Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, February 27

Outlook Summary

Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271940

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low.

20z Update - Southeast

No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous discussion below for details.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/

Southeast

A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.

Synopsis

A broad northwest flow regime is expected to persist across the CONUS through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will largely be focused in proximity to a pair of embedded upper-level shortwave troughs over the eastern Gulf and off the northern CA coast. At the surface, a cold front associated with an intensifying cyclone over the Canadian Prairies will push south and east across the Plains and Midwest over the next 36-48 hours, eventually stalling across OK and the Ozark Plateau late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Weak ascent along this frontal zone will promote isolated thunderstorm chances.

Florida

Mid-morning surface observations depict a cold front drifting southeast into the northern Gulf and Southeast. This feature is expected to gradually migrate southward over the next 48 hours as surface high pressure builds across the Southeast. However, gradual frontolysis is expected, which will help maintain the moist air mass building across southern to central FL, where dewpoints have increased to the upper 60s and low 70s. An upper wave over the northern Gulf will overspread the FL Peninsula around peak heating Saturday. Modest broad-scale ascent within a moist, weakly capped, and fairly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms. 30-40 knot mid-level flow attendant to the upper wave will allow for adequate hodograph elongation for organized thunderstorms capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Diminishing low-level convergence along the frontal zone casts uncertainty on overall storm coverage, but most 12z CAMs and global guidance show a consistent QPF signal along the southeastern FL coast where localized sea-breeze convergence/ascent may increase thunderstorm chances.

.Northern California and adjacent states

A low-amplitude upper disturbance is noted in morning water-vapor imagery well off the northern CA coast approaching the crest of the longwave ridge. This feature will begin moving inland across northern CA by late Saturday morning, reaching the western Great Basin by evening/overnight. An influx of moisture from the Pacific will support deep moistening of profiles across the region. This, combined with steepening lapse rates/cooling temperatures aloft, will support favorable buoyancy for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. MUCAPE is forecast to generally be near/below 250 J/kg, but pockets of higher buoyancy (closer to 500 J/kg) appear possible based on recent CAMs, which may support storms capable of small hail and gusty winds.

.Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau

Surface high pressure currently positioned over the Texarkana region will migrate east/southeast over the next 24 hours in the wake of the ongoing frontal passage into the northern Gulf/Southeast. Southerly flow on the western periphery of this high, coupled with modest lee troughing along the High Plains, will promote modest moisture return through Saturday evening. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms appear possible Saturday afternoon within the low-level warm advection regime with a slight uptick in convection anticipated late evening/overnight as the approaching cold front settles into the region. Model consensus suggests buoyancy profiles will be too limited to support intense convection.

..Moore.. 02/27/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271918

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.

Synopsis

The mean northwesterly flow regime currently over the CONUS will gradually begin to shift east through the late weekend and into early next week as a somewhat more potent upper-level wave approaches the West Coast. Cooling temperatures aloft associated with the approaching upper wave will support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across CA and into OR, NV, and parts of southwest ID late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Further east, strengthening mid-level flow across the central Rockies will promote weak lee cyclogenesis in proximity to a residual baroclinic zone across the southern Plains. An uptick in low-level winds will augment isentropic upglide over the frontal zone across OK into eastern KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR. Strong mid-level winds atop strong veering in the lowest few kilometers will conditionally support organized convection; however, most guidance suggests buoyancy profiles will remain fairly limited (less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE per GEFS/ECENS output) due to meager moisture quality. This limits confidence in any severe threat at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may linger across southern FL where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in place as a weak frontal boundary drifts south.

..Moore.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, February 27

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Saturday, February 28

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, March 1

ANY SEVERE: low

Monday, March 2

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, March 3

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Wednesday, March 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, March 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, March 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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