Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Sunday, November 23
Outlook Summary
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231253
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX.
### SUMMARY
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
West TX
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Monday, November 24
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds are anticipated.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230652
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds are anticipated.
Synopsis
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast Monday morning will lift north through the day.
East Texas to southern Arkansas
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector. This should result in scattered supercell development within the open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet (40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong) could occur.
A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, November 25
Outlook Summary
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Tuesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230827
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
### SUMMARY
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Tuesday.
Synopsis
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the period.
Southeast
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening. Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.
South Texas
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will likely be the primary threat.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Wednesday, November 26
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, November 27
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, November 28
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, November 29
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, November 30
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Wednesday, November 26 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Thursday, November 27 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Friday, November 28 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Saturday, November 29 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Sunday, November 30 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Sunday, November 23
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: low
- Monday, November 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Tuesday, November 25
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Wednesday, November 26
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, November 27
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Friday, November 28
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Saturday, November 29
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Sunday, November 30
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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