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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 032000

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.

Northern/central Plains

Only minor changes to the outlook. Thunderstorm development is underway from north central SD into central ND along a surface front/differential heating zone, and in advance of an embedded mid-upper speed max. Surface temperatures of 75-80 F with dewpoints of 58-64 F are driving MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, while deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells initially. Low-level shear and hodograph curvature will be large enough for a few tornadoes with the initial supercells, along with isolated very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Upscale growth into line segments is expected by this evening, with an attendant increase in the threat for severe outflow gusts, prior to the storms moving east of the primary buoyancy corridor.

Farther south, vertical shear is weaker and storms will tend more toward multicell clusters with some transient supercell structures capable of producing sporadic downbursts and large hail. Other storm clustering is expected toward southwest KS, to the immediate east of an MCV.

..Thompson.. 06/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/

Northern Plains

Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave.

The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall tornado risk within this corridor.

Central/Southern High Plains

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper than areas farther south.

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Outlook for Thursday, June 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Synopsis

Several weak mid-level perturbations will exist within mostly zonal flow across the northern CONUS on Thursday with weak ridging across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will result in stable conditions across much of the eastern CONUS with weak lee troughing across the central High Plains.

Northern and Central Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Rockies on Thursday morning will cross into the Plains by the afternoon. As this occurs, moderate mid-level flow and weak height falls will overspread a moderately unstable environment across the Plains. As a surface low moves slowly southeast from eastern Wyoming into northeast Colorado during the day, upslope flow will strengthen to its north. Initial storms within this upslope flow regime will likely be supercellular given 40 to 50 knots of shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with weak low-level shear. Some tornado threat may exist within this zone along the front where low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced. However, this more favorable region should be localized and conditional on a storm in the right location.

Additional storms may exist farther east along the front where moderate instability and weak to moderate shear exists. Large hail will be the initial threat, however, as storms from this area and storms from the west congeal into the evening, a greater severe wind threat is expected to materialize.

Central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and vicinity

Guidance has recently trended stronger with mid-level flow across Kansas and southern Nebraska. As a result, sufficient shear may exist for multicellular/marginal supercell storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. The Marginal risk has been expanded across Kansas and into far northern Oklahoma to reflect this threat.

Upper Midwest

Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop across portions of Minnesota into northern Wisconsin south of a frontal zone. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected to overspread this region with weak height falls through the day. The primary limiting factor to a greater severe threat will be modest lapse rates and cloud cover. Multicells and occasional supercells will be possible within this region with a primary threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 031921

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA…SOUTHERN MINNESOTA…AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains.

Synopsis

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains to the Midwest on Friday with a 50 knot jet streak on it's southern periphery. A cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central Plains. Strong to severe storms are expected along this boundary on Friday and Friday night.

Upper Midwest into the Central Plains

Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing from northeast Kansas to southern Wisconsin on Friday morning within a region of moderate isentropic ascent. This activity will likely be mostly sub-severe given relatively weak instability. As the low-level jet weakens during the morning, expect ongoing convection to weaken. In the wake of these morning storms, strong instability is anticipated amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and very step lapse rates. As the mid-level trough approaches, mid-level flow will strengthen. In addition, forecast soundings show significant lifting of the cap between 18Z and 23Z which should result in eventual storm development along the front during the afternoon/early evening. Strong instability and moderate to strong shear will support the potential for supercells, including the potential for large to very large hail. Additionally, as the low-level jet strengthens Friday evening, a tornado threat may materialize, conditional on supercell storm mode in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 3

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, June 4

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Friday, June 5

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, June 6

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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