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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible in the San Joaquin Valley of central California early this evening, capable of isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 220045

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible in the San Joaquin Valley of central California early this evening, capable of isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado.

San Joaquin Valley

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low just off the coast of far northern California. A mid-level jet is wrapped around the southern edge of the system. Within the left exit region of the mid-level jet, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the San Joaquin Valley. Strong lift is present along the northern gradient of the mid-level jet, which is coincident with a pocket of instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. Over this area, the mid-level jet is creating deep-layer shear exceeding 85 knots. This environment will continue support a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible for another hour this evening.

..Broyles.. 04/22/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211724

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains.

Synopsis

A broad trough within parts of the Northwest and Great Basin will progress eastward through the day Wednesday. The mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and impact the northern High Plains during the evening overnight. A secondary mid-level jet will dig into the Southwest by early Thursday morning. The upper-level ridge across the Plains will begin to break down and shift eastward. At the surface, a deep surface low will track along the Montana/Canada border. Strengthening flow across the Rockies will promote a moderately strong lee trough. Surface moisture will continue to advect north and west during the period. Richer moisture will generally remain within the southern Plains and adjacent High Plains with less certain moisture quality farther north.

Western Nebraska…western South Dakota

With greater large-scale ascent and closer proximity to the surface low, confidence in storm development is higher in these areas. The main question will be the degree of moisture return that can occur through the day. Model guidance still varies widely in this regard. Dewpoints near 50 F are possible into southwest Nebraska, but this may occur towards 00Z or later. Farther north, dewpoints in the 40s F may be the ceiling for late afternoon/early evening. A probable scenario is that high-based convection develops within the terrain of eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota and within the surface trough. Some intensification is possible as this activity encounters greater surface moisture to the east. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard given the steep low-level lapse rates and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. Linear structures would be favored in South Dakota given the deep-layer flow orientation. A supercell or two could occur in western Nebraska, should storms form.

Southern High Plains into Western Kansas

With the synoptic trough lagging to the west, mid-level height falls will be very weak during the afternoon. The dryline/surface trough will be the focus for storm development. Temperatures nearing 90 F behind the dryline appear sufficient for an isolated storm or two to develop. That said, some guidance does not develop any convection. Deep-layer shear will be roughly perpendicular to the surface trough and mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Storms that can develop will be supercellular. Large hail would be the main concern with this activity.

Eastern Montana

High-based convection is possible in association with the deepening surface low. Dewpoints will not likely reach 40 F. Gusty outflow winds are possible, but potential for severe gusts is low.

..Wendt.. 04/21/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, April 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211937

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

Synopsis

Two shortwave troughs within a larger-scale trough over much of the Rockies will pivot northeast on Thursday. The initial shortwave will impact parts of the central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. A second, compact shortwave will pivot into parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. At the surface, moisture return will continue ahead of a Pacific cold front in the central Plains. A weak surface low is expected to develop along the Oklahoma/Kansas border and track eastward. Attendant to this low, a dryline will drape southward into the Permian Basin.

Central and southern Kansas…Oklahoma

With mid-level ascent arriving mid/late afternoon, storms are likely to initiate along the cold front as well as near the triple point associated with the weak surface low along the KS/OK border. Supercells are most likely near the triple point and could persist so long as storm interactions remain minimal. 40-45 kts of shear and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will promote storms capable of all hazards, including tornadoes and very-large hail. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of this activity during the evening. The tornado threat could increase for storms that can remain discrete.

In Oklahoma, if and how many storms develop remains uncertain along the dryline. Northern portions of Oklahoma are more likely to have severe storms given the proximity to the surface low. A similar environment will exist east of the dryline as does farther north into southern Kansas. There is a conditional threat for all severe hazards.

Mid-Missouri Valley

Storms are expected to develop along the cold front potentially as early as mid afternoon. However, capping appears strong enough in forecast soundings that initiation could delay until late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place along and ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear will be 30-40 kts, but generally parallel to the front. Initial storms could be supercellular and produce large to very-large hail early in the convective cycle. Upscale growth appears likely to occur rather quickly. Damaging/severe winds would become the primary risk at that point. Tornadoes are also possible given the low-level shear, both with initial supercells and perhaps with QLCS circulations.

..Wendt.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, April 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, April 26

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, April 27

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 21

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, April 22

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, April 23

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, April 24

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, April 25

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, April 26

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, April 27

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, April 28

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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