Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, July 17

Saturday, July 18

Sunday, July 19

Monday, July 20

Tuesday, July 21

Wednesday, July 22

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible today across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. More isolated strong to severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170558

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES…GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

### SUMMARY

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible today across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. More isolated strong to severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

Northern Rockies and Adjacent Plains

An upper low over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to lift slowly northward as an expansive upper ridge continues to build across the western US. East of the low, a broad area of monsoon moisture will persist over much of the Rocky Mountains. Weak ascent on the periphery of the upper low and diurnal heating across the higher terrain should allow for scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon. While displaced from the core of the stronger flow aloft as the upper low drifts to the north, sufficient effective shear of 25-35 kt will exist for occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms into the evening across ID and western MT.

Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes

An upper trough initially over AB/SK will move southward into the northern Great Lakes by early Saturday. A belt of stronger mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough will aid in deepening a surface low as it moves into western ON. A warm front will lift north with the deepening low over the Upper Midwest. A cold front trailing the surface low will provide a focus for thunderstorm development over northern MN, WI and the UP of MI this afternoon and evening.

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing early in the period near or just across the international border. These storms could reinvigorate with a risk for some damaging gusts and hail, though confidence in the convective evolution is low. Later in the day ahead of the cold front, moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat for isolated supercells or organized multicell clusters, with a threat of hail and damaging winds. Any persistent supercell may also pose at least a brief tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the surface low and warm front where low-level shear will be maximized.

As the main upper trough continues to southeast one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may persist into the overnight along the warm front. However, confidence in this scenario is lower owing to the prior convection and uncertainties of diurnal development along the cold front. Still, a strengthening wind field and ample moisture could support a risk for damaging winds into northern Lower MI overnight.

OH Valley to the southern Appalachians

A warm and seasonably moist air mass will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy beneath the upper ridge from the OH valley toward the Southeast and southern Appalachians. A weak, convectively enhanced sub-tropical disturbance moving northward and the higher terrain should focus more widespread diurnal thunderstorm activity from portions of IN/OH, into eastern KY/TN, the western Carolinas and northern GA. Despite weak deep-layer shear below 20 kt, moderate to strong MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) and PWATS exceeding 2 inches may allow for sporadic damaging gusts with any stronger multicell clusters.

FL

CAM guidance shows vigorous storm development just offshore of the FL Gulf Coast Friday morning, in association with a weak midlevel trough/low. Additional storm development is expected by afternoon across much of the peninsula. Large buoyancy and high PWATs suggest localized strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out near the coast and inland this afternoon.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170532

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late Saturday night.

Ohio Valley/Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic

An upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to amplify as it pivots east across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region on Saturday. As this occurs, deep-layer flow will increase, with guidance suggesting 850-500 mb flow in the 40-50 kt range will be common. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will develop south/southeast across the region during the late afternoon into nighttime hours. Ahead of the front, a quasi-warm front is expect to be oriented across the Mid-Atlantic and will lift northward through the day within a strong warm advection regime. Initially modest boundary layer moisture across PA, northward through the Hudson Valley will rapidly moisten ahead of the approaching cold front. A corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is expected from the Mid-MS and OH Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic.

Convection may be ongoing across parts of PA/NY into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning within the strong warm advection regime. Some potential for an initial round of severe storms could accompany this activity, especially near the surface warm front. Additional thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon near a prefrontal trough and along higher terrain in VA/NC. Vertical shear will be somewhat less with southward extent, but scattered cells and clusters will develop east through early evening posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Supercell wind profiles are apparent in forecast soundings and a tornado risk is also possible, especially near the surface warm front and prefrontal trough where 0-1 km SRH will be maximized.

Substantial thunderstorm development is also expected within a second corridor near the surface cold front from southern Quebec into MI/IN/IL by midday. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F will provide ample support for 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA. Organized cells and line segments will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths across the region.

Some uncertainty still exists due to effects from morning convection and possible impacts from persistent smoke across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. However, the overall pattern supports a broad area of severe potential, with several swaths of damaging winds and a few tornadoes expected.

MT/ID

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the area on the southern periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft as an shortwave upper trough shifts east across the Canadian Rockies. Ample midlevel moisture amid steep lapse rates will foster MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings also indicate elongated/straight hodographs amid 35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated organized cells will pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts through early evening.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Summary

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170626

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA

### SUMMARY

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on Sunday.

Southern Appalachians to Coastal Carolinas/Southeast Virginia

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A couple of embedded vorticity maxima within the base of the trough will move across the southern Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic region through early evening. Deep layer westerly flow will remain modest, but a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place. Large instability coupled with PW values near 2 inches will support isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A corridor of relative greater risk may develop from southeast VA into eastern NC near a stalled frontal boundary and where vertical shear may be modestly stronger (25 kt effective shear).

Eastern ND into northern MN

Northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on Sunday/Sunday night as upper ridging flattens a bit as an upper shortwave trough emerges over the Canadian Prairies. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells could develop. Some potential for capping could limit storm coverage, but any storm that develops could be a higher-based supercell capable of severe hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 20	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 21	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 7	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 21

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 20	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 21	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 7	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 20	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 21	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 7	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 20	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 21	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 7	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 20	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 21	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 22	15%
Day 7	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170755 SPC AC 170755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall, severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, July 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 21: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.