Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, May 14
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141621
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this afternoon and evening.
Central Plains including Kansas
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours as the boundary layer cools.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Friday, May 15
Outlook Summary
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 141720
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Synopsis
A predominantly zonal flow regime aloft will persist over the central U.S. through Friday. An embedded weak upper-level disturbance (currently over the Southwest) will migrate eastward across the central Plains through tomorrow, reaching the mid-MS River Valley by late evening. This flow regime will promote modest deepening of a surface low over western OK/KS through the day with continued northward advection of a seasonally moist air mass to the east of a dryline and ahead of an inverted surface trough across the Plains/upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along these boundaries by late afternoon, likely lasting into the overnight hours for portions of the Lower Missouri River Valley/Midwest.
Lower Missouri River Valley
Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated by late afternoon across central NE along the inverted surface trough where warm conditions on the fringe of returning moisture should yield weakly capped thermodynamic profiles. Stronger mid-level flow across the central Plains will favor higher probabilities for organized convection, including the potential for supercells. However, weak low-level storm-relative winds within a deeply mixed air mass may promote outflow-dominant convection and the potential for relatively quick upscale growth. While discrete modes can be maintained, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong zonal speed shear will promote the potential for large/very large hail.
Regardless, over the past 12-24 hours both deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended towards a more north/northwesterly placement of the inverted trough as well as the zone of convective initiation and downstream storm propagation. Based on these trends, 15% hail and wind probabilities have been shifted northward. Additionally, 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded eastward into portions of the Midwest where strong deep-layer wind shear and elevated buoyancy may maintain convective intensity through the overnight hours.
Southern Plains
Persistent west/southwesterly mid-level flow will favor steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rate advection eastward over the southern Plains through the next 48 hours. Despite dry conditions to the west of the dryline, strong diurnal heating coupled with steep lapse rates should yield deeply-mixed, and nearly uninhibited, profiles by late afternoon. Although buoyancy values will be modest, high-based convection over a very deeply mixed boundary layer may support strong to severe downburst winds. Recent HREF/REFS solutions hint that severe winds associated with high-based convection may develop as far west as west as the OK/TX Panhandles, though considerable spread is noted among deterministic solutions. However, a westward expansion of the 5% wind/Marginal contour was made to account for this potential.
To the east of the dryline, strong capping at the base of the EML will likely limit storm coverage. However, a few recent CAM solutions hint that ascent along the dryline may be sufficient for isolated convection by late afternoon/early evening. 30 knot mid-level flow over the warm sector will support organization of any deep convection that can become sustained, including the potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail.
..Moore.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, May 16
Outlook Summary
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 140745
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
SUMMARY
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be possible.
Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S. on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where severe storm development will be possible.
By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at 00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with storms moving eastward across the region during the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 17
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, May 18
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, May 19
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 20
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 21
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, May 17 | 30% |
| Day 5 | Monday, May 18 | 30% |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, May 19 | 15% |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, May 20 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, May 21 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140901 SPC AC 140901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN…D5/MON
### DISCUSSION
Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the front is substantial at this extended range.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, May 14
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, May 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, May 16
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Sunday, May 17
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Monday, May 18
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Tuesday, May 19
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Wednesday, May 20
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, May 21
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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