Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not anticipated today.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 271247
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not anticipated today.
FL
A large upper trough remains dominant over the eastern U.S. today, with a cold front sweeping southward across FL. A few thunderstorms will be possible over central/south FL through the afternoon, but low-level drying will eventually stabilize the air mass and end the convective threat after dark.
PA/NY
Cold temperatures aloft and warm lake temperatures could be sufficient for a few lightning strikes in the lee of Lake Erie and Ontario today. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates and the depth of the unstable layer will be sufficient for occasional thundersnow through today and this evening.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Summary
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270654
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
Synopsis
Surface high pressure across much of the Interior West, as well as the northern and eastern CONUS, will limit thunderstorm potential in these regions due to static stability. However, the rapid approach of a mid-level trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). As the surface low materializes over western OK during the day, modest low-level moisture will advect northward with the aid of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are expected to overspread the aforementioned low-level warm-air advection, promoting destabilization Friday night/early Saturday morning atop a stable boundary layer. This elevated buoyancy, characterized by 500-1000 J/kg thin MUCAPE constrained above 700 mb, will support nocturnal thunderstorm development over portions of the southern Plains, when the primary upper support with the approaching mid-level trough arrives. Given strong vertical wind shear (e.g. elongated hodographs), a few of the stronger storms may produce hail. However, given limited elevated MUCAPE, the confidence in the coverage of more than sparse severe hail is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 270828
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening.
Synopsis
A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front.
Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX. Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.
Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 4
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, November 30 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 1 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 3 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, December 4 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
DISCUSSION
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.
..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, November 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, November 28
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, December 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, December 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, December 4
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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