Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, March 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the Gulf coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 30%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111958
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the Gulf coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
20z update
Storm coverage has been a bit more limited compared to earlier expectations for the OH Valley into the Appalachians, though widely scattered storms persist in an environment with relatively straight hodographs and weak-moderate buoyancy. Some tornado/wind threat persists with perhaps a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes in PA where storms interact with a diffuse north-south baroclinic zone.
Otherwise, storm clusters/line segments are more concentrated across middle TN and extreme southeast TX. The TN storms will pose mainly a wind/marginal hail threat for the next few hours, while the southeast TX storms will spread eastward with some uptick in the wind/tornado threat overnight as the upstream midlevel trough begins to accelerate eastward. A separate/small area with some wind/hail threat will be associated with the midlevel cold core later this afternoon across interior southeast TX.
..Thompson.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening
A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over the upper MS Valley. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into OH/western PA/WV as of midday. Clouds/convection have been prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas immediately south of this morning convection. Additional thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this evening. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening.
Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight
Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss. Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss. Though regional soundings are limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in advance of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer southwesterly shear, largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also possible. Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm mergers into the band of storms. Otherwise, wind damage will be the main threat with the line segments through tonight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, March 12
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111722
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Synopsis
A strong synoptic cold front is evident in latest surface observations pushing east/southeast across the OH Valley and lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly focused along the front across the lower MS Valley and Southeast today/tonight, and will likely be still ongoing by 12 UTC Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will become increasingly confined to the FL peninsula by the evening hours as the front moves off shore.
Florida Panhandle into central Georgia
Strong (40-50 knot) deep-layer wind shear will likely be in place across far southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle at the start of the forecast period. While buoyancy will be marginal, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible within a convective band based on latest HREF/REFS ensemble output. A steady weakening trend is expected through the day as the band drifts into an environment with poor lapse rates over the FL peninsula/southeast GA, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible during the 12-16 UTC period.
Carolinas
Heating ahead of the approaching cold front will likely support SBCAPE values of around 500 J/kg across the central to coastal Carolinas by mid-afternoon. Meager buoyancy/lapse rates will generally modulate convective intensity as thunderstorms develop along the front. However, 40-50 knot flow near the top of the boundary layer and around 40 knots of 0-3 km BWD may support loosely organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic damaging wind gusts before the front pushes off the coast.
Northern Plains
Sporadic lightning flashes appear likely during the late afternoon hours amid low-level heating under a pocket of cold temperatures aloft associated with a robust clipper low. Strengthening winds within the lowest 0.5-1 km may support very localized stronger gusts, but confidence in a more robust severe threat remains limited.
..Moore.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, March 13
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111917
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
Synopsis
A cold front currently pushing across the Ohio Valley and lower MS Valley will migrate off the East Coast and down the FL peninsula through Thursday before stalling over southern FL early Friday morning. A dry/cool air mass overspreading much of the CONUS in the wake of this front will mitigate thunderstorm potential for most areas aside from the southern FL peninsula. Although lapse rates will be very marginal, rich low-level moisture coupled with negligible capping should yield a thermodynamic environment supportive of deep convection. 20-30 knot flow above 6 km may support some degree of storm organization, but very weak low-level winds/convergence should generally limit storm coverage and modulate overall convective intensity.
..Moore.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, March 14
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, March 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, March 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, March 17
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, March 18
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Saturday, March 14 | potential too low |
| Day 5 | Sunday, March 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Monday, March 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Tuesday, March 17 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Wednesday, March 18 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
Days 4-6/Sat-Mon
An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.
This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.
Days 7-8/Tue-Wed
An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.
..Leitman.. 03/11/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, March 11
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 30%
- Thursday, March 12
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, March 13
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, March 14
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, March 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, March 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, March 17
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, March 18
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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