Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, October 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220842 SPC AC 220842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week.

Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8.

..Bentley.. 10/22/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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