Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251250

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

A closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over Manitoba and Saskatchewan today, while generally zonal/westerly mid-level winds persist over the southern Plains. A weak shortwave trough over the Southwest/southern Rockies this morning is forecast to eject eastward over the southern/central Plains by late this afternoon. At the surface, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary draped across north-central/northeast TX will shift northward into OK as a warm front today, while a low gradually deepens over northwest TX by late afternoon/early evening. Rich low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely advance as far north as central into southeast OK through peak diurnal heating, with lesser moisture return farther north into northwest OK, KS, and southeast NE ahead of a cold front. A dryline will extend south-southwestward from the surface low across central into south-central TX.

Southern/Central Plains into the ArkLaTex

Strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in TX and south of the warm front in OK by peak afternoon heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very favorable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not expected to be overly robust, it should be sufficient for at least isolated thunderstorm initiation by mid afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z), especially near the warm front/dryline intersection in south-central OK.

40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits likely. This activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation, and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in diameter). The Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas have been expanded slightly in OK and north TX to account for deviant thunderstorm motions and the potential for multiple intense supercells to track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation remains low. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for this potential, with some expansion eastward in case isolated thunderstorms do initiate.

Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally enhanced 0-1 km SRH will be present near the warm front with backed near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with any right-split supercells that can remain surface based. A slight increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a couple of EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds as it spreads southeastward into the ArkLaTex.

Farther north in KS/NE, instability and low-level moisture is expected to remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters may eventually develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity through mid evening before it eventually weakens.

Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast

A long-lived convective cluster has nearly moved offshore from the coast of AL/MS/LA. In its wake, a rain-cooled airmass exists across much of the lower MS Valley. This should hinder the development of much surface-based instability through early afternoon. Still, eventual re-destabilization should occur along/near the remnant outflow boundary. Isolated cells that may develop could pose some risk for hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250534

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS…ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Models continue to indicate that a remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation will tend to redevelop north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba during this period, within generally weakening larger-scale troughing extending along an axis inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the same time, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable strength, as a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within southwesterly flow which is likely to strengthen across the southern Rockies through central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night.

There appears a bit more disparity within guidance concerning when the stronger mid-level height falls associated with the primary impulse spread across the Rockies through the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high plains. It now appears that it may not be until early evening or later, but it does appear that this may be preceded by a more subtle perturbation across the same vicinity, perhaps as early as Sunday morning. The lead wave may be accompanied by one developing surface low within lee surface troughing across central Nebraska into the mid Missouri Valley, while the trailing wave supports the eastward migration of another surface cyclone out of southeastern Colorado into central Kansas late Sunday through 12Z Monday.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air, initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models suggest that warm advection, at least in lower/mid-levels, will strengthen and become focused in a corridor across north central through northeastern Kansas by late Sunday evening, near the nose of a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.

Central/Southern Great Plains

Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, has not offered much more in the way of clarity concerning convective potential for this period. Among other issues, the plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeastward through the southern and central Great Plains may prove inhibitive to the initiation of storms across much of the developing warm sector, while also contributing to moderate to strong potential instability. Potential for early day convection across western Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains may also impact later day severe weather potential.

Even so, guidance generally indicates that a cyclonically curved, 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak will nose across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region by early Sunday evening. This likely will contribute to strengthening convergence along a sharpening dryline, particularly across portions of western Kansas, where at least a narrow corridor of moderate boundary-layer destabilization probably will become supportive of supercell development. The potential for a couple of strong tornadoes probably will increase as cells propagate east-northeastward Sunday evening, in the presence of enlarging clockwise curved hodographs beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb). Tornadic potential probably will maximize during the mid to late evening, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one or more clusters, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across north central/northeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of the Great Plains.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Summary

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA…A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN…MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI…ILLINOIS…WESTERN INDIANA…WESTERN KENTUCKY…WESTERN TENNESSEE…NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS

### SUMMARY

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.

Discussion

Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region during this period, as a notable short wave perturbation and associated 50-70 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet streak progress northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley region. Beneath a plume of warm/capping elevated mixed-layer air nosing northeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley, low-level warm sector moistening is generally forecast to contribute to moderate to strong potential instability. Although the details of the potential convective evolution remain unclear, the environment appears likely to become supportive of organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells. Even if convection grows quickly upscale into one or more clusters/lines, embedded supercell structures will probably still pose potential for producing strong tornadoes. If an initially discrete supercell mode is maintained for a sustained period, tornadic potential could maximize, with a few long track, particularly damaging tornadoes possible.

At this time, it appears that strongest thunderstorm development may initially focus in forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of the initially capping elevated mixed-layer across parts of southeastern Iowa into central Illinois. Enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along this corridor, perhaps coinciding with a zone of stronger differential surface heating associated with a modifying outflow boundary, may become conducive to several strong tornadic supercells before convection tends to grow upscale while propagating southeastward into Monday evening.

A dryline structure extending southwestward through portions of eastern Missouri may also support initially discrete supercell development, before activity tends to grow upscale ahead of an advancing cold front while spreading into the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Monday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 25

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 45%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, April 26

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 45%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, April 29

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, April 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 1

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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