Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 21
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England Thursday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210518
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England Thursday morning.
Southern New England
Strong upper low will shift southeast from the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage low-level warm advection across southern New England as a surface low repositions itself off the middle Atlantic coast, south of Long Island. Forecast soundings suggest weak elevated buoyancy will develop north of this boundary as mid-level lapse rates will steepen as 500mb temperatures cool in advance of the approaching trough. Strongest elevated updrafts may exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge, but this should mainly be prior to 18z. Thereafter, deepest convection will focus offshore.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Friday, November 22
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210612
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast on Friday.
Synopsis
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the Pacific Northwest region late.
Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability forecast over much of the CONUS.
The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR, as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a severe threat.
..Jewell.. 11/21/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 23
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200905 SPC AC 200905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.
..Jewell.. 11/20/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 24
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200905 SPC AC 200905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.
..Jewell.. 11/20/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 25
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200905 SPC AC 200905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.
..Jewell.. 11/20/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200905 SPC AC 200905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.
..Jewell.. 11/20/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200905 SPC AC 200905
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4 into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS, with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.
..Jewell.. 11/20/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 21
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 22
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 23
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Sunday, November 24
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, November 25
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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