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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening over parts of southern New England, and from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts (including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070102

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY…MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening over parts of southern New England, and from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts (including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern High Plains.

New England

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from New Jersey northeastward into southern New England. This line is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward through the central Appalachians. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across southern New England are in the lower to mid 60s F, and the RAP is analyzing MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWPs at both New York and Boston have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 35 knots of flow 1 km above the surface. This environment, along with steep low-level lapse rates, evident on forecast soundings will be favorable for severe wind gusts as the line moves eastward across southern New England this evening.

Further north across the remainder of New England, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. These storms are located in the vicinity of an instability maximum, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is present which should support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail.

Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley

The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is located from far northern Indiana eastward to near Lake Erie. To the south of the front, dewpoints are mostly in the lower 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and to the south of the instability axis. The strongest deep-layer shear is analyzed from Ohio into southern Pennsylvania, which should be the favored corridor for supercell development. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with supercells. Multicells will also be capable of strong to severe gusts.

Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, a few strong to severe storms will be possible near a pocket of moderate instability. Steep low-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible.

Northern High Plains

Over the northern High Plains, water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward through the flow. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is located across eastern Montana and western North Dakota, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Over this area, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening. The storms will move northeastward across northeastern Montana and far northwestern North Dakota.

Forecast soundings to the northwest of Williston have 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 9 C/km. This will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant storms. In addition, low-level lapse rates will be very steep supporting severe wind gusts. A few gusts above 75 mph will be possible, especially if a cold pool can organize.

Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex

A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor imagery over northwest Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass in place from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger instability along the I-35 corridor from the northern Texas Hill Country into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro. Steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated wind-damage and hail threat for a couple more hours this evening.

Further east into the Ark-La-Tex, scattered storms are ongoing from far eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas. These storms are located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings near Fort Smith early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will exist. The tornado threat should persist for a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061734

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.

Northern Plains

A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains, ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern WY late in the day.

Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface trough from western ND to the Black Hills.

Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail may occur as well.

With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface behind the activity.

Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO

A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible.

Southeast VA into far northeast NC

A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern Plains near the Canadian border into Tuesday morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061929

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS LATE

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern Plains near the Canadian border into Tuesday morning.

Synopsis

On Monday, a shortwave trough will continue moving north across central Canada, with height rises across the Plains during the day. Scattered early day thunderstorms are expected to diminish across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley as subsidence occurs aloft.

During the afternoon, a lee trough is forecast to redevelop from eastern WY into CO and toward the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer. Moisture will be more limited, but late-developing southeast surface winds will eventually bring higher dewpoints westward toward the surface trough.

Central Plains

Storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening over eastern CO, with more isolated activity along the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer shear near 35 kt as well as increasing 850 mb winds may support a few clusters of storms persisting into western NE and KS through the evening as well. Locally damaging wind gusts appear most probable.

Far northeast MT…Northern ND…Northwest MN

A warm front will develop and surge northward late Monday night into Tuesday morning, close to the Canadian border by 12Z. This will occur ahead of a developing shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE will be possible, as a 40 kt southerly low-level jet brings moisture northward. Lapse rates aloft will be steep, and may favor isolated hail.

Mid MS/OH Valleys

A slow-moving midlevel wave is likely to be located over the Mid MS to OH Valley, where a very moist air mass will exist. Scattered thunderstorms are likely with this feature, which may also be accompanied by stronger low-level shear on the mesoscale. However, predictability for this feature is low this far out in time.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060843 SPC AC 060843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Tuesday

Latest model guidance remains in good agreement in depicting the progression of a short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks into the northern High Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, with downstream height falls overspreading the Dakotas. At the surface, a lee cyclone over eastern MT Tuesday afternoon is expected to develop north-northeast through western ND, while a trailing cold front edges east into the western Dakotas.

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, supporting vigorous thunderstorm development by late afternoon into evening as the mid-level height falls overspread the region. Strengthening vertical shear with the arrival of the jet streaks will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize across central ND during the evening hours as low-level shear strengths in response to an intensifying low-level jet.

### Day5/Wednesday

The ensembles depict the elongation of a prominent, western U.S. trough into the northern Plains, with an associated jet extension stretching into the upper MS Valley. That notion is confirmed by the majority of deterministic models, which indicate a significant short-wave trough and associated mid/upper-level jets moving through the northern and central Plains. At the surface, there is good agreement between the deterministic models and ensemble member clustering that the primary surface low initially over central SD Wednesday morning will develop north-northeast through the ND-MN Red River Valley into southeast Manitoba, while a trailing cold front advances through the eastern Dakotas into the upper MS Valley, mid MO Valley, and central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector by mid afternoon, with initial thunderstorm development anticipated along the front from the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Subsequent storm initiation appears likely southwestward along the front through the mid MO Valley into the central Plains. While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes. All severe-weather hazards are possible, with that threat quickly spreading through the upper MS Valley into the upper Midwest Wednesday evening into night.

Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with current trends, a 30% unconditional probability contour may be included in the next forecast update.

### Day 6/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a belt of unseasonably strong mid-level flow stretching from the northern or central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over northwest Ontario with a trailing cold front stretching from the upper Midwest through the mid MS Valley into southern Plains.

While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be weaker than in previous days, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within the warm sector. Strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from the upper Midwest into Great Lakes southwest into the OH and mid MS Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. The models suggest that the strongest deep-layer shear may lag the surface warm sector to the immediate west, which casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, no area will be delineated in this forecast.

### Days 7-8/Friday and Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions suggest a gradual deamplification of the north-central CONUS trough, with a belt of stronger mid-level flow stretching from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is considerable variability in the position of any relevant frontal systems that might focus strong to severe storm development.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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---

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, June 6

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, June 7

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Monday, June 8

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Tuesday, June 9

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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