Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Tuesday, May 5

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

Northeast TX into the Mid-South

Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists. These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast, particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds would become the primary severe risk.

Lower Great Lakes into northern New England

Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI, along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 6

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050507

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

Synopsis

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent into parts of the southern Appalachians.

Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians

Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail. Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the southern Appalachians.

TX to MS/AL

Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged, favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.

Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the conditional scenario late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050640

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

Gulf coast to SC

A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.

There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of damaging wind.

South TX

Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible. However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward across the region during the morning and maintains capping through the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 8

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 9

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, May 10

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 11

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 5

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, May 6

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 7

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, May 8

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, May 9

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Sunday, May 10

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, May 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, May 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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