Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, February 6
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061958
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Southern CA
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.
..Hart.. 02/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/
Synopsis
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today, ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low- to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.
Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, February 7
Outlook Summary
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico on Saturday morning/early afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061704
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico on Saturday morning/early afternoon.
Discussion… An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will bring reinforcing dry/polar air and surface high pressure to most of the eastern CONUS. Most of the western 2/3rds of the CONUS will experience mid-level ridging which will keep weather conditions benign. The only exceptions will be the Pacific Northwest and a weak trough across northern New Mexico. Ahead of this trough, across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, some weak instability may develop beneath some mid-upper-level diffluence. Storm coverage will likely remain isolated, but forecast soundings support some potential for lightning from late morning through early afternoon across this region.
..Bentley.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, February 8
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 061929
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
Discussion
A large ridge across the western CONUS will suppress through the period on Sunday as a jet streak extends from the Pacific into the northern Rockies. Cooling air aloft across the Pacific Northwest may lead to sufficiently deep instability for some lightning. At this time, expect most of the lightning to remain offshore. Therefore, no thunder area has been added to the coastal areas at this time.
Beneath the larger ridge, an upper low will move slowly east across northern Mexico. Surface heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will result in modest instability across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Forcing will remain relatively weak, but the uncapped environment, combined with some terrain influences may lead to isolated thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.
..Bentley.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, February 9
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060750 SPC AC 060750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day 6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.
By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture return.
..Leitman.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 10
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060750 SPC AC 060750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day 6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.
By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture return.
..Leitman.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, February 11
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060750 SPC AC 060750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day 6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.
By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture return.
..Leitman.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, February 12
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060750 SPC AC 060750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day 6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.
By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture return.
..Leitman.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, February 13
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, February 9 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, February 10 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, February 11 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, February 12 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, February 13 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060750 SPC AC 060750
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day 6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.
By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture return.
..Leitman.. 02/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, February 6
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, February 7
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, February 8
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, February 9
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 10
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, February 11
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, February 12
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, February 13
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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