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Outlook for Wednesday, October 16

Outlook Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 151717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS.

Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast.

Deep South Texas

Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time.

Far south FL and the Keys

Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening.

..Dean.. 10/15/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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