Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, October 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150846 SPC AC 150846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics.

Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2024

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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