activity.

Middle Ohio Valley Vicinity

Convection that will move through Missouri/Illinois in the morning may continue eastward. Given the modest surface low expected to develop, some airmass destabilization is possible into Indiana/Ohio. Strong low-level wind fields would support a risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two.

..Wendt.. 06/19/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.

Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.

Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.

Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.

Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190815 SPC AC 190815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15% severe weather probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However, there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance. Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity. This will need to be monitored.

Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to aforementioned predictability challenges.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, June 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, June 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, June 21: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, June 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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