Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, October 7

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040834 SPC AC 040834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance continues to show cyclonic flow aloft persisting over the northeast CONUS from D4/Monday into D6/Wednesday before extensive upper ridging over the western and central CONUS builds eastward and displaces the cyclone. Even with this cyclonic flow persisting early next week, much of the low-level moisture will likely be off the Northeast coast by early D4/Monday. Modest low-level moisture will likely linger across much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast for much of the week, with some thunderstorm threat persisting, predominately across the FL Peninsula.

Dry and stable conditions are currently expected elsewhere across the CONUS as upper ridging builds eastward and the continental airmass remains in place.

..Mosier.. 10/04/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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