Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, February 17
Outlook Summary
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 171255
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.
Western States/Coastal California
A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm potential is currently expected to remain low.
Upper Midwest
Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an eastward-accelerating cold front.
Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail with this elevated activity.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Wednesday, February 18
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to remain generally weak.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170549
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for thunderstorm development may evolve across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to remain generally weak.
Discussion
Notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic regime evolving inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.
In general, one initial perturbation and associated surface troughing, pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to undergo substantive weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to support continuing convective development capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity into the day Wednesday. This seems likely to remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little risk for severe weather before diminishing.
Upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada, as another digs toward the Oregon/northern California coast. Beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak destabilization supportive of convective development across the eastern Great Basin through the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming during the day. It doesn't seem entirely out of the question that some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning, particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above freezing. However, this probably will remain very sparse in coverage. Otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger near Pacific coastal areas, mainly from Oregon into and just south of San Francisco Bay.
It does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the West will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday through Wednesday night. However, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer, across and east of the southern Great Plains is forecast to maintain a pronounced westerly component through the period. Modest inland moisture return off a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer appears likely to remain focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast, around the western periphery of low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the western Atlantic. It is possible that a weak mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, and/or low-level warm advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, could support weak thunderstorm development Wednesday night. But, probabilities appear near or below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the present time.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, February 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 170831
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN INDIANA…WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY…AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.
Discussion
Considerable spread persists within latest model output concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In general, though, guidance indicates that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. The center of a subtropical high is likely to shift from the Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of the Southeast.
One or two short wave perturbations emerging from the Intermountain West may be in the process of progressing into and across the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity at the outset of the period. The lower amplitude lead perturbation may continue into and across the Ohio Valley during the day, as the stronger upstream perturbation pivots across the mid to lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region. This appears a bit to the north, and at somewhat lower amplitudes, than what prior runs of at least some model output has been indicating. However, this is still likely to be accompanied by a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, which may undergo one or two periods of additional deepening while migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.
Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley
Latest model output continues to indicate better low-level moisture return (but still marginal for severe convective development) to portions of the warm sector of the developing cyclone as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley Thursday afternoon. It appears that this may include a corridor of mid 50s to near 60F surface dew points advecting northeast and east of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. However, it now appears that much of this moistening may occur beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, associated with subsidence to the south of the upper jet axis.
This is not reflected in the latest RRFS forecast soundings, which indicate rather potent thermodynamic profiles evolving by Thursday afternoon across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity, in terms of both conditional and convective instability. A general consensus of other model output suggests the development of much more modest CAPE. This includes NAM forecast soundings, which depict CAPE at or below 500 J/kg where the low-level moistening occurs, mostly due to low equilibrium levels below the 500 mb level. It remains unclear if this environment will become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning.
Even so, NAM forecast soundings still depict boundary-layer based CAPE supportive of low-topped convection which could acquire supercellular structure in the presence of strong cloud bearing shear. Aided by the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, and a relatively moist boundary-layer with steep lapse rates, a few tornadoes appear possible, in addition to small to marginally severe hail. The evolution of a small organizing cluster may still not be out of the question, which probably would be accompanied by better potential for damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Friday, February 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, February 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, February 22
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, February 23
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, February 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, February 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, February 21 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, February 22 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, February 23 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, February 24 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
DISCUSSION
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.
Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.
Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.
..Kerr.. 02/17/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, February 17
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, February 18
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Thursday, February 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, February 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, February 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, February 22
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, February 23
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, February 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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