Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, July 7

Wednesday, July 8

Thursday, July 9

Friday, July 10

Saturday, July 11

Sunday, July 12

Monday, July 13

Tuesday, July 14

Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts potentially above 75 mph, and isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening into the early overnight period.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080057

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts potentially above 75 mph, and isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening into the early overnight period.

Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley

At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains this evening. At the surface, a low will move eastward into eastern South Dakota as a cold front advances southward across central and southern South Dakota. The front will provide a focus for convective development this evening, although scattered storms are also expected across parts of the post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints over most of South Dakota are in the 60s F, with lower to mid 70s F over south-central Minnesota. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 2500 J/kg near Rapid City to just above 3500 J/kg in far eastern South Dakota. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong to severe storms will develop near the instability axis early this evening and grow upscale, tracking eastward across eastern South Dakota into south-central Minnesota. Within this corridor, moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for a severe threat…see MCD 1536. Any short line segment that can become organized will likely be capable of severe wind gusts and hail. There will be potential for wind gusts above 75 mph with any line segment that can become robust.

Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from near Rapid City northwestward into southeastern Montana. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to develop this evening and move southeastward along this axis of instability. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. As convective coverage increases, a potential for severe wind gusts is also expected with any short line segment that can become intense…see MCD 1535.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Summary

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071636

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

MN…WI…IA

As the tail end of a shortwave trough sweeps across the region, storms will likely be ongoing Wed morning near and north of a quasi-stationary front extending from southern MN into northern WI and MI, in an area of veered 850 mb winds providing a feed of elevated instability. This activity should transition to surface based during the day as heating occurs to the south of the boundary, with area of damaging wind potential.

Additional storms likely to develop during the afternoon farther southwest along the front, where moderate instability and marginal shear will exist. Some clusters of storms may produce damaging wind gusts, and isolated marginal hail may occur.

Central Plains

Weak height falls may occur late in the day into the northern and central Plains as a weak disturbance moves across the northern Rockies. Low pressure is likely to develop into western KS, with weak lee troughing into eastern WY. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures, sufficient moisture and east/northeast surface winds suggest a corridor of afternoon storms over the from eastern WY into CO, with 30 kt effective shear supporting areas of hail and locally damaging gusts. Some of this activity may cluster and move into NE and KS overnight, possibly linking with other storms as they propagate southwestward along the boundary in eastern to southern NE. Area of damaging wind gusts appear most likely.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys, and over parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071853

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys, and over parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Thursday night.

Central Plains

Modest 20-30 kt westerlies will exist across the High Plains, with the stronger wind speeds from MT into ND. Temperatures aloft will remain seasonably cool with -8 to -10 C from CO into MT. Storms are forecast to develop over eastern WY and CO after 21Z near the Front Range where heating will be strong, and spread across western NE, KS, and the OK Panhandle late. An MCS may develop into KS, where stronger instability will persist. Large hail appears probable with the initial activity, before transitioning to mainly damaging wind. The steep lapse rates aloft will support robust storms propagating into the backed boundary layer easterlies.

MO eastward across IL, IN, KY

Persistent west to southwest winds near 850 mb will maintain a theta-e plume as a weak upper trough moves across the region. Early day storms are possible moving out of KS, and some reorganization is possible as the air mass destabilizes with locally damaging gusts. Afternoon activity is also expected from lower MI into northern IL, and this may increase in coverage overnight across IL and IN, perhaps into KY. Shear will be marginal in all areas, with a moist and unstable air mass. Predictability is low for this setup, but a large area of at least isolated severe gust potential is evident.

Parts of the Mid Atlantic

A low-amplitude feature aloft with 35 kt midlevel winds is forecast to move across the Appalachians and into VA/NC area during the day. Meanwhile, a surface trough will deepen during the afternoon with a moist air mass contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. The increased winds and deep shear may aid storm longevity somewhat, with cells or clusters developing and moving quickly southeast across the area. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, but storms coinciding with peak heating may yield a few severe wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070906 SPC AC 070906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend. It appears likely that this will continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week, as an evolving larger-scale trough begins to dig across and southeast of Hudson Bay. While there appears relatively small spread within and among the various model output concerning this larger-scale evolution, there is considerable spread concerning the migration of one particularly notable short wave trough around the periphery of the ridge.

Of particular concern, it appears probable that a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air will advect along the southern fringe of a belt of intensifying flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. As it does, coupled with low-level moistening, this type of regime could support the periodic evolution of organizing clusters, potentially including one or two potentially long-lived, accompanied by swaths of damaging surface gusts.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from near and north of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early next week. However, due to lingering uncertainty with the synoptic developments, and the generally low predictability of these mesoscale systems, in this type of regime at this extended range, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent. However, depending on model trends, this could change in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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