Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, September 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180854 SPC AC 180854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Lower-end severe potential should return on D4/Saturday in advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough over the Southwest. A mid-level jetlet, with 500-mb winds from 50-60 kts, is progged to eject across NM as the shortwave trough reaches the Four Corners area. A mesoscale corridor of severe storms might develop Saturday afternoon across a part of eastern NM or Far West TX. The expected buoyancy plume should be modest in amplitude and rather confined spatially owing to mid-level temperatures warmer than -3 C at 500 mb across much of TX.

This shortwave trough may weaken slightly as it progresses towards the central Great Plains on D5/Sunday. But moderate mid-level southwesterlies may overspread a plume of rich low-level moisture arcing to the west-northwest from the Mid/Lower MS Valley. A mesoscale corridor of focused severe potential could develop in parts of KS/NE to western MO.

Predictability for each scenario on D4-5 remains too low to confidently delineate a 15 percent area at these spatiotemporal scales. Larger-scale pattern predictability becomes too low into early next week.

..Grams.. 09/18/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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