Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the central High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231250
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST…GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA…AND ACROSS OHIO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the central High Plains.
Southern High Plains
Weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the CO/OK-TX Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe hazards with the stronger storms. Some clustering is expected during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana
In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon. A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible. Farther north over the Ark-La-Miss, some heating ahead of a north-south band of showers/thunderstorms associated with an MCV over OK, will contribute to a marginally supportive wind-damage risk. Have expanded low-wind probabilities to account for observational trends of a semi-organized band of storms continuing east into the Ark-La-Miss during peak heating.
Georgia/South Carolina
A weak mid-level disturbance over MS/AL this morning will move east-northeastward today. Adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this threat wanes by early evening.
Central High Plains
Latest model guidance shows isolated thunderstorms developing late this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms to develop towards early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threat with these storms.
Ohio
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska into southwest Minnesota.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230553
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska into southwest Minnesota.
Synopsis
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.
Nebraska into Minnesota
A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also support a few instances of strong to severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from portions of the Southwest to the central/southern High Plains and across the southern Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest. Severe storms are generally not expected.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230717
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from portions of the Southwest to the central/southern High Plains and across the southern Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest. Severe storms are generally not expected.
On D3/Monday, guidance suggests that height rises will begin across the central US as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the west. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest through the period. Though instability will be minimal, cooling temperatures aloft with the upper low may promote a few thunderstorms towards the end of the period.
Slow moisture return will continue across much of the Plains into the Midwest, with areas of widely scattered areas of thunderstorms possible across portions of the Southwest to the southern/central High Plains and from the southern Ohio Valley into the Southeast. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible from the Plains to the Southeast where better instability resides, but generally weak flow and subsidence aloft will keep organized storm potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, May 24
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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