Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, August 24
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening across eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota, as well as central South Dakota and western Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250100
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening across eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota, as well as central South Dakota and western Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and central High Plains
Scattered severe thunderstorms including a few supercells will continue across central South Dakota into northern Nebraska, and possibly west-central Nebraska within a zone of 60s F surface dewpoints and moderate instability ahead of a front and near a southward-extending pre-frontal trough. Large hail and damaging winds will remain possible this evening as storms persist southeastward.
Somewhat richer low-level moisture exists ahead of the front across north-central/northeast South Dakota into eastern North Dakota where scattered severe storms continue this evening. 00z observed soundings from Aberdeen and Bismarck sampled effective shear around 40 kt with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates. Supercells will remain possible in the short-term, but a modest degree of upscale growth may occur as storms further cluster and progress southeastward with continued hail/wind potential at least through the evening.
Northern Great Basin/north-central Rockies
A few stronger storms capable of gusty/potentially severe-caliber wind gusts will remain a possibility over the next hour or two this evening, with storm updraft/downdraft intensity expected to diminish thereafter.
..Guyer.. 08/25/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Tuesday, August 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241709
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow (Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Synopsis
Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS Valley.
Portions of the central Plains
Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day, with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected (given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle.
Parts of the Upper MS Valley
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode, accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards.
Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast
Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet microbursts capable of producing wind damage.
..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, August 26
Outlook Summary
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241930
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY…AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions.
Synopsis
An upper ridge will stagnate over the western and central CONUS through Wednesday, with an upper trough expected to progress over eastern Canada, resulting in a broad northwesterly upper-air regime with surface troughing over the MS Valley and Midwest. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will overspread portions of the High Plains, as well as the Great Lakes and portions of the Lower MS Valley, aiding in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
Central and Southern High Plains
Another day of moist upslope low-level flow is expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where orographic lift will support convective initiation by mid afternoon. 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northwestward beneath mid-level lapse rates of at least 8 C/km, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear should remain rather modest, but given modestly elongated hodographs, over 30 kts of effective bulk shear is likely in spots, which will support at least transient supercells. Isolated instances of severe wind and hail are the primary threats. If greater storm coverage and/or shear becomes apparent, a Slight Risk upgrade may be needed in future outlooks.
Great Lakes into the OH Valley
A wedge of 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeast ahead of the approaching surface trough, beneath 6-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorm initiation should take place along/ahead of the surface trough as surface temperatures rise into the mid 70s F by afternoon. Modest veering and strengthening of the flow with height will encourage over 35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs with some curvature and elongation. Multicells, line segments, and supercells are the expected storm mode, with severe wind/hail the primary concerns. At the moment, expected limited storm coverage precludes Slight risk probabilities.
Lower MS Valley
Thunderstorm development is expected Wednesday afternoon with the heating of a very moist boundary layer, characterized by mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Some organization into multicellular complexes is possible given modest vertical speed shear as the region is grazed by the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow. MLCAPE will likely reach 2000-3000 J/kg supporting wet downbursts with damaging gust potential.
..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 27
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, August 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 31
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, August 27 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, August 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, August 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, August 30 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, August 31 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.
D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains
Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Bentley.. 08/24/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, August 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, August 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, August 26
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, August 27
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, August 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, August 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, August 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, August 31
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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