Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, September 7
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070555
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains and central High Plains.
### Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley…
Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the Dakotas.
On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the primary short-wave trough.
The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large hail and tornado threat.
A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear possible.
Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND. While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail.
### Central Gulf Coast
A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Tuesday, September 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070513
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Central Plains to Upper Midwest
An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile, a surface low over Manitoba will lift northeast through the early Wednesday. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward across the Upper Midwest, with the southern extent of the boundary stalling over southern NE. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting pockets of weak to moderate instability.
Most forecast guidance depicts ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday morning across parts of MN/WI within a warm advection regime. This activity could pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts. Early day thunderstorms could impact airmass recovery and destabilization for afternoon/evening severe potential ahead of the advancing cold front. If sufficient recovery occurs, another round of severe potential could develop from southeast MN into WI and the MI Upper Peninsula. Otherwise, severe potential will increase during the evening with southward extent ahead of the front across IA/eastern NE and perhaps northern KS. While vertical shear will lessen with southward extent, initial cells will likely develop into line segments along the front. An initial risk of hail and strong gusts will transition to mainly a damaging wind risk as storm mode becomes more linear.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Wednesday, September 9
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070635
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest on Wednesday.
Midwest
An upper trough will progress eastward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold front will shift southeast through the period, becoming positioned from the Upper Ohio Valley to the TX Panhandle by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, but pockets of weak to moderate instability are forecast, particularly across the Lower MO Valley into OH. Morning showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold front from Iowa into Lower MI. As the front progresses southeast through the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorm development is expected across the destabilizing warm sector.
Deep-layer flow is expected to largely remain parallel to the surface boundary. This environment should largely favor a more linear storm mode and convection could become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized convection and damaging winds appear possible within corridors of greater instability into Wednesday evening/early Thursday.
..Leitman.. 09/07/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Thursday, September 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, September 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, September 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, September 13
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, September 9 | low / uncertain |
| Day 5 | Thursday, September 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, September 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, September 12 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, September 13 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060749 SPC AC 060749
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the north of better instability.
Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day 6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe potential increase.
..Leitman.. 09/06/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, September 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, September 8
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, September 9
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, September 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, September 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, September 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, September 13
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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