Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, July 23

Friday, July 24

Saturday, July 25

Sunday, July 26

Monday, July 27

Tuesday, July 28

Wednesday, July 29

Thursday, July 30

Outlook for Thursday, July 23

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains, interior Northwest, and south Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240051

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains, interior Northwest, and south Texas.

Southwest KS vicinity

Convection may persist through much of the night across parts of western KS, in response to a weak midlevel shortwave trough and strengthening low-level jet. Veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for occasional storm organization, though generally modest buoyancy and a tendency for much of the convection to develop/persist to the cool side of increasing outflow may tend to limit the coverage and magnitude of the severe threat. A narrow corridor near and east of Dodge City appears to have the greatest severe risk through dusk, though isolated severe gusts and hail will continue to be possible across a larger portion of the central/southern High Plains through much of the evening.

Interior Northwest

Strong to locally severe storms remain possible early this evening from eastern OR into southeast WA and western ID. Large-scale forcing is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional storm organization, with a threat isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. The threat should diminish later tonight with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization across the region.

South Texas

Tropical Depression Bertha is centered over the Houston vicinity this evening. A continued weakening trend is expected through the evening (reference NHC advisories for more information). To the west/southwest of Bertha, modestly enhanced midlevel flow persists this evening, per regional VWPs. Convection with locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through dusk, with some threat possibly persisting into late evening into parts of Deep South Texas.

..Dean.. 07/24/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 24

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday, with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into the northern Plains.

Dakotas/Northern Minnesota

Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas. Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.

Storms will continue to spread eastward through the afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

Carolinas… Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231920

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

Synopsis

High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.

Southeastern Arizona

Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona. Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.

Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region

Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong instability is progged to extend across this region, however, warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and overall severe potential in these regions.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 26

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 26	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 26	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 26	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 26	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 26	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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