Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, September 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261950
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.
20z Update
The forecast remains generally on track, with only a slight southward expansion of the 5% wind probability area made with this update based on latest environmental/observational trends. As of 1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite imagery from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated thunderstorm development ongoing across the higher terrain of southwest Texas. Temperatures have generally warmed into the upper-80s to mid-90s F across much of the region, with T-Td spreads approaching 30 F in some parts of northwest Texas. Coupled with steep low-level lapse rates, this may support isolated potential for strong/damaging outflow wind gusts. with an instance of large hail also possible (primarily farther north where deep-layer shear is forecast to be marginally stronger). A lack of stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, generally weak/modest low- to mid-tropospheric flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit overall convective intensity and severe coverage, however.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 09/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026/
Synopsis
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by tonight. Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is expected this afternoon. Surface heating west of the clouds and within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across western OK into northwest TX. Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the primary hazard late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.
Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA. Other isolated lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a low-level warm advection regime.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, September 27
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261711
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Synopsis
A broad western trough will evolve into an upper low in central California with another weaker shortwave trough within the northern Rockies into Monday morning. A modest surface trough will extend from parts of the northern High Plains into the southern High Plains. While some low-level moisture will be maintained within the High Plains on the western flank of a surface high, overall moisture quality/depth will be limited. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover across much of these regions will limit the degree of destabilization that will occur. Capping is likely to limit storm development during the afternoon in the northeast Wyoming/Black Hills vicinity where a stronger storm would be conditionally possible otherwise. Later in the evening, a strengthening low-level jet in the northern Plains will promote scattered storm development. Mid-level lapse rates could support small hail. A weak surface low in the southern High Plains could allow isolated storms to initiate where surface heating will be greater than farther north. Weak shear should limit any organization of that activity. Overall severe potential appears low across the CONUS.
..Wendt.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, September 28
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261927
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will continue to move eastward into the Lower Colorado Valley through Monday/early Tuesday. This will be separate from a stronger belt of upper-level winds across the northwestern/north-central U.S. Moisture within the Plains will be maintained by low-level southerly flow. A weak surface low is expected near the Black Hills. As this low/trough evolves through the day, a cold front will move southeastward into parts of the Dakotas. While some surface heating is possible in the vicinity of the front, increasing clouds/precipitation will generally keep surface temperatures cooler. Warmer air aloft should keep capping in place during the afternoon. Storm development is more likely after 00Z as the front begins to move southeastward and the low-level jet increases. Less than ideal diurnal timing, weak effective shear, and modest mid-level lapse rates will likely limit severe potential with this activity.
..Wendt.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, September 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, October 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 2
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 3
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Tuesday, September 29 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Wednesday, September 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Thursday, October 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Friday, October 2 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Saturday, October 3 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 261129 SPC AC 261129
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper trough is poised to gradually track eastward across the Interior West and eject into the Plains states through next week. Surface low development is likely across the southern Plains sometime in the Days 5-6 (Wednesday-Thursday) time frame, when low-level moisture advection and accompanying buoyancy will appreciably increase. However, vertical wind shear is expected to be limited, so organized severe potential does not appear evident, though at least isolated severe is possible across the southern Plains around next Thursday. Thereafter, a cold front will progress southeastward across much of the CONUS, displacing buoyancy across much of the Plains and MS Valley, further limiting the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, September 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Sunday, September 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Monday, September 28
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Tuesday, September 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, September 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, October 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 2
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, October 3
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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