Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, May 30

Sunday, May 31

Monday, June 1

Tuesday, June 2

Wednesday, June 3

Thursday, June 4

Friday, June 5

Saturday, June 6

Outlook for Saturday, May 30

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301620

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.

Central KS into OK

A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the primary concern.

Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer, promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

Northeast CO/NE Panhandle

Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.

..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 31

Outlook Summary

A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 301733

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE OZARKS…AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS

### SUMMARY

A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas.

Synopsis

A weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday, with cool midlevel temperatures. Mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch from CO into KS and NE, behind the upper wave. This will also result in midlevel drying across the central Plains.

A surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of the High Plains, with low pressure centers over SD and western TX during the afternoon. High pressure will exist from the Great Lakes to the East Coast with an upper trough over the Northeast, and southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of this surface high from the lower MS Valley northwestward across the MO Valley.

Dakotas southeastward into AR

Storms may be ongoing over southern MO or northern AR Sunday morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting continued unstable inflow. Conditionally, an MCS is possible, with potential to persist southeastward into AR and perhaps even MS later in the day. This is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would be possible.

Farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper wave from central SD into ND. Temperatures aloft will be cool and may support hail despite weak shear.

To the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern KS into western MO late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to strong instability develops. Some of this may depend on how much early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist. Conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and brief tornado risk.

OK into western TX

Strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from north-central OK into northwest TX. Weak surface convergence, 60s F dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. These storms would likely be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.

Farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest TX, where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the area during the afternoon. Scattered storms are likely here, with locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, and across parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachians.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S….AND FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, and across parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachians.

Central Plains/Lower To Mid Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Northern Ozarks

Mid-level heights will rise across the central U.S. on Monday as a ridge builds northward across the region. A broad moist sector will be in place from the central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate to strong instability will develop over much of this airmass. Due to rising heights, large-scale ascent in the central U.S. will be limited. However, model forecasts suggest that zones of low-level convergence will become focused, most prominently from southern Kansas eastward into the northern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may form along these zones of convergence during the afternoon. The strongest instability is forecast over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where forecast soundings have MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, 0-6 km shear in this area is forecast to be in the 25 to 30 knot range, which should be enough to support an isolated severe threat. Hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Further west into parts of central High Plains, some model forecasts show an axis of low-level moisture and instability from western Kansas into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms that can develop near this axis of instability during the mid to late afternoon may be associated with hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

Carolinas/Southern Appalachians

An upper-level trough is forecast to move southward from the Great Lakes into the central Appalachians on Monday. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front is forecast to be located from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Lift along the frontal zone will support thunderstorm development, with these storms moving southeastward into the moist sector during the afternoon. Model forecasts to the south of the front in South Carolina suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. This could be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 30: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, May 31: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, June 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, June 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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