Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Monday, May 18

Tuesday, May 19

Wednesday, May 20

Thursday, May 21

Friday, May 22

Saturday, May 23

Sunday, May 24

Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 15%

wind 30%

hail 45%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180555

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.

Central Plains and Midwest

A regional outbreak of severe storms, potentially including strong/intense tornadoes (EF2/EF3+), is expected across the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening, although some uncertainties persist regarding the upper-end magnitude/spatial details of the heightened tornado potential. An extensive MCS exists early in the overnight from eastern/central Iowa southwestward into northeast/central Kansas, where regenerative/repetitive storms persist.

This MCS should weaken/lose integrity through the early morning, although convection may regenerate and intensify again along composite outflow, eastward across the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the Great Lakes within a destabilizing air mass this afternoon. Damaging winds should be the most probable risk, although some tornado and hail potential will exist as well.

The western fringe of this remnant cold pool will modify early today with a steady northward flux of low-level moisture, with a very unstable environment unfolding by mid/late afternoon across south-central/eastern Kansas into far west/northwest Missouri and Iowa/far southeast Nebraska. As a shortwave trough/speed max emerges from the central Rockies, deep convective development is expected along the initially stalled or slow-moving northeast/southwest-oriented front across central/northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska and western Iowa by late afternoon.

This increasingly rich low-level moisture will reside beneath an elevated mixed layer characterized by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg. Mass response to the ejecting wave, along with a northeastward-translating 60-70 kt mid-level jet, and a significantly strengthening low-level jet by sunset, will yield increasingly favorable wind profiles for intense supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. This may includes strong and potentially intense tornadoes (EF2/EF3+). That said, the duration of a semi-discrete storm mode remains a key question, given the parallel orientation of the stalled front and the deep-layer shear vectors, and that the front will trend more southeastward-progressive during the evening. Thus, the strong/potentially intense tornado threat will peak prior to upscale growth into line segments along the front, with severe outflow gusts and embedded circulations becoming the main concerns over time tonight as storms progress east-southeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley and middle Mississippi Valley.

Oklahoma and western North Texas

Storm development along the dryline across western Oklahoma into western North Texas/Lower Rolling Plains is more uncertain given more limited forcing for ascent. If/where storms do form, there is the potential for very large hail and a conditional risk for tornadoes. A consistently forecast flow weakness above 400 mb by late afternoon/evening does not appear favorable for particularly long-lived storms if they do form.

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States

Influenced by terrain and a surface trough, isolated strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage could occur this afternoon within a moderately unstable environment.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/18/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough will lift across the Great Lakes Region on D2/Tuesday with a surface low moving east across southern Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will be located from the Great Lakes south into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Southern Plains. Convection will likely be ongoing across this boundary at the beginning of the D2/Tuesday period.

Great Lakes Vicinity to the Lower Ohio Valley

Some convection may be ongoing across the cold front towards the beginning of the D2 period, with additional development likely by the afternoon along the eastward shifting cold front. Enhanced mid-level flow aloft and weak to moderate instability will support organized storms with potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail. Additional afternoon thunderstorm development may extend into the Northeast with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

Mid Mississippi Valley to Southern Plains

Convection will be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Mississippi Valley driven by the cold front and potential cold pool propagation. These boundaries will be the focus of re-intensification of convection in the afternoon. Mid-level flow aloft will be weaker across the region but sufficient shear for organization should remain in place. A plume of more favorable moderate to strong instability will be available across central/northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. With afternoon development, steep low to mid level lapse rates and moderate instability will support potential for a few large hail reports. With time, upscale growth will support a downstream damaging wind risk.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. Isolated thunderstorms within the upslope regime in western Texas/eastern New Mexico will also pose a risk for large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180724

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. Isolated thunderstorms within the upslope regime in western Texas/eastern New Mexico will also pose a risk for large hail.

Discussion

The mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will continue to lift northward into Canada D3/Wednesday. A cold front will extend from the Northeast southward across the southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward into southwestern Texas. Near the front across the Mid-Atlantic, sufficient deep layer shear and MLCAPE will be in place to support a few organized storms, with potential for damaging winds and large hail which supports inclusion of a Marginal Risk.

Further south across western Texas, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop south of the front within the upslope flow regime across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. Though deep layer shear will be generally weak, moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of large hail and severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 20	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

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Outlook for Friday, May 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 20	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 20	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, May 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 20	low / uncertain
Day 5	Thursday, May 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170854 SPC AC 170854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday

On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat.

D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Monday, May 18: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 45%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, May 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 20: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, May 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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