Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 23
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240057
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central Texas.
Discussion
Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected overnight.
Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall, instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas.
..Jewell.. 11/24/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday mid-afternoon into Monday night across east Texas into the Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds are anticipated.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231727
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday mid-afternoon into Monday night across east Texas into the Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds are anticipated.
Synopsis
Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a positive-tilt trough over the central to southern High Plains will move east-northeast towards the Lower OH and TN Valleys through early Tuesday. These impulses will dampen Monday night downstream of a shortwave trough digging from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains. Weak surface cyclone near the KS/OK border may decay as it tracks into the Ozarks. A warm front will advance north from south-central TX and the central Gulf Coast.
Central TX to MS
Primary change this outlook has been to shift/expand severe probabilities east/south based on latest guidance trends. Confidence remains too low for highlighting a mesoscale corridor of strong tornado potential with a level 3-ENH risk.
Elevated storms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from parts of central TX to western AR. Marginally severe hail is possible with these storms through midday. Downstream of these storms, the surface warm front will accelerate northward across east TX. Amid rich boundary-layer moisture south of the front, a plume of moderate buoyancy will become pervasive from south into most of east TX.
Primary severe potential should commence around mid-afternoon amid weak mid-level height falls and minimal inhibition. Activity should intensify/increase along the outflow from early-day convection and in confluence bands immediately downstream. Strong southwesterly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures, but convective mode will likely remain quite messy along the progressive outflow that nearly parallels the shear vector. The more semi-discrete cells just ahead and trailing southward will have the best potential to produce large hail. The tornado threat will be influenced by the degree of discrete convection that forms eastward in the warm sector through early evening where low-level hodograph curvature remains large. Nocturnal tornado and some wind threat will persist into the late evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture is maintained across the Sabine Valley and expands east through MS.
..Grams.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231915
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP SOUTH
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Synopsis
Leading shortwave impulses over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will further dampen, downstream of an amplifying shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. This latter feature will induce pronounced surface cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will sharpen/accelerate southeastward Tuesday night in the Southeast.
Deep South
A strong low-level jet over the OH to TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday will shift quickly northeast through the day. This will yield decreasing speeds and more veered profiles by afternoon in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. With convergence along the boundary likely remaining weak through most of the day, large-scale ascent for a greater than isolated severe threat appears nebulous.
A plume of moderate buoyancy should linger across LA/southern MS, potentially extending into parts of AL by afternoon, and hold at weak farther northeast. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some supercell potential, but the subsiding flow fields with respect to the diurnal heating cycle casts uncertainty on how sustained/productive storms may be. Instability will diminish after sunset, but a marginal severe threat could linger near the AL/FL/GA border area with nocturnal convection along the accelerating front.
..Grams.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, November 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 25
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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