Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Friday, October 9

Outlook Summary

With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091956

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA…SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

### SUMMARY

With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

20Z Update

The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2349 and Tornado Watch #677.

..Weinman.. 10/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/

Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia

Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle, far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e., 0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this afternoon into tonight.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, October 10

Outlook Summary

The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday evening.

Discussion

Models continue to indicate consolidation of a number of short wave perturbations into highly amplified larger-scale mid/upper troughing across much of the Pacific Coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night. It appears that this will include digging troughing within the initially stronger branch of mid-latitude westerlies along the northern U.S. Pacific coast, and consolidating troughing in a separate weaker branch across the southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific into southern California/northern Baja. Near the leading edge of this latter regime, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel may accelerate inland into the southern California Sonoran Desert vicinity by 12Z Sunday.

Downstream flow is forecast to remain split, with broad mid/upper ridging forecast to generally continue to build within the stronger northern branch, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the weaker southern branch, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of Isaias, and associated upper troughing are forecast to begin gradually turning northward and northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

Southeast

As the sheared remnants of Isaias progress further inland, the low-level circulation center is expected to eventually undergo a period of more rapid weakening. After curving north-northwestward into/through a drier/more stable environment across central Alabama, it is forecast to slowly accelerate northward/northeastward toward the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night. However, there remains rather sizable spread within/among the various model output concerning this and related developments, which will considerably impact any continuing risk for tornadoes.

In general, it appears that a broad lingering belt of moderate southerly low-level flow (perhaps with embedded stronger corridors) will support a moistening sector to the east/southeast of the center, on the modifying southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal areas. This likely will include the return seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, with dew points increasing into the 70s F, which may support CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg to the east of the remnant mid-level warm core.

As the upstream mid/upper troughing slowly pivots toward this environment, intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable through the afternoon into evening, mainly across Georgia and northern Florida into parts of the Carolinas. As this occurs, lingering enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs and developing near-surface buoyancy may become conducive to widely scattered low-topped supercells with potential to produce tornadoes. ### Lower Colorado Valley vicinity

Strengthening wind fields associated with the approaching tropical system, coupled with the potential for an influx of high boundary-layer moisture content off the Gulf of California, probably supports at least a conditional risk for a tornado or two late Saturday night or early Sunday, if conditions come together favorably. At this point, given model spread, this potential still seems rather low.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms on Sunday may impact parts of the Mid Atlantic, and the lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 091930

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO EASTERN GREAT BASIN

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms on Sunday may impact parts of the Mid Atlantic, and the lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

Discussion

Models indicate further consolidation of troughing within initially separate branches of the westerlies, with slow progression inland of the Pacific coast Sunday through Sunday night. Within southerly flow ahead of the evolving large-scale trough axis, remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel are forecast to rapidly advect from the southeastern California Sonoran Desert toward the western slopes of the Wasatch through the day Sunday. As downstream mid/upper ridging builds through the southeastern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that an upper trough and remnant mid-level cyclonic circulation will be forced east-northeastward across the Appalachians through Mid Atlantic. Associated forcing for ascent may support modest secondary surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Blue Ridge, southeast of the weakening remnants of Isaias across the Cumberland/Allegheny Plateau vicinity, and in the wake of weakening surface ridging shifting offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard.

Spread among the models remains substantive concerning the shorter wavelength perturbations, but a couple areas with at least some potential for severe thunderstorm development are evident.

Mid Atlantic

Given the seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting northward toward the Mid Atlantic in advance of the developing surface low, there appears potential for boundary-layer destabilization coincident with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. Models suggest that a developing mid-level dry slot could provide a focus for the most substantive boundary-layer destabilization by late Sunday afternoon across parts of eastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina, where insolation prior to the onset of mid-level ascent/cooling may support a period of vigorous thunderstorm development. It appears that this could include supercell structures within an evolving broken line of storms, which may pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

Lower Colorado Valley into eastern Great Basin

Boundary-layer destabilization and convective potential is more unclear along the forecast track of Rachel for Sunday. However, given the development of sufficient instability, the remnant strong south-southwesterly wind fields could provide support for organized convection, including supercell structures, posing at least a risk for damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, October 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, October 9

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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