Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031954
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.
20z update KS, MO IA and IL
Scattered thunderstorm development was ongoing this afternoon ahead of a weak surface low an associated cold front over the MO Valley. To the east, a broad and unstable warm sector exists south of a quasi-stationary front extending into eastern MO and IL. Moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells. Damaging winds and hail remain the most likely near the cold front as it moves eastward with a linear storm modes. A few tornadoes are also possible with more discrete cells and backed surface winds along the warm front farther east. The primary update to the forecast was to remove thunder and severe probabilities behind the cold front, otherwise the severe risk remains as is.
Southern KS, OK and into TX
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon and evening along the advancing cold front from southern KS, across much of OK and ahead of a dryline into west-central TX. South of the primary upper trough and stronger flow aloft, overall forcing will be weaker. Still, forecast soundings and observation trends show moderate destabilization and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells and organized clusters/line segments. Hail (some 2+ in) is possible with initial supercells before upscale growth is expected to take place with the surging cold front.
A locally more favorable zone for large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two may develop across parts of central and southern OK if semi discrete supercells or stronger bowing structures can become organized/maintained this afternoon/evening.
OH Valley
A moist and unstable air mass will support scattered thunderstorms across the OH valley this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with multi-cell storms/clusters amid modest vertical shear. Storms should weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
..Lyons.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
MO/IA/IL
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region, with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the most intense cells.
MO/KS/OK/TX
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also possible.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts and potential for a couple of tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031745
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA…NORTHERN KENTUCKY…MUCH OF OHIO…SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN…WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK
CORRECTED FOR WORDING AND TYPOS
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts and potential for a couple of tornadoes.
Discussion
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley. In response to these developments, an initially modest surface cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon, with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains, into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast vicinity by early Sunday.
Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may remain entrenched across much of New England through this period, while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region remains unclear.
Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) air mass within the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, Saturday afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support for ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate pre-frontal outflow.
Although the signal in model output is not particularly strong, it appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the leading outflow boundary while overspreading southeastern Lower Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley by early afternoon. As this occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric shear beneath south to southwesterly wind fields strengthening to 40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer will be more than sufficient to support organization and increasing risk for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat likely will persist as activity overspreads much of the remainder of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into Saturday evening.
### Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible that this could support re-intensification of convection that could become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
### SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts.
Discussion
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.
Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula by late Sunday afternoon.
Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030821 SPC AC 030821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030821 SPC AC 030821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030821 SPC AC 030821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030821 SPC AC 030821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, April 6 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, April 7 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, April 8 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, April 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, April 10 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030821 SPC AC 030821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6
From Monday to Wednesday, a relatively dry and cool airmass is forecast to settle in across the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm potential will be low over most of the nation.
Thursday/Day 7 to Friday/Day 8
A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to move eastward in the western Atlantic by Thursday, as moisture return takes place into the south-central states. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the day from the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A chance for thunderstorms will continue into Friday over the same general area as moisture advection continues. An isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but the confidence in the spatial distribution regarding any potential threat is low at this time.
..Broyles.. 04/03/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 3
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Saturday, April 4
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, April 6
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, April 7
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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