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Outlook for Saturday, October 5

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041707

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Saturday evening.

Great Lakes

A potent upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will shift east on Saturday, becoming positioned over the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong 70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the Upper Midwest as the trough shifts east. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will lead to a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across WI/MI by late afternoon/evening. Low-level inhibition will limit surface-based instability, but cool temperatures aloft and increasing midlevel moisture will support MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.

A cold front extending south from a deepening low over Manitoba and western Ontario will shift east across the Upper Midwest during the day and into the evening, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to northern OK by 12z Sunday. A warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough, coupled with increasing instability and moderate vertical shear will support thunderstorm development near the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few organized cells may produce strong gusts and marginal hail across parts of northern WI into the U.P. of MI during the evening, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update.

Gulf Coast

East to northeast low-level flow will persist over the Gulf, where a very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place along the coastal regions from TX eastward across Florida. Sufficient instability will support thunderstorm potential, especially along any sea breeze boundaries where low-level convergence will be enhanced. Overall instability will remain modest, with poor lapse rates forecast and limited vertical shear, precluding severe thunderstorm concerns.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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