Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 081203

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains.

Eastern CO into Western NE/KS

Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

Northwest AR

A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into northwest AR before weakening later today.

Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle

A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

Eastern KS

A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds.

Southern IL/Western KY

An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080546

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA…NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night.

At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.

### Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley

A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the western Dakotas.

Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells, which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment. Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10% unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode.

At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.

### Central Plains

Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS, perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.

### Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley

A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Summary

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 080722

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA…MUCH OF WISCONSIN…CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA…AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

Synopsis

The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains.

### Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower Missouri Valley

A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level shear is forecast.

Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds.

A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080845 SPC AC 080845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday

An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.

Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night.

At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday.

A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary.

Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast.

Day 5/Friday

A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update.

Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

### Day 6/Saturday

The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low.

### Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday

The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 8

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Tuesday, June 9

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 45%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, June 10

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Thursday, June 11

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Friday, June 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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