Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, December 25
Outlook Summary
An isolated risk for severe gusts and localized wind damage, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 251244
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
### SUMMARY
An isolated risk for severe gusts and localized wind damage, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today along much of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
California
Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level low over the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving northward along the northern CA and OR coast. An upstream mid-level speed max and associated vorticity max will move cyclonically through the base of the eastern Pacific low/trough and approach San Francisco Bay and northern CA this evening and subsequently move into eastern OR by early Friday morning.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms mainly capable of a severe-wind hazard will potentially continue on an isolated basis this morning from the Central Valley/central coast and perhaps include portions of southern CA. The low CAPE/high shear environment will potentially support strong/locally severe convection contingent on sufficient updraft development. Forecast low-level hodographs will remain sufficiently enlarged to yield a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) area. By this afternoon, model guidance indicates low-level flow will weaken before re-intensifying towards evening in association with the arrival of the next speed max. A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado into tonight.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Friday, December 26
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250656
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night.
Synopsis
A mid-level ridge will move across the central U.S. on Friday, as a trough moves into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day from near the trough in central California eastward into southwest Nevada. Additional thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon across parts of the Intermountain West as surface temperatures warm. A third area with thunderstorm potential will develop in parts of the central Appalachians as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 27
Outlook Summary
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 250815
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday, as a trough moves through the Intermountain West. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Saturday night within anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow from the southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. Additional storms may form along the lower to middle Texas coast.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 28
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, December 29
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 30
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 31
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 1
Outlook Images
any severe potential too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Sunday, December 28 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Monday, December 29 | potential too low |
| Day 6 | Tuesday, December 30 | potential too low |
| Day 7 | Wednesday, December 31 | potential too low |
| Day 8 | Thursday, January 1 | potential too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.
From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, December 25
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Friday, December 26
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 27
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, December 28
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Monday, December 29
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Tuesday, December 30
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Wednesday, December 31
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
- Thursday, January 1
- ANY SEVERE: potential too low
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