Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191955

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

20Z Update

The TSTM area was removed in eastern NC, where the cold front and related thunderstorm potential has shifted offshore. The TSTM area was also trimmed behind a band of eastward-moving thunderstorms departing the New England coast, and no lightning is expected behind this activity. Farther south in parts of central FL, isolated thunderstorms are evolving along the sea breeze focused over the Treasure Coast. While storm coverage and intensity are expected to remain isolated/marginal, a warm/unstable PBL and around 35 kt of midlevel flow could support a strong storm or two capable of locally strong gusts, though this activity is expected to remain sub-severe.

..Weinman.. 04/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/

Synopsis

A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms through the period.

Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will preclude a risk of organized severe storms.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191720

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

Synopsis

An upper trough within the Northeast will progress offshore on Monday. A subtle shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will move into South Texas/middle Texas coast overnight into Tuesday morning. On the West Coast, a stronger upper trough will into parts of the Northwest and northern/central California. A surface high pressure system across much of the east will remain largely in place. Very modest moisture return is possible into the Rio Grande Valley and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos regions.

South Florida

Moderate mid-level flow is expected across the Peninsula given the upper trough to the north. Though mid-level temperatures will be cooling during the day, persistent northeasterly winds at the surface will lead to a large down-peninsular component at low levels. Dewpoints will have a tendency to drop during the same time frame. This pattern, coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should keep severe potential low.

Trans-Pecos into Central/South Texas

With moisture return into the Davis Mountains vicinity, a storm or two could develop within the terrain. A modest enhancement to deep-layer shear in association with the subtle perturbation moving through could allow for a stronger storm. Given how isolated this activity would be as well as its dependency on sufficient moisture return, confidence in such a scenario is quite low.

Farther east, warm air advection will increase during the overnight hours. Elevated buoyancy is expected to increase during this time frame. Shear will be weaker with northern extent and increasing southward in closer proximity to the weak shortwave perturbation. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak as will MUCAPE (less than 750 J/kg). Small hail may occur with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 04/19/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 191936

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low.

Synopsis

Upper ridging will be the primary feature across much of the CONUS from the eastern Great Basin into Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest and portions of the Ohio Valley in the wake of a stronger upper trough. Along the West Coast, an upper trough is expected to slowly move ashore in central California into the western Great Basin. At the surface, continued presence of high pressure in the Southeast and off the Atlantic coast will drive moisture return into a stalled/remnant cold front in central Plains and Lower Great Lakes vicinity.

Lower Great Lakes

Modest moisture return ahead of the boundary is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may not occur until early/mid evening, however. Temperatures will be quite cold aloft (perhaps near -20 C at 500 mb), but moisture could be quite limited (potentially in the 40s F). The NAM is again the most aggressive with moisture return as compared to other guidance. Should sufficient moisture return occur, shear will be sufficient for marginally organized convection capable of strong gusts and hail. Uncertainty is high given how dry the airmass is preceding this moisture return and convection near the Gulf Coast on preceding days will potentially slow northward progress.

Central Valley California

Ahead of the upper low, southeasterly winds may develop within the Valley. While destabilization will not be overly strong, pockets of heating could lead to modest MLCAPE values by the afternoon. Shear will be a limiting factor for overall severe potential, but a stronger storm or two is possible.

Central Texas

Convection will be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Modest deep-layer shear and elevated buoyancy could promote a couple stronger storms capable of small hail. However, storms should generally become less organized with time as upper-level ridging builds in through the day.

..Wendt.. 04/19/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190900 SPC AC 190900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A western trough will take hold in the days preceding this convective period. Ahead of this trough moisture will return northward through the central Plains, with 50F dewpoints reaching perhaps as far north as the Canadian border during Wednesday/Day-4. This return flow setup and western trough will set the stage for multiple days of severe weather potential.

On Wednesday/Day-4, a lobe of vorticity will eject northeast out of the western longwave trough across the central and northern Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis should take place across the far northern Plains. To the south of this surface low, a dryline should sharpen across western Nebraska and Kansas. At the same time, vertical shear should strengthen as the shortwave moves northeast across the region. The kinematic profiles will support supercells initiating along the dryline. However, concerns remain about the quality of the moisture to the east of the dryline and subsequently as to the number of potential thunderstorms that may develop. This uncertainty precluded the introduction of unconditional 15% probabilities at this time.

On Thursday/Day-5, the shortwave trough/midlevel low will deepen as it slowly moves north-northeast during the day. This will help maintain a strong surface cyclone across the northern Plains, with strong southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northward to the east of the north-south oriented frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the aforementioned frontal boundary across a large portion of the central US. Strong vertical wind shear across this frontal boundary will promote severe potential from Oklahoma northward to perhaps as far north as Minnesota. The northern extent of the severe potential will be delimited by the degree of moisture return, and have expanded the unconditional 15% probability area northward into Iowa to account for the increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential.

Overnight Thursday/Day-5, a surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow, should push east across the northern and central Plains and south-southeast across the southern Plains. Another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday/Day-6 across portions of northeast Texas/northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas as diurnal heating of a moist airmass results in MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg beneath modest vertical shear associated persistent southwest midlevel flow.

The severe potential will likely persist into Saturday/Day-7 and Sunday/Day-8 across portions of the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast states. Here, persistent western troughing will maintain an increasingly moist airmass along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. The location of this frontal boundary will likely be significantly impacted by the repeated rounds of thunderstorms in the prior days. Model guidance is in general agreement that at least modest westerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains, with episodic perturbations traversing this flow field downstream of the broader large-scale western trough. However, significant differences remain with respect to the timing, strength, and location of any of these perturbations to attempt to highlight unconditional severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, April 19

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Monday, April 20

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Tuesday, April 21

ANY SEVERE: low

Wednesday, April 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 23

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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