Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear clusters of storms leads to an increase in wind-damage potential by evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170610
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear clusters of storms leads to an increase in wind-damage potential by evening.
Colorado/Central Plains to Upper Midwest
An active severe-weather day is expected regionally. A consequential late-evening/overnight MCS and related outflow across Nebraska/northern Kansas to southern Iowa and northern Missouri will likely be a lingering factor for later today. For one, this includes some southeastward regional adjustment in severe probabilities across areas such as eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and northeast Kansas/far northwest Missouri.
One or more embedded disturbances will emerge this afternoon from the central Rockies amid increasingly prevalent cyclonic flow aloft in advance of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a northward advection of moisture, and post-MCS-related air mass recovery across eastern portions of Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa through late afternoon in association with a warm front, and ahead of a southeast-progressing cold front across the north-central High Plains.
Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska within a low-level upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. These storms will be capable of large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs.
By late afternoon/early evening, quickly intensifying deep convection is expected farther east within the warm sector and near and east/northeast of a surface triple point across parts of eastern Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa, initially including intense supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping as well as the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail, with a somewhat longer duration for more discrete storms with southward extent across eastern Nebraska into northeast Kansas.
With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet significantly increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases.
Kansas/Oklahoma and North Texas
While there are some uncertainties related to capping, particularly with southward extent, at least isolated high-based convection is expected regionally late in the afternoon, particularly for the Kansas and western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle portion of the dryline. Given very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell-supportive wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible.
Northern Illinois and Wisconsin to Lower Michigan
While the influences of the early morning MCS across the Corn Belt are not certain, potentially including lingering cloud cover, there is some potential for at least isolated strong/severe storm development near the northward-shifting warm front. This could potentially include a few supercells and related hazards through the afternoon/early evening.
Southeast/Florida Peninsula
On the western periphery of the western Atlantic anticyclone, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across Georgia and interior/western Florida Peninsula. Thermodynamic environment should be supportive of strong/locally severe storms capable of wind damage/downbursts, and possibly some hail.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.
Synopsis
On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin at the start of the D2/Monday period.
A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be located across central Kansas extending southward into western Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO
Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around 20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+ inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this potential.
The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50 kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach 250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska. Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS.
Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI
Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY. Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper Midwest.
…OK/TX
A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist.
..Thornton.. 05/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160858 SPC AC 160858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Tuesday
Severe potential is expected to continue D4/Tuesday as the cold front extends from the upper Midwest to southern Plains. Moderate to strong instability ahead of the front will continue to support severe storms with potential for damaging wind and large hail from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. Probabilities were shifted eastward and northward with this update in alignment with continued trends for the timing/placement of the cold front.
D5/Wednesday - D8/Saturday
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. This leads to low confidence in any organized severe threat.
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Areas of thunderstorms may continue from the far southern Plains into the Southeast, but confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.
..Thornton.. 05/16/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, May 17
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Monday, May 18
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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