Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Summary
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 15%
wind 30%
hail 45%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 181625
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
### SUMMARY
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.
Central Plains
Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today.
Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region.
Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals.
Western OK/Northwest TX
Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity.
OH Valley/Great Lakes
A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH.
..Hart/Halbert.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180554
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will lift across the Great Lakes Region on D2/Tuesday with a surface low moving east across southern Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will be located from the Great Lakes south into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Southern Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing across this boundary at the beginning of the D2/Tuesday period.
Great Lakes Vicinity to the Lower Ohio Valley
Some convection may be ongoing across the cold front towards the beginning of the D2 period, with additional development likely by the afternoon along the eastward shifting cold front. Enhanced mid-level flow aloft and weak to moderate instability will support organized storms with potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Additional afternoon thunderstorm development may extend into the Northeast with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
Mid Mississippi Valley to Southern Plains
Convection will be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Mississippi Valley driven by the cold front and potential cold pool propagation. These boundaries will be the focus of re-intensification of convection in the afternoon. Mid-level flow aloft will be weaker across the region but sufficient shear for organization should remain in place. A plume of more favorable moderate to strong instability will be available across central/northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. With afternoon development, steep low to mid level lapse rates and moderate instability will support potential for a few large hail reports. With time, upscale growth will support a downstream damaging wind risk.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Summary
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. Isolated thunderstorms within the upslope regime in western Texas/eastern New Mexico will also pose a risk for large hail.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180724
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. Isolated thunderstorms within the upslope regime in western Texas/eastern New Mexico will also pose a risk for large hail.
Discussion
The mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will continue to lift northward into Canada D3/Wednesday. A cold front will extend from the Northeast southward across the southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward into southwestern Texas. Near the front across the Mid-Atlantic, sufficient deep layer shear and MLCAPE will be in place to support a few organized storms, with potential for damaging winds and large hail which supports inclusion of a Marginal Risk.
Further south across western Texas, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop south of the front within the upslope flow regime across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Though deep layer shear will be generally weak, moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of large hail and severe winds.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, May 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, May 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, May 24 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, May 25 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 181358 SPC AC 181358
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Thursday - D5/Friday
On D4/Thursday, a stationary front will extend across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley and east to the Carolinas. A few stronger thunderstorms may develop south of this boundary, however, the strongest upper-level flow will be displaced to the north, limiting confidence in a more organized severe threat.
Moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. Modest westerly flow across the dryline on D5/Friday may support some potential for severe storms. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited and there is low confidence in including a severe risk area at this time.
D6/Saturday-D8/Monday
Through the end of the extended period, height rises are expected across the central US as a high amplitude ridge settles in from the west. While moisture will continue to move northward into the central/northern Plains, generally weak flow and subsidence will keep severe potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, May 18
- TORNADO: 15%
- HAIL: 45%
- WIND: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, May 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
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