Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, and parts of southern New York into the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011628

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, and parts of southern New York into the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

Mid-Atlantic/Southern New York

A mid/upper-level anticyclone will remain centered over the TN Valley/Mid-South today, with a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move eastward across Ontario through the period. In between these features, a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly flow will exist across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Latest surface observations show a front draped from northwest to southeast across southern NY/New England, with cloud cover and precipitation ongoing across these areas. Current expectations are for destabilization to occur along/south of the front through the afternoon, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present across MI (reference 12Z observed APX/DTX soundings) forecast to advect southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop by mid afternoon across PA/NJ, with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding overall convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening owing to nebulous large-scale ascent, most high-resolution guidance develops isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along/south of the front, particularly over eastern PA into NJ and vicinity. Supercells with a severe hail/wind threat will be possible initially, and enough low-level shear may exist near the front for a tornado or two as well. Whether convection can grow upscale into one or more clusters also remains uncertain. But if this occurs, then the threat for damaging winds may increase late this afternoon into the evening given the rather favorable environment forecast.

Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes

A mid-level shortwave trough over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains this morning will translate northeastward today over the northern/central Plains. A moist and unstable airmass will reside along/south of a front forecast to extend generally west to east across parts of southern SD/northern NE into southern MN/northern IA. Robust thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely by 21-23Z across north-central NE as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this region show up to 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, which will likely support supercells initially. With steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid levels depicted, some potential for 2+ inch hail may exist with these supercells. A tornado or two also appears possible as low-level shear gradually increases after 02/00Z. With time, a bowing cluster is expected to develop across eastern SD/northeast NE this evening, and subsequently track eastward across southern MN/northern IA with a severe/damaging wind threat overnight. Some risk for damaging winds and hail may continue into early Wednesday morning across parts of WI and Lower MI as well.

Coastal Southeast Texas/Southwest Louisiana

Tropical Storm Edouard will continue tracking northwestward today, per latest NHC forecasts. Some enhancement to the low-level wind field and hodograph is noted on the latest VWP and 15Z special observed sounding from KLCH. This may support transient updraft rotation with any cells on the north to northeast side of Edouard's circulation, and a brief tornado or two may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of coastal southeast TX/southwest LA as filtered diurnal heating supports modest destabilization.

..Gleason/Moore.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 2

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Widely scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Widely scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night.

Synopsis

A belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level winds will spread from the Great Lakes into the Northeast in tandem with a series of low-amplitude disturbances. Elsewhere, a negatively tilted shortwave trough and attending mid-level jet streak will progress through the northern Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, the primary baroclinic zone is expected to extend from low pressure over James Bay through the Great Lakes and mid MO Valley into the northern High Plains. A backdoor front/quasi-stationary boundary will reside over the Mid-Atlantic, the specific location of which will be dictated by the extent of outflow associated with early-day storms and the strength of low-level ridging stretching from the Gulf of St. Lawrence through the Northeast.

### Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic

As alluded to in the synopsis, thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday from portions of WI and MI into NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent associated with a lead short-wave trough. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or damaging winds as they spread east-southeast through the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. In the wake of the early-day convection, prevailing west-northwest mid-level flow will maintain a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (e.g., 7 C/km) atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, yielding MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg by afternoon from lower MI into western parts of NY and PA.

Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon from lower MI through the lower Great Lakes, aided by weak disturbances aloft and the moderate to strong instability forecast across the warm sector. The presence of 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will support organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail potentially approaching two inches and damaging wind gusts into Wednesday night. Tornado potential will be conditional on storm mode; however, the models do indicate stronger low-level winds and resultant larger SRH developing from southwest ON into NY and PA Wednesday afternoon into evening, where the greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist.

### Northern Rockies into northern High Plains

The presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and forcing for ascent attendant to the short-wave trough are expected to foster an increase in thunderstorms over western MT Wednesday afternoon amidst a kinematic environment featuring around 30 kt of southerly deep-layer shear. NAM and RAP-based forecast soundings indicate the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will enhance severe-wind-gust potential, especially as storms merge into clusters. Given the strength of the short-wave trough and consistent model signal for scattered storms in a favorable thermodynamic environment, an upgrade to level-2/Slight Risk was included in this forecast.

Additional storms appear possible across portions of eastern MT into western ND Wednesday evening within a zone of warm advection along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear to be the primary hazard with those storms.

### Mid MO Valley into IA and southern MN

Neutral to slight mid-level height rises are forecast across the region Wednesday afternoon into night with the nebulous forcing for ascent leading to uncertainty in whether storms will develop near the surface boundary. As such, no severe weather probabilities will be included in this forecast, despite a favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and sufficient vertical shear.

..Mead.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Summary

At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 010720

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

Synopsis

Upper ridging will persist across the Mid-MS Valley and points east, with multiple mid-level perturbations expected to crest the upper ridge from the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Thursday. Currently, the best chance for severe storms will be with the primary impulse over the Mid-Atlantic, as stronger flow aloft overspreads a moist boundary layer. A couple of severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out farther northwest across the Upper MS Valley, where rich low-level moisture will be coincident with a diffuse warm frontal boundary.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline

Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a modest mid-level impulse will overspread the Mid-Atlantic, contributing to some forcing for ascent and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Despite only 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the eastern OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline on a widespread basis. While upper support may be weaker compared to the previous day, multiple days of preceding storms should leave behind a lingering baroclinic boundary somewhere around the Mid-Atlantic, which may act as a forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, supercells and bowing segments may occur, capable of producing mainly a severe gust threat, though a couple instances of severe hail may occur.

Some guidance suggests that the best buoyancy/shear parameter space for severe may situate over eastern PA into NJ. However, it is unclear how previous day's storms will impact the boundary layer over this region by Day 3/Thursday, so Slight Risk probabilities were introduced conservatively, with some latitude given to the northern extent of the Marginal Risk probabilities. If the more aggressive guidance holds true and convective overturning does not dominate this region, higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.

Portions of the Upper MS Valley to the Midwest

Convective initiation is more uncertain across portions of the Midwest to the Upper MS Valley, where a northwestward arching warm front will be located. Here, surface dewpoints should reach the mid 70s F beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. While several calibrated ML/AI guidance members depict higher severe probabilities across this region, only Marginal risk probabilities have been introduced since the mid-level impulses poised to track along this boundary are quite small and subtle, rendering storm coverage highly questionable. Nonetheless, if a storm can mature and become sustained, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear with the strong instability may support a supercell or two capable of mainly severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010828 SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander from the Mid-MS and TN Valleys toward the Plains through the extended period, with upper troughs poised to amplify along the East Coast and over the Interior West. Multiple mid-level impulses will traverse this flow pattern, translating from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, then the Mid-Atlantic. It is in this elongated, roughly zonal corridor that thunderstorm potential will be highest.

The severe threat with the relatively highest degree of predictability will be across the Mid-Atlantic Days 4-5 (Friday and Saturday). On Friday, a diffuse differential heating boundary, generated by thunderstorm clusters from previous days, will likely become established somewhere across the southern Mid-Atlantic. As an upper trough amplifies over this differential heating boundary, thunderstorms should develop amid rich low-level moisture beneath stronger flow aloft. The more organized storms may produce damaging wind gusts (hence the maintenance of 15 percent severe probabilities). Calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist into Saturday across the Carolina Piedmont. However, deterministic guidance shows the upper trough advancing further into the Atlantic this weekend, along with upper support. As such, storm coverage and initiation mechanisms for Saturday remain too unclear this far in advance for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

Amplification of the Interior West upper trough will support surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture advection across the Plains states. While at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur any where from the northern/central High Plains toward the Upper MS Valley, predictability of any severe potential is too low this far out.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 1

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, September 2

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Thursday, September 3

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, September 4

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, September 5

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, September 6

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, September 7

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, September 8

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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