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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091635

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

Central and Northern Plains

Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today, with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains, although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.

General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.

A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps the realization of a discrete storm or two.

Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75 mph.

Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley

Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA…WISCONSIN…NORTHERN ILLINOIS…AND EASTERN IOWA

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night.

Synopsis

An upper trough will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread the Upper MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an intensifying low-level jet during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, providing ample support for organized convection.

At the surface, a quasi-warm front/moisture gradient is noted from north-central MN into northern Lower MI in model guidance during the morning. This boundary may lift northward through the day, though some influence from the Great Lakes may maintain this gradient across northern WI/MI. Otherwise the surface cold front will be located from northwest MN into northwest KS by midday. This boundary will march eastward through the period, becoming oriented from Upper MI/central WI to southeast NE by Thursday morning. The southern extent of the front will stall over KS as a surface low deepens across the central Plains overnight in response to another upper shortwave trough ejecting over the Rockies/High Plains.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity into northeast KS

A somewhat complex scenario is evident for Wednesday, with potential for more than one round of severe storms possible for parts of the region, particularly IA/WI/IL. This complex scenario will be influence by potential remnant MCVs and outflows from Day 2/Tuesday convection persisting into Wednesday morning or migrating into the area by early afternoon ahead of the main synoptic front. Additional convection will then also be possible along the main front late afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the region, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Steep lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will support moderate to strong instability from 2000-4000 J/kg. Initial storm development will be supercells given favorable vertically veering shear profiles with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes over a large area. With time, one or more bowing clusters may develop via cold pool consolidation and linear organization along the cold front as a 40+ kt low-level jet develops by early evening. Initial large to very large hail and a strong tornado risk will accompany discrete cells. Damaging wind potential will be greater with more linear storm mode and some gusts could be greater than 75 mph with these organized linear modes.

During the early evening, additional convection is expected to develop along the surface boundary from northeast KS into northwest MO and southern IA. Some forecast guidance (particularly the RAP) suggests this zone may be particularly favorable for supercell development as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts a possibly a strong tornado will be possible with this convection along the southwest extent of the surface front. Overnight, additional storms may develop across eastern NE into western IA in a warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough ejecting into the central High Plains after 06z. This activity will likely be elevated, but would still pose a risk for large hail and perhaps strong wind gusts.

South-central KS into western OK and the TX Panhandle

Vertical shear will become more limited with southwest extent on Wednesday. Capping also may limit storm development/coverage into the TX Panhandle. Nevertheless, any storms that do development will likely be somewhat higher-based and pose a risk for strong outflow winds. Large to very large hail will also be possible with any longer-lived storms given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs.

Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic

A weak midlevel shortwave trough will migrate across the region on Wednesday. This will result in modestly enhanced vertical shear as midlevel flow increases during peak heating. At the surface, rich boundary layer moisture will overspread the area. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F and strong heating into the 80s F will result in moderate destabilization. Morning convection may be ongoing across portions of the Delmarva vicinity, resulting in uncertainty with regards to the extent of afternoon severe potential, but at least isolated potential for strong gusts is possible from NY/PA/NJ southward into the Delmarva.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN IOWA…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Synopsis

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with 500-mb wind speeds approaching 70-80 kt. The 00z models have slowed the progression of the mid-level wave, as well as the associated surface low, which is forecast to develop from northeast KS along the synoptic front or remnant outflow from overnight storms into southern WI by afternoon and northern lower MI or the UP by Thursday night.

### Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes

A very moist boundary layer will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderate to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon to the south of the composite surface boundary. A cluster of mainly elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of the mid MO Valley, to the northeast of the surface low. Those storms are expected to become progressively more surface-based and intense by mid to late morning into afternoon while rapidly moving northeast, coincident with the surface low. Forecast sounding within the inflow environment of those storms indicate strong low-level and deep-layer shear, supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of potentially strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging winds.

Additional severe storms are expected to develop along the trailing front from the lower MO and mid MS Valleys southwest through the Ozarks into southern Plains. The progressive nature of the mid-level system suggests the potential for long-tracked supercells and bowing structures capable of tornadoes and swaths of destructive winds.

### Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast

While large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain relatively weak, model guidance indicates scattered, afternoon storm development from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the central Appalachians to the vicinity of a lee trough in the Mid-Atlantic. Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass will support wet microburst activity and an associated risk for sporadic damaging winds.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable.

Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM.

### Day 5/Saturday

The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Ontario, and a positively tilted trough from the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced, westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those features, from the northern and central Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, the various ensemble members consistently show the clustering of low centers over the central High Plains with an associated surface front extending into the upper Great Lakes.

Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the surface front from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes with more than sufficient deep-layer to support higher-order storm modes. Highest confidence in storm development Saturday afternoon and evening is across the central Plains into mid/lower MO Valley from the vicinity of the surface low northeast along the surface front.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible along a weakening front in the Carolinas.

### Day 6/Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions depict lowering mid-level heights from the central Plains into Great Lakes and OH Valley, in conjunction with the gradual amplification of a long-wave trough located east of the North American Rockies. More specifically, a number of the deterministic models suggest a short-wave trough moving from the northern into central Rockies, with another potentially more intense mid-level system moving through the Northeast. An associated surface front preceding both features may serve as the focus for some severe-weather threat from the Northeast through the OH Valley into the Southern Plains. However, there is considerable uncertainty in finer-scale details, so no area will be highlighted.

### Days 7-8/Monday and Tuesday

Further amplification of the long-wave trough is forecast with an associated belt of mid-level flow extending from the central Plains through the mid MS Valley into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Despite growing spread across the deterministic models, there is a modest signal that the Day 6/Sunday central Rockies short-wave trough will progress through the central Plains into mid MS Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop ahead of that disturbance in the vicinity of the surface frontal system, should that scenario unfold as advertised.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 9

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 45%

Wednesday, June 10

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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