Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 4
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041933
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.
20Z Update
The previous forecast remains largely on track. Only minor changes were made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest trends in observations and high resolution model guidance.
..Squitieri.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
IL into the southern Great Lakes
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the 21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb) will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.
Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a cold forecast to extend through southern WI and eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is the primary risk.
Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are also possible.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. Some storms may produce large hail, damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041741
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. Some storms may produce large hail, damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.
Synopsis
A weakening upper low will move from Ontario into Quebec with a leading speed max moving quickly out of the Great Lakes region. Behind this system, high pressure will move southward into the northern Rockies and Plains. The associated cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes during the day, extending southwestward across the Ozarks and into eastern OK where a surface low is forecast.
Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the southwestern states, with moderate to strong west/southwest flow aloft expanding across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Minimal height rises are forecast across this region, with the warm advection regime aiding northward transport of low-level moisture toward the Ozarks.
Northeast TX into western TN
A low pressure trough is forecast to develop generally from northern TX into eastern OK and western AR during the afternoon, with the main synoptic boundary slowing over northern AR. Models indicate early day storms are likely over southeast MO, northeast AR and into western KY and TN, dissipating by midday. This activity may reinforce the effective frontal position into AR, where air mass recovery will occur.
By late afternoon, scattered supercells are expected to form near the surface trough from AR into northeast TX. Given robust moisture with upper 60s F dewpoints, 60+ kt deep layer shear and effective SRH maximized over AR, tornadoes will also be possible. The combination of a capping inversion over much of the area, forced cells timed with peak heating, and a potential downstream outflow/enhanced zone of SRH, a strong tornado is conditionally possible.
NY into ME
Strong heating ahead of the cold front and a plume of 50s F dewpoints will lead to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the day, beneath midlevel southwesterlies over 50 kt. Storms are forecast to develop after 18Z from western into northern NY, with storms moving rapidly northeastward across VT/NH and into ME. Forecast soundings indicate 40-50 kt deep-layer mean winds, which in combination with a mixed boundary layer should support cells as well as bowing structures capable of damaging gusts. The strongest cells may contain hail as well. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given 150-200+ m2/s2 effective SRH depicted across northern areas, though veering low-level flow and/or deepening mixed layers may mitigate that potential somewhat.
..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041912
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
Synopsis
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight into the southeastern states and southern TX.
Eastern TX into the TN Valley
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.
The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.
For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally, low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated tornado or hail risk.
..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, May 5
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 6
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Thursday, May 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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