Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will continue today across parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also forecast over parts of the northern Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 112000
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS…AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS TO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will continue today across parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also forecast over parts of the northern Plains.
20Z Update
The primary change with this update was trimming higher severe probabilities in the wake of earlier convection that moved through parts of eastern IL, northern IN, and northwestern OH. With that said, a risk of severe wind gusts and hail will persist through some of this corridor – within a relatively narrow zone of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along the southern edge of outflow-modified air. Refer to Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 and MCD 1930 for more information.
Farther east, a well-established MCS is tracking southeastward across southern OH toward northern KY. Over the next few hours, these storms will continue to pose the greatest risk for a swath of damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) as they track southeastward along a gradient of strong surface-based buoyancy amid 40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the well-established gust front. Additionally, a modest enhancement to the low-level shear along the buoyancy gradient/baroclinic zone will continue to support brief mesovortex tornadoes in the near-term. See MCD 1931 for more information.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and only minor changes were made to the outlook.
..Weinman.. 08/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026/
IL/IN/OH
A fast moving and intense bowing MCS is affecting the Chicago metro area this morning with significant severe wind gusts. This activity will race east-southeastward across northern IN and eventually western OH. Increasingly widespread thunderstorms and associated outflow ahead of this complex lends uncertainty to the evolution of the bow, and the corridor of greatest damaging wind potential. Refer to MDs #1921 and #1922 for further details.
OH/WV/KY/VA
Another linear MCS is affecting southeast OH, and will spread across WV and into VA later today. The air mass ahead of this complex is not as unstable, and considerable uncertainty exists regarding this system's longevity. Nevertheless, sufficient flow aloft and mesoscale organization will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts. Refer to MD #1923 for further details.
ND/SD/NE
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft is present today across the Dakotas, with a moist and unstable air mass in place over the Black Hills region. This will likely lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early evening. Supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected. It is unclear how far southeast these storms will maintain intensity, but model guidance suggests at least into central SD before weakening overnight.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111734
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY…AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Illinois/Lower Ohio Valley
Forecast uncertainty remains high for these regions. Morning convection, or lack thereof, will influence the location/magnitude of afternoon severe potential. At least modest southwesterly flow at low levels is expected to continue into Wednesday morning. It is at least plausible that the boundary within Iowa/Illinois remains stationary or makes only modest southward progress. Weak warm advection may promote elevated storms in northern Illinois by mid morning. These storms could produce large hail and isolated wind damage. Into the afternoon, this activity could have a tendency to develop southward into a very moist, destabilizing airmass in the Lower Ohio Valley. Another possibility is the development along the surface boundary during the afternoon. The eastward progress of storms will likely be limited as substantial impact from convection is anticipated from Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-45 kt of effective shear will allow for organized storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. Damaging winds are expected to be the main threat as upscale growth is expected to occur quickly. The 15% Wind/Slight Risk has been adjusted northward and eastward to account for trends in guidance and expected airmass destabilization.
Central Plains
Moist, easterly flow north of a developing surface low in eastern Colorado/western Kansas will allow for moderate to strong destabilization across parts of Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong effective shear will promote supercell development from near the Black Hills to southwestern Nebraska. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible initially. Some intensification of the low-level jet may lead to upscale growth into one or more linear segments moving eastward. The potential for a more organized MCS is not clear given the low-level jet will be focused farther east. Elevated storms associated with the low-level jet core are possible in eastern Nebraska/western Iowa where large hail and isolated wind gusts may occur.
North Dakota into Wisconsin Michigan
Modest destabilization is expected farther north into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Sufficient mid-level flow will be present for organized storms. The main questions will be storm coverage and longevity. Isolated wind damage and large hail would occur with the strongest, sustained storms.
Carolinas/southern Appalachians
Uncertainty in the evolution of early morning convection remains relatively high. While an MCV from convection in the Ohio Valley may impact parts of these regions, the timing of this feature may not lend to an organized severe threat during the afternoon. The Marginal risk will be maintained this outlook cycle for potential isolated strong to severe storms. However, the potential for sufficient airmaass destabilization continues to appear low.
..Wendt.. 08/11/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111932
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.
Central Plains into Middle Ohio Valley
Moderate to strong destabilization near and south of the surface boundary appears possible by the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be stronger with eastern extent, but still mostly along and to the north of the boundary. Given this flow orientation, convection will likely tend to train along the front. Isolated strong gusts and wind damage are the main concern, particularly with any clusters that can develop and move into more buoyant air south of the boundary. Additional storm development is probable as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening, though storms will be more elevated by that point.
Front Range
Moist easterly flow into the higher terrain will promote scattered storm development during the afternoon, perhaps aided by a subtle shortwave perturbation. While cloud cover may temper surface heating, steep mid-level lapse rates will allow for 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will be marginal, but a few strong to marginally severe storms may produce isolated severe winds and hail.
Northeast
Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a mid-level jet crosses over the region on Thursday. Despite long hodographs, drier conditions (50s F dewpoints with perhaps pockets of low 60s F) will limit destabilization along with weak to modest mid-level lapse rates. A few stronger gusts and small hail could occur with the stronger activity, but severe-caliber potential still appears low.
..Wendt.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, August 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, August 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, August 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, August 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, August 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Friday
Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.
D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday
Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.
D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday
Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
..Dean.. 08/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, August 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Wednesday, August 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, August 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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