Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, December 19
Outlook Summary
While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191620
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 20
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190650
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.
Synopsis
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico.
As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production.
Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region. The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday night.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 21
Outlook Summary
Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes established behind the front.
Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus, while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10 percent area with this outlook.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Monday, December 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 191000 SPC AC 191000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 191000 SPC AC 191000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 191000 SPC AC 191000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 191000 SPC AC 191000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, December 22 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, December 23 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, December 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, December 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, December 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 191000 SPC AC 191000
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, December 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, December 21
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, December 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, December 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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