Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021956
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA…NORTHERN ILLINOIS…AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan.
20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI
Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near 60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional RAOBs.
Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is the primary concern.
The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 04/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/
IA/IL/MO/WI
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.
The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue to show only widely scattered discrete development across this corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI
Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Summary
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021724
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
### SUMMARY
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.
Northern MO/southern IA area
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence is low in the forecast details.
Ozarks to northwest TX
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.
Southwest TX
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell structures.
..Thompson.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Summary
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from southeast Texas into the Mid-South.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 021925
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in advance of a cold front across the upper Ohio Valley and from southeast Texas into the Mid-South.
Upper OH Valley and vicinity
A surface cold front will move eastward from the MS Valley into the OH Valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into ON/QC and in advance of an associated midlevel trough. The typical uncertainties surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area, but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front Saturday afternoon/evening. Likewise, an increase in low-midlevel flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the front. The main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a gradual weakening of convection expected overnight.
Southeast TX to the Mid-South
Widespread convection is expected along a cold front late Friday into early Saturday, and this front will continue southeastward through the day. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in the warm sector. Wind profiles will be a little more favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the MRGL area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel westerly flow. The forecast pattern best supports isolated wind damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and likely influences of morning convection suggest additional refinements are likely in later updates.
..Thompson.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020833 SPC AC 020833
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West. This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+ dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020833 SPC AC 020833
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West. This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+ dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020833 SPC AC 020833
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West. This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+ dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020833 SPC AC 020833
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West. This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+ dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020833 SPC AC 020833
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West. This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+ dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, April 2
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Friday, April 3
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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