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Outlook for Thursday, October 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170837 SPC AC 170837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period.

While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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