Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of severe winds and large hail may occur from portions of the upper Midwest into the central Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080538
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of severe winds and large hail may occur from portions of the upper Midwest into the central Plains.
Synopsis
An intense upper low moving into southern SK late this evening will continue northeast through central MB into northern ON ahead of a secondary short-wave trough tracking from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will be maintained between those features from the northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance through the eastern Dakotas and upper MS Valley with the trailing extension of the boundary moving more slowly southeast through the mid-MO Valley and central High Plains.
### Central Plains into the upper Midwest
Clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday from portions of the mid-MO Valley into the upper Midwest within a zone of warm advection and moisture transport along a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). Showers and storms may linger through the morning across parts of WI and the U.P. of MI, limiting the degree of air mass destabilization and associated severe weather risk during the afternoon. Farther to the southwest from IA through eastern and southern NE into northern KS, stronger daytime heating on the southern fringe of lingering mid/high-level cloudiness will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer, featuring steep low-level lapse rates. When combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s F, the air mass is expected to become moderately to strongly unstable by late afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
In the absence of appreciable height falls/large-scale forcing for ascent, convergence along the front and any preceding confluence zones/outflow boundaries is expected to foster a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity by mid to late afternoon amidst the destabilizing air mass. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected to be displaced to the north of the effective warm sector with around 30-35 kt forecast along the frontal zone. A largely parallel shear-vector orientation with the front suggests that initial storms should grow upscale into line segments or a broken band with an associated risk for severe wind gusts from mid afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible; however, poor mid-level lapse are expected to limit the overall threat. The 00Z models do indicate some LLJ enhancement over central IA by late afternoon into evening, resulting in a corridor of stronger low-level shear. While a brief tornado or two are possible, a more robust threat is expected to be limited by largely outflow-dominant storms.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080513
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes
An upper trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday. Stronger deep-layer flow will be focused across the Great Lakes and Northeast, to the north of a corridor of modest instability. As a surface cold front develops southeast toward the Ohio Valley and western NY during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected. While modest instability will limit a more substantial severe risk, stronger deep-layer flow will support sporadic strong gusts.
Central Plains to Lower Ohio Valley
Stronger instability is forecast within a moist and hot airmass from KS to the Lower MO and Lower OH Valleys Wednesday afternoon and evening. This area will remain well south of strong westerly flow aloft associated with the Great Lake upper trough, resulting in modest vertical shear, especial across KS. Despite modest shear, MLCAPE around 1500-2500 amid steeper low and midlevel lapse rates will support some risk of strong to severe convection. Storms developing along a surface boundary will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts. Where marginally stronger shear will be located across the Lower MO Valley vicinity, small hail could also occur with the strongest updrafts.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080632
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.
Discussion
An upper trough will migrate across the Northeast on Thursday, while a second upper trough digs southward across the northwestern U.S. Stronger flow associated with these features will remain confined to the northern Rockies vicinity and over New England. High pressure will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. A seasonally moist boundary layer will be in place from the central/southern High Plains through the southern/southeastern U.S. Pockets of stronger heating and modest destabilization across the warm sector will support scattered thunderstorm development. However, generally weak vertical shear will limit organized severe potential, especially given a lack of focus for severe storm development.
The exception may be with a strong storm or two across the central/southern High Plains in a post-frontal upslope flow regime. A stalled front will become diffuse across the area on Thursday, but vertically veering wind profiles could result in some modestly enhanced vertical shear. Some guidance shows early day convection and cloud cover across this area, resulting in uncertainty in storm coverage during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, lapse rates will remain modest and low-level flow will be weak, precluding severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, September 11 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, September 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, September 15 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080724 SPC AC 080724
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-5/Fri-Sat – Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity
Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.
Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.
Days 6-8/Sun-Tue
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold front will move across the area, and some severe potential could again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.
..Leitman.. 09/08/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, September 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, September 9
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, September 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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