Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, October 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180833 SPC AC 180833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

For this coming Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central Plains. Models indicate that a narrow, and increasingly limited, band of moisture will be present ahead of the trough and associated surface front. Though thunderstorms are possible in parts of eastern Kansas with this activity, severe weather potential appears low at this time.

As the central Plains trough moves east, it is expected to lose amplitude and eventually phase with a stronger, broader upper trough moving through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley region around the middle of next week. While models begin to diverge on the upper-level pattern at that time, the general consensus is for a cold font to push into parts of the southern Plains as well as to near the Gulf Coast and off the Atlantic Coast. With moisture ahead of the front still looking limited, severe thunderstorms do not appear probable along the boundary. Thereafter, surface ridging in the eastern third of the CONUS, along with another upper ridge over the Divide, will keep severe weather potential low through at least the end of next week and possibly into next weekend.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

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National Risk Overview

Friday, October 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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