Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, May 5
Outlook Summary
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051946
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE
### SUMMARY
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.
20z Update
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent 18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR; however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5% wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional details.
..Moore.. 05/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/
Northeast TX into the Mid-South
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks.
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.
Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before storms weaken late.
Lower Great Lakes into northern New England
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.
Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Wednesday, May 6
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from Texas into Georgia.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051745
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA ARCROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from Texas into Georgia.
Synopsis
Strong mid to high level winds will intensify across the MS/OH/TN Valleys on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves out of the Plains. Midlevel winds up to 50 kt will extend as far south as the Gulf Coast, with 70+ kt sweeping across the TN Valley to the Appalachians late.
At the surface, a cold front will extend from central TX into northern MS and AL by 00Z, with a very moist air mass ahead of it. Dewpoints in the 70s F will be common from TX into MS, with mid 60s F into western GA by evening. Instability will be greatest from TX into MS during the day, but will develop eastward across AL and into western GA due to persistent west/southwest winds in the low levels.
The expansive area of strong deep-layer shear atop the very moist air mass will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms beginning late afternoon and spreading during the evening and overnight. Corridors of tornado and wind damage potential appear likely, with hail from TX into LA/MS.
Eastern TX across much of the Southeast
Early day storms are possible across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA, possibly elevated due to and e-w outflow. A marginal wind threat cannot be ruled out at that time.
The primary severe risk will develop during the late afternoon after 21Z and into the early evening, as instability builds. Supercells may develop along and ahead of the cold front. The deep moist layer combined with strong mid and high level flow should support supercell mode with minimal cold downdraft initially. The severe risk may persist during the evening into GA as the southwesterly low-level jet brings instability into that area. Corridors of damaging winds may evolve as well, especially along the cold front late as storms become more numerous.
Farther west into TX, supercells producing hail and locally damaging gusts are also likely near the front.
..Jewell.. 05/05/2026
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, May 7
Outlook Summary
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 051914
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
### SUMMARY
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
Synopsis
A strong upper-level speed max will move across the Southeast to Mid Atlantic Thursday as the parent upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A cold front will extend roughly from the central Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast by late afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it.
Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across much of this region ahead of the cold front, within the 850 mb theta-e plume. A few strong gusts will be possible. Thereafter, the rapid progression of the upper trough will foster midlevel drying, with veering low-level winds. As such, the greatest potential for a few strong storms appear to be from morning through midday prior to the front moving offshore. Forecast soundings show very strong deep-layer shear, but also increasing midlevel subsidence which may counteract additional late afternoon development. Any additional late day development should be quite isolated and marginal in nature.
..Jewell.. 05/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, May 8
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 9
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, May 10
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 11
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 12
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Friday, May 8 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Saturday, May 9 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Sunday, May 10 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Monday, May 11 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Tuesday, May 12 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
DISCUSSION
Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, May 5
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, May 6
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, May 7
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Friday, May 8
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, May 9
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, May 10
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, May 11
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, May 12
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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