Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas.
20z Update
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate that warming surface temperatures (mid-70s F) amid low-60s F dewpoints are supporting greater buoyancy across portions of southeastern New Mexico/West Texas. This relatively greater buoyancy (compared to areas farther north and west) may support a locally greater severe risk across these regions this afternoon/evening given the overlapping presence of effective shear of 30-40+ kts. No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update as overall expectations for the severe risk remain generally unchanged. See the discussion below and MCD #2409 for additional short-term details.
..Chalmers.. 10/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026/
NM into Far West TX
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ. Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM today.
Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated instances of hail greater than 1” in diameter.
More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about 30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is also possible.
Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail is possible with the strongest storms.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251732
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
Synopsis
Broad troughing over the western half of the CONUS will continue Monday as the primary shortwave trough, initially over the southern/central High Plains lifts northeast to the Upper Midwest. An intensifying upper-level cyclone and attendant shortwave trough will deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain West as several weaker perturbations move through the Southwest and southern Plains. A weak surface low will develop and track northeastward into the Midwest with the primary shortwave. A weak lee trough will support modest southerly low-level flow maintaining boundary layer moisture ahead of a slow-moving cold front across the central and southern Plains.
Rio Grande Valley
Modest destabilization is forecast ahead of the weak surface trough/cold front from southwest TX and southern/eastern NM, into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far southwest KS. Surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F amid diurnal heating ahead of the front should allow for modest destabilization Monday afternoon. The front and lee trough should serve a focus for convective development, with isolated thunderstorms forecast to toward late afternoon into the evening, with additional warm advection storms possible over the Midwest overnight. Buoyancy should be generally weak (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) amidst modest mid-level flow and bulk shear (20-25 kt). Locally greater buoyancy and storm coverage across Southwest TX and southern NM could support a stronger storm or two during the afternoon with sporadic damaging gusts or isolated hail not entirely impossible. However, the weak buoyancy along with poor mid-level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity.
Northern Rockies
The upper cyclone, initially over eastern WA/OR will move into the northern Rockies accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft. Low and mid-level lapse rates should steepen in response to the strong ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures (-20 to -25 C). Despite meager moisture, weak instability may develop across parts of ID in the afternoon supporting isolated thunderstorms. While a stray strong gust or small hail cannot be ruled out owing to the increasingly strong upper-level wind fields, cool surface temperatures and weak buoyancy should preclude any organized severe risk.
..Lyons.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
Synopsis
An upper-level cyclone over the northern Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the northern Plains and southern Canada Tuesday. Broad and weak southwest flow aloft will continue over the Southwest and Plains as ridging builds over the Southeast. A weak surface low and trailing front initially over the central Plains will lift northward slowly with the upper cyclone through the period. Modest southerly low-level flow will support 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints, sufficient for modest destabilization ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the broader warm advection regime across parts of the Plains from South TX into the Mid-MO Valley. However, weak instability and vertical shear suggests little, if any, convective organization is likely. This should preclude more than sporadic severe potential.
..Lyons.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, October 28 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, October 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, October 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, October 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250717 SPC AC 250717
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
Generally broad, modest southwesterly mid/upper flow within a lower amplitude upper pattern will overspread much of the central/eastern CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Fri or Sat. Southerly low-level flow will be maintained across the Plains to the MS Valley during this time, supporting increasing boundary layer moisture. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but modest instability and weak vertical shear will preclude severe potential.
..Leitman.. 10/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, October 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, October 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Tuesday, October 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Wednesday, October 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, October 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, October 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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