Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 14
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely, particularly from eastern Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150054
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely, particularly from eastern Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.
Synopsis
Scattered discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across eastern Iowa, far northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin along a diffuse warm frontal zone stretching eastward from weak surface low analyzed over eastern NE/western IA. The primary severe risk through the overnight hours will be associated with this activity as it spreads southeast through early morning. Further south across the central/southern Plains, poorly organized convection casts uncertainty in the nocturnal severe threat; however, a favorable environment will remain in place through Wednesday morning and could support severe convection.
Midwest/Great Lakes
01 UTC regional radar mosaics show semi-discrete supercells ongoing across far eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI with the early stages of upscale growth evident as storms interactions increase. This trend will continue through the overnight hours as this activity propagates east/southeast into lower MI and northern IN. The recent 00z DVN RAOB sampled a convective environment highly favorable for organized convection, which will maintain the potential for significant hail and tornadoes in the near term (most likely through 03 UTC) before a full transition to a linear mode takes place. Once this transition occurs, severe winds (including the potential for significant gusts in excess of 75 mph) and embedded circulations appear probable for areas downstream.
Southern Iowa into Kansas
Thunderstorm development along a southward sagging cold front is anticipated in the coming hours across northeast KS into southern IA. Regional soundings sampled adequate buoyancy and strong deep-layer wind shear (around 50 knots) that will likely support organized convection along the front for a few hours. Storm motions along the boundary may foster clustering/upscale growth, but a severe wind, hail, and perhaps tornado threat is expected to materialize through the night.
Oklahoma into Texas
Convective evolution thus far across western OK into northwest TX has been relatively lackluster given the otherwise buoyant and strongly sheared environment sampled by the 00z OUN sounding. This is likely due to expansive convective outflows resulting in undercutting and clustered storm modes as well as the presence of a subsidence inversion (also noted in the 00z sounding). It remains unclear whether or not this activity will be able to re-intensify through the late evening hours given. However, strengthening flow fields through 06 UTC may support some degree of improved organization and a more robust severe threat. This potential is hinted by recent HRRR solutions, but overall confidence is limited. Based on these trends, opted to remove the 30% hail/wind probabilities given low confidence in severe coverage. Further south into western TX, attempts at sustained convection have been noted over the past hour along the dryline, but downstream inhibition may limit overall storm coverage.
..Moore.. 04/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 15
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141738
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.
At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day. Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints along the length of the stationary front.
TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL
A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level wind fields.
Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado will be possible.
From WI/IL eastward into PA
Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL, IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.
..Jewell.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 16
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141915
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York.
Synopsis
A progressive pattern will persist on Thursday, with a leading shortwave trough moving quickly across OH valley into the Northeast. This wave will breakdown the ridge along the East Coast, and provide a focus for scattered strong storms. Low-level warm advection out of the west/southwest will help destabilize the region with storms most likely during the afternoon from the Lower Great Lake across much of upstate NY and northern PA. Instability will be sufficient to support a few fast-moving cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts.
To the southeast, storm coverage is less certain, particularly from AR/MO into the lower OH Valley. Here, cool temperatures aloft will linger, aiding instability, though somewhat behind the upper trough affecting the northeastern states. Showers and storms are most likely in the morning in association with the main wave, but conditional severe probabilities will be higher during the afternoon when instability redevelops. Any storms that form will be capable of producing hail, from MO into AR, western TN/KY, IL and IN.
..Jewell.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, April 17
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 18
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 21
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, April 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Saturday, April 18 | 15% |
| Day 6 | Sunday, April 19 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, April 20 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, April 21 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140846 SPC AC 140846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL
DISCUSSION
Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest
A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday.
Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity
A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential.
Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday
The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 14
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, April 15
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, April 16
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Saturday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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