Severe Weather Outlook
Hayley here
- Do you like
lofi music
whatever music Hayley put on
and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!
* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, March 30
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300541
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early Tuesday morning.
Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes
Today and tonight at mid-levels in the Mississippi Valley, west-northwesterly flow will gradually transition to west-southwesterly, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Great Lakes. In response, low-level moisture advection will strengthen over the central U.S., as a 50 to 60 knot 850 mb jet develops across the central Plains. The northern edge of the low-level jet will be located in the upper Mississippi Valley by this evening. Strong lift associated with the jet will likely result in convective initiation during the mid to late evening from northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. RAP forecast soundings at 06Z in the La Crosse vicinity have MUCAPE increasing into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with effective shear forecast to be near 40 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to approach 8.5 C/km. This environment will likely support large hail with elevated supercells that develop in the late evening and early overnight period. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible.
Further east into Lower Michigan, convective initiation is expected to occur by late in the period. Compared with areas to the west, MUCAPE and lapse rates in Lower Michigan are forecast to be weaker. For this reason, the hail threat there is expected to be more widely spaced and marginal.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, March 31
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains with localized hail/wind.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300559
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the southern Plains with localized hail/wind.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery across the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, a diffuse lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across the High Plains. Over the next 24-48 hours, this cyclone will intensify as it translates east across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region in tandem with the upper wave. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest ahead of this low and along a trailing cold front with increasingly sparse convective coverage with southwestward extent into the Plains. Elsewhere across the country, isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of Southeast states within a plume of returning rich low-level moisture as well as across the Southwest and northern Great Basin as ascent associated with a weak upper disturbance overspreads the region.
Great Lakes
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday morning within the warm frontal zone of the approaching cyclone. Based on latest high-res guidance, this activity should largely exit the upper Great Lakes region by early afternoon and allow for some degree of air mass recovery ahead of the approaching cold front. Westerly 40-50 knot shear vectors will likely support initially semi-discrete storm modes across portions of the upper MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity by early afternoon with an attendant large hail risk.
With time, upscale growth along the front into one or more linear segments is expected - especially in close proximity to the surface low where forcing for ascent will be greatest. Latest HREF/REFS ensemble guidance continues to depict the strongest convective signal across lower MI and downstream into the Lake Erie region where low-level moistening should support MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg ahead of the low. Additionally, low-level warm advection preceding the surface low will support 0-1 km SRH values on the order of 250 m2/s2 across the lower Great Lakes region. While it remains unclear whether or not discrete storms can develop within the diffuse warm frontal zone ahead of any convective lines/clusters, a tornado threat may materialize as convection moves into the favorably sheared environment during the evening hours.
Southern Plains
Modest deepening of a lee trough/low across the southern High Plains will support some tightening of a dryline across western OK into adjacent portions of northwest TX as a cold front stalls across northwest OK. Ample heating/mixing and weak low-level convergence may sufficiently erode inhibition and provide adequate ascent along the dryline and/or cold front to support at least a few isolated thunderstorms. A combination of marginal deep-layer wind shear (25-30 knots of effective bulk shear) and dry low-level conditions may support an isolated hail and severe wind risk with the more robust convection.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 1
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely pose a large hail and severe wind threat.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 300728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely pose a large hail and severe wind threat.
Synopsis
A cold front is forecast to push southward into the OH Valley and southern to central Plains late Tuesday as a surface low races across the Great Lakes region. This boundary is forecast stall across OK north and eastward into the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday. Aloft, an upper-level shortwave trough will approach the southern/central Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday, and will support the steady strengthening of a lee trough/surface low across southeast CO into southern KS. Northward advancement of the stalled boundary as a warm front is anticipated through the day as the surface low deepens with a sharpening dryline becoming established across western OK southward into TX. Scattered thunderstorm development appears probable along both the dryline and warm front by late afternoon and early evening. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along the stationary boundary across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
.Southern/Central Plains
Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will be in place across northern TX into OK and southern KS by early Wednesday with steep lapse rates aloft as increasingly southwesterly flow advects an EML eastward over the next 72 hours. Despite initial capping, ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave, coupled with daytime heating, will likely erode inhibition and support thunderstorm development by late afternoon across northwest TX and OK along the dryline. Initially discrete cells may organize into supercells given forecasted deep-layer shear values of 30-35 knots; however, the general consensus among medium-range guidance is that relatively quick upscale growth will occur by the evening hours as mid/upper-level flow increasingly orients along the dryline and broad-scale ascent strengthens with the ejection of the upper wave. As upscale growth occurs, damaging/severe winds should become the predominant threat. While most guidance show this general scenario, spread persists regarding the strength of the mid-level flow and timing of the upper wave, which both may influence the overall intensity of convection and the subsequent severe risk.
Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic
Nebulous broad-scale ascent along the stalled boundary will likely result in primarily isolated to widely scattered convection Wednesday afternoon across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However, westerly 25-30 knot mid-level flow along the boundary coupled with 25-30 F dewpoint depressions may support the development of a few convective clusters that could pose an isolated damaging wind risk. Confidence in this scenario is too limited at this time for risk probabilities, but a focused corridor of isolated severe risk may emerge.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, April 2 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, April 3 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, April 4 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, April 5 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, April 6 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.
D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley
A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.
D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.
D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, March 30
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, March 31
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, April 1
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, April 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 3
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, April 4
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, April 6
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game