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Outlook for Thursday, July 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 030556

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…PORTIONS OF MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains.

Synopsis

A strong upper-level trough for this time of year will dig into the central Rockies/Plains by early Thursday morning. This trough will slow and intensify across portions of the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys by the afternoon. As this occurs, an upper low will deepen in the upper Midwest. At the surface, a remnant boundary will be positioned roughly from the southern Plains into the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic. 70s F dewpoints will reside south of this boundary. Through the day, a modest surface low is forecast to develop in the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. This will draw at least mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Ongoing convection early Thursday will have an impact on where the most favorable areas for severe weather will be by the afternoon. Convection from Missouri into much of the Ohio Valley will slow the northward return of moisture and leave outflow boundaries. Additional activity seems likely closely tied to the shortwave trough/developing upper low into portions of the Missouri Valley.

Eastern Kansas…northeast Oklahoma…Missouri

Early convection is expected to move out of the region by the afternoon. Strong heating ahead of the cold front that will eventually push into eastern Kansas/Missouri and near whatever composite front/outflow is left from the earlier storms will yield 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be weaker with southern extent, but 40-45 kts is possible in central/southeastern Missouri into southeast Kansas. Mid-level ascent will be quite modest, but storms are expected to develop along the cold front and potentially along the outflow farther east. Initial storms would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. While low-level shear will be weak, a tornado could occur with discrete storms favorably interacting with the outflow boundary in particular. Upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly given the boundary-parallel deep-layer shear along the cold front. Wind damage would become more common as a potential MCS would move into large buoyancy.

Upper Midwest

Uncertainty in the degree of destabilization remains rather high as there will be potential for cloud cover from activity to the west and south. Storm development is most likely to occur along the cold front moving through Iowa given the greater forcing for ascent. Less certain is development into western/central Wisconsin along a weak warm front. Temperatures aloft will support some potential for marginally severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be possible as well, but this, again, will largely depend on how steep low-level lapse rates can become. Though the threat is low and uncertain, a tornado would be possible if sufficient destabilization can occur in Iowa. Low-level shear would be maximized near the surface low, and deep-layer shear across the initiating boundary would mean discrete storms for at least a short duration.

Southern Plains

Strong heating south of the boundary (mid 90s to potentially low 100s F) will promote 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Heating plus convergence along the front give reasonable confidence in widely scattered to scattered storms. Storms will only be modestly organized given the area will be on the extreme southern periphery of stronger mid-level winds. Activity will likely grow upscale and push southward until MLCIN increases. Severe/damaging winds will be the primary concern.

Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic

Convection appears likely to be ongoing along the surface boundary due to modest mid-level ascent and low-level warm advection. South of the boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place. Additional stronger activity will be possible either along the boundary itself or along outflow from earlier storms. Deep-layer shear will be weak except right along/north of the boundary, but a few damaging microbursts will be possible due to the moderate to strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates in cloud-free areas.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 3: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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