Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261610

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.

Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These features will provide support for one or more focused areas of thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and the Lake Michigan vicinity.

Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys

Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN. Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.

This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.

NE/SD/IA

A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL

Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts.

Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds possible.

Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity

High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening into mid/late evening.

..Leitman.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona.

Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys

Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity.

Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH.

Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases.

Central High Plains

Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO.

Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds.

Southeast Arizona

Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows.

..Jewell.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas.

### Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.

### Northern and Central High Plains

Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, August 2

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260832 SPC AC 260832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wednesday

The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the Mid-Atlantic.

A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains, as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.

### Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday

The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected. Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however, some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent forecasts.

### Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday

There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that could be the source of severe storm development in those areas Sunday afternoon into night.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 26

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Monday, July 27

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Tuesday, July 28

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, July 29

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Thursday, July 30

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, July 31

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, August 1

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, August 2

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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