Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Summary
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible today into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large hail and a few strong tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the most prominent hazard by this evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170600
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN…FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA…EASTERN IOWA…MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI…EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS…AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
### SUMMARY
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible today into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large hail and a few strong tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the most prominent hazard by this evening.
Discussion
A couple of notable short wave perturbations have emerged from splitting larger-scale mid-level troughing now overspreading the northern Rockies and Great Basin. One, including a remnant embedded cyclonic circulation, is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward into and across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. The other is still digging into the eastern Great Basin, but forecast to turn across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies during the day, before shearing northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be preceded by several lower amplitude impulses already emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
In lower-levels, a significant cold front is already surging southward to the lee of the northern Rockies and forecast to advance across much of the remainder of the northern Great Plains by 12Z this morning. Models indicate that significant cyclogenesis may subsequently ensue northwest/north of Lake Superior toward James Bay later today through tonight. At the same time, it appears that a secondary frontal wave will migrate northeast of the mid Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Another lee cyclone may attempt to form near/north of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but probably will be overtaken by the southward surging cold front before migrating out of the high plains.
The northward advection of relatively moist low-level air is ongoing from the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley, and forecast to continue spreading northward within a pre-cold frontal plume through portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by this afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, this may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE within a corridor from the east central Great Plains through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley by this afternoon.
There is notable spread among the various model output concerning most of these developments, which may have a significant impact on the convective evolution and associated severe weather potential today through tonight. However, potential exists for widespread convective development capable of producing damaging surface gusts, large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes.
Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest vicinity
It appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls may shift from western Iowa north-northeastward through western Wisconsin by early this afternoon, accompanied by substantive boundary-layer destabilization and strengthening southerly low-level wind fields with enlarging hodographs. Based on the latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, it appears that this may contribute to a window of opportunity for discrete supercell development within an environment potentially conducive to strong tornadoes, before activity grows upscale and eventually outpaces the northeastward boundary-layer destabilization.
Central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest
Uncertainty lingers concerning how quickly the surface cold front will tend to undercut a developing corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating and destabilization, particularly across the central into southern Great Plains. However, by early this afternoon, this corridor appears likely to develop along an axis from south central Kansas toward northwestern Missouri, providing a focus for rapidly developing storms including supercells. Initially this may include hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter, and potential for a few tornadoes before convection grows upscale, spreads east of the axis of maximum instability and also become undercut by the front.
Perhaps aided by forcing associated with one of the perturbations emerging from lower latitudes, there appears a signal in model output that the upscale growing convection may eventually become better organized with one or two notable mesoscale convective vortices evolving while spreading ahead of the front across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon and evening. Downward mixing of strengthening rear-inflow, within a sheared ambient southwesterly deep-layer mean flow already on the order of 35-40 kt, widespread strong to severe wind gusts appear possible, with strongest gusts and/or perhaps brief tornadoes accompanying evolving mesovortices along the gust front.
The cold front/dryline intersection may become another focus for discrete supercell development across parts of south central Kansas into adjacent northwestern Oklahoma by late afternoon. However, the extent of the associated severe weather potential will depend on how quickly this activity is overtaken by the cold front.
..Kerr/Lyons.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170525
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.
Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell structures.
Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York. However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170653
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to southeast Canada during the day on Sunday. A cold front is forecast to initially exist from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle. The cold front will move into the Atlantic and Gulf as surface high pressure builds in its wake.
Some lingering moisture and weak instability will likely be present ahead of the front Sunday morning. By late morning, heating may be sufficient for some storms along and ahead of the front. However, given the weak instability, no severe weather is expected. This front will continue southeast into the Atlantic/Gulf by late afternoon and bring an end to any storm threat across the CONUS (except for the Florida Peninsula).
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 24 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170741 SPC AC 170741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains. At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 17
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 45%
- Saturday, April 18
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game