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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with potential for severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. A few severe gusts and hail may also occur over parts of the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280537

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLATIC AND CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with potential for severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. A few severe gusts and hail may also occur over parts of the central High Plains.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas

An upper-level trough will dig south-southeastward into the eastern U.S. today, as an associated cold front moves into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon over much of the region. Convection is expected to first develop around midday in the higher terrain of northern Virginia and Pennsylvania. These storms are forecast to expand in coverage, moving southward through the remainder of Virginia into North Carolina during the afternoon.

The strongest instability is forecast from southeastern Virginia into central North Carolina, where MLCAPE could peak around 3000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, supportive of supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach near 225 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, with the low-level shear being amplified by the directional component. This should support an isolated tornado threat with supercells. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. The potential for severe gusts could extend further west into the foothills of the Appalachians across west-central North Carolina and far northern South Carolina.

Central High Plains

A mid-level ridge will be in place today across the High Plains, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward through the ridge. This feature along with topographic ascent will support scattered convective development during the afternoon. Thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of the storms, RAP forecast soundings at 21Z have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280539

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

Synopsis

An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the Mid-Atlantic with associated troughing extending south along the Atlantic Coast. Some mid-level flow enhancement is forecast across the Carolinas into GA Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving through the base of the trough. Elsewhere, an upper high will remain anchored over the southern Rockies with a series of perturbations rotating through the western into northern periphery of that feature.

At the surface, a cool front will settle south into the southeast Atlantic coastal areas and central and eastern Gulf states by afternoon with the boundary extending northwest into the central Plains. Farther west, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen over the northern High Plains with an associated lee trough extending into the central High Plains.

### Southeast

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the 70s are expected to yield a strongly unstable, prefrontal air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. The glancing influence of the mid-level wave passing to the immediate north will combine with modest frontal convergence to foster scattered thunderstorms by afternoon from central and southern AL into southern GA and northern FL. While the strongest deep-layer shear is expected to remain across the post-frontal air mass, a modest increase in mid-level flow will overspread the frontal zone. That, along with the strong buoyancy, high precipitable water content, and steepening low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging wet microbursts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

### Northern High Plains

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant moderate instability (e.g., MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) are forecast by afternoon to the east of the surface low and lee trough. Strong daytime heating and the approach of a weak mid-level disturbance from the west are expected to erode the cap, allowing for widely scattered storm development from late afternoon into evening. Model soundings indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which suggests the potential for high-based, transient supercell structures with an associated risk for localized severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. There is some model signal for a potentially greater severe wind gust threat developing over western into central ND Wednesday evening. Should that signal persist, an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be required.

### Southern New England

A zone of enhanced low-level shear is forecast to develop to the immediate east of the deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation are expected to limit air mass destabilization within the zone of stronger shear, which should preclude a severe weather threat. However, if later model runs indicate stronger instability than is currently forecast, low severe weather probabilities may be required.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Summary

Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible Thursday afternoon into night across the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon into night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280709

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible Thursday afternoon into night across the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon into night.

Synopsis

A series of vorticity maxima is forecast to pivot through the northern Plains and upper Midwest, within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over the western Dakotas will develop east-southeast to eastern SD or southern MN by Thursday night. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance through the northern into central Plains.

### Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley

Latest model guidance indicates the potential for multiple areas of showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday, aided by forcing for ascent attendant to a lead disturbance aloft and low-level warm advection along a waning, nocturnal low-level jet. The extent and duration of the early-day convection will have implications for the degree of air mass destabilization by afternoon ahead of the cold front. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately to potentially strongly unstable air mass. However, vertical shear will tend to be limited by generally less than 30 kt of mid-level flow across the warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon along the cold front as well as any residual outflow boundaries from the morning convection. The models suggest the potential for upscale growth into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Only 5% total severe probabilities will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty in the preferred corridor(s) of greater air mass destabilization and resultant severe weather threat. An upgrade to a Level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary once those details become more clear.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Saturday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.

Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Saturday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.

Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Saturday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.

Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, August 3

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Saturday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.

Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Saturday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.

Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 28

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, July 29

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, August 3

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, August 4

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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