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Outlook for Thursday, November 7

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310854 SPC AC 310854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible.

On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2024

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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