Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, March 5

Friday, March 6

Saturday, March 7

Sunday, March 8

Monday, March 9

Tuesday, March 10

Wednesday, March 11

Thursday, March 12

Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 15%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051726

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.

Southern/Central Plains

An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening, which will promote continued northward transport of low-level moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.

Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.

Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However, confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.

Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians

A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.

Florida Peninsula

Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime, strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high, mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 10%

wind 15%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051732

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST TX

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

Synopsis

Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest

Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level 3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds near the front should taper the threat overnight.

A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday night.

West TX

Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.

..Grams.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Summary

Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050828

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.

Texas Coastal Plain/Western Louisiana

Mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the south-central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the Texas Coastal Plains and Ark-La-Tex by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the 60s F, contributing to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in the day and steadily increase in coverage. A large complex of storms is forecast to move southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain and the Sabine River Valley during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to 35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. This should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line segments that form ahead of the front. A few supercells with large hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the southern Texas Hill Country, where forecast soundings have stronger deep-layer shear. During the evening, the severe threat should move offshore from the middle and upper Texas into the Gulf.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians

At mid-levels on Saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S., as an associated jet streak translates through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will advance eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s F in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the 50s F in the southern and central Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas ahead of the front by afternoon. Forecast soundings in the upper Ohio Valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of southwesterly flow just above the surface. This will contribute to a wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the front in the afternoon. The greatest wind-damage threat will likely be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, March 5: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Friday, March 6: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, March 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, March 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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