Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, November 4
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Southeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041944
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Southeast.
20z Update
Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk area to clear behind the ongoing convection. See MCD#2444 and the previous discussion below for more details.
..Halbert-E.. 11/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026/
Southeast
Moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft is present over the southeast states today, with water vapor imagery showing a pronounced shortwave trough over MS/AL. As this trough translates eastward today, scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of AL/GA/SC and east TN. Two regimes appear to pose a risk of isolated strong/severe storms later today.
The first area is along the primary cold front over eastern AL and western GA. Most recent CAM solutions suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along the front by mid-afternoon, with at least pockets of heating occurring out ahead. A few supercells are possible. Forecast soundings show weakening low-level winds and some veering in areas of better heating. This may tend to reduce the tornado risk, but the strongest cells could be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.
Another area of concern will stretch from central/northeast GA into upstate SC later today. Low-level winds will remain backed and moderately strong in this area, leading to favorable shear profiles for a tornado or two in the more persistent storms.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, November 5
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041723
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.
Synopsis
A mid/upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central/southern Plains early Thursday will pivot eastward, becoming oriented from the Great Lakes to the TN Valley by early Friday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow will extend from the southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. However, this stronger flow will mainly be focused behind a surface cold front that will slowly progress eastward across the Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, supporting widespread cloud cover within the warm advection regime from GA to southern New England. This will limit stronger destabilization, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, though severe potential will remain unlikely.
Elsewhere, a southern vorticity max will move across OK near the tail end of the larger-scale eastern trough. Strong cooling aloft will support elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms during the day. Late-night elevated thunderstorms may also occur over Deep South TX, as a cold front undercuts a moist air mass.
..Leitman.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Friday, November 6
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 041910
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.
Eastern NC and vicinity
An upper low and attendant trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the TN Valley will become more progressive on Friday, shifting east toward the Eastern Seaboard and New England. This will bring a belt of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow across the Carolinas, northward through the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the Mid-Atlantic and move offshore through the period, with a trailing front shifting east across eastern VA/NC/SC/GA and northern FL.
Ahead of the front, mid-60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as southeast VA. This will aid in weak destabilization across the eastern Carolinas toward southeast VA within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, cloudiness and possible ongoing showers/thunderstorms across portions of the region will inhibit stronger destabilization despite cooling aloft and favorable boundary layer moisture. Nevertheless, strengthening vertical shear is anticipated by midday, and where pockets of stronger heating/destabilization can occur, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible. These stronger storms could produce sporadic wind damage, and a Level 1/Marginal risk has been included with the Day 3 update.
..Leitman.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, November 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, November 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, November 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, November 7 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, November 8 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, November 9 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, November 10 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, November 11 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040918 SPC AC 040918
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
DISCUSSION
For the Sat/D4 through Wed/D8 period, thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the U.S. due to a lack of instability. An upper trough will exit the eastern U.S. on Sat/D4, with high pressure over most of the CONUS. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to dig southeastward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern states, maintaining a cool and stable pattern. Any appreciable instability will remain offshore, with little if any severe potential expected.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, November 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, November 5
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 6
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Saturday, November 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, November 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, November 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, November 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, November 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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