Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, June 21

Monday, June 22

Tuesday, June 23

Wednesday, June 24

Thursday, June 25

Friday, June 26

Saturday, June 27

Outlook for Sunday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210554

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.

Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley

An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.

Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime.

In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley.

Central High Plains into the Ozarks

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.

Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms.

Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains. Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow. An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these two features.

Mid-Atlantic

Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50 knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability will support storm organization, including the potential for some supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging winds will be likely from any storms that develop.

A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added at this time.

Central/Northern High Plains

Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated wind gusts.

Northwest Texas and Vicinity

A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline. Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this time.

Mid-Mississippi Valley

Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat. However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat mostly marginal/isolated.

..Bentley.. 06/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, June 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, June 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, June 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, June 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 201605 SPC AC 201605

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

DISCUSSION

An extended period of moderate northwesterly flow across the High Plains will lead to severe weather potential across the central High Plains. Upslope flow amid 30 to 50 knots mid-level winds should result in a severe weather environment, potentially on Tuesday, and particularly Wednesday and Thursday. The front will shift based on small-scale embedded shortwave disturbances and the prior day's convection, which will shift the location of the unstable warm sector. This results in uncertainty regarding the location of the threat for each day. This will continue to be monitored for potential areas to be added later.

Ridging will slide east across the Rockies and into the Plains by next weekend. Some severe weather threat may exist through this time as multiple embedded shortwave troughs will be within this region as instability increases across the Plains.

While it is mostly beyond Day 8, it is worth noting that deterministic, ensemble, and AI guidance all indicate a strong jet streak and mid-level trough traversing the Rockies toward the end of next weekend and into early next week. A strong lee cyclone would accompany this with strong instability across the Plains. There is still uncertainty with the timing and location of the trough, but given the agreement in this general pattern change, a substantial severe weather threat seems possible by the end of next weekend and early into the following week across portions of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 06/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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