Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 26
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261629
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
Texas
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
Upper Midwest
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Northern Rockies/High Plains
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and perhaps some hail.
Ohio Valley/Southeast
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary. For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential can be delineated.
Northern Maine
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261658
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
### SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.
Mid Atlantic Region
A strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across Ontario on Wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring over much of the northeast states. At the surface, the primary surface boundary will extend from southern OH across WV/MD into VA/DE. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms from eastern KY to the coast. Storms will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. This would support a risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher terrain of western NC with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.
TX Panhandle
A shortwave trough currently over eastern NM will continue to rotate northward across the Plains on Wednesday, with the upper thermal trough present over eastern CO/western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles. A convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across the northern TX panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating occurring to the south of front. This should provide sufficient destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of multicell storms capable of large hail.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 28
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 261851
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
Synopsis
A broad upper ridge will be present on Thursday over the central U.S., with an upper low over CA and an upper trough over the northeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the southeast, southern and central Plains, and northwest regions.
OR/WA/ID/MT
One area of concern for the potential of severe storms will be across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest states. Models depict one or more shortwave troughs rotating around the CA upper low, providing ascent and strengthening wind fields across parts of eastern OR/WA, northern ID, and western MT. Confidence is rising that a zone of sufficient instability/shear will develop to support strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds appear possible with the strongest storms.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 1
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 2
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 31 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, June 1 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, June 2 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
DISCUSSION
An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.
..Jewell.. 05/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 26
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 27
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, May 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, May 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, June 1
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, June 2
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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