Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 21
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210535
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians.
Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians
A cold front will advance southeastward across the southern and eastern U.S. today. By afternoon, the front is forecast to be positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western Virginia. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into West Virginia. As surface temperature warm, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front from central Mississippi northeastward into western North Carolina, where MLCAPE should peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Low-level convergence will increase along the front during the day, which will be favorable for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will be weak along and near the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon. The thermodynamic environment should be favorable for isolated severe wind gusts with single cells or disorganized multicells. The threat should be largely diurnal but may persist into the early evening in areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Southeast tomorrow (Tuesday).
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210549
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Southeast tomorrow (Tuesday).
Synopsis
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as upper ridging builds back over the Plains states, and another upper trough meanders over the Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday). A surface cold front will continue to drift southward across the southern Appalachians into TX as high pressure ushers in a cooler and stable airmass from the north. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front tomorrow afternoon. Severe potential should remain sparse overall given poor vertical wind shear along the cold front. However, a couple of damaging gusts may accompany wet downbursts with the stronger storm cores over parts of the Southeast, where upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 23
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Plains states and the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210727
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Plains states and the Southeast.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the central Appalachians and broad upper troughing continues along the West Coast on Wednesday. Surface high pressure will become established over portions of the central Rockies and across most of the CONUS east of the MS River. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across portions of the Plains states, where weak surface lee troughing will encourage modest low-level moisture return. A few thunderstorms are also possible closer to the Southeast in advance of an inverted surface trough over the TN Valley. However, given the lack of a clear source of deep-layer ascent, as well as overlapping favorable vertical wind shear or instability anywhere over the CONUS, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, September 24 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, September 25 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, September 26 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, September 27 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, September 28 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210745 SPC AC 210745
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging will persist over the central U.S. while a mid-level cut-off low continues to meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and multiple mid-level troughs traverse the Pacific Northwest later this week into early next week. Through the Days 4-8 period, moisture return will be most prevalent over the Plains states given surface lee troughing, and it is here where thunderstorms will be most likely. However, the overall lack of overlapping shear, buoyancy, and large-scale lift suggest that organized severe potential is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 23
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Thursday, September 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, September 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, September 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, September 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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