Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180508
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Discussion
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS Wednesday morning through late Thursday. Across the western US, a trough will gradually shift across the Great Basin with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the Desert Southwest into the central/southern High Plains. Forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft will bring scattered thunderstorm activity across the central California coast to the Oregon/Washington Coast. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible across the southern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Generally weak thermal profiles will limit severe potential with this activity.
A secondary trough will continue to shift northeast across the Great Lakes Region. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along an eastward moving front within a narrow region of warm air advection. Given the generally narrow/weak region of marginal instability, activity is this region is expected to remain sub-severe.
..Thornton/Squitieri.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA…PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of the Southeast.
A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations, within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest, may be in the process of progressing into and across the central Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at the outset of the period. The lead perturbation, probably accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region later Thursday through Thursday night.
Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive deepening Thursday night.
Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley
It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio Valley. However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak.
The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath 40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before convection wanes late Thursday evening.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Summary
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear less than 5 percent across the U.S.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 180829
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear less than 5 percent across the U.S.
Discussion
Models indicate that mid/upper flow may undergo renewed amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, including a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians. Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley.
An initially vigorous short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged from this troughing, may maintain considerable strength into the day Friday while progressing east-northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. However, it is still generally forecast to become sheared and weaken to the south of a mid-level high centered near southern Hudson/James Bays. As it does, the associated occluding cyclone is forecast to substantively weaken. It continues to appear that secondary surface cyclogenesis across and east-northeast of the Mid Atlantic region will remain subdued, and the primary trailing surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall near the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies, across parts of the Carolinas into the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday.
Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the Gulf is probable along and south of this front. However, warm layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development. As mid/upper forcing for ascent, associated with short waves within the strong flow emerging from the Southwest, remains mostly to the cool side of the front, potential for stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone.
While deep-layer shear near the front is likely to be strong and potentially supportive of organized thunderstorm development, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become conducive to a risk for severe weather remains unclear. It appears that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, and most unstable CAPE is forecast anywhere from modest to weak. At the present time the risk for severe thunderstorms Friday through Friday night appears mostly conditional, and too conditional support a forecast of 5 percent or greater severe probabilities. However, this could still change in later outlook updates for this period, particularly across parts of the Gulf Coast states.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, February 25 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
DISCUSSION
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.
At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.
While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.
..Kerr.. 02/18/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, February 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 19
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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