Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, May 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140506

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

Synopsis

An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system, shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle height falls extending into the Central Plains.

While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.

KS

An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft, veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail over 2.00" diameter may occur.

Southern High Plains

Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.

Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys

During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 15

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley

West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period, as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening. However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley

Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason, isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 19

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 20

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130857 SPC AC 130857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a shortware trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as flow becomes west-southwesterly over much of the central U.S. In response, moisture advection is forecast to increase over the central U.S. as a pocket of 65 to 70 F dewpoints moves northward into the lower and mid Missouri Valley. A dryline is forecast on the western edge of the moist airmass. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely to initiate to the east of the dryline in the afternoon. Additional storms may form eastward across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over the instability axis, which should support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S. Mid-level flow is expected to become southwesterly over the Great Plains, where model forecasts show a surge of low-level moisture. In response, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s F over much of the north-central U.S. A series of subtle shortwave troughs moving through the Great Plains will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat may develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, along the northern edge of a low-level jet. A potential for supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat is expected.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West, as multiple shortwave impulses move northeastward across the Great Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are forecast to be in place by afternoon. In response, strong instability is expected to develop in parts of the moist airmass. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear associated with the jet will support a potential for severe storms across a broad area from the southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells and bowing line segments with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place ahead of the front, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely developing each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could materialize over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and in the Northeast on Wednesday, adjacent to a mid-level jet passing through. However, uncertainty is substantial at this time concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and cold front.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, May 15

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, May 16

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, May 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 18

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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