Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, September 4
Outlook Summary
A couple of organized clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley today through tonight, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts. More widely scattered strong thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge may also pose potential for damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 30%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041255
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
### SUMMARY
A couple of organized clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley today through tonight, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts. More widely scattered strong thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge may also pose potential for damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening.
Southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a deep cyclone over the Pacific Northwest and upper ridging covering the majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow persists between these two features, arcing anticyclonically from southern CA through the central Rockies and northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes and eventually through the Northeast. Recent surface analysis shows a reservoir of low-level moisture beneath the upper ridging, to the south and east of this belt of stronger mid-level flow. Much of this area is void of notable surface features, but a weak front does extend from southern New England through southern NY, central Lower MI, and central WI to a weak low over southern MN. A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms to the south of this front from southern WI into southern Lower MI. This cluster, which was initiated by warm-air advection across MN and WI is forecast to continue southeastward today, likely encountering a diurnally destabilized airmass.
The steeper mid-level lapse rates will remain displaced west of this region, but ample low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints) coupled with afternoon temperatures from the mid 80s to mid 90s will still support moderate to strong buoyancy. As such, reintensification and/or new development is anticipated as the ongoing cluster continues southeastward. Much of this region will be on the southern fringe of the stronger deep-layer shear, with bowing line segments as the predominant storm mode. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected across central and eastern OH, where a corridor of greater potential for damaging gusts exists.
The threat for damaging gusts will extend into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening amid a very warm and moist airmass. Vertical shear will be weak, but ample moisture (i.e. PW values from 1.8” to 2”), strong buoyancy, and steep low-level lapse rates will support the potential for strong outflow capable of wind damage. Bowing line segments will be the primary storm mode here as well.
Central Plains
Weak lee troughing could contribute to modest low-level convergence from western KS across western/central NE into southwest SD. Dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s within this convergence zone, and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong buoyancy. Even so, warm mid-levels may prevent the airmass from completely destabilizing. The remaining convective inhibition, coupled with the presence of large-scale height rises across the region, casts doubt to whether successful convective initiation will occur. Any mature updrafts could result in strong downdraft, but uncertainty is too high to introduce any probabilities with this outlook.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, September 5
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040504
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.
Ohio Valley to southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas
An upper shortwave disturbance will migrate through northwesterly flow aloft, leading to modest height falls across the region on Saturday. As this occurs, midlevel northwesterly flow will strengthen, supporting effective shear magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. At the surface, a cold front will develop south across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic after 00z. Ahead of the front, a very warm and moist airmass will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability.
Forecast guidance varies with regards to possible morning convection, resulting in some uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday. Early convection could be ongoing anywhere from the Lower Ohio Valley toward the WV/VA mountains as remnants from Day 1 thunderstorm activity. Whether this early day activity will dissipate or re-intensify as it moves into the moist and destabilizing downstream airmass is uncertain. Regardless, the overall environment will support afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity ahead of the southward-advancing front and along a surface trough through the parts of the VA/NC/SD Piedmont. Organized clusters will mainly pose a damaging wind risk as convection spreads east/southeast during the afternoon and evening.
Northern/Central Plains vicinity
Substantial upper ridging will be centered over the Plains on Saturday. However, most guidance depicts one of more shortwave disturbances migrating northeast from the central Rockies into the NE/SD vicinity. Additionally, convection could be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-MO Valley. Southeasterly low-level flow will result in modest boundary layer moisture along a surface trough across the northern/central High Plains, with increasing dewpoints further east toward the MO River along a surface boundary. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability across the High Plains, with moderate to strong instability further east.
If storms are occurring at the beginning of the period across the MO Valley, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible, with some intensification possible toward midday/early afternoon within the very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment. Additional widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the surface trough over the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. This activity could produce strong outflow wind gusts given a deeply mixed boundary layer and modest shear, along with isolated large hail.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 6
Outlook Summary
Strong wind gusts are possible across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain and conditional risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 040636
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong wind gusts are possible across the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. A more uncertain and conditional risk for severe wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.
Northern Plains
An amplified upper ridge will remain in place from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Some modest weakening of the ridge may occur as an upper shortwave trough digs across the Northwest and weak shortwave disturbances crest the ridge through the period. At the surface, low pressure will persist across the western Dakotas. Boundary layer moisture will spread across eastern MT on the back side of the surface low, while deep low-level moisture extends across ND into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley along another surface boundary. Capping will be a main limiting factor for storm development. However, if the cap can be overcome, or if elevated convection develops during the day into evening, strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible given supercell wind profiles and corridor of moderate to strong instability.
Deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to increase with the approach of the Northwest upper shortwave trough late in the period across parts of the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains. This could also support possible severe convection overnight into parts of MT, but timing and overlap of stronger shear and better instability remains uncertain.
Overall, severe potential appears conditional on Sunday across portions of the northern Plains. But, if storms can develop, some risk for severe wind/hail will be possible.
Southeast
Weak northwesterly flow aloft will persist on Sunday as a surface front develops south/southwest into the Southeast. Ahead of the surface boundary, a very moist airmass will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability focused across southern GA. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain weak, but high PW values could support sporadic wet microbursts and locally strong wind gusts. Some guidance suggests sufficient clustering and outflow consolidation could occur such that a forward propagating cluster could spread south/southwest across the area. If this occurs, damaging wind potential could increase.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, September 7 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, September 8 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, September 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040747 SPC AC 040747
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Northern Plains to Great Lakes
An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest through Tuesday, before continuing east toward the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will shift the amplified upper ridge over the Plains at the beginning of the period eastward over the Midwest, before flattening the ridge over the Great Lakes through mid-week. As this occurs, enhanced west/southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes. A surface low will track east/northeast across central Canada, and a trailing cold front will move across the region on Tuesday/Wednesday. Some severe potential could develop across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday given enhance southwesterly flow aloft and sufficient moisture ahead of the surface boundary. However, warm midlevels may result in capping while large-scale ascent will be focused mostly north of the international border. As a result, severe potential and storm coverage are uncertain, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time.
The cold front will weaken on Wednesday as the upper low lifts into northern Ontario, and deep-layer flow will veer, becoming mostly westerly. While some severe potential could develop into parts of the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes vicinity, confidence is low regarding where the greatest risk could emerge.
Days 7-8/Thu-Fri
The upper ridge is forecast to once again amplify over the Rockies and into the Plains late in the week and severe potential appears limited.
..Leitman.. 09/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, September 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, September 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, September 6
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, September 7
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, September 8
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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