Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, May 18

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190049

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI…THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND NORTH FL TO SOUTHEAST GA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning.

01Z Update

Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS. Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level convergence should result in storms further weakening through late evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should remain marginal.

Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast.

..Grams.. 05/19/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181741

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills.

Central into Southern Plains

Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts.

Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent.

Florida

Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible.

Western Nebraska/western South Dakota

The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk.

..Wendt.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Nebraska and Kansas into western Iowa and northwest Missouri Monday afternoon into Monday night. More isolated strong to severe storms may extend into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and southern Wisconsin.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180727

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA…KANSAS…SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Nebraska and Kansas into western Iowa and northwest Missouri Monday afternoon into Monday night. More isolated strong to severe storms may extend into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and southern Wisconsin.

Synopsis

An upper shortwave trough is expected to be located over the Lower MO Valley early Monday. This trough will lift northeast across the upper Great Lakes through Monday night. Meanwhile, a broad area of southwesterly flow will continued across the southern/central Plains east of a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. Deep-layer flow will become more amplified and stronger across the central Plains after 00z, as the western trough ejects east toward the High Plains by early Tuesday.

At the surface, a cold front will be located from the eastern Dakotas into central NE. This front will continue to shift east through the evening before stalling from southern MN into eastern NE and central KS. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will result in a broad area of low to mid 60s F dew points from the Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central/southern Plains.

KS/NE into southwest IA/northwest MO

Large-scale ascent will be nebulous through the afternoon, and capping will likely suppress convection through at least mid-afternoon. Thereafter, vertical shear will increase along with stronger ascent spreading into the Plains during the evening/overnight as the western trough ejects east. Thunderstorm clusters may initiate by early evening, with the potential for MCS development during the nighttime hours. Convective initiation and evolution is a bit uncertain given several rounds of convection expected for portions of the region prior to Monday evening. However, the overall large-scale pattern supports severe convection capable of all hazards into early Tuesday morning.

Lower MO Valley to WI

Convection may be ongoing Monday morning from the MO River into central IA, northward into northern WI. How this convection evolves is a bit uncertain. However, some severe potential appears possible into the afternoon, as at least modest destabilization occurs amid somewhat favorable vertical shear. Hail and strong gusts will be possible with this activity through Monday evening.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180858 SPC AC 180858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley

Medium-range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several cycles in showing a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough ejecting across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone over NE/KS will deepen and track northeast to MN/WI by 06z. As this occurs, a surface cold front will develop east across the region, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan southwestward to northwest TX by Wednesday morning. Across the warm sector, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, aiding in moderate to strong destabilization during the day. Storms will likely develop by early afternoon near the surface low and cold front across western IA southward into eastern KS. The current expectation is that a linear MCS will evolve over IA/MO and shift east through the evening. While damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, large hail and tornadoes also will be possible.

With southward extent into OK and portions of the Ozarks, convective coverage may be less. This area will be further removed from stronger large-scale ascent, and capping may erode less efficiently as a result. Nevertheless, where storms can develop, supercell wind profiles amid a very moist and unstable airmass will support an all-hazards risk.

Day 5/Wed – ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley

Forecast guidance differs quite a bit on Wednesday with regards to the evolving the upper trough/low over the Great Lakes. The surface cold front will likely continue eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley. A moist airmass will be in place, but degree of downstream destabilization ahead of likely ongoing convection Wednesday morning is uncertain.

The front will likely stall across the Mid-South into the southern Plains as upper support moves well north of the region. This could focus severe-thunderstorm potential during the afternoon along the stalled boundary. However, capping may be a concern given weak forcing aloft and a generally low-amplitude upper pattern over the region.

While some severe potential will exist across this broad region, confidence is too low to include a 15 percent area at this time.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Most guidance maintains a mean upper trough over the western U.S. late in the period. An upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Day 6/Thu. A very moist and unstable airmass will already be in place as favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent overspread the region, likely resulting in severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of OK into the ArkLaTex.

By Day 7/Fri, spread among forecast guidance increases considerably and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 22

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180858 SPC AC 180858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley

Medium-range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several cycles in showing a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough ejecting across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone over NE/KS will deepen and track northeast to MN/WI by 06z. As this occurs, a surface cold front will develop east across the region, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan southwestward to northwest TX by Wednesday morning. Across the warm sector, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, aiding in moderate to strong destabilization during the day. Storms will likely develop by early afternoon near the surface low and cold front across western IA southward into eastern KS. The current expectation is that a linear MCS will evolve over IA/MO and shift east through the evening. While damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, large hail and tornadoes also will be possible.

With southward extent into OK and portions of the Ozarks, convective coverage may be less. This area will be further removed from stronger large-scale ascent, and capping may erode less efficiently as a result. Nevertheless, where storms can develop, supercell wind profiles amid a very moist and unstable airmass will support an all-hazards risk.

Day 5/Wed – ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley

Forecast guidance differs quite a bit on Wednesday with regards to the evolving the upper trough/low over the Great Lakes. The surface cold front will likely continue eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley. A moist airmass will be in place, but degree of downstream destabilization ahead of likely ongoing convection Wednesday morning is uncertain.

The front will likely stall across the Mid-South into the southern Plains as upper support moves well north of the region. This could focus severe-thunderstorm potential during the afternoon along the stalled boundary. However, capping may be a concern given weak forcing aloft and a generally low-amplitude upper pattern over the region.

While some severe potential will exist across this broad region, confidence is too low to include a 15 percent area at this time.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Most guidance maintains a mean upper trough over the western U.S. late in the period. An upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Day 6/Thu. A very moist and unstable airmass will already be in place as favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent overspread the region, likely resulting in severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of OK into the ArkLaTex.

By Day 7/Fri, spread among forecast guidance increases considerably and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 23

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180858 SPC AC 180858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley

Medium-range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several cycles in showing a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough ejecting across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone over NE/KS will deepen and track northeast to MN/WI by 06z. As this occurs, a surface cold front will develop east across the region, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan southwestward to northwest TX by Wednesday morning. Across the warm sector, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, aiding in moderate to strong destabilization during the day. Storms will likely develop by early afternoon near the surface low and cold front across western IA southward into eastern KS. The current expectation is that a linear MCS will evolve over IA/MO and shift east through the evening. While damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, large hail and tornadoes also will be possible.

With southward extent into OK and portions of the Ozarks, convective coverage may be less. This area will be further removed from stronger large-scale ascent, and capping may erode less efficiently as a result. Nevertheless, where storms can develop, supercell wind profiles amid a very moist and unstable airmass will support an all-hazards risk.

Day 5/Wed – ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley

Forecast guidance differs quite a bit on Wednesday with regards to the evolving the upper trough/low over the Great Lakes. The surface cold front will likely continue eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley. A moist airmass will be in place, but degree of downstream destabilization ahead of likely ongoing convection Wednesday morning is uncertain.

The front will likely stall across the Mid-South into the southern Plains as upper support moves well north of the region. This could focus severe-thunderstorm potential during the afternoon along the stalled boundary. However, capping may be a concern given weak forcing aloft and a generally low-amplitude upper pattern over the region.

While some severe potential will exist across this broad region, confidence is too low to include a 15 percent area at this time.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Most guidance maintains a mean upper trough over the western U.S. late in the period. An upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Day 6/Thu. A very moist and unstable airmass will already be in place as favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent overspread the region, likely resulting in severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of OK into the ArkLaTex.

By Day 7/Fri, spread among forecast guidance increases considerably and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 24

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180858 SPC AC 180858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley

Medium-range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several cycles in showing a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough ejecting across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone over NE/KS will deepen and track northeast to MN/WI by 06z. As this occurs, a surface cold front will develop east across the region, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan southwestward to northwest TX by Wednesday morning. Across the warm sector, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, aiding in moderate to strong destabilization during the day. Storms will likely develop by early afternoon near the surface low and cold front across western IA southward into eastern KS. The current expectation is that a linear MCS will evolve over IA/MO and shift east through the evening. While damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, large hail and tornadoes also will be possible.

With southward extent into OK and portions of the Ozarks, convective coverage may be less. This area will be further removed from stronger large-scale ascent, and capping may erode less efficiently as a result. Nevertheless, where storms can develop, supercell wind profiles amid a very moist and unstable airmass will support an all-hazards risk.

Day 5/Wed – ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley

Forecast guidance differs quite a bit on Wednesday with regards to the evolving the upper trough/low over the Great Lakes. The surface cold front will likely continue eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley. A moist airmass will be in place, but degree of downstream destabilization ahead of likely ongoing convection Wednesday morning is uncertain.

The front will likely stall across the Mid-South into the southern Plains as upper support moves well north of the region. This could focus severe-thunderstorm potential during the afternoon along the stalled boundary. However, capping may be a concern given weak forcing aloft and a generally low-amplitude upper pattern over the region.

While some severe potential will exist across this broad region, confidence is too low to include a 15 percent area at this time.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Most guidance maintains a mean upper trough over the western U.S. late in the period. An upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Day 6/Thu. A very moist and unstable airmass will already be in place as favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent overspread the region, likely resulting in severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of OK into the ArkLaTex.

By Day 7/Fri, spread among forecast guidance increases considerably and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 25

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180858 SPC AC 180858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley

Medium-range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several cycles in showing a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough ejecting across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone over NE/KS will deepen and track northeast to MN/WI by 06z. As this occurs, a surface cold front will develop east across the region, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan southwestward to northwest TX by Wednesday morning. Across the warm sector, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be widespread, aiding in moderate to strong destabilization during the day. Storms will likely develop by early afternoon near the surface low and cold front across western IA southward into eastern KS. The current expectation is that a linear MCS will evolve over IA/MO and shift east through the evening. While damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, large hail and tornadoes also will be possible.

With southward extent into OK and portions of the Ozarks, convective coverage may be less. This area will be further removed from stronger large-scale ascent, and capping may erode less efficiently as a result. Nevertheless, where storms can develop, supercell wind profiles amid a very moist and unstable airmass will support an all-hazards risk.

Day 5/Wed – ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley

Forecast guidance differs quite a bit on Wednesday with regards to the evolving the upper trough/low over the Great Lakes. The surface cold front will likely continue eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley. A moist airmass will be in place, but degree of downstream destabilization ahead of likely ongoing convection Wednesday morning is uncertain.

The front will likely stall across the Mid-South into the southern Plains as upper support moves well north of the region. This could focus severe-thunderstorm potential during the afternoon along the stalled boundary. However, capping may be a concern given weak forcing aloft and a generally low-amplitude upper pattern over the region.

While some severe potential will exist across this broad region, confidence is too low to include a 15 percent area at this time.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Most guidance maintains a mean upper trough over the western U.S. late in the period. An upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley Day 6/Thu. A very moist and unstable airmass will already be in place as favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent overspread the region, likely resulting in severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of OK into the ArkLaTex.

By Day 7/Fri, spread among forecast guidance increases considerably and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 18

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, May 19

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 30%

Monday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Wednesday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, May 23

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, May 24

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Saturday, May 25

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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