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Outlook for Sunday, October 6

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 041903

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity

A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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