Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, October 15
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 151252
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
Shortwave trough currently centered over the central High Plains is forecast to progress quickly northeastward, becoming absorbed within a deep upper trough progressing out of the Canadian Prairies towards the Upper Midwest. This evolution will yield a deep upper trough from Ontario through the Upper Midwest and into the Mid MO Valley by early tomorrow morning. Intense mid-level flow will accompany this trough, with 90 to 100 kt at 500 mb possible within its eastern periphery from central IL across Lower MI.
Surface low associated with the central High Plains shortwave trough is currently centered over southeast KS. This low is forecast to progress northeastward in tandem with its parent shortwave while gradually deepening. Moist low-levels will accompany this low, with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints advecting northward across much of the lower/upper OH Valley this afternoon and evening. This increasing low-level moisture will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for reintensification of ongoing storms and/or new development across the warm sector. The best overlap of strong shear (supported by strengthening mid-level flow) and buoyancy is expected near (or just south of) the warm front, which will likely extend from southern IL through far southern OH during the afternoon, and from central IL southwestward through central OH by 00Z this evening.
A very moist airmass (and associated buoyancy) and moderate low to mid-level flow will support the potential for bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. Long, curved low-level hodographs support the potential for a few brief tornadoes as well. A second area of low-probability tornado potential may materialize near the surface low as it moves across northern IL. However, widespread clouds and limited diurnal heating should temper buoyancy, and the current expectation is that the limited buoyancy should keep updraft depth too shallow and updraft persistence too short to merit introducing any severe probabilities.
West/Central TX
An outflow-augmented cold front currently extends from a surface low just west of MAF north-northeastward through just east of LBB into the eastern TX Panhandle. This boundary is forecast to make slow southeastward progress today. A very moist and modestly buoyant airmass ahead of this cold front will support continued showers and thunderstorms. However, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will likely trend these storms towards a more anafrontal character. Mid-level lapse rates also will remain poor. A water-loaded gust or two is possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, October 16
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150523
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
The models continue to slow the progression of an intense midlevel trough, which will track through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes toward the Appalachians by early Saturday. An attending belt of strong, southwesterly mid/upper-level flow (e.g., 70-90 kt at 500 mb) will precede the trough, the eastern edge of which will overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. In the low levels, a surface cyclone will develop from the lower Great Lakes into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, while a trailing cold front advances from the lower Great Lakes/upper-Ohio Valley regions Friday morning to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday night.
### Mid-Atlantic
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Friday from northern PA and NY into New England, with lingering clouds and decreasing boundary-layer moisture with northward extent limiting air mass destabilization in the vicinity of the surface low. Farther south ahead of the cold front, greater diabatic heating will combine with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 F to yield MLCAPE approaching 500-750 J/kg by mid afternoon. Overall CAPE depth and magnitude will be limited by warm temperatures aloft on the anticyclonic side of the upper-level jet streak.
Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by late morning or early afternoon along the front over eastern OH and WV into western parts of PA and NY. An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected through the remainder of the afternoon as the front encounters a more unstable air mass with eastward extent. Vertical shear will be strong with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-55 kt, suggesting the potential for embedded supercells and/or bowing structures within the line. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, though a brief tornado or two appear possible in the Delaware River Valley and Delmarva, where locally stronger low-level shear is forecast during the late afternoon into early evening.
An upgrade to Level-2/Slight Risk has been included with this forecast update to highlight the area where the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear is forecast from mid afternoon into early evening.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, October 17
Outlook Summary
No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150709
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe weather is expected Saturday or Saturday night.
Discussion
An initial, full-latitude trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to fracture into a more progressive polar air stream over the Northeast and a cut-off low along the Carolina Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move through the FL Peninsula, while an expansive ridge of high pressure stretches from the southern Plains into the Northeast.
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front in FL by afternoon, contributing to diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. While locally gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms, poor midlevel lapse rates and displacement of stronger vertical shear to the north of the surface warm sector are expected to limit severe weather potential.
Elsewhere, an upper low will approach the southern CA and northern Baja Coasts with a few elevated thunderstorms possible over the lower Colorado Valley within a zone of midlevel moistening and ascent downstream from that feature.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, October 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, October 18 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, October 19 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, October 20 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, October 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150818 SPC AC 150818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The primary upper-air feature of interest is an amplifying trough, which will evolve into a closed low along the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday/Days 5 and 6. Thereafter, 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates the midlevel system will shift east into the Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley with an associated belt of stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Rockies and potentially central and southern High Plains by Thursday/Day 8. In the low levels, surface ridging is forecast to persist from the Northeast into the southern Plains into at least early next week, which will slow the return of moisture from off the Gulf into the Great Plains.
Days 4 through 6/Sunday through Tuesday
A few strong thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the lower Colorado Valley into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, especially on Tuesday. However, instability currently appears too weak to support a severe weather threat.
### Days 7 and 8/Wednesday through Thursday
While particular details regarding location and intensity of the midlevel trough/low remain uncertain, there is some ensemble signal that a favorable overlap of stronger vertical shear and at least modest instability could materialize over the southern Rockies, where a few strong to severe storms may occur. At least an isolated severe weather threat could spread from the southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains by Thursday on the condition that sufficient low-level moistening/destabilization occurs along and to the east of a surface lee trough.
..Mead.. 10/15/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, October 15
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, October 16
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, October 17
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, October 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 19
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, October 20
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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