Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131230

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MONTANA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.

Southeast

A very weak mid-level trough will persist over the Deep South and Carolinas today, with modest westerly flow. Although rich low-level moisture remains present across these areas, multiple days of convective overturning has resulted in rather poor lapse rates aloft. This, along with persistent cloudiness, should limit to some degree how much instability will develop this afternoon with filtered daytime heating. Deep-layer shear will also remain weak, and thunderstorms should generally be disorganized. Some loose clustering may eventually occur with convection spreading eastward from the central Gulf Coast towards the FL Peninsula, where low-level lapse rates should become steepened by peak afternoon heating. Isolated damaging winds appear possible with the strongest cores from parts of FL into eastern GA and SC ahead of the weak mid-level trough.

Montana

Mid/upper-level ridging will extend from the southern/central Rockies to the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the period, with a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow over western/central MT. High-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of southwest into central MT amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. While low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to remain limited, some risk for occasional strong to severe gusts may accompany this convection as it spreads northward through the early evening before weakening.

Arizona

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning across parts of southern AZ. While mid-level east-southeasterly flow will persist today across much of AZ on the southern periphery of prominent upper ridging, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur in the wake of this morning's convection. Whether convection will be able to spread westward off the higher terrain of southeast AZ and the Mogollon Rim is also uncertain. Have therefore not included low severe wind probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana.

Synopsis

The expansive mid-level ridge centered across the north-central United States will begin to quickly retrograde on Tuesday in response to a strong short-wave trough digging southeast across the Northeast. Enhanced mid-level flow will surround the center of this mid-level ridge, with multiple vorticity/speed maxima moving through this enhanced flow.

### New England

A strong short-wave trough will move across New England during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly low-level flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs across northern New England. Additionally, the orientation of the low-level flow will allow rich boundary layer moisture to advect northeastward, through the St. Lawrence Valley, and into northern New England. (HREF ensemble mean dewpoints are greater than 70F across northern New York into western Maine.) The combination of a warm, moist boundary layer and modest mid-level lapse rates should yield strong instability by the afternoon, with HREF probabilities of exceeding 2000 J/kg MUCAPE greater than 50% across portions of the area.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of an approaching surface cold front during the afternoon within the St. Lawrence Valley. At the same time, vertical wind shear will be increasing throughout the day as the mid-level trough approaches. Given strong instability and effective-layer shear in excess of 50 knots by late afternoon, multiple clusters of severe storms are expected north of New England. These storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear clusters as they move into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight.

Given the degree of instability and strength of the flow, severe thunderstorm winds are likely (some significant). Large hail will also be possible with any storms. Additionally, forecast soundings show enough low-level curvature to support a tornado threat, including a strong tornado or two, with any sustained surface-based supercell.

### Portions of Western and Central Montana

Strong mid-level flow will persist across the northern Rockies, bringing an influx of low- and mid-level moisture compared to recent days. An embedded shortwave trough moving across the region will combine with daytime heating over the higher terrain to support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. However, increasing cloud cover may limit these storms from fully rooting in the boundary layer. Despite this limitation, the strongest storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 15

Outlook Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130734

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Wednesday.

Synopsis

A CONUS-wide mid-level ridge will remain entrenched across the central US, with a closed mid-level low located on either side of it – one off the Pacific Northwest coast and the other across eastern Canada. A short-wave trough moving through the enhanced mid-level flow will impinge upon the northwest periphery of the US ridge, halting its westward expansion. On the eastern side, a strong short-wave trough will continue digging southeast across New England, helping to carve out a long wave trough across eastern Canada and the northeastern US. This in turn will suppress the US ridge southward along the East Coast, resulting in a northwest-to-southeast ridge axis across the eastern US.

At the surface, a cold front will push south and westward across southern New England toward the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, seasonably cool and dry conditions will prevail, while along and south of this boundary, hot and humid conditions continue.

### Western and Central Montana

Continued enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail across the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Embedded within this flow will be subtle vorticity/speed maxima. Large-scale ascent associated with these features, combined with diurnal heating will support scattered thunderstorms along the higher terrain of southwest Montana. After several days of repeated convection across Montana and in the mid-level lapse-rate source region upstream, uncertainty remains as to the number and intensity of thunderstorms that do develop. Should vigorous convection develop, the overall strength of the mid-level flow when coupled with steep lapse rates would support sporadic strong thunderstorm winds.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, July 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130905 SPC AC 130905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition.

At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner.

That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.

This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Monday, July 13

TORNADO: low

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Tuesday, July 14

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, July 15

ANY SEVERE: low

Thursday, July 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, July 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, July 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, July 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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