Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Monday, October 19
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191958
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
20z Update
No Outlook changes are warranted, with incipient thunderstorm development now occurring across southeast Arizona as of 20z. For additional short-term forecast details, see Mesoscale Discussion 2383.
..Guyer.. 10/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026/
Southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico
Generally cloud-free skies are noted late this morning as heating has steadily occurred in the presence of a relatively moist airmass with prevalent 50s F surface dewpoints in lower elevations. Satellite imagery/derived-winds continue to portray a 35-45 kt southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough will continue northeastward today. Modest large-scale ascent related to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid thunderstorm initiation across southeast Arizona this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached.
The boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. This instability coupled with cool mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that develop and spread east-northeastward across southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid-evening with the loss of daytime heating.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Tuesday, October 20
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A few strong storms may affect parts of Arizona late Tuesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191714
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A few strong storms may affect parts of Arizona late Tuesday night.
Synopsis
High pressure will extend from eastern Canada southwestward to the Gulf of America on Tuesday, maintaining stable conditions over most of the central and eastern states on Tuesday. Farther west, a deep upper trough will exist just off the West Coast, with increasing southwest winds aloft from CA into UT and AZ.
Strong daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorms from the Great Basin into AZ, though an inversion above 500 mb should minimize updraft strength.
A greater chance of possibly strong thunderstorms may develop overnight into AZ as temperatures aloft cool, and, winds increase out of the south. This enhanced upslope may support additional storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim, and shear will be stronger at that time. Instability may only be marginally supportive, with the greater risk developing after 12Z Wednesday morning.
..Jewell.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Wednesday, October 21
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe hail, wind and perhaps a brief tornado may occur over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191924
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA…FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe hail, wind and perhaps a brief tornado may occur over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.
Discussion
An upper low will slowly approach CA Wednesday, with strong southwest winds aloft overspreading much of the Great Basin, Lower CO River Valley, AZ and UT. A surface trough will develop during the day from southern CA/southwest AZ into central NV, with gusty south to southeast surface winds aiding boundary-layer mixing, as well as moisture advection across AZ and into southern UT.
Scattered showers and storms may be ongoing over northern AZ Wednesday morning, aided by upslope winds. Further destabilization is likely during the day, with expanding storm coverage overall. Favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt with elongated hodographs will favor a few supercells producing hail. A tornado or two may occur especially over the elevated terrain where LCL heights will be lower.
Instability and placement/timing of the greatest threat area is a bit uncertain, but increased severe probabilities may occur in later updates as the event nears.
..Jewell.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Thursday, October 22
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, October 23
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, October 24
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, October 25
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, October 26
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Thursday, October 22 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Friday, October 23 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Saturday, October 24 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Sunday, October 25 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Monday, October 26 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190830 SPC AC 190830
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend. Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities were not introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Monday, October 19
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Tuesday, October 20
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Wednesday, October 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Thursday, October 22
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, October 23
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Saturday, October 24
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Sunday, October 25
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Monday, October 26
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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